Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 262341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
641 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Will We or Won`t We Get Snow?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Light snow and Blowing snow
especially near the Great Lakes.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Sfc low in the Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-
Atlantic states, with the 500 mb low/trough axis moving into the
Upper Great Lakes. Snow with the system is expected to continue to
be in the southeastern part of the forecast area, until after
21z/Wed (this afternoon) when the 500 mb trough swings northeast
into the Lower Great Lakes and SW Ontario. This pushes, at least on
most of the models, the snow to the west so that there is a chance
for snow back to TVC this evening. Of course, as the sfc low then
move north into Lake Ontario, the snow moves east with the system
and begins to move out of Michigan overnight. However, the north
flow backs to NW flow overnight, and brings in the colder 850 mb
temperatures that kick off the lake snow. The first part of the lake
snow will be enhancing the system snow which is what allows the
system snow to back so far west. Then it turns to lake effect as the
colder 850 mb temperatures and the moisture moves into the region
and starts the NW flow event that looks to remain through Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow amounts. First with the system
snow. The amounts still look light, as the dry air pummels the
northern part of the snow trying to moves north. Looking at KOSC obs
it`s still 10SM with no snow even though the radar has been showing
11-20dBZ  for the reflectivity. The fact that we have so much dry
air and the N flow is fairly dry, the initial forecast with most of
the light snow near Saginaw Bay was correct after all. However, on
the other hand, the 850 mb temperatures today are progged to be a
little colder sooner than they were progged to be 24 hours ago. So
the lake contribution to the system snow is much more possible.
Looking at the N-NE flow over Lake Michigan, there are some bands
that MRMS is showing emanating from near MBL. No snow, but that`s
something to wonder about, as the winds begin to back to the NW
later tonight. So the main though is that minor to light snow over
the next 24 hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

High impact weather potential: Accumulating snow Thursday night and
possibly Friday.

Behind a departing low pressure system the winds will continue to be
northwesterly with colder air continuing to filter in (-16 to -18C
850mb temperatures)...which will continue to produce some
accumulating lake effect snow for portions of northwest lower and
eastern upper Michigan and could possibly last through Friday. Some
locations could see some pretty decent storm totals. Although the
pattern appears to remain progressive, the northwesterly flow
becomes anti-cyclonic ahead of an amplified ridge of high pressure
and much drier air...which should diminish any lingering lake effect
snow by Saturday morning/afternoon. High temperatures will remain
cooler...only reaching into the upper teens to mid 20s Friday, but
will moderate a bit each day until reaching into the mid to upper
30s by Sunday. Low temperatures will drop into the single digits to
teens above zero each night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

We start the weekend still under the cyclonic influence of an upper
level low to our east. Late Saturday through Sunday heights start to
build across the region with surface riding pushing through the
state, giving us another quiet period. Precip chances increase next
week with a series of waves rippling through the flow near the Great
Lakes. A front moves across us on Monday thanks to a clipper moving
through Ontario. Then a new surface low rides out of the Central
Plains along this boundary, keeping precip chances in for the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Much of this precip may turn out to be
a rain/snow mix, as profiles warm and high temperatures run into the
upper 30s and low 40s. High temperatures will remain cooler...only
reaching into the upper teens to mid 20s, while low temperatures
will drop into the single digits to low teens above zero each night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 633 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Low pressure well to our east will rapidly develop over the next
24 to 36 hours. This will lead to gusty winds, especially
Thursday into Friday. Lake effect snows are also excepted to
develop overnight and continue through the period, although bands
will primarily miss the taf sits. Cigs will slowly lower tonight
with MVFR cigs expected overnight into Thursday.


Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Tonight through Friday...Tonight, the stalled low moves more to the
east, and the Upper Great Lakes gets into a NW flow that continues
through the day on Thursday. Winds on Lake Huron look to increase to
Gale levels, with the gusts to 40 knots. winds don`t look to
diminish until Thursday night, when the sfc low moves more to the
NE, the gradient begins to relax. However, it looks like it only
relaxes enough to drop the Gales to small craft, which will last
through the day on Friday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347>349.
     GALE WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
LM...GALE WATCH from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-342-
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for


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