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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 261257
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
857 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Lake Michigan will drift east
through the day. The high will reach the East Coast of the US by
Wednesday afternoon. Low pressure over Ontario will move
eastward across Quebec and push a cold front south toward Lake
Erie on Thursday. The front should stall across northern Ohio
on Friday. This stalled boundary will become the track for low
pressure to move along as it moves into the central Great Lakes
on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
After a cold start to the morning, look for temperatures to warm
into the 40s for all but lakeshore counties this afternoon due
to onshore flow. High pressure over the western Great Lakes
with very dry continental air (PWAT~0.1"). Apart from a few
spotty clouds, look for full sun today. Expect a quicker
temperature fall tonight as the high slides overhead and winds
go light. Could see lows in the teens to lower 20s tomorrow
morning.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will be in control of the region through the near
term period. Other than a period of high level cloud cover that
may cross the region tonight it appears the area will be clear.

Northerly winds this morning around 10 knots will add to the
chilly feel. However highs by this afternoon should warm into
the 40s at inland locations. Cooler near the lakeshore as the
northerly winds off the cold lake keep highs in the middle to
upper 30s.

Light winds tonight combined with a very dry atmosphere will
allow for a good radiational cooling night. Lows should range
from the upper teens to the mid 20s.

The dry air that we already mentioned will allow for a quick
warm up on Wednesday. This combined with a return of a light
southerly wind should nudge highs into the 50s across inland
locations. Since there will be a weak pressure gradient across
the region a lake breeze will develop and drift inland through
the afternoon. This will impact highs along the lakeshore with
early highs in the middle and upper 40s.

The dry air may have impacts on the fire weather conditions
across the region. RH levels will drop below 25% at many locations,
especially on Wednesday. This could allow some of the taller
dead fuels, mainly grasses, from the last growing season to
ignite fairly easily. Fortunately wind speeds will be light so a
rapid spread of fire is not anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
South to southwest winds will return on the back side of an
exiting surface high pressure system moving off the New England
Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be a
little more milder Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture levels
will also increase ahead of the next frontal boundary moving
down across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Despite
high and mid level cloudiness on Thursday, temperatures will
warm into the middle and upper 50s. The mid and upper level flow
becomes zonal across the Ohio River Valley Region late Thursday
into Friday. The frontal boundary will sag into the region with
rain chances but stall out and hang out across the region for a
couple days with several rounds of showers likely.

The strong upper level trough will develop across the northern U.S.
by late Friday and move into the Great Lakes region Friday night
into Saturday. In response to the upper level trough, a surface low
will develop across the Central Plains region and ride up along the
stalled front. The EURO is a little more organized and stronger with
the surface low compared to the latest GFS. The main weather story
for the end of the week will be seasonable mild temperatures and
several rounds of rainfall. The surface low and cold front finally
moves through the area late on Saturday with widespread rainfall.
Average 3 day total rainfall forecast from Thursday to Saturday
will be about 1.0 inch to 1.5 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Colder air returns behind a cold frontal passage Saturday night and
Sunday. Highs may not get out of the 30s on Sunday despite sunshine.
The surface high will move right over northern Ohio Sunday night
into Monday morning which will allow for cold temperatures at night
down into the middle 20s. The surface high stays close by on Monday
which will keep some sunshine and dry weather to start off the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through Wednesday morning. North winds
will remain in the 6 to 12 knot range through the day becoming
light and variable by sunset.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night through Saturday in
periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
We have allowed the Smart Craft Advisory expired this morning as
winds over the lake have decreased. Winds and waves will continue to
diminish today as the center of a surface high moves across the
Great Lakes Region today and over Lake Erie by this evening. Light
and variable winds will be around tonight on the lake and light
southwest winds 5 to 10 knots will return on the backside of the
exiting surface high on Wednesday. Waves should remain 1 to 2 feet
as well. Southwest winds will increase 15 to 20 knots late Wednesday
night into Thursday ahead of a front. The front will cross the lake
and shift the winds to the north or northeast by Friday morning
before the front stalls out and lights back northward Friday
evening.  A better organized surface low will moves across the lake
on Saturday with breezy conditions and widespread rainfall. Waves
may increase as well with winds 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Griffin