Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 211739 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1239 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable warmth will continue today with record high temperatures expected. The combination of snowmelt and recent rainfall may lead to some minor flooding over the higher terrain well north and west of the Capital District through Wednesday night. A cold front will pass through late this afternoon, ushering in colder and more seasonable temperatures by Thursday with some snow possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for Herkimer, Hamilton, and northern Warren Counties... As of 1220 PM EST, The main story are the record breaking temperatures expected to be set at Climate sites Albany and Poughkeepsie (see Climate section below for details). Based on forecast soundings and potential mixing, we are expecting temperatures to soar into the mid 60s to lower 70s for areas around I-90 and the Capital District southward. A favorable SW flow in the low-levels along with anomalous warmth at 850 mb +2 to +3 leads to higher confidence in the warmth. The all-time February record high temp of 74 at Albany set just last February, may be challenged. Again, areas in NY north of I-90 will be cooler with a lower confidence forecast in high temps. A cold front will be pushing SE across the area this afternoon, although timing looks to be late enough to not affect the warming potential across the southeast half of the area. Temperatures will actually start to drop during the mid afternoon hours for areas well north and west of Albany. Mainly some light scattered rain showers expected along the cold front due to lack of forcing and dynamics despite the unseasonably high moisture levels. Much colder air will filter back into the region tonight behind the cold frontal passage. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will build eastward into the region, allowing the flow to turn out of the north and continue to usher in colder air. Lows will be in the upper teens to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The primary upper level ridge located off of the Florida/Carolina coastline will persist but begin to flatten on Thursday. This will allow for a shortwave to ride along the edge of the upper ridge and across the area on Thursday and lead to a quick shot of precipitation. Due to the colder air in place, we could see a wintry mix including some sleet during Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. The best chance for precipitation will be mainly across the Capital Region and points south. We could also see a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulations. Dry conditions are expected Thursday night, as surface ridging holds steady over New York. Low temps will return to normal for late February, mainly in the teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Progressive pattern expected through the upcoming weekend with a period of tranquil weather expected into early next week. As the current ECMWF was not available for this long term portion of the forecast, the previous versions along with the GFS/GGEM all suggest the surface high will move off the New England coastline Friday as the return of a warm front advects northward with chances for precipitation quickly increasing. Precipitation type will be a challenge as warm advection moves across a cooler surface for a period of snow, sleet and freezing rain all possible with a transition to mostly rain from southwest to northeast through the day as warm advection persists. Friday night into Saturday, locations along and in the vicinity of the I84 corridor may remain close to the frontal zone for the chance of additional period of wet weather. Otherwise, large surface high is expected too move across the Great Lakes region and New England. This should keep the remainder of the region dry with near seasonable temperatures. Saturday night into Sunday, the next surge of moisture arrives. This will have Gulf of Mexico moisture being advected northward ahead of the main cold front Sunday night. Then drier weather in the wake of the frontal passage is expected overnight Sunday which should last through Tuesday. Temperatures through the period should average near to just above normal with precipitation averaging above normal. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through the remainder of the day light hours, mainly VFR conditions are expected with gusty southerly or southwesterly winds. Cold front is expected to move across the terminals late this afternoon. Very low confidence of any rainfall impacting the TAF sites so will only include a VCSH for now late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Winds will shift toward the northwest late this afternoon in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds should stay well mixed enough to limit fog potential after 00Z/Thu. On Thursday mixed precipitation is expected to move into the region with IFR conditions in snow for KALB, snow and rain for KPSF and rain changing to a mixture of rain and snow at KPOU. KGFL will only have VFR conditions with a PROB30 group for snow after 14Z with IFR conditions. Winds will be south to southwest and gusty at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon. After the cold frontal passage late this afternoon into early this evening winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts this evening at KALB. Winds will be north at 5 to 8 kts on Thursday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN...SLEET. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today, with some record high temperatures possible as well. It will be relatively cooler for areas north of the Capital District, although snowmelt will still occur. Not much additional rainfall will occur, with generally one to two tenths of an inch of rainfall across the western/southern Adirondacks. A cold front will pass through late this afternoon, resulting in temperatures cooling back to more seasonable levels by Thursday. The main wild card with regards to runoff will be snowmelt. Will maintain current Flood Watch for Herkimer, Hamilton, and northern Warren counties, although potential for flooding has decreased somewhat compared to previous forecasts based on the latest forecasts from the Northeast River Forecast Center. Also, MMEFS showing no near term flooding expected over the next couple days. Still not enough confidence to drop the Flood Watch though, but will not be expanding the watch area. We will also continue to monitor where current ice jams are in place for possible movement through Wednesday night. Flows may not be great enough to cause significant movement in the absence of rainfall, although there is considerable uncertainty in predicting ice jam movement. We will continue to watch this closely, especially for the larger ice jams around Schenectady and Thurman in Warren County. Additional precipitation, some frozen, is expected Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Rivers levels could rise further depending on eventual QPF. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperature are forecast for Wednesday. Wed Feb 21st Current record highs: KALB 65F set in 1981 KGFL 65F set in 1981 KPOU 67F set in 1953 All-time February highs: KALB 74F set Feb. 24, 2017 KGFL 70F set Feb. 25, 2017 KPOU 73F set Feb. 24, 2017 RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949... HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ032-033-038-042. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/JVM NEAR TERM...11/JVM SHORT TERM...JPV/JVM LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM/JVM HYDROLOGY...JPV/JVM CLIMATE...

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