Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 221203
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
403 AM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Generally quiet weather wise, but Flood Advisories
and Watches are in effect. Breakup continues from the Seward
Peninsula north while an ice jam remains in place on the Yukon
River upstream of Grayling. Snowmelt is bringing high water levels
to the Central and Eastern Interior. Spring in the Arctic means
low clouds, areas of fog, and some flurries along the coast, while
inland some clearing skies. Dry conditions continue south of the
Brooks Range in the inland areas, but temperatures will be cooling
a few degrees through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...22/00Z solutions are in good agreement for the short
term and into the midrange before some significant differences
show up. As usual the solutions seem to handle the ridging well,
but disagree on developing a trough over the AlCan late it the
week. Thermal trough will weaken and be pushed south the next
couple days, then move north Tuesday into the Central and Eastern
Interior. Even with slightly cooler temperatures convective
potential in the Eastern Interior along the AlCan border may
produce some isolated thunderstorm activity. Not much
precipitation across the area so will be using a blend of
solutions for the short term, but increase the probabilities
southeast of Delta Junction. Temperatures in general look good,
so not making many changes to the current database.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends northwest over the Southeast
Panhandle to a 561 dam high over the Copper River Basin to a 563
mb high over Nome. Ridging extends north from the high over Nome
over the Western Arctic, and west to the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Broad troughing to the southwest of the ridging as a 541 dam low
has moved over Sand Point, and a 537 dam low is 300 nm south of
Nikolski. To the northeast of the ridging a 543 dam low is over
the Northwest Territories with a 501 dam low high in the Canadian
Archipelago. A shortwave is digging southwest into the Northeast
Arctic. By Monday morning that shortwave will move south with a
544 dam low developing over the AlCan Border east of Chalkyitsik
as the ridging is pinched off with ridging over the Western
Interior extending west to 544 dam high over Northern Kamchatka.
Weak ridging will be pushing northeast over the Eastern Arctic
Coast. Broad troughing to the southwest will shift to the east as
a 545 dam low moves to 200 nm south of Kodiak City, and a 539 dam
low moves to 300 nm south of Unalaska. A shortwave will move into
the Western Arctic near the Dateline. Tuesday morning ridging will
persist west of Fairbanks with ridging extended northeast over
the Eastern Brooks Range. The low over the AlCan will be over
Dawson YT at 542 dam with a shortwave extending southwest over
Prince William Sound. Troughing will persist south of the Alaska
Peninsula pushing east over the Gulf of Alaska. The shortwave near
the Dateline will move east to lie over the 150W with a 534 dam
low 400 nm north of Oliktok Point with the shortwave extending
south to Anaktuvuk Pass. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies from Eagle
to Point Lay this morning with temperatures near +9C to the
southwest and -9C to the northeast. Temperatures cool by Monday
morning as the 0C isotherm is pushed south to lie from Chicken to
Tanana to Wainwright with temperatures to +6C to the southwest.
Temperatures will continue to cool through Tuesday as the low
aloft moves over the AlCan.

Surface...A 1034 mb high has moved to 100 nm north of Utqiagvik
with high pressure pushing south into the Interior. Broad low
pressure to the southwest with a 998 mb low near Unalaska, a 1004
mb low south of the Gulf of Alaska, and leeside troughing north
of the Alaska Range that extends to a 1014 mb low in the Upper
Tanana Valley. Monday morning the high in the Arctic will be in
MacKenzie Bay at 1030 mb, while low pressure will push north into
the Lower Yukon Delta and Central and Eastern Interior as a 1011
mb low moves near McGrath, and the low in the Upper Tanana Valley
strengthens to 1010 mb. Broad low pressure will persist across the
Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. Tuesday morning the high in the
Arctic will move east and a 1010 mb low will develop in Prudhoe
Bay. Weak high pressure will hold over the Brooks Range, while
weak low pressure will persist south of the Brooks Range with a
1010 mb low in the Lower Yukon Flats and a 1012 mb low will be
near Whitehorse YT.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Along the coast cloudy with areas
of fog and flurries. Inland cloudy with flurries this morning,
then some clearing skies late today. Northeast to east winds 5 to
20 mph. Highs today in the 20s and 30s. Lows tonight in the
teens to lower 20s above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Partly cloudy. Winds northeast
to 20 mph will become variable to 10 mph late today. High
temperatures today will range from the lower 40s on the Chukchi
Sea coast and St Lawrence Island to the lower 70s in the Middle
Yukon Valley. Lows temperatures tonight will range from the upper
20s to upper 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increased clouds and slightly
cooler temperatures. Chance of showers southeast of Delta Junction
and along the AlCan Border as upper level shortwave moves into
that area. Slight chance of thunderstorms along the AlCan Border.
Winds northeast gusting to 25 mph in the Upper Yukon Flats, while
the remainder of the area will be variable to 10 mph. High
temperatures today in the upper 50s to near 70. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the upper 20s to around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging will be building back
over the area with warming temperatures for the remainder of the
week for areas south of the Brooks Range. Spring continues in the
Arctic with stratus, fog, and flurries along the coast with some
clearing inland and in the Brooks Range.

&&

.Fire Weather...Temperatures will be a little cooler through
Tuesday, but conditions will remain dry as relative humidity
values fall into the teens and 20s in most inland areas south of
the Brooks Range. Strongest winds will be in the Upper Yukon Flats
with winds gusting to around 25 mph Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...Flood Advisory continues for the Chena River, while
Flood Watches are in effect for the Buckland area, The Yukon River
above Grayling, the Innoko River near Shageluk, the Fortymile
Rivers, and areas along the Salcha and Goodpaster Rivers.
Temperatures cooler the next couple days will help slow the high
elevation snowmelt, but it will warm back up starting Wednesday.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisory for AKZ222.

Flood Watch for AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 22


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