592
FXUS63 KEAX 151105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
505 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog, reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less
  expected this morning across northern Missouri and northeast
  Kansas

- Temperatures warm tomorrow, continue to warm through the first
  half of next week

- Elevated fire weather concerns possible Tuesday.

- Next chance for precipitation Tuesday night (15-20%)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Early this morning, stratus is covering most of the forecast area
with the exception of the northern Missouri and extreme northeast
Kansas. It is here where the skies have cleared that fog has
developed. This fog is expected to be dense through mid-morning with
visibilities reduced to a quarter mile or less and as such as dense
fog advisory has been issued. Conditions are expected to improve by
late morning as a surface ridge of high pressure moves into the
area. Height rises are expected over the region as well as upper
level ridging builds over the eastern Rockies and Plains in response
to a upper level trough digging into the west coast. This will aid
in highs rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s despite weak mixing.
By Monday, the surface ridge will slide east of the area and WAA
will get underway. In addition, the upper level ridge will move over
the area which will aid in driving highs into the mid 60s to near
70. Tuesday, aforementioned west coast trought, now in the form of a
much weaker shortwave will move from the eastern Rockies into the
western Plains with an attendant cold front developing over the
western Plains. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient
across the local area with strong WAA driving highs to near record
levels in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With well above normal
temperatures and strong and gusty southerly winds an elevated fire
danger may be possible Tuesday although relative humidity values and
moist fuels will keep concerns well below critical thresholds.

Tuesday night, the upper level shortwave will move into the central
Plains and Upper Midwest forcing a Pacific front through the area.
Moisture with this front will be meager however, strong forcing may
be enough to produce a few showers (15-20% chance). Behind the front
Wednesday, strong downsloping western flow is expected which will
again produce another day of well above (20-25 degrees) normal
temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday
another upper level shortwave will move through the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest forcing another cold front through the area.
Moisture will again be lacking but the chance (15-30%) for a few
showers will be possible. This front will also usher in cooler
temperatures. Thursday will be a day of transition as highs across
northwest Missouri where the front will pass earlier in the day will
only reach the low to mid 50s but will range to near 70 across the
southeastern CWA. Continued CAA behind the front Thursday night into
Friday will return highs to near normal on Friday with highs ranging
from the lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

IFR cigs will prevail at MCI, MKC and IXD thru 17Z-18Z before
cigs sct around 2kft and conds become VFR. AT STJ, vis reduced
to 1/4SM with fog will prevail thru 15Z with gradual improvement
btn 15Z-17Z before becmg VFR. Aft 17Z sct cigs around 2kft will
prevail thru 23Z-00Z aft which just ocnl sct high clouds are
fcst. Winds will begin the pd out of the N/NNW around 5kts but
will back to the WNW around 5kts aft 17Z. Aft 22Z-00Z winds will
back to the south around 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>006-
     011>015-020.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73