Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 031359 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure this morning will drift east as a cold front approaches from the central Great Lakes. A weak low will move into southern Ontario this afternoon then reach western New York Tuesday morning. A cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east through Tuesday morning. High pressure will build across the region midweek into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Minor adjustments to pops with the mid morning update. Hi-res guidance indicating some shower and possible thunderstorms developing from southwest to northeast across the area beginning early this afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-71 corridor. Ongoing forecast was a little quicker with development vs. the latest model trends, so slowed down the arrival of chance/low likely pops a few hours. Otherwise, the forecast is generally on track. Original discussion... Showers will gradually increase ahead of a cold front today as an upper level trough cools the atmosphere aloft. The cooling aloft may result in scattered thunderstorms but do not think the thunder will be widespread. Cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly below seasonal averages with highs ranging from the upper 70`s to around 80. Cold front continues its move across the region tonight with a continuation of showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Think the thunder will dissipate after sunset but expect scattered showers to persist through the night. Cold front will reach the eastern CWA by sunrise on Tuesday. Lows tonight in the 60`s. Upper level trough will trail the surface cold front that should be east of the region by Tuesday afternoon. Still enough cool air aloft in the wake of the front for some high based showers through sunset. These will mainly be across NE OH/NW PA. Cooler in the wake of the front on Tuesday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70`s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough will remain persistent across the Great Lakes region Tuesday night and then quickly shift off to the east Wednesday. Broad cyclonic flow will be present Wednesday followed by a shortwave trough that will shift east over the area Thursday. Surface high pressure will build northeast across the area through Thursday night and will bring a return to fair weather to the region. Large area of upper level negative vorticity advection and fairly dry air will also be a dominant feature across the area. As the surface high slides east into the region, some cold air advection will take place keeping temperatures relatively cool through the period. Highs Wednesday will be in the middle 70s and Thursday will see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Otherwise, lows will be in the lower to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level shortwave trough will race east across the area Friday with a vigorous positive vorticity advection taking place. Ridging will move east over the area Saturday resulting in the stalling of the surface high pressure over the northern Appalachians to New York state by Sunday morning. A series of fast moving shortwave troughs will move into the area Sunday and Sunday night with some associated moisture. Can`t rule out a threat for showers and thunderstorms possibly late Saturday night or Sunday into Sunday night. As surface high pressure shifts east, a return to a warm air advection pattern will result in temperatures gradually warming from the lower 80s Friday to the middle and upper 80s by Sunday. Lows will be in the middle to upper 60s across the area through the period except upper 50s Friday night in the extreme east. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Low level warm advection across the east may bring MVFR/IFR conditions to eastern OH into NW PA through mid morning. This will mainly impact KYNG into inland NW PA. Some patchy MVFR/IFR ground fog will be possible around sunrise but will likely miss most TAF sites. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move into NW OH by 18Z. MVFR and brief IFR conditions will be associated with the heaviest showers/thunderstorms. Wind will be light through sunrise then increase to around 10 knots from the southwest this afternoon. Winds will shift to the NW and N after 06Z as a cold front moves from west to east overnight. Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms that move west to east across the area on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Winds on the lake will be gradually diminishing today through Tuesday morning as the low pressure system that affected the area yesterday continues to move northeast of the area. Another weak wave of low pressure will move through the region today. There is the possibility with the showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday morning for waterspouts and cooler air over the lake increases instability. Winds will be diminishing to light and variable through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. This overall trend will continue into Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/MM SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...MM MARINE...Lombardy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.