Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
970 FXUS66 KEKA 080901 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 101 AM PST Sun Mar 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Some weak clipping fronts will bring small chances of very light coastal drizzle or a few showers between periods of rebounding warm temperatures. Northerly winds will remain gusty, particularly through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A weak cold front will clip the region on Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures and a small chance for a few light showers, or more likely light drizzle. Temperatures will still be warmer than average, especially for inland locations. A strong Pacific ridge will generally remain in control as additional weak fronts attempt to briefly flatten it, introducing more very slight chances for light showers on occasion, mainly in Del Norte County. Chances for a wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or higher) only reach 25% to 35% late next week and increase some next weekend. There will periods of rebounding high temperatures between the fronts. Northerly winds will remain breezy. A cutoff low to the south will further tighten the pressure gradient against the restrengthening ridge Monday and Tuesday. Northerly winds will increase in response and will be quite gusty Monday afternoon in particular. Forecast soundings indicate well-mixing through the boundary layer through this period, allowing for efficient downward momentum transfer and gusty surface winds along the coast. NBM holds a high chance (60%- 80%) for maximum wind gust of 30 mph or higher Monday for areas along the coast and higher terrain areas of interior Del Norte and Humboldt counties. There is a moderate to high chance (40%-60%) for gusts to exceed 35 mph over some of the exposed coastal headlands and over coastal Del Norte and around Cape Mendocino. Winds will ease some Tuesday, but will remain breezy through Tuesday afternoon. JJW && .AVIATION...(08/06z TAFS)...Coastal stratus blossomed along the North Coast Saturday evening. IFR ceilings from 200-700 feet were reported over the coastal aerodromes. Mesoscale models as usual were underdone and too slow with the stratus bloom. All the high resolution mesoscale models indicated no stratus at KCEC which is clearly wrong based on IR satellite imagery and surface reports. Two models are reasonably close, the NAMnest and ARW. This is a known dry bias of all mesoscale models in decaying offshore flow. Terminal forecasts for KACV and KCEC have therefore been adjusted to match observations and current trends. Trended the forecast after 12-18 hours toward GFS and NAM MOS guidance which has stratus scattering out and clearing by late morning and early afternoon, 18Z-21Z. MOS tends to underestimate the persistence of the stratus. A secondary push of stratus will likely surge onshore after the initial late morning improvement. Mesoscale models indicate stratus reforming and expanding again Sunday evening and then pushing into the North Coast river valleys overnight as a weak front moves across the Pac NW. N to NW winds increase Sunday night behind the front and shallow turbulence and/or LLWS will be a distinct hazard for small light weight aircraft traversing the coastal terrain. && .MARINE...Marine conditions will remain hazardous for small craft through this weekend as steep northerly waves combine with short period NW swell. Gale force northerlies will persist for waters south of Cape Mendocino through Sunday. Strong to moderate breezes with large steep northerly winds waves are forecast to continue for much of the northern waters through Sunday as a thermal trough meanders near the coast. Widespread northerly gales are expected early next week after the passage of a front. Near storm force wind gusts are possible Monday, near and downwind of Cape Mendocino. Gale warnings have been hoisted. A gale watch has been hoisted for the northern inner waters due to uncertainty with the timing of gales. Large steep seas are expected to build, reaching 14 to 17 feet Monday evening through Tuesday, highest south of Cape Mendocino. Our long stretch of strong and persistently northerlies will finally abate around mid week, especially north of Cape Mendo. Moderate winds will likely continue south of Cape Mendo. Steep seas will be slower to subside. A series of mid and long period swell groups also propagate into the waters mid to late week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for PZZ450. Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PST Monday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 5 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 5 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png