Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CST THU FEB 27 2020

As of early this afternoon, clouds continue to increase as an
upstream upper wave moves across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas. Regional radar imagery shows a concentrated area of light to
moderate echoes associated with this disturbance. Models have
been very consistent in bringing this activity southeastward from
eastern Kansas into southwest Missouri, only clipping a small
portion of our far southwestern forecast area. Therefore, expect
light rain or sprinkles in EC KS/WC MO late this afternoon into
mid-evening. In the wake of this wave, skies should become
partially clear with a break in precipitation. A second wave
embedded within the northwest flow aloft will reach Iowa/N
Missouri by sunrise Friday, once again increasing cloud cover and
bringing chances of light precipitation. With colder temperature
profiles during the morning, this second wave is likely to be in
the form of light snow or flurries over far northern Missouri. A
few other areas of patchy sprinkles will be possible during the
day as the wave departs and temperatures warm.

The warmup in temperatures reaches a peak this weekend as upper
ridging builds into the central CONUS and an H85 thermal axis
stretches through the Central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley. Highs
this weekend will be well above normal in the upper 50s and 60s.
A relatively dry atmosphere will remain in place, resulting in
tranquil weather. A highly-amplified upper trough begins to move
into the Plains on Monday, with an associated cold front sliding
through the forecast area. This will bring an end to the 60s, but
slightly above normal readings are expected to persist for a few
more days. While model consistency is strong with the synoptic
behavior of the trough lending to high confidence, the details of
precipitation chances Tue/Wed remain uncertain with the northward
extent of precipitation. Overall, the probability for impactful
weather within our area is low through the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST THU FEB 27 2020

VFR overnight with light winds from the northwest. Tomorrow
around 18Z expect MVFR cigs and breezy northwest winds G18-20kts
to spread over the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Adolphson


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