Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 272146
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
146 PM AKDT Sat May 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Flooding is still the main concern with ice jam flooding along
with snowmelt flooding occuring along parts of the Lower Yukon as
well as across related tributaries including the Innoko River.
Flooding is also still occurring upriver at Stevens Village and
Fort Yukon. Rising waters will also occur over the E Interior
rivers and streams. See hydro section below for more info.


Weather wise, today will be a nice day for the Interior then
another low will move into the E Interior and bring very heavy
rain to the Fortymile Uplands and headwaters of the Chena River.
Rain will spread as far west as the Minto Flats by Monday with
rain overspreading the E Alaska Range too. Much cooler temps for
the eastern Interior will then occur through midweek. A cool
trough will bring rain and some mixed snow showers to the West
Coast Mon and Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a very large Bering upper low centered in-between the
Pribilof Islands and Nunivak Island, with the center analyzed
around 522 dam. There is a 533 dam secondary low moving into the N
Gulf Coast with the surface low around 990 mb over Kodiak Island.
There is a departing shortwave trough shifting northeast through
the NW Territories. Over the Mainland, southeast flow and weak
ripples of energy are moving through the flow. Clearing has
developed over the E Interior with cross-barrier flow.

Model Discussion...
Models are in good agreement with the general pattern but diverge
with a wet low moving into the E Interior Sunday through Tuesday.
The GFS was discarded as it is an outlier with a weaker and
farther south solution, compared to the NAM/EC/Canadian, all of
which put out over 3+ inches of rainfall over parts the Fortymile
Highlands and Chena River headwaters area. This forecast will
increase rain chances from Sun through Tue for most of the
Interior from Fairbanks east.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A nice day today will gradually shift to cooler and cloudier and
eventually wetter Sunday evening through Tuesday. A low
originating from the Gulf but shifting west from the Yukon will
bring in increasing heavy rain showers across the Fortymile into
the White Mtns and eventually into the lower elevations Sun
afternoon. Heavy rainfall will setup from the E Alaska Range to
the Chena headwaters where 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will occur
into Tuesday. Localized areas over the Fortymile Uplands may see
4 inches of rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
Sunday afternoon/early evening and again Monday afternoon over
the Yukon Flats and into the S Brooks Range. Monday and Tuesday
look quite cool with many areas over the E Interior struggling to
get into the 60s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers today mainly over the coast as a low over the Bristol Bay
area weakens in place. A second low forms over the W Interior
from the Yukon Valley to the Kusko Valley, with heavier showers
and an embedded thunderstorm Sunday. More Interior showers Monday,
with a cold front approaching the West Coast bringing a cold rain
to that area, along with snow showers over the Bering Coast and
Seward Pen by Mon evening. Both Monday and Tuesday are much cooler
with showers/rain moving inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Onshore flow will keep normal cool and cloudy and foggy conditions
over the Arctic Coast tonight with a switch to light southwest
winds over the W Arctic Sunday night through Monday. This may
erode some of the low stratus but will bring in increasing chances
for showers as an upper low shifts east. Showers will occur each
day for the Brooks Range with iso thunderstorms by Monday for the
eastern half of the Brooks.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A large arctic trough digs into the NW arctic Tuesday and shifts
east across the Brooks Range and even into the Interior Wednesday
through Thursday, with snow showers over the North Slope and NW
Arctic. Cooler temps persist through Thursday and then dramatic
warming commences Friday and Sat as the trough splits and ridging
aloft rebuilds into the Mainland for the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong easterly wave will bring heavy rainfall to the E
Interior Sunday through tuesday with significant wetting rains.
Wetting rains will push as far west as Fairbanks, with some
isolated wet thunder chances over most of the Interior Sunday.
Cool and wetter weather develops Mainland wide Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood warnings remain in effect for Fort Yukon and Stevens Village
for snowmelt flooding, although there will be a gradual downtrend
in waters through this weekend with water levels upriver falling.

Flood warning has been issued for for reported ice jam flooding
along the Yukon Delta mouth across Emmonak, with the flood warning
also including Alakanuk. A flood advisory has been issued for the
remaining Lower Yukon from Grayling to the delta for a
combination of ice jam and snowmelt flooding which will be in
place well into next week.

Heavy rainfall will occur across the Fortymile Uplands with 1-3
inches of rainfall Sunday through Tuesday. Expect rapid rises in
the Chena, Chatanika, Goodpaster, and Fortymile, and Salcha. Heavy
rainfall in the E Alaska Range may result in rapid stream rises
as well.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...FLood Warning for AKZ214
     Flood Warning for AKZ220
     Flood Advisory for AKZ214
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher


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