Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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669 FXUS65 KABQ 210831 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 231 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon with greater coverage compared to Tuesday. The greatest chances will be east of the Continental Divide, however the best shot for heavy rainfall will be over eastern New Mexico. Drier air will move into the western half of New Mexico Thursday and Friday while isolated storms still impact eastern New Mexico. Record heat will return to the entire region Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Deeper moisture shifted west to the Cont Divide overnight. The 00Z PWAT at KABQ was 0.83" which is normal for mid to late August. Moist instability will peak today within central and eastern NM where an axis of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall is expected. Favored areas will stretch from the Gila region northeast across the Rio Grande Valley into northeastern NM. Storm motion will be slow to the southeast today. Convective mode will transition from discrete terrain-driven cells to clusters and line segments as activity moves into eastern NM. The 00Z HREF indicates storms will linger well into the evening from the ABQ metro area eastward across the eastern plains. Drier air will move back into the western half of NM Thursday and Friday as a 700-500mb high center takes shape over southern Arizona. Very dry air currently in place over the Great Basin will shift southeastward into NM on the northern periphery of the high center. Convective activity will be mostly shut down west of the central mt chain. Isolated storms are still expected along and east of the central mt chain Thursday and Friday where enough low level moisture remains in place to continue recycling mode. Another exasperating, untimely, grueling heat wave will redevelop Friday through early next week as a potent upper level ridge sprawls eastward from the Great Basin. 700mb temps warm to near +20C which is near 3 stdev above climatology. Strong warm advection along with unseasonably dry air will lead to record high temperatures for many areas, especially the period from Sunday to Tuesday. The ABQ Sunport has a decent shot at 100F early next week, which will be the 2nd latest 100F reading on record. More heat advisories are possible for Chaves County where highs around 105F are expected again for several days. Roswell is also looking more likely to end up with the hottest August on record. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered thunderstorm coverage is forecast for this afternoon except over west-central and northwest portions of the state where dry air is forecast to win out. Drier air continues pushing in from the west on Thursday and Friday, limiting afternoon convection to isolated along and east of the central mountain chain. A hot and dry weekend is in store areawide with a backdoor cold front expected to bring a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the east Tuesday and to most areas Wednesday into late next week. Near record to record heat is forecast for much of the state early next week ahead of the backdoor front. 33 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Thunderstorm coverage will increase most areas Wednesday with the exception of the northwest plateau and KFMN where dry mid-level air wins out. Storm motion will once again be light and variable. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty outflow winds will accompany the stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 96 60 96 58 / 5 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 48 89 47 / 40 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 89 56 89 57 / 40 30 10 5 Gallup.......................... 94 53 93 54 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 51 87 52 / 40 20 5 0 Grants.......................... 89 51 90 52 / 30 20 5 0 Quemado......................... 87 55 87 56 / 50 20 10 5 Datil........................... 85 55 85 56 / 70 20 10 5 Glenwood........................ 96 63 95 64 / 50 20 10 10 Chama........................... 82 48 81 47 / 50 20 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 83 61 / 50 40 30 5 Pecos........................... 84 57 84 58 / 60 60 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 52 80 52 / 50 40 40 20 Red River....................... 75 44 75 43 / 70 40 50 20 Angel Fire...................... 76 38 76 36 / 60 40 50 20 Taos............................ 86 50 86 49 / 50 30 30 20 Mora............................ 80 51 80 51 / 60 60 40 20 Espanola........................ 90 58 90 58 / 30 40 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 86 60 86 61 / 50 50 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 57 91 58 / 40 40 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 65 93 66 / 40 30 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 65 94 65 / 30 30 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 62 96 62 / 30 30 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 64 94 65 / 30 30 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 95 59 95 60 / 30 30 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 95 63 95 64 / 30 30 5 5 Socorro......................... 95 64 96 65 / 50 40 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 59 86 59 / 50 50 10 5 Tijeras......................... 88 60 89 61 / 50 50 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 51 90 52 / 50 60 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 87 57 87 57 / 60 60 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 87 59 / 60 60 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 89 64 89 65 / 50 60 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 80 56 79 57 / 60 60 50 10 Capulin......................... 86 55 85 56 / 60 50 50 30 Raton........................... 89 52 88 52 / 60 40 40 30 Springer........................ 88 52 88 52 / 60 30 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 84 53 / 70 60 30 20 Clayton......................... 92 61 88 60 / 40 60 30 30 Roy............................. 89 59 87 59 / 50 50 30 30 Conchas......................... 97 64 95 63 / 50 60 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 95 63 / 50 70 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 65 96 64 / 30 60 20 30 Clovis.......................... 94 65 92 65 / 20 40 20 20 Portales........................ 96 67 95 66 / 10 40 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 94 65 93 64 / 20 60 20 20 Roswell......................... 99 71 97 70 / 10 30 20 20 Picacho......................... 89 62 88 62 / 30 40 40 20 Elk............................. 86 61 85 61 / 30 40 50 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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