Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 AM CST THU DEC 12 2019

Message of the Day: Breezy conditions today, with southerly to
southwesterly wind gusts up to 40 mph. Colder temperatures return
Saturday. The chance for accumulating snow in the region continues
for Sunday and Monday, potentially causing some travel impacts.

Low pressure developing over western KS has started to tighten the
pressure gradient over the area and increase surface winds. The
southerly to southwesterly winds will only get stronger as we go
through the morning. Sustained winds up to 25 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph are expected, with peak winds around late morning. Winds
will gradually weaken through the afternoon, becoming light
around sunset. We are also starting to see temperatures stall or
even increase due to the southerly winds advecting in warmer air.
Most have probably already seen their low temperature for the
night. The increased warm air advection will allow for highs to
reach the mid 40s across northern MO to low 50s elsewhere. The
low pressure will move through the area today, but will weaken as
it does so. This and the overall dry vertical profile will keep
conditions dry today and tomorrow. The mild temperatures are
expected again on Friday.

Later Friday into Saturday, a more robust low pressure system will
move through the area, bringing with it colder air and a slight
chance for some precipitation. The question is how much can we
saturate. If we can saturate enough, the slight chance of
precipitation will be along the cold front. Rain is expected
initially, then we should see a transition to snow with some
freezing rain potentially mixing in overnight. Due to the limited
moisture though, no wintry accumulations or hazardous travel is
expected at this time. Cold air will filter in behind the front,
with Saturday`s high temperatures topping out in the mid 20s in
our northern counties and upper 30s in our southern counties. In
other words, it`ll be about 15-20 degrees colder than Friday.

Our attention then turns to the Sunday and Monday time frame,
where all long-term models continue to depict a chance for
accumulating snow in the region. There are still disagreements,
however, when it comes to details like timing, storm track, and
amounts. There is also the role dry air might play that can`t be
detailed this far out. As it currently stands, the GFS is the
outlier, moving the surface low quicker and further north, and
generating more snow. Whereas, the ECMWF and Canadian are more
similar to each other, moving the surface low slower and keeping
it further south and east of the area. Both do show accumulating
snow, but they aren`t as drastic as the GFS. Even though we can`t
go into the details yet, this is something to continue monitoring,
especially for those who plan on traveling Sunday and Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST THU DEC 12 2019

LLWS is the biggest concern for this TAF period. Even though the
southerly winds have picked up already, a strong LLJ is being
observed according to the VWP plots. Wind speeds at 2kt are
around 50 kts. The LLWS concern will exist from the beginning of
the period through about 15/16Z. Surface winds will remain windy
through the afternoon with some lower level clouds moving in along
a weak cold front. Winds should start decreasing with the broken
clouds lifting in the late afternoon/early evening. The frontal
boundary will stall across the area, making winds variable
overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins


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