Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 080829 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 429 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will briefly build in across the Great Lakes region today. Low pressure will develop to the lee of the Rockies later today and move northeast into the Ohio Valley for Sunday and Sunday night. A trough will linger across the region behind this low on Monday. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region for midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Showers continue across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA this morning as cold front continues east across the eastern Great Lakes in a supportive northwest flow regime. Showers may linger through a good portion of the day in NW PA with moisture off the lakes and have extended chance PoPs through early this afternoon. Surface high pressure and some upper level ridging will nudge the trough and northwest flow east later in the day, allowing for clearing conditions for most folks. With a similar trend to Friday, have largely matched high temperatures for Saturday with 50s for most and 40s in NW PA with the lingering rain. For tonight, clearing skies and light winds will persist across NW PA and there will be a brief period tonight for frost before clouds roll in late. Have issued a Frost Advisory for southern Erie and Crawford counties. Lows in NW PA and NE OH will be in the 30s with 40s elsewhere. For late tonight into Sunday, all attention will be on the approach of low pressure moving across the central United States. The warm front will push towards the Ohio River late tonight, bringing increasing clouds to the region. The 850 mb warm front will be across central Ohio by daybreak on Sunday and will be the key piece in widespread rainfall on Sunday. This feature will bring in deep, Gulf moisture and with forecast soundings across the region showing precipitable water values around an inch, this will allow for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. It will take most of the day for the low pressure center to reach Ohio and therefore, expect rain all day and have maintained high PoPs. The tricky part of the forecast will be temperatures. Temperatures will start cool in the lower 40s for most and with rain all day, don`t expect much of an increase through the day, but those that escape the early rain could quickly see their highs Sunday morning. Warm air advection near the surface will be late on Sunday and some of the southern counties could see their highs late, perhaps getting into the 50s. Instability will be limited across the region and thunder chances will be low, will keep thunder chances slight at best for most with chance thunder far south closer to the front on Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure will move eastward across PA Sunday night with rain gradually ending from west to east. All locations should be dry by sunrise on Monday. If clouds decrease fast enough Monday night with the winds we could have frost across a large portion of the region away from the lake. We then will be watching an upper level trough that will pivot across the central Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Cooler air aloft and a reinforcing cold front will move across the region Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air aloft and flow across the lake should result in showers across NE OH into NW PA. Cant rule out a little bit of thunder and maybe some small hail with the strongest convection that develops. High pressure takes control from the west Tuesday night with dry conditions in the wake of the evening showers. Winds decrease with the cloud cover Tuesday night with a very good chance of frost for inland locations. Continued cool temperatures through the short term. Highs ranging from the upper 40`s to maybe 60. Lows in the mid 30`s to around 40.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models diverge significantly in the long term with the GFS the outlier again this morning as it brings low pressure across Ohio Thursday into Friday. Have once again leaned heavily on the Canadian/ECMWF models for the long term. So with that said it looks as if high pressure will control the region Wednesday through Thursday night. Wanted to go below slight chance POP`s Thursday into Friday but didn`t want to flip-flop the forecast to much. However we are leaning toward a dry forecast at this point in time. Highs gradually warm through the long term period. Mid 50`s to mid 60`s common on Wednesday, then warming to the 60`s to near 70 on Friday. Still chilly Wedneday night with frost possible east. Otherwise lows will be in the 40`s for Thursday and Friday night`s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Rain moving through the region this morning will allow for some rain at terminals across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA. The best rain chances at a terminal are at KCLE, KYNG, and KERI and have brief mentions over the next several hours with the best chances for non-VFR vsby at KYNG with a more robust complex of showers. Spurious showers are possible into KMFD and KCAK but should avoid remain in the vicinity or miss the area altogether. Behind the rain, winds are becoming northwesterly and will overspread across the region. Clouds will begin to settle from VFR into the MVFR range and lower MVFR is expected where rain moved through over the last several hours. These low ceilings will persist until a wedge of drier air enters later on Saturday afternoon and ceilings should scatter out. The next system enters late and a mid level cloud deck will overspread the region on Saturday night. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible within widespread rain Sunday and Sunday night. && .MARINE...
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A cold front will cross the east end of the lake through sunrise. Northerly winds in the wake of the front will be around 20 knots. This should support waves of around 4 feet from the western basin to Geneva on the lake. So the current small craft advisory looks reasonable. Winds begin to to decrease through the day and shift to the west and southwest. Speeds hover near 15 knots and will gradually build waves from Conneaut to Ripley. Current thinking is that waves remain in the 2 to 4 foot range. However if wind speeds end up being closer to 20 knots we will need a short duration small craft advisory for the PA waters. A stronger area of low pressure will move eastward near the Ohio River Valley on Sunday with northeast to east winds developing. The strongest of the winds should occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Waves in excess of 4 feet are expected for the western 2/3rds of the lake. As the low moves east of the region Sunday night winds shift to the north and slowly decrease. Will likely need a small craft advisory starting by Sunday afternoon then continue into Monday morning. Northerly winds should persist into Tuesday morning but speeds should decrease. A surface trough will linger near the lake on Tuesday then a reinforcing surge of cooler air pushes southward across the lake by Tuesday afternoon. Will have to monitor for stronger northwest winds in the wake of the trough for a few hours Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Pas-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Lez146>144. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Lez146>147.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...MM

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