Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 190055
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
755 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 730 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024

No major changes were made to the forecast for tonight. Looking
for cooler conditions tonight as compared to last night.
Conditions will be generally clear except for a few mid/high
clouds that will scrape the SRN 1/3 of AL this evening. Gusty
winds from today will begin to taper down as the surface ridge
center moves closer to us settling in over the Deep South this
evening. A freeze warning remains in effect for all of C AL
tonight from 1-9 AM CDT for lows of mid-upper 20s N half and
upper 20s-lower 30s S.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024

No significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected
through the short term period. Skies will be clear by late this
afternoon with gusty NW winds quickly becoming light after
sunset. Dry weather through the forecast.

Temps still on track to be below freezing across the CWA with min
temps now as low as 25 in the northern counties and likely even
cooler readings in northern and/or higher elevation valleys. Will
continue Freeze Warning for entire area unless we hear otherwise.

Tuesday night temps also expected to approach freezing again but
confidence in any kind of Freeze Watch is low at this time. Frost
appears likely but will defer to later shifts to issue so that
messaging can focus on upcoming freeze event tonight.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024

No major forecast challenges or weather hazards expected through
the long term period.

Overall pattern mostly dominated by NW flow aloft and associated
subsidence through Thursday.

Next wave somewhat weak and positively-tilted, slides in southern
stream late Thursday and Friday with sufficient warm/moist
advection over the region for at least light showers. Moisture
return expected to be insufficient for any kind of instability but
forecast obviously will change between now and then. Back to WNW
flow and dry/clear wx starting Sat but could see some high clouds
on Sunday.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024

Gusty NW winds will taper down over the next few hours and will
get light in the late hours before sunrise as the surface ridge
settles in over the Deep South and surface pressure gradients
relax some. Look for W winds on Tue afternoon 5-9kts with mixing.
Conditions will be VFR and generally clear except for a few
mid/high clouds scraping across the SRN 1/3 of the state this
evening.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy northwest winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 28 mph will
decrease quickly after sunset to 5-10 mph before becoming light
and variable by sunrise then west at 5-10 mph during the day
Tuesday. Much drier conditions also expected Tuesday with
afternoon RH dropping to 20-30%.

The next chance for measurable rain won`t be until Thursday
night and Friday when up to one half inch of rain is expected.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     25  58  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    28  59  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  29  58  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  30  60  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      30  58  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      32  58  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  30  59  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        32  61  37  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08/SNELSON
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...08


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