358
FXUS64 KBMX 161754
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1254 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late
   Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions
   of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday
   afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama.
   Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A 591dam ridge is centered over the Gulf this afternoon with deep
southwesterly flow across Central Alabama bringing warm air into the
region. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s
today. An upper-level trough will gradually move east from the Upper
Plains across the Great Lakes region today through tomorrow with the
trough axis extending south into the Mid-South region, but with the
pattern notably less amplified over the Southeast due to the
opposing interaction between the trough and the subtropical ridge. A
nearly east to west oriented front will move south into the area
early tomorrow morning supporting convective activity from the
Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley. Models depict rather
disorganized convection in somewhat of a broken line or through a
few separate rounds which will move into northern portions of the
forecast area around midnight tonight, weakening with southern
extent through the early morning hours due to the lack of upper-
level support.

Despite lessening synoptic support, the preceding airmass will be
warm and unstable with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5-
7 C/km, and MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. Stronger winds aloft will also
support bulk shear values of 60-70 kts, so these conditions will be
more than enough to support a risk of strong to severe storms.
Damaging winds will be the primary concern, especially as the
activity becomes increasingly outflow driven, chasing the unstable
air. But the steep lapse rates could also support instances of large
hail up to quarter size as well. It certainly looks like
thunderstorm intensity and coverage will wane quickly by mid-morning
as the activity moves south of Birmingham.

There should be a break in the activity by late morning through
early afternoon as the remnant front and any leftover outflow
boundaries begin to stall across the southern portions of the area.
12Z CAMs still are not indicating much thunderstorm redevelopment
Saturday afternoon, but given the continued warm, unstable airmass
and weak surface lift, will continue to message the Marginal severe
risk during the afternoon with isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage expected. Models show best chances for redevelopment will
be across our southern half, but it ultimately depends on how the
morning convection evolves and where there are any lingering
boundaries to help initiate convection.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into
Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across
Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the
northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances
coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward
into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging
a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a
result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s
to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest
days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently
projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A cold front is moving closer to the region and supporting an
increase in cloud cover. VFR conditions will continue through the
afternoon until convection associated with the cold front arrives
late tonight. Coverage of storms is questionable, but went ahead and
mentioned TSRA for our northern terminals due to the risk for some
strong storms. Expect at least 1-2 hours of flight impacts at any
points from generally 09-12Z due to the passing thunderstorms. Then
IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the morning hours as
the cold front moves across the area. Expect prevailing surface
winds to remain from the southwest during this TAF period.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry trend continues today. Minimum RH values will be the 40s
south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters
the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing
off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45
percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  87  64  82 /  70  20  20  70
Anniston    69  87  67  83 /  50  30  20  60
Birmingham  69  87  68  83 /  60  30  30  60
Tuscaloosa  71  88  70  88 /  50  40  30  50
Calera      71  87  70  85 /  40  30  20  50
Auburn      70  87  69  84 /  10  30  20  30
Montgomery  71  90  69  91 /  10  30  20  30
Troy        70  90  68  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...86/Martin