Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220520 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 120 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift to New England overnight while low pressure drifts from Iowa to Illinois. A warm front east from the low will move north into the area Friday. The low will remain in the area through Saturday. Sunday high pressure will begin building in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers have moved further to the northeast than earlier thought so we expanded some low POP`s into northeast Ohio. A hundredth or two may occur. Otherwise scattered showers will continue through the night from the Mid Ohio region to NW Ohio. Thunder chances look low. Original discussion... Low pressure over Iowa will move to Illinois overnight. A stationary front east from the low across southern Ohio will turn warm and move north into the area by Friday afternoon. Radar shows a swath of convection from WI southeast across swrn Ohio and into the TN Vly. This convection was moving slowly northeast and will move into the southwest CWA counties this evening filling in to near Cleveland by Friday morning. Do however expect coverage and intensity to decrease through the overnight hours with loss of heating. Models show this swath of overrunning convection should lift north of the CWA Friday afternoon although it could get hung up across northeast Oh and nwrn PA through the afternoon. With the warm front in the area however expect additional convection to develop along the boundary and this could turn heavy at times especially if training develops. BUFKIT also shows motion vectors of 10 knots or less supporting the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Best chances for this would be western and southern counties. The low will move across the TOL area Friday night favored continues convection central and east through the overnight as slightly drier air wraps into the west. Aside from low pops early tonight central and east, will have likely to categorical pops through the near term period. Lows in the 60s highs Friday in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... There likely will be no escaping the rain on Saturday, the question more becomes if we can find chances for less widespread/more scattered activity (lulls). The low will be crossing overhead Saturday and much of the influence from it will take place, broadly speaking, during the first half of the day. The wave will have passed by Saturday evening/Saturday night and have weighted the precip chances accordingly. The heavy rainfall threat will be a continuation from the near term period and will still be a concern into Saturday. A cold front/trough from the upper lakes in advance of high pressure for Monday will cross the area Sunday with another uptick in precip chances, albeit less than Saturday as it looks right now. Temperatures will still be seasonable despite the cloud cover with the warm airmass. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s until the drier high moves in Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues into at least Wednesday morning as high pressure remains firmly in place over the region. A warming trend will continue Tuesday into at least Wednesday...with temperatures generally near normal to around 5 degrees above normal. On Wednesday morning an upper low over southern Minnesota will move quickly northeast into Ontario by Thursday morning. This system will bring a good shot of precipitation to the area beginning as early as Wednesday with possible showers continuing into Thursday. There are still timing and intensity differences between the GFS and the ECMWF...so just mainly left precipitation chances to either a slight chance to a chance. We will continue to monitor how this system evolves and update the forecast accordingly once we have more confidence. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Scattered showers will continue across the Mid Ohio region to NW Ohio through the night while a weakening area of very light rain moves into NE Ohio. MVFR ceilings will slowly spread from southwest to northeast through the day as some deeper moisture arrives ahead of low pressure. IFR conditions will occur with the heavier showers/thunderstorms on Friday. Timing of the showers/thunderstorms will be difficult with occasional wording in all the public products. Winds will remain easterly through the afternoon at 10 to 15 knots, strongest across the NW PA lakeshore area. As a warm front lifts into northern Ohio winds should shift to the southeast and south overnight. Speeds should decrease slightly. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions likely SAturday into Sunday in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Water levels across the Western Basin of Lake Erie have reached critical levels for some coastal flooding. Easterly winds will not decrease until later today so we will have to evaluate the end time of the flooding. Previous Discussion... Expanded the beach/swimming hazards statement to include all of the beaches from Maumee State Park to Ripley NY. Previous discussion...Northeast flow is steadily picking up on the lake this afternoon and waves are responding. A small craft advisory is in place through tonight and into Friday morning. Toward Friday morning the winds will begin to shift more east and then east-southeast and will generate higher waves further offshore across the east end of the lake. So for now have the east end small craft advisory expiring at 4am and the rest of the area expiring at 10 am. There is a chance this may need to be extended further into Friday especially around the Islands. This will all be happening as high pressure shifts southeast across the eastern lakes and New England and low pressure across the midwest/Iowa slowly shifts east, tightening the gradient. The low will reach the west end of the lake for Saturday with its associated warm/cold fronts. A final trough will cross the lake Sunday with high pressure building across the region for Monday and Tuesday. So Friday night winds/waves subside more significantly. As the low passes winds will shift to the west with a shift to the north-northeast as the high builds early next work week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-007-009>012. Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ089. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-007. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ148-149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Riley AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Oudeman/Sefcovic

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