Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 190114 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 914 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Just a few flurries overnight, but more scattered snow showers are expected at least in Central New York Tuesday as a weak disturbance passes, perhaps mixed with rain at lower elevations. A low pressure system will gradually move through Wednesday night through Friday with mainly rain showers at first, but mixing with snow showers as cooler air moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 900 PM Update... Snow showers have held their own the last few hours in Central New York, harnessing the last bit of diurnal instability including brief bursts of a quarter to half mile visibility. Magnitude of the snow showers now, however, is starting to drop off and will diminish to flurries as we get deeper into the evening. Forecast pretty much on track. For Central NY Tuesday, I did adjust higher on the decisive temperature for snow showers versus mixed rain/snow. Despite highs of upper 30s-lower 40s for most of the region, dewpoints will only be mid teens to lower 20s which will allow for a lot of wet bulbing, thus making it a challenge for plain rain showers to occur. Previous discussion... Scattered snow showers across central New York will end this evening as the surface trough moves through and daytime instability ends. Skies will become mainly clear to partly cloudy overnight with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. Tuesday...Another mid level wave is forecast to cross central New York during the late morning through afternoon period. This feature combined with diurnal instability and steep low/mid level lapse rates will bring more scattered snow/rain showers to central New York. The most widespread coverage will be across the northern Susquehanna region and western Catskills. Highs will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday night...A dry period as as upper level heights rise and surface high pressure moves off the New Jersey coast. Overnight lows will range in the upper teens to mid 20s, under mainly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... After a quiet Wednesday, a trough swinging into the Great Lakes will spread a mix of light rain and snow showers across the region Wednesday night. A secondary storm will form along the southern end of the trough and move up the Atlantic seaboard on Thursday. A few wet snow showers are possible early Thursday, then temperatures will warm well into the 40s with additional rain showers expected during the afternoon. The Atlantic cyclone will pull colder air into the region Thursday night and change the leftover rain showers to snow showers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A trough rotating out of Canada across NY will cause a few snow and rain showers over our forecast area on Friday and Friday night. After a storm moving up the east coast departs Northern New England early Saturday, milder air associated with a southeastern dome of high pressure will spread toward NY and PA beneath a building ridge. Temperatures will peak in the lower-40s across the Twin Tiers on Saturday, then rapidly warm into the 50s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered snow showers for several of the NY terminals as of 00Z, will quickly diminish this evening with loss of daytime instability. Mainly VFR conditions are figured through the TAF period. Another weak disturbance will cross the region Tuesday bringing isolated to scattered snow showers for the NY terminals, possibly mixed with rain. Air overall will be rather dry, and confidence is not high enough at this time to include SN/RASN nor restrictions in the TAFs. Winds will be variable or light west overnight, becoming west 5-10 knots during the day. Outlook... Tuesday night/Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions likely in rain showers as a system enters the region. Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in snow or mixed rain-snow showers on the back side of a system. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP

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