931
FXAK67 PAJK 262224
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
224 PM AKDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SHORT TERM... The current ridge in the gulf will continue to push
inland as a front moves in from the west. The first impacts with
the front will bring strong breezes to the northern gulf this
afternoon into the morning. The front is then expected to reach
the inside waters early Saturday morning increasing winds in Lynn
Canal into strong breezes to 20-25kts. Other inner channels will
also see a wind increase to southerly moderate to fresh breezes.
As this front reaches the panhandle it will dissipate leaving
likely chances of precipitation throughout the period.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through midweek/...

Quick hits:
-Lingering onshore flow will keep lower chances (20-50%) of rain
 in the forecast Sunday.
-Approaching 500mb low and associated surface low will cause
 increasing chances of rain from north to south with high chances
 (>80%) of rain for most of SE AK by Tuesday.
-Strongest winds on Sunday will be in northern Lynn Canal at
 around 15 to 20 knots. Lighter wind speeds elsewhere.
-The approaching system will cause marine wind speeds to increase
 everywhere late Monday into Tuesday.

Details: 500mb low with associated surface low over central Alaska
will slide southeast early next week. This will be the source of the
next round of rain and wind that will impact the area late Monday
into Wednesday.

Overall, 24 hour rainfall amounts aren`t looking all that impressive
with the hardest hit areas, the northern half of the panhandle,
getting around a half inch to one inch of rain Tuesday into
Wednesday. The higher percentiles, 75th to 90th, get closer to 1.5
to 2 inches. So higher amounts of rain are possible and will be
watched closely over the weekend.

As this next system approaches, wind speed will increase to upwards
of 15 to 20 knots. Higher wind speeds are expected in the gulf,
upwards of 25 knots, and in Lynn Canal, upwards of 20 to 30 knots.
The higher wind speeds in Lynn Canal are based on forecasted
pressure differences between Skagway and Juneau, where the
forecasted pressure difference is around -2.5mb, which historically
produces winds around 20 to 30 knots in July.

&&

.AVIATION... Currently conditions remain in VFR with a few
locations holding on to lower ceilings of around 2000ft. Late tonight
into tomorrow ceilings and visibilities are expected to drop with
a front that will create MVFR and IFR conditions.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...EAB

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