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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260844
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually move to the New England Coast today.
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight. High
pressure will return to the area Saturday. A low pressure
system will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level ridge over the local area will shift east with
the resultant surface high pressure. Fair weather will be the
rule for today. A weak upper level shortwave trough will move
east across the Great Lakes region with nothing more than some
high clouds associated with it this evening. A warm front will
lift northeast of the area tonight. The warm front will force
winds to increase from the south to 10 to 25 knots with higher
gusts near the shoreline. As the warm front approaches the local
area later tonight, a swath of moisture will shift east into the
local area with the warm front. The frontal passage will trigger
some light precipitation with QFF amounts roughly one tenth of
an inch or less overnight. Latest model soundings support mostly
rain across the area but some wet snow will mix in across the
extreme north overnight. If any snow accumulation occurs, only
expecting about 0.3 tenths of an inch in the extreme northwest
portion of the area and none elsewhere where the precipitation
should be predominantly rain. Amplification of an upper level
ridge will take place over the eastern United States by Saturday
evening. This feature will force a surface high pressure to move
quickly east over the local area. A return back to fair weather
is expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Temperatures
should be a bit warmer today in the lower to middle 40s as the
high pushes east of the area. Warm front lifting northeast will
bring a period of warm air advection for tonight with lows in
the middle to upper 30s. Highs Saturday behind the warm front
will be in the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure should be briefly in control of the region Saturday
night as the next warm front lifts toward the region from the
southwest. The warm front should at least reach the southern shore
of the lake on Sunday. Expect to see an increase in showers from
south to north by sunrise Sunday then gradually end from west to
east through the afternoon. There could be a little bit of snow as
it begins Saturday night across the northern CWA. No accumulations
are expected as we transition quickly to all rain for Sunday. The
cold front sweeps west to east across the region Sunday evening.
Some weaker lake effect rain/snow showers will be possible Sunday
night but again any accumulations look very light. A reinforcing
surge of colder air will arrive Monday afternoon with an uptick in
the precipitation chances across NE OH/NW PA. Some lake effect snow
showers will then linger through Monday night across NW PA but any
accumulations should once again be light. Just enough around to
remind us that it is still winter.

It will be breezy Sunday afternoon and remain that way into Monday.
Winds should be strongest on Monday with 15 to 25 mph winds common.

Lows are expected to be early Saturday evening then slowly warm
through the night. Sunday will see highs into the 50`s at most
locations. Cooler in the wake of the cold front Sunday night with
lows in the lower 30`s. Cooler on Monday but still will see highs
range from the mid 30`s to mid 40`s. Coldest air arrives Monday
night with lows in the teens to around 20.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather on Tuesday with dry
conditions. Models then become very uncertain Tuesday night into
Wednesday night as a southern jet stream storm system tracks
eastward to the south of the Ohio River Valley. The uncertainty is
how much moisture can be lobbed northward into Ohio. If it does
occur it looks like the precipitation will be light. For now will
only mention slight chances in the grids. Another upper level trough
will move across the central Great Lakes Wednesday night into
Thursday but there isnt all that much moisture for it to work with
at this time. Will monitor its movement over the next few days.

After highs in the mid 30`s to mid 40`s on Tuesday it looks as if
the long term will see temperatures above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A large area of high pressure will dominate the local area today
as it moves off to the eastern seaboard. Mainly high clouds will
affect the region during a majority of the forecast period.
However, a warm front will move north across the area tonight
and bring with it lowering clouds down to MVFR and then
potentially IFR. Rain will spread into the Cleveland area after
06z. Winds will gradually shift around to the south by tonight
and increase during the overnight hours to 10 to 20 knots inland
and 15 to 25 knots near the lake.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain and/or snow
Friday night through Saturday and again Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over Ohio early this morning will drift of the East
Coast of the US this afternoon. This will allow light winds to
become east to southeast by this evening then continue into the
overnight. A warm front will lift across the lake by Saturday
morning with a southwest wind expected through the day. High
pressure should briefly influence the lake Saturday night with light
winds becoming easterly once again as another warm front moves
toward the lake from the southwest. This warm front should move at
least to the south shore of the lake by Sunday afternoon. As low
pressure passes over the central Great Lakes to Ontario Sunday
evening it will pull a cold front west to east across the lake.
Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of this low then become west
to northwest on Monday as another upper level trough passes
overhead. This will bring a reinforcing surge of colder air. Winds
should be 15 to 25 knots on Monday with higher gusts. High pressure
begins to move onto the west end of the lake Monday night with winds
relaxing by sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...MM