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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 131041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and more seasonable weather is in store today.
Mostly clear conditions continue tonight but it will not be as
chilly. Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday, Saturday
and Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM today for Southern
Vermont, the northern Berkshires in western Massachusetts and
the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, eastern Catskills, northern
Taconics and Northern Saratoga, Southeast Warren and Washington
counties in eastern New York.

As of 620 AM EDT...It is a cold, frosty morning across the
region with widespread temperatures in the 30s (with even some
mid- and upper 20s across the Adirondacks). Portions of the
Capital District had a light wind much of the night and will
start out in the 40s. There appears to be evidence of a strong
low-level inversion as some higher terrain areas in the
southern Greens and Berkshires are warmer than much of the
region, starting in the upper 30s to mid- 40s. It is nearly
cloud free so the sun will start trending temperatures upward.
The frost advisory will remain in effect until 8 am, which at
that time, temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to upper
40s and frost issues end.

Today will be a rather nice day with sunshine, lighter winds and
milder conditions as high pressure continues to build overhead. Some
upper-level energy will pass across northern New England later today
into this evening in which a few showers and possible thunderstorms
may develop. This activity still looks to stay just to our north at
this time but will monitor trends throughout the day. High
temperatures will be much closer to normal values with upper 50s and
lower 60s in the higher terrain and mid-60s to near 70 in the
valleys. Mostly clear and dry conditions will continue tonight but
it should not be as cold with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Saturday will be similar weather days with seasonably
warm weather and chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm during
the afternoon hours. Forcing will be weak both days with dewpoints
staying generally on the low side (upper 30s to lower 40s). This
should keep any SBCAPE values rather low (<500 J/kg). As a result,
thunder will not be included in the forecast at this time due to the
low probability and likely shallow nature of any developing showers.
However, one cannot be ruled out in the strongest convective cell.
It will not be a washout either with any showers likely being brief
and only amounting to a few hundredths of an inch or so. Some
places may escape staying dry both days. High temperatures
Friday and Saturday will range from the low to mid-60s in the
higher terrain to the low to possibly mid-70s along the Hudson
Valley. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, though some upper 30s
are possible across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period starts out on Sunday with a broad upper level trough in
place across the region and weak NW flow aloft. Guidance indicating
a subtle short wave trough moving through during the day. Slightly
more ascent could result in greater coverage of showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm, mainly during the peak diurnal heating
hours of the afternoon to early evening. Moisture still looks rather
limited, with dewpoints in the 40s and PWATs only around 0.50-0.75".
So there should be just enough instability/lift/moisture for
scattered shower coverage. Will mention slight chance of thunder,
but coverage of storms will likely be sparse. Temperatures should be
very close to normal (mid 60s to lower 70s), which will feel warm
given the cool temperatures over the past few weeks.

Any diurnal showers will dissipate during the evening with loss of
daytime heating, leading to dry/tranquil conditions Sunday night.
Another subtle/weak disturbance may pass through on Monday, which
does not show up in all sources of guidance. So will mention
isolated to widely scattered showers again during peak diurnal
heating hours of afternoon to early evening.

Tuesday may end up being a dry day, however will have to mention
slight chance to chance pops associated with a possible short wave
moving across northern New England in the continued NW flow aloft.
ECMWF and CMC indicating this solution, while the GFS is farther
north and drier. Will stay close to NBM pops, lowering probability
for showers south/east of Albany. Temperatures continue to be close
to normal.

By Wednesday, our region looks to be on the cusp of upper level
ridging trying to build in from the west. However, some guidance
still showing NW flow with the main upper ridge axis still
positioned to our west. Either way, temps should warm a few more
degrees and will mention just slight chance of a shower if the NW
flow persists.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 12Z Friday. Ridging aloft and a dry air mass in
place will result in only occasionally a few diurnally driven
mid level clouds passing through.

Winds will be initially be light and variable, becoming north-
northwest around 5-10 by late this morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly sunny, dry and more seasonable weather is in store today.
Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday, Saturday and
Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm each afternoon.

RH values will lower to 25 to 35 percent this afternoon and
Friday afternoon with values rebounding to 70 to 90 percent
tonight and Friday night.

Northwest winds today and Friday will generally be light at 6 to
12 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather is in store today before isolated to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm return during the afternoon
hours Friday through Sunday. Any showers will produce
insignificant QPF amounts and will have no affect on rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038>041-043-
     047-054-058-063-083-084.
MA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001.
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun