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000
FXUS62 KCAE 061136
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
636 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Considerable cloudiness today as a weak low pressure system
tracks to the south of the area. By Sunday, strong high
pressure will begin building into the area, keeping the area dry
and bringing warm temperatures to the region through next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico and weak trough
extending north into central and north Georgia this morning.
Pressure ridge over northern SC and NC. Amplified trough over
the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley moving east. This system
will spread considerable clouds across the area today especially
in the south Midlands and CSRA. Cloudiness expected to be mainly
mid level or strato-cu. The near surface layer will remain quite
dry with surface dew points expected in the teens to the north
to low to 20s south. There is enough lift for some very light
rain mainly in the CSRA, but ensemble guidance and deterministic
models in agreement that any qpf will be minimal. Mainly trace
amounts expected. Clearing should begin in the afternoon as
short wave trough moves to the east and lift diminishes. With
cloudiness temperatures will remain cool mainly in the low to
mid 50s. The coolest air may be in the CSRA today. Some clouds
may linger in the evening but mainly clear after midnight. Ridge
still west of the area through daybreak so with a somewhat
tight pressure gradient overnight, boundary layer winds may stay
up a bit so not optimal radiational cooling. Stayed close to the
guidance for mins...around 30 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will dig deeper into the east coast Sunday, then shift
east offshore Monday.  A NW flow aloft over our region will maintain
a feed of cool dry air into our FA. Surface high pressure will be
settling into our FA Sunday night and remain in place Monday. Expect
below normal temps, with late night/early morning freeze/frost
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave upper ridge will build over the region late
Monday/Tuesday, ahead of an upper disturbance that will move through
Tue nt/Wed.  A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place, with
the only impact of the upper energy being some high level
cloudiness. At the surface, high pressure center will remain over
the region Tuesday then shift offshore Wed. An upper ridge will
build back over the region Thursday behind the departing shortwave.
Anomalously high upper heights will remain in place through Saturday
as the upper ridge center builds to our SW. A SW low level flow
expected on the back side of offshore surface high pressure. This
will all lead to a warming trend through the period with above
normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the 24 hour TAF period.

Mid level clouds increasing this morning ahead of a mid level
trough approaching from the lower Mississippi Valley. Weak
surface low in the Gulf of Mexico moving east toward Florida.
Other than a few sprinkles mainly near AGS/DNL through about
15z, no precipitation expected as the near surface is very dry.
Winds will be north to northeast 5 to 10 knots with a few higher
gusts this morning. Ceilings should rise in the afternoon and
evening as the low pressure system moves to the east. Mainly
clear after 06z tonight with light winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through
Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99