Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261257 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 857 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over Lake Michigan will drift east through the day. The high will reach the East Coast of the US by Wednesday afternoon. Low pressure over Ontario will move eastward across Quebec and push a cold front south toward Lake Erie on Thursday. The front should stall across northern Ohio on Friday. This stalled boundary will become the track for low pressure to move along as it moves into the central Great Lakes on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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After a cold start to the morning, look for temperatures to warm into the 40s for all but lakeshore counties this afternoon due to onshore flow. High pressure over the western Great Lakes with very dry continental air (PWAT~0.1"). Apart from a few spotty clouds, look for full sun today. Expect a quicker temperature fall tonight as the high slides overhead and winds go light. Could see lows in the teens to lower 20s tomorrow morning. Previous Discussion... High pressure will be in control of the region through the near term period. Other than a period of high level cloud cover that may cross the region tonight it appears the area will be clear. Northerly winds this morning around 10 knots will add to the chilly feel. However highs by this afternoon should warm into the 40s at inland locations. Cooler near the lakeshore as the northerly winds off the cold lake keep highs in the middle to upper 30s. Light winds tonight combined with a very dry atmosphere will allow for a good radiational cooling night. Lows should range from the upper teens to the mid 20s. The dry air that we already mentioned will allow for a quick warm up on Wednesday. This combined with a return of a light southerly wind should nudge highs into the 50s across inland locations. Since there will be a weak pressure gradient across the region a lake breeze will develop and drift inland through the afternoon. This will impact highs along the lakeshore with early highs in the middle and upper 40s. The dry air may have impacts on the fire weather conditions across the region. RH levels will drop below 25% at many locations, especially on Wednesday. This could allow some of the taller dead fuels, mainly grasses, from the last growing season to ignite fairly easily. Fortunately wind speeds will be light so a rapid spread of fire is not anticipated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... South to southwest winds will return on the back side of an exiting surface high pressure system moving off the New England Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be a little more milder Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture levels will also increase ahead of the next frontal boundary moving down across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Despite high and mid level cloudiness on Thursday, temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 50s. The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal across the Ohio River Valley Region late Thursday into Friday. The frontal boundary will sag into the region with rain chances but stall out and hang out across the region for a couple days with several rounds of showers likely. The strong upper level trough will develop across the northern U.S. by late Friday and move into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. In response to the upper level trough, a surface low will develop across the Central Plains region and ride up along the stalled front. The EURO is a little more organized and stronger with the surface low compared to the latest GFS. The main weather story for the end of the week will be seasonable mild temperatures and several rounds of rainfall. The surface low and cold front finally moves through the area late on Saturday with widespread rainfall. Average 3 day total rainfall forecast from Thursday to Saturday will be about 1.0 inch to 1.5 inches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Colder air returns behind a cold frontal passage Saturday night and Sunday. Highs may not get out of the 30s on Sunday despite sunshine. The surface high will move right over northern Ohio Sunday night into Monday morning which will allow for cold temperatures at night down into the middle 20s. The surface high stays close by on Monday which will keep some sunshine and dry weather to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions expected through Wednesday morning. North winds will remain in the 6 to 12 knot range through the day becoming light and variable by sunset. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night through Saturday in periods of rain. && .MARINE... We have allowed the Smart Craft Advisory expired this morning as winds over the lake have decreased. Winds and waves will continue to diminish today as the center of a surface high moves across the Great Lakes Region today and over Lake Erie by this evening. Light and variable winds will be around tonight on the lake and light southwest winds 5 to 10 knots will return on the backside of the exiting surface high on Wednesday. Waves should remain 1 to 2 feet as well. Southwest winds will increase 15 to 20 knots late Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a front. The front will cross the lake and shift the winds to the north or northeast by Friday morning before the front stalls out and lights back northward Friday evening. A better organized surface low will moves across the lake on Saturday with breezy conditions and widespread rainfall. Waves may increase as well with winds 15 to 20 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...MM MARINE...Griffin

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