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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 080829
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
429 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will briefly build in across the Great Lakes
region today. Low pressure will develop to the lee of the
Rockies later today and move northeast into the Ohio Valley for
Sunday and Sunday night. A trough will linger across the region
behind this low on Monday. A cold front will move through the
region on Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region for
midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Showers continue across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA this
morning as cold front continues east across the eastern Great
Lakes in a supportive northwest flow regime. Showers may linger
through a good portion of the day in NW PA with moisture off the
lakes and have extended chance PoPs through early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure and some upper level ridging
will nudge the trough and northwest flow east later in the day,
allowing for clearing conditions for most folks. With a similar
trend to Friday, have largely matched high temperatures for
Saturday with 50s for most and 40s in NW PA with the lingering
rain. For tonight, clearing skies and light winds will persist
across NW PA and there will be a brief period tonight for frost
before clouds roll in late. Have issued a Frost Advisory for
southern Erie and Crawford counties. Lows in NW PA and NE OH
will be in the 30s with 40s elsewhere.

For late tonight into Sunday, all attention will be on the
approach of low pressure moving across the central United
States. The warm front will push towards the Ohio River late
tonight, bringing increasing clouds to the region. The 850 mb
warm front will be across central Ohio by daybreak on Sunday and
will be the key piece in widespread rainfall on Sunday. This
feature will bring in deep, Gulf moisture and with forecast
soundings across the region showing precipitable water values
around an inch, this will allow for periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall. It will take most of the day for the low pressure
center to reach Ohio and therefore, expect rain all day and have
maintained high PoPs. The tricky part of the forecast will be
temperatures. Temperatures will start cool in the lower 40s for
most and with rain all day, don`t expect much of an increase
through the day, but those that escape the early rain could
quickly see their highs Sunday morning. Warm air advection near
the surface will be late on Sunday and some of the southern
counties could see their highs late, perhaps getting into the
50s. Instability will be limited across the region and thunder
chances will be low, will keep thunder chances slight at best
for most with chance thunder far south closer to the front on
Sunday afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure will move eastward across PA Sunday night with rain
gradually ending from west to east. All locations should be dry by
sunrise on Monday. If clouds decrease fast enough Monday night with
the winds we could have frost across a large portion of the region
away from the lake. We then will be watching an upper level trough
that will pivot across the central Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday. Cooler air aloft and a reinforcing cold front will move
across the region Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air aloft and flow
across the lake should result in showers across NE OH into NW PA.
Cant rule out a little bit of thunder and maybe some small hail with
the strongest convection that develops. High pressure takes control
from the west Tuesday night with dry conditions in the wake of the
evening showers. Winds decrease with the cloud cover Tuesday night
with a very good chance of frost for inland locations.

Continued cool temperatures through the short term. Highs ranging
from the upper 40`s to maybe 60. Lows in the mid 30`s to around
40.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models diverge significantly in the long term with the GFS the
outlier again this morning as it brings low pressure across Ohio
Thursday into Friday. Have once again leaned heavily on the
Canadian/ECMWF models for the long term. So with that said it looks
as if high pressure will control the region Wednesday through
Thursday night. Wanted to go below slight chance POP`s Thursday into
Friday but didn`t want to flip-flop the forecast to much.
However we are leaning toward a dry forecast at this point in
time.

Highs gradually warm through the long term period. Mid 50`s to mid
60`s common on Wednesday, then warming to the 60`s to near 70 on
Friday. Still chilly Wedneday night with frost possible east.
Otherwise lows will be in the 40`s for Thursday and Friday
night`s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Rain moving through the region this morning will allow for some
rain at terminals across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA. The
best rain chances at a terminal are at KCLE, KYNG, and KERI and
have brief mentions over the next several hours with the best
chances for non-VFR vsby at KYNG with a more robust complex of
showers. Spurious showers are possible into KMFD and KCAK but
should avoid remain in the vicinity or miss the area altogether.
Behind the rain, winds are becoming northwesterly and will
overspread across the region. Clouds will begin to settle from
VFR into the MVFR range and lower MVFR is expected where rain
moved through over the last several hours. These low ceilings
will persist until a wedge of drier air enters later on Saturday
afternoon and ceilings should scatter out. The next system
enters late and a mid level cloud deck will overspread the
region on Saturday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible within widespread rain
Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
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A cold front will cross the east end of the lake through sunrise.
Northerly winds in the wake of the front will be around 20 knots.
This should support waves of around 4 feet from the western basin to
Geneva on the lake. So the current small craft advisory looks
reasonable. Winds begin to to decrease through the day and shift to
the west and southwest. Speeds hover near 15 knots and will
gradually build waves from Conneaut to Ripley. Current thinking is
that waves remain in the 2 to 4 foot range. However if wind speeds
end up being closer to 20 knots we will need a short duration small
craft advisory for the PA waters.

A stronger area of low pressure will move eastward near the Ohio
River Valley on Sunday with northeast to east winds developing. The
strongest of the winds should occur Sunday afternoon and evening.
Waves in excess of 4 feet are expected for the western 2/3rds of the
lake. As the low moves east of the region Sunday night winds
shift to the north and slowly decrease. Will likely need a small
craft advisory starting by Sunday afternoon then continue into
Monday morning. Northerly winds should persist into Tuesday
morning but speeds should decrease. A surface trough will linger
near the lake on Tuesday then a reinforcing surge of cooler air
pushes southward across the lake by Tuesday afternoon. Will
have to monitor for stronger northwest winds in the wake of the
trough for a few hours Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None.
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
 Pas-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this
morning for Lez146>144. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT
this afternoon for Lez146>147.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...MM