National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 230545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild tonight and again on Friday as a warm front moves northward
across the region tonight. A cold front will sweep across the
region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers to the
area, mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. A
cooler and more seasonable airmass will follow with temperatures
falling Saturday afternoon. Fair and chilly weather is forecast
for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Satellite imagery indicates low level
stratus clouds expanding northward through the Hudson Valley and
into the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills at this time. Will
continue to see increasing clouds farther north through the
night, although areas to the west of the Capital District should
see less stratus cloud development. Outside of overcast areas,
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies will result in fog formation
as temperatures have already radiated close to the dew point so
with light winds. Temperatures mainly in the 50s with some lower
60s across southern areas.

A stalled boundary just to our south will lift north as a warm
front tonight with a moist southerly flow developing. An upper
ridge will hold along the east coast as a low tracks into the
Great Lakes Region. It will be mild with stratus clouds and fog
expected to be prevalent, especially from around the Hudson
Valley eastward. Lows will be near what is normal for daytime
highs for late October in the 50s with some 40s in portions of
the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We will be in the warm sector Friday. The low will continue to
track northeastward across eastern Canada through Saturday
sweeping its cold front across the region Friday night into
Saturday. The showers will be most numerous north and west of
the Capital District closer to the upper level support with
chances decreasing as you head southeastward across toward the
coast. With the passage of the front a cooler and more
seasonable airmass will be ushered in. High pressure will build
in at the surface with the upper flow becoming nearly zonal.

Expecting highs in the 60s with some lower 70s in the Mohawk
Valley and upper Hudson Valley and some 50s across the southern
Green Mountains and higher terrain of the eastern Catskills.
Turning cooler with temperatures falling during the afternoon
Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Highs only in the mid
to upper 40s across the western Adirondacks to the mid 60s in
the mid Hudson Valley. Going to feel chilly Saturday night with
lows dropping down into the 30s below 1500 feet and in the mid
to upper above that. Below normal readings by 5 to 10 degrees
Sunday with light winds. Sunday`s highs will be mainly in the
40s with lower 50s limited to the mid-Hudson Valley into the
southern reaches of the Capital District and across northwestern
Connecticut into the southern Berkshires.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather is anticipated through much of the upcoming week,
as a frontal boundary remains close to the region and waves of low
pressure move up and along the boundary.

At the start of the period, southwest with the low to mid levels
will be allowing for a period of isentropic lift.  This should allow
for some steady rain for Sunday night into Monday, especially
western and northern areas.  With some cold air in place initially,
there may be a little of a wintry mix at the highest elevations for
the Adirondacks/southern Greens at the onset, otherwise, p-type
should be just a plain, cold rain, as temps rise from the 30s on
Sunday evening into the 40s and 50s by the daytime hours on Monday.
No accumulation is expected, as any wintry precip will be short-
lived and limited to the highest terrain.

There may be a break at some point between Monday night and Tuesday,
but more showers are expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday,
especially, as another wave of low pressure moves along the frontal
boundary.  Temps will be warming aloft with the southwest flow,
although the clouds/precip will hold surface temps down into the 50s
for most of the time.

The boundary may start to shift southeast for the late week,
although more round of precip are expected with another wave along
the front for Thursday.  By this time, the heaviest/steadiest precip
will be more southeastern areas.  Temps will continue to remain
fairly steady in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another challenging forecast early this morning in respect to
low stratus. Latest GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery
shows a stratus deck building northward. Low ceilings are
already present at KPOU/KALB/KPSF and based on trends, expect it
to impact KGFL within the next couple of hours. Have therefore
backed off on reduced visibilities and focused more on low
ceilings through much of the morning. Skies should become more
scattered for the afternoon hours before low ceilings once again
impact the TAF sites tonight. So for much of the forecast
period, expect MVFR/IFR ceilings with perhaps a brief period of
VFR.

Wind will be light and variable through the early morning hours,
then be out of the south to southeast at 5-10 kt (strongest at
KALB) for the day today.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mild tonight and again Friday as a warm front moves northward
across the region. A cold front will sweep across the region
Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers to the area
mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. A cooler
and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in with temperatures
falling Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread or significant hydro problems are expected into
early next week.

A cold front will sweep across the region Friday night into
Saturday bringing some showers to the area mainly to the north
and west of the Capital District. QPF will be light less than a
quarter.Next chances for widespread precipitation will come
Sunday night into Monday night as a series of low pressure
systems moves across the region. Appreciable rainfall could
occur for areas north and west of the Capital District, although
antecedent dry conditions may preclude any flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JLV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA