Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 061136 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 636 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Considerable cloudiness today as a weak low pressure system tracks to the south of the area. By Sunday, strong high pressure will begin building into the area, keeping the area dry and bringing warm temperatures to the region through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico and weak trough extending north into central and north Georgia this morning. Pressure ridge over northern SC and NC. Amplified trough over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley moving east. This system will spread considerable clouds across the area today especially in the south Midlands and CSRA. Cloudiness expected to be mainly mid level or strato-cu. The near surface layer will remain quite dry with surface dew points expected in the teens to the north to low to 20s south. There is enough lift for some very light rain mainly in the CSRA, but ensemble guidance and deterministic models in agreement that any qpf will be minimal. Mainly trace amounts expected. Clearing should begin in the afternoon as short wave trough moves to the east and lift diminishes. With cloudiness temperatures will remain cool mainly in the low to mid 50s. The coolest air may be in the CSRA today. Some clouds may linger in the evening but mainly clear after midnight. Ridge still west of the area through daybreak so with a somewhat tight pressure gradient overnight, boundary layer winds may stay up a bit so not optimal radiational cooling. Stayed close to the guidance for mins...around 30 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough will dig deeper into the east coast Sunday, then shift east offshore Monday. A NW flow aloft over our region will maintain a feed of cool dry air into our FA. Surface high pressure will be settling into our FA Sunday night and remain in place Monday. Expect below normal temps, with late night/early morning freeze/frost possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shortwave upper ridge will build over the region late Monday/Tuesday, ahead of an upper disturbance that will move through Tue nt/Wed. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place, with the only impact of the upper energy being some high level cloudiness. At the surface, high pressure center will remain over the region Tuesday then shift offshore Wed. An upper ridge will build back over the region Thursday behind the departing shortwave. Anomalously high upper heights will remain in place through Saturday as the upper ridge center builds to our SW. A SW low level flow expected on the back side of offshore surface high pressure. This will all lead to a warming trend through the period with above normal temps. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions likely through the 24 hour TAF period. Mid level clouds increasing this morning ahead of a mid level trough approaching from the lower Mississippi Valley. Weak surface low in the Gulf of Mexico moving east toward Florida. Other than a few sprinkles mainly near AGS/DNL through about 15z, no precipitation expected as the near surface is very dry. Winds will be north to northeast 5 to 10 knots with a few higher gusts this morning. Ceilings should rise in the afternoon and evening as the low pressure system moves to the east. Mainly clear after 06z tonight with light winds. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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