Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300912 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 512 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air is moving into the area. An upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes will produce lots of clouds and isolated to scattered light showers over much of the area Monday. Cooler, but rather normal temperatures are expected for the rest of the week. An inverted trough will linger overhead through Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, and may allow a few light showers through then. It then looks dry until the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... Areas of dense fog persist over the South Central Mountains and Middle Susq. early this morning. Drier air is nearby, but it will take some time to scour out and may expand into the Lower Susq. before it does so. Dense fog advy remains in effect thru 9 AM for the aforementioned areas. Low clouds will hang tough through mid morning while the fog starts to lift. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds from the NW continue to advance southward as the upper low reaches our longitude and spins a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum right over our heads in the morning. Thus, will make the showers most numerous in the morning, and have even brought slight chc PoPs to the Turnpike. But, anything reaching that far south should barely wet the ground. Maxes will be tricky over the SE. If they clear out and finally get the wind to come out of the west, they should mix up to 5kft and tap the potential temps up there. Will continue with maxes around 43F in BFD and 60f in LNS/THV. Clouds stay in place for the night and Tuesday AM lows will be just above freezing NW and closer to 40F SE. It does get cold enough in the cloud layer to make mainly snow across the north, but the cloud insulation should keep the ground temps and sfc/air temps above freezing. So, while the sct showers may be mainly snow later Mon night, accums should be just a dusting at most by morning, mainly on the high ground. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Despite the upper low sliding off the MA coast on Tues, it manages to keep a sliver of itself back into NY/PA. There should also be a sfc reflection/inverted trough poking into the CWA into Wednesday morning. After a dry start to the day on Tues, the influence of the synoptic pattern will bring some showers back into the picture. Later Tuesday, the mainly isolated or, at worst, scattered showers will probably back in from the NE. As a larger storm rolls thru the Carolinas and srn VA, the inverted trough poke in more from the S than the E. This at least makes for a pretty cloudy forecast thru the first half of Wed. As the storm to our south goes off shore, we should see a great improvement, and dry weather will last thru the weekend. Temps thru the period will be close to normal for maxes and maybe a little milder than normal for mins, with the coolest readings overall in the middle of the week. Maxes go back into the m50s-l60s by the weekend. Narrow but slow moving N-S ridge of high pressure will keep it dry between late Wed and at least Sat. Chance PoPs (30+) only sneak back in on Sunday as a cold front will little moisture/potency slides in from the west. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Areas of locally dense fog continue across the eastern half of the CWA, leading to IFR Vsbys and Cigs. The fog should mix out shortly after sunrise leading to VFR for much of the day across the southeast. Clouds and showers are moving into the northwest and should expand eastward as the morning progresses. Lower Cigs are possible for KBFD and KJST, but Cigs should remain VFR at KAOO, KUNV and KIPT. .Outlook... Tuesday...Mostly sunny, VFR Cigs and vsbys. Tuesday night Wednesday...Thickening clouds and rain, possibly mixed with wet snow across the higher terrain. Thursday...Improving conditions in northwest flow. Friday...Chance of a shower across the northwest, otherwise dry. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ012-019- 026>028-035-036-041-042-045-046-049>053. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...Martin/Travis

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