233
FXAK67 PAJK 132244
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...Another system moves through the region tonight,
bringing widespread rain and prompting small craft warnings for
most of the inner channels. Expecting about an inch or less of
snow for White Pass tonight but warm road surface temperatures
will limit impacts to the highway. Winds decrease overnight from
the south to the north, with northern Lynn Canal holding on to
some elevated winds to early Tuesday morning. Minimal concerns for
Tuesday but widespread light rain continues into early Wednesday
morning.


.LONG TERM...The primary feature of the mid range forecast is a
weak atmospheric river (AR) Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately
for many in the southern panhandle, the main hose of moisture is
looking increasingly likely to miss our AOR, and instead mainly
impact Haida Gwaii. While there are still indications that places
like the western side of PoW Island and Ketchikan may get
substantial rainfall, the probabilities of this has gone down
based on the run to run ensemble models between yesterday. The
higher weighted models, the GEFS and the GEPS, which previously
were in lock step run to run, appear to have shifted the bulk of
the precipitation southward to match the EPS and ECMWF. In
addition, any additional surface lows being generated off of the
potent jet streak aloft looks to impact Haida Gwaii. While
Ketchikan, Hydaburg, and Craig may see some enhanced northerly
winds as a developing system passes south, the overall threat has
decreased. Again, while it is possible that heavier rains and
winds could impact the southern panhandle, the likelihood is now
lower.

Finally, looking late Thursday into Friday, a ridge begins to
build aloft with a surface ridge in the outer gulf. From this
setup, a short lived drier pattern will extend over the panhandle
with some possible break in clouds, particularly for the northern
half of the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
Post-frontal onshore-flow showery regime will continue to provide
primarily MVFR CIG and VIS flight conditions with intermittent
rises to low-end VFR through the TAF period. Anticipating
CIGs to continually drop through the evening and into tonight
to around 3000ft or lower with visbys settling between 3-6SM,
lowest visbys within heaviest showers. Elevated winds will slowly
decrease through tonight and into tomorrow for much of SE AK to
around 4-8kts. Widespread precip will become isolated and
intermittent by end of TAF period for majority of SE AK TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...This afternoon at 12pm satellite derived wind passes
along our coast indicated 25 to 33 knot winds associated with the
frontal boundary, with buoys 83 and 84 reporting gusts of 30+
knots. Expect a short period wave group from the south-southeast
to dominate coastal conditions tonight before fresh seas relax and
our 6 to 8 ft southwest swell continues Tuesday morning.

For the inner channels winds continue to escalate this afternoon
as the front moves over the Panhandle, with small craft warnings
over most of our inner waters. For most areas, expect 20-30 knot
southerly winds, with gusts reaching gale force in isolated
problem areas like Grand Island, Skull Island, and Taiya Inlet.
Overall, winds decrease tonight as the low dissipates in the
northern Gulf; however, expecting a moderate breeze of 10 to 15
knots to continue from the south Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP

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