Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230614 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 214 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front extending from low pressure over Minnesota will lift north across the area over the course of this evening and tonight. As low pressure continues northeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday, a cold front will settle south across the area. This boundary will lift back north on Saturday as a warm front then stall overhead on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east and out of the area at this time. Updated to push back edge of rain threat further east. Line of showers and thunderstorms already approaching from the west and expected to arrive in the western portions of the forecast area around sunrise in the morning. Otherwise, forecast looks on target. Previous Discussion... Plume of moisture continues to stream northward into Ohio this afternoon in advance of a warm front moving into central OH. Scattered showers continue to break out and, up to this point, have been without thunder. Closer to the warm front marginal MUCAPE exists and expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible east of I-71 this evening as a narrow nose of instability works into eastern OH with the shear to loosely organize storms. Mid level lapse rates continue to remain poor. After about 10 or 11 PM, the remainder of the tonight forecast is dry, but we will be looking upstream as convection nears northwest OH Thursday morning. Latest trends is for this initial convection to arrive earlier, but be able to retain modest strength. Low level jet will carry this into the area and have likely PoPs march across the area during the morning hours. Lapse rates are better and will have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE and shear to maintain the convection across. If indeed this is the case, PoPs would need to be raised. But cold front is still off to the northwest and will not cross until later in the afternoon so some redevelopment is likely with at least scattered coverage. Areas along/east remain in the SPC Slight Risk. Partially clearing and drying out faster too Thursday night with high pressure shifting across the central Great Lakes. Temperatures will be mild tonight in the warm sector with the southerly flow. Warm again Thursday, although it may be a slow start with precip to start. Lows in the lower/mid 50s Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday begins with high pressure across the area, extending in from the north. To our west and southwest, a warm front will be near a Chicago to Cincinnati line. As the front moves ene into the area Friday night, the NAM shows CAPES rise to over 1000 j/kg in the warm sector but much of this is elevated and the air aloft will be fairly dry so for now will have Friday dry and Friday night mainly slight chance with a low chance pop north. Saturday CAPES again rise to 1500-2000 J/KG with afternoon heating. Models also show a cold front advancing into the area from the north. The day should start dry for most but in the afternoon will boost pops to likely much of the area. Models hinting on the cold front stalling out/dissipating somewhere in the area Saturday night although for now will taper pops into the low chance/slight chance category. Sunday will continue with chance/likely pops with the weak front in the area. Highs Friday mostly 70s. Highs Saturday 80 to 85. Sunday highs 75 to 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday the weak cold front from Sunday will track back north as a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the western lakes. No real forcing otherwise so will just have chance pops for the day for afternoon/evening convection. Monday night will drop to slight chance as the low moves northeast through the western and central lakes. Seems any forcing would be well away from the area. Tuesday the GFS shows stability rather low with afternoon li`s around -7C and what looks like a prefrontal trough in advance of the warm front tracking across the area in the afternoon. For now will have chance pops. The cold front associated with the low will move through on Wednesday. Will continue with chance pops for the balance of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Areas of fog have been developing across SW Ohio with MVFR already at FDY at 05Z. Thickening high cloud is expected to prevent visibilities from dropping much more but could see patchy MVFR during the overnight hours. Otherwise watching an area of showers and thunderstorms across Illinois that are expected to reach NW Ohio towards 10-12Z. Although some weakening is expected, tried to time scattered thunderstorms into TOL/FDY around 11Z, spreading east towards CLE/MFD/CAK at 12-14Z and YNG/ERI towards 14-15Z. Did not add stronger wind gusts to the terminals yet but it`s possible we could see gusts to 30-40 knots if thunderstorms maintain strength. Brief heavy rain with IFR visibilities and even small hail will be possible. After the morning activity moves through, the airmass will try to destabilize from MFD-CAK and points south. Scattered thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon in this area and may need to be added to the terminals. Thunderstorm activity early this morning is going to be fueled by a low level jet with wind speeds of 40-45 knots at 2000 feet and have included a window of low level wind sheer from Cleveland westward. By late morning we will start to see southwest winds become breezy with gusts to around 25-30 knots. Winds will drop off to 5-15 knots tonight as they shift around to the northwest behind a cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Have dropped the lakeshore flood warning as easterly flow has weakened. Low pressure moves through the northern and central lakes overnight forcing a warm front northeast across the lake. A cold front will follow from the northwest on Thursday. Guidance has winds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on the central and eastern basin. Highest waves are expected to remain out of the nearshore waters but it will get close to small craft conditions. For now will not issue a headline but one may be needed. Winds turn northwest but diminish behind the cold front Thursday night. Light wind will continue through Friday night. Saturday southerly flow will increase to around 15 knots behind another warm front and in advance of the next cold front. Winds will diminish and turn northwest on Saturday night. Winds will remain light through the balance of the forecast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KEC MARINE...TK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.