Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 070719 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 319 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front moving through northern Midlands today. Cristobal will lift north through the Gulf of Mexico with landfall expected late today. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week as another weakening cold front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Moisture gradient is currently in place over the forecast area with PWATs 1.2 inches in the north and around 1.5 inches south. This is a significantly drier airmass compared to the past few days which is why any rain remains well south of the forecast area early this morning associated with some increased isentropic lift. Later this morning and into the afternoon, this area of weak isentropic lift will shift into the southern forecast area leading to a chance for some shower and storm development. An upper level trough will continue to deepen north of the forecast area as well, pushing a surface cold front into the northern Midlands, with deeper moisture returning. This front is expected to stall north of Columbia with a chance of storms developing later in the afternoon and into the evening where instability will be highest, although it remains weak to moderate. Storms remain unlikely over the Central Midlands today with forecast soundings indicating a capping inversion hanging on through much of the day. High clouds will continue to pass over the area Sunday, associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal. High temperatures will be similar to the past few days in the upper 80s and low 90s. With a generally SW flow through tonight, expect overnight lows to once again be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cristobal will be lifting northward from the lower MS Valley toward the Great Lakes Region through Tuesday night. At the same time a mid and upper level ridge over our region Monday will move to the coast Tuesday night. Southerly low level winds will bring increasing moisture and humidity to the area Monday and Tuesday. Models indicated PWAT values 1.5 to 2.0 inches with weak to moderate instability during peak heating. Mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected. Have continued chance pops on Monday with the highest pops across the CSRA and southern Midlands. As per guidance, have increased pops to high chance to likely for Tuesday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The remnants of Cristobal is expected to become absorbed into a northern stream positively tilted upper trough Wednesday. The trough will deepen over the Eastern States next weekend. A weakening cold front approaching the area Wednesday slowly cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This front may stall near the area into Friday before a reinforcing cold front moves through next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day with the highest probability Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal with highs from the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CIGs late this morning, otherwise VFR All terminals continue to see VFR conditions early this morning with the VAD wind profiler indicating a 20 knot southwesterly low level jet in place which has allowed for the return of additional low level moisture. This jet has been modeled fairly well with indications that it should continue to decrease later this morning. While fog is not out of the question, especially at AGS, models favor low level stratus development over the terminals, especially at AGS/DNL where the low level moisture is highest. Kept CIGs low MVFR after 9z this morning with stratus lingering into the late morning. TEMPO group in place for the rest of the terminals which may see brief MVFR CIGs after sunrise but otherwise conditions will remain VFR. Not completely out of the question that IFR CIGs develop at AGS/DNL but HRRR, which looks to match up with current obs in GA, does hint at any IFR CIGs staying more in southern GA. Slight chance of convection developing Sunday, mainly along a front in northern SC but should stay far enough away from the terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture Monday night through the middle of the week, with low clouds overnight and diurnal convection possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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