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000
FXUS61 KALY 052002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
302 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-level low pressure over eastern Canada will circulate cold
air across our area through the weekend. A weak trough will
trigger a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight
into Saturday, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. Warmer
weather will arrive next week. |

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An unseasonably cold and blustery day is in progress with
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the teens across the
north country and highest elevations to the lower 30s in the mid
Hudson Valley. Deep mixing is allowing northwesterly wind gusts
to reach 30 to 35 mph in many areas, especially where those
winds are channeled by terrain such as the Mohawk Valley into
the Capital District. A little enhanced cu is developing over
the east end of Lake Ontario as of late this morning, and this
increasing cloudiness trend will continue over our western and
northern counties this afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
southward toward the area from Quebec. Expect some light snow
showers to develop over the southern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley by evening in response to this wave, otherwise
the rest of the area will remain sunny to partly cloud but dry
through the afternoon.

Scattered snow showers along and behind the surface trough
mainly west of the Hudson Valley will continue through this
evening with some places accumulating up to an inch of snow. A
few flurries may reach the Hudson Valley this evening, but most
areas in the valley will remain dry. The boundary layer will
gradually become less mixed overnight and winds will diminish
slowly, but some gusts of 20 to 25 mph will still persist
through the overnight hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The coldest air with this arctic outbreak will be over the area
on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures down around -18 to -20 C
over central and east central NY. The flow will be northwesterly
which will keep most of the lake effect snow showers west of
our area over central NY, but a few flurries or light snow
showers could still get into the western Adirondacks, central
Mohawk Valley and northwest Catskills through the day. The
boundary layer will be mixed to 4000 to 5000 feet AGL allowing
for gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph which would be slightly less
that what was experienced today. High temperatures Saturday will
range from near 20 over the north country and high elevations,
to the lower 30s in the mid- Hudson Valley.

Arctic surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great
Lakes toward southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and
Sunday, bringing dry, but continued unseasonbly cold weather.
Any lingering light lake effect snow showers will be south of
Lake Ontario well to the west of our area. Temperatures Saturday night
will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday will be slightly
warmer and less windy with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and
wind gusts down to around 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the large upper level trough over Atlantic Canada finally pulls
away from the region, rising heights and warming temp aloft will
occur to start the week on Monday into Tuesday.   Although there may
be some clouds at times thanks to stubborn low-level moisture
trapped beneath an inversion, skies will probably still wind up
averaging out to partly cloudy for both Monday and Tuesday.  With
the upper level ridging in place and surface high pressure located
south of the area over the Southeast, no precip is expected. Temps
will start out close to normal for Monday with mid 30s to low 40s
for valley areas, but will be noticeably milder by Tuesday,
with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the entire
area.

Wednesday will be even milder, as the low to mid level flow will be
out of the southwest and 850 hpa temps rise to around +5 C.  The one
question is how many clouds will be around, as some moisture will
start approaching ahead of the next frontal boundary.  It looks like
while there may be some clouds, it should stay precip-free.  Temps
will reach the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, which should
allow for plenty of snowmelt, as dewpoints also rise above freezing.

Depending on the exact timing of the next frontal boundary, there
could be some rain showers that finally move into the area by
Wednesday night or Thursday.  P-type will certainly be only plain
rain, as mild temps both aloft and at the surface will ensure no
frozen/freezing precip, even at the higher elevations.  It is still
unclear how much precip occurs as it will depend on how fast the
boundary moves through the area.  Thursday has the potential to be
another very mild day depending on how quickly the next front moves
into the area, just how much cloud cover is around and how much rain
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected to continue through
much if not all of the TAF period. High cirrus will continue across
the terminals this afternoon. Tonight through tomorrow morning, a
shortwave trough will pass through the region and bring a lowering
and thickening of clouds. Expect mainly SCT-BKN stratocumulus with
bases above 3000 feet at KALB/KPOU/KGFL and around or just above
3000 feet at KPSF (where brief MVFR periods are possible). An
isolated flurry cannot be ruled out, but it should be insignificant
should it occur, so will not include in the TAF.

Wind will remain blustery this afternoon out of the west-northwest
at 10 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Wind will gradually
lessen tonight to 6 to 12 kt with fewer if any gusts. Wind will
increase again tomorrow morning at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around
25 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF), still out of the west-
northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the
weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a
dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through
Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly
steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above
normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to
be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and
streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next
week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also
could be some rain showers later next week, although expected
rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS