000
FXUS63 KDDC 051026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

...Updated aviation section...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions through at least Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front will move through the area Thursday night.

- A disturbance will move through the area this weekend and could
  bring precipitation to western Kansas Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected throughout the
short term period as ridging builds over the Rockies suppressing any
activity from forming. A weak lee trough will develop across eastern
Colorado today and continue into tomorrow.  This will shift
northwest winds this morning to the southwest this afternoon. South
to southwest winds continue tonight through Wednesday.  As for
temperatures, highs today look to range from the upper 50s across
central Kansas to low 60s across far western Kansas. There is a 30
to 60 percent chance of highs above 60 across far western Kansas
this afternoon. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 20s to low 30s.
Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs
reaching into the upper 60s. There is a 20-40 percent chance of
highs exceeding 70 across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Upper level ridging slides over the Plains Thursday.  This will lead
to continued mostly clear skies and dry conditions across the
Plains. Temperatures during this period will be above normal with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Currently, ensemble models show a
20-50 percent chance of the temperatures at or above 70 degrees
across far southwestern Kansas Thursday afternoon.

Ensemble models then suggest a strong upper level disturbance moving
though the Northwest United States and into the area by this
weekend. This will help push a cold front through the area Thursday
night. The last few model runs have shown a decrease in
precipitation chances as this system moves through the area. I still
believe that somewhere in our forecast area will receive
measurable precipitation. This system will need to be watched over
the next several runs to figure out what area may receive the
best chance of precipitation with this system. Ensemble models are
in good agreement for temperatures to decrease during this time
frame with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Friday and upper 40s
to low 50s on Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 425 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will start out from the northwest this morning, shifting to the
southwest this afternoon. Wind speeds should be less than 10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  58  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  34  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  29  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  31  63  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42