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709
FXUS61 KALY 242000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region
and southeast Canada through the weekend. It will be cooler and
less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures
will run a little below normal for late August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper energy slowly building south out of Canada has supported
the development of fairly widespread cloud cover in northern
areas. Some cloud cover formed in central New England but is
more broken. There is a decent consensus in sources of guidance
for the cloud cover in central New England spreads into western
New England and eastern NY through the night.

However, current data and trends suggest that the shallow
convective cloud cover within the shallow moisture in the
boundary layer should mix out with the nighttime subsidence. The
upper energy over our region could prevent much subsidence and
support the spreading of the cloud layer but those trends are
not apparent this afternoon.

There should be some intervals of clouds in our region into this
evening and will suggest partly cloudy in many areas through the
night, in case the clouds do become a solid layer through the
night. Still, with near calm winds and at least periods of
breaks in the clouds, maybe even mostly clear at times,
temperatures should fall to near dew point levels and some fog
could form along rivers and swamps. Lows tonight in the 50s
with 40s in northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper energy slowly building south will settle south of our
region through the day Sunday and there are a few hints at some
enhanced cloudiness over our region, maybe even a few sprinkles
in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Low level flow from the east
may transport a little bit of extra low level moisture from the
eastern New England and Long Island shore into southern areas.
However, the shallow nature to the moisture and the weak upper
energy suggests convective cloud cover proximate to the upper
energy but no sprinkles.

Clearing should build south through the day, not that there will
be an overcast sky anywhere but wherever there may be more
clouds than sun during Sunday afternoon, should tend to clear
from north to south. Highs Sunday in the 70s with 60s in higher
terrain.

Deeper ridging and subsidence should allow for better clearing
Sunday night and Monday and with light winds, another cool night
Sunday night and highs Monday with lots of sun in the 70s with
around 70 in higher terrain.

Very weak warm advection begins Monday night and slowly
increases Tuesday ahead of the next approaching upper energy.
There could be some high clouds thickening Tuesday but low level
flow will turn to light south. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper
70s with around 70 to lower 70s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement that a longwave trough develops across
the Northern Plains, Great Lakes Region and Northeast as
shortwaves rotate about a large upper level. However, guidance
does differ regarding the details in the timing and amplitude of
the individual shortwaves. Favored guidance from the Weather
Prediction Center for the timing of fronts across the region to
maintain forecast consistency. Expecting a round of showers
along with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. The next cold
front is expected to move across the region Friday and Friday
night.

Temperatures are expected to be normal to slightly above through
the period. Highs each afternoon are expected to be mainly in
the 70s with lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley with 60s limited
to mainly above 2000 feet. Lows each night in the 50s with some
lower 60s in up the Hudson Valley Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the forecast
period. Issue will be at our two BR/FG IFR candidate terminals - KGFL
and KPSF. MOS guidance insists no obstructions to visibility at
either site. Last night KGFL had a few moments of MVFR BR,
while KPSF was IFR BR/FG for several hours. With conditions
similar tonight to last night, will run with a reprise from
yesterday with a period of MVFR at KGFL, and IFR at KPSF.

At KALB and KPOU expect VFR conditions with KALB checking in
with the usual MIFG toward sunrise Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region
and southeast Canada through the weekend. It will be cooler and
less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures
will run a little below normal for late August.

RH values will lower to minimum values of around 40 to 60
percent Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. RH values will
increase to 90 to 100 percent tonight with areas of dew
formation likely. Some patchy fog is also possible in the major
river valleys.

Winds will be trending toward calm tonight and Sunday night. On
Sunday, the winds will be from the northeast to east at 5 to 10
mph. On Monday, the winds will be east to southeast at less than
15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydro problems are expected over the next 5 to 7
days.

Dry weather is expected this weekend until Tuesday. The next
chance of widespread rainfall will be with a frontal passage on
Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS