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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191415
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1015 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered north of Lake Erie will move a cold front
east across the area this morning before a brief ridge builds
over the area this afternoon. Another warm front will lift north
across the area tonight into Friday before a stronger cold front
moves east across the area on Saturday. High pressure will
return by the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 am update...
Latest hi-res model guidance is suggesting an increased chance
for precipitation with the warm front late tonight into Friday
morning. Bumped up PoPs slightly to account for this but will
wait for full suite of 12Z guidance before making major
adjustments. If this trend continues, may have to continue
increasing cloud cover, PoPs and QPF for tonight into Friday
morning. MUCAPE will be high enough for elevated convection to
be present.

Previous Discussion...
A low pressure centered north of Lake Erie is moving a cold
front east across the area this morning, resulting in a few
lingering showers over NW PA. As the boundary continues to move
east, all showers are expected to end by mid-morning, leading to
the majority of today remaining dry across the area as a brief
area of high pressure builds in. Temperatures today will be much
warmer with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Although today will be nice, another low pressure will be
developing over the central US which will bring a warm front
north across the area late today into the early overnight hours.
Along this boundary, increased isentropic lift coupled with
increased moisture may provide enough support for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop across the area. This boundary
is not expected to produce any severe weather. Temperatures
overnight again will be much warmer, only dropping into the mid-
to upper-60s as increased WAA aides in maintaining the warmer
temperatures.

By Friday morning, much of the area will be in the warm sector
of the approaching low pressure. Although there will be ample
WAA and moisture advection persisting over the area, the bulk of
Friday is expected to remain dry. The only area of interest with
this forecast is NE OH and NW PA, which models suggest will have
an area of higher CAPE, possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg, and wind
sheer values of 30-40 knots. The best timing for any
thunderstorm development looks to be between 18-00Z with the
primary threat remaining wind and possibly hail. This is a very
tricky forecast as the timing of the frontal boundary has not
been slowing in recent model runs, which may act to keep cloud
cover longer and decrease overall instability. The other thing
to watch will be the potential for any lake breeze development.
Right now the overall flow seems too strong for this to develop,
however if the winds end up weaker and one does develop this
would act as a convergence zone for possible storm initiation.
High temperatures on Friday will approach records as highs soar
into the upper-80s to low-90s across the entire area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will be fairly active for the 3rd
weekend of May. The forecast area will remain in a bubble of a warm
sector on Friday night with the region fairly capped with 700 mb
temperatures over 10 C. A cold front will approach late in the night
and attempt to bring showers into the region, but suspect that there
will be issues in convection maintaining into NW Ohio and have very
low PoPs (up to 30 percent) for Friday night. Temperatures across
the forecast area should remain warm with lows close to seasonal
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Saturday, the trend with the forecast this morning is that the
front will be slower to push east as it battles the mid-level cap
across the region. The better jet energy is far to the northwest and
is delayed to help push the front southeast. So any showers/storms
early in the day will likely be dependent on subtle boundaries (i.e.
- lake breeze or remnant outflow boundary) to fire something up.
With that, seems that coverage will be low for storms at this time
and have low/no PoPs through the early afternoon. Later in the day,
say by 21z, the cap could weaken and development elsewhere could
allow for greater coverage with the best chances in NW Ohio. With
the front staying west for much of the day, high temperatures on
Saturday will be hot once again with upper 80s/lower 90s across the
region. A temp/dew point spread of upper 80s/mid 60s would indicate
that any storm development could have ample instability for strong
updrafts, but with the better jet energy out of the area, it seems
like a gusty wind/marginal hail type of day.

For Sunday, the upper trough and associated jet energy push east and
catch up to the sluggish cold front across the forecast area. With
trends slower this morning, seems that the first half of Sunday
could be the most concerning for widespread thunderstorm coverage
and a more notable severe weather threat. The front will have at
least the eastern half of the forecast area to work with some time
early on Sunday to build some instability (with highs in the
70s/close to 80) and with the better jet energy, could have some
organized development. With that, have the highest PoPs for the
period during the daytime on Sunday with a mix of
likely/categorical. The front will clear the area by Sunday evening
and high pressure will build in for a relative dry evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be present across the Great Lakes region on
Monday with some loose upper ridging overhead and an upper trough
over the western CONUS. High pressure should keep the forecast area
dry for all of Monday and at least half of Tuesday. Temperatures
will be substantially cooler on Monday with highs in the 60s behind
Sunday`s cold front. With the upper ridge becoming more amplified
and surging in from the southeast, temperatures on Tuesday should
reach the 70s.  At some point mid-week, the western upper trough
will propagate east and support the next low pressure system through
the region. Wednesday seems like the most probable day at this point
and have the highest PoPs on Wednesday afternoon for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A mix bag of MVFR and IFR conditions have spread across the area
this morning. Ceilings below 1kft the driver of IFR in much of
the area, but conditions have begun to improve to MVFR across
western terminals as ceilings climb to near 2kft. This improving
trend with persist through the morning, spreading east and
allowing all sites to rebound to VFR conditions for much of the
afternoon. High clouds will return late this evening into the
overnight hours as a strong warm front approaches from the
south. As this boundary moves across the area, there is a chance
of scattered thunderstorms, however confidence in location
remains low. Due to this uncertainty, opted to keep all
locations in VFR, however in areas that showers occur
visibilites may briefly be reduced to MVFR.

West winds this morning will shift to become southwesterly by
this afternoon, with 10-15 knots expected along and west of I71
and 5-10 knots east of that line. As the warm front moves north
this evening, winds will again shift to become southerly,
increasing throughout the night to be sustained at 10-15 knots
for all terminals with wind gusts up to 20 knots possible.
Stronger winds are expected after this TAF period on Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms
Thursday evening. Non-VFR possible again late Friday and
Saturday in showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Thursday will be one last good marine weather day before a fairly
active weather weekend. A trough crossing the lake this morning will
allow for southerly winds to increase and then shift to the west.
There will be a period of onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots over the
eastern basin of Lake Erie, but do not believe waves will exceed 3
ft. A warm front will enter across the basin tonight and winds will
become southerly and offshore once again. These winds will then
increase significantly on Friday with good mixing in the warm side
of the front and winds to at least 20 knots are expected and there
will likely need to be a Small Craft Advisory. A cold front will
approach the lake starting on Friday night, but will take some time
to actually cross the lake. For Friday night through Saturday
evening, expect stronger southerly flow to maintain across the lake,
but showers and thunderstorms will likely enter portions of the
lake, prompting turbulent marine conditions. The initial front will
cross the lake on Saturday night into Sunday and west to northwest
flow will take over the basin. This onshore flow will likely remain
strong enough to ramp up waves and another Small Craft Advisory
could be needed. High pressure will enter the region for Monday and
Tuesday, allowing for more benign marine weather conditions. Flow
across the lake will become northeasterly and this could allow for
some higher waves building across the west end of the lake but flow
should be light enough to prevent many issues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Most locations will be near record high temperatures on Friday
and/or Saturday. Here are the record high temperatures for climate
sites for May 20th (Friday) and May 21st (Saturday).

Location    Date  Record High      Record Year

Akron/Canton    May 20(FRI)          91              1934
                May 21(SAT)          91              1934

Cleveland       May 20(FRI)          91              1962
                May 21(SAT)          89              1941

Toledo          May 20(FRI)          92              1962
                May 21(SAT)          93              1941

Youngstown      May 20(FRI)          91              1934
                May 21(SAT)          89              1934

Mansfield       May 20(FRI)          89              1962
                May 21(SAT)          89              1941

Erie            May 20(FRI)          88              2021
                May 21(SAT)          88              1911
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sefcovic
CLIMATE...