Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240348 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1148 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push eastward across the Commonwealth later tonight, accompanied by a few light showers. Behind the front, cooler, more seasonable temperatures will be with us this weekend, along with mostly rain free weather. Conditions will likely turn unsettled again early next week, with periods of rain possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and a few rumbles moving thru the NW right on time. Low clouds behaving themselves in the east, not creeping too far to the west at this point. Temps are very mild, esp for almost midnight! Currently, we`re 3-8F warmer than normal maxes for the day. The real front does look like it is now through CLE and CMH, almost to ERI. All is mainly on track for the rest of the night. Showers should lose any thunder shortly as they move into more-stable air. Temps should stay mild in the SE, but fall hard over the NW in just a few hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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1130 pm update... Main change was to add to the PoPs over the srn tier for Sunday as most models now generate some precip to the NW of a wave which looks like it will move up the east coast. 310 pm update... The above mentioned cold front should be east of our forecast area by mid to late morning Saturday. In its wake, cooler and generally drier air will gradually filter in from the northwest. Although some post-frontal lower clouds are expected to linger for a time Saturday morning in the Alleghenies and portions of the northern tier, most areas should see a trend towards partly-mostly sunny skies by midday-early afternoon. Afternoon highs will be cooler than recent days, particularly over the northern mountains, with highs ranging from the lower 50s in these areas, to the upper 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Saturday night looks mostly clear and colder, with perhaps some mid to higher-level cloudiness edging into our southern tier counties towards daybreak. Overnight lows will range from around 30 in the northern mountains, to close to 40 in the Susquehanna Valley. Sunday will be a seasonably chilly day, with sunshine fading behind thickening clouds from south to north. Most model solutions are suggesting that an area of light rain over the mid-Atlantic will stay south of the Commonwealth, so we`ve gone ahead and kept the forecast dry for now. Sunday`s highs should range from the upper 40s-mid 50s. Sunday night, we`ll likely see showers on the increase, particularly up over the northern tier, closer to the best warm advection forcing, ahead of a Great Lakes frontal complex. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s over the northern mountains, to the mid 40s in the Susquehanna Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Active weather pattern for the long term with general troughiness to our west at first, then heights rise. A complicated/wavy front moves across the state Mon into Tuesday. Timing of the waves along the front preclude making much more than a broad bell curve around Monday night. Looks pretty cold for mid week with a sfc high overhead. After a brief recovery to near normality (for 2020), a true Canadian airmass moves down for later in the week. It may not have enough punch to completely move through, though, given the minor rise in upper heights. Still, it is worth knocking the temps down a little from Thursday into Friday. There are a few times in the long term when temps get cool enough to perhaps make any showers mix with snow in the higher elevations of the north. It is October.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not a lot of change for the 00Z TAFS. Best support for showers lifting north of the area overnight. Dewpoints high for late October, but not really higher than yesterday or earlier today. Thus expect best chance of showers overnight and early Saturday will be across the far west. This area will have the highest chance of lower CIGS etc. I slowed down the gusty winds for the east on Saturday by a few hours. While a wind shift may occur earlier, the winds take some time to pick up, as the cooler airmass really is not real deep. Earlier discussion below. During the pre-dawn hours, as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest, lower conditions (including some light rain showers) will first spread into KBFD and KJST (05-07z), before reaching KAOO and KUNV by 08-09z. The best potential for IFR ceiling bases will be at KBFD and KJST, with fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions more likely at KAOO/KUNV. While unrestricted conditions are anticipated for much of the night at KIPT, KMDT, and KLNS, some lower clouds and fog may develop near sunrise (after 09-10z), with a brief period of IFR possible. Saturday, as the aforementioned cold front moves to the east of our terminal sites, any early morning lower clouds should have a tendency to dissipate, with VFR again becoming dominant by 13-15z. Lower clouds may hang on a bit longer at KBFD/KJST, owing to upslope conditions and lake enhancement, within a low- level NW flow regime. Locally gusty S-SW winds may diminish at times tonight, before turning gusty again out of the NW post-frontal passage on Saturday. Outlook... Sun...VFR. Sun night-Tue...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and and periodic light rain. Wed...Mostly VFR. && .CLIMATE... Altoona set a record high temperature of 78F today, breaking the old record of 75F set in 1975. Bradford set a record high temperature of 78F today, breaking the old record of 75F set in 1975. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Jurewicz LONG TERM...Dangelo/Travis/Gutierrez AVIATION...Jurewicz/Martin CLIMATE...

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