Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140910 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 510 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slide east across the region today with nothing more than some clouds, and perhaps a few sprinkles across the Northern Mountains of the state. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue across the region through Tuesday. A strong frontal system will bring a period of rain to the area on Wednesday, followed by cooler and blustery weather to end the work week. The early outlook for the upcoming weekend looks dry with temperatures moderating to near, or several degrees above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Deck of stratus and stratocu clouds over our far eastern zones (caused by a light llvl easterly flow and much higher sfc dewpoints in the low-mid 50s ahead of a weak wave of low pressure) continues to drift slowly to the east early this morning. Weak surface ridging over Central PA was providing mainly clear skies and light wind with patchy fog in the deeper valleys containing larger streams and rivers. A weak cold front was slipping into far NW PA attm, accompanied by variable amounts of mainly altocu clouds and nothing more than some sprinkles from these mid level bases with a deep layer of dry air below. Varying amounts of the altocu clouds will drift across mainly northern and western PA today, prior to an expanding area of bkn-ovc strato cu over the Alleghenies of northern and western PA beginning 13-15Z Invof KBFD, and reaching the Laurels and North-Central Mtns around 17-18Z. Temps today will only reach the Low 50s across the NW mtns, but will peak several deg F above normal - around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A well-aligned westerly low-level flow off Lake Erie and inland speed convergence/orographic lift will help to produce/maintain an overcast deck of warm, strato cu clouds 2-3 kft thick that will eventually spread SE into the Central Mtns and at times, even the Mid and Lower Susq Valley late today and this evening. A light westerly breeze and some strato cu cloud cover early on, and across the north, will lead to chilly overnight mins, but nothing too drastic with respect to frost conditions where the growing season is still intact throughout much of the SE half of PA. Min temps at around daybreak tuesday will range from the low-mid 30s across the NW Mtns, to the L40s in the southeast. Tuesday looks to be fair and mild with a light to moderate southerly breeze and sct-ocnly bkn clouds mainly in the form of alto cu AOA 13 KFT AGL. Temps Tuesday will rebound into the upper 50s for a max across the north, and reach an afternoon high in the 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An approaching cold front and thin ribbon of near 1 inch PWATs will bring a rapid increase in clouds and POPS Tuesday night into Wednesday with the main impacts in the form or rain showers for the region on Wednesday. Showers will move east of the area on Wednesday night with cooler and blustery conditions on Thursday. As is typical from here going forward, there will be some showers across the northern tier and higher elevations. After a couple cool days, temperatures will moderate significantly on Saturday. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At 09z, patchy fog is forming across central PA. KIPT has seen it`s cig and vsby drop to VLIFR, as fog fills the West Branch Susq Valley. A bank of very low clouds/fog has formed over southern York County, and this may expand into the vicinity of KLNS and KMDT before daybreak. Any low cigs/fog will mix out between 12z and 14z, leaving widespread VFR conds for the remainder of today over most of central PA. However, can`t rule out tempo MVFR cigs across the northwest mountains (KBFD) associated with moisture flowing off of Lake Erie. Looking at the week ahead, patchy fog is once again possible late Monday night into early Tuesday. There is a good chance for reductions in clouds and rain on Wednesday, and lingering MVFR conds are possible into Thursday as chilly and breezy NW flow develops behind a departing cold front. .Outlook... Tue...AM valley fog likely across N PA. Wed...Rain/low cigs likely. Thu...Gusty WNW winds; lingering MVFR poss mainly N/W. Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Ross/Lambert/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Ross/Lambert LONG TERM...Ross/Lambert AVIATION...Evanego

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