346
FXAK69 PAFG 081344
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
544 AM AKDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Generally quiet and seasonable weather conditions will
prevail across Northern Alaska through the short term forecast
period. The Interior can expect showers with highs in the mid 50s
to low 60s each day through Wednesday. On the West Coast, water
levels will remain elevated up to 2 feet above the normal high
tide line behind yesterday`s front and through Tuesday as another
similar but weaker system arrives Monday. The North Slope will
see mainly dry conditions east of Utqiagvik and above normal
temperatures with highs in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis...Aloft at 500 mb, a shortwave trough lies north to south
across the Alcan Border. Weak ridging follows this feature to the
west over the central Interior and North Slope with southwest
flow from the Bering Sea into the Western Interior that is driven
by a 533 dam low over eastern Siberia. By Monday morning, the
southwest flow will be over all of Northern Alaska, though will be
rather weak. An upper level high will build off the eastern Arctic
coast beginning Monday as the low currently over eastern Siberia
parks over Wrangel Island and strengthens through Wednesday. At
the surface, a front lies from Ambler to Galena to McGrath and
will move east today to the central Interior before falling apart
overnight Sunday night. A 993 mb low will move to the Kuskokwim
Delta on Tuesday afternoon. This will bring more rainfall to the
Western Interior. High pressure will build over the Copper River
Basin Tuesday night, which may bring southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range passes.

Forecast models are in good agreement on the overall pattern
through the short term forecast period, and are in good agreement
on precipitation through Tuesday. Beginning Tuesday night, the NAM
is much wetter in the Western Interior than the GFS and ECMWF. We
will use a blend of models for this forecast package and make
minimal changes from the inherited package, however we will not
use the NAM as part of the blend for precipitation after Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Patchy fog this morning near
Fairbanks will quickly lift as the front that impacted the West
Coast yesterday arrives. This will bring rainfall for much of
Sunday especially from Eielson Air Force Base to the north and
west. Showers will linger mainly southeast of Fairbanks on
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Southerly gap winds through Alaska
Range passes may pick up Tuesday as high pressure builds over the
Copper Basin. Highs will be mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s with
lows in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Winds along the coast will
remain out of the southwest behind yesterday`s front which will
keep water levels elevated up to 2 feet above the normal high tide
line. A much weaker frontal system with a similar track will
bring rain and some wind to the coast on Monday, and this will
keep water levels elevated through Tuesday. The Western Interior
can expect showers, decreasing overnight tonight, followed by dry
conditions on Monday, then more steady rainfall Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will be in the 50s except in the upper 40s along
the coast. Lows will be in the 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Conditions will be rather
consistent through Wednesday with showers in the Brooks Range and
from Utqiagvik west with dry conditions elsewhere. There will be
areas of fog and stratus along the coast. Highs will be above
normal and mostly in the 50s with 40s in the Brooks Range. Lows
will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another low pressure
system will likely impact the West Coast on Monday. This will keep
water levels slightly elevated through Tuesday, though water
levels look to generally be lower than what is expected from the
storm today and tomorrow.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...Models are in above
average agreement for the extended forecast period and indicate
troughing and showers continuing across the area through Thursday,
then a weak and transient upper level ridge builds toward the end
of the week. Models are in good agreement that a strong front
bringing wind and rain will arrive at the West Coast on Saturday.
Winds look to be mostly offshore at this time, so not expecting
much of a coastal flood threat from this one. Temperatures across
the area will gradually trend cooler.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

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