Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 181034 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 634 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in today with dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Rain returns to our region late tonight and Thursday morning, as an upper level disturbance tracks across the area. A return to summerlike warmth is then expected for Friday through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...As of 620 AM EDT, earlier cloud band across southern areas has eroded, leaving mostly sunny skies in place. Temps range from the lower/mid 30s across the SW Adirondacks, to the mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere, warmest across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Previous discussion follows... As of 415 AM EDT, a band of clouds extends from the SE Catskills into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Regional radars suggest there could be isolated sprinkles within this band. Expect these clouds to continue tracking south and east through sunrise, with skies becoming clear shortly thereafter. Other cloud patches across the southern Green Mountains and Berkshires should also begin to erode around daybreak. Expect mostly sunny skies this morning, with increasing high clouds during the afternoon hours, ahead of mid level disturbance approaching from the west. After a chilly start, expect afternoon max temps to rebound into the mid 60s to around 70 for valley areas, and upper 50s to lower 60s for higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tonight, aforementioned mid level disturbance approaches from the Ohio Valley region, with another disturbance currently translating across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba approaches the northern Great Lakes region. Increasing mid level isentropic lift associated with the southern feature will bring thickening clouds this evening, with light rain overspreading areas along and south of I-90 around or shortly after midnight. The rain should then expand north and east, with most areas receiving light to moderate rain by daybreak. Coverage of rain looks to be greatest closer to the I-84 corridor through daybreak, where some brief periods of moderate rain could occur. Rain may be more spotty along and north of I-90. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Coverage of rain should decrease shortly after sunrise Thursday, especially southern areas, as initial disturbance tracks east. However, as upper level energy with second impulse approaches from the Great Lakes region, there could be an uptick in shower coverage once again for areas north of I-90, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. In fact, some models suggest some elevated instability developing by late morning through mid afternoon in this region, so can not rule out isolated thunderstorms developing. Showers should decrease by mid to late afternoon across northern areas, with little if any rainfall for southern areas in the afternoon, with some clearing possible before sunset. It will be relatively cool given mostly cloudy skies and at least some rainfall during Thursday, with max temps mainly in the lower/mid 60s, with some portions of the southern Adirondacks only reaching the mid/upper 50s. Clearing skies for Thursday night, and with light winds and a relatively moist boundary layer remaining in place, patchy/areas of fog should develop, and could become locally dense in some valley areas. Lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. After any fog/low clouds quickly erode shortly after daybreak Friday, expect much warmer afternoon temps as 850 temps reach +15 to +17C by late afternoon. Max temps should reach 80-85 in valley areas, and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. Friday night should remain quite warm, with lows only dropping into the lower/mid 60s for many areas, and it is possible that some areas only drop into the mid/upper 60s. Also, will have to watch for any convection that develops within the warm advective regime, which could at least brush portions of the SW Adirondacks later at night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... With an upper level ridge axis just east of the region over eastern New England, our area will be under the influence of west-southwest flow aloft. The low-level flow will be out of the south and plenty of warm air will be surging northward. 850 hpa temps look very warm for May, with value of +18 to +20 C, which is about 1 to 3 STD above normal. With the warm temps aloft and downsloping flow, valley temps look to reach the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints may reach the low to mid 60s, so Heat Index values could come close to advisory criteria for some southern areas during the afternoon as well. Although Saturday will start off dry, the abundant instability in place may combine with a lake-breeze to initiate some convection during the afternoon or evening, which may drift into western areas. An isolated strong storm can`t be ruled out on Saturday. Most of the convection should diminish with the loss of daytime heating, but will allow a slight to low chance for a lingering shower into Saturday night, with lows falling into the 60s. On Sunday, an approaching cold front, aided by a strong shortwave moving across the Great Lakes, will allow some showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area during the day. the greatest coverage will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may be strong to severe, as plenty of instability (SBCAPE of 1500-200 J/kg) will be in place, along with sufficient unidirectional shear within the 0-6 km layer (around 40 kts). In addition, mid-level lapse rates will be fairly steep as well thanks to an EML in place. Any storm will be capable of producing gusty winds or hail on Sunday and we will need to monitor for the potential for strong to severe storms. It will be another warm and muggy day, with temps reaching well into the 80s until storms arrive and lower temps to fall. Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will return to the region. Any lingering showers should end for Sunday night with temps falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s. High pressure will return for Monday into Tuesday with dry weather. Skies will be fairly clear each day and temps will be comfortable, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Dewpoints will be much more comfortable in the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows reach night look to fall into the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Behind a departing upper level trough, skies will be clear this morning for all sites with VFR conditions. West to northwest winds will be around 5 to 10 kts and winds will start decreasing towards the afternoon hours, as high pressure moves closer to the area. Some high clouds may start to spread in during the afternoon, but it will remain dry with VFR conditions. Mid and high level clouds will be increasing this evening and ceilings will become bkn-ovc at 6-10 kft by midnight. Some light rain showers will move towards the area for the late night hours, mainly for southern areas near KPOU. This could allow for MVFR cigs/visibility at KPOU just prior to daybreak Thursday. Elsewhere, will keep flying conditions VFR but show lowering ceilings with some VCSH for KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build in today with dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Rain returns to our region late tonight and Thursday morning, as an upper level disturbance tracks across the area. A return to summerlike warmth is then expected for Friday through the upcoming weekend. RH will drop to between 20 and 30 percent this afternoon, then recover to 80-100 percent tonight, then drop to 60-75 percent Thursday afternoon. West to northwest winds will average 5-15 mph today, then become light/variable this evening. Winds will then become south to southeast and increase to 5-15 mph late tonight and continue through Thursday morning, then will shift into the southwest to west by late Thursday afternoon and increase to 10-20 mph. A wetting rain is expected in most areas late tonight into Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrological issues are expected over the next several days. Mainly dry conditions will continue today. The next chance of more widespread showers will be tonight into Thursday. Rainfall amounts look to be light (0.20"-0.40") and should not affect river levels much, if any. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible during the upcoming weekend, although timing, extent and rainfall amounts are unclear at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...KL/NAS HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

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