Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
608 FXUS66 KEKA 222208 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 308 PM PDT Sat Mar 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering light showers or sprinkles through late afternoon. Dry weather and above normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. High sneaker wave threat along the beaches on Sunday. Chance of precipitation returns on Wednesday as a low pressure approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION...Lingering light showers or sprinkles will continue to dissipate this afternoon into early evening as a shortwave trough driving south-southeast, moves out of the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure offshore will continue to build in quickly downstream of the trough. Tonight, drier and stable air mass will moves over the area. For areas where skies clear out quickly, areas of valley fog are expected to develop tonight into Sunday. A warming trend is forecast as the upper level ridging will moves over the region on Sunday, and then continue to amplifies through Tuesday. This will promote dry weather, above normal temperatures and overnight offshore flow. Interior high temperatures are forecast to warm well into the 80`s, with the warmest days Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) highlight temperatures above normal for NW California with 70th to 90th percentile on Tuesday, including area along the coast. With fair weather and light winds, the main focus for Sunday will be the high threat of sneaker waves. Refer to the Beach Hazards section. Ensembles and deterministic models are showing a broad upper level trough approaching the area on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainties in the timing and location. However, all cluster remain a high chance for precipitation returning by mid-next week, with the bulk of the precipitation over Del Norte and Humboldt counties. NBM continue showing increasing probabilities for gusty southerly winds on Wednesday, with Del Norte and much of the higher elevations seeing around a 60% probability for a peak gust over 45 mph. ECMWF Ensemble 6 hour max wind gusts mean suggest up to 40 mph, with some member showing around 55 mph for Crescent City. Snow levels generally above 4000 feet by mid to late week. However, the NBM 10th percentile snow levels are around 3500 ft, which could bring snow to the highest passes of 299. The mean snow level is around 4000 ft, which would limit snow impacts to Highway 3 at Scott Mountain Pass and the highest passes of Highway 36. CPC is highlighting a moderate risk of of heavy precipitation and heavy mountain snow between the 31st and April 2nd. This is still a ways out, but will need to be watched. ZVS && .AVIATION...Light showers eased by mid morning at the coastal terminals. Sporadic showers continue at KCEC with low ceilings persisting into the evening, keeping LIFR/IFR categories in the TAFs. Precip should be over by 0z at KCEC with 200-300 foot ceilings raising to around 700 feet by 2-3z. KACV has faired better with regards to visibility but cloud groups around 800-1300 feet have gone from scattered to broken this afternoon which will could cause flight categories to toggle between IFR/MVFR. With ridging setting in you can expect clearing by Sunday morning at dawn for KACV and KCEC. The probability of ceilings higher than 6500 feet for Sunday are around 30% for the coastal terminals. KUKI has improved to MVFR categories although overcast. This will keep MVFR in play through the TAF period. Heavy precip returns Wednesday as a strong signal for the next AR looks likely. Otherwise, cloud cover will likely keep fog from dominating Sunday morning for the area terminals, patchy fog is possible. /EYS && .MARINE...Seas will remain in the 6 to 8 foot range through the entire forecast period, with periods alternating between 12 and 16 seconds as unique wave systems move through the area. Winds will remain out of the south today before veering to the north as ridging builds aloft. This will happen first in the southern waters tonight and then in the northern waters by Sunday. Northerly winds will persist through Tuesday before an approaching front backs the winds around to the south by Wednesday. && .BEACH HAZARDS...A Beach Hazard Statement remain in effect for Sunday due to a high risk of sneaker waves along areas beaches. A long period swell will build into the waters Sunday morning, with heights at 8 feet at 16 seconds. These long period waves can generate lulls in wave activity ending with a large set of breaking waves that wash much farther up beach than previous waves. An additional sneaker wave threat is likely Monday evening as a fresh NW swell arrives during the decay of the previous swell train. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to midnight PDT Monday night for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png