Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 032209
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Another late winter/early spring storm will bring a period of very
active weather for the entire Northland and West Coast beginning
today and lasting through Monday. Expect mixed rain and snow
along parts of the southwest coast with accumulating snowfall for
the rest of the Mainland as a strong storm and the associated warm
front moves inland. Colder air and blowing snow will impact large
portions of the Mainland as a strong cold front moves east Sunday.
Moreover, a coastal surge will impact the West Coast with the
possibility of water moving overtop the ice and then inland during
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Upper Levels...

An elongating shortwave upper level trough is moving across the
Interior toward the Yukon Territory this afternoon. Light snow
associated with this system impacting the Tanana Valley north to
the Hills around Fairbanks, and will continue to shift east by
this evening. The bigger story is out west where shortwave ridging
is building over the Eastern Bering and Southwest Mainland ahead
of a potent warm front currently over northern Bering Sea. Weak
onshore flow ahead of this strong front is already bringing snow
and poor weather conditons to the West Coast.

Model Discussion...

The numerical weather models are in generally good agreement with
a long duration storm expected to impact then entire state
beginning this evening and lasting through Monday. The storm will
come in phases as a warm front moves east through tomorrow, then a
powerful cold front moves across the Interior and to the North
Slope Sunday and Sunday night. The biggest discrepancy continues
to be the low position on Saturday night and Sunday morning as it
moves inland around the Seward Peninsula. The GFS remains a
northerly and weaker outlier while the Canadian remains the
furthest south, NAM and ECMWF somewhere in the middle. This
forecast favors the NAM as it continues to show very strong 40-50
MPH core of strong winds moving through Norton Sound and the
northern Yukon Delta coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Light snowfall will taper off to flurries this evening as the system
responsible for it moves into the Yukon. A very brief break in
weather will give way to more snow chances Saturday through Monday
as a strong coastal storm moves inland. This storm will occur in
waves as the warm front brings snow Saturday with a cold front
moving through on Sunday, which will be accompanied by gusty
southwest winds Sunday and Monday. Expect accumulations to range
from 5-12", heaviest snow amounts in the hills and higher
elevation Interior mountains. Blowing and drifting snow is likely
along the highway summits beginning Saturday night and Sunday as
colder air moves back in.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A series of weather systems moving across the region will bring
more snow today and through the weekend, with the heaviest snow
once again occurring on the southern facing slopes of the Brooks
Range. Gusty south winds develop in the passes of the eastern
Brooks Range once again on Saturday, with gusts to 40 mph
possible. A winter weather advisory has been issued for blowing
snow in the passes of the eastern Brooks Range. Snow will increase
on Sunday as a front moves across the region through Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior....

Very active weather is in store for the coast and Western Interior
as a strong warm front moves inland and brings heavy accumulating
snow to inland areas and upslope regions along the Seward
Peninsula and Noatak/Selawik Valleys. Some rain will mix in across
the Norton Sound region into the Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon
Delta. The warm front and first round of heavy precipitation will
occur tonight with a continued period of onshore gusty winds
creating hazardous weather conditions with blowing and drifting
snow lasting through Saturday night along with heavy accumulating
snow over higher terrain. Saturday night and Sunday, a strong cold
front will move onshore and rapidly move inland, bringing dropping
temperatures along with more accumulating and blowing snow,
especially across Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta where possible
blizzard like conditions are likely.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

The strong weather system that will affect the west coast this
weekend has the potential to cause elevated water levels along the
coast. As water levels rise there is the potential to push water
on top of the ice through open leads and along the coast where
shorefast ice is breaking up. Areas around Norton Sound and along
the Yukon Delta will be most susceptible as the low moves inland.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ221-AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher APR 20



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