Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 031038
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 AM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A persistent heavy rain band will shift from the Central Interior
and Western Alaska Range, where 2-5" of rain was deposited, back
over the Eastern Interior and the Tanana Valley this morning and
afternoon. Rain will be moderate and will have a minor impact on
current river levels. This front will also bring rain to the North
Slope through tonight before the whole thing lifts northeast into
the Arctic. Weak ridging in its wake will leave normal August
weather with no significant weather vents on the horizon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An arcing bent-back front remains across the Central Interior,
with a closed low circulation drifting across the Yukon Flats.
There is another low circulation across the Gulf of Alaska and a
shortwave trough over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Heavy rain
continues across portions of the Central Interior and Western
Alaska Range, and this will lift northeast today as the
aforementioned closed lows eventually merge into one trough and
move northeast as well. A stationary front remains along the North
Slope, and this is supporting warm advection rain from the Haul
Road eastward.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain will move east across the Tanana Valley and White Mountains,
mainly in the morning then tapering off in the afternoon. Quick
clearing behind this low moving toward the ALCAN will allow for
showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms from the Central
Interior to the White Mountains. Tuesday and Wednesday, weak flow
will develop, but with more sunshine, expect slightly warmer
temps and continued chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Given the moist atmospheric profiles, any showers will be capable
of heavy downpours.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Continued quiet weather with showers with a threat for an
afternoon isolated thunderstorm from Galena south through
Wednesday. The northerly coastal gradient will remain strong
through today then slacken off tonight. Next big weather maker is
a Bering front moving in to the southwest Coast Wednesday night
and Thursday bringing extensive rainfall.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Extensive rain across the Central and Eastern Brooks/Slope will
continue through the day then exit into the Canadian Arctic
tonight. Besides a few isolated showers across the Northwest
Arctic, things dry out Tuesday and Wednesday where extensive
stratus and fog will be the main weather story.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rains will spread back eastward across the Eastern
Interior and Tanana Valley/White Mountains today. Showers and
isolated thunder possible elsewhere, and this general pattern will
continue the next couple days as weak ridging builds in and temps
warm back to normal over much of the Interior. Rh values will also
fall but will remain above 40 percent as no dry air masses are
going to be anywhere near the state.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rain this morning will impact the Chena and
Salcha Basins as the remnants of heavy rain over the Alaska Range
and Central Interior shift east again. Up to an additional inch of
rain is likely, so sharp rises are expected, but there is
decreasing threats for any significant river rises and flooding in
the Interior. High streams near Denali should come down quickly
today as heavy rains end by this morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch for AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER AUG 20



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