022
FXUS65 KVEF 270153
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
655 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated storms across much of the
area today as a potent system moves through. In our southwestern
zones that remain dry, strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph are forecast.
Most of the precipitation and wind activity will wane tonight, with
lingering overnight showers in parts of Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
Counties. Dry and breezy conditions resume tomorrow and persist
through next week as temperatures warm above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...The bulk of today`s precipitation has moved off to the
east into Northern Arizona. What remains is isolated showers and
thunderstorms, which should continue into the evening. The strongest
of these storms have produced frequent lightning, graupel, and brief
heavy rainfall. Most of southern Nevada and southeast California
reported between .1 and .4 inch of precipitation today. Sections of
northwest Arizona and Lincoln County reported between .5 and 1 inch
of rain. Wind Advisories remain in effect for parts of Inyo and San
Bernardino Counties into the evening, but it seems that these will
likely be allowed to expire on time as the system moves east and
winds decrease. Twentyfour hour peak wind gusts of over 40 mph were
reported in the Owens Valley and most of San Bernardino County.
Tomorrow`s weather appears to be overall warmer, dryer, and less
windy compared to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight.

The most active weather of the forecast period will occur over the
next 12-16 hours as impressive trough pushes through the area. As it
does, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
over all but our far southwestern locations. Currently, a band of
showers and a few storms extends from N Mohave County down through S
Clark County and into NE San Bernardino County along the cold front.
The southern edge of this line has shows the most convective
activity, with a few more intense cells and lightning. This will be
an area (E San Bernardino, S Clark, and W Mohave Counties) to watch
for stronger outflow winds, possibly 40-50 mph, as daytime heating
and ongoing gradient winds increase DCAPE values. Behind the front,
anticipate scattered showers and storms to linger throughout the
daylight hours, driven by diurnal heating under the colder air
aloft. These could also contain gusty outflow winds, lightning, and
possibly some small hail. The bulk of the post-frontal activity
should diminish around sunset, but subtle vort maxes wrapping around
the upper-low will keep scattered shower chances around Lincoln,
Clark, and Mohave Counties through the night. In terms of
precipitation amounts, not expecting anything overly impactful.
Chances of seeing 0.50" or more are less than 50% everywhere except
for the high terrain of high terrain of Lincoln, Clark, and northern
Mohave Counties, all of which can handle rain amounts of that
magnitude. The only area of potential concern is Death Valley, where
chances of 0.50" in 6 hours is 30-40% on some of the higher terrain.
This has potential to cause minor flooding in and around the park,
given how sensitive the area is to rainfall. Up on Mt. Charleston,
snow levels around 7,500 ft mean that some minor snow accumulations
are possible. Latest NBM gives Kyle and Lee Canyons a 50% chance of
a dusting to 2", though the recent warmth may make it hard for snow
to stick on the roads, at least initially.

On the southwestern fringes of this system, westerly winds have been
cranking throughout the morning hours. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph have
been reported from the southern Owens Valley down to Twentynine
Palms, along with periods of reduced visibility due to blowing dust.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Owens Valley until 8 PM
this evening, while the advisory for most of our San Bernardino
zones expires at 11 PM. Expect gusts of 45-60 mph to continue during
this time, particularly from Barstow down to the Twentynine Palms
area.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday.

By tomorrow afternoon, today`s system will be ejecting into the
central plains, leaving us under drier northwesterly flow aloft.
Other than some 10% rain chances in far eastern Mohave County,
Saturday is shaping up to be a pleasant day. Highs will be a few
degrees below normal, with most of the area in the 70s and low 80s,
but northwest winds will be breezy at 15-25 mph. Dry conditions
prevail through the rest of the weekend and next week as upper-level
flow gradually becomes more zonal. This keeps the area breezy and
allows temperatures to steadily rise. By mid-week, highs are
forecast to be around 5 degrees above normal for early May.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Variable gusty outflow winds, rain,
lightning, and lower CIGS at the terminal area will continue for
much of the rest of the afternoon. CIGS will be at there lowest and
around 5-6 kft thru 22Z this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will become more scattered after 22Z but will remain through the
evening hours. Vicinity showers and lower CIGS will dissipate during
the overnight hours with winds shifting back to the northwest, a
direction which they will favor through Saturday afternoon. Winds
will decrease and be more diurnally driven Saturday evening and
through the day on Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds at KDAG will favor a westerly direction with 30
to 40 knot wind gusts persisting through the evening hours. A front
continues to push through southern Nevada, driving a band of showers
and thunderstorms through the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley through the afternoon hours. 5 to 7 kft CIGS, variable gusty
outflow winds, rain, and lightning will be the primary impacts
associated with these storms. The Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will be
impacted by these showers and thunderstorms through 22Z, whereas the
Colorado River Valley sites will see convection through 01Z this
afternoon. Behind this main band, vicinity showers will continue to
linger around the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF
sites throughout the evening hours. Winds at these sites will
decrease overnight and favor a more west-northwesterly direction.
Northwest will be favored Saturday afternoon then becoming more
diurnally driven Saturday evening through Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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