Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000 FXUS65 KABQ 161205 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 505 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Northwest winds will continue across the western two-thirds of the state while east to northeast winds continue east. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs will continue through northeast NM through afternoon while isold -SHSNs develop over the northern mts during the mts. The clouds and snow showers gradually dissipate after sunset with VFR condtions expected at all terminals overnight. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Light snow will continue over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the high plains of northeast New Mexico today. Monitor the latest road conditions as slick travel will likely continue in many areas that picked up snowfall the past 24 hours. High temperatures today will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal on frigid northwest winds. Bitter cold conditions will persist through Tuesday then temperatures will slowly warm a couple degrees each day through Friday. The weekend looks even warmer but with increasing winds. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... As areas of light snow gradually come to an end across far northeast NM this morning, colder air will continues to spill in from the north during the day. A trailing short-wave trough in the northwest flow aloft will result in convective snow showers over the northern mountains where a trace to perhaps an inch or two are possibly by sunset. High temperatures today will range from 5 to as much as 25 degrees colder than Sunday`s readings. Brisk northwest winds will make it feel even colder. The coldest night of the fall and meteorological winter so far is likely tonight/Tuesday morning as very dry air moves in, winds relax, and temperatures plummet. Many locations with fresh snow on the ground in the northern mountains will likely drop below the 0F mark to as much as -20F. Temperatures on Tuesday warm a few degrees most areas but remain well below average high temperatures for mid December. 33 LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Temperatures will remain very cold Tuesday night with another round of strong radiational cooling. A batch of thick high clouds will then move east across the state Wednesday ahead of a fast-moving upper trough approaching from the Great Basin. High temps will be cold again with filtered sunshine. The upper trough swings through the central Rockies Thursday with breezy winds for eastern NM and a reinforcing shot of cold air across the north. The 00Z NAEFS shows an anomalously strong 582dm H5 ridge sliding east across northern Mexico later in the week. Temps will warm above normal in this pattern with continued breezes over eastern NM through Sunday. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Cold temperatures and a very dry airmass will be the main weather story during the next couple of days. A strong ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday, resulting in poor ventilation rates areawide. Weather prediction models bring a dry upper-level trough through the state Thursday, helping to increase vent rates for central areas of the state Thursday afternoon. Another ridge is forecast to build in from the west Friday and Saturday. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the following zones... NMZ213>215-228-230. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for the following zones... NMZ227. && $$

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