Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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980 FXUS61 KALY 182318 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 718 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today through Friday, bringing fair weather with much less humid conditions. Unsettled conditions may return over the weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Clear sky and temperatures cooling. Few changes to the forecast needed if any through tonight. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below... High pressure building toward the area will bring clear skies tonight with temperatures much cooler than the past several nights. Dew points are down in the 40s north of the Mohawk Valley already as of late this afternoon, with 50s farther south. We are expecting overnight lows tonight to reach the 40s in many cooler locations along and especially north of I-90 tonight with lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog will develop in many of the usual locations, mainly at lower elevations near a water source. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will dominate the weather pattern into Saturday with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. Temperatures will recover to the lower 80s at lower elevations on Thursday then into the mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows will once again be below normal Thursday night; the coldest locations across the north country will reach the 40s with 50s elsewhere. Once again some patches of fog will develop early Friday morning in the valleys. The pattern will begin to change on Saturday as an unseasonably strong mid-to-upper level low pressure area moves east from the midwest and turns the mid level flow into the south along the east coast by Saturday afternoon. Low pressure developing off the mid- Atlantic coast will spread clouds across the area from the south with rain spreading north toward the area during the afternoon. At this point it appears that the best chance for rain will hold off until Saturday night. Models are in good agreement with this scenario and confidence is above normal for a day 3 to 4 forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There is an increasing consensus that an upper low will develop in the OH Valley and Great Lakes while upper energy and moisture in the SE U.S. rotates around the eastern periphery of the cyclonic upper flow into the northeastern U.S. This upper energy looks to be timed for Saturday night and Sunday with moisture and a boundary layer wind maximum tracking north from offshore the Mid Atlantic into New England and eastern NY. The upper energy, subtropical moisture and low level wind energy should support showers likely and scattered thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. There could be some locally heavy rain but with the dry conditions in many places this summer, it should be a beneficial rain in most cases. Flood potential will have to be watched though as we get closer based on the increasing tropical moisture over our region through the beginning and middle of next week. Once the upper energy and low level forcing exit later Sunday, there is a general consensus that the upper low in the OH Valley slowly weakens, retrogrades west and south while upper ridging in the Atlantic builds north and west into our region. As upper heights rise over our region and weak zonal upper flow sets up, a southwest/northeast oriented zone of deep tropical moisture is expected to be relatively stationary over our region, leftover from the upper low and anchored on the northern periphery of the developing upper ridging in the eastern U.S. So, with tropical moisture in place, diurnal scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible each afternoon, Monday through Wednesday, with slowly decreasing coverage each night. Highs Sunday in the 70s to around 80. Highs Monday through Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s but upper 70s to around 80 higher terrain. Lows Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday night in the humid and uncomfortable upper 60s to lower 70s but mid 60s higher terrain. High temperatures cold be warmer Monday through Wednesday if there are breaks in the clouds each morning and early afternoon before the storm develop through the afternoon, which could be the case since boundary layer flow looks to be southwest and downslope in some areas. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure in control of the weather through Thursday. Few clouds if any through Thursday but some fog is possible at KPSF and KGFL after midnight ending around daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions. Winds will be west to north at 10 Kt or less this evening diminishing to near calm by daybreak. Winds variable at 6 Kt or less Thursday. Equipment KPSF electrical work is ongoing on the field. Power has been cut to ASOS. Therefore TAF is issued as AMD NOT SKED. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build across the region today through Friday, bringing fair weather with much less humid conditions. Unsettled conditions may return over the weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. RH will fall to 30-40 percent this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon, and recover to 80-100 percent late tonight, with areas of dew formation possible. Winds will be from the north to northwest at 10-20 mph today, then become light/variable tonight. Winds will be mainly from the north to northwest at 5-10 mph Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Most of area received much needed rainfall, with some areas receiving heavy rains through Tuesday evening. This allowed for some very minor river rises of generally less than 2 feet. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday. A slow moving frontal system approaching from the west, along with a very moist airmass in place, could lead to frequent showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours for Sunday through at least the middle of next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...MSE/NAS SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...KL HYDROLOGY...KL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.