998
FXUS63 KEAX 221726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns today.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return tonight. Primary
  hazards include large hail and strong winds.

- Chances for showers once again Monday evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

The strong pressure gradient associated with a surface low in the
Great Lakes Region has moved east of the area. This has decreased
wind speeds overnight and relaxed low level jet setup that yielded
those gusty southwesterly winds on Friday. A surface high builds
through the rest of the early morning hours, further rendering winds
light and variable through at least the late morning. The pressure
gradient tightens once again across the region this afternoon
as a shortwave low progresses through the northern plains, with
southerly winds setting up a warm air advection regime across
the region. Highs will range in the 60s as a result. RHs in the
20-30% range coupled with gusty winds yields elevated fire
weather concerns for the region. Cloud coverage may limit the
amount of surface heating during the daylight hours.

This evening, models advertise a shortwave low developing off the
Front Range, quickly moving east into southeastern Missouri by
midnight. This paired with the aforementioned low in the upper
midwest will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight.
The pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface cold front
passage, with a robust low-level jet also setting up by late
tonight. The probabilistic NBM gives a 40-60% of wind gusts
exceeding 25 mph after midnight for much of the area. The lower-
level jet advecting a moist, warm air mass into the region will
promote elevated instability. Thus, expect potential
multicell/supercell thunderstorms to be concentrated above 850mb as
surface based CAPE is meager in most models. Mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be conditionally unstable tomorrow night, meaning
that lifted air parcels have increased potential to be positively
buoyant if enough moisture is present (which is possible due to the
low-level jet funneling a warm air mass into the region during the
same timeframe). These marginally unstable lapse rates will increase
the hail threat associated with potential storms as well. Global
models paint up to 1500J/kg of MUCAPE in a southwest to northeast
orientation over the majority of the region between 06-09Z. CAMs
depict discrete scattered storms developing mainly south of
Interstate 70 after midnight. Mid-level shear is orientated
perpendicular to the frontal boundary, which favors this storm type.
Storms are expected to clear the region by 12Z. The SPC has the
entirely of the CWA south of the US-36 corridor in a marginal risk
(1/5) for severe thunderstorms. Winds shift from southwest to
northwest throughout the entire region by late morning, signaling a
cold front passage.

Ridging builds in behind the strong low passing north of the region
tomorrow. This will promote clearing throughout the morning hours
alongside dryer conditions. Northwesterly surface flow keeps
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s to the lower 60s across the
area. Cloud coverage increases once again Monday afternoon as a
shortwave low develops upstream of the broader upper-level flow.
This will increase chances for rain showers Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals with southerly winds
around 10-12 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. VFR
conditions are likely to continue through the period, although
quite a bit of mid to high level cloud cover will be prevalent
through much of the period. There will be a chance for isolated
to scattered showers (and perhaps a thunderstorm) in roughly the
8z to 10z time frame Sunday morning, so have continued the
PROB30 for -SHRA. Breezy southerly winds should persist through
today and tonight, becoming west northwesterly and increasing,
with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots by around 14z Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hayes
AVIATION...BMW