Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 260938

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 AM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Synopsis...Warm Dry and Smokey in the interior and quiet across
the West Coast and North Slope for the next couple of days. Hot
and dry weather will continue to aid forest fire growth and smoke
production throughout the Interior. A weather front on the Arctic
Coast will be pulling out to the east this morning and will bring
and end to the dense fog over the eastern North Slope Coast later
this morning. High pressure will continue to build over the
Interior of Alaska. A weather front will brush the West Coast with
some isolated showers today and Thursday. Temperatures will be
hot and the airmass dry in the Interior with little if any
thunderstorm activity.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some stratus remains over the
eastern coast and along the north slopes of the Brooks Range.
The Dense Fog along the eastern coast will diminish later this
morning as a front pushes offshore out over the Beaufort Sea.
Partly cloudy skies the next couple days with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be warming and with winds swinging around to
east to southeast. Winds generally less than 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet, but a low in the Bering
Sea will be spinning some decaying fronts into the area that will
bring some showers to the Lower Yukon Delta, St Lawrence Island,
and possibly the Bering Strait today and again on Thursday as
another front approaches. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny inland
with mostly cloudy conditions in the Lower Yukon Delta and over
the Coastal areas. Temperatures will be warming over the next
couple days, but will cool in the Lower Yukon Delta starting
Friday. Winds generally offshore along the coast less than 15 mph,
while inland winds light and variable. Areas of smoke will linger
over the Western Interior as wildfires continue to thrive under
the hot and dry conditions.

Central and Eastern Interior...Hot, Dry and Smokey conditions will
continue today and Thursday as a very warm upper level high
pressure ridge strengthens over the area. Thunderstorms activity
is not expected with the exception of a small area south and east
of Tok this afternoon and evening where isolated thunderstorms
will be possible. The hot and dry conditions will allow wildfires
to thrive producing more smoke that will linger over much of the
Interior with very light winds expected. Visibility has been
reduced to 3 miles at times in Fairbanks with smoke from local
fires. Only miner improvements are expected with slight wind
shifts today and Thursday before a front moving through the area
late Thursday and Friday switches winds to west.

Models...26/002Z models initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. The
models remain in good agreement through Friday but begin to
display considerable spread into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


.FIRE WEATHER...Near Red Flag conditions for most of the Interior
Today and Thursday as temperatures will continue to warm with
highs in the interior rising into the 70s to mid 80s for much of
the area. Relative Humidity values falling into the teens to lower
20s percent range for a few areas, but generally range between 25
and 35 percent during the afternoons. Only fair overnight recovery
for relative humidity is expected. Very limited to No thunderstorm
activity is expected Today and Thursday. Winds will generally be
light and variable across the area with some locally seeing north
and northeast winds to 10 mph.


.HYDROLOGY...Glacially fed rivers continue to rise slowly with
the melting level at 9000 feet or above. The remainder of the
rivers and streams will be slowly falling.


Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.


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