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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240205
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
905 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over and near the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states
drifts eastward the rest of today through Friday. Simultaneously, a
low moves from northern Missouri toward southern Lake Michigan,
allowing its occluded front to begin sweeping northeast across
northern Ohio. On Saturday through Sunday, the low should move
toward the Canadian Maritimes, allowing the occluded front to move
northeastward across the rest of northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Recent high-resolution guidance has hourly temperatures
slightly warmer through tonight, keeping temperatures just above
freezing generally along and west of I-77 and along the
lakeshore. This should limit the potential for mixed
precipitation especially given that precipitation chances
increase after 14 UTC, which is when temperatures creep back up
to above freezing. Made changes in the forecast to reflect a
reduced risk for freezing rain and sleet tonight and early
tomorrow morning. Even so, if there is any freezing rain, it
will be brief and fairly marginal due to light rain rates and
temperatures very close to freezing. Also significantly
increased winds and wind gusts for northwest Pennsylvania,
particularly near the lakeshore where downsloping winds could be
a problem between 22 UTC Friday and 08 UTC Saturday when a
strong low- level jet moves across the area. There will be rain
ongoing so there is some uncertainty with how much of these
winds actually mix down. For now, riding with sustained winds of
20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

Original Discussion...
Southwesterly flow aloft becomes southerly over our CWA on Friday
and Friday night as a mid- to upper-level low moves from eastern
Kansas toward southern Michigan. The accompanying surface low should
move from northern Missouri late this afternoon toward southern Lake
Michigan by daybreak Saturday as a high pressure ridge over/near the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States continues to drift eastward. The
occluded front accompanying the surface low should sweep
northeastward over our Ohio counties Friday evening through the
predawn hours of Saturday and near the northeast Ohio/northwest
Pennsylvania border by daybreak.

Flow aloft will continue undergoing isentropic lift the rest of this
afternoon and tonight. In addition, a greater moisture tap from the
Gulf of Mexico will eventually propagate eastward over our CWA. This
will allow precipitation to overspread much of northern Ohio from
west to east this evening through daybreak Friday. The bulk of this
precip is expected to fall as rain. However, vertical profiles of
temperature and wet-bulb temperature may allow precip to fall as
light snow and/or freezing rain, especially west of I-77. Any snow
accumulations should be less than a half inch, while any ice
accumulations should be a trace to 0.02". Given there is only a
slight chance of freezing rain, refrained from issuing a Winter
Weather Advisory. The evening and overnight shifts will have to
continue monitoring this freezing rain potential closely. Low
temperatures will primarily reach the upper 20`s to lower 30`s
tonight, with the coldest readings expected in interior northwest
Pennsylvania.

On Friday, periods of precipitation, mainly in the form of rain,
continue overspreading northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania from
west to east as southerly flow aloft undergoes isentropic lift and
the Gulf of Mexico moisture tap continues propagating eastward. The
rain could be moderate to heavy at times. Also, pockets of freezing
rain and/or wet snow are possible in northern Ohio between daybreak
and mid-morning. Little or no additional accumulation of snow or ice
is expected. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 30`s
to mid 40`s with a general west to east gradient in high
temperatures.

Rain should lessen in intensity and become more sporadic Friday
night as the low pressure system`s dry slot begins overspreading our
CWA from the west. However, lingering low-level cloud cover should
be sufficiently-thick to produce periods of light precip. The rain
may mix with or change to wet snow after midnight as nocturnal
cooling occurs. However, any snow accumulations should be minor. Low
temperatures should reach the lower to mid 30`s in most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low pressure system will be centered over the western
Great Lakes Saturday morning. Models are consistent with this low
pressure becoming nearly vertically stacked over the region and
slowly progressing eastward toward New England by Sunday evening. A
southerly flow Saturday morning will allow moisture to continue to
move into the area. Moisture couples with upper level support will
allow lingering rain showers to occur through Saturday. Lake
enhanced precipitation will increase the chances of precipitation in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A chance of snow showers
cannot be ruled out as diurnal temperature changes will allow
temperatures to drop to near or slightly below freezing, resulting
in the rain to mix with snow. Winds are expected to increase on
Sunday as the back side of the low pressure moves over the area.
Surface temperatures are expected to remain above average throughout
the weekend with highs near 40 and lows dropping to the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday, an upper-level short wave trough will progress through
northern Ohio & northwest Pennsylvania. Winds are expected to weaken
and shift to become westerly. Chances of precipitation diminish on
Monday, however return Tuesday evening as a shortwave trough again
impacts the area. Widespread precipitation is not anticipated as
moisture and forcing are best to the south of the area. A weak high
pressure system will build in over the area on Wednesday. A low
pressure system will develop in the Southern Plains and more east
towards the East Coast. Model consistency with this system is
lacking, however if it shifts slightly north or changes the
projected track, Wednesday night into Thursday could see the
potential for more rain/snow showers. High temperatures are expected
to remain above average through Thursday across all of northern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A surface low currently located over Missouri will work its way
northeast tonight and tomorrow, with precipitation overspreading
the region from southwest to northeast. Precipitation is likely
to be all rain through the period with a slight chance for some
mixed precipitation mixing in on the leading edge before 14 UTC
Friday. The chance for mixed precipitation has been greatly
reduced with this TAF update due to temperatures trending warmer
in high-resolution guidance. Because of this opted to keep any
mention of mixed precipitation out of all TAFs. A gradual
reduction in ceilings will accompany widespread rain, reducing
the MVFR conditions by Friday morning and to IFR conditions shortly
after. The exception is KERI where VFR conditions may linger
with downsloping winds. Periods of moderate rain is likely with
visibility occasionally dropping down to as low as 1 SM,
especially after 18 UTC.

East to southeast winds of 8 to 12 knots expected across the
area with gusts up to 20 knots. The exception will be KERI
where downsloping winds will intensify towards the end of the
TAF period as a strong low-level jet moves over the area.
Upwards of 20 knot winds with gusts up to 30 knots will become
possible after 23 UTC Friday. This low-level jet will also add
additional issues in the form of LLWS, which has been added to
all TAFs except KTOL and KFDY.

.OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR likely with rain and snow Friday
night through Saturday night. Lake effect snow develops on
Sunday and lingers through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie is expected to remain quiet through Friday morning with
winds east-southeast at 5 to 10 knots. As an approaching low
pressure begins to impact the region Friday night, winds are
expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots from the east. Waves during
this time are expected to be 1 to 2 feet, with highest waves in the
western basin. There is no small craft advisory expected through
that period. The next chance for a small craft advisory appears to
be on Sunday and Sunday night for the eastern portions of Lake Erie
as the back end of the low moves across Lake Erie. Winds and waves
are expected to diminish by Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Campbell