000
FXUS61 KBTV 041733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog will exist across the North Country early this
morning and then burn off by mid morning. Warmer temperatures
are expected this afternoon with highs in the 70s and even
warmer temperatures are expected on Friday with highs in the
80s. Relatively dry conditions are expected with only a slight
chance of light showers today and a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The areal coverage of showers
and storms will increase Friday night as a cold front moves into
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1009 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains in good track this
morning. Adjusted sky cover to account for clearer skies across
southern and central Vermont while cloud cover continues across
northern New York and northern Vermont. Water vapor imagery
shows a sheared apart shortwave over southern Ontario which
looks like it`ll clip the northern fringes of our forecast area
this afternoon. Based on the current trajectory of this
feature, we narrowed PoPs to the far reaches of our area this
afternoon with much of the area expected to remain on the dry
side. Enjoy the spring-like weather this afternoon!

Previous Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving out of
southeast Ontario and into southwest Quebec. This has helped to
develop an area of showers over the Saint Lawrence Valley early
this morning and feel as long as the shortwave continues to
track across southern Quebec Province today these showers should
persists and move across northern New York and the northern
half of Vermont today. Forecast already has a slight chance of
showers mentioned and have maintained this idea. Fog is still
being reported across the area early this morning, but should
burn off by mid-morning. Warm air advection associated with low
level westerly flow should allow most areas to reach into the
70s today.

Dry weather is expected tonight with relatively clear skies.
Lows will generally be in the 50s to around 60.

Even warmer temperatures are expected on Friday with highs in
the 80s as westerly low level flow persists. Low level lapse
rates will steepen in response to the warming low level
temperatures and based on a variety of forecast soundings feel
CAPE values will be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by afternoon.
While instability increases over our area composite analysis
continues to show the idea of forcing being confined to the
terrain. Frontal boundary remains west of the Saint Lawrence
Valley all day and does not move in until Friday night. Upper
trough remains well west of the area...back across the Great
Lakes region...and this is where the more favorable deep layer
shear will exist. There is a shortwave trough well to our south
that may help to concentrate convection across southern New
England. So with limited forcing and best deep layer shear west
of the area will continue with the idea of a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon. Convection
should be pulse in nature, but something that will definitely
need monitoring.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Thursday...No significant changes made to the
forecast for Friday night into Saturday as the expectant cold
front crosses the region between 03- 06z. Convective potential
looks limited to availability of elevated instability. Soundings
show 40-50kt of fairly unidirectional W/SE shear with elevated
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg, therefore cannot rule out a
few strong storms as front crosses area although expect most to
remain fairly benign given timing of boundary. Primarily threat
would be heavy rainfall as warm cloud depths climb to ~11,000ft
with PWATs between 1.25-1.5" and gusty winds upwards of 30 mph.

Behind this boundary, showers activity will continue throughout the
day on Saturday as 500mb vort swings through. Reinforcing shot of
cold air arrives between 21-00z Saturday with associated NW wind
shift. Expect a few showers to spark off this boundary, mainly
across northern New York and northern Vermont. Soundings show some
available instability (~300 J/kg), thus some lightning and small
hail (graupel) can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Thursday...Continued showery weather expected
Sunday as upper level low remains overhead. Similar to last
Sunday, convective clouds/showers cannot be ruled out as low
level lapse rates steepen. Best chances for these convective
showers will be across the higher terrain...at this time, not
expecting any accumulation or graupel with these showers as
convective depths above 0C are pretty meager (<1000 ft). Pattern
becomes increasingly amplified towards behind this system with
high pressure anchored across the eastern seaboard. NW aloft
will keep us seasonable in the low to mid 70s Monday/Tuesday but
by mid-week flow begins to back towards the W/SW as ridge axis
shifts to our east. This ridge begins to break down towards
Thursday as low pressure across Canada drags a surface boundary,
along with the remnants of Cristobal, across the North Country.
Temperatures and humidity increase ahead of this system on
Wednesday with above normal temperatures in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across the North
Country this afternoon with ceilings situated between 6000 and
8000 ft. Based on the latest data, we should see cloud cover
thin out over the next several hours with just a few mid to high
level clouds through the overnight period. In the mean time,
south to west winds will continue at 10 knots or less but a few
sporadic gusts to 18 knots cannot be ruled out through about
22Z. We expected showers and thunderstorms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours on Friday but should develop after
the 18Z timeframe. A few light rain showers may be possible at
KRUT after 12Z but they would be light and VFR conditions are
still anticipated.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Clay/Evenson
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Clay