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FXAK68 PAFC 180127
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to move over Southcentral
Alaska the rest of today and through tonight. Depending on cloud
cover, fog and low stratus may form across the area. Wednesday
morning, as the ridge axis shifts east, Southcentral will enter
southwesterly flow aloft. Weak waves embedded within the flow will
cause light snow to fall across the area Wednesday. 1 to 2 inches
is expected across Anchorage with 2 to 4 inches along the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides and Matanuska Valley. Little
accumulation is expected along the western portion of the Susitna
Valley and the Kenai Peninsula, except for Turnagain Pass and
Portage/Whittier where 1 to 2 inches is possible. Along Broad Pass
and eastern portions of the Susitna Valley, including Talkeetna,
expect around 2 to 4 inches. The "snow winners" out of this system
will be for locations in the eastern Copper River Basin where
snow looks to linger through Thursday morning. Totals from
McCarthy to Chitina and up to Slana will range from 3 to 6 inches
of snow. On the backside of this system, freezing drizzle is
possible across Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and along the
interior and Western Kenai Peninsula Wednesday evening and night
as low-level moisture remains with the dendritic growth zone
drying out.

Attention quickly shifts to a broad Arctic trough and associated
strong cold air advection dropping southeastward out of Siberia
and over Southcentral starting Thursday. Gap winds through all
coastal passages and through the favored terrain will increase
beginning Thursday and peak in strength Friday morning during the
strongest cold air advection. There are still questions and some
uncertainty about how strong the winds might be. One thing that
does stand out is that despite the strong cold air advection, flow
aloft and surface pressure gradients do not support an impactful
wind event for the Matanuska Valley. Also of note is that any snow
that falls Wednesday will most likely be transportable, unless it
is glazed over by any freezing drizzle Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Therefore, blowing snow could become an issue,
Thursday into Friday; especially across Whittier and Thompson
Pass. Temperatures will remain somewhat elevated with the winds
blowing, despite the strong cold air advection. However, when
winds diminish this weekend, temperatures will drop quickly.

Looking into the marine forecast, sustained storm-force winds
with hurricane-force gusts are likely through the Barren Islands
and across Augustine southward through Shelikof Strait Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. These strong winds in conjunction
with the cold Arctic air will combine to produce extreme vessel
icing at rates of 4 cm or greater from Augustine southward through
Shelikof Strait. The greatest chance for extreme vessel icing in
Shelikof Strait is along the immediate coast of the Alaska
Peninsula. As winds diminish on Saturday, icing rates will
decrease. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for both the
Shelikof Strait marine zone as well as for the zone west of the
Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay to bring awareness to the
extreme freezing spray/extreme vessel icing concerns for Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. Stay tuned to the forecast as
finer details are ironed out on the magnitude of gap winds for
Thursday and Friday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

Active weather is underway across Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutians. GOES satellite imagery shows a front draped across the
region from the Kuskokwim southwest through near the Pribilofs
Islands and to near Adak Island. This front is currently bringing
snow and gusty winds to the Kuskokwim Delta, where approximately 2
to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected. The primary hazard
with this event is the accompanying gusty winds to the snow, where
visibilities may be reduced to a half mile or less at times.

This front will sag southeastward overnight, with precipitation
coming to an end for the Kuskokwim by the early morning and precip
beginning across greater Bristol Bay. Warm air ahead of this front
may result in a brief period of rain or mixed precipitation before a
combination of wet-bulbing and cold air advection quickly
transitions any liquid hydrometeors to snow. Accumulation across
Bristol Bay will be limited, generally less than inch, with slightly
higher totals towards Lake Iliamna up through Port Alsworth and the
Lake Clark region.

A second shortwave trough following on the heels of this system will
bring about another chance of snow showers to portions of Southwest
AK late Wednesday into early Thursday along a reinforcing cold
front. Snow showers will begin late Wednesday across the Kuskokwim
Delta before moving farther southeast overnight. These showers
should be rather quick-moving and short in duration, but may drop a
quick dusting to inch of snowfall, in addition to gusty winds.
Quick, spotty, though significant visibility reductions can be
expected with these squalls. A few showers may make it downstream
of the Ahklun-Kuskokwim Mountains, but will be more isolated in
nature and produce little snowfall accumulation.

Thursday and Friday will will be characterized by 1) very cold,
mostly dry, and breezy conditions across Southwest AK and the AK
Peninsula and 2) mild, wet, and windy conditions cross the
Aleutians, especially farther west along the chain. Southwest AK
will see temperatures drop to 10 to 20 degrees below climatological
average, with highs generally in the single digits by Friday and
lows back to below zero.

-Brown

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An upper level trough moves south into the Gulf of Alaska,
transitioning the pattern to a more amplified setup. Ridging
builds over the Bering while a deeper trough settles over the
Gulf, allowing an Arctic airmass to spread across Southwest and
into Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions trend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing skies combined with cold air in place will
support strong radiational cooling and colder overnight
temperatures.

By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances begin
returning to western Alaska, with timing still uncertain.

The pattern turns more unsettled as the next system approaches
from the west. Increasing clouds are expected with a chance of
snow returning to portions of Southcentral Alaska. Confidence in
timing and snowfall amounts remain low this far out.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail
through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are possible beginning mid-morning Wednesday as
light snow develops over the terminal.

&&

$$