532
FXUS63 KDDC 090639
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
139 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings "cooler" temperatures across the forecast
  area today and tomorrow; temperatures only slightly above
  normal today and about normal Thursday

- Thunderstorm chances on the increase with minimal severe
  weather potential this afternoon and into tonight; strong
  winds and heavy rainfall the main expected hazards

- Temperatures largely stay at bay with some precipitation
  chances into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

06z surface analysis depicts a cold front moving southeastward
across the forecast area early this morning. This feature is a
much welcoming change to the relentless heat the area has been
experiencing as of late. While temperatures will be still
slightly above average for the beginning of September, most
areas will remain in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s. Depending on
exactly the placement of the front through the afternoon, 100 is
still possible in south-central Kansas. While low-level
moisture will still be elevated, the lower temperatures should
keep us from reaching widespread Heat Advisory heat index
criteria. Thursday will be the day that will feel noticeably
better than recent days. High temperatures across the entire
forecast area are expected to remain in the 80s. It may feel
slightly hotter with dew points remaining elevated once again,
but any max heat indices are expected to only perhaps touch the
low 90s.

Widespread thunderstorm chances will increase late this
afternoon, this evening, and tonight across a large part of the
forecast area. The aforementioned cold front will stall along
or near the KS/OK border. Given abundant low-level moisture on
the north and south side of the boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Early in the event (during the late
afternoon and early evening), an isolated severe weather risk
may materialize. With a deep mixing temperature and dew point
profile, leading to steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPEs
around 1200-1500 J/kg, some strong downburst potential does
exist. However, given weak mid-level flow, only a few loosely
organized multi-cell clusters are probable. So overall severe
weather potential will be minimal, as a Marginal Risk is in
place to reflect this potential. As more widespread storms
develop into the evening and overnight hours, the hazard will
transition into more of a heavy rainfall risk. Latest NBM
probabilities of widespread 0.25" or greater is 30-60%, mainly
along and south of Route 50 corridor. However, latest CAMs have
begun to pick up on the potential for some training of
thunderstorms during the evening and into the overnight hours,
with very localized 1-2"+ totals a possibility. Again, similar
to the severe risk, any hydro issues will be limited and not
widespread. However, a few areas may experience at least some
nuisance flooding.

Looking into this weekend and beyond, the ridge that has had a
grip on the area as broken down and more troughs are expected to
sweep into the Plains. With the exception of a day or two
thrown in with hotter temperatures, temperatures will largely be
kept at bay. MaxT forecast stay in the 80s and 90s through
weekend and into next week. With these approaching troughs, some
POPs (20-40%) are in the forecast early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are developing along and behind a cold
front to start the period that is moving slowly southeastward
across the area. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity, but some lightning is ongoing. Rain and thunderstorms
will diminish into Wednesday morning, with north and
northeasterly winds behind the front throughout the TAF period.
Lift and easterly upslope behind the aforementioned cold front
is expected to result in thunderstorm development after 00z
Thursday across the area. Localized severe storms will be
possible with strong winds. Small thunderstorm chances will be
mentioned to reflect this possibility.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett