Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291956
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

At a glance:

    - Cloudy, dry, and mild today

    - Unseasonably cool and rainy Friday

Cooler, drier air has settled in across north and central Georgia in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Supported by a brief period of
zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface, expect relatively
tranquil conditions today. As the center of the aforementioned
surface high slides across the mid-Atlantic, easterly flow and in-
situ wedging looks to develop, which will prevent us from clearing
out as meaningfully as we tend to do post-FROPA. Highs will be in the
mid-50s to lower-60s -- some 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday
-- with lows in the 40s. Despite relatively light accumulation from
yesterday`s quick-moving system (less than a half of an inch), fine
fuels remain moist enough today to preclude Fire Danger Statement
issuance.

Overnight tonight and into tomorrow, a slug of mid-level moisture
will overspread the Deep South and Southeast, tethered to the
northeastward movement of a shortwave across the TX/OK panhandle and
toward the Great Lakes. As this moisture is forced up and over the
cold dome isentropically, expect fairly widespread rain to develop,
beginning late tonight for our far southwestern tier and spreading to
the north and east tomorrow morning. Rainfall totals across the area
will range from a half of an inch to an inch, with higher amounts
skewed toward areas along and east of the Atlanta Metro -- within the
wedge. Persistent rainfall into the cool, stable CAD layer will lead
to further cooling, and highs tomorrow will reflect that. Areas
along and east of the I-75/I-20 connector will struggle to get out of
the 40s tomorrow, and to the south and west of that will be in the
50s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

At a glance:

 - Rain ending from the NW during the day Saturday, with mostly dry
   weather through Monday morning.

 - Unsettled weather will return Monday afternoon and evening, with
   periods of showers and thunderstorms through at least mid-week.

Showers will push to the SE portion of the area during the day
Saturday as a shortwave shifts to the E and a slow-moving front sags
SE. A period of mostly dry weather is expected from Saturday night
through Monday morning. An upper trough will dig over the Plains and
MS Valley from early to mid-week, with another cold front moving SE
toward the area. These features will support more showers and at
least isolated thunderstorms from Monday night through at least
Wednesday. Dynamics continue to look weak with this system, but
instability increases as we get into mid-week. Forecast uncertainty
increases toward the end of the period, but there is the potential
for unsettled weather to linger past Wednesday.

After near normal temperatures on Saturday, readings are expected to
run about 5-10 degrees above normal during the days and closer to
10-15 degrees above normal at night. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Deteriorating conditions thru the TAF pd. VFR thru 10-11Z, then BKN-
OVC MVFR, dropping further to IFR cigs at 500-600ft by 13Z. Cannot
rule out periods of LIFR/TWRINC, but low confidence. -RA/RA to move
in around 06-07Z, becoming steady thru the aftn. MVFR to IFR vsbys
psbl during heaviest pcpn. Winds will remain out of the E/ENE at
7-12kts, with an ocnl low-end gust to 20kts psbl.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence ceiling/precipitation timing and progression.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  45  42  66 /  70 100 100  20
Atlanta         41  46  43  64 /  70 100 100  20
Blairsville     36  45  41  64 /  60 100  90  10
Cartersville    39  46  43  65 /  60  90 100  10
Columbus        46  56  51  71 /  40  80 100  30
Gainesville     38  44  42  64 /  60 100 100  20
Macon           44  55  49  69 /  60  90 100  30
Rome            40  47  43  65 /  60 100  90  10
Peachtree City  41  50  44  66 /  60  90 100  20
Vidalia         47  61  54  71 /  40  80  80  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...96


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