Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 231105 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 705 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Some morning showers linger in Northeast Pennsylvania mainly east of Interstate 81, as well as in Central New York generally southeast of Interstate 88. However, the responsible front will continue to move further away, allowing drier air to overtake the area. High pressure will be in charge for the next few days with mostly dry weather and slightly below average temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 340 AM Update... Quiet and cooler-than-average weather is taking shape for today through Wednesday, as drier air moves into the region with gradually building high pressure. Front is well beyond the area, yet a stream of moisture and isentropic lift behind the front will keep some light showers lingering for a time this morning, mainly east of Interstate 81 in Northeast PA and southeast of Interstate 88 in Central NY. Also, isolated instability showers could still manage to pop in early afternoon around Steuben-Yates-Seneca-Schuyler counties. However, overall drier air will be gradually overtaking the region, riding in light northwesterly winds. Clouds will gradually decreasing from west to east, and dewpoints will fall into the 50s. After days of humidity this will be a pretty noticeable change. Highs today will be generally 70s. Clearing will continue tonight with rather chilly lows in the 50s. Our normally coolest radiational cooling valleys could even manage lower 50s. At the surface high pressure will continue to take charge Wednesday, with highs of 70s to near 80. However, aloft we will actually still have an upper trough swinging through the area. The surface heating offered from a mostly sunny sky combined with cool air passing aloft will cause a scattered diurnal cumulus field to develop. While moisture will be very limited, there may be just enough of it for isolated showers to be included in parts of Central New York. Vast majority of locations will remain dry, however, for an overall pleasant day. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday night...Upper level trough axis moves from the forecast area to western New England as surface ridging occurs over the area. A dry period with mainly clear skies and lows generally in the lower to middle 50s. Thursday...Weak mid level waves in northwest flow along with diurnal instability will bring a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Best chance for thunderstorms will across the southern tier where 30 POPs will be advertised, just slight chance north. The far southeast should remain dry. Highs will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thursday night...Upper level heights start rising with surface high pressure stretching from New York to Virginia. A mainly clear night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A flat upper level ridge builds over the northeast during the long term. Temperatures warm during the period as a persistent southwest flow develops on the back side of high pressure situated along the east coast. Friday through Saturday night looks dry but Sunday through Monday will carry chance/slight chance POPs for thunderstorms as the ridge flattens and mid level waves possibly initiate convection. A better chance for thunderstorms occurs on Tuesday as a surface cold front approaches the region. Saturday through Monday, high temperatures will range from the mid 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Abundant low level moisture, trapped behind a departing showery front, initially caused restrictions overnight. However, rapid improvement is underway just after dawn. KSYR-KRME-KITH are already VFR; the other terminals are on their way there as a light northwesterly wind of around 4-8 knots brings drier air into the region. This will will lift and scatter clouds into VFR by mid morning KELM and midday KBGM-KAVP. VFR prevails for remainder of TAF period, except for likely late night valley fog development for at least KELM and possibly others. KELM could get near airport minimums 08Z-12Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR, but isolated afternoon showers or storms possible for NY terminals. Friday and Saturday...VFR other than possible predawn valley fog at KELM each morning.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MDP

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