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420
FXUS62 KCAE 261811
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
211 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front will move through the area bringing widespread showers and
storms today. Drier air and lower rain chances filter in over the
weekend into early next week, before deeper moisture and better rain
chances return. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
through early next week, before returning closer to normal by the
middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread showers and storms develop along a front, producing
  heavy rain and potential flash flooding once again.

Heavy, tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms have been
occurring across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region for
much of the morning. This has occurred as a slow moving surface boundary
has sunk southward through the day. Scattered showers are now
forming along and ahead of this as it pushes more into the
central Midlands, which makes sense given the 2.0-2.2" PWs,
SBCAPE 1000-2000 j/kg, and high surface dewpoints. Overall
forcing is more concentrated today as the boundary sinks into
the area, and as a surface front sinks southward ahead of an
upper level trough that is pushing southeastward. As such,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to slowly develop this afternoon across the area. They
should not be slow moving, though, helping to keep the flash
flooding threat confined to areas that are able to see training
rainfall. Highs are likely to end up in the upper 80s to around
90 this afternoon. Showers and storms should continue for a bit
into the evening but are expected to diminish in coverage as the
night goes on. The real front, with lower PW air behind it, is
forecast to push south and west slowly after midnight. Temps may
be able to get into the upper 60s in the far northern FA as
dewpoints fall but don`t count on it. Lows will likely be in the
low to mid 70s again.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Message:

- Noticeably drier air moves into the region this
weekend with lower rain chances.

Upper level trough will push through the mid-Atlantic, driving a
frontal boundary south of the area. This will usher in drier air,
with PW values dropping to less than 1.5" in the Columbia area by
Saturday afternoon. The exception will be the CSRA where PW may
remain closer to 1.7" much of the weekend. This should keep rain
chances mainly south and west of the I-26 corridor, and any showers
or thunderstorms will be isolated or scattered in nature.
Temperatures expected to be slightly below normal this weekend.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Message:

- A more typical summer weather pattern over the
region with moisture returning to the region.

Upper ridge becomes more zonal into early next week as deeper
moisture makes a return to the region. PW values return to just shy
of 2" by Monday afternoon, with temperatures beginning a gradual
warming trend. A few relatively weak mid-level shortwaves moving
through the flow may be the main impetus for shower and thunderstorm
development, which shouldn`t be that difficult as temperatures
return to normal. Overall, convection should be relatively
unorganized with a typical summertime scattered rain chances.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions have returned, but IFR cigs are expected again
late tonight at CAE/CUB/OGB.

LIFR and IFR cigs from earlier have generally lifted into VFR
cumulus across the forecast area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue developing this
afternoon as a surface trough pushes southward through the area.
VCSH is sufficient for now, despite thunderstorms being
distinctly possible through the afternoon. Expect showers to
diminish in coverage and intensity after 03z tonight, with winds
beginning to shift out of the north and northeast late tonight.
A front is forecast to push through slowly tonight, and this
feature is forecast by HRRR/LAMP/NBM guidance to push stratus
into the CAE/CUB/OGB between 09z and 14z, lifting thereafter.
Confidence is not high that this will make it to AGS/DNL,
though, so have only trended towards it. There may be a shower
or storm tomorrow, especially towards AGS/DNL in the afternoon,
but it is expected to be after this period ends.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air is expected to push into
the region Sat/Sun with a decrease in rain chances both days.
Summer-like pattern returns next week with daily chances for
storms.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...82
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...82