Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 230545 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Mild tonight and again on Friday as a warm front moves northward across the region tonight. A cold front will sweep across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers to the area, mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. A cooler and more seasonable airmass will follow with temperatures falling Saturday afternoon. Fair and chilly weather is forecast for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1253 AM EDT...Satellite imagery indicates low level stratus clouds expanding northward through the Hudson Valley and into the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills at this time. Will continue to see increasing clouds farther north through the night, although areas to the west of the Capital District should see less stratus cloud development. Outside of overcast areas, mainly clear to partly cloudy skies will result in fog formation as temperatures have already radiated close to the dew point so with light winds. Temperatures mainly in the 50s with some lower 60s across southern areas. A stalled boundary just to our south will lift north as a warm front tonight with a moist southerly flow developing. An upper ridge will hold along the east coast as a low tracks into the Great Lakes Region. It will be mild with stratus clouds and fog expected to be prevalent, especially from around the Hudson Valley eastward. Lows will be near what is normal for daytime highs for late October in the 50s with some 40s in portions of the southern Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... We will be in the warm sector Friday. The low will continue to track northeastward across eastern Canada through Saturday sweeping its cold front across the region Friday night into Saturday. The showers will be most numerous north and west of the Capital District closer to the upper level support with chances decreasing as you head southeastward across toward the coast. With the passage of the front a cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in at the surface with the upper flow becoming nearly zonal. Expecting highs in the 60s with some lower 70s in the Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley and some 50s across the southern Green Mountains and higher terrain of the eastern Catskills. Turning cooler with temperatures falling during the afternoon Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Highs only in the mid to upper 40s across the western Adirondacks to the mid 60s in the mid Hudson Valley. Going to feel chilly Saturday night with lows dropping down into the 30s below 1500 feet and in the mid to upper above that. Below normal readings by 5 to 10 degrees Sunday with light winds. Sunday`s highs will be mainly in the 40s with lower 50s limited to the mid-Hudson Valley into the southern reaches of the Capital District and across northwestern Connecticut into the southern Berkshires. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather is anticipated through much of the upcoming week, as a frontal boundary remains close to the region and waves of low pressure move up and along the boundary. At the start of the period, southwest with the low to mid levels will be allowing for a period of isentropic lift. This should allow for some steady rain for Sunday night into Monday, especially western and northern areas. With some cold air in place initially, there may be a little of a wintry mix at the highest elevations for the Adirondacks/southern Greens at the onset, otherwise, p-type should be just a plain, cold rain, as temps rise from the 30s on Sunday evening into the 40s and 50s by the daytime hours on Monday. No accumulation is expected, as any wintry precip will be short- lived and limited to the highest terrain. There may be a break at some point between Monday night and Tuesday, but more showers are expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially, as another wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary. Temps will be warming aloft with the southwest flow, although the clouds/precip will hold surface temps down into the 50s for most of the time. The boundary may start to shift southeast for the late week, although more round of precip are expected with another wave along the front for Thursday. By this time, the heaviest/steadiest precip will be more southeastern areas. Temps will continue to remain fairly steady in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Another challenging forecast early this morning in respect to low stratus. Latest GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery shows a stratus deck building northward. Low ceilings are already present at KPOU/KALB/KPSF and based on trends, expect it to impact KGFL within the next couple of hours. Have therefore backed off on reduced visibilities and focused more on low ceilings through much of the morning. Skies should become more scattered for the afternoon hours before low ceilings once again impact the TAF sites tonight. So for much of the forecast period, expect MVFR/IFR ceilings with perhaps a brief period of VFR. Wind will be light and variable through the early morning hours, then be out of the south to southeast at 5-10 kt (strongest at KALB) for the day today. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Mild tonight and again Friday as a warm front moves northward across the region. A cold front will sweep across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers to the area mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. A cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in with temperatures falling Saturday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread or significant hydro problems are expected into early next week. A cold front will sweep across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers to the area mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. QPF will be light less than a quarter.Next chances for widespread precipitation will come Sunday night into Monday night as a series of low pressure systems moves across the region. Appreciable rainfall could occur for areas north and west of the Capital District, although antecedent dry conditions may preclude any flooding. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/JPV SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...JLV FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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