000
FXUS61 KBGM 240851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area spinning out of the Ohio Valley will bring
a mix of rain,snow and brief freezing rain to Central New York
and Northeast Pennsylvania late tonight through Sunday. Scattered
snow showers along with seasonable temperatures continue into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Another dry day ahead with high clouds spread across the area as
high pressure slides off the east coast and an approaching cyclone
moves into the lower Midwest. Temperatures starting in the 20s this
morning peak in the upper 30s to mid 40s during the afternoon with
light southeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The biggest change with this update has been with precip type
overnight. Precipitation spreads into our area after 0Z as the
cyclone becomes vertically stacked and spins over Indiana and Ohio.
Models continue to come in warmer, with 850 mb temperatures up to 1C
to 3C Saturday morning while surface temperatures fall into the low
30s and even upper 20s across the highest elevations. Precipitation
will thus fall mainly as rain but mix in with freezing rain Saturday
morning where surface temperatures can drop to near and below
freezing. Rain, and possibly some pockets of freezing rain,
continues through Saturday afternoon with an occluded front passing
through.

A lull in rain activity is expected into Saturday evening
especially across our southern zones with the front out to the east
and the upper level low starting to track across Erie and Ontario.
Temperatures aloft finally start to drop back Saturday night into
early Sunday as overnight lows drop to the low 30s, allowing for
rain to start to mix in with snow if not changing over entirely
overnight. Rain and snow continues the rest of Sunday, mainly across
our central NY zones, with the system slowly moving out and
continuing to pump moisture into our area. Highs in the mid to upper
30s are expected Sunday.

As far as rain, snow, and ice totals go, looking at rain
accumulations up to a half to three quarters of an inch, with some
minor within-bed rises across our streams. Some light ice
accumulations are possible mainly across our highest elevations
Saturday, but with road surface temperatures likely coming in fairly
warm given warm afternoon temperatures both Friday and Saturday,
significant travel impacts would not be expected. Snow totals
continue to be pulled back as we now look to miss out entirely on
snow until Saturday night. Less than an inch across most of the
area, while the higher elevations around the Thruway and towards the
Tug Hill pick up around 1 to 2 inches. Will continue to mention
potential snow and ice accumulations in our HWO, but with snow
totals continuing to drop and ice accumulations occurring during a
brief window and mainly over the higher elevations early Saturday,
we will hold off on any advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

330 AM Update...

Seasonably cold northwest flow under a broad upper level trough
continues Monday through Wednesday across the region, with
scattered snow showers around. Looks to dry out by Thursday as
upper level ridging builds over the region, with temperatures
remaining near average.

Initially, Monday into Monday night the upper level low over
northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes may wrap some
synoptic moisture back into the area. This should support high
chance to low end likely PoPs for lake effect/enhanced snow
showers across much of Central NY and into the far northern tier
of PA. This tapers to perhaps a few flurries, but mainly dry
weather toward the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA, Pike and
southern Sullivan (NY) counties. 850mb temperatures are forecast
to be around -6C to -9C Monday and Monday night...so again just
cold enough for lake enhanced showers. Initially the flow is
forecast to be 280-290 degrees for most of Monday, but then
there is good agreement amongst the guidance that a secondary
front/trough pushes through from north to south late in the
day...with the flow turning more toward 310-320 degrees Monday
night. These details can of course fluctuate or change a bit as
we get closer in time. Snow accumulations remain uncertain at
this time. Things going for accumulations are the added synoptic
wrap around moisture...parameters going against include
relatively mild boundary layer and surface temperatures and the
snow growth region is progged to be at the top of the cloud
layer (550-700mb or 10-15k ft agl).

Tuesday through Wednesday: The previously mentioned upper level
low exits well off to the northeast. The area remains under a
broad northwest flow pattern, with a few shortwaves or clipper
type systems moving through. Will continue to mention a chance
of snow showers for much of CNY this period. Remaining seasonably
cold, with 850mb temperatures hovering between -7C to -10C this
period...giving high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid-30s
and overnight lows mainly in the 20s.

By Thursday, latest guidance shows ridging at the surface and
aloft moving into the region from the Ohio Valley...this should
act to turn the lake effect machine off...with mostly dry
weather forecast. We reintroduce chances for snow or rain
showers into the forecast by next Friday as a weak low pressure
system moves into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures remain
near or slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR expected throughout the TAF period.

Current satellite and observations do show a patch of MVFR CIGS
across SE PA early this morning, and these lower level clouds
(015-025 ft agl) are drifting off to the north. These could
bring some tempo sct to bkn MVFR or fuel alternate level clouds
to KAVP this morning. Otherwise, a few or sct lower level clouds
could reach KBGM, KITH and KELM late morning into the afternoon.
Besides this, expect bkn to ovc high clouds between 10k to 25k
ft agl through the next 24 hours.

Southeast winds less than 10 kts gradually increase by late
evening, between 7-15 kts. Of note is that low level wind shear
(LLWS) is expected to develop at all terminals (except KRME)
after about 25/02-03z...out of the southeast (140-150 degs)
upwards of 40-50kts at 2k ft agl.

Outlook...

Late tonight through Sunday...IFR conditions possible with a
wintry mix of rain and snow likely. Patchy freezing rain
possible early Saturday morning.

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional restrictions especially CNY in
snow showers. Mainly VFR at KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MJM/MWG