Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 212144
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Well above normal temperatures expected into next week

-Next chance for precipitation holds off until next Tuesday
night/Wednesday


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

The forecast today will be dominated by mid level ridging and light
southerly flow. Warm air advection will be plentiful today and
temperatures are expected to warm to near 25 degrees above normal
this afternoon. As of this writing, temperatures have already soared
into the mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. Another few
degrees of heating is not out of the question with some reaching
into the low 70s by this afternoon.  In fact, some sites may tie or
break record highs this afternoon with records across the area in
the low to mid 70s.

Heading into tonight, a weak surface low off to the west will
gradually track east this evening into the overnight. The
associated upper wave will also track east overnight, leading to
increasing lift across southern Missouri. Short range models are in
good agreement that this activity will stay south of our forecast
area, impacting locations closer to the the I-44 corridor. Overnight
storms could be on the strong side in those locations, but again
this will be south of our forecast area.

For the forecast on Thursday, temperatures will be a bit cooler
after the passage of a cold front. Still, temperatures will be near
20 degrees above normal. Highs will top our in the low to mid 60s
with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. On Thursday night a
reinforcing cold front moves through cooling temperatures again on
Friday with highs "only" reaching the 50s to low 60s with
similar conditions expected on Saturday.

Dry weather continues into Sunday with a warming trend starting for
the early part of the week. Temperatures in the 70s can be
expected Sunday through Tuesday. These widespread 70s will be 25
degrees above normal. Some locations may even reach 30 degrees
above normal or approach record highs. The pattern shifts
Tuesday into Wednesday as a positively tilted wave slides east
through the forecast area bringing the return of cooler
temperatures an precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday.
With the cooler temperatures, some winter weather will be a
possibility, but given the early week warm temperatures, don`t
expect anything to stick around at this points.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will remain weak around 5-10 knots and shift to a
northerly direction overnight. Potential for some lower ceilings
early tomorrow morning, however confidence remains fairly low
at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Collier


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