000
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Weak high pressure has built over upper MI and nearby locales. A
band of cu is still found along the Lk Huron lake breeze boundary
over ne lower MI. It`s been quite a while since we`ve seen
sprinkles/showers along the boundary, are none are expected going
forward. Some leftover cu is also seen over central upper MI,
some of which is leaking toward far western Mack Co and Beaver
Isl. The cu over ne lower MI will eventually wither, but clouds
will tend to increase into eastern upper MI tonight, and perhaps
to some degree in the nw lower MI coastal counties.

Temps are already tumbling nicely, as cool as the low-mid 50s at
Kinross and the Sault. Have tweaked min temps slightly downward,
with lots of 40s (coldest in eastern upper MI), but some 50s along
the lower MI coastlines (especially on Lake MI).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...Quiet and cool tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Compact and well defined short-wave
continues to advance ESE through Lower Michigan on the tail end of
an upper jet streak that stretches from southern Lower Michigan
east across New York state. Clearly defined center of the
circulation is moving through the Saginaw Bay area as of 19Z.
Attending precip with the feature is now out of the CWA and moving
down through SE Michigan. Behind it, mainly sunny skies has
developed for all areas save for some pockets of heating induced
and slightly agitated Cu.

Tonight: First off, APX radar imagery shows an inbound marine
boundary off Lake Huron pressing through parts of NE Lower
Michigan generally along the M-33 corridor. This shows on
satellite as a few lines/pockets of slightly agitated Cu about to
converge in that area. There might be enough low level focus to
pop a few showers late this afternoon into the early evening
although overall instability is very lackluster at the moment.
Will see, but I have retained some low chance pops A quiet night
anticipated overall.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will build over the state tonight in
the wake of the departing short-wave. This will lead to overall
quiet weather for the region tonight. Might be a little bit of fog
in spots, particularly for those few areas that did receive some
rain earlier today. But mainly clear skies will lead to cool
temperatures with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...And now the Models are Backing off the Rain...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible Sunday
afternoon and night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts...With us being in a
drought the last few weeks, the hope of rain is tantalizing. So the
last several runs, looked like we could get some .50 to 1.00"
amounts. However (uh-oh), the 12z model runs are beginning to show a
split of the rain over N Lower, with a decent rain in the UP, and a
decent rain south of M-55. In particular, the GFS, ARW and Fv3 show
a lessening of the QPF. This is makes messaging  particularly
difficult, with 2-3 runs of consistent precipitation over the region,
and now with possible splits in the flow of rain happening. The CMC,
NAM, and ECMWF show a weak split, and a delay in the onset of the
rain. So there is rain, just not the amounts we had foreseen. So, at
least for pops, will have a model blend of
GFS/ARW/Fv3/NAMNest/NAMDNG/CanReg(regional CMC)/ECMWF/SREF. The WPC
QPF grids are scaled back, and that fits with the pops for now, but
am getting a bit concerned about getting ripped off. The rain
continues into Monday, and some of the models have the best rain
then. It also looks to be the coolest of the days, with the highs in
Gaylord getting into the lower 60s. However, wouldn`t be surprised
if, with the strong CAA that we struggle to get to 60. Monday night
looks breezy and chilly, to start, but the winds could drop off, and
some min temperatures could drop to the mid 30s. Not ready to add
frost, but the percentage is non-zero. Tuesday, another 500 mb
trough moves through the region. The models have some showers,
mainly in the afternoon and evening, with the NW flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal for now.

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...Tuesday night the NW
flow showers, and possibly thunder move through the region. The GFS
is still showing some sort of MCS, by Wednesday morning. Wednesday
may have some showers that linger into the afternoon and clear out
in the evening. Temperatures should be a rebound. Thursday, there is
better agreement with the overall pattern, but the ECMWF is slower
than the GFS with the next rain, which looks substantial, but we`ll
see. Not going to get fooled again. Friday, continues the rain on
both models, which if this is the case, could bring some relief, but
feel that the models are over done. Saturday looks like it could be
dry, as we are between systems. We`ll see. Not particularly
confident with the models after what is currently going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

VFR into early Sunday evening, then worsening conditions.

Strengthening low pressure will move across northern Michigan
Sunday night. VFR conditions will persist into Sunday, though a
touch of patchy ground fog is possible late tonight. Showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will move east into the area Sunday
night, with lowering cigs and eventually vsbys. MVFR conditions
are expected to become widespread, and IFR is possible at times.

Light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Light winds and waves anticipated tonight through Sunday as
surface high pressure drifts through the region. A stronger storm
system will emerge from the Plains and cross the Great Lakes
Sunday night through Monday. Winds turn into the northwest and
gusty early Monday and there is a possibility for some gale force
gusts to develop on the northern lakes at that time while small
craft advisories everywhere are a good bet. Will not be hoisting
any gale headlines just yet. But stay tuned for later forecasts
and likely headlines for Monday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA