Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 211136

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Rain coverage in the central and eastern Interior continuing to
increase this morning. A deepening surface low pressure in the
Yukon will move north today, with rain continuing in the central
and eastern Interior into the overnight hours. Winds will be
increasing this morning in the Interior with gusts to 25 mph
through this afternoon. Temperatures will be falling as well, with
a transition from rain to snow expected in the evening above
2,000 feet in the hills and summits north and east of Fairbanks.
This low pressure system will move north bringing snow through the
passes and higher elevations in the central and eastern Brooks
Range through tonight as well as rain and snow along the North
Slope into Sunday.

Aloft, a longwave trough continues to persist off the northwest
Arctic Coast this morning. A shortwave trough extending from this
longwave into the Gulf of Alaska will move to the southeast coast
of Alaska by tomorrow morning. A second shortwave over the eastern
Bering Sea will move into Norton Sound by tomorrow morning and
then lift north over the Brooks Range. Overall, the upper level
pattern will continue to bring unsettled and cooler conditions to
northern Alaska through the weekend, with the longwave trough
extending from Siberia and southeast through the Gulf of Alaska
going into early next week.

At the surface, low pressure moving north over the Yukon Territory
will enhance west flow across the Interior today. Rain associated
with this feature will increase in coverage throughout the morning
and eventually lift north with the low pressure to the Brooks
Range and then to the North Slope. The low pressure will merge
into a broad low pressure area and enhance the front stretching
off the northwest Arctic Coast and east into Canada by tomorrow
morning. This feature will slowly dissipate going into next week.
Low pressure in the eastern Bering Sea will move east into Norton
Sound by tomorrow morning. This feature will bring rain to the
West Coast into Norton Sound. By the early week, rainy conditions
will begin to lessen across the state.

For the extended period, there will be a strong low pressure
system developing from remnants of current typhoon Tapah moving
into the Bering Sea by Tuesday afternoon. As this system
approaches the West Coast, conditions will need to be monitored as
the details are uncertain for potential high water and strong
winds. Current model solutions have this low pressure system
differing by over 30 mb between the GFS and ECMWF. However, the
current range of possibilities for the lowest pressure at peak
intensity is ranging between a 940-970 mb low Wednesday morning in
the central Bering Sea.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rain increasing in coverage and
intensity this morning. As the low pressure in the Yukon moves
north, rain will begin to dissipate overnight tonight. Total
liquid precipitation expected to range from 0.25-0.50 inches. As
the low pressure lifts north, winds will increase out of the west
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Temperatures will be cooling and
snow levels dropping during the afternoon and evening hours.
Therefore, rain transitioning to snow expected for the higher
terrain above 2,000 feet, particularly for the Steese, Elliott,
Parks, and Richardson Highways this afternoon and evening.
Localized amounts between 1-2 inches possible, with 4-6 inches in
the Alaska Range above 3,000 feet through tonight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...The weather front associated with
the low pressure in the Yukon will move north bringing rain and
snow in the passes and higher elevations of the Brooks Range this
afternoon. Localized snow amounts of 1-2 inches expected for the
central and eastern Brooks Range. The weather front will continue
to move north, bringing a rain and snow mix to the North Slope
from Wainwright and east beginning tonight. Between 0.25-0.50
inches of liquid precipitation expected through tomorrow night.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure in the eastern
Bering Sea will move east to the West Coast this morning. Rain
associated with this feature is expected for the West Coast south
of Norton Sound. There will be an isolated chance for a
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon after the front moves
inland. Chance for rain along the West Coast and through the
Bering Strait will linger through the rest of the weekend as
remnants of this low pressure remains over the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Expect slight rises in the Interior rivers through the weekend due
to widespread 0.25-0.50 inches of rain from now through tonight.
Snow in the Alaska Range will lessen the impact of runoff into
rivers in Denali National Park. No flooding issues expected going
into next week.


Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PK505.


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