759
FXUS63 KAPX 170937
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
537 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter and a bit milder today

- Turning much milder by midweek.

- Another system set to bring a rain to snow transition across
  the region later Wednesday into Thursday.

- Trending drier with slightly above normal temperatures to
  close out the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

North/south running ridge axis building directly overhead early this
morning, bringing with it clearing skies and seasonably cold
temperatures (the latter helped along by subsiding winds and fresh
snow cover). Large scale features will remain quite progressive
through the short term, driven by relatively flat, zonal flow aloft.
This will drive overhead high steadily east, allowing weak and
relatively moisture starved shortwave trough and attendant
disorganized surface low to race east into the northern Great Lakes
tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any light precipitation
concerns with that next wave.

Details:

Just some increasing high and mid level clouds this morning as that
upstream wave approaches. Moisture depth within weak isentropic
upglide regime becomes just deep enough across eastern upper
Michigan this afternoon to perhaps support a few non-impactful light
snow showers...although the vast majority of showers will stay well
north of our area. Dry conditions expected to continue elsewhere.
Elevated moisture plume exits rapidly off to our northeast
overnight, resulting in dry conditions...this despite intrusion of
weak surface low and attendant surface trough. Airmass modifications
will be fairly significant today as south winds become a bit gusty
through the day, helping drive temperatures into the 40s across
northern lower Michigan...with readings just a touch cooler north of
the big bridge. Expect lows tonight ranging from the upper 20s to
lower 30s across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Brief zonal pattern will disintegrate as ridging ahead of another
trough ejection into the Plains, yielding another cyclone (not quite
as robust as this weekend`s) deepening into the mid Mississippi
Valley, eventually trekking right over northern Michigan Wednesday
into Thursday. Result will be largely rain changing to snow across
northern lower and portions of eastern upper Michigan. Ridging
builds in the wake of the system as surface high pressure over the
Tennessee Valley brings return flow to the region, and thus a little
bit of a rebound in temperatures. Lesser organized shortwaves look
to pass through the Great Lakes later this upcoming weekend,
possibly bringing a return of more unsettled weather.

Primary Forecast Points:

Clouds will be on the increase on Tuesday as warmer air ahead of the
aforementioned cyclone builds back into the region. Easterly wind
component and mid-high cloud likely keeps temps a touch lower than
previously thought, so have adjusted MaxTs down a touch. Looking
like most spots in northern lower reach into the mid 40s to mid 50s,
while those in the eastern Yoop reach the lower 40s. Rain looks to
build into the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night as the
system works closer. Perhaps a rumble of thunder, but instability
does look quite meager, so not really anticipating much in that
regard. Overall, better precipitation rates look to favor more west
into the Yoop and Wisconsin, where a much more significant snowstorm
looks possible... while we see some passing showers that generally
chalk up to 0.20-0.50"... with the heaviest rainfall (potentially up
to 0.75" favoring the Lake Michigan shore into the eastern Yoop.
Colder air builds on the backside of the system, and with lingering
moisture, we could see another round of synoptic snow, with
potential for some lake enhancement. Overall moisture slug looks to
be departing rather quickly, so this should be a quick shot of the
colder weather, with highs Thursday largely holding in the 30s to
perhaps lower 40s near Saginaw Bay. Still a bit of discrepancy in
guidance, but accumulating snowfall is certainly on the table for
this system into Thursday morning, especially across the eastern
Yoop and into NW lower and the Tip of the Mitt. Coupled with
stronger winds on the backside of the system, could easily see some
wintry impacts to the Thursday morning commute. Drier conditions
build in Friday as ridging and surface high pressure to the south
induces warmer return flow, with slightly above normal high temps
returning into the weekend (highs from the lower 40s to lower 50s).
Will need to watch for a few weaker disturbances to pass through the
region at the very end of the period, which could return some
showery conditions to kick off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR conditions through the taf cycle with just some passing high
and mid level clouds. Light winds become southeast and
increasingly gusty as we head through later this morning and
afternoon. Developing low level jet this evening will result in
low level wind shear at all northern lower Michigan taf
locations. Surface winds decrease later tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LMZ323-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB