581
FXUS63 KEAX 262303
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for scattered storms possible today through the
  weekend. Severe weather not expected however, a few strong storms
  are possible.

- Heat indices exceeding triple digits are expected for the
  start of next week through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

In the upper levels, a broad ridge dominates north central
CONUS, with an upper level trough over south central CONUS. Upstream
of the ridging, is another trough moving into central Canada. At the
surface, there is a high to the northeast over the Great Lakes
region and a low over SD. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the area this evening with low level convergence
between the two surface features. No severe weather is expected at
this time, however a few storms could produce strong conditions.
CAPE values ranging from 1,000-2,000 J/kg and 70 degree dew points
suggest a decent amount of instability and moisture for the area,
but shear is almost non-existent. If storms are able to develop they
are expected to be fairly short-lived with the main threat being
strong winds and small hail. PWATs above 1.25 inches also suggest a
potential for short bursts of heavy rainfall.

Through the weekend, a 500MB low becomes more defined as a result of
the upper level low over south central CONUS. This 500MB low is
expected to move further north passing along the MO/IL border. As a
result, there may be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. At this time, no severe is expected, but best
chances seem to be on Sunday afternoon/evening as CAPE values remain
around 1,000-2,000 J/kg and shear values increase to around 30-40
knots as stronger winds move in on the backside of the the upper
low. The main threats at this time seem to be strong to damaging
winds and hail.

Early Sunday morning, another surface low develops in western KS
shifting our winds firmly to the south. In addition, a strong 850MB
thermal ridge develops to our west. By Monday, the thermal ridge is
expected to move into our area. As a result, heat indices are
forecasted to range from 100-110 degrees F. The thermal ridge over
the next few days seems to stagnate and remain over the area
providing a stretch of unpleasant heat. Next Tuesday and Wednesday
are expected to be the most intense with heat indices getting as
high 112 degrees F. We will continue to monitor conditions closely
to determine whether or not heat headlines will be necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Diurnal cu persists at all terminals, with south/southeasterly
winds around 5-10 knots that will persist for the forecast
period. Current rain showers remain out east and the formation
of SH/TS at all terminals is not favored, so keeping any
mentions of prevailing wx out of the near term. Some guidance
suggests the introduction of cloud ceilings lowering to MVFR
(1500-3000 ft) by the early afternoon tomorrow. However, most
guidance is favoring ceilings to remain above MVFR, so including
a BKN050 layer at all terminals to account for this
possibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...SPG/CDB