Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 271725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1125 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 AM CST MON JAN 27 2020

Areas of dense freezing fog will continue to reduce visibilities to
a quarter mile or less at times, in addition to producing a glaze of
ice on roadways, particularly elevated surfaces. Latest obs depict
a broad spectrum of visibility, though numerous sites have held
steady with quarter mile visibility. Visibility may come and go at
times, though overall expecting to see impacts continue through
the mid-morning. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for most
areas until 10 am. Surface temperatures will warm sufficiently to
evaporate fog by the late morning and afternoon, though model
soundings indicate low-level moisture profiles at around 950 hPa
deepening to roughly 850 hPa this afternoon. Current satellite
imagery depicts this expansive stratus layer and fog enveloping
the northern half of Missouri, though clear conditions are nearby
across the southern half of Missouri. Thus the southern counties
may see pockets of sun this afternoon, but otherwise, the
deepening low-level moisture within the current stratus layer
will equate to another day of overcast skies.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough across the Northern
Plains will step into phase with a more pronounced shortwave to the
south, and will collectively serve as the next chance for precip,
locally. Previous model runs maintained most of the activity to the
south of the forecast area, but there are now some indications that
two areas of precip will merge across the forecast area Tuesday
through Wednesday. Southern precip will occur within the deformation
zone of a surface low progged to move across eastern Oklahoma
through central Arkansas, while precip to the north will initiate
in the mid-levels as the northern shortwave pushes through the
region. Precip type early in the event on Tuesday will be somewhat
uncertain as model soundings do paint a warm nose between 800 hPa
to 850 hPa, Tuesday morning. However, a fairly stout dry sub-cloud
layer is also depicted between roughly 700 hPa to 900 hPa. Thus,
evaporative cooling may be able to erode the shallow warm nose
early on, which would produce mostly snow from the onset of the
event. The column will continue to cool with time, maintaining
snow production through Wednesday. Moisture will be the limiting
factor, however, as the bulk of that looks to remain south. All
said, there is increasing potential for minor snow accumulations
beginning Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Current
forecast snow totals will approach or slightly exceed one inch
for areas south of Highway 50, and will range from a dusting to
roughly half an inch for areas north of 50. Will monitor the track
of the surface low to the south and moisture availability, which
could promote higher snow totals going forward.

Next chance for precip may arrive on Friday, though models are in
disagreement with overall moisture availability and progged precip
placement, locally. Otherwise, temps will take an upward swing by
the late weekend, currently looking to rise into the upper 40s to
even mid 50s by Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST MON JAN 27 2020

MVFR cigs will be persistent thru much of the TAF pd. Tonight, fog
is expected to develop aft 01Z with MVFR vis affecting the
terminals as well. Tomorrow morning btn 12Z-16Z IFR cig/vis will
be poss before improving back to MVFR by 16Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...73


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