Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250129 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 929 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes tonight into New England on Sunday. A trough will move northeast through the Ohio valley late Sunday into Monday. A stationary boundary will set up just south of the area early next week before high pressure builds across the region by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cloudy skies continue to linger across much of the area, although NW Ohio has cleared out for the time being, allowing temperatures to quickly drop over the area into the upper 30s. Light winds around 5 knots are beginning to shift and become northeasterly as the ridge continues to push eastward over the area. Weak instability across the lake, coupled with the wind direction, should give way to light lake effect rain showers along the western lakeshore of Lake Erie through the overnight hours. Opted to continue the chance PoPs with reports of patches of steady rain with onshore bands earlier. However, agree with earlier discussion that this may be overdoing it. A band of clouds will develop with these showers, again making NW Ohio cloudy. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30s in the northeast to the upper 30s to low 40s out west. The remainder of the discussion for Sunday remains on track and unchanged. Any lake induced light precip/clouds will weaken/scatter through the day on Sunday as the ridge moves into New England. Precip chances will increase late in the day into Sunday night as an inverted trough builds northeast through the upper Ohio valley into the far eastern part of the area. This, in combination with a tightening baroclinic zone and a vorticity stream moving northeast along this boundary, will see an increase in cloud cover and light precip chances through the night, with the highest pops across the eastern part of the area. Highs on Sunday will be a bit warmer, with low 50s expected. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s across NW PA to the low/mid 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An inverted trough over the region on Monday will allow for showers to be possible over the eastern half of the forecast area to start on Monday as a small vorticity maximum ripple through aloft. Rain chances will decrease through the day as this feature exits the region. The surface boundary will stall over the area for much of the short term forecast period and be the focus for additional rain development for Monday night into Tuesday as moisture advects back into the region and another ripple of energy aloft will support rain development. Will maintain higher PoPs across the area for the Monday night period. Rain will taper off on Tuesday as the boundary drifts south and moisture cuts off into the region but will maintain chance PoPs while the boundary is still in the vicinity. Temperatures through the period appear to remain on the cooler side of normal; however, the range of temperatures between the GFS and ECMWF solutions is large and will maintain temperatures near 50s for highs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The forecast area will find itself between systems on Wednesday with mostly dry air and weak high pressure building into the area. Will maintain a dry forecast with cooler than normal temperatures at this time. An upper trough over the southern plains will advance east on Thursday and support low pressure through the southern CONUS. Placement and timing of the low is still uncertain as this system will likely absorb a tropical feature from the Gulf of Mexico. With that, will maintain some form of PoPs on Thursday into Friday with the forecast area remaining on the cool side of this system. A strong ridge and surface high pressure will build in for the weekend, but this will come with cooler than normal temperatures for the Halloween holiday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Much of the low cloud decks have begun to erode as the ridge continues to build over the area, giving way to primarily VFR conditions across the area. KMFD and KYNG still have ceiling bouncing between MVFR and VFR which is expected through 03Z. Winds are expected to shift from north to northeasterly and remain at 5 to knots through the period. Light lake effect showers may impact KTOL and KCLE periodically throughout the overnight hours, however confidence in timing and duration are not high so opted to keep it out of the TAFs. All sites should improve to VFR conditions for the duration of the forecast period, however remain cloudy as the next low pressure system approaches the area toward the end of the period. Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of SHRA Sunday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... A ridge will continue to enter the Great Lakes region tonight and allow for winds to become more northeasterly over the lake. As this feature increases in strength over the lake, winds will increase on Sunday with winds to 20 knots over the central portions of the lake. An unfavorable northeast fetch could allow for some higher waves in the central and western basin, but for now should remain below small craft criteria. A trough will sneak in from the south Sunday night and winds will become more easterly over the lake, offshore in some areas, and waves will be less problematic for the nearshore waters. A cold front will sweep across the lake on Monday and winds will shifts around to the north across the basin. The front will stall over the Ohio Valley and north flow should continue over the lake. High pressure will attempt to build in midweek and westerly winds will be favored, no higher than 15 knots at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Campbell/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Griffin/Sefcovic is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.