Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 061058 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 658 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England today into tonight. The unsettled weather continues Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low over northern New England. Temperatures will run cooler than normal to close the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 658 AM EDT...A closed mid and upper level low near Nova Scotia continues to influence the sensible weather across NY and New England this morning. A weak wave of low pressure moving across southern Quebec and its trailing cold front interacting with an H500 short-wave rotating around the closed low continues to bring some isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern and eastern Catskills. Widespread haze due to the soot and particulates from the Quebec fires persists in the lower troposphere. We adjusted PoPs and weather with this update. VSBYS are in the 4-6SM range with the hazy skies. The closed H500 low will retrograde slowly westward today with another short-wave impulse moving across the region in the north/northwest flow. Mid and low level lapse rates will steepen with dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with low to pockets of moderate instability with 0-6 km shear of 15-20 KT. Instability values vary on the CAMS with the 3-km NAM the greatest with sfc dewpts too high. The latest 06Z 3-km HRRR looks more on track with SB/MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPEs of 500-750 J/kg. Small hail (mainly 0.5" or less) and gusty winds of 30-50 mph look possible. Non-severe thunderstorms are expected, but the threat is non-zero, so we will have to monitor for an isolated severe. Haze will be an issue, but the best heating will likely occur from the Capital Region south and east. Highs close to the NBM maxes were favored with low to mid 70s in the valley areas and 60s over the hills and mtns with a few pockets of upper 50s over the southern Greens and Adirondacks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tonight...Any convection should weaken with the loss of the diurnal heating. In the cyclonic flow, isolated to scattered showers will linger and it will be cool. Lows fall back into the 40s with a few upper 30s over the eastern Catskills. Wednesday the upper low moves over Northern New England. Heights fall a couple STDEVs below normal with H850 temps -1 to -2 STDEVS below normal. The cyclonic vorticity with the mid and upper level low will focus some scattered showers. It will be cool with temps in the upper 50s over the northern zones to the lower 70s in the mid Hudson Valley. Overall, highs will be about 5-7 degrees below normal. Wed night through Thursday more coolish weather will impact the forecast area for June with isolated to scattered showers Wed evening with the coverage becoming less overnight. Lows will again be in the 40s. Thursday, expect showers to ignite timed to the diurnal heating with the closed/cutoff low hanging on over Maine. Highs will struggle to clear the 60s with 50s over the mtns. The rainfall is much needed after an anomalously dry May. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather and normal to cooler than normal temperatures can be expected during the long-term forecast period. Global deterministic models and ensembles continue to advertise a large mid- upper trough over the Northeast U.S. late week. While this feature will slowly slide off/depart to the east late week into the weekend, it will bring chances for diurnal showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Sunday into the early parts of next week, forecast models are suggesting a more widespread chance for rain (showers and perhaps thunder) as a cold front approaches and moves over the area. As highlighted earlier, temperatures are expected to run near normal to cooler than normal levels during the period thanks to the mid- upper trough that will be in place. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the 60s areawide with areas along the river valleys near 70F. Saturday through Tuesday, highs are expected to be mainly in the mid 70s along the river valleys (60s higher elevations). Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s and 50s about the area during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12z Wednesday...Conditions are VFR-MVFR at all of the terminals with ceilings between 5-10 kft AGL. Widespread haze over the area due to the Canadian wildfires which is restricting visibilities some. MVFR to VFR vsbys are expected to persist today as a result. There`s the chance for some showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop during the diurnal peak heating hours this afternoon/evening. Due to the isolated to scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms, have maintained Prob30s and included some TEMPOs for the TAF sites during this time. Any showers or storms that move over the TAF sites will have the potential to briefly reduce flight categories, particularly visibilities down to MVFR-IFR levels. Other that that, expect for VFR-MVFR conditions to persist through the 12z TAF cycle. Light and variable to calm winds overnight tonight will develop out of the north-northwest between 5-15 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts during the day on Tuesday. There could be higher wind gusts on the order of 20-35 kts from any thunderstorms. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Evbuoma is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.