148
FXUS63 KAPX 151032
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Major winter storm system continues to impact Northern Michigan
today through Monday night. Significant snow, sleet and freezing
rain are accompanied by strong winds.

-Periods of light precipitation expected to continue beyond Tuesday
with temperatures gradually climbing back to climatological norms
for mid-March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep mid-level troughing pattern
continues to occupy the majority of the CONUS with its trough axis
over the Central Plains. Rapidly deepening cyclogenesis will
continue to move northeast directly through the Great Lakes region,
spreading widespread heavy precipitation across the entire country
east of the Mississippi. Ongoing warm air advection driven snowfall
will progress northward this morning as a 50kt to 70kt low-level jet
surges warm moist air into the Northwoods. Snowfall will switch to
mixed precipitation and rainfall accompanied by some convection by
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Low pressure will begin to
depart the region Monday morning, resulting in cold air wrapping
around the cyclone and spreading widespread snow showers across
Northern Michigan through Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the forecast period remains relatively benign
compared to the first 72 hours, as the 500mb trough shifts its axis
over the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday. Heights will slowly rise
thanks to ridging that builds over the Southwest, pushing cold cP
air north of Michigan. Temperatures will slowly climb through the
second half of the week, eventually observing highs near
climatological norms for March. Only precipitation chances will be
from waves of energy riding along constant isopleths, but no
widespread or heavy impactful weather is expected besides the
today/Monday system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Major winter storm system continues to impact Northern Michigan
today through Monday night. Significant snow, sleet and freezing
rain are accompanied by strong winds to deliver disruptions to local
infrastructure...

Today/Tonight: Snowfall will continue to pivot north this morning as
ongoing warm-air advection eventually introduces mixed precipitation
to the region. Snowfall totals for the first wave favor the M-32
corridor northward. Heavy, prolonged snowfall rates between 1 to 3
inches per hour will persist today north of the Bridge resulting in
totals of 10 to 24" by tonight. The highest uncertainty for this
event by far remains how far north the warm sector will actually
push this afternoon/evening, determining where exactly the line of
mixed precipitation and freezing rain will occur. Latest CAM
guidance continues to depict a deeper trough with a stronger warm-
air advection component, leading to mixed precipitation trending
north towards the Straits. Highest icing is expected to favor a
swath between Grand Traverse Bay to Cheboygan/Presque Isle counties
with accumulations for most areas between 0.25-0.50". That being
said, it is not out of the realm for high-res guidance to push said
warm air too far north as they struggle to resolve shallow cold
layers. Potential remains for a significant icing event with totals
over a half inch to develop south of the aforementioned line.
Watching to see if surface temperatures climb above freezing across
Northern Lower today will be a critical factor in pinpointing where
the highest impacts occur.

Monday/Monday Night: The cyclone center will be positioned directly
over Northern Lower Monday morning, which will lead to a brief
period of light precipitation and weaker pressure gradient force
winds compared to GRR and MQT CWAs. Cold air on the backside of the
system will begin to spread snowfall across the entire CWA from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Additional snowfall favors
the classic northwest-flow snowbelts, with the highest probabilities
remaining between 2-6 inches, including locally higher amounts near
Whitefish Point. The remainder of the areas across the CWA can
expect only an additional inch or less.

-Periods of light precipitation expected to continue beyond
Tuesday with temperatures gradually climbing back to
climatological norms for mid-March...Tuesday will observe the
coldest temperatures through the entire forecast period with
highs in the teens to low 20s as the previously mentioned trough
axis is positioned directly over the Great Lakes region.
Heights will begin to rise as this trough shifts eastward,
supporting a gradual increase in temperatures through the rest
of the week. Only precipitation expected after Tuesday will be
from embedded energy waves tracking snow across the region this
Wednesday followed by a round of light rainfall early Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Deteriorating condtions across northern MI early this morning with
most terminals at LIFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs. CIU/PLN most likely to see
persistent LIFR conditions in moderate to heavy snow and BLSN (with
some mixed precip) for the vast majority of the TAF period. While
some uncertainty still exists at MBL/TVC/APN with respect to precip
types this afternoon through tonight, chances exist for an icy
wintry mix as early as midday, potentially lasting through
tonight, although temperatures later this afternoon and evening
may warm just enough to result in plain rain at times.

Easterly winds today, gusty at times. Winds become more chaotic
tonight as low pressure passes overhead, but eventually trend
out of the northwest late in the TAF period, and especially
beyond into the daytime hours on Monday -- remaining gusty.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-
     020>022-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ023>030.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ031>036-041-042.
     Blizzard Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095-096.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ088-097-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG