505
FXUS64 KAMA 210827
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions for most of the
 Panhandles on Saturday.

-Potential for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next
 week with possible weather pattern shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Latest 08Z satellite obs continue to show zonal flow in the mid
levels across the south central CONUS which will keep the region
dry. Closer to the surface, a cold front will move through the
Panhandles the first half of the day today. Southwest winds
currently should shift to northerly behind cold front with winds
topping out in the sustained range of 10-20 mph, especially
across the eastern Panhandles. High temperatures behind the cold
front will return back to near average for this time of year
ranging from lower 60s to lower 70s. Southwest surface winds will
return tomorrow, and so will the warm temperatures. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Along with breezy SW winds, abundant fuels, and min RH values as
low as around 10 percent by tomorrow afternoon, elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions may return for the majority of
the Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Most of the long term forecast period will continue to be dry with
an H500 zonal synoptic pattern continuing into early next week.
Latest 21/00Z model and numerical guidance does show a low
amplitude sinusoidal pattern that develops in the SW CONUS, which
then quickly compresses and displaces an H500 trough moving
southeast across the Rio Grande valley toward the end of the
forecast period. If notable lift and moisture advection from the
Gulf can reach the Panhandles, showers and thunderstorm will be
possible. Will have to watch trends closely as we get closer to
the middle of the next week for more specifics on those rain
chances. High temperatures will remain above average throughout
the long term forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions expected for the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites.
Winds will be out of the southwest, becoming more northerly
towards the end of the TAF period with winds at 5-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  37  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  66  33  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  31  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  69  37  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              67  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  67  35  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  38  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  31  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  64  32  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67  34  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                67  37  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   66  37  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                69  37  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              71  37  82  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29