Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KEAX 022306
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 402 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2022

Key Messages:

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible this evening
  for portions of eastern Kansas and south of Interstate 70. Greatest
  threat for strong to severe storms will be across southern
  Missouri.

- Hot and humid weather returns Monday through Wednesday with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across much of the area.

Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms have generally moved out of the forecast
area as of early this afternoon with the MCV and related showers
having moved into eastern Missouri. The front has pushed south
and extends across far southern Missouri westward to along the
KS/OK border. Along this baroclinic zone is where the best chance
will be to see strong to severe thunderstorms. Further north, we
may have some development, but unless we see more clearing of
clouds in the next hour or two, overall chances are slim that much
will develop in the way of strong storms this afternoon/evening.
The one area to keep an eye on for this afternoon and evening
would be across north-central to northeast Kansas where another
weak shortwave trough could trigger another round of showers and
storms. CAMs have picked up on this scenario and have convection
following along the CAPE gradient southward into southwest
Kansas. If this plays out, storms could impact far eastern Kansas,
including the west side of the KC metro this evening. As such,
have been keeping an eye on the cu field this afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop again tonight
across portions of the forecast area as the nocturnal jet noses into
the region once again. Showers will linger into Sunday morning but
then clear out making for a decent day for any outdoor holiday
activities.

An upper ridge will build back over the central conus Sunday with
southerly surface flow reestablishing. Strong warm air advection
will warm temperatures back into the lower to mid 90s Monday
afternoon with heat indices between about 100 to 105. The only
caveat continues to be the progged MCS that will move through
Nebraska and into Iowa, and possibly northern Missouri, Monday
morning. While the southern CWA counties will still see hot
temperatures and heat indices, the northern counties may be several
degrees cooler due to remnant cloud cover from the MCS.
Unfortunately, while consistent with developing the MCS, models
still waver in the track. Regardless, caution should be taken to
prevent heat related illnesses for any 4th of July events and
activities.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as the ridge axis
moves over us. In addition, southerly flow combined with recent
rainfall and the corn starting to tassel will allow for very warm
dewpoints as well. Most areas should see heat index values above 100
degrees with many areas seeing values above 105. Wednesday will also
be hot for areas south of I-70, but a cold front nearing the
forecast area makes it a little more uncertain for areas north of
the Interstate. The remainder of the workweek shows the upper ridge
remaining over the central US with several waves bringing chances
for precipitation.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2022

Outside of scattered showers around terminal space over the next 1-2
hours, dry weather should generally prevail through the period with
VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PietrychaP
Aviation...Blair


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.