Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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938 FXUS62 KCAE 150841 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 341 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures today into Monday. The next system will bring rain to the forecast area late Monday through Tuesday as another cold front moves across the region. Drier, cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the long term. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak surface high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. will move offshore this afternoon. A nearly zonal flow aloft will become more southwest tonight as an upper trough digging over the Four Corners amplifies the upper flow. Could see scattered mid and high level clouds this morning. Sunny skies and slightly above normal high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected today. Expect areas of fog to develop tonight with clear skies, light winds, and very wet ground. Kept overnight lows near guidance consensus...in the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid/upper trough will move over the Great Plains on Monday and gradually dig towards the Southeastern CONUS through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered well off the Carolina coast for Monday. Low pressure over the Deep South will move northeastward across the TN Valley and across the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the forecast area on Tuesday bringing widespread rain showers to the area. Moisture will be deep along the front with model precipitable water values around 1.6 inches which is 225 percent of normal. There is also a chance of thunderstorms due to the timing of the front and expected heating that should occur. Models indicate weak instability with LI values dropping as low as -2. Warm air advection will promote highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Mild overnight lows Monday night, in the middle 50s. Tuesday night will be much cooler due to cold air advection behind the front, with lows in the middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front will be well offshore by Wednesday morning, and the upper trough axis will shift off the eastern seaboard Wednesday night. Wednesday will be much cooler in the wake of the front despite nearly full insolation, with highs in the lower 50s. An upper ridge will build eastward Wednesday through Friday promoting continued dry weather. High temperatures both days will be in the 50s. Clouds will increase through the day on Friday ahead of the next approaching system. An upper low will dig from the Midwest towards the Southeastern States Friday night into Saturday night while surface low pressure moves across the FL and deepens off the Carolina coast. This system will bring the next chance of rain to the area next weekend. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR during the daylight hours. Clear skies and light wind has allowed fog development at fog prone AGS early this morning. The fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR through this evening. May see patchy fog develop again toward the end of the TAF period as radiational cooling takes place. Confidence not high enough to include fog attm. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will bring showers and associated restrictions Monday night and Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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