Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 081052

National Weather Service Eureka CA
352 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage across
interior portions of Northwest California will trend downward
through Friday, and then increase this weekend into early next
week. Otherwise, temperatures will generally be near seasonal
normals during the next seven days.


.DISCUSSION...An upper trough will gradually exit east away from
CA during the next 24 hours. As that takes place, large-scale
ascent will become negligible across the EKA CWA, and low to
midlevel lapse rates will weaken. Thus, thunderstorm development
this afternoon will generally become confined to the taller
interior terrain, with isolated to scattered non-thundering
showers possible elsewhere. A similar scenario is expected during
Friday, followed by an upper trough evolving into a closed low
this weekend. The closed low will potentially yield a more
favorable environment for increased thunderstorm coverage over NRN
CA Saturday afternoon through early next week. Thereafter, multi-
model guidance shows shortwave ridging building across the region
from the west. That evolution will diminish precipitation
potential, and aid in moderating interior valley high



.AVIATION...An upper level trough moving over the area has
deepened the marine layer, bringing consistent MVFR ceilings all
along the coast. With a weak inversion allowing for depth of 4k
ft, marine clouds have spilled inland as far as Ukiah overnight.
NBM shows a 50% chance of brief IFR ceilings around sunrise as the
marine layer continues to fill out, but clouds will quickly lift
back out to MVFR later this morning. With midlevel clouds
continuing to inhibit solar heating, any clearing along the coast
is highly unlikely. Any MVFR ceiling in the interior, however,
should quickly lift out later this morning. Another, similar round
of stratus appears on tap for tonight. /JHW


.MARINE...A broad trough aloft has lead to a weak pressure
gradient near shore, allowing for generally light southerly
breezes to continue throughout the waters. Light winds will
continue through the week until high pressure building over the
Eastern Pacific will bring the return of moderate to strong
northerlies this weekend. Near gale gusts are possible in the
outer waters as soon as late Saturday afternoon.

Residual short period seas have dropped to 4 feet at 8 seconds
and will continue to fall through the week. Short period seas will
remain low until northerlies build back in this weekend.
Otherwise, a series of minor mid period southerly swells around 3
feet at 16 seconds will persist through the weekend. A mid period
westerly swell will start to build early Friday, reaching up to 4
feet at 14 seconds. /JHW




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