Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240205 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 905 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over and near the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states drifts eastward the rest of today through Friday. Simultaneously, a low moves from northern Missouri toward southern Lake Michigan, allowing its occluded front to begin sweeping northeast across northern Ohio. On Saturday through Sunday, the low should move toward the Canadian Maritimes, allowing the occluded front to move northeastward across the rest of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Recent high-resolution guidance has hourly temperatures slightly warmer through tonight, keeping temperatures just above freezing generally along and west of I-77 and along the lakeshore. This should limit the potential for mixed precipitation especially given that precipitation chances increase after 14 UTC, which is when temperatures creep back up to above freezing. Made changes in the forecast to reflect a reduced risk for freezing rain and sleet tonight and early tomorrow morning. Even so, if there is any freezing rain, it will be brief and fairly marginal due to light rain rates and temperatures very close to freezing. Also significantly increased winds and wind gusts for northwest Pennsylvania, particularly near the lakeshore where downsloping winds could be a problem between 22 UTC Friday and 08 UTC Saturday when a strong low- level jet moves across the area. There will be rain ongoing so there is some uncertainty with how much of these winds actually mix down. For now, riding with sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Original Discussion... Southwesterly flow aloft becomes southerly over our CWA on Friday and Friday night as a mid- to upper-level low moves from eastern Kansas toward southern Michigan. The accompanying surface low should move from northern Missouri late this afternoon toward southern Lake Michigan by daybreak Saturday as a high pressure ridge over/near the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States continues to drift eastward. The occluded front accompanying the surface low should sweep northeastward over our Ohio counties Friday evening through the predawn hours of Saturday and near the northeast Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania border by daybreak. Flow aloft will continue undergoing isentropic lift the rest of this afternoon and tonight. In addition, a greater moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico will eventually propagate eastward over our CWA. This will allow precipitation to overspread much of northern Ohio from west to east this evening through daybreak Friday. The bulk of this precip is expected to fall as rain. However, vertical profiles of temperature and wet-bulb temperature may allow precip to fall as light snow and/or freezing rain, especially west of I-77. Any snow accumulations should be less than a half inch, while any ice accumulations should be a trace to 0.02". Given there is only a slight chance of freezing rain, refrained from issuing a Winter Weather Advisory. The evening and overnight shifts will have to continue monitoring this freezing rain potential closely. Low temperatures will primarily reach the upper 20`s to lower 30`s tonight, with the coldest readings expected in interior northwest Pennsylvania. On Friday, periods of precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, continue overspreading northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania from west to east as southerly flow aloft undergoes isentropic lift and the Gulf of Mexico moisture tap continues propagating eastward. The rain could be moderate to heavy at times. Also, pockets of freezing rain and/or wet snow are possible in northern Ohio between daybreak and mid-morning. Little or no additional accumulation of snow or ice is expected. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 30`s to mid 40`s with a general west to east gradient in high temperatures. Rain should lessen in intensity and become more sporadic Friday night as the low pressure system`s dry slot begins overspreading our CWA from the west. However, lingering low-level cloud cover should be sufficiently-thick to produce periods of light precip. The rain may mix with or change to wet snow after midnight as nocturnal cooling occurs. However, any snow accumulations should be minor. Low temperatures should reach the lower to mid 30`s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A surface low pressure system will be centered over the western Great Lakes Saturday morning. Models are consistent with this low pressure becoming nearly vertically stacked over the region and slowly progressing eastward toward New England by Sunday evening. A southerly flow Saturday morning will allow moisture to continue to move into the area. Moisture couples with upper level support will allow lingering rain showers to occur through Saturday. Lake enhanced precipitation will increase the chances of precipitation in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A chance of snow showers cannot be ruled out as diurnal temperature changes will allow temperatures to drop to near or slightly below freezing, resulting in the rain to mix with snow. Winds are expected to increase on Sunday as the back side of the low pressure moves over the area. Surface temperatures are expected to remain above average throughout the weekend with highs near 40 and lows dropping to the low 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Monday, an upper-level short wave trough will progress through northern Ohio & northwest Pennsylvania. Winds are expected to weaken and shift to become westerly. Chances of precipitation diminish on Monday, however return Tuesday evening as a shortwave trough again impacts the area. Widespread precipitation is not anticipated as moisture and forcing are best to the south of the area. A weak high pressure system will build in over the area on Wednesday. A low pressure system will develop in the Southern Plains and more east towards the East Coast. Model consistency with this system is lacking, however if it shifts slightly north or changes the projected track, Wednesday night into Thursday could see the potential for more rain/snow showers. High temperatures are expected to remain above average through Thursday across all of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A surface low currently located over Missouri will work its way northeast tonight and tomorrow, with precipitation overspreading the region from southwest to northeast. Precipitation is likely to be all rain through the period with a slight chance for some mixed precipitation mixing in on the leading edge before 14 UTC Friday. The chance for mixed precipitation has been greatly reduced with this TAF update due to temperatures trending warmer in high-resolution guidance. Because of this opted to keep any mention of mixed precipitation out of all TAFs. A gradual reduction in ceilings will accompany widespread rain, reducing the MVFR conditions by Friday morning and to IFR conditions shortly after. The exception is KERI where VFR conditions may linger with downsloping winds. Periods of moderate rain is likely with visibility occasionally dropping down to as low as 1 SM, especially after 18 UTC. East to southeast winds of 8 to 12 knots expected across the area with gusts up to 20 knots. The exception will be KERI where downsloping winds will intensify towards the end of the TAF period as a strong low-level jet moves over the area. Upwards of 20 knot winds with gusts up to 30 knots will become possible after 23 UTC Friday. This low-level jet will also add additional issues in the form of LLWS, which has been added to all TAFs except KTOL and KFDY. .OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR likely with rain and snow Friday night through Saturday night. Lake effect snow develops on Sunday and lingers through Monday. && .MARINE... Lake Erie is expected to remain quiet through Friday morning with winds east-southeast at 5 to 10 knots. As an approaching low pressure begins to impact the region Friday night, winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots from the east. Waves during this time are expected to be 1 to 2 feet, with highest waves in the western basin. There is no small craft advisory expected through that period. The next chance for a small craft advisory appears to be on Sunday and Sunday night for the eastern portions of Lake Erie as the back end of the low moves across Lake Erie. Winds and waves are expected to diminish by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Campbell

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