Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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494
FXUS63 KEAX 061115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dense Fog across portions of NW Missouri and NE Kansas this morning

* Cool, but near-normal, temperatures through week and weekend
  - Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s
  - Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s

* Precipitation chances return late Friday, through Saturday
  - Currently, looking at amounts around 0.25" to 1.0" in most
    cases

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Clear, quiet conditions have generally settled across the region
with surface high pressure influence overspreading the central and
northern Plains. Aside from clear skies and cool/chilly conditions,
fog, seen nicely on GOES fog products, has been able to develop
within an area of light to calm winds and inverted surface ridging.
Hi-res guidance has been consistent in its depiction of this and
reasonable suggestion gradual eastward expansion in conjunction with
the inverted surface ridging. Do have a Dense Fog Advisory in place
already across far NE Kansas and much of NW Missouri. May need some
southward and eastward expansion though before sunrise, and will
continue to monitor available in-situ observations and GOES fog
products. Fog should lift by mid-morning, though densest areas may
linger a bit longer with little surface flow to aide dissipation.

Quiet and cool, but near-normal, conditions will continue over the
next few days as the area remains on the cool side of the SW upper
level flow pattern. Expect temperatures near-normal for this time of
the year with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid
30s to mid 40s. Western trough currently near the 4-Corners region
remains expected to cutoff and drift southward toward the
AZ/NM/Mexico border. Flagship synoptic models do not depict any
notable shortwaves ejecting out into the Plains ahead of the upper
low, keeping conditions dry into and potentially through most of
Friday. By late week, the cut off upper low and surface reflection
will drift into the Plains in response to Pacific trough approaching
the west coast. Current forecasted track of the upper low takes it
just to our NW, leaving much of the precipitation chances over the
area driven by WAA/isentropic lift as the system drifts toward the
area. Expectation remains for primarily showers and a few rumbles of
non-severe thunder given weak to no instability depicted. Overall
precipitation timing continues to come into better agreement among
synoptic guidance and their respective ensembles, resulting in >70%
PoPs sweeping across from SW to NE overnight Friday into Saturday.
Total rainfall amounts should be on the modest end given progressive
nature and lack of strong convection, and is reflected in NBM
probabilities of 1" or greater rainfall generally under 50%.
Greatest chances across SE Kansas and SW Missouri. Precipitation
chances exit by Saturday night and the weekend will end on a dry
note.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Only concern within the TAF period is visibilities/fog to begin
with. Most widespread and densest fog is north of the KC Metro,
including KSTJ. Metro TAF sites will vary considering their
respective locations. KMKC, being along river, is now entrenched
in FG while KMCI and KIXD have shown hints of fog but may
struggle to degrade too much before post-sunrise improvement,
especially the more urban KIXD. Once fog dissipates by mid-
morning, light easterly winds and VFR conditions will prevail
remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis