000
FXUS61 KBGM 190114
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
914 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Just a few flurries overnight, but more scattered snow showers
are expected at least in Central New York Tuesday as a weak
disturbance passes, perhaps mixed with rain at lower elevations.
A low pressure system will gradually move through Wednesday
night through Friday with mainly rain showers at first, but
mixing with snow showers as cooler air moves into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
900 PM Update...
Snow showers have held their own the last few hours in Central
New York, harnessing the last bit of diurnal instability
including brief bursts of a quarter to half mile visibility.
Magnitude of the snow showers now, however, is starting to drop
off and will diminish to flurries as we get deeper into the
evening.

Forecast pretty much on track. For Central NY Tuesday, I did
adjust higher on the decisive temperature for snow showers versus
mixed rain/snow. Despite highs of upper 30s-lower 40s for most
of the region, dewpoints will only be mid teens to lower 20s
which will allow for a lot of wet bulbing, thus making it a
challenge for plain rain showers to occur.

Previous discussion...
Scattered snow showers across central New York will end this
evening as the surface trough moves through and daytime
instability ends. Skies will become mainly clear to partly
cloudy overnight with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.

Tuesday...Another mid level wave is forecast to cross central
New York during the late morning through afternoon period. This
feature combined with diurnal instability and steep low/mid
level lapse rates will bring more scattered snow/rain showers to
central New York. The most widespread coverage will be across
the northern Susquehanna region and western Catskills. Highs
will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday night...A dry period as as upper level heights rise and
surface high pressure moves off the New Jersey coast. Overnight
lows will range in the upper teens to mid 20s, under mainly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After a quiet Wednesday, a trough swinging into the Great Lakes
will spread a mix of light rain and snow showers across the
region Wednesday night.

A secondary storm will form along the southern end of the trough
and move up the Atlantic seaboard on Thursday. A few wet snow
showers are possible early Thursday, then temperatures will warm
well into the 40s with additional rain showers expected during
the afternoon.

The Atlantic cyclone will pull colder air into the region
Thursday night and change the leftover rain showers to snow
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough rotating out of Canada across NY will cause a few snow
and rain showers over our forecast area on Friday and Friday
night.

After a storm moving up the east coast departs Northern New
England early Saturday, milder air associated with a
southeastern dome of high pressure will spread toward NY and PA
beneath a building ridge.

Temperatures will peak in the lower-40s across the Twin Tiers on
Saturday, then rapidly warm into the 50s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered snow showers for several of the NY terminals as of
00Z, will quickly diminish this evening with loss of daytime
instability. Mainly VFR conditions are figured through the TAF
period. Another weak disturbance will cross the region Tuesday
bringing isolated to scattered snow showers for the NY
terminals, possibly mixed with rain. Air overall will be rather
dry, and confidence is not high enough at this time to include
SN/RASN nor restrictions in the TAFs. Winds will be variable or
light west overnight, becoming west 5-10 knots during the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions likely in rain
showers as a system enters the region.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
snow or mixed rain-snow showers on the back side of a system.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP