Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211737
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the end of February.

- Low chance (~20%) of rain showers, perhaps a thunderstorm,
  south of highway 50 tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

Broad upper ridge across the central US is leading to unseasonably
mild condition temporarily peaking today.  Relatively nebulous
surface features this morning will lead to light and variable winds.
Just above the surface, there is a low level jet feeding north from
Texas into the Great Lakes region.  While this will undergo
weakening throughout the day, it will still aid in weak moisture
transport northward today. A shortwave just off the California
coast this morning is expected to rapidly move east today in
fast flow aloft. As this system pushes east, a weak area of low
pressure is expected to develop across Kansas reinforcing the
southerly flow. As warm air advection increases ahead of this
feature, 925 hpa temperatures are expected to warm to near 15C.
This will lead to highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s across
the region. With max heating, could see a few cumulus develop
through the afternoon hours with increasing mid and upper level
cloud cover.

Low level jet develops tonight extending from eastern Texas into the
Mississippi Valley.  Area is on the northern fringes of the low
level jet.  Best moisture advection remains south of the area, but
with the mass convergence, there is a small chance we could see an
elevate storm across eastern Kansas work east through the overnight
hours.  While instability is meager, ~200-300 J/kg of CAPE, bulk
shear values near 40 knots are sufficient to allow for the
organization if something was able to develop. This shear is enough
to prompt SPC to issue a marginal risk for southwestern Missouri,
where the better chances of precipitation exist.

As the low pressure moves east, 925 hpa temperatures cool 3-5
degrees leading to slightly cooler conditions on Thursday.  A
secondary cool front works through the region Thursday night,
leading to even cooler and drier conditions on Friday. With the
breezy northwest winds on Friday, could see a slightly elevated
fire danger though the afternoon hours as relative humidity
values fall near 30%.

Upper level ridge expands across the central US this weekend
into early next week leading to unseasonably mild conditions
returning for the end of February.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will remain weak around 5-10 knots and shift to a
northerly direction overnight. Potential for some lower ceilings
early tomorrow morning, however confidence remains fairly low
at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Collier


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