585
FXUS63 KEAX 121904
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
204 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm today, cooler tomorrow, then seasonable to seasonably warm
  thereafter.

* Precipitation chances late overnight and Friday mainly stay east,
  clip portions of eastern CWA.

* Appreciable precipitation stays east through the weekend, then
  some chances over the area possible around Wed/Thur next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine remnants continue to drive the story and larger weather
over the region and will continue to have a hand in coming days.
Core of Francine has moved up the Mississippi River Valley,
currently in/around NW Mississippi. High level clouds have
persistently streamed northward into/across Missouri through the
day, though most robust cloud cover remains in the SGF/LSX areas,
while filtered sunshine continues to prevail locally. This has
resulted in temperatures once again being on the warm, and bit more
humid, side with early afternoon temperatures widely in the low to
mid 80s already, even a site or two approaching 90.

Not too much change in the large scale pattern/picture over the next
handful of days with fair to good consensus among deterministic and
ensemble solutions. Current sizable PNW trough/cutoff low will
continue to be deflected northeastward into Canada as a high over
low/Rex Block continues to set up with upper ridge/high building
into the Great Lakes and Francine lingering in the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. As such, the area will reside in the awkward
transition region between the aforementioned. With weak upper level
flow the result, there is some uncertainty on some of the details
should western trough and subsequent waves be stronger and/or more
southerly in nature or Rex Block stronger than progged. Fortunately,
the uncertainty envelop is mainly a few degrees in temperatures and
the difference between no rain and some light/measurable rain,
nothing drastic.

As it stands, census remains for low end (under 30%) chances for
measurable precipitation over eastern areas beginning late in the
overnight tonight period through Friday and potentially lingering
into/through the weekend. For those looking for something more than
just measurable, the prognosis tends to be unfavorable with recent
ensemble and NBM probabilities of 0.10" or more under 20% over far
SE/E areas of the CWA. This continues through the weekend, even with
moistening low levels as large scale forcing stays east and mid-
upper levels remain quite dry with dry air advection, if anything.
Temperatures will be repressed a handful of degrees Friday with
thicker cloud cover and the best opportunity for any measurable
precipitation, expect temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, warmest
west where bits of sun may prevail at times. Into the weekend, as
Francine remnants drift eastward and weaken, southerly surface flow
will help bring temperatures back into the 80s for highs and remain
so well into next week.

And into next week is where uncertainty grows with regards to
precipitation. Area will remain within a transitional region, but
further breakdown of Francine and additional western trough
shortwaves will provide a few opportunities for some precipitation.
The newest of which is being depicted in recent deterministic runs,
peeling off Francine remnants and trying to inject it into the
larger SW upper level flow pattern. This would potentially trigger a
few showers over the area early next week, but these recent
changes have yet to be reflected in NBM and going forecast and
would like to see some consistency before injecting into the
forecast as well. Further into the week, western trough looks
to exert more influence as a potent shortwave/compact closed low
tries to push a boundary through the Plains. This is fairly
well signaled, and feel NBM 20-30% PoPs are reasonable, though
timing will likely change given parent shortwave is nowhere near
continental US at this point in time. Throughout the week,
temperatures in the 80s look to prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR conditions remain expected to prevail throughout the current
TAF period. High level clouds from Francine remnants will
continue to stream overhead, but remain largely at or above
20kft. Otherwise, winds out of the E/SE around 10kts or less
today, easing overnight and then easterly to around 10kts
daytime Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis