Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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333 FXUS61 KCLE 200213 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1013 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening before lifting to the north as a warm front on Monday. A stronger cold front will cross through the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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9:30 PM Update... Convection near Lucas and Wood Counties continues to hang on. There is almost no shear available due to the weak wind fields, but it continues to regenerate along the low-level convergence of the synoptic front and numerous outflow boundaries. Locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches could occur where the cells persist over the next hour or two before waning instability finally allows it to dissipate. Temperatures look good overnight, so no changes were made. 6:30 PM Update... The forecast remains on track this evening. Chance PoPs in NW Ohio this evening still look good with the broken line of convection currently over northern Indiana and SE Michigan. This activity will sink into the region over the next 1-2 hours and could produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds given MUCAPE up to 2000 J/Kg and high DCAPE up to 1400 J/Kg. However, the cold frontal boundary is already stalling as it runs into building mid/upper ridging, so the convection will not make it any farther than NW Ohio before it moves away from the upper support and diurnal cooling sets in. Everything should be largely dissipated by 03 or 04Z. Original Discussion... A very warm May afternoon with everyone outside of a lake breeze along the eastern lakeshore surging well into the 80s, with the Toledo area approaching 90. A weak cold front will approach Northwest Ohio this evening before lifting well to our north as a warm front on Monday. Outside of the front itself forcing is limited, but cumulus are percolating along it from Indiana into southeast lower Michigan with a few showers / storms attempting to fire. Expect isolated to scattered activity to fill in and sag towards the Toledo area this evening before gradually dissipating between sunset and midnight due to a lack of forcing and gradual stabilization with the loss of daytime heating. Very weak shear and forcing preclude any kind of organized severe weather threat, but steep low-level lapse rates and large DCAPE do suggest a strong to locally damaging downburst can`t be ruled out with the strongest cell or two. Greatest concern for a stronger storm is just northwest of our area, but it`s worth watching if any stronger storms to drift towards Toledo this evening. Some guidance tries re-firing a few showers in the vicinity of North Central Ohio during the pre-dawn Monday, perhaps as modest warm air advection kicks in and interacts with any lingering outflow boundaries from this evening`s activity. Confidence in this scenario is very low so left mentionable POPs out of the forecast after midnight. The rest of northern OH and northwestern PA will confidently remain dry tonight with very patchy river valley fog from eastern OH into western PA. The Monday and Monday night period will remain very warm and generally dry beneath strong ridging aloft. Expect plenty of sun to start the day Monday. Strong heating of a fairly moist airmass will yield modest to moderate, uncapped CAPE into Monday afternoon. It`s hard to find much forcing, though the combination of a lake breeze, a very subtle vort max (evident on multiple models at 250mb), and modest low-level warm air advection could be enough for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop across northern and perhaps western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon. Have slight chance to low chance (20-30%) POPs to cover this, highest along and just inland from the central lakeshore. Like today, shear and forcing will be quite weak which will generally limit any severe weather threat if storms can develop Monday. However, the thermodynamics could still support a couple of stronger downbursts and perhaps marginal hail with the most intense cells...most likely with any cells that fire on and get a boost from the lake breeze. Look for activity to gradually diminish after sunset Monday night given a general lack of forcing. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s in a few interior valleys from Northeast OH into Northwest PA to the mid to even upper 60s along and west of I-71. Highs on Monday well into the 80s, with potential to get close to 90 from Cleveland west towards Toledo and Findlay, assuming showers / storms don`t become more widespread than expected. Lows Monday night will stay in the 60s, with a few spots (such as Cleveland and Northwest OH) struggling to cool much below 70. It will certainly feel like summer to start the work week!
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An active short term period is in store as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. For Tuesday, a surface boundary will lift across the region accompanied by a weak upper level shortwave. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern Ohio Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, the surface low will occlude over the Upper Midwest while its accompanying cold front stalls out in the vicinity of Illinois/Indiana. As the front remains stalled, robust southerly flow will continue to fuel a warm and moist airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. The timing of the frontal passage continues to slow down with the front not entering western counties until late Wednesday night. Given the warm and humid airmass in place with MLCAPE values progged between 1500-2000 J/kg accompanied by bulk shear values of 30-35 kts, a severe weather threat remains on the table for Wednesday. An inhibiting factor will be cloud debris from earlier convection early Wednesday which could minimize destabilization across Northern Ohio. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected in the short term period with highs reaching the mid 80s to near 90s degrees on Tuesday. Still some uncertainty with the precipitation forecast on Tuesday, but those who remain dry and mainly sunny could flirt with 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Warm again on Wednesday ahead of the cold front passage, though more expansive cloud cover with scattered showers and storms during the day Wednesday will keep highs closer to the low to mid 80s. Warm overnight lows on Tuesday night into the upper 60s to lower 70s turn cooler behind the frontal passage Wednesday night as they settle in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quieter long term period as PoPs exit from west to east behind the frontal passage Thursday. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead by Friday and will keep us dry to end the week. Precipitation comes back into the forecast for next weekend as the previous cold front lifts back north as a warm front. Near normal temperatures through the long term in the mid to upper 70s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR will generally prevail at all sites through the period. The exception is KTOL and KFDY which may see a thunderstorm over the terminals within the next 1 to 3 hours causing brief drops to MVFR or lower, as well as KERI which could see some MVFR mist late tonight. Regarding the thunderstorms, there is currently a broken line from central Indiana to western Lake Erie. If these affect KTOL and KFDY, it would be between now and 03Z at the latest, but they will be weakening with east and southeastward extent, so kept the mention to VCTS in the TAFs. Regarding the mist late tonight around KERI, confidence is also fairly low. We mixed out deeper this afternoon, so no dense fog is expected tonight, but HREF guidance suggests light NE flow off Lake Erie below a lingering inversion could cause some lower visibilities late tonight, so added 5SM to the KERI TAF. If anything lower occurs, it should not last long. Most areas will stay dry Monday, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible along the lake breeze boundary in the afternoon around KCLE. Light and variable winds tonight will become S to SW at 5-10 knots Monday. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions continue on Lake Erie to end the weekend and begin the week as high pressure remains overhead. A warm front will lift north across the lake Monday and allow for winds to become southeasterly at 5-10 knots. Low pressure lifts northeastward toward the Northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will drag a cold front east across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds remain generally southerly ahead of the frontal passage but increase to 10-20 knots during the day Wednesday. Winds then turn westerly at 10-15 knots behind the front for Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for OHZ010>014-020>022-089. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Iverson