668
FXUS64 KAMA 171850
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
150 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dry conditions and increasing temperatures are the main headlines
of the short term forecast. Quiet weather is expected this
afternoon through Saturday night for the Panhandles.

Early this afternoon, the Day Cloud Phase satellite RGB shows some
cumulus developing across the central and southern Texas
Panhandle. These clouds are not expected to form any sort of
showers or storms given very dry mid levels. Temperatures have
warmed up into the 70s region wide and most locations should reach
the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Light winds by Panhandle
standards are forecast and will lead to a very nice afternoon and
evening across the CWA.

Ridging remains over the Southern High Plains on Saturday. Warm
air advection at H850 should increase tomorrow with forecast
temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 20s Celsius. This
will lead to hotter high temperatures on Saturday, with widespread
highs in the 90s. Weak surface troughing is forecast to move
across the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon and winds will shift
to out of the north but should still remain around 15 mph or less.
Mostly clear skies are once again forecast which will lead to
another nice day for mid May.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Hot temperatures are forecast to end this weekend into early next
week for the Panhandles. Highs on Sunday and Monday will have
widespread mid to upper 90s and a few locations may hit the triple
digit mark for the first time this season. A few storms are
possible across the far east on Sunday afternoon and these storms
could become strong to severe. Temperatures are forecast to
slightly cool down into mid week.

West to southwest flow aloft is forecast on Sunday with strong WAA
expected in the low levels. Sunday looks to be the first of two
consecutive days to feature widespread highs in the 90s with a few
locations perhaps hitting 100. The potential for some of the known
hot spots (Borger and Palo Duro Canyon for example) to hit the
triple digit mark is around 60 percent for both Sunday and Monday.
Breezy southwest winds combined with dry air moving in from the
west could cause elevated fire weather conditions for the western
Panhandles on Sunday afternoon. Further east, enough moisture at
the surface and throughout the column may lead to a few
thunderstorms during the afternoon on Sunday. Currently not
expecting capping to be too much of a concern given the hot
temperatures, the main limiting factor would be how much moisture
can remain across the east. The 17/12z LREF mean keeps mid 50s dew
points across the east by 7 PM on Sunday, would not be surprised
for a few storms to develop before quickly moving into western
Oklahoma. NBM keeps most of the east dry with non-mentionable
PoPs, but given the overall set-up, have included low end
mentionable PoPs across the east at this time. If storms do form
across the far east, there is enough instability for a storm to
become strong to severe with the most likely hazard being strong
wind gusts.

The main axis of the ridge that supported the hotter temperatures
on Sunday and Monday should move off to the east by mid week as
troughing digs across the western CONUS. Tuesday should remain on
the warmer side before a cold front propels southward across the
Plains during the night into Wednesday morning. Would not be
surprised if highs are around 10 degrees or more cooler on
Wednesday when compared to Tuesday. How long the somewhat cooler
temperatures lingers across the Panhandles varies by model as the
global deterministic models do not agree on the synoptic pattern
beyond mid next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions are very likely with this TAF cycle. Initially, light
winds out of the south around 10 kts or less are forecast at all
sites. Winds will switch to out of the north around 12z and will
remain that way. Mostly clear skies are expected at the terminals.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  92  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  57  93  61  96 /   0  10  10  20
Boise City OK              53  87  52  91 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  58  95  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              55  94  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  54  92  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               56  91  60  95 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 50  90  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  53  90  58  95 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                53  93  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                58  93  63  96 /   0  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   58  91  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                56  92  62  95 /   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX              56  92  62  96 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05