Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 171617 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1217 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will be stalled across North Carolina today into tonight. The front will push southward and will be just south of the forecast area Sunday. The front will become a warm front ahead of approaching low pressure Monday. This low pressure will linger in the area through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Regional radar late this morning shows most of the shower and isolated thunder activity has shifted in to the eastern Midlands. Expect rainfall to continue pushing east of the area through 18Z. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms currently near Atlanta may make it into the area early this afternoon, but activity is expected to diminish as it shifts east. An upper trough will shift southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and into the Appalachian region tonight. The trough and most favorable energy will pass to our north overnight. At the surface, an area of low pressure currently northwest of the area over KY/TN will shift east this afternoon and pass through the Carolinas overnight bringing a frontal boundary through the forecast area. High resolution models generally show a break or only isolated rainfall during the afternoon and evening hours as moisture becomes limited. The system moving into the area overnight will bring a slight chance of rain mainly to the northern Midlands between 03Z and 07Z. Models show the rainfall east of the area by 12Z Sunday morning. Winds will stay up overnight, so fog is not expected to develop. The temperature guidance was close with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The models show the front sinking southward to a position just south of the forecast area Sunday. Moisture should remain shallow with mid-level ridging moving into the area. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS have pops less than 10 percent. Moisture should begin to increase Sunday night as the front to our south becomes a warm front ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The models are consistent with moisture becoming deep by 12z Monday with high moisture continuing through Monday. Thunderstorms may occur Monday mainly in the south section near the warm front. Shear associated with the warm front indicates a possibility of organized thunderstorms. However, the more significant threat of severe thunderstorms may remain just south of the area where the GFS shows much greater instability. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The GFS and ECMWF display complex low pressure in the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure may be northeast of the area Wednesday but considerable wrap-around moisture may continue. The models show dry ridging dominate Thursday and Friday. The GFS and ECMWF indicate pops of 30 to 50 percent Tuesday and Wednesday, and less than 10 percent Thursday and Friday. The MOS supports above normal temperature through Tuesday and then below normal during the rest of the period. Near freezing temperatures may occur Wednesday night and Thursday night. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Regional radar shows a majority of the shower activity has shifted east of CAE/CUB/DNL and will continue pushing east of AGS/OGB over the next hour or two. Only isolated showers are expected at the terminals during the afternoon and overnight, so have removed mention as confidence in timing is too low to include. A frontal boundary will cross the area overnight with southwesterly winds rotating to northerly/northwesterly Sunday morning. The MAV indicated fog development late tonight, however, we followed the MET and did not include fog because of boundary layer wind. Cannot rule out stratus development, but confidence remains too low to include at this time. The front will be south of the area on Sunday with dry weather at the terminals expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A backdoor front and increasing moisture will provide a chance of rain and associated restrictions Monday through Tuesday.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.