Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 040024
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
724 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Evening Update and 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0708 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020/

Tonight.

One small, relative, moisture pool was located along and ahead of
the quasi-stationary front at the Georgia state line. The storms
have produced several outflows that may initiate additional storms
the next few hours. Therefore, some small pops east. SBCAPE values
were still in the 2500 range and an upper cold trough was located
overhead. Downdraft CAPE values were 1000 or so. So a strong storm
or two is still possible with this activity. Some pea size hail,
wind gusts to 40 mph, and a brief downpour would be the threats.
Dry air exist over much of the central sections but another small,
relative moisture pool was along the next cold front back over
Mississippi. A few of these storms may far northwest areas before
dissipating. Added small pops there. Instability and shear values
are not as high as east, therefore, these storms should remain in
the general storm category. Overall, most locations remain dry
tonight.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0133 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020/

Tuesday.

The 500mb trough axis remains centered over the region into the
day on Tuesday with another surface front poised to move into the
southeast following the departure of Isaias. A few additional
showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the northern
half of Central Alabama Tuesday afternoon with some lingering
upper level forcing and lift from the surface front. Drier air
will begin to filter southward behind the front as early as
Tuesday evening with lower 60s dewpoints expected across our
northern counties which will feel very nice for this time of the
year.

56/GDG


.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020/

Wednesday through Sunday.

No significant changes were made to the extended time frame this
afternoon. The trend of the previous forecast remains intact.

A large area of relatively dry air within a large-scale trough will
affect most of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
This airmass may also cover most of our forecast area with
slightly higher moisture content across our eastern counties. If
there is a stray shower or storm, it should occur near the Georgia
border. Due to a stagnant weather pattern, a similar setup is
expected for Thursday and Friday with 20 percent rain chances
across the East.

The patch of residual dry air should decay over the weekend with
subsidence abating, and a slow increase in shower/storm coverage
may occur. Rain chances are forecast to rise from 20 percent on
Saturday to 30 percent on Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are forecast for all of the terminals this period.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Alabama/Georgia state
line the next few hours and a few storms may enter far northwest
areas north of TCL. This convection will not affect any of the
terminals in the short term. Drier overall conditions exist
between a relative moisture pool east and one west. Clear to
partly cloudy conditions can be expected overnight and did not
mention any fog or low clouds. Tuesday will see the moisture axis
move into Alabama from the west. But only isolated storms will
form in the heat of the day. At this time, did not mention at any
terminal. Winds will become light to calm overnight and swing to
the west at 6-11kts.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are possible today along and south of a
boundary near Interstate 20. Otherwise, below normal moisture
content should result in very limited rainfall activity through the
upcoming week. Light northwest or northerly winds are expected each
day through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  90  67  90  66 /  10  20   0  10  10
Anniston    68  91  68  91  69 /  10  20   0  10  10
Birmingham  70  90  69  90  69 /   0  20   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  70  91  70  91  69 /   0  20   0  10  10
Calera      69  89  69  89  69 /  10  10   0  10  10
Auburn      70  90  70  91  71 /  20  10   0  20  10
Montgomery  72  93  71  93  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
Troy        72  92  70  93  71 /  20  10   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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