Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 251054 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 654 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Some lingering rain showers and drizzle are expected today, especially across Northeast PA, but otherwise conditions will be gradually drying out. Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for most of the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 610 AM Update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours to better reflect latest radar trends. Still quite a few light rain showers around, mainly east of I-81 (and mainly across the Poconos-Catskills). Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and the previous discussion remains valid. 315 AM Update: The remnants of Ophelia will finally be kicked off to the east today which will bring an end to the steadier rainfall. However, with a easterly onshore flow, low clouds and drizzle/very light rain showers will linger around through the day today, especially across Northeast PA to the Catskills. Farther north in Central NY (especially along and north of the NY Thruway corridor), partly to even mostly sunny skies are expected to break out. The extensive cloud cover/drizzle to the south will keep temperatures cooler today, while the partial sunshine to the north will bring warmer temperatures. Highs from the Twin Tiers southward are expected to only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while the rest of Central NY will have highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A continued easterly flow will keep the clouds and drizzle/isolated light rain showers around tonight for Northeast PA to the Catskills, but elsewhere, dry conditions are expected along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the area, with lower to mid 40s for parts of the Catskills-Tug Hill. Although still cannot rule out some lingering drizzle/isolated light showers across Northeast PA Tuesday morning, Tuesday will feature mainly dry weather along with gradual clearing skies as high pressure across southern Quebec starts to drift southward into our region. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 335 AM Update: A broad surface high over eastern Canada and New England will be nosing down into our area along with a surge of dry air at the mid and upper levels which will promote dry conditions over the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy Tuesday night and with mostly calm winds in place overnight, it will be a pretty chilly night. Temperatures were lowered a bit below guidance as a result. There is still ample moisture in the lower levels that could result in some valley areas of the Catskills and up on the Tug Hill to see some patchy frost as temperatures could reach the mid 30s. Lows elsewhere Tuesday night will be primarily in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunshine will be mixed with some patchy clouds Wednesday with high temperatures mostly in the mid-to- upper 60s. With more clouds in the area Wednesday, overnight lows won`t be quite as chilly as it will drop back into the low- to-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 335 AM Update: The surface high will start to weaken a little on Thursday and shift a bit to the north and east. While it will remain dry, this will allow for an upper-level low moving east from the Midwest to shift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This low does seem to weaken and perhaps become an open trough of low pressure as it moves through the area Thursday night into Friday. With an east-northeasterly flow in place, there can be enough moisture as this feature moves through to result in some spotty showers, but PoPs will be capped at a slight chance for now. Highs Thursday and Friday will be pretty seasonable. As the upper-level trough moves offshore Saturday, a large upper ridge will be expanding from the central U.S. northeastward over our area along with surface high pressure, so this should lead to a pretty nice looking weekend. The one thing we`ll have to watch is the potential for a cutoff low to form off the mid-Atlantic or SE Coast as that upper trough exits. Right now it looks like the ridge would keep any moisture away from the area. Saturday will be another seasonably warm day, but with the upper ridge pushing more into the area Sunday, this can lead to a milder day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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With plenty of low level moisture present and some lingering showers (especially for KAVP), widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are expected this morning, with occasional IFR ceilings possible at KAVP. KSYR and KRME are VFR and are expected to remain that way through the entire TAF period. Gradual improvement in ceiling restrictions is expected by late-morning/early afternoon, but lingering restrictions are possible into the afternoon and perhaps evening, especially at KAVP. All other terminals are expected to return to VFR by late this afternoon/early this evening. Outlook... Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR, except for possible morning valley fog at KELM.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...BJG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.