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FXAK67 PAJK 071421
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
621 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Chances of rain showers remain through Saturday as a
decaying low in the gulf continues to bring moisture into SE AK,
though a drier weather pattern is in store in the future.

As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery indicate
continued shower activity across the panhandle, driven by
continued onshore flow from a low over the northern gulf. The
corresponding upper level trough will begin shifting SE through
the day on Saturday, slowly bringing its surface reflection with
it. This will lead to diminishing chances of rain showers across
the southern panhandle through the day, with some breaks in the
cloud deck possible, especially later in the day and through the
evening/overnight timeframe. This, along with diminishing wind
speeds and an atmosphere at or nearly saturated up to the boundary
level, will set up a situation conducive to the development of
radiation fog across the southern half of the area Saturday night.
Chances of rain will also taper off across the northern half of
the are, though not until later Saturday night.

Primary changes to the forecast were to diminish pop chances
across the southern half of the area for much of Saturday given
the lack of moisture support in the southern panhandle. Also
added fog chances to the southern half of the area and to the
Yakutat area overnight given the clearing skies and light winds.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Wednesday night / System exiting the
panhandle  Sunday so showers tapering off to chance PoP level. A
short trying break will spread across the Northeast gulf coast On
Sunday, and this will spread to northern portion of the gulf. PoP
values for the southern half were kept at Chance level headed to
Monday but, could be lower than that.

Next system starts to move across the northern gulf, late Tuesday to
Thursday, depending on model solution. In coordinating with WPC Wed
may be have outlook headline for heavier rains.  Am watching the
start of the shift in the mid range that this could pattern, may
shift south of the area. For the time frame still have the rain in
in midweek.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...Conditions will primarily be
within the MVFR / IFR flight categories during the first half of
the period over much of the Panhandle as a weak front continues
to push through. After that, conditions will improve up to VFR as
the aforementioned system both pushes past the area and continues
to weaken / fall apart. Both SFC winds and LLWS values remain
benign through the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...JLC

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