Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 231043 AAA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Columbia SC 643 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building across the region today will move off the coast Sunday. It will remain dry through Sunday. An approaching cold front will cross the area late Monday into Monday night producing showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will build into the region today. The air mass will remain dry with precipitable water values one quarter inch or less. Under sunny skies, afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 60s north to lower 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be over the region tonight keeping the area dry. Winds will be very light and skies will be mostly clear with only a few thin high clouds. This will result in decent radiational cooling, and temperatures will fall into the mid 30s overnight. Patchy frost will therefore be possible, especially across the northern Midlands. Sunday will also remain dry but the ridge will be shifting offshore and a southerly flow will develop, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s. There will also be a moisture increase in the flow and ahead of broad upper troughing, and clouds will increase from the west. Moisture will increase further on Monday ahead of a cold front and increased upper troughing. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as the front moves through Monday afternoon and evening. Instability is weak with LI`s only -2 to -4, but bulk shear is moderate at 30 to 40 kts. Fairly confident there will be thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will be south of the region on Tuesday, but with upper troughing over the area there could still be some showers. Dry high pressure will return on Wednesday and remain over the region through Friday. While Tuesday will be cool with highs only in the 50s and Tuesday night lows in the 30s, it will warm through the remainder of the week. By Friday, high temperatures could be well into the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable today as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Other than a few high clouds...skies will remain clear. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible late Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure system slowly crosses the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum RH will be 15 to 20 percent today, although winds will be light and variable. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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