Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 052002 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 302 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mid-level low pressure over eastern Canada will circulate cold air across our area through the weekend. A weak trough will trigger a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight into Saturday, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. Warmer weather will arrive next week. | && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... An unseasonably cold and blustery day is in progress with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the teens across the north country and highest elevations to the lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. Deep mixing is allowing northwesterly wind gusts to reach 30 to 35 mph in many areas, especially where those winds are channeled by terrain such as the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District. A little enhanced cu is developing over the east end of Lake Ontario as of late this morning, and this increasing cloudiness trend will continue over our western and northern counties this afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates southward toward the area from Quebec. Expect some light snow showers to develop over the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley by evening in response to this wave, otherwise the rest of the area will remain sunny to partly cloud but dry through the afternoon. Scattered snow showers along and behind the surface trough mainly west of the Hudson Valley will continue through this evening with some places accumulating up to an inch of snow. A few flurries may reach the Hudson Valley this evening, but most areas in the valley will remain dry. The boundary layer will gradually become less mixed overnight and winds will diminish slowly, but some gusts of 20 to 25 mph will still persist through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coldest air with this arctic outbreak will be over the area on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures down around -18 to -20 C over central and east central NY. The flow will be northwesterly which will keep most of the lake effect snow showers west of our area over central NY, but a few flurries or light snow showers could still get into the western Adirondacks, central Mohawk Valley and northwest Catskills through the day. The boundary layer will be mixed to 4000 to 5000 feet AGL allowing for gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph which would be slightly less that what was experienced today. High temperatures Saturday will range from near 20 over the north country and high elevations, to the lower 30s in the mid- Hudson Valley. Arctic surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes toward southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and Sunday, bringing dry, but continued unseasonbly cold weather. Any lingering light lake effect snow showers will be south of Lake Ontario well to the west of our area. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday will be slightly warmer and less windy with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and wind gusts down to around 10 to 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As the large upper level trough over Atlantic Canada finally pulls away from the region, rising heights and warming temp aloft will occur to start the week on Monday into Tuesday. Although there may be some clouds at times thanks to stubborn low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion, skies will probably still wind up averaging out to partly cloudy for both Monday and Tuesday. With the upper level ridging in place and surface high pressure located south of the area over the Southeast, no precip is expected. Temps will start out close to normal for Monday with mid 30s to low 40s for valley areas, but will be noticeably milder by Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the entire area. Wednesday will be even milder, as the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest and 850 hpa temps rise to around +5 C. The one question is how many clouds will be around, as some moisture will start approaching ahead of the next frontal boundary. It looks like while there may be some clouds, it should stay precip-free. Temps will reach the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, which should allow for plenty of snowmelt, as dewpoints also rise above freezing. Depending on the exact timing of the next frontal boundary, there could be some rain showers that finally move into the area by Wednesday night or Thursday. P-type will certainly be only plain rain, as mild temps both aloft and at the surface will ensure no frozen/freezing precip, even at the higher elevations. It is still unclear how much precip occurs as it will depend on how fast the boundary moves through the area. Thursday has the potential to be another very mild day depending on how quickly the next front moves into the area, just how much cloud cover is around and how much rain occurs. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected to continue through much if not all of the TAF period. High cirrus will continue across the terminals this afternoon. Tonight through tomorrow morning, a shortwave trough will pass through the region and bring a lowering and thickening of clouds. Expect mainly SCT-BKN stratocumulus with bases above 3000 feet at KALB/KPOU/KGFL and around or just above 3000 feet at KPSF (where brief MVFR periods are possible). An isolated flurry cannot be ruled out, but it should be insignificant should it occur, so will not include in the TAF. Wind will remain blustery this afternoon out of the west-northwest at 10 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Wind will gradually lessen tonight to 6 to 12 kt with fewer if any gusts. Wind will increase again tomorrow morning at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF), still out of the west- northwest. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also could be some rain showers later next week, although expected rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

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