Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 072343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2020

Message of the Day: Storm chances return Wednesday afternoon and
evening, mainly for the eastern half of MO. Severe weather is
possible, with concerns being large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado can`t be ruled out either though. Then a strong cold
front will move through Wednesday night dropping temperatures
quickly overnight by 15-20 degrees. Around freezing temperatures
are then expected early Friday morning, which could harm some
vegetation.

Upper level ridging dominates over much of the CONUS, with an upper
level low working its way south and east from west-central Canada
and a closed low off the CA Coast. At the surface, a weak low
pressure area and cold front, currently in southeastern NE, are
working their way southeast through the region. Southwesterly
winds over our area have been breezy and advecting in warm
temperatures. This will result in the first 80 degree day for the
year for some. It`ll also be a near record breaking day, with MCI
forecast to see 81 degrees (record is 85 from 2015). The weak
cold front will move through the area tonight, and while we won`t
really see much of a temperature change with this front, we will
see dew points lowered. This is noted because it may help limit
our storm chances tomorrow. Winds will shift back to the south
tomorrow ahead of a much stronger cold front. This will allow for
some warm air and moisture advection, but it looks like we won`t
have a lot of time for dew points to bounce back much. Another
limiting factor for storm chances tomorrow is the better upper
level lift looks to be more north and east of the area. These
ingredients might be limiting, but we will have some instability
(~2000 J/kg SB CAPE), deep layer shear (50-60 kt 0-6km shear),
and no capping, so storm development is still very possible. Main
area of focus is the eastern half of MO where ingredients have
better chances to come together. If we can get some healthy storms
to develop, large hail will be the initial concern due to steep
mid level lapse rates. The concern will then shift to damaging
winds as storms become more linear. As for tornadoes, can`t
completely rule one out, but low level rotation is really lacking
in this scenario. Best timing for storms is late afternoon into
the evening hours.

A strong cold front will move through behind these storms, dropping
temperatures back into the 30s and 40s Wednesday night. It`ll also
be windy behind the front making it feel more like the 20s and 30s.
Thursday and Friday will have plenty of sunshine, but will be cooler
with highs in the 50s. High pressure will move into the area
Thursday night which will help temperatures drop into the upper 20s
to low 30s by Friday morning. Any sensitive vegetation will need to
be protected.

The closed low off the coast of CA, will slowly move east through
the week, finally impacting our area over this coming weekend. This
will bring chances for showers and storms for both Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2020

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just increasing high
clouds thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be lgt and vrb tonight
before increasing out of the WSW to 5-10kts by late morning. A
cold front will move thru the terminals btn 17Z-19Z with winds
shifting to the NNW and increasing to 15-20kts with gusts to
25-30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...73


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