Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241123
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the North Country will bring a few rain
showers to the region this morning, followed by sharply falling
temperatures through day. Unseasonably cold temperatures and dry
conditions are expected tonight through Sunday, with another round
wet weather arriving by Monday morning. Temperatures will stay below
normal during most of next week with several chances for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 723 AM EDT Saturday...Only minor changes needed to the
forecast for the next few hours to add some more precision to
fropa timing. Front is moving into the Adirondacks currently,
with KMSS dropping about 18 degrees in the past 2 hours.
Eastward locations will follow suit, and it still looks like the
front will clear the region by the noon hour.

.Previous Discussion...No major changes to the forecast for the
weekend with the main weather feature being a strong cold front
moving through the region today. Currently the boundary is
situated just to the west of the region over the Ottawa Valley
with some light scattered rain showers moving through the St.
Lawrence Valley. Expect showers to become more numerous in the
next few hours across northern New York as the front shifts
eastward, and then scattered showers will move across Vermont
towards sunrise through mid- morning, mainly across
central/northern areas. QPF will be rather light, and it likely
won`t rain at any one location for more than an hour, with
showers promptly exiting east after noon with a dry but mostly
cloudy afternoon expected. Based on the frontal passage timing,
highs for the day are occurring now from the Champlain Valley
northwestward in the low/mid 60s, and will warm into the
mid/upper 60s across southeast Vermont this morning, but temps
will fall sharply behind the front with 40s expected across
northern New York by early afternoon, and 50s across Vermont.

For tonight, clouds will linger under blocked northwest upslope
flow, mainly across the higher terrain with the deeper valleys
generally scattering out. 925-850mb temps crash to around -4C
overnight and winds lighten supporting a chilly night with lows area-
wide in the 20s and 30s. Little reprieve is expected during the day
Sunday as 925-850mb temps only warm slightly under partly cloudy
skies. Expect highs only in the 40s under light northerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...An inclement period of weather then
arrives later Sunday night and especially on Monday as low
pressure rides through the SLV into southern Canada, lifting the
front which passed through on Saturday back into the region.
Rain will arrive in earnest in the pre-dawn hours across
southwestern counties, then overspread the entire area through
the daylight hours on Monday, most focused north where
isentropic lift and low level frontogenetical forcing looks to
be greatest. There will be a brief 1-3 hour window of potential
light snow/mixed precipitation across sheltered valleys of the
Adirondacks, but quick boundary layer warming under increasing
southerly flow after sunrise will limit any impacts. Early lows
Sunday night to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s with values
slowly rising through the 30s after midnight. Highs on Monday
rather cool, holding in the 40s under clouds and rainfall.

Steadier rainfall then departs Monday evening as aforementioned
surface wave lifts well northeast, allowing the frontal boundary to
push back south through the region. Will maintain lower chances of
rain/snow shower activity to account for the frontal passage but any
snow accumulations in elevated terrain should be negligible. Lows to
range through the 30s under ample clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...By Tuesday sensible weather
conditions trend quieter. Another wave of low pressure will ride
along Monday`s frontal boundary well south of the region, so
chances of showers will continue across southern counties, but
generally dry weather is expected north. Highs top out mainly in
the 40s under light northerly flow.

Thereafter, a relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected for
the back half of the work week with weak high pressure generally in
control. Highs Wed-Thu generally top out in the 40s to lower 50s,
then cooler (40s) for Fri-Sat behind another front with fairly
limited moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Cold front continue to work across the
forecast area this morning with conditions dropping to MVFR
along and behind the boundary. All sites with the exception of
KPBG will continue to see MVFR ceilings through the day, with
some improvement to VFR at KRUT around 00Z and KBTV around
midnight. Otherwise, local IFR is likely at KSLK through 00Z
before lifting to MVFR. Brief gusty WSW winds up to 25kts are
possible just along the frontal passage, but will drop to 10kts
or less from the northwest behind it


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Likely FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely RA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 354 AM EDT Saturday...A Lake Wind Advisory continues for
southerly winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots this morning, but will
lower to less than 20 knots behind a cold front passage around
mid-day. Waves of 3 to 5 feet this morning will subside to 2 to
4 feet this afternoon, with hazardous conditions continuing
until tonight for small crafts.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Team BTV



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