Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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709 FXUS61 KALY 242000 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 400 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada through the weekend. It will be cooler and less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will run a little below normal for late August. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Upper energy slowly building south out of Canada has supported the development of fairly widespread cloud cover in northern areas. Some cloud cover formed in central New England but is more broken. There is a decent consensus in sources of guidance for the cloud cover in central New England spreads into western New England and eastern NY through the night. However, current data and trends suggest that the shallow convective cloud cover within the shallow moisture in the boundary layer should mix out with the nighttime subsidence. The upper energy over our region could prevent much subsidence and support the spreading of the cloud layer but those trends are not apparent this afternoon. There should be some intervals of clouds in our region into this evening and will suggest partly cloudy in many areas through the night, in case the clouds do become a solid layer through the night. Still, with near calm winds and at least periods of breaks in the clouds, maybe even mostly clear at times, temperatures should fall to near dew point levels and some fog could form along rivers and swamps. Lows tonight in the 50s with 40s in northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper energy slowly building south will settle south of our region through the day Sunday and there are a few hints at some enhanced cloudiness over our region, maybe even a few sprinkles in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Low level flow from the east may transport a little bit of extra low level moisture from the eastern New England and Long Island shore into southern areas. However, the shallow nature to the moisture and the weak upper energy suggests convective cloud cover proximate to the upper energy but no sprinkles. Clearing should build south through the day, not that there will be an overcast sky anywhere but wherever there may be more clouds than sun during Sunday afternoon, should tend to clear from north to south. Highs Sunday in the 70s with 60s in higher terrain. Deeper ridging and subsidence should allow for better clearing Sunday night and Monday and with light winds, another cool night Sunday night and highs Monday with lots of sun in the 70s with around 70 in higher terrain. Very weak warm advection begins Monday night and slowly increases Tuesday ahead of the next approaching upper energy. There could be some high clouds thickening Tuesday but low level flow will turn to light south. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 to lower 70s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Guidance is in agreement that a longwave trough develops across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes Region and Northeast as shortwaves rotate about a large upper level. However, guidance does differ regarding the details in the timing and amplitude of the individual shortwaves. Favored guidance from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing of fronts across the region to maintain forecast consistency. Expecting a round of showers along with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. The next cold front is expected to move across the region Friday and Friday night. Temperatures are expected to be normal to slightly above through the period. Highs each afternoon are expected to be mainly in the 70s with lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley with 60s limited to mainly above 2000 feet. Lows each night in the 50s with some lower 60s in up the Hudson Valley Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the forecast period. Issue will be at our two BR/FG IFR candidate terminals - KGFL and KPSF. MOS guidance insists no obstructions to visibility at either site. Last night KGFL had a few moments of MVFR BR, while KPSF was IFR BR/FG for several hours. With conditions similar tonight to last night, will run with a reprise from yesterday with a period of MVFR at KGFL, and IFR at KPSF. At KALB and KPOU expect VFR conditions with KALB checking in with the usual MIFG toward sunrise Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada through the weekend. It will be cooler and less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will run a little below normal for late August. RH values will lower to minimum values of around 40 to 60 percent Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent tonight with areas of dew formation likely. Some patchy fog is also possible in the major river valleys. Winds will be trending toward calm tonight and Sunday night. On Sunday, the winds will be from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. On Monday, the winds will be east to southeast at less than 15 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydro problems are expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Dry weather is expected this weekend until Tuesday. The next chance of widespread rainfall will be with a frontal passage on Wednesday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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