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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250005
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
705 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front south of the forecast area will lift northward and
through the area late tonight and early Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will be in the area
Wednesday. The deepest moisture will occur ahead of the warm
front tonight and early Tuesday morning. Above normal
temperatures will occur behind the warm front Tuesday and
Wednesday. Below normal temperatures will occur behind the cold
front Thursday and during the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Rain has temporarily diminished across the area as mid level
short wave trough moves to the northeast. However, radar
indicating widespread showers back in central Ga moving
northeast. This is associated with the warm front which will
move into the region overnight. Models suggest relatively strong
moisture flux and isentropic lift along with some weak short
wave energy as upper trough and surface low move northeast into
the Ohio Valley. The models suggest locally heavy rain possible
mainly between 06z and 09z with qpf max across the Piedmont and
west Midlands. So categorical pops later this evening as rain
spreads east- northeast across the area. QPF 0.5 to 1.5 inches
across the area with precipitable water increase to nearly 200
percent of normal supported by 40-50 kt low level jet.

Isolated minor flooding remains a possibility due to the
saturated ground from weeks of above normal rainfall but the
highest rain totals are expected in the Upstate/Piedmont. QPF
appears to remain below Flash Flood guidance especially in the
east Midlands. It should be noted that a couple of the hi-res
models including latest runs of the HRRR indicate possible
convection along the Gulf Coast tonight which may impede
moisture advection northward and further lower rainfall totals
expected.

While surface instability is nil as the area remains north of a
warm front, cannot totally rule out an isolated elevated
thunderstorm and severe weather is not expected. Temperatures
overnight will gradually rise as the warm front approaches and
lifts north through the area with overnight lows likely
occurring early in the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift north of the area early Tuesday morning
while a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will
shift east through the area on Wednesday. The deepest moisture
will push eastward on Tuesday with the best chance for rain
east. The high resolution models show the best coverage along
the coast. Lowered pops some Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models
indicate LI values of -1 to -4 on Tuesday, but believe the
chance for thunder is too low to include mention in forecast
given the shallow moisture and weak convergence ahead of the
cold front. Model QPF is light generally showing a tenth of an
inch or less for Tuesday. Chance pops still appear reasonable
for Wednesday with the deepest moisture still east of the area
and weak convergence along the front. Above normal temperatures
are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the front. It will
be breezy on Wednesday with gusts to of 20 to 25 mph, but expect
to stay just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will ridge into the
region Thursday and Friday. Cooler and drier air will filter into
the area with precipitable water values dropping down to less than a
quarter inch. An upper disturbance and reinforcing cold front will
pass through the region on Saturday, but moisture appears limited.
Pops less than 15 still appear reasonable. Sunday appears dry with
surface high pressure in place over the region. High pressure will
shift early next week with moisture deepening. Below normal highs in
the lower to middle 50s are expected through Sunday. Temperatures
will moderate to around 60 on Monday with flow becoming
southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions through most tonight with improvement to VFR
by Tuesday afternoon.

Most terminals begin the TAF period in IFR conditions with CIGs
below 1000 feet. CIGs are expected to drop further to LIFR as
heavier rain moves in later tonight. This will also cause VSBYs
to drop to IFR at all terminals. Rain will continue through the
night and begin to taper off Tuesday morning which will lead to
increased VSBYs, although CIGs may be a bit slower to recover.
Dry air will continue to filter in Tuesday leading to
improvements to MVFR conditions by late morning and then VFR
conditions during the afternoon.

Winds will be generally shifting from southerly to westerly
tonight into tomorrow. A SW low level jet will move over the
area tonight leading to LLWS criteria. Winds remain between 5
and 10 knots through tomorrow morning at the surface before
increasing tomorrow afternoon. As this low level jet mixes out
tomorrow, gusts during the afternoon are expected to be between
15 and 20 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions remain possible
associated with this system through Wednesday when a cold front
moves through the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$