Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 042058 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 458 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A spectacular Independence Day in progress across Central PA with abundant sunshine, light wind and comfortable humidity. Expect good viewing conditions for fireworks tonight before clouds increase downstream of MCS activity over the Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday afternoon/evening with unsettled conditions into late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Fair and seasonable weather for July 4th expected this evening into tonight with good viewing conditions for fireworks. Clouds will increase late tonight into early Tuesday morning downstream of MCS activity over the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley. Low POPs across the NW periphery of the CWA still look good based on the latest hires guidance. A gradual uptick in humidity is expected overnight with minTs in the 60s trending +5 to +20F warmer than last night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Still lots of questions marks surrounding severe potential on Tuesday. This is partly due to expected areas of upstream convection and associated cloud cover in the morning. The latest HREF as well as individual CAMs are fairly clustered around the idea of increasing coverage/intensity of storms moving west to east through the CWA in the 15Z Tue to 03Z Wed timeframe. Moderate CAPE and shear profiles would support organized clusters/bowing segments with potential for swaths of strong wind gusts by late afternoon/evening. Low level shear maximized near warm/quasi stationary frontal boundary pivoting across the region could potentially support a more robust tornado threat. So overall the convective environment appears to be rather volatile, but it`s unclear how storms will evolve. SPC did not change the SLGT outlook for tomorrow with the 1730Z D2 update. Some hires guidance is signaling redevelopment of storms from the Upper Ohio Valley into southwest PA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning - this looks more like a heavy rainfall threat. Model guidance shows an active convective corridor extending from the High Plains east southeast through the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians through midweek. This area is located on the periphery of mid/upper level ridge where PWs are forecast to be well above normal for early July. The southern tier CPA is most likely to see a couple rounds of storms with plenty of moisture+instability combining to support risk of strong gusty winds and heavy rain rates. Always tough to pin down details this far out in a summer pattern, so forecast adjustments are likely in the coming days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis stays west through the extended, with the CWA in a weak NW flow much of the time. This will keep temperatures from getting too hot, with warm days and seasonal nights. Will have to watch upstream to monitor for any MCS development. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions with light winds will continue into the first part of Tuesday. Low level moisture really takes some time to get into the area on Tuesday, so showers and storm potential is likely to be higher later in the afternoon into the evening, once we are in the warmer and more humid air. Some storms could be on the strong to severe side, if we get into the higher dewpoint air. For now went with VCSH later Tuesday. I did go VCTS late for JST, as JST will be close to the cold front by then. Outlook... Wed-Sat...Chance of SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Ross/Tyburski AVIATION...Martin

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