Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 172016
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1216 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern continues over northern Alaska. A progressive
westerly flow pattern will persist through Friday with a ridge
building over mainland Alaska into the weekend. Westerly flow
will keep the Northern Interior, Brooks Range, North Slope, and
Northwest Alaska wet through late this week, while a ridge
building over the southern interior will produce a warming and
drying trend over the weekend.

Aloft at 500 mb a weak ridge over the west coast of Alaska will
quickly shift east to the Canadian Border Wednesday as a 525 DAM
low 300 nm northwest of Wrangel Island deepens and swings rapidly
to the east to be over northwestern Alaska Wednesday afternoon
and 300 nm north of Demarcation Point Thursday morning. The upper
level low will help develop a strong surface low pressures system
that will impact northwestern Alaska beginning tonight and
continuing into Wednesday. As the upper level low moves north and
east Thursday and Friday an upper level ridge builds north out of
the northern pacific over southern Alaska and southern interior.
The ridge continues to build into the weekend.

On the surface a 990 mb low currently located 50 nm southeast of
Wrangel Island will deepen to 988 mb as it moves rapidly north and
east tonight to be located 250 nm northwest of Point Barrow
Wednesday morning and 300 nm northeast of Point Barrow Wednesday
evening. Strong southwest winds behind a warm front moving
rapidly northeast along the northwest coast of Alaska, and the
Chukchi Sea coastline north of Kivalina will produce high surf
conditions as well as strong winds beginning this evening and
continuing into Wednesday. The fast moving storm combined with
relatively short fetch will limit potential for coastal flooding
but will still produce high surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast north
of Cape Krusenstern and along the northwest coast from Point Lay
to Wainwright where High Surf Advisories are currently in effect.
Wind gusts to 50 mph are expected in these areas beginning
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. The low will also produce
rain over the western half of the North Slope and western Brooks
range tonight and over the rest if the North Slope on Thursday.
Between one quarter and one half inch of rain is expected to fall
over the western Brooks Range and western north Slope.

As the low continue to move north and east over the high arctic a
ridge will build into the southern interior beginning Wednesday
and will build into the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 60s
and lower 70s Wednesday will build into the middle 70s by Friday.
Minimum relative humidity levels will drop into the 30s and 40s
over the western interior Wednesday and into the middle 20s and
lower 30s over the central and eastern interior wednesday with the
lowest values expected in the eastern interior. Temperatures will
rise into the middle 70s on Thursday over the central and eastern
interior but minimum relative humidity levels will level out in
the 30s Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to remain light
through th interior through the weekend through the interior and
will help limit fire weather concerns.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
High surf expected between Point Lay and Wainwright tonight
through Wednesday, and from Kivalina and Point Hope tonight
through Wednesday. Due to short fetch length and duration, and
the peak winds occuring in the warm sector, expect surge heights
to remain in the 2-3 feet range. This should cause high surf but
no flooding. The area north of Wainwright is mainly ice covered
which will inhibit and high surf from occuring.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier conditions will develop over the southern
interior beginning Wednesday and continue into the weekend. Winds
are expected to remain light through the period and will limit
Red Flag Potential through the weekend. On Wednesday minimum RH
levels will drop into the upper 40 and 30s over the western
interior while values drop into the middle 20s to lower 30s over
the central and eastern Interior. The driest values expected over
the eastern Interior. Temperatures continue to rise into the
upper 60s and lower 70s Wednesday and into the lower to middle 70s
on Thursday in the central and eastern interior, however humidity
levels also rising into the 30s and 40s over the central Interior
and remaining in the 30s over the eastern Interior. Winds are
expected to remain light both Wednesday and Thursday over the
interior. Similar conditions are expected Friday. Temperatures
are expected to remain in the mid 70s while minimum relative
humidity levels are expected to slowly drop over the weekend.
Winds are expected to remain light over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 18



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