Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 192019 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 419 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms have developed, and will become widespread late this afternoon over much of the area. Some of these storms may become strong to severe. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday before a couple of dry days Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... watch continues with a pair of severe thunderstorm warnings for Oneida county. More thunderstorms will move in from the southwest. Thunderstorms have developed over central PA and will continue as they move into the destabilizing airmass over our area. Biggest severe threat will be the wind. Wind shear is moderate. Still a weak cap over most of the area but above it unstable with 1 to 2k cape. Lapse rates around 7. PWATs 1 to 1.5" providing ample moisture. Main concern is training across the far north. Radar estimates 1 to 2 inches. In addition they had a round of thunderstorms this morning in the same area. Flash flooding possible. With dry mid layers and high CAPE severe hail also possible. Also weak tornadoes could occur with moderate low level shear. The severe threat continues into the early evening. At that point there will be a lull then another round comes in toward midnight ahead of the cold front. The cold front slows as it gets into NEPA and the Catskills. This will be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms Monday. This has less stability than today but more forcing with upper level height falls, a short wave, and jet dynamics. Showers will move out in the evening. For temperatures starting out very warm in the 80s this afternoon. Warmest temperatures since last September. Making it seem warmer are dewpoints in the 60s. With the cold front still to the west tonight, temperatures will fall only into the 60s. Monday again above normal but cooler than today. Highs low 70s northwest to low 80s southeast. Monday night lows in the 40s. 204 PM Update... Thunderstorms continue to develop in a moist and unstable airmass across the region, especially in the vicinity of a warm front located near the Thruway. With additional convection expected to develop through the rest of the afternoon, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for the entire area until 9 PM. Updated ZFP has been issued. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... High pressure at all levels builds in this period with dry air. High temperatures mostly in the low and mid 60s. Low temperatures again in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large dome of high pressure will be over the southeast during much of this period. At this time, it does not appear this high pressure and associated upper level ridge will make it to our region. This will set up a storm track around this high pressure system, from the Plains to Great Lakes to Northeast. This will result in a few separate passing waves during this timeframe, which will bring some chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. That being said, it does not appear that any particular day will be a complete washout (there will be plenty of dry periods as well). In terms of temperatures, Wednesday will likely be the coolest day, with highs in the 60s. Thursday through Sunday will likely have highs mostly in the 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 pm update... Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Convection has started near RME/SYR. Other convection will move into the other sites in a few hours. Have a tempo for MVFR or IFR vsbys and low end VFR cigs 21 to 23z in NY and 23 and 02z at AVP in thunderstorms. After this initial line of convection there will be a dry gap then more showers with MVFR conditions around 3 to 6z. After this some MVFR late tonight for RME/BGM and maybe ELM/ITH. Southwest Winds at 10 kts this afternoon. Tonight winds 5 to 10 kts. Monday winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Outlook... Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms. Monday night through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure. Thursday through Friday...Possible restrictions in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...TAC

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