Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 090808 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 408 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry air and high pressure will remain in control of the pattern through late Saturday night. Near to slightly below average temps are expected along no chance for rain until Sunday, when moisture rapidly returns to the area. A fairly active is then expected to remain in place from Sunday onwards, with diurnal showers and storms expected each day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IR satellite imagery shows mid level clouds across portions of the forecast area with temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Through the remainder of the night expect little change with the mid level clouds remaining through daybreak and with drier air beginning to filter into the northern and central Midlands overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Weak cold front across south central GA and far southern SC will continue moving southward today. This will allow light NNE winds this morning which will back to NW this afternoon to advect drier air into the area. Skies this morning will be partly to mostly cloudy then become mostly sunny during the late morning and early afternoon as the drier air overtakes the area. Although there will be plenty of sunshine with the northerly winds there will be a touch of cooler air moving into the region as well which will keep afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Little change in the synoptic situation overnight will keep the drier air in place and with mostly clear skies and winds becoming light and variable with sunset radiational cooling conditions will be excellent. This will allow lows tonight to fall into the mid 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The trough over the Northeast CONUS will finally shift east by Saturday, dropping our persistent northwest flow aloft and allowing more zonal mid level flow and weak ridging to develop. As the surface high pressure slides off the coast to our east, southerly component winds will steadily develop throughout the day at low levels. Moisture however will not really make it back into the region until late Saturday night, so mostly clear skies will allow temps to warm into the upper 80`s. Overnight Saturday into Sunday, moisture will rapidly begin to fill back in aloft and near the surface as PWAT`s jump from near 0.5" to over 1.25" by Sunday morning, and surface dew points climb into the upper 60`s. A split flow mid and upper-level pattern (digging trough towards the Great Lakes and a somewhat zonal southern stream) is progged to develop by Sunday over the central US, which will then set things up for the rest of the week. The first shortwave swinging through the southern stream should act a trigger for some showers and storms Sunday afternoon as sufficient moisture will be in place. However, mediocre mid- level lapse rates will limit instability particularly across the Midlands and Pee Dee. While there remains a wide range of solutions across guidance still, the CSRA consistently is able to muster 1000+ J/kg CAPE by Sunday afternoon, so confidence is highest there in the shower-storm potential. Shear will essentially be non-existent so any severe threat will be pulse in nature; a modest inverted V style profile is consistent across most forecast soundings, so a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible with storms that develop. High temps on Sunday again to should reach into the upper 80`s or around 90, but precip chances have this a bit more variable.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There is very good agreement in the trough digging into the Great Lakes deepening by Monday, pushing a front down into the Ohio Valley and then into the Southeast. With some further height falls aloft, additional moisture return, and a coherent forcing mechanism, showers and storms again expected Monday; instability is progged to be substantially higher than Sunday in the GEFS members so the severe threat is a bit higher. This trough and front will then effectively stall to our north for much of the week, allowing above average moisture and below average heights to linger across the area. Thus, instability looks to be available each with some diurnal heating so afternoon and evening storms are likely each day. The CSU severe probs are quite bullish most days next week for strong- severe storm potential lining up nicely with environment fields in the NAEFS; consistent shortwaves and triggers moving through, robust moisture, some modest shear (for June), and steeper mid- level lapse rates.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR Conditions expected through the TAF period with some early morning fog at AGS. Mid level clouds remain across the terminals with some fog at AGS. With the mid level clouds having just moved into AGS/DNL expect the fog to diminish over the next couple hours returning to VFR by 09z. Through the period a weak cold front south of the area will continue moving further south with drier air moving into the area. This will keep scattered mid level clouds over the area with VFR conditions. Winds will remain light and variable through mid morning then become NNE around 5 knots finally backing to NW around 5 knots through the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions expected through Saturday night. Periodic restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night as a weak system moves through the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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