035
FXAK69 PAFG 121126
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be comparable to yesterday across the state.
Numerous showers will develop over the Eastern Interior with
scattered showers in the Central Interior today. There is also a
slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. A Flood Watch
continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream
from Circle. A strong front could impact the west coast on Tuesday
with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Winter Storm
Watches have been issued.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Weak troughing over the North Slope will continue through Monday
night before brief ridging moves in from the west. Ridging in the
Interior will continue today, but a few shortwaves moving north
from the Gulf of Alaska will make for some more active weather.
Relatively weak ridging over the West Coast will continue through
Monday, but a few shortwaves move through from the north. These
won`t be too impactful besides sparking isolated rain showers and
the potential for a storm. A pattern change occurs on Tuesday
with a strong upper low moving through the Bering and near the
Bering Strait.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through
Monday. High temperatures will be in the 50s in the Interior
while the coast hangs around the low to mid 30s. Scattered to
numerous showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm from the
western Alaska Range to McGrath, north to Tanana today. There is
a shortwave trough dropping south from the Chukchi Sea on Monday
bringing a chance for showers and an isolated storm south and east
of Huslia. A strong front will begin to impact the West Coast on
Tuesday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation
type, track and coastal flooding but there are Winter Storm
Watches issued for the Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island
for snow and blowing snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
This afternoon will be comparable in terms of temperatures in the
Central Interior. Rain has already begun from Northway to Tok and
this will lead to cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior as
rain continues through the evening hours. Rainfall totals will be
relatively heavy with 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected from Tok north
and east. There is a chance for higher amounts in persistent
heavier downpours, especially near Tok. In the Central Interior,
we`ll monitor higher terrain rain showers with a nonzero chance
for a storm. With north-northeast flow, a few of these may try to
get into the Fairbanks Bowl this evening. Otherwise, chances for
showers and an isolated storm increases on Monday as upper level
energy moves through from the west. Scattered to numerous rain
showers look likely to develop during the afternoon and continue
into the overnight hours before diminishing in coverage. Tuesday
looks to be much drier in the Central Interior with isolated
showers remaining in the Eastern Interior. Temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 50s across the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few
snow showers possible as well. Expect high temperatures in the
20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early
next week. The weather looks to remain pretty mundane through
Monday afternoon. Then Monday evening, we are monitoring a Bering
Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the West Coast. There
may be some winter weather impacts to the Chukchi Sea Coast,
especially Point Hope. Exact impacts are still uncertain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water
levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday
morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it
may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the
ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push
ashore as well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated
thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the a
Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. 00z models are in better
agreement but still uncertain with the exact track. Though it does
seem more likely that a low will be moving through the Bering and
then turning north near the Bering Strait. There is a potential
for strong southerly winds along the West Coast with snow/mixed
precipitation, blowing snow and elevated surf along the coast.

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 in the Central Interior
with highs around 50 in the Eastern Interior. Areas of rain are
likely in the Eastern Interior today with wetting rain likely from
Delta Junction north and east. Expect rainfall totals from Tok
north and east around 0.25 to 0.50 inches with lesser amounts
towards Delta Junction. Scattered showers will develop tomorrow
afternoon in the Eastern Interior with more numerous showers in
the Central Interior. Wetting rains with these showers are likely,
especially in the higher terrain. Rainfall totals in the
Fairbanks Bowl will lie around 0.05 to 0.10 inches with slightly
higher amounts near 0.15 inches in the Eastern Interior.


.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. A
persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. The jam
has been in place for 6 days without any significant changes.
The braided channels near Circle continue to melt slowly. Chunk
ice and small pans can easily pass by Circle and across the south
bends. A large section of intact ice 4 miles long remains above
Circle. When that breaks up, there is a small chance it could
cause an ice jam and minor flooding. The gradual breakup trend is
expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up
over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Bianco