Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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541 FXUS62 KCAE 300727 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 327 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days then move off the coast this weekend. Mild afternoons with cooler than normal overnight temperatures are expected into the weekend. As the high moves off the coast, temperatures will moderate and moisture will slowly increase early next week. This will result in widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Very little to say about the weather today other than that it is expected to be absolutely beautiful. High pressure will continue to slowly shift into the eastern US, with our FA remaining on the southern side of the high pressure system. PWs are 30-50% of normal across the area which is helping to keep us drier than normal. Bumped highs this afternoon up a degree or two given the amount of sunshine. High pressure will remain to our north tonight but given the dry air in place, temps should radiate into the mid 50s for lows! && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move to well offshore by Saturday. This will allow a an upper level ridge to build over the area. At the surface, a strong pressure ridge will build southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and Georgia, moving off the coast Saturday afternoon. The air mass will be quite dry with precipitable water will fall to less than 0.5 inch through Saturday morning then slowly increase with the surface ridge off the coast. Dew points are expected to be in the 40s during each afternoon. Mostly sunny skies, mild/seasonable afternoons and cool nights are expected. With the ridge over the area Saturday morning, radiational cooling expected, although there may be some mixing in the boundary layer and maybe some thin high clouds moving in from the west. High temperatures on Friday, low to mid 80s then a little warmer on Saturday. The overnight lows Friday night in the low to mid 50s. It could be a little cooler in outlying and sheltered areas. The Mos and NBM temperature guidance is consistent. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The ensemble guidance remains generally consistent from previous runs. The deterministic guidance deviates next week with GFS more moist and unsettled as early as Tuesday with a stronger southern stream trough. The GEFS continues to spread moisture a little faster than The ECMWF ensemble and the GEPS is somewhat of a compromise. Moisture should increase Sunday as the upper ridge moves to the coast and the Bermuda high weakens a bit with the approach of a trough in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. There may be a short wave moving through the region Sunday to provide some lift. However, the models suggest most convection should remain mainly west of the area in the Carolina Mountains and north central Georgia Sunday. Ensembles show an upper trough from coastal Carolina across Florida Monday. Perhaps some weak short waves will move across the Southeast through early next week as possible triggers but forcing appears mainly to the south across Florida. Air mass appears weakly unstable early in the week then moderately unstable by mid week. A cold front may move into the Ohio Valley southwest to the lower Mississippi Valley by next Thursday as an upper trough moves east from the Great Lakes region. So, slight chance mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day possibly increasing pops later in the week. Temperatures should rise during the period to above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period. High pressure ridging over the area with some high clouds passing over the terminals. Dry air is in place and will only get drier through the day, keeping precipitation and any lower clouds completely at bay. So really this is just a wind forecast, with winds picking up out of the north by mid-morning and relaxing a bit after sunset tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$