National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
938
FXUS62 KCAE 150841
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
341 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating
temperatures today into Monday. The next system will bring rain to
the forecast area late Monday through Tuesday as another cold front
moves across the region. Drier, cooler weather is expected for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. will move
offshore this afternoon. A nearly zonal flow aloft will become more
southwest tonight as an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
amplifies the upper flow. Could see scattered mid and high level
clouds this morning. Sunny skies and slightly above normal high
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected today.
Expect areas of fog to develop tonight with clear skies, light
winds, and very wet ground. Kept overnight lows near guidance
consensus...in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid/upper trough will move over the Great Plains on Monday
and gradually dig towards the Southeastern CONUS through
Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered well off
the Carolina coast for Monday. Low pressure over the Deep South
will move northeastward across the TN Valley and across the
Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the
forecast area on Tuesday bringing widespread rain showers to the
area. Moisture will be deep along the front with model
precipitable water values around 1.6 inches which is 225 percent
of normal. There is also a chance of thunderstorms due to the
timing of the front and expected heating that should occur.
Models indicate weak instability with LI values dropping as low
as -2. Warm air advection will promote highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Mild overnight lows Monday
night, in the middle 50s. Tuesday night will be much cooler due
to cold air advection behind the front, with lows in the middle
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will be well offshore by Wednesday morning, and
the upper trough axis will shift off the eastern seaboard
Wednesday night. Wednesday will be much cooler in the wake of
the front despite nearly full insolation, with highs in the
lower 50s. An upper ridge will build eastward Wednesday through
Friday promoting continued dry weather. High temperatures both
days will be in the 50s. Clouds will increase through the day on
Friday ahead of the next approaching system. An upper low will
dig from the Midwest towards the Southeastern States Friday
night into Saturday night while surface low pressure moves
across the FL and deepens off the Carolina coast. This system
will bring the next chance of rain to the area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR during the daylight hours.

Clear skies and light wind has allowed fog development at fog
prone AGS early this morning. The fog should dissipate shortly
after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR through this evening. May
see patchy fog develop again toward the end of the TAF period
as radiational cooling takes place. Confidence not high enough
to include fog attm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will bring showers and
associated restrictions Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$