Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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266
FXUS64 KAMA 151942
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A robust upper-level ridge is stationed over the Panhandles leading
to very hot temperatures today, with multiple daily high records
likely to be broken. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into
the Oklahoma Panhandle later this afternoon and into the evening
which may provide enough surface convergence to force some showers
or thunderstorms in the northern combined Panhandles. Given very
high DCAPE values around 1900 J/kg, any shower or thunderstorm will
be capable of producing gusty winds.

The front will move further south into the Panhandles tonight and
through Tuesday morning. Some models suggest that it will stall
somewhere around the Canadian River Valley, while others bring it to
the I-40 corridor by 12 PM Tuesday. Will have to wait and see how
much activity there is tonight behind the boundary in Kansas as any
outflow associated with those storms could help push the front
further south. Therefore, it`s not entirely out of the realm of
possibilities that the front will move through the Panhandles by 12
PM.

There will be moisture pooled up behind the front, and temperatures
are expected to be in the 90s. If the front does indeed stall out,
temperatures south of the front may reach or exceed 100 degrees. If
the front remains in the Panhandles through the afternoon hours,
there`s a 10-20% chance that some pulse thunderstorms could develop.
By the late afternoon hours, surface winds behind the front are
forecast to turn from northerly to southeasterly or easterly.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Rockies in response
to a weak shortwave trough in the afternoon hours, and these
thunderstorms will move easterly into the Panhandles. The current
expectation is that these storms will grow upscale into an MCS by
the time they reach the Panhandles. A rather unstable environment is
expected to be in place across the area, with MLCAPE values between
1000-2000 J/kg, possibly as high as 3000 J/kg if the NAM is right.
As one would expect for mid-July, winds aloft won`t be anything to
write home about, but the strong directional shear should support
effective shear values around 20-30 kts. That, and with 500mb
temperatures around -5C to -7C, may support an instance or two of
hail up to quarter size. But if the NAM instability verifies, half
dollar size hail can`t be ruled out. But the primary threat will be
damaging winds given DCAPE values around 1400-1700 J/kg.
Furthermore, PWATs are expected to be around 1.4" to 1.6" which is
above the 90th percentile, and freezing levels will be around 14000-
16000 feet. These two factors suggest that very heavy rainfall will
be possible with any thunderstorm, and that localized flash flooding
can`t be ruled out. The MCS should exit the Panhandles by around 12
AM to 2 AM, but additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible further south throughout the night that have the potential
to produce some gusty winds.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A strong upper-level ridge is expected to get stuck in the
Intermountain West through the long-term period with troughing in
the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. This results in northwesterly
to north-northwesterly flow aloft as multiple weak shortwave troughs
are favored to impact the Panhandles. Cooler than average
temperatures are expected through this long-term period with daily
chances for rain and thunderstorms. It is tough to pick out any
specific day that could have more of a threat of strong to severe
thunderstorms since there should be some days where there is
convection and/or clouds that linger through the morning that
interrupt destabilization.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period with
winds generally less than 15 kts throughout. A cold front is
forecast to move through KGUY and KDHT tonight that will change
winds to northwesterly, but winds are expected to be 10 kts or
less at that time. There is a low chance (15%) for a shower or
thunderstorm this evening, but confidence is too low to make
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74 101  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
Beaver OK                  73  98  65  84 /  10  10  60  20
Boise City OK              68  97  63  82 /  20  30  70  50
Borger TX                  76 106  70  93 /  10  20  50  40
Boys Ranch TX              73 103  68  91 /  10  20  50  40
Canyon TX                  71 101  68  90 /   0  20  30  40
Clarendon TX               74 102  70  90 /   0  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 68 100  63  86 /  10  20  60  50
Guymon OK                  70  98  64  84 /  10  10  70  30
Hereford TX                70 102  68  92 /   0  20  30  30
Lipscomb TX                75 101  67  87 /  10  10  50  30
Pampa TX                   73 100  67  88 /  10  20  40  40
Shamrock TX                73 103  70  91 /   0  20  20  30
Wellington TX              73 106  71  94 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>015-018>020-
     317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52