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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230614
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extending from low pressure over Minnesota will
lift north across the area over the course of this evening and
tonight. As low pressure continues northeast across the Upper
Great Lakes on Thursday, a cold front will settle south across
the area. This boundary will lift back north on Saturday as a
warm front then stall overhead on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east and out of
the area at this time. Updated to push back edge of rain threat
further east. Line of showers and thunderstorms already
approaching from the west and expected to arrive in the western
portions of the forecast area around sunrise in the morning.
Otherwise, forecast looks on target.

Previous Discussion...

Plume of moisture continues to stream northward into Ohio this
afternoon in advance of a warm front moving into central OH.
Scattered showers continue to break out and, up to this point,
have been without thunder. Closer to the warm front marginal
MUCAPE exists and expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible
east of I-71 this evening as a narrow nose of instability works
into eastern OH with the shear to loosely organize storms. Mid
level lapse rates continue to remain poor. After about 10 or 11
PM, the remainder of the tonight forecast is dry, but we will
be looking upstream as convection nears northwest OH Thursday
morning. Latest trends is for this initial convection to arrive
earlier, but be able to retain modest strength. Low level jet
will carry this into the area and have likely PoPs march across
the area during the morning hours. Lapse rates are better and
will have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE and shear to maintain the
convection across. If indeed this is the case, PoPs would need
to be raised. But cold front is still off to the northwest and
will not cross until later in the afternoon so some
redevelopment is likely with at least scattered coverage. Areas
along/east remain in the SPC Slight Risk. Partially clearing and
drying out faster too Thursday night with high pressure
shifting across the central Great Lakes. Temperatures will be
mild tonight in the warm sector with the southerly flow. Warm
again Thursday, although it may be a slow start with precip to
start. Lows in the lower/mid 50s Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday begins with high pressure across the area, extending in
from the north. To our west and southwest, a warm front will be
near a Chicago to Cincinnati line. As the front moves ene into
the area Friday night, the NAM shows CAPES rise to over 1000
j/kg in the warm sector but much of this is elevated and the air
aloft will be fairly dry so for now will have Friday dry and
Friday night mainly slight chance with a low chance pop north.
Saturday CAPES again rise to 1500-2000 J/KG with afternoon
heating. Models also show a cold front advancing into the area
from the north. The day should start dry for most but in the
afternoon will boost pops to likely much of the area. Models
hinting on the cold front stalling out/dissipating somewhere in
the area Saturday night although for now will taper pops into
the low chance/slight chance category. Sunday will continue with
chance/likely pops with the weak front in the area. Highs
Friday mostly 70s. Highs Saturday 80 to 85. Sunday highs 75 to
80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday the weak cold front from Sunday will track back north as
a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the western
lakes. No real forcing otherwise so will just have chance pops
for the day for afternoon/evening convection. Monday night will
drop to slight chance as the low moves northeast through the
western and central lakes. Seems any forcing would be well away
from the area. Tuesday the GFS shows stability rather low with
afternoon li`s around -7C and what looks like a prefrontal
trough in advance of the warm front tracking across the area in
the afternoon. For now will have chance pops. The cold front
associated with the low will move through on Wednesday. Will
continue with chance pops for the balance of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Areas of fog have been developing across SW Ohio with MVFR
already at FDY at 05Z. Thickening high cloud is expected to
prevent visibilities from dropping much more but could see
patchy MVFR during the overnight hours. Otherwise watching an
area of showers and thunderstorms across Illinois that are
expected to reach NW Ohio towards 10-12Z. Although some
weakening is expected, tried to time scattered thunderstorms
into TOL/FDY around 11Z, spreading east towards CLE/MFD/CAK at
12-14Z and YNG/ERI towards 14-15Z. Did not add stronger wind
gusts to the terminals yet but it`s possible we could see gusts
to 30-40 knots if thunderstorms maintain strength. Brief heavy
rain with IFR visibilities and even small hail will be
possible.

After the morning activity moves through, the airmass will try
to destabilize from MFD-CAK and points south. Scattered
thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon in this area and
may need to be added to the terminals.

Thunderstorm activity early this morning is going to be fueled
by a low level jet with wind speeds of 40-45 knots at 2000 feet
and have included a window of low level wind sheer from
Cleveland westward. By late morning we will start to see
southwest winds become breezy with gusts to around 25-30 knots.
Winds will drop off to 5-15 knots tonight as they shift around
to the northwest behind a cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have dropped the lakeshore flood warning as easterly flow has
weakened. Low pressure moves through the northern and central
lakes overnight forcing a warm front northeast across the lake.
A cold front will follow from the northwest on Thursday.
Guidance has winds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on the
central and eastern basin. Highest waves are expected to remain
out of the nearshore waters but it will get close to small craft
conditions. For now will not issue a headline but one may be
needed. Winds turn northwest but diminish behind the cold front
Thursday night. Light wind will continue through Friday night.
Saturday southerly flow will increase to around 15 knots behind
another warm front and in advance of the next cold front. Winds
will diminish and turn northwest on Saturday night. Winds will
remain light through the balance of the forecast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK