Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 260844 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 344 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually move to the New England Coast today. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight. High pressure will return to the area Saturday. A low pressure system will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level ridge over the local area will shift east with the resultant surface high pressure. Fair weather will be the rule for today. A weak upper level shortwave trough will move east across the Great Lakes region with nothing more than some high clouds associated with it this evening. A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight. The warm front will force winds to increase from the south to 10 to 25 knots with higher gusts near the shoreline. As the warm front approaches the local area later tonight, a swath of moisture will shift east into the local area with the warm front. The frontal passage will trigger some light precipitation with QFF amounts roughly one tenth of an inch or less overnight. Latest model soundings support mostly rain across the area but some wet snow will mix in across the extreme north overnight. If any snow accumulation occurs, only expecting about 0.3 tenths of an inch in the extreme northwest portion of the area and none elsewhere where the precipitation should be predominantly rain. Amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the eastern United States by Saturday evening. This feature will force a surface high pressure to move quickly east over the local area. A return back to fair weather is expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Temperatures should be a bit warmer today in the lower to middle 40s as the high pushes east of the area. Warm front lifting northeast will bring a period of warm air advection for tonight with lows in the middle to upper 30s. Highs Saturday behind the warm front will be in the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure should be briefly in control of the region Saturday night as the next warm front lifts toward the region from the southwest. The warm front should at least reach the southern shore of the lake on Sunday. Expect to see an increase in showers from south to north by sunrise Sunday then gradually end from west to east through the afternoon. There could be a little bit of snow as it begins Saturday night across the northern CWA. No accumulations are expected as we transition quickly to all rain for Sunday. The cold front sweeps west to east across the region Sunday evening. Some weaker lake effect rain/snow showers will be possible Sunday night but again any accumulations look very light. A reinforcing surge of colder air will arrive Monday afternoon with an uptick in the precipitation chances across NE OH/NW PA. Some lake effect snow showers will then linger through Monday night across NW PA but any accumulations should once again be light. Just enough around to remind us that it is still winter. It will be breezy Sunday afternoon and remain that way into Monday. Winds should be strongest on Monday with 15 to 25 mph winds common. Lows are expected to be early Saturday evening then slowly warm through the night. Sunday will see highs into the 50`s at most locations. Cooler in the wake of the cold front Sunday night with lows in the lower 30`s. Cooler on Monday but still will see highs range from the mid 30`s to mid 40`s. Coldest air arrives Monday night with lows in the teens to around 20. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will dominate the weather on Tuesday with dry conditions. Models then become very uncertain Tuesday night into Wednesday night as a southern jet stream storm system tracks eastward to the south of the Ohio River Valley. The uncertainty is how much moisture can be lobbed northward into Ohio. If it does occur it looks like the precipitation will be light. For now will only mention slight chances in the grids. Another upper level trough will move across the central Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday but there isnt all that much moisture for it to work with at this time. Will monitor its movement over the next few days. After highs in the mid 30`s to mid 40`s on Tuesday it looks as if the long term will see temperatures above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A large area of high pressure will dominate the local area today as it moves off to the eastern seaboard. Mainly high clouds will affect the region during a majority of the forecast period. However, a warm front will move north across the area tonight and bring with it lowering clouds down to MVFR and then potentially IFR. Rain will spread into the Cleveland area after 06z. Winds will gradually shift around to the south by tonight and increase during the overnight hours to 10 to 20 knots inland and 15 to 25 knots near the lake. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain and/or snow Friday night through Saturday and again Sunday and Sunday night. && .MARINE... High pressure over Ohio early this morning will drift of the East Coast of the US this afternoon. This will allow light winds to become east to southeast by this evening then continue into the overnight. A warm front will lift across the lake by Saturday morning with a southwest wind expected through the day. High pressure should briefly influence the lake Saturday night with light winds becoming easterly once again as another warm front moves toward the lake from the southwest. This warm front should move at least to the south shore of the lake by Sunday afternoon. As low pressure passes over the central Great Lakes to Ontario Sunday evening it will pull a cold front west to east across the lake. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of this low then become west to northwest on Monday as another upper level trough passes overhead. This will bring a reinforcing surge of colder air. Winds should be 15 to 25 knots on Monday with higher gusts. High pressure begins to move onto the west end of the lake Monday night with winds relaxing by sunrise Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...MM

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