Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191415 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1015 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure centered north of Lake Erie will move a cold front east across the area this morning before a brief ridge builds over the area this afternoon. Another warm front will lift north across the area tonight into Friday before a stronger cold front moves east across the area on Saturday. High pressure will return by the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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10 am update... Latest hi-res model guidance is suggesting an increased chance for precipitation with the warm front late tonight into Friday morning. Bumped up PoPs slightly to account for this but will wait for full suite of 12Z guidance before making major adjustments. If this trend continues, may have to continue increasing cloud cover, PoPs and QPF for tonight into Friday morning. MUCAPE will be high enough for elevated convection to be present. Previous Discussion... A low pressure centered north of Lake Erie is moving a cold front east across the area this morning, resulting in a few lingering showers over NW PA. As the boundary continues to move east, all showers are expected to end by mid-morning, leading to the majority of today remaining dry across the area as a brief area of high pressure builds in. Temperatures today will be much warmer with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s. Although today will be nice, another low pressure will be developing over the central US which will bring a warm front north across the area late today into the early overnight hours. Along this boundary, increased isentropic lift coupled with increased moisture may provide enough support for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the area. This boundary is not expected to produce any severe weather. Temperatures overnight again will be much warmer, only dropping into the mid- to upper-60s as increased WAA aides in maintaining the warmer temperatures. By Friday morning, much of the area will be in the warm sector of the approaching low pressure. Although there will be ample WAA and moisture advection persisting over the area, the bulk of Friday is expected to remain dry. The only area of interest with this forecast is NE OH and NW PA, which models suggest will have an area of higher CAPE, possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg, and wind sheer values of 30-40 knots. The best timing for any thunderstorm development looks to be between 18-00Z with the primary threat remaining wind and possibly hail. This is a very tricky forecast as the timing of the frontal boundary has not been slowing in recent model runs, which may act to keep cloud cover longer and decrease overall instability. The other thing to watch will be the potential for any lake breeze development. Right now the overall flow seems too strong for this to develop, however if the winds end up weaker and one does develop this would act as a convergence zone for possible storm initiation. High temperatures on Friday will approach records as highs soar into the upper-80s to low-90s across the entire area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period will be fairly active for the 3rd weekend of May. The forecast area will remain in a bubble of a warm sector on Friday night with the region fairly capped with 700 mb temperatures over 10 C. A cold front will approach late in the night and attempt to bring showers into the region, but suspect that there will be issues in convection maintaining into NW Ohio and have very low PoPs (up to 30 percent) for Friday night. Temperatures across the forecast area should remain warm with lows close to seasonal highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For Saturday, the trend with the forecast this morning is that the front will be slower to push east as it battles the mid-level cap across the region. The better jet energy is far to the northwest and is delayed to help push the front southeast. So any showers/storms early in the day will likely be dependent on subtle boundaries (i.e. - lake breeze or remnant outflow boundary) to fire something up. With that, seems that coverage will be low for storms at this time and have low/no PoPs through the early afternoon. Later in the day, say by 21z, the cap could weaken and development elsewhere could allow for greater coverage with the best chances in NW Ohio. With the front staying west for much of the day, high temperatures on Saturday will be hot once again with upper 80s/lower 90s across the region. A temp/dew point spread of upper 80s/mid 60s would indicate that any storm development could have ample instability for strong updrafts, but with the better jet energy out of the area, it seems like a gusty wind/marginal hail type of day. For Sunday, the upper trough and associated jet energy push east and catch up to the sluggish cold front across the forecast area. With trends slower this morning, seems that the first half of Sunday could be the most concerning for widespread thunderstorm coverage and a more notable severe weather threat. The front will have at least the eastern half of the forecast area to work with some time early on Sunday to build some instability (with highs in the 70s/close to 80) and with the better jet energy, could have some organized development. With that, have the highest PoPs for the period during the daytime on Sunday with a mix of likely/categorical. The front will clear the area by Sunday evening and high pressure will build in for a relative dry evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be present across the Great Lakes region on Monday with some loose upper ridging overhead and an upper trough over the western CONUS. High pressure should keep the forecast area dry for all of Monday and at least half of Tuesday. Temperatures will be substantially cooler on Monday with highs in the 60s behind Sunday`s cold front. With the upper ridge becoming more amplified and surging in from the southeast, temperatures on Tuesday should reach the 70s. At some point mid-week, the western upper trough will propagate east and support the next low pressure system through the region. Wednesday seems like the most probable day at this point and have the highest PoPs on Wednesday afternoon for now. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... A mix bag of MVFR and IFR conditions have spread across the area this morning. Ceilings below 1kft the driver of IFR in much of the area, but conditions have begun to improve to MVFR across western terminals as ceilings climb to near 2kft. This improving trend with persist through the morning, spreading east and allowing all sites to rebound to VFR conditions for much of the afternoon. High clouds will return late this evening into the overnight hours as a strong warm front approaches from the south. As this boundary moves across the area, there is a chance of scattered thunderstorms, however confidence in location remains low. Due to this uncertainty, opted to keep all locations in VFR, however in areas that showers occur visibilites may briefly be reduced to MVFR. West winds this morning will shift to become southwesterly by this afternoon, with 10-15 knots expected along and west of I71 and 5-10 knots east of that line. As the warm front moves north this evening, winds will again shift to become southerly, increasing throughout the night to be sustained at 10-15 knots for all terminals with wind gusts up to 20 knots possible. Stronger winds are expected after this TAF period on Friday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms Thursday evening. Non-VFR possible again late Friday and Saturday in showers and/or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Thursday will be one last good marine weather day before a fairly active weather weekend. A trough crossing the lake this morning will allow for southerly winds to increase and then shift to the west. There will be a period of onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots over the eastern basin of Lake Erie, but do not believe waves will exceed 3 ft. A warm front will enter across the basin tonight and winds will become southerly and offshore once again. These winds will then increase significantly on Friday with good mixing in the warm side of the front and winds to at least 20 knots are expected and there will likely need to be a Small Craft Advisory. A cold front will approach the lake starting on Friday night, but will take some time to actually cross the lake. For Friday night through Saturday evening, expect stronger southerly flow to maintain across the lake, but showers and thunderstorms will likely enter portions of the lake, prompting turbulent marine conditions. The initial front will cross the lake on Saturday night into Sunday and west to northwest flow will take over the basin. This onshore flow will likely remain strong enough to ramp up waves and another Small Craft Advisory could be needed. High pressure will enter the region for Monday and Tuesday, allowing for more benign marine weather conditions. Flow across the lake will become northeasterly and this could allow for some higher waves building across the west end of the lake but flow should be light enough to prevent many issues. && .CLIMATE...
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Most locations will be near record high temperatures on Friday and/or Saturday. Here are the record high temperatures for climate sites for May 20th (Friday) and May 21st (Saturday). Location Date Record High Record Year Akron/Canton May 20(FRI) 91 1934 May 21(SAT) 91 1934 Cleveland May 20(FRI) 91 1962 May 21(SAT) 89 1941 Toledo May 20(FRI) 92 1962 May 21(SAT) 93 1941 Youngstown May 20(FRI) 91 1934 May 21(SAT) 89 1934 Mansfield May 20(FRI) 89 1962 May 21(SAT) 89 1941 Erie May 20(FRI) 88 2021 May 21(SAT) 88 1911
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Sefcovic CLIMATE...

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