303
FXUS63 KAPX 111842
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and quiet weather through the weekend.

- Potential record breaking warm temperatures this weekend.
  Slight chances of precipitation return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure continues to build across the Great
Lakes Region while surface high pressure pivots to the east.
Cloud cover will decrease through this evening leading to mostly
clear skies for tonight, with the exception of the Wildfire
smoke expected aloft for the next couple days. With high
pressure overhead, the weather will be quiet with a warming
temperature trend expected. A thing to watch will be how much
the Wildfire smoke impacts temperatures in the coming days. As
such, Thursday looks to be a quiet partly to mostly sunny day,
with the exception of Wildfire smoke that could make it appear
cloudy/ hazy.

Temperatures for tonight look to drop to the 50s/ low 60s with
Thursday`s temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s (with
typical hot spots potentially in the upper 80s) across the
Northwoods. However, as discussed before, these temperatures
could be cooler than advertised due to the aforementioned
influence of the Wildfire smoke.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Elongated midlevel ridging continues to occupy the majority of
the CONUS, continuing surface high pressure and quiet weather
for the majority of the country while all eye`s remain focused
on Hurricane Francine in the Gulf. Current showers driven by
embedded shortwave troughing will progress eastward and return
sunny and dry conditions across the region for the first half of
the long term.

Upstream troughing begins to build and stall over the
Northwestern CONUS, continuing this high pressure pattern
through the end of the week along with allowing temperatures to
surge well above normal for mid September. Slight chances of
precipitation return next week as aformentioned troughing spits
out a few height disturbances/shortwaves, but overall no
impactful weather is expected for the duration of the forecast
period.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Potential record breaking warm temperatures this weekend.
 Slight chances of precipitation return next week: Nothing too
 impactful in the long term forecast. Main focus is on warm
 temperatures building at the end of the week as a few locations
 could potentially break their record highs. Wildfire smoke
 over the west could progress into the Great Lakes Region,
 putting a cap on any records from breaking, but regardless,
 unseasonable warm temps of highs in the low to mid 80s can be
 expected for the next several days into early next week.

Chances of showers return around the Sunday/Monday timeframe as
upstream troughing spits embedded disturbances into the Great
Lakes region combined low level moisture from the remnants of
Francine as it progresses into the Ohio Valley. Ensembles
continue to struggle with a clear solution for the onset of
precipitation next week along with if any amounts/impacts within
the CWA, but light amounts of scattered precip remain the most
likely solution. More details in messaging will emerge with
future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the issuance
period. Cloud cover will continue to decrease through the day
leading to partly to mostly clear skies for tonight. Wildfire
smoke aloft is also expected to linger through the majority of
issuance period with varying thickness, but impacts to flight
categories are not anticipated at this time. Expect south-
southwest winds between 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts at
times through the early evening. Otherwise, weak/ calm winds are
expected to return tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...NSC