874
FXUS61 KBTV 111927
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
327 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main feature through the next several
days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
That being said, expect haze from wildfire smoke, some high clouds
tomorrow, and a slight chance of showers on Friday in eastern
portions of Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 327 PM EDT Wednesday...Via CIRA geocolor satellite
imagery, a thin layer of high altitude wildfire smoke has been
sliding across our region from the west and northwest, causing a
hazy look to our skies. Given the presence of this smoke across
the entire Midwest and southern Canada, more haze can be
expected through the period. However, with very low
concentrations near the ground, impacts look minimal at this
time. Aside from that, some fair weather cumulus have bubbled up
over the northern Adirondacks into the lake convergence zone of
the western Champlain Valley along with the higher terrain
across northernmost Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. These
clouds will dissipate this evening, and fog will redevelop late
tonight, likely in the same areas where we saw it last night.

The center of high pressure which had been centered just to our
south will have drifted to the east, which should support increased
southerly winds rather than southwest/west flow that we saw today in
most locations. However, the pressure gradient looks minimal as
large ridge upstream over the Great Lakes region builds up and aids
in weakening an already weak boundary approaching from our
northwest. Its upper level feature will drag elevated moisture
aloft, so in addition to haze we should see some partly to perhaps
mostly cloudy skies associated with altocumulus, with most coverage
during the morning hours. Model guidance is in good agreement in
paltry moisture and lift beneath this cloud layer, so no rain is
expected anywhere with any precipitation being virga.

Continued low level warm air advection through this period will
support temperatures several degrees higher than today even with
some cloud cover; highs will be largely from the upper 70s to low
80s. Humidity will also come up a bit from today with most spots
seeing dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s, making the air feel
more summerlike while stopping short of being hot. Tomorrow night
will continue the gradual warming trend with very little change in
the large scale weather pattern. Low temperatures will mainly range
through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...A shortwave pivots through on Friday and
a weak surface cold front follows it. There looks to be just enough
instability and the shortwave looks to be just strong enough that
there could be a couple isolated showers in eastern Vermont. A
significant amount of dry air in the mid-upper levels and a bit of a
cap should help inhibit convection, but the ingredients still look
to be favorable enough for a couple showers to form. Temperatures
will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s during the day, and there will
be a touch of humidity with dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the front, but there will be
minimal airmass change and winds will be too light for much
advection. However, the front will be able to lower dew points
slightly. Winds will go calm overnight and it should be another
night with extensive fog in the climatologically favored valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...A rex block looks to prevail through
this period, with a weak storm containing some tropical
characteristics forming off the coast of the southeast, and an
extensive area of stationary high pressure centering over southern
Ontario. The region will be under the influence of the high pressure
and no meaningful rain is expected. Persistence is the theme of the
forecast, with minimal variability in the low and high temperatures.
The forecast highs and lows for Saturday-Wednesday generally do not
change more than 5 degrees, and the change is as small as 2-3
degrees in many areas. Temperatures will be above the climatological
normals and there will be a little bit of humidity, particularly in
the broad valleys. During the beginning and middle of next week,
tropical moisture will slowly move up the Atlantic Coast as the
center of the surface high pushes out to the east. However, it looks
like any showers would not be able to arrive until beyond the
forecast period, and there is still high model uncertainty if they
will even make it to the region at all.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Light winds, mainly out of the south or
locally southeast at PBG and southwest at SLK, will continue but
further diminishing after 00Z. Another night of high pressure
will support chances of fog, with persistence supporting LIFR
conditions at SLK between 08Z and 13Z, and between about 0930Z
and 11Z at MPV. Although some fog was observed last night at MSS
with similar light southwest low level flow, have low
confidence in any recurrence. After 12Z, some high clouds will
advance into northern portions of the airspace with no impacts
expected. Winds will remain light, with perhaps south winds at
BTV perking back up into the 7 to 10 knot range by 18Z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff