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925
FXUS61 KBGM 221834
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
234 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain showers will spread over the area this afternoon, and could
mix with some snow showers by evening or overnight. Cooler but
dry and mostly sunny weather expected for Sunday before the next
system brings a period of snow and rain Sunday Night into
Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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230 PM Update...

The cold front has arrived, with rain showers spreading across
the area. Showers will only last for a few hours, before
dissipating by sunset. Flow switches from southerly to west-
northwesterly, with colder air filtering in. Although
precipitation mostly dissipates, light lake effect show showers
for Central NY is possible through the night before high
pressure builds in Sunday morning. Light accumulations of a few
tenths of an inch of snow can be expected. With cold air
advection coming in, tomorrow`s high temperatures will only
reach into the high 30s/low 40s.

An approaching low pressure system will start moving through the
area overnight Sunday. Marginal temperatures around the freezing
point will result in mixed snow and rain showers. Snow
accumulations greater than one inch are most likely in higher
elevations in Northern Oneida County and the Catskills through
Sunday night. Precipitation should be transitioned over to
mainly rain west of I-81, and a mix of rain and snow showers
east of I-81, by Monday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the lingering
rain and snow showers Monday morning...persisting as light rain
showers Monday afternoon and then transitioning back to a
rain/snow mix Monday night and very light lake effect snow/rain
showers through the day Tuesday, mostly over central NY
(southeast of Lake Ontario).

Low pressure system over the central Great Lakes will be
lifting to the east/northeast Monday morning with a warm front
extending to the east into Upstate NY and Green Mtns of VT. A
broad area of large scale lift along this warm front, combined
with a weak mid level short wave and a plume of PWs around 0.5
to 0.75 inch will supply the necessary ingredients for rain and
snow showers on Monday. The thermal profiles will be mostly
conducive for rain through the day, but some cold air trapped in
the low levels, especially the higher terrain of the Catskills
and the Tug Hill, could allow for some snow to mix in during the
morning hours. Otherwise, thermal profiles will warm and stay
above freezing most of the day Monday with surface high
temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 50s in NY and into
the upper 50s in ne PA. Conditions could be slightly breezy on
Monday as well with sustained south winds around 15 to 20 mph
and gusts up to 30 mph.

As the surface low in the Great Lakes moves east into Quebec, a
cold air mass is expected to wrap around the back side and push
in from the northeast over NY and PA. The air mass will not
only be cold but also dry, so any precipitation Monday night and
Tuesday will be lake induced and light and placed
downwind/southeast of Lake Ontario across central NY. There is
the potential for around an inch of accumulation in the hills
south of Syracuse and 1-2 inches in the southern Tug Hill region
of northern Oneida Monday night into Tue. Otherwise, most
locations that do experience snow will see only trace accums.

Surface temperatures Mon night will fall into the 30s for most
of the area, and then only warm back into the lower to mid 40s
Tuesday afternoon over much of central NY and ne PA...with some
upper 40s close to 50 possible in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
220 PM update...

Large scale synoptic flow pattern during the mid to latter part
of the week will be mostly defined by broad cyclonic flow with
the initial low pressure system to the north slowly exiting to
the northeast and the next short wave dropping in from central
Canada. This short wave is expected to bring with it another
shot of cold air and keep temperatures at or slightly below
normal for this time of year. Temperatures Wed morning will
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s and warm into the upper 30s
to mid 40s...with light snow showers downstream of Lake Ontario
not amounting to much if any accumulation.

The pattern will relax a bit Thu into Fri as a weak ridge builds
into the central US and temperatures start a slow climb above
normal. High temperatures will be able to climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s, and overnight lows should bottom out in the upper 20s
and lower to mid 30s. During this late-week period, the potential
for occasional on and off rain and snow showers will exist
indefinitely.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain moves through this afternoon as a low pressure system and
associated cold front move into the area. TEMPO MVFR
restrictions look to develop across BGM/ITH/SYR/ELM during the
mid afternoon hours as the heaviest rain showers ahead of the
cold front move through. RME is currently the only terminal
where MVFR looks to prevail for several hours. Winds will be out
of the south during the morning, gusting to 20-22kts, and will
increase and switch to WNW as the cold front moves through,
gusting 25-30kts into the early evening hours.


Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Another system brings rain/snow showers to the area
with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered snow and rain showers over
the region with more restrictions possible.

Thursday...Scattered showers with associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KL