627
FXUS62 KFFC 202326 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

.UPDATE...
For 00z TAFs/Aviation. Also canceled Wind Advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

The deep long wave trough at the start of the period gradually moves
east and an upper ridge builds across the southeast late Monday into
Monday night. Meanwhile...winds will continue to gust this evening.
Winds will gradually fall below advisory criteria this afternoon
except for scattered areas. Will let the advisory expire at 00z.
At the higher elevations...there should be enough wind overnight
combined with lows in the teens to cause dangerous wind chill
values. Will be issuing a Wind Chill Advisory for the far northeast
tonight. Otherwise...after a very cold night tonight...temperatures
will moderate a bit for Monday and Monday night. However Monday night
will be another cold night with lows below freezing area wide.

41

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Extended forecast period continues to look like a significant shift
from our persistent warm winter pattern to a more seasonal period.
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
concerning the overall evolution of the long wave pattern dominated
by long wave trough across the eastern U.S. Still a good bit of
inconsistency between models, and to some extent from run-to-run
within the individual models, concerning the timing, path and
impacts of the short wave progression through the long wave pattern.
Still looks like we will be watching for the potential for much of
the forecast area to see a chance of wintry precipitation next
weekend, however, due to the uncertainty in the smaller scale
details, that portion of the forecast period continues to see
limited confidence at this time.

Did not make any substantive changes to the extended period grids
with this cycle, please see the Long Term Forecast Discussion
below.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as dry and
stable conditions exist across the area. Gusty NW winds will
gradually subside this evening. As high pressure moves east of the
area, sfc winds will become more NE-E late in the day, definitely
by evening hours.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High for all elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          24  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   5
Atlanta         23  41  28  48 /   0   0   0   5
Blairsville     16  37  22  42 /   0   0   0   5
Cartersville    22  40  27  48 /   0   0   0   5
Columbus        28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     22  41  25  43 /   0   0   0   5
Macon           27  47  28  53 /   0   0   0   5
Rome            22  39  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
Peachtree City  23  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   5
Vidalia         30  47  31  55 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for the following
zones: Fannin...Gilmer...Towns...Union.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DJN.83