


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
214 FXUS63 KAPX 131826 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 226 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy/smoky skies continue into Monday - Gradual warming trend through midweek - Next chances for more widespread rain arrive Wednesday/Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low-amplitude upper trough continues to cross the western Great Lakes through the remainder of the day with flow becoming more zonal through at least midweek. Surface high pressure will largely remain in place through this same time frame. However, a weak frontal boundary/surface trough will cross the area on Monday, perhaps with at least a brief uptick in cloud cover and low chances for a few showers. Forecast Details: Plenty of wildfire smoke aloft resulting in hazy/smoky skies this afternoon with occasional reductions in surface visibility. Otherwise, little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through tonight with lows falling into the 50s and low 60s area-wide. Early Monday, decaying frontal boundary with limited large scale ascent will approach from the northwest. While inconsequential overall, an uptick in cloud cover and perhaps a couple of rogue showers will be possible across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt -- primarily mid-Monday morning through mid-afternoon. Smoke concentrations expected to be less than today, but still some haziness anticipated tomorrow as well. Highs in the 80s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Pattern Forecast: By midweek, broad upper-level troughing expected to be evident across much of Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS while ridging begins to build over the southeast states. Plenty of moisture transport into the nation`s midsection, including the Great Lakes, by this time frame on the heels of increasing southwesterly winds. Attention revolves around a quasi-stationary W- E oriented boundary expected to be draped from Quebec into the northern Plains mid-late week, providing the focus for surface waves to ride along and repeated rounds of showers and storms. Forecast Details: While confidence is high in more active weather returning across the Midwest and Great Lakes mid-late week, lower confidence prevails with respect to the details and potential for repeated rounds of convection/heavy rain. Confidence in the latter largely hinges around placement of that nearly stalled W-E oriented boundary and how long its parked over the same region before being shunted off to the east. Where it does set up, repeated rounds of showers and storms are likely with locally heavy rain possible given ensemble means suggesting PWATs in the climatological top 25th percentile for mid-July. WPC noting this potential as well with all of the upper and mid-MS Valley, and Great Lakes highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. By Friday, higher probabilities prevail for quieter weather with high pressure at least briefly settling over the region. Confidence diminishes thereafter with a myriad of solutions possible heading into next weekend. Otherwise, very warm temperatures anticipated Tuesday -- potentially into the low-mid 90s in favored downsloping areas, but some question as to whether upper-level smoke lingers and limits daytime heating to any extent. Potential warmth and mugginess continues Wednesday with cooler temperatures expected through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Smokey/ hazy skies have been impeding visibilities across most terminals this afternoon with upstream observations continuing to display reduced visibilities. Thinking MVFR visibilities will continue through the day and possibly into tonight/ Monday as Canadian wildfire smoke tracks overhead-- This will continue to be monitored and fine tuned. Winds will breifly shift more south- southwest late tonight into early Monday before switching back westerly Monday with occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...NSC