National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 251054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Some lingering rain showers and drizzle are expected today,
especially across Northeast PA, but otherwise conditions will
be gradually drying out. Dry and seasonable weather is then
expected for most of the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
610 AM Update:

Made some minor adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours to
better reflect latest radar trends. Still quite a few light rain
showers around, mainly east of I-81 (and mainly across the
Poconos-Catskills). Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and
the previous discussion remains valid.

315 AM Update:

The remnants of Ophelia will finally be kicked off to the east
today which will bring an end to the steadier rainfall. However,
with a easterly onshore flow, low clouds and drizzle/very light
rain showers will linger around through the day today,
especially across Northeast PA to the Catskills. Farther north
in Central NY (especially along and north of the NY Thruway
corridor), partly to even mostly sunny skies are expected to
break out. The extensive cloud cover/drizzle to the south will
keep temperatures cooler today, while the partial sunshine to
the north will bring warmer temperatures. Highs from the Twin
Tiers southward are expected to only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s, while the rest of Central NY will have highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

A continued easterly flow will keep the clouds and
drizzle/isolated light rain showers around tonight for Northeast
PA to the Catskills, but elsewhere, dry conditions are expected
along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows are expected to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the area, with
lower to mid 40s for parts of the Catskills-Tug Hill.

Although still cannot rule out some lingering drizzle/isolated
light showers across Northeast PA Tuesday morning, Tuesday will
feature mainly dry weather along with gradual clearing skies as
high pressure across southern Quebec starts to drift southward
into our region. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with
highs expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update:

A broad surface high over eastern Canada and New England will
be nosing down into our area along with a surge of dry air at
the mid and upper levels which will promote dry conditions over
the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Skies will be
clear to partly cloudy Tuesday night and with mostly calm winds
in place overnight, it will be a pretty chilly night.
Temperatures were lowered a bit below guidance as a result.
There is still ample moisture in the lower levels that could
result in some valley areas of the Catskills and up on the Tug
Hill to see some patchy frost as temperatures could reach the
mid 30s. Lows elsewhere Tuesday night will be primarily in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunshine will be mixed with some patchy
clouds Wednesday with high temperatures mostly in the mid-to-
upper 60s. With more clouds in the area Wednesday, overnight
lows won`t be quite as chilly as it will drop back into the low-
to-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 AM Update:

The surface high will start to weaken a little on Thursday and
shift a bit to the north and east. While it will remain dry,
this will allow for an upper-level low moving east from the
Midwest to shift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
This low does seem to weaken and perhaps become an open trough
of low pressure as it moves through the area Thursday night
into Friday. With an east-northeasterly flow in place, there can
be enough moisture as this feature moves through to result in
some spotty showers, but PoPs will be capped at a slight chance
for now. Highs Thursday and Friday will be pretty seasonable.

As the upper-level trough moves offshore Saturday, a large
upper ridge will be expanding from the central U.S.
northeastward over our area along with surface high pressure,
so this should lead to a pretty nice looking weekend. The one
thing we`ll have to watch is the potential for a cutoff low to
form off the mid-Atlantic or SE Coast as that upper trough
exits. Right now it looks like the ridge would keep any moisture
away from the area. Saturday will be another seasonably warm
day, but with the upper ridge pushing more into the area Sunday,
this can lead to a milder day with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With plenty of low level moisture present and some lingering
showers (especially for KAVP), widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate
ceiling restrictions are expected this morning, with occasional
IFR ceilings possible at KAVP. KSYR and KRME are VFR and are
expected to remain that way through the entire TAF period.
Gradual improvement in ceiling restrictions is expected by
late-morning/early afternoon, but lingering restrictions are
possible into the afternoon and perhaps evening, especially at
KAVP. All other terminals are expected to return to VFR by late
this afternoon/early this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR, except for possible morning
valley fog at KELM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG