Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 062351
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system moving north through the Bering Sea will bring
strong winds, snow and blowing snow to areas along the west coast.
We expect strong southerly gap winds to develop in the Alaska
Range this evening. A strong Tanana Valley Jet is also expected
to develop tonight. Cloud cover will increase early Saturday
across the Interior causing temperatures to warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the models are in decent out through the weekend. There
are still some minor differences with the low that will move
northwest through the Bering Sea over the next 36 hours; however,
there is better agreement than this time yesterday. The models do
diverge some for early next week, especially with how they handle
the low moving through the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: Cold temperatures will persist
tonight across much of the Interior. The cold temperatures will
likely result in some ice fog in the Yukon Flats where the
temperatures are expected to be coldest. Clouds will move in early
Saturday morning. This will allow temperatures to warm up during
the day tomorrow across much of the Interior. A warming trend
will continue on Sunday and Monday. Southerly flow will cause
temperatures to warm aloft on Saturday. This may lead to sharper
inversions over some valleys. Overnight we expect southerly gap
winds to pick up in the passes of the Alaska Range. We expect
gusts up to 50 mph on the north side of Alaska Range passes, with
the strongest winds expected Saturday afternoon. The ongoing Wind
Advisory for zone 226 looks to be in good shape. Elsewhere across
the Interior, easterly winds will pick up this evening. This will
be especially noticeable in areas that see the Tanana Valley Jet
winds, where Delta Junction could see wind gusts around 50 mph on
Saturday. We opted to issue a Wind Advisory for zone 223 in
anticipation of the Tanana Valley Jet winds. A front moving to
the north will bring snow to areas north of Fairbanks on Sunday. A
stronger wind event looks to be on tap for Monday, with some
models hinting at warning level winds in the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather system moving north
along the coast will bing a period of active weather to the west
coast over the next 36 hours. Easterly winds will begin to pick up
this evening along the coast as a front moves north. A 966 mb low
will move into Bristol Bay early Saturday morning. This low will
reach Nunivak Island by noon Saturday. The low will weaken as it
tracks to the northwest Saturday afternoon and evening. The low
is expected to pass over St. Lawrence Island Saturday night.
Precipitation will reach the Yukon Delta and the lower Yukon
Valley this evening, the the snowfall spreading north tonight and
Saturday. Snow and blowing snow will reduce the visibility along
the coast to under a mile at times on Saturday. Winter Weather
Advisories are out for areas along the coast due to the expected
blowing snow and strong winds. St. Lawrence Island is currently
under a Winter Storm Warning. I did opt to upgrade zone 209 to a
Blizzard Warning in anticipation of this event. 4 to 7 inches of
snow is expected in the Yukon Delta and in the Yukon Valley. 1 to
3 inches of snow expected with this system elsewhere. The wind
directions with this system are not favorable for any big rises
in water levels this weekend; however minor rises of around a
foot above normal high tide levels are possible on Sunday
afternoon along the west coast. We will have to continue to
monitor any changes in track of this system, especially if the
system slows down as this could affect the water level forecast.
Another area of low pressure moving through the Bering Sea on
Monday. This system will bring another round of strong winds, snow
and blowing snow; however, at the moment there is still some
model disagreement with the exact track of the low. Thus, at the
moment, there is still some uncertainty in the timing and
placement of the weather associated with this system.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Easterly winds will increase
overnight as the pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea tightens
up. Southerly gap winds will also develop tonight through Brooks
Range passes. Areas to the west of Wainwright will see the
strongest easterly winds on Saturday, with gusts up to 40 mph.
This will be combined with falling snow resulting in blowing snow
that will reduce the visibility to one half mile or less at
times. The strongest winds will push offshore early Sunday
morning. Another round of strong easterly winds are expected late
Monday, with strong southerly gap winds in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...An area of low pressure
moving through the Bering Sea may bring elevated water levels to
St. Lawrence Island and Diomede on Monday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ209.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.
&&

$$

DEC 19


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