Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000 FXUS63 KBIS 011142 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 542 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Updated sky cover to account for areas low level stratus west and central and increasing mid level clouds streaming in from the northwest. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 No forecast highlights in the short term period. Currently, northwest flow aloft with a deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and an amplifying ridge across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure developing south into the Northern Plains early this morning. Area of low stratus ahead of the sfc high across across southwest and south central ND, expanding northward across western ND where winds have become south/southeasterly. BKN-OVC mid level cloud deck moving southeast into northwest ND. For today, we start out with lingering clouds this morning, with sky cover trending mostly clear during the day. Strong WAA across the west today, coupled with a clearing sky and strong mixing, will result in mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Went with the higher end of NBM guidance for highs with the mixing expected. Much milder lows tonight as WAA continues to spread east across the region, and we maintain a steady west/southwest wind. Lows will range in the mid 20s to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Zonal flow aloft will be maintained through Wednesday, with a weak cold front moving through the region Tuesday. Still, mild/well above seasonal temperatures expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50s south and lower 40s north. Upper level ridge amplifies across the Rockies and eventually moves into the Great Plains Friday into Saturday. Opted to maintain above NBM guidance for daytime highs both days, going again with a mean/75 percentile NBM blend. While models have backed off a tad on highs, this still results in forecast highs into the 60s southwest on Friday and west and south central on Saturday. Still think there is a chance of seeing 70 degrees southwest on Saturday with models indicating strong southerly mixing, along with the potential for fire weather concerns with min RH values in the lower 20s southwest. Uncertainty ramps up for the second half of the weekend, specifically regarding an upper level S/WV trough moving into the western CONUS Sat and its track, timing, and impact over our region on Sunday. The EC ensemble mean is trending towards higher 500mb heights on Sunday, while the GEFS ensemble mean is trending lower. Both models are mainly dry, with temperatures the biggest uncertainty. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Tricky morning forecast with lingering low level MVFR and pockets of IFR stratus across west and central ND early this morning, along with a mid level cloud deck streaming in from the north/northwest. The cloudy conditions this morning will make way for decreasing clouds from west to east after 14Z. VFR conditions after this morning, with low level wind shear also expected tonight for most terminals. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...NH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.