Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000 FXUS65 KABQ 091726 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1126 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Moisture behind a backdoor cold front will fuel a round of thunderstorms across northeast NM this afternoon and evening, with impacts likely at KLVS and KTCC. MVFR conditions are likely with storms and large hail is a potential hazard. Deterioration is forecast to IFR overnight at both KLVS and KTCC as the backdoor front progresses westward and results in a lower-end gusty east canyon wind at KABQ. MVFR cigs may develop at KSAF early Monday morning, but forecast confidence was too low to include in TAF. A few high-based showers across western and central NM this afternoon will create strong/erratic wind gusts. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021... .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a moist backdoor cold front that entered the eastern plains overnight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and tonight along and east of the northern and central mountains. A few storms may turn severe this afternoon and early evening. The chance of precipitation will then continue over north central and eastern areas through mid week with portions of northeast New Mexico near the Colorado border potentially accumulating over 1 inch of rainfall. Meanwhile, gusty and dry conditions will result in fire weather concerns from the central and south central mountains westward Monday. After a cool start to the week high temperatures will climb above normal during the latter half of the week when there will be a chance of thunderstorms, especially Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND MONDAY)... A back door cold front that pushed southwest thru eastern NM this morning will trend high temps 10-20F cooler today with much higher low level moisture. Winds will veer to the southeast thru the day while an upper wave approaches from the northwest. Orographic lift and sfc convergence along the Sangre de Cristo Mts beneath an 80 kt speed max will allow SHRA/TS to fire up by late morning then move eastward into a marginally unstable airmass over northeast NM. Most CAMs, HREF, and NBM solutions show discrete storm cells crossing the I-25 corridor btwn KRTN and KLVS by 2pm before merging into linear segments and clusters over northeast NM thru Sunday evening. SPC continues to advertise a marginal risk for severe storms. Rain and storms will linger tonight across northeast NM as a second, deeper push of low level moisture builds into eastern NM while a stronger 95 kt speed max moves thru southern CO. Storms will transition to widespread light rain and low clouds w/ patchy fog across much of eastern NM by Monday morning. Meanwhile, central and western NM will remain under the influence of dry westerly flow with late day breezes today. Just enough mid level moisture may sneak into the northwest mts and northwest plateau for a few more gusty virga showers this afternoon. Southwest winds will increase Monday over the western 2/3rds of NM as a sfc low deepens over the eastern plains with deep mixing of even drier mid level air arriving from the southwest. Low clouds and any precip will exit most of eastern NM by late Monday afternoon before returning Monday night. Guyer LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... A longwave trough slowly crossing the northern and central Rockies with multiple shortwaves rotating through it, and a shallow/moist quasi-stationary front hung up on the terrain from north to south across NM`s eastern plains, will continue to produce rain showers, thunderstorms and high terrain snow showers mainly over north central and eastern areas Monday night through mid week. There will probably also be a nightly recurrence of low clouds and fog on the east side of the front. The front is forecast to push into central parts of the state with the potential for a moderately gusty east canyon wind in the central valley Tuesday night. This will result in showers and thunderstorms as far west as the central mountain chain Tuesday night and potentially also Wednesday. The multi-day precipitation event today through Wednesday evening may produce rain amounts from 0.25-1.25" across northeast NM, with amounts under a quarter inch further south along and east of the central mountain chain. Snow amounts should only reach a few inches and favor the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. After high temperatures varying from near normal in the west to as much as 22 degrees below normal in the east on Tuesday, readings will trend warmer during the latter half of the week with highs reaching above normal central and west Thursday, then a few to 10 degrees above normal areawide Friday and Saturday. Models suggest a moist south and southeasterly low-level return flow will develop during the latter half of the work week with a chance for thunderstorms over the southern tier of mountains Thursday afternoon, then over the Sangre de Cristos and much of the forecast area along and south of I-40 on Friday. Models differ on how quickly dry air will move into the state from the west Friday night and Saturday as a disturbance crosses the central Rockies. If the system is slow enough as the GFS suggests, the disturbance may trigger a lot of convection from the central mountain chain eastward Saturday afternoon. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the Sangre de Cristo Mts today then move east into northeast NM thru tonight. Some of these storms will be strong with locally heavy rain, large hail, and damaging winds. Farther west, dry and warm conditions will continue today with late day westerly breezes. Critical fire weather will return to parts of central and western NM Monday as an upper level wave moves north of the area and spreads strong southwest winds and very low humidity into the area. Far eastern NM will remain cooler with clouds and higher humidity. This overall pattern will continue Wednesday and Thursday with marginally critical conditions across the west and higher humidity with a few storms across the east. A ridge of high pressure will try to return to the region by late week with high-based showers and storms possible for a larger part of the state along with much warmer temps. Guyer && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A back door front entering eastern NM overnight will veer winds from northeast to east-southeast thru Sunday morning. This front will set the stage for low level convergence and upslope flow into the Sangre de Cristo Mts while an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain aft 17Z then move east across northeast NM thru 01Z. A few of these storms will become strong to severe w/ large hail and damaging winds possible east of a line from KRTN to KLVS. Western and central NM will remain relatively dry and breezy w/ increasing mid level cloud cover and perhaps some gusty virga showers aft 22Z. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the following zones... NMZ105-106-109. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.