220
FXUS63 KDDC 181016
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
416 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dramatically colder today with some light snow

- Continued cold with low chills, worst Tuesday morning

- Moderating temperatures by midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Strong cold air advection will prevail today across the FA. 850 hPa
temperatures are expected to decrease down to -8C to -14C throughout
the day. This supports highs only in the mid 20s for the FA. North
winds 15 to 30 mph in combination with the cold highs will result
in wind chills in the single digits this afternoon. In addition,
a weak ul trof moving through will lead to some light snowfall across
a portion of the FA today. Have expanded the slight pops farther
east to include Dodge City and have gone far SE as Medicine Lodge
and along the Oklahoma border to account for the possibility of light
snow and/or flurries. The highest pops and the highest snow amounts
will be kept along and west of Highway 83. Snow amounts here should
be an inch or less. Nowhere close to have any winter weather headlines
for such a light snow event. All in all... it will be a rather raw
day with cold highs, brisk northerly winds, clouds, and some light
snow. The strong Arctic high pressure center will firmly be in control
through the rest of the weekend. Lows tonight will be cold with values
bottoming out in the single positive digits. Wind chills Sunday morning
look to bottom out in the 0F to -8F range. Highs Sunday will only
peak in the upper teens to mid 20s. Continued strong cold air advection
will prevail on Monday with 850 hPa temperatures in the -15C to -20C
range. Highs only peaking in the teens to lower 20s. The coldest
morning period is expected Tuesday. Wind chills 10 to 20 below looks
likely for the FA and an eventual headline related to this will likely
be needed at some point. A weak system moving through the greater
region Monday may bring a second wave of light snow. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, downslope flow develops off the Rockies. This will help
to dislodge the cold air with moderating temperatures as we continue
through the middle portion of the business week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

VFR is expected through much of the pd. The main exception to this
is some light snow showers and related MVFR to low VFR cigs and possibly
lower vis may spread in across KGCK and KLBL terminals later today.
Otherwise, N winds 10-25 kt will continue through much of the
day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden