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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 241023
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge parked over the region will continue to
provide generally fair and hot conditions through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface and upper ridging continues to build across, which
allows for some downsloping to occur. This will bring even
warmer temperatures and promote dry weather. Afternoon highs
expected in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge will remain centered just to our W/SW. A back
door front is expected to slip down the east coast and approach
our NE FA late tonight and Saturday then become diffuse.
Subsidence associated with the upper ridge is expected to
preclude most diurnal convection, although isolated to widely
scattered activity possible near the surface boundary and sea
breeze, favoring eastern and southern areas. H85 downslope flow
expected to promote hot temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively little change thru early next week. The upper ridge
is progged to shift a little farther south, to over the E
GOMEX. An upper level ripple or two along with a weak surface
boundary expected to come through with little consequence. A
generally dry atmosphere and subsidence expected to preclude
significant POPs. H85 downslope flow, and associated hot
conditions, to continue early week. It appears that relatively
dry low level air will keep apparent temps/heat index values
from reaching our local heat advisory criteria of 110F. Current
forecast package includes max heat index values up to 104.

A front and increased moisture may provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period.

Surface and aloft high pressure will dominate. Cirrus will push
across the region through the period. Winds remain strong
enough this morning at low-levels to limit fog formation. During
the day, do not expect any showers/storms due to strength of
ridge and northwest downsloping flow. May see few/sct mid-level
clouds, but conditions mostly sunny. Winds south to southwesterly
around 5 knots early this morning, then turn more out of the
west during the daytime hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected at this
time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prolonged fair and hot conditions expected, with near daily record
high temperatures possible Saturday through Wednesday. Heat
index values up to 104 expected. Please remain alert to the
dangers of heat and prepare accordingly.

Daily record high temperatures for Columbia SC (CAE) and
Augusta GA (AGS).

           CAE            AGS
Sat 05/25  101 in 2000     99 in 2000
Sun 05/26  100 in 1953    100 in 1926
Mon 05/27   99 in 1916     99 in 2000
Tue 05/28   99 in 1914     99 in 1964
Wed 05/29   98 in 1941     99 in 1914.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$