Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000 FXUS63 KBIS 280638 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1238 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 For this update, expanded the mention of areas of fog across the east with plenty of webcams and observations now showing locally dense fog in many locations across portions of the James River Valley and Turtle Mountains. It remains to be seen how long this dense fog will last in these locations with snow starting to move in, so opted to put out a Special Weather Statement for the potential for now. Will also have to keep an eye on additional fog development behind the snow pushing through central North Dakota at the moment. UPDATE Issued at 945 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Radar starting to light up across northwest/north central North Dakota where low level forcing/frontogensis (as depicted by the latest RAP) increases now through 06Z and will shift south- southeast across central ND through 08-10Z. Thus the forecast remains on track for tonight as gridded POPs increase over the aforementioned area over the next few hours. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast but overall everything remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Main updates for this evening were to adjust sky cover and POPs based on latest radar/sat imagery and high res model trends. Overall POPs were only adjusted to account for a slight westward shift depicted by high res models for the enhanced area of snow developing south across central ND this evening/overnight. Snow totals some areas may approach 2 inches, though overall still expect half an inch to around one inch within the area of snowfall. Added fog on the western edge of the snow (along to east of the Missouri River and west of the James River Valley) as the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP advertise. Seems reasonable given this area will be on the western edge of a low stratus deck parked over my eastern counties. Otherwise loaded NBM bias corrected hourly T/Td through tonight to capture latest trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Continued snow chances highlight the short-term forecast. Some weak surface frontogenesis and mid-level ascent continue to produce some scattered light precipitation across central North Dakota this afternoon. A brief lull in activity is expected this evening before another wave moves in. A narrow band of snow is expected to develop across central ND this evening as low-level frontogenesis and mid-level ascent develop along a surface trough centered across ND. The mid-level wave will move through rather quickly tonight, but a quick half inch to maybe as much as an inch of snow may fall across portions of central ND. Some light precipitation may linger through the morning hours Friday across the James River Valley as an upper-level jet streak remains nearby. Overall, Friday will be a pleasant day with westerly winds and temperatures climbing into the 40s for most. Friday and Saturday will be productive snow melting days. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 The extended forecast is highlighted by mostly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. With continued warm air advection and an upper-level ridge building in expect even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with the southwest seeing the lower 50s. However, clouds will start filtering in again ahead of an approaching cold front that will swing through Saturday night. Although very little if any precipitation is expected with this front, temperatures will drop to near normal on Sunday (highs in the 30s), with similar conditions for the start of the work week. Next week looks very similar to what we experienced this week, with several waves moving through, but generally mild and dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 An area of light to moderate snow will quickly push south- southeast across central North Dakota early this morning, with KMOT/KBIS/KJMS seeing a period of IFR VIS in this band of snow now through 10Z, exiting KMOT by 07Z. IFR stratus deck with some fog will impact KJMS through the night and well into Friday morning before conditions improve Friday afternoon. This stratus deck along with some fog will develop east early this morning and may impact KBIS as well with IFR conditions through 13-15Z. KXWA/KDIK remain VFR through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...NH

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