Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 091035 CCA

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

Issued at 358 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021

Key Points:

-Active weather pattern with variety of weather types the next
several days.  Warm and windy conditions expected today and
tomorrow. Thereafter, a strong cold front moves through the region
Wednesday night with much cooler conditions behind the front. With
the passage of the front, there is the potential for a few strong
storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Additional chances of
precipitation continue through the weekend into early next week.

Detailed discussion...

Stout southerly flow across the central US will lead to increasing
moisture advection through the day today. This will keep the fire
weather concerns from reaching the critical level, but still
expected very high grassland fire danger with southerly winds
gusting to near 30 knots this afternoon. The strong southerly flow
should aid in mixing, leading to the warmest day of 2021 across the
region.  With the increasing moisture, will likely see a thin
stratocumulus field develop through the afternoon hours. Could
temporarily see some breaks in the cloud cover this evening, but
with strong moisture advection continuing tonight, expect stratus to
develop through the overnight.  With the strong low level theta-e
advection, associated lift may be enough to lead to the development
of drizzle or weak shower activity.

By Wednesday morning, the stratus appears to be fairly thick, with
strong capping inversion near 820 mb.  With the stratus around,
expect the warming to be more driven by warm air advection and
compressional warming ahead of approaching cold front from the
northwest.  Very strong winds are expected on Wednesday, with 925
hpa winds of 40-45 knots.  Have increased winds on Wednesday to just
shy of wind advisory levels, but clouds along with strength of the
warm air advection will likely ultimately decide whether wind
advisory is needed.

Models hint at the stratus thinning Wednesday afternoon ahead of the
front across northwestern Missouri, and will need to keep a close
eye on this potential.  If clearing develops, this could allow for
additional low level warming potentially leading to more
instability. As of right now, looks like a small ribbon of ~250 J/kg
of CAPE develops with little cap lifting from near 850 mb.  Very
strongly sheared environment mainly due to speed shear creates 40-50
knots of 1-6 km bulk shear.  With meager instability and strong
shear, could be tough to sustain updrafts initially, but as strong
shortwave approaches from the west, instability becomes a bit more
robust with steepening lapse rates from 850-700 mb.  Therefore,
could see a few stronger storms develop through the evening hours in
the vicinity of the front.  With the precipitable water values
elevated between ~0.75-1", expect storms to be heavy rainers but
could see a few stronger storms produce small hail.

Cooler conditions are expected Thursday into the weekend. Large
upper trough, which builds south through the week along the west
coast, is then expected to be located across the southwestern US,
and slowly works east through the weekend.  Isentropic lift ahead of
the upper low could lead to additional precipitation through the
weekend into the beginning of next week.  With the cooler
temperatures, could see rain mix with and turn to snow across
northern Missouri, but am not expecting accumulations at this time.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST MON MAR 8 2021

VFR at all terminals with southerly winds around 10 knots. A south
southwesterly oriented low level jet is beginning to ramp up now
and will create some low level wind shear concerns through around
15z Tuesday morning. After the low level jet subsides, surface
winds will pick up again beginning around 15z Tuesday with
sustained winds in the 15 to 20 knot range and gusts ranging from
25 to 30 knots. These winds will continue through the afternoon
and evening hours and will likely persist even into overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period with MVFR ceilings likely setting in
early Wednesday morning just beyond the current TAF period.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 358 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021

Strong southerly winds are expected both today and Wednesday. With
strong moisture return today, the relatively humidity values are
only expected to fall to 40-45 percent this afternoon.  Winds are
expected to remain brisk through the overnight hours tonight, and
becoming increasingly gusty on Wednesday during the day gusting to
near 35-40 knots. Low lying stratus that is expected to develop
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may lead to light
rainfall/drizzle, though the precipitation is not expected to amount
to more than a few hundredths of an inch till Wednesday evening. The
strong winds both days will lead to a high-very high fire danger.




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