446
FXUS64 KAMA 131114
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle
  during the next 7 days.

- Below average high temperatures will continue until a warming
  trend begins later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Afternoon-evening opportunities for spotty showers and storms could
materialize across portions of the Panhandle today, as we enjoy
another day of highs in the 80s. Quality moisture content has
persisted, characterized by dew pts in the low 60s with PWATs >1"
being commonplace. Strong 700mb theta-e advection combined with
localized areas of sfc convergence will support 15-25% chances for
convective development across mainly the southwest TX Panhandle.
Gusty winds and brief downpours would be the main threat from any
activity, but severe storms and flooding rains aren`t anticipated at
this time. Subsident flow aloft will make precip much harder to come
by Monday, while promoting slightly higher afternoon temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will stay mild in the 60s
through Tuesday.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

We`re still staring down a cooler and wetter than average stretch of
weather through the rest of the week across the Panhandles. Forecast
highs hold steady in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, thanks to
stagnate flow aloft as we sit south of the jet stream. By late Wed
into Thu, models show a low-level boundary stalling in our region,
with ample moisture pooled along and behind it. Despite the lack of
synoptic support, model data paint 20-60% chances for rounds of
precipitation until Fri morning, when drier mid-level air should
take over. By late week, long range ensembles show broad high
pressure finally taking better shape across the southern CONUS. In
turn, that summer heat we`ve been dodging early this season may
start to rear its ugly head into next week. Thankfully,
probabilities to reach triple digits are less than 20% every day.
And while precipitation chances decline, they won`t entirely
disappear.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

IFR with maybe some LIFR conditions to last a smidge longer this
morning for KAMA and KDHT. Low clouds with some mist expected to
persist for another hour or two before conditions begin to slowly
improve to VFR. VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period
with light and variable winds maybe picking up to 10 kts at the
most out of the south then southeast. VFR conditions expected for
KGUY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36