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000
FXUS61 KALY 200528
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
128 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather into early next week
with temperatures continuing to be above normal. Jose will
remain well offshore of the southeast New England coast into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Reduced pops as showers associated with the outer bands of
Tropical Storm Jose dissipate as the move into the drier air
across the local area. As of the 11 pm advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center Jose was moving northeastward at 9
mph. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and
other details on Jose. Northeast winds will increase late tonight
especially to the south and east of the Capital District. Meanwhile
the quasi-stationary boundary to our northwest will continue to
weaken as it tries to move southeastward. Another mild night
with lows from mid 50s to mid 60s; these readings are 10-15
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Jose continues a slow motion to the northeast on Wednesday, then
takes up residence well southeast of the southeast New England
coast through the remainder of the period. Jose impacts here
will be nil.

Ridging will build into the area at all levels of the atmosphere
through Friday. This will bring well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period is expected to be characterized by dry weather with
temperatures warmer than normal, possibly significantly so. Ample
ridging over the eastern CONUS and associated subsidence will result
in persistent high pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures
over eastern New York and western New England through the beginning
of next week.

There is still some uncertainty with respect to the track of Jose,
which is expected to be post-tropical during the long term period.
It is something to keep an eye on, but model consensus has the
wind/rain associated with Jose staying offshore and out of our
forecast region for the long term period.

Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temperatures running 10-
15 degrees above normal for this time of year. (GFS and Euro
both show 500 mb 590dm heights in play at Albany on Sunday
night. A not comprehensive check of sounding data this summer
shows only one observation with 500mb heights getting to 590dm -
00z June 12.) With the aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely
bolstered by Jose`s outflow, high temperatures should be in the
upper 70s/low 80s in the higher terrain and low to upper 80s in
valley regions. Dewpoints throughout the period will be in the
mid 50s to low 60s resulting in humid conditions. Apparent
temperatures will creep into the upper 80s late this weekend
into early next week, making the heat quite oppressive for this
time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Terminals remain on outer periphery of TC Jose`s wind and cloud
field tonight. More of a straightforward forecast for KPSF/KPOU
which are influenced more by Jose with denser clouds and a fairly
steady wind. Both those factors should keep fog out of those
terminals, with MVFR stratus expected to persist at KPSF and
borderline MVFR/VFR at KPOU. KALB is closer to the edge of the cloud
shield, but enough mid and high clouds and a breeze expected to
mitigate fog potential there as well. At KGFL, did see winds briefly
calm out resulting in IFR BR, but it`s since bounced back up. Expect
variable conditions there with just a few-sct high clouds. Will
likely see vsby go back down to IFR if winds calm out again, so have
placed a TEMPO in the TAFs for that potential. A few light showers
cannot be ruled out at KPSF/KPOU but are unlikely to result in much
vsby change.

Mainly VFR expected for the majority of the daylight hours today to
the end of the TAF period as Jose continues to drift northeastward
and the terminals remain on its periphery. KPSF may see MVFR linger
a bit longer into the afternoon.

Winds will be from the north to northeast through the period.
Speeds will be up to 10 kt for the rest of the night, increasing to
around 10 kt during the daylight hours with some gusts to around 20
kt at KPSF/KPOU closer to Jose`s circulation.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some showers associated with Jose are possible for areas south
and east of the Capital District into Wednesday. The weather is
then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night into early
next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal.

Relative humidity recovery tonight and Wednesday night will be
90-100 percent. Minimum values Wednesday afternoon are expected
to be 60-75 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/OKeefe
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...IAA/OKeefe