Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2021

Key Message:

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday with strong to
severe storms possible.

Breezy south-southwesterly winds will help to advect low-level
moisture northward as the Gulf opens back up in response to surface
high shifting to the eastern seaboard and falling heights over the
Northern and Central High Plains. Temperatures will be several
degrees warmer today over yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s.

Focus remains on the potential for strong to severe storms overnight
tonight into Thursday morning with another round possible during
the afternoon and evening hours. Models have been fairly
consistent with storms developing in western and/or central
Nebraska this evening and quickly growing upscale as they traverse
eastward across Nebraska. These storms will quickly merge into a
MCS which then rides the mid/upper ridge southeastward down into
Missouri by early Thursday morning. The MCS should be weakening as
it moves into northern Missouri, but could still see some strong
winds and heavy rainfall. This MCS will be an important feature
for storm development later in the day as any outflow boundary
will be a focus for additional storms Thursday afternoon/evening.

Thursday afternoon/evening thunderstorms will pose more of a severe
threat then the morning convection. Models suggest that the
atmosphere will be able to recover from morning convection with a
moderately unstable airmass of 3000-3500 J/kg CAPE and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40-50 kts to support robust updrafts. The surface
low out across western Kansas will move into northeast Kansas by
00Z with warm front draped across northern Missouri before
dropping southward across eastern Missouri. Storms look to
initiate near the surface low and warm front intersection then
initiating along the cold front boundary that will extend back
into Kansas. Storms will quickly organize with the potential for
damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. In
addition, strong moisture advection will result in PWAT values of
1.5 to 2 inches and heavy rainfall may cause some flooding
concerns, especially over areas that received significant rainfall
earlier this week.

The cold front will be slow to move through the area Friday and we
will likely see another round of storms along the front Friday.
Cooler temperatures with another round or two of showers and
thunderstorms look likely through the weekend as the front looks
to stall over the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Early period cloud
cover will be mostly cirrus blowoff from storms across SE Nebraska
transitioning over to 5-7kft scattered cu deck by 18Z. Despite a
stout 30-40kt 850mb jet developing over NE Kansas and NW Missouri,
steep lapses rates are helping to mix down the higher momentum
winds with most terminals expecting to see sustained winds of
10-15kt...gusting to 20 to 25kt with only marginal LLWS concerns
overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...PietrychaP


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