Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210540 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1240 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the region from the west tonight into Monday. The next system may bring a wintry mix and even some rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another storm system for the end of the week may bring another round of snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Lorain and Cuyahoga Counties. Although snow remains possible in the southern portions of these counties, amounts will be limited. The warning remains in effect for the remainder of the primary and secondary snow belt as we continue to grind out steady snow across much of the area with a heavier snow band extending from Lake Huron into Ashtabula County. The band is likely to persist in Ashtabula County through the early morning hours before the dry air wins out and it starts to break up. Best estimates are for another 2-4 inches of very fluffy snow in Ashtabula/eastern Trumbull Counties. Road Cams and reports from ODOT indicate snow continuing to accumulate on roadways with slow conditions across the secondary snow belt. We will eventually start to see some drier air working in from the west but it has been slow so left the warnings in tact. Additional accumulations will be more like 1-2 inches but blowing remains a factor with visibilites dropping below a mile at times. Previous discussion... Lake effect snow continues across NE Ohio this afternoon with a connection to Lake Huron being observed. This band has shifted up the lake and is now oriented across eastern Cuyahoga county across western Geauga county into Portage county. Additional lake effect snow showers persist west of this main band. the main band of snow has been producing an inch of snow in under 20 minutes as it wobbles across the area. Maximum amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible overnight, although a locally higher amount is possible. Elsewhere across the secondary snowbelt and over NW PA some light accumulations are anticipated into the overnight. Current thinking is that these areas should remain in the 1 to maybe 2 inch range. The main reason to keep the Winter Storm Warning going is the gusty winds that will continue to reduce visibilities and produce dangerous driving conditions. Arctic high pressure will continue to slowly build into the region overnight allowing skies to clear across the west and potential portions of NE OH and NW PA. Elsewhere skies will remain mostly cloudy but believe winds will remain in the 10 to 15 mph range so wind chill values should dip below -10. NW Ohio and the southwestern CWA will be the coldest areas with wind chills around -20. Will have to monitor this region for a potential wind chill warning. High pressure should eventually move far enough east to allow the remaining lake effect snow showers to end across NE OH into NW PA by Monday evening. Monday night will be another cold night with temperatures ranging from -5 to 5 degrees. Easterly winds begin to increase toward sunrise on Tuesday so we will need to monitor for a short period where wind chill temperatures dip below -10. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... By Tuesday, we will see the center of the Arctic high moving away from the region and southerly winds returning across the area. Temperatures will begin to moderate to average levels. Most locations will reach if not barely over the freezing mark by Tuesday afternoon. All model guidance is in good agreement with the mid week system. An upper level trough will develop and dig across the central U.S. by Tuesday night. An area of low pressure will move across the Midwest up into lower Michigan. We will be mostly on the warm side of this next system for most of the precipitation. Moisture will begin move in Tuesday night. We might have to monitor some fog potential as milder and moist air moves over our snow pack Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We may see a light wintry with the onset of precip moving end Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Confidence is low at this time on how much and how quickly the freezing line will move northward during the night. Expect a widespread and cold rain by Wednesday morning for much of the area with breezy southerly winds. Temperatures will climb to the 40s by late Wednesday morning or midday. A cold front will move through Wednesday afternoon and as temperatures cool down from west to east, we will see the rain change back to light snow. We may end up seeing around an inch of light snow on the back side behind the front. The main concern to watch for Wednesday night into Thursday will be models are indicating a wave of low pressure to travel up the stalling frontal boundary near the Appalachians. If this occurs, our southeastern areas may have a another wave or snow moving through late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance shows between a 10% to 30% chance of exceeding a .25 of an inch of liquid for snowfall during this time frame which would be several inches of snowfall possible. Confidence is low but something to watch. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another strong Arctic cold front will move through Thursday night. This will bring another round of widespread light snow and much colder temperatures for the end of the week. Several more inches of synoptic snow is possible early Friday and then the Lake Effect Snow machines will be turned back on late Friday through the weekend for all the Snowbelt areas with temperatures way below average. Moderate to heavy snowfall could be possible again for the Snowbelt areas. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Light lake effect snow showers continue from LPR eastward and may impact CAK/YNG with temporary IFR. CLE may see a vsby dip to MVFR in a snow shower. These are expected to stick around through mid morning before ending in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will be confined to the the lakeshore counties, but expect a small bit of expansion overnight. Ceilings then rise to VFR and scatter Monday evening. Minor gusts remain out of the northwest across the eastern terminals and those will continue to diminish over the next 12 hours. ERI will hang on to the gusts through Monday. Winds will back to the west and then south Monday/Monday evening. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night into Friday. && .MARINE... We have concerns continuing from the strong gusty winds and very cold temperatures over the lake. No changes have been made to the Small Craft Advisories at this time. Gusty northerly winds will continue between 20 and 30 knots but gradually decrease by late Monday. Winds may become light and variable by Monday evening. We have issued an Ice Advisory for the western portions of the lake over the next couple of days. We are forecasting a rapid increase of lake ice especially when the winds relax and the Arctic airmass moves over the lake through the next 36 to 48 hours. We also have a Heavy Freezing Spray warning for the entire lake through Monday morning. Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots will return on the lake Tuesday ahead of the next area of low pressure. Winds shift by Wednesday afternoon behind a cold front to westerly 10 to 20 knots. Strong and gusty winds return with a strong cold front for the end of the week and small craft advisories likely if not possible Gales again. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for OHZ012>014-020>023-089. Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>149-162>169. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.