Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 241023 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 623 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge parked over the region will continue to provide generally fair and hot conditions through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface and upper ridging continues to build across, which allows for some downsloping to occur. This will bring even warmer temperatures and promote dry weather. Afternoon highs expected in the mid to upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge will remain centered just to our W/SW. A back door front is expected to slip down the east coast and approach our NE FA late tonight and Saturday then become diffuse. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge is expected to preclude most diurnal convection, although isolated to widely scattered activity possible near the surface boundary and sea breeze, favoring eastern and southern areas. H85 downslope flow expected to promote hot temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Relatively little change thru early next week. The upper ridge is progged to shift a little farther south, to over the E GOMEX. An upper level ripple or two along with a weak surface boundary expected to come through with little consequence. A generally dry atmosphere and subsidence expected to preclude significant POPs. H85 downslope flow, and associated hot conditions, to continue early week. It appears that relatively dry low level air will keep apparent temps/heat index values from reaching our local heat advisory criteria of 110F. Current forecast package includes max heat index values up to 104. A front and increased moisture may provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms late week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Surface and aloft high pressure will dominate. Cirrus will push across the region through the period. Winds remain strong enough this morning at low-levels to limit fog formation. During the day, do not expect any showers/storms due to strength of ridge and northwest downsloping flow. May see few/sct mid-level clouds, but conditions mostly sunny. Winds south to southwesterly around 5 knots early this morning, then turn more out of the west during the daytime hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... Prolonged fair and hot conditions expected, with near daily record high temperatures possible Saturday through Wednesday. Heat index values up to 104 expected. Please remain alert to the dangers of heat and prepare accordingly. Daily record high temperatures for Columbia SC (CAE) and Augusta GA (AGS). CAE AGS Sat 05/25 101 in 2000 99 in 2000 Sun 05/26 100 in 1953 100 in 1926 Mon 05/27 99 in 1916 99 in 2000 Tue 05/28 99 in 1914 99 in 1964 Wed 05/29 98 in 1941 99 in 1914. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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