Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 211044
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
444 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CST WED FEB 21 2024

The next couple days will provide an early taste of spring across
Central Alabama. After a cold morning today, highs should make it
to around or above 70 in most areas today. Some areas east and
northeast will remain in the upper 60s. Again went above consensus
for highs and below consensus for dew points, following the
observed trend from the last few days. Minimum RH values are
likely to be down into the 20-30 percent range for areas east of
I-65 again today. Southerly surface winds will begin increasing
this afternoon and into Thursday, bringing a moisture increase
ahead of a cold front expected Thursday night. For highs Thursday,
trended higher again, with expected temps in the low to mid 70s,
especially south of I-20. Rain showers are expected to commence by
Thursday afternoon, especially in northwestern counties, before
increasing in coverage across much of the area by Thursday night.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST WED FEB 21 2024

A cold front will sweep across Alabama Thursday night in response to
a shortwave trough moving from the Mississippi Valley toward the
East Coast. With moisture increasing across the warm sector,
prefrontal showers should develop after sunset, with more organized
activity expected overnight along the cold front overnight. A few
embedded thunderstorms may occur within a convective band near the
front, but rainfall totals should generally remain less than 0.5
inch. Rain should exit our southern counties by 6 AM with breezy and
relatively mild conditions for Friday afternoon. Similar breezy
conditions are expected on Saturday as a secondary shortwave
moves through the Southern Appalachians.

A significant warming trend will begin on Sunday as low-level flow
shifts to the west and southwest. Temperatures in many locations in
the west and south should reach the lower 70s in the afternoon. The
warming trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday with persistent
southwesterly flow. 70s will become widespread, and some isolated
spots across the southwestern counties could reach the 80 degree
mark on Tuesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM CST WED FEB 21 2024

Skies should remain mostly clear through early afternoon before
coverage increases to BKN at TCL, EET, BHM, ASN, and ANB by this
evening. Surface winds will be variable this morning, less than 4
kts, before southerly flow increases up to 6-7 kts by this
afternoon at some sites. Otherwise, VFR cigs and vis will persist
through the period.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A residual dry airmass will continue to give way to increasing
moisture across West Alabama today with southerly 20 ft winds of
4-8 mph. RH values should range from 25 percent in the east to
30-40 percent in the west. Moisture will increase more rapidly on
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Breezy conditions are
expected with south to southwest 20 ft winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts of 20-25 mph. The front will move through Thursday night
with widespread light to moderate rain and a return to a drier
airmass for Friday with northwesterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  42  71  50 /   0   0  30  90
Anniston    71  44  72  51 /   0   0  20  90
Birmingham  70  47  71  51 /   0   0  30  90
Tuscaloosa  73  47  74  50 /   0   0  30  80
Calera      71  45  73  52 /   0   0  20  90
Auburn      69  42  71  55 /   0   0  10  80
Montgomery  72  42  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
Troy        73  42  76  58 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...12


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