Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261035
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Precip chances return to portions of western Kansas this evening as
a series of H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies into
the Western High Plains within a relatively weak westerly flow.
Although model soundings indicate favorable vertical shear profiles
along with steep low/mid level lapse rates, a slow moisture return
will limit instability with CAPE values generally only up to around
500 J/kg or so. As a result, showers and few isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop in vicinity of a deepening surface trough in
eastern Colorado late this afternoon as capping erodes, then
potentially drifting eastward into extreme western Kansas this
evening. Although the lack of instability will hinder the severe
threat for the most part, any showers/storms are likely to be higher
based suggesting the possibility for stronger winds associated with
any induced outflow.

As for temperatures today, a strong southerly flow will develop in
response to a deepening surface trough in eastern Colorado, in turn
drawing warmer air up into the region. Look for widespread 70s(F)
for highs in central Kansas this afternoon with temperatures possibly
pushing the lower 80s(F) in portions of southwest Kansas. An advancing
trough axis will bring about a southwest to westerly downslope flow
across much of western Kansas tonight resulting in milder temperatures.
Look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across much of southwest and
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

While drier conditions are likely across much of western Kansas
Saturday as a dry air mass spreads southward into the area in wake
of a cold frontal passage early in the day, precip chances return
late Sunday as medium range models show an upper level trough
transitioning eastward out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
night in association with a frontal boundary projected to push
through western/central Kansas. After a break to the more active
pattern during the day Monday, precip chances pick back up Monday
night into Tuesday as an easterly upslope flow sets up across
southwest/central Kansas ahead of an approaching upper level
shortwave trough moving ashore off the Pacific into the Desert
Southwest.

A drop in high temperatures is likely Saturday as cooler air filters
into western Kansas in wake of the aforementioned frontal passage
Saturday morning. Expect highs only up into the lower/mid 70s(F)
Saturday afternoon. Medium range models continue to indicate a more
significant surge of cooler air arriving in the Central and Western
High Plains early next week, pulling temperatures well below normal.
Will need to keep an eye on how low temperatures get Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
late this evening. Light and variable winds early this morning will
turn southerly around 15 to 25kt generally after 14Z as a lee side
trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Southerly
winds will then increase through this afternoon with wind gusts
upward of 35 to 40kt as the trough axis strengthens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

A developing lee side trough of low pressure early this morning
will strengthen across eastern Colorado through this afternoon
resulting in gusty south winds across western Kansas. Combined
with lower relative humidity values, this will create an elevated
fire risk across much of southwest Kansas today. Similar conditions
are likely Saturday as strong gusty north winds develop behind a
cold front pushing through western Kansas early to mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  55  74  40 /   0  30   0  10
GCK  78  52  72  41 /  10  30   0   0
EHA  80  54  74  46 /  10  30  10  20
LBL  78  54  75  43 /  10  30   0  20
HYS  77  54  70  37 /   0  20   0  10
P28  75  54  77  42 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson


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