Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 131041 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 641 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly sunny and more seasonable weather is in store today. Mostly clear conditions continue tonight but it will not be as chilly. Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM today for Southern Vermont, the northern Berkshires in western Massachusetts and the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics and Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren and Washington counties in eastern New York. As of 620 AM EDT...It is a cold, frosty morning across the region with widespread temperatures in the 30s (with even some mid- and upper 20s across the Adirondacks). Portions of the Capital District had a light wind much of the night and will start out in the 40s. There appears to be evidence of a strong low-level inversion as some higher terrain areas in the southern Greens and Berkshires are warmer than much of the region, starting in the upper 30s to mid- 40s. It is nearly cloud free so the sun will start trending temperatures upward. The frost advisory will remain in effect until 8 am, which at that time, temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to upper 40s and frost issues end. Today will be a rather nice day with sunshine, lighter winds and milder conditions as high pressure continues to build overhead. Some upper-level energy will pass across northern New England later today into this evening in which a few showers and possible thunderstorms may develop. This activity still looks to stay just to our north at this time but will monitor trends throughout the day. High temperatures will be much closer to normal values with upper 50s and lower 60s in the higher terrain and mid-60s to near 70 in the valleys. Mostly clear and dry conditions will continue tonight but it should not be as cold with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday and Saturday will be similar weather days with seasonably warm weather and chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. Forcing will be weak both days with dewpoints staying generally on the low side (upper 30s to lower 40s). This should keep any SBCAPE values rather low (<500 J/kg). As a result, thunder will not be included in the forecast at this time due to the low probability and likely shallow nature of any developing showers. However, one cannot be ruled out in the strongest convective cell. It will not be a washout either with any showers likely being brief and only amounting to a few hundredths of an inch or so. Some places may escape staying dry both days. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will range from the low to mid-60s in the higher terrain to the low to possibly mid-70s along the Hudson Valley. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, though some upper 30s are possible across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The period starts out on Sunday with a broad upper level trough in place across the region and weak NW flow aloft. Guidance indicating a subtle short wave trough moving through during the day. Slightly more ascent could result in greater coverage of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, mainly during the peak diurnal heating hours of the afternoon to early evening. Moisture still looks rather limited, with dewpoints in the 40s and PWATs only around 0.50-0.75". So there should be just enough instability/lift/moisture for scattered shower coverage. Will mention slight chance of thunder, but coverage of storms will likely be sparse. Temperatures should be very close to normal (mid 60s to lower 70s), which will feel warm given the cool temperatures over the past few weeks. Any diurnal showers will dissipate during the evening with loss of daytime heating, leading to dry/tranquil conditions Sunday night. Another subtle/weak disturbance may pass through on Monday, which does not show up in all sources of guidance. So will mention isolated to widely scattered showers again during peak diurnal heating hours of afternoon to early evening. Tuesday may end up being a dry day, however will have to mention slight chance to chance pops associated with a possible short wave moving across northern New England in the continued NW flow aloft. ECMWF and CMC indicating this solution, while the GFS is farther north and drier. Will stay close to NBM pops, lowering probability for showers south/east of Albany. Temperatures continue to be close to normal. By Wednesday, our region looks to be on the cusp of upper level ridging trying to build in from the west. However, some guidance still showing NW flow with the main upper ridge axis still positioned to our west. Either way, temps should warm a few more degrees and will mention just slight chance of a shower if the NW flow persists. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period ending 12Z Friday. Ridging aloft and a dry air mass in place will result in only occasionally a few diurnally driven mid level clouds passing through. Winds will be initially be light and variable, becoming north- northwest around 5-10 by late this morning. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Mostly sunny, dry and more seasonable weather is in store today. Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm each afternoon. RH values will lower to 25 to 35 percent this afternoon and Friday afternoon with values rebounding to 70 to 90 percent tonight and Friday night. Northwest winds today and Friday will generally be light at 6 to 12 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather is in store today before isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm return during the afternoon hours Friday through Sunday. Any showers will produce insignificant QPF amounts and will have no affect on rivers. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038>041-043- 047-054-058-063-083-084. MA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001. VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

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