Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

An outflow this morning slightly slowed down the potential severe
weather and flooding pattern as the large cirrus shield kept us
cooler until about 1pm. The clearing behind this boundary has been
enough to heat us up and start the process of increasing MLCAPE over
the region. Temperatures will likely get into the lower 80s, but the
main story will be the dewpoints that will get into the upper 60s
and lower 70s. This push of moist air at max heating will allow our
area to get MLCAPE levels near 2500 J/kg which will lie along a
surface convergent boundary right along I-35 corridor and west
initially. Convection has already started down near Emporia and is
currently moving our direction. Effective bulk shear of 40-45kts
will allow for some of these storms to become strong to severe. The
main threat looks to be large hail and damaging winds with the
tornado threat not zero but rather low with southwest surface winds.
Isolated cells may be able to form east of I-35 as we reach
convective temperature, but will not be as organized.

The overall setup is starting to look more like a
significant flooding event than severe as the storms. The storms
look to stay along the surface boundary with steering flow parallel
and training storms likely. Where this main flow of training storms
occur (currently N side of KC Metro just west of I-35) could have
quick flooding with flash flood guidance 2" or less for 3 and 1 hour
periods. PWAT values will reach 1.7 to 1.8" which is well above
climatology maximum for this time of year. Satellite derived
precipitable water indicate a mid and upper level tropical
connection from the south that converges right over the low level
moisture as it enters our area.  This pattern has typically been
what we see synoptically for us to get significant flash flooding, so
monitoring where this line of training storms will form and where
the danger this evening will be at. Once the LLJ forms up another it
looks to re-energize the boundary and may lead to more efficient
storms going over the same areas as todays heavy rains. This will
increase the flash flood threat even more. The total rainfall along
this convergent boundary will be 2-3" but an isolated 4-5" if not
out of the question if storms can train for a few hours in the same
spot. Guidance is all over the place on what will happen tomorrow
morning on the back side of this developing MCS this evening. Some
have redevelopment along the LLJ, others hold off until Saturday
morning. So it may take seeing how this evenings storms evolve to
have high confidence on precip chances for Saturday.

Saturday afternoon guidance does seem to come more in-line with each
other with a warm front developing along northern Kansas into
northern Missouri. This will be the axis for our next chance of
severe weather and another round of possible flooding with saturated
grounds. GFS and NAM are both indicating over 3000 J/kg along that
boundary with 45-50kts of effective bulk shear and decent clockwise
hodographs to support possible supercells and maybe even a small
window of tornado threat depending on what surface winds do at
initiation. Guidance is indicating the much larger area of severe
weather out in western Kansas will eventually evolve into a large
MCS that will push through the region Saturday night into the
morning. That may bring a damaging wind and also flash flooding
threat as our flash flood guidance may be almost zero by that point.
There may be slight break in precipitation Sunday afternoon, but
with a stalled quasi-stationary front over central MO we could still
see activity in the afternoon. Shear does not look as impressive
with ridging overhead so that will be our lowest severe weather day.

A shortwave trough Sunday night into Monday look to light up the lee-
side of the Rockies with a possible MCS going into are area Monday
morning with some lingering activity across northern Missouri into
the afternoon. A more significant shortwave trough will exit into
the southern plains Monday night setting up what currently looks
like a large severe weather event from the Great Lakes down into
Texas. This will need to be monitored as we get closer. The area
finally clears out precipitation wise Wednesday through Friday for
our only dry stretch we`ve seen in a while.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri impacting all TAF sites. Main
line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will slowly push
further east into central Missouri over the next several hours.
Expect MVFR conditions in heavier precipitation. Radar currently
shows additional thunderstorm development north of KTOP and
guidance indicates this activity will expand and move east.
Although confidence is low on timing, expect scattered convection
into mid morning. The next possible round of scattered
thunderstorms arrives by early evening. Outside of convection,
winds will remain from the south gusting near 25 kts weakening to
near 12 kts by morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MOZ020>023-
     028>031-037-038-043-044-053.

     Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     024.

&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...32/Otto



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