870
FXUS64 KBMX 150521
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

 - There is a medium to high chance for severe weather tonight
   into Monday morning. There`s increasing concern for widespread
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

 - Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system will result in
   winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this
   afternoon and tonight.

 - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures
   Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Severe weather is expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

A deep trough with a strong low pressure system is expected to slide
through the Central US and push a cold front into Central Alabama.
We`re expecting a line of storms to move quickly along that frontal
boundary. Widespread damaging wind appears to be the highest threat;
however, strong low level and deep layer shear will certainly raise
the potential for a few embedded tornadoes with this line.
Currently, the lines of storms is expected to move into Central
Alabama around 9pm - 11pm and exit the region to our southeast by 6-
7 am Monday morning.

Instability doesn`t appear to be as much of an uncertainty as it
has been in the past few days. Latest model trends have become
more consistent with anywhere between 700-1200 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE. Given the strong dynamics and strong low level jet,
this should easily be able to support the severe storms that are
shown, along with supporting embedded tornadoes.

Monday will be much colder just after this cold front moves through.
Monday daytime highs are only expected to top out in the 40s for
most locations. A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning with at least a low to medium chance for a hard
freeze for some of our colder locations across the north on Tuesday
morning. Broad high pressure builds across the region for the
remainder of next week, keeping Central AL rain free and moderating
to more seasonable temperatures as we go through the second half of
the week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions for the 15 to 18 hours through 00z. Showers and
storms move in after 00z along with MVFR conditions for the north.
Just MVFR clouds will impact AUO and MGM by 6z. Strong southerly
winds will be possible as well after 18z with gusts up to 30 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will climb into the upper-40 and low-50% range today
ahead of the cold front, with rain chances increasing into the
overnight hours. However, MinRH values will quickly drop by Tuesday,
as cool, dry air blasts into the region. MinRH values could drop
into the low-20% range for some locations, with sustained winds near
10 MPH at times. MinRH values will slightly rebound the next two
days, but should generally remain below 30% through the middle of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  39  43  24 /   0  90  30   0
Anniston    78  42  44  24 /   0  90  40   0
Birmingham  78  39  44  27 /  10 100  30   0
Tuscaloosa  80  40  46  25 /   0 100  20   0
Calera      80  41  46  25 /  10  90  30   0
Auburn      78  48  49  29 /   0  90  60   0
Montgomery  80  46  48  27 /   0  90  40   0
Troy        80  49  50  28 /   0  80  50   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Monday for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...25/Owen
AVIATION...16