079
FXUS63 KEAX 101119
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until at least Wednesday
  evening for central Missouri.

* Overnight storm chances: There is a 10-30% chance of overnight
  showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest likilihood across
  northeast KS into northern Missouri.

* Rain chances increase late week as a stationary boundary
  across central Iowa sags south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Broad upper ridge remains across the southern US. Closer to the
surface, a 30-40 knot low level jet remains from eastern TX into
central Indiana.  This low level jet has prevented the atmosphere
from cooling supstantially, and fueled storms across the region.
These storms are handled relatively poorly by various models, but
have begun to be recognized by the HRRR/RAP over the last few hours.
 Expect the threat elevated convection to remain through the mid
morning hours but expect an overall weakening trend as the morning
goes on.  There is a shortwave across south central Nebraska as of
08Z, and with ample mid level moisture, could see a renewed threat
of elevated showers/thunderstorms across northern Missouri mid-day.
With the expected cloud cover and showers, expect high temperatures
to be moderated a bit.  Considered a heat advisory along and south
of I-70 (north of the excessive heat warning), but with impacts of
cloud cover and showers, opted to just stick with the excessive heat
warning across central MO.

CAMs suggest convection redeveloping across the High Plains late
this afternoon, pushing east/southeast tonight on the leading edge
of the thermal ridge. With this activitiy once again building into a
stregthening 40-50 knot low level jet, could see these storms last
longer than CAMs suggest leading to another night of potential
scattered storms.

Clearing skies through the day is once again expected to lead to
anoother mild day with highs in the mid and upper 90s with heat
indices of 105-110 F degrees.  Will need to once again consider a
heat advisory for Tuesday depending on potential clearing.

Stationary front across Central Iowa along I-80 may try to work
south as low pressure develops in western KS and gradually pushes
east.  South of the front, warm and humid conditions are expected to
continue, so location of the front will be key.  Low level jet south
of the boundary will likely fuel nocturnal thunderstorms on the
north side of boundary Wednesday night. Additional ridge riding
shortwaves are expected through the late week into the weekend
leading for additional periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Showers across the region are
expected to weaken and push southeast; however, additional
elevated showers are possible along and north of highway 36
after 15Z. Gusty southwest winds are expected from 15Z- the
evening hours. Low level jet stregthens across the region after
sunset tonight creating the potential for low level wind shear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT

AVIATION...BT