Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 122316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 243PM CDT WED AUG 12 2020

A mildly active weather pattern sets up for the next couple of
days. An area of convection which started this morning in western
KS has migrated its way east. It is expected for these showers to
continue dissipating as they enter into much more stable air,
however, it is some showers may make their way into E KS and W MO
(primarily NW MO) later this afternoon and evening.

General southerly flow at mid levels continues to pump moisture
into the Central Plains. A leeward cyclone currently situated in
western KS is slowly following upper level steering currents to
the south and east. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure is steadily
forming over the Great Lakes region putting W MO in the
confluence zone between the two pressure systems. As the leeward
cyclone intensifies and makes it way south, a warm frontal
boundary juts off its northeast quadrant setting up across the KC
metro during the day tomorrow and Friday. On top of all of this,
literally, is the seasonal SW US 500mb high pressure ridge
extending in diameter from the Pacific Coast through to the
OK/TX/AR border. Over the next few days, the low stalls on the
OK/KS border while several shortwaves flow clockwise around the
500mb high. These waves interacting with the warm front, confluent
winds, and a strong low level jet. All of these ingredients are
more than enough catalyst for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Friday.

Looking further, during the weekend the Great Lakes surface high
builds and advects some cool dry Canadian air into our area setting
up a very pleasant beginning to next week. Heat and humidity look
to make another appearance toward the end of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2020

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. A weak upper level
system moving through northeastern KS may bring some isolated
showers to eastern KS and western MO this evening. So have added
some VCSH for a few hours to start the forecast. Otherwise, just
some high level clouds moving through associated with wave and
some diurnal CU developing late tomorrow morning through the
remainder of the forecast. Winds are expected to be light from the
southeast throughout the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...CDB



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