000
FXUS61 KBGM 270017
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
817 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will allow showers and thunderstorms
to continue across the region this evening and tonight. A few
showers may linger into Monday morning. High pressure with dry
and cooler weather takes control late Monday through at least
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
635 PM update...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with embedded wind gusts 30
to 40 mph and heavy downpours will continue into this evening
along the initial lead short wave. A trailing cold front,
currently moving into western PA, will sweep to the east tonight
and produce another round of showers and some weaker
thunderstorms. The main threat later tonight with convection
along the cold front will be for heavy rain that could lead to
some isolated flash flooding. Rainfall rates this evening have
peaked around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour...and with the second
around of rain later, the rates should be less than 0.5 inch per
hour, but may cause issues in locations where the antecedent
conditions are already saturated.

3 pm update...

Hardly any changes. The cap has broken in central PA and western
NY and showers and thunderstorms have formed. Movement is slow
so rainfall rates are on the high side. A few thunderstorms also
showing decent winds despite only 10 to 15 kts of shear. Weak
low level convergence but deep moisture is increasing. Winds
will also increase as the cold front and upper level trough
approach tonight. Shear increases to 20 to 25 kts. Precipitable
water increases to around 2 inches. A deep saturated warm layer
to 12k feet will also help with rainfall efficacy. Temperatures
in the 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the 60s have produced
cape values in excess of 1000J/kg.

The biggest thunderstorms into the evening could have wind gusts
to 30 or 40 mph especially when they collapse. The bigger threat
will be for isolated flash flooding. Some of the thunderstorms
are now in the area that got heavy rain less than a week ago in
Steuben County. Most likely the better chance for flash flooding
will be the main line this evening. Right now have had several
dry days and can easily take an inch of rain in less than an
hour. Any flooding will probably need multiple rounds of rain.
Average rainfall amounts around half an inch.

The cold front moves through late tonight ending the rain from
northwest to southeast. The rain moves out of Sullivan and Pike
Counties by 11 am. Low temperatures in the 60s.


Monday is looking mostly dry now for much of our area. Drier
sinking air moves behind the front. High temperatures will range
from the low and mid 70s along the NYS Thruway and western
Catskills to around 80 for the Wyoming Valley and Pike
County`s Delaware River Valley.

Monday night the upper level trough moves through possibly with
some light rain showers in Oneida County. Across south central
NY and NEPA clear skies and calm winds will allow the
temperatures to drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 PM Update...

Dry and quiet weather will be likely through the middle of the week
as high pressure builds in by Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler
than normal Tuesday, peaking only in the 70s under sunny skies
before falling back into the upper 40s and lower 50s overnight.

Most of the area will remain dry and sunny Wednesday. However, a
stray shower or rumble of thunder is not totally out of the question
across the Finger Lakes with a weak upper trough and co-located
upper jet streak moving through. This would have to combat a pretty
dry airmass and a sprawling surface high over much of the eastern
US, so confidence is quite low. Otherwise, expect a warming trend to
begin, with more seasonable highs ranging  from the mid 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM update...

Behind the exiting upper trough, dry weather will continue through the
rest of the work week with increasing temperatures. Expect highs in
the 80s across much of the area Thursday, and even into the 90s
Friday. Our next real shot at any rain/thunderstorms will hold off
until later Friday evening into Saturday. The ridge axis starts to
shift eastward, and a pretty broad trough will begin digging into
the upper Great Lakes. This will in turn set up a diffuse
temperature gradient over the region, which could be a source for
some lift into the weekend. PWATs will be on the increase, with some
of the guidance suggesting values as high as 1 to 2 inches.
Meanwhile, soundings indicate fairly light winds throughout much of
the column, while profiles turn saturated with steep warm cloud
depths. Further, this frontal system does not look to be very
progressive, with the weak cold front only slowly slagging through
during the course of the day. So, Saturday will need to be watched
for any potential hydro issues, though it should be noted that this
will be proceeded by several mainly dry and sunny days. Expect
temperatures to run cooler than on Friday given the increase in
clouds and potential for rainfall, but highs still range in the 70s
and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the area.
RME and BGM will have a chance to see MVFR conditions as
heavier rain showers move over the terminals over the next hour.


An approaching cold front will generate more showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the overnight hours. The initial
showers should keep ceilings above MVFR, but heavier downpours
could drop visibilities down to MVFR. Because of this
uncertainty on timing for MVFR ceilings and isolated heavy
showers, tempos were used across all terminals to bring in the
lower ceilings and visibilities. Once in place, MVFR to fuel
alt ceilings should last until the early morning hours when a
cold front passes through. Rain will end before 12z across the
area but ceilings will take a few hours to rise after the
frontal passage. VFR conditions are expected by late morning
across all terminals.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Possibly some restrictions during the early morning hours due to
valley fog at KELM most likely Wednesday morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...JTC