Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000 FXUS63 KARX 310722 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 222 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 High pressure remains in control today, with another seasonable day in store for most of the area. East winds in the low levels have led to some Lake Michigan enhanced clouds across parts of eastern into central Wisconsin as of 2 am. Short term guidance is pretty insistent with holding onto these said clouds and spreading them a little further westward into the local area today (mainly locations east of the Mississippi River). However, any lake- enhanced clouds will be working against subsidence, which may limit if they hold together or not. If low clouds do spread westward, temperatures will likely need to be lowered by a few degrees for some. For now, have elected to increase cloud cover a bit east of the Mississippi River and lowered temperatures slightly to reflect this. Will continue to monitor and make adjustments if necessary. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 After a quiet start to the work week, precipitation chances return for the long term period. A large scale trough currently sitting just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will be the system to watch as it brings a few waves of precipitation for the remainder of the week into the weekend. The first being Wednesday as a weak shortwave trough moves through the region. This paired with some decent warm air advection will result in light rain showers on Wednesday. Some mix with snow is possible at the onset on Wednesday morning as overnight lows are expected to be in the low to middle 30s. QPF looks to be on the lighter side with this shortwave, with totals generally less than a quarter of an inch. A more robust shortwave will then approach the area Thursday night as a strong frontogenetic band develops, bringing widespread precipitation to the area through Friday night/Saturday morning. Precipitable water values look to near 0.75 inch (approx. +2 standard deviations from the mean), which could bring some heavier QPF amounts. Still some differences in timing, with the question on how long precipitation may linger going into the start of the weekend. About half of the GEFs members move most precipitation out by midday Saturday, whereas the other half hold onto it through Saturday night. QPF amounts look to range from about 0.50 to 1.00 inch, with models painting the highest swath to the northwest of the local area. As temperatures cool behind the front, any lingering precipitation going into Saturday will likely fall in the form of a rain/snow mix. The large scale trough lifts further northeast through Canada this weekend as upper ridging/southwest flow builds in aloft in its wake. Additional precipitation chances are possible from Sunday night into the beginning of the new week as a few shortwave troughs ripple through the overall flow. Confidence in exact timing and placement of potential waves is still low at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 VFR conditions expected at KRST and KLSE through the period as high pressure holds over the area. That being said, will be watching stratocumulus off of Lake Michigan trying to edge westward toward the KLSE site Tuesday morning but will keep sct050 going for now as these clouds should be thinning through the day as they progress westward. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...DAS

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