Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 180845 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 445 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warming trend through the end of the week with temperatures well above average. Isolated thunderstorms Thursday, mainly in the northern Midlands. Better rain chances return this weekend with chance of mainly diurnal thunderstorms and showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mostly clear skies this morning with high pressure continuing to build in from the west. Decent radiational cooling has taken place with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s so far. Ultimately the lack of wind will allow for temperatures to drop a few more degrees, ending up in the mid to upper 50s before the sun rises. Flat ridging overhead today combined with WAA in the lower levels will allow temperatures to reach the low 90s across much of the area, possibly mid 90s in the CSRA. Skies will be mostly clear except for some flat cu which may pop up this afternoon in response to daytime heating. Shortwave energy will push through the Ohio Valley this evening, with the southernmost extent approaching our area from the northwest. Expect some increasing clouds late tonight particularly across the northern Midlands in association with this feature, but any precip potential should hold off until later in the day on Thursday. Windspeeds also remain in play tonight, and so ideal cooling is not expected to take place. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The trough will dig into the eastern US on Thursday with the main surface low moving into New York and Pennsylvania that morning. The warm front associated with it will remain well north of our area, which should focus convection further up the East Coast. Lack of moisture and significant forcing will be a limiting factor in any thunderstorm development. Given the high instability, high lapse rates aloft, and deep shear, any storms that do develop will bring strong, possibly damaging winds. CAMs are beginning to show more activity in the Carolinas and within our CWA much of it appears to focus mainly the northern Midlands. Timing of the stronger convection looks to be late afternoon, possibly into the evening as a weak shortwave moves along the boundary. SPC indicates a Marginal Risk for Thursday along the Midlands and general thunder for the CSRA. Temperatures will continue to be on the rise with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Improved ridging over the Southeast and drier Friday with PWAT values around an inch. Southwesterly flow at the surface bringing temperatures around ten degrees above average, the highest temperatures since last summer. A deep closed low will be moving out of the Rockies in the morning and quickly head up southeast Canada overnight. As the upper level trough digs into the Midwest moisture advection will increase over the area although we will remain dry at the surface. Temperatures in the upper 90s with lows around 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Forecast remains relatively unchanged as models continue to be in good agreement. A deep trough will begin to dig into the far east Rockies Saturday and move into the Great Plains Sunday morning. With high pressure weakening and increased southerly flow, moisture will move in from the Gulf and allow for rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the weekend. Precip will favor the afternoon hours but along with some diurnal thunderstorms a few weaker shortwaves will move across the area ahead of a cold front. Lack of dynamic forcing will keep precip coverage scattered to widely scattered. The front will stall late Sunday, ensuring rain chances stick around into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be closer to normal by Monday in the mid to upper 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected. Mainly SKC except for a FEW passing thin, high clouds with light and variable SFC winds at all TAF sites. Widespread fog is not expected to be an issue with deep dry air in place, but there is low confidence in some brief VSBY reductions are possible at OGB. Southerly winds will develop late this morning through the afternoon at 6-10 kts with a typical scattered cu field around 5k-8k ft MSL. Thicker clouds pass mainly north of the terminals late in the period as a system nears from the northwest. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the week outside of any showers Thursday-Saturday.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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