Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 061324

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
524 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Unsettled weather will
continue through the short term period. A low pressure system will
continue to move northward through the eastern gulf bringing
widespread precipitation to the southern panhandle along with
strong winds and associated waves. Scattered showers are expected
further north as moisture and lift will becomes limited.

Most of the wind and wave impacts will stay to the outside waters
and associated sounds open to the gulf. The tightening
atmospheric pressure gradient associated with the approaching low
will also allow for winds to develop in Lynn Canal creating a
small craft advisory for today. As the low comes closest to the
Southern panhandle strong winds are expected across Prince of
Wales and the southern Inner Channels. This tight gradient will
also cause windy conditions for Downtown Juneau and Douglas.

For precipitation amounts, have kept similar amounts to previous
forecast with the heaviest amounts around a half an inch of liquid
total through Friday.

Have dropped high temperature forecasts for today slightly, with
most locations only going down a few degrees as this system
becomes better represented.

.LONG TERM...Sat through Thu as of 10 PM Wed...Little change in
the forecast reasoning through the extended. Model guidance still
supports an upper low over the Bering Sea persisting into early
next week before weakening, then restrengthening mid to late next
week. This will maintain an active pattern across SE AK through
the extended forecast, but details are difficult to identify as
model solutions diverge in timing and strength of perturbations
ejecting out the parent low and across the gulf.

Current operational runs and ensembles coming into better
agreement with a front moving into the panhandle Sat and again
Mon, but differ slightly in the timing and amount of precip with
these systems. Forecast confidence in active pattern is above
average, but drops in regards to any details into early next week.
Confidence falls to low by mid next week with significant spread
in operational and ensemble guidance.


PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this evening
     for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this evening
     for AKZ028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043.




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