605
FXUS64 KBMX 270151
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
851 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 843 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

A few boundaries were in and near Central Alabama early this
evening. One was south, south of I-85/US 80. Another as near the
Georgia stateline and extending northwest. Neither boundary was
associated with much surface based convergence. Therefore, do not
have great chances of rain overnight. We even have a relative
minimum in humidity overhead but precipitable water values was
still near 2 inches. Some adjustments were made with pops, but
any showers/storms will be limited in coverage. No changes in
Saturday forecast were necessary. It appears that scattered to
numerous showers and storms will develop by afternoon.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

Tonight.

The general weakness aloft will persist over the Mid-South and
ArkLaTex region while a few mid-level disturbances continue to
move northeast roughly along the Natchez Trace Parkway extent. The
surface front to our north will slowly drift south, extending
from the Northern Plains southeast into Central Tennessee
overnight. Expansive surface high pressure will migrate east,
becoming centered over Southwest New York State after midnight.

Isolated showers and a few storms will be possible across the
western third of the area tonight with lower chances further to
the east and southeast. Patchy fog is expected to develop across
portions of the northern and eastern counties before sunrise on
Saturday. Winds will become northeast at 2-4 mph with low
temperatures ranging from around 70 across the northeast third of
the area to low and mid 70s southwest.

Saturday.

The mid-level weakness moves further west on Saturday, becoming
positioned over the Arkansas Ozarks. The surface front to our
north advances south into the area during the day Saturday while
more disturbances aloft move northeast over the northwest portion
of the area through the day.

Expect increasing clouds from the west during the day Saturday
with increasing chances for scattered showers and some
thunderstorms initially across the western counties early in the
morning, then expanding eastward through the rest of the day.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the
west-central counties and multiple rounds of heavy rain impacting
urban and poor drainage areas may result in water ponding. Winds
will become east to southeast at 5-10 mph and high temperatures
will range from the mid 80s far north to the low 90s southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

Latest guidance continues to indicate a change on the horizon in
at least the upper flow. The upper trough is currently situated
from New England SWWD into the Ohio Valley and SWWD back into TX.
A bit of energy breaks off over TX through AR as the main low
pushes E into the N Atlantic tonight into the weekend. On Sun it
looks to open up and become absorbed into the upper flow over the
Upper Midwest by late Sun as the ridge builds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Sun night into Mon, the upper ridge begins to spread WWD
across the SRN US. This will begin to change us over to weak NW
upper flow on Mon. In the lower levels, weak ridging will be
present over the SE US with rain chances going down for the latter
part of the extended. However, lower pops remain at times with
heating and helped with occasional NW upper flow impulses. With
lower pops, we will see slightly warmer highs each day.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

A shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Midwest and
Great Lakes region on Sunday. The base of the trough will pass
across the Tennessee Valley which will suppress the subtropical
ridge over the Gulf Coast while deep moisture remains in place
across the Southeast. This should lead to favorable chances for
numerous to widespread showers and storms during the day on Sunday
and again Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, deep-layer flow will
orient from the west to northwest which should bring some drier
air into the mix as a strong ridge begins to build over the Desert
Southwest. This will be the general pattern through the end of
the week which will result in lower PoPs overall, but there will
be impulses within the northwest flow that will support scattered
afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
will trend warmer by midweek with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 843 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

Generally a VFR forecast outside any convection. There may be some
MVFR ceilings/vis near TCL. But if it develops, it will be short
lived. Otherwise, some patchy fog here and there especially where
it briefly clears or gets cooler. Winds will be light. On
Saturday, showers and storms will increase in coverage through the
afternoon hours. Some MVFR and possible IFR conditions may develop
in storms. Started off with PROB30 at all locations and will
increase the likelihood on next issuance. Winds light easterly.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather elements are not expected to reach critical
thresholds over the next several days. Regional showers and
thunderstorms continue each day, varied in coverage, with high
relative humidity values and light 20 foot winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  87  70  86 /  20  40  30  80
Anniston    72  88  72  87 /  20  50  30  80
Birmingham  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  40  90
Tuscaloosa  74  90  73  88 /  20  70  40  90
Calera      74  89  73  88 /  20  60  40  90
Auburn      74  90  73  87 /  10  50  30  70
Montgomery  74  91  73  90 /  10  70  30  80
Troy        73  91  72  90 /  10  70  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...75