Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 250005 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 705 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front south of the forecast area will lift northward and through the area late tonight and early Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will be in the area Wednesday. The deepest moisture will occur ahead of the warm front tonight and early Tuesday morning. Above normal temperatures will occur behind the warm front Tuesday and Wednesday. Below normal temperatures will occur behind the cold front Thursday and during the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Rain has temporarily diminished across the area as mid level short wave trough moves to the northeast. However, radar indicating widespread showers back in central Ga moving northeast. This is associated with the warm front which will move into the region overnight. Models suggest relatively strong moisture flux and isentropic lift along with some weak short wave energy as upper trough and surface low move northeast into the Ohio Valley. The models suggest locally heavy rain possible mainly between 06z and 09z with qpf max across the Piedmont and west Midlands. So categorical pops later this evening as rain spreads east- northeast across the area. QPF 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the area with precipitable water increase to nearly 200 percent of normal supported by 40-50 kt low level jet. Isolated minor flooding remains a possibility due to the saturated ground from weeks of above normal rainfall but the highest rain totals are expected in the Upstate/Piedmont. QPF appears to remain below Flash Flood guidance especially in the east Midlands. It should be noted that a couple of the hi-res models including latest runs of the HRRR indicate possible convection along the Gulf Coast tonight which may impede moisture advection northward and further lower rainfall totals expected. While surface instability is nil as the area remains north of a warm front, cannot totally rule out an isolated elevated thunderstorm and severe weather is not expected. Temperatures overnight will gradually rise as the warm front approaches and lifts north through the area with overnight lows likely occurring early in the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will lift north of the area early Tuesday morning while a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will shift east through the area on Wednesday. The deepest moisture will push eastward on Tuesday with the best chance for rain east. The high resolution models show the best coverage along the coast. Lowered pops some Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models indicate LI values of -1 to -4 on Tuesday, but believe the chance for thunder is too low to include mention in forecast given the shallow moisture and weak convergence ahead of the cold front. Model QPF is light generally showing a tenth of an inch or less for Tuesday. Chance pops still appear reasonable for Wednesday with the deepest moisture still east of the area and weak convergence along the front. Above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the front. It will be breezy on Wednesday with gusts to of 20 to 25 mph, but expect to stay just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will ridge into the region Thursday and Friday. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area with precipitable water values dropping down to less than a quarter inch. An upper disturbance and reinforcing cold front will pass through the region on Saturday, but moisture appears limited. Pops less than 15 still appear reasonable. Sunday appears dry with surface high pressure in place over the region. High pressure will shift early next week with moisture deepening. Below normal highs in the lower to middle 50s are expected through Sunday. Temperatures will moderate to around 60 on Monday with flow becoming southerly. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR/LIFR conditions through most tonight with improvement to VFR by Tuesday afternoon. Most terminals begin the TAF period in IFR conditions with CIGs below 1000 feet. CIGs are expected to drop further to LIFR as heavier rain moves in later tonight. This will also cause VSBYs to drop to IFR at all terminals. Rain will continue through the night and begin to taper off Tuesday morning which will lead to increased VSBYs, although CIGs may be a bit slower to recover. Dry air will continue to filter in Tuesday leading to improvements to MVFR conditions by late morning and then VFR conditions during the afternoon. Winds will be generally shifting from southerly to westerly tonight into tomorrow. A SW low level jet will move over the area tonight leading to LLWS criteria. Winds remain between 5 and 10 knots through tomorrow morning at the surface before increasing tomorrow afternoon. As this low level jet mixes out tomorrow, gusts during the afternoon are expected to be between 15 and 20 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions remain possible associated with this system through Wednesday when a cold front moves through the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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