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718
FXUS62 KCAE 220100
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
800 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching low pressure system will spread snow across the area
later this afternoon through tonight. with highest accumulations
still expected south of I-20. Very cold temperatures will continue
through Thursday before a slow, steady warm up begins through the
weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Key Message(s):

- Winter Storm Warning in effect for 2 to 4 inches of snow
- Very cold temperatures continue

Overview: The axis of an upper level trough will swing through
the forecast area tonight becoming neutrally tilted. Warm
advection ahead of the trough along with 750 and 850 mb
frontogenesis will aid in the development of snow bands which
will move eastward through the night. This will generally bring
1-3 inches of snow to the forecast area (FA) before drier air
shifts precip and cloud cover east of the FA by daybreak. The
largest snow amounts are expected to be across the southern and
eastern Midlands where frontogenesis is strongest and moisture
advection is deeper. It`s in these areas, closer to I-95, where
snow amounts could be closer to 4 inches with locally higher
amounts.

Temperatures will be in the 20s through much of the night.
Clouds clearing from west to east may allow temps to fall into
the teens closer to daybreak. With the system moving through,
winds should stay elevated overnight, resulting in wind chills
in the lower teens to a few single digits. Thus, have kept the
Cold Weather Advisory in effect through 10 AM tomorrow.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Very cold temperatures continue Wednesday
- Slow moderation of temperatures starts Thursday

Surface low will continue to move offshore on Wednesday with the
incoming airmass remaining cold and drying back out. Despite clear
skies and plenty of sunshine, cold air advection will keep
temperatures from warming too much past the middle 30s. However,
northeast winds around 10 kts or so may cause wind chill
temperatures around 30 degrees or lower. For Wednesday night, winds
will decrease with high pressure ridging down the east coast. Any
remaining snow pack may ultimately affect temperatures by cooling
them a few extra degrees particularly early in the evening.
All in all, expecting lows in the low to mid teens, which may
bring apparent temps cold enough to warrant another Cold
Weather Advisory.

Dry conditions expected on Thursday with a weak wave passing north
of the area and another passing offshore. Precip should remain east
of the area, but we probably won`t see the sun all day. The cold
surface high will move offshore, so hopefully temperatures will
begin to moderate with highs in the low 40s. Thursday night low
temps will fall into the lower 20s with light winds and slowly
clearing skies.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Key Message(s):

- Temperatures gradually warm through the extended
- Next chance for rainfall late this weekend into Monday

A very gradual warming trend is expected to occur as the airmass
moderates across the region Friday and Saturday see highs in the mid
to upper 40s as a dry upper trough passing to our north.
Zonal flow sets up for the weekend, and highs return to the 50s by
Sunday. Another system moving through the Deep South will increase
rain chances Sunday night into Monday, but temperatures will be warm
enough to keep any precip of the liquid variety.
There remains some uncertainty in the forecast past that, but it
does seem we we will return to a more active pattern next week,
though temperatures will remain warmer.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread restrictions expected this evening in snowfall then
improvement by dawn Wednesday.

Low pressure moving along the Gulf Coast is resulting in
snowfall across much of the southeastern states. Radar imagery
shows a more steady band of snow moving into the CSRA and
eventually overspreading the Midlands which is bringing MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. AGS/DNL have IFR conditions in that heavier band now
but should move out of that area between 04-05z while the lower
restrictions should reach CAE/CUB by 01z and continue through
05z while OGB should be on the same timing but displaced by
about an hour or two on the ending time (06-07z). Winds are
generally from the north around 10 knots and this should
continue through much of the forecast period.

Skies should improve late tonight as the band of snow pushes
east with drier air moving in aloft. Winds shift more
northeasterly during the predawn hours and continue through the
day Wednesday around 5 to 10 knots.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected Wednesday night
through Saturday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025-026-115-116.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ027>031-
     035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ040.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ063>065-
     077.
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&&

$$