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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 210540
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the region from
the west tonight into Monday. The next system may bring a
wintry mix and even some rain showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Another storm system for the end of the week may
bring another round of snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Lorain and Cuyahoga
Counties. Although snow remains possible in the southern
portions of these counties, amounts will be limited. The warning
remains in effect for the remainder of the primary and secondary
snow belt as we continue to grind out steady snow across much of
the area with a heavier snow band extending from Lake Huron
into Ashtabula County. The band is likely to persist in
Ashtabula County through the early morning hours before the dry
air wins out and it starts to break up. Best estimates are for
another 2-4 inches of very fluffy snow in Ashtabula/eastern
Trumbull Counties. Road Cams and reports from ODOT indicate snow
continuing to accumulate on roadways with slow conditions
across the secondary snow belt. We will eventually start to see
some drier air working in from the west but it has been slow so
left the warnings in tact. Additional accumulations will be more
like 1-2 inches but blowing remains a factor with visibilites
dropping below a mile at times.

Previous discussion... Lake effect snow continues across NE
Ohio this afternoon with a connection to Lake Huron being
observed. This band has shifted up the lake and is now oriented
across eastern Cuyahoga county across western Geauga county into
Portage county. Additional lake effect snow showers persist
west of this main band. the main band of snow has been producing
an inch of snow in under 20 minutes as it wobbles across the
area. Maximum amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible
overnight, although a locally higher amount is possible.
Elsewhere across the secondary snowbelt and over NW PA some
light accumulations are anticipated into the overnight. Current
thinking is that these areas should remain in the 1 to maybe 2
inch range. The main reason to keep the Winter Storm Warning
going is the gusty winds that will continue to reduce
visibilities and produce dangerous driving conditions.

Arctic high pressure will continue to slowly build into the
region overnight allowing skies to clear across the west and
potential portions of NE OH and NW PA. Elsewhere skies will
remain mostly cloudy but believe winds will remain in the 10 to
15 mph range so wind chill values should dip below -10. NW Ohio
and the southwestern CWA will be the coldest areas with wind
chills around -20. Will have to monitor this region for a
potential wind chill warning.

High pressure should eventually move far enough east to allow
the remaining lake effect snow showers to end across NE OH into
NW PA by Monday evening. Monday night will be another cold
night with temperatures ranging from -5 to 5 degrees. Easterly
winds begin to increase toward sunrise on Tuesday so we will
need to monitor for a short period where wind chill temperatures
dip below -10.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Tuesday, we will see the center of the Arctic high moving away
from the region and southerly winds returning across the area.
Temperatures will begin to moderate to average levels. Most
locations will reach if not barely over the freezing mark by Tuesday
afternoon. All model guidance is in good agreement with the mid week
system. An upper level trough will develop and dig across the
central U.S. by Tuesday night. An area of low pressure will move
across the Midwest up into lower Michigan.

We will be mostly on the warm side of this next system for most of
the precipitation. Moisture will begin move in Tuesday night. We
might have to monitor some fog potential as milder and moist air
moves over our snow pack Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We
may see a light wintry with the onset of precip moving end Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Confidence is low at this time on how
much and how quickly the freezing line will move northward during
the night. Expect a widespread and cold rain by Wednesday morning
for much of the area with breezy southerly winds. Temperatures will
climb to the 40s by late Wednesday morning or midday. A cold front
will move through Wednesday afternoon and as temperatures cool down
from west to east, we will see the rain change back to light snow.
We may end up seeing around an inch of light snow on the back side
behind the front.

The main concern to watch for Wednesday night into Thursday will be
models are indicating a wave of low pressure to travel up the
stalling frontal boundary near the Appalachians. If this occurs, our
southeastern areas may have a another wave or snow moving through
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance shows between a 10% to
30% chance of exceeding a .25 of an inch of liquid for snowfall
during this time frame which would be several inches of snowfall
possible. Confidence is low but something to watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another strong Arctic cold front will move through Thursday night.
This will bring another round of widespread light snow and much
colder temperatures for the end of the week. Several more inches of
synoptic snow is possible early Friday and then the Lake Effect Snow
machines will be turned back on late Friday through the weekend for
all the Snowbelt areas with temperatures way below average. Moderate
to heavy snowfall could be possible again for the Snowbelt
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Light lake effect snow showers continue from LPR eastward and
may impact CAK/YNG with temporary IFR. CLE may see a vsby dip to
MVFR in a snow shower. These are expected to stick around
through mid morning before ending in the afternoon. MVFR
ceilings will be confined to the the lakeshore counties, but
expect a small bit of expansion overnight. Ceilings then rise to
VFR and scatter Monday evening. Minor gusts remain out of the
northwest across the eastern terminals and those will continue
to diminish over the next 12 hours. ERI will hang on to the
gusts through Monday. Winds will back to the west and then south
Monday/Monday evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
We have concerns continuing from the strong gusty winds and very
cold temperatures over the lake. No changes have been made to the
Small Craft Advisories at this time. Gusty northerly winds will
continue between 20 and 30 knots but gradually decrease by late
Monday. Winds may become light and variable by Monday evening. We
have issued an Ice Advisory for the western portions of the lake
over the next couple of days. We are forecasting a rapid increase of
lake ice especially when the winds relax and the Arctic airmass
moves over the lake through the next 36 to 48 hours. We also have a
Heavy Freezing Spray warning for the entire lake through Monday
morning. Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots will return on the lake
Tuesday ahead of the next area of low pressure. Winds shift by
Wednesday afternoon behind a cold front to westerly 10 to 20 knots.
Strong and gusty winds return with a strong cold front for the end
of the week and small craft advisories likely if not possible Gales
again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     OHZ012>014-020>023-089.
     Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ142>149-162>169.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Griffin