056
FXUS62 KFFC 080022
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A Marginal Risk is in effect for portions of north and west
  central Georgia. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe
  this afternoon through late evening, capable of producing
  isolated damaging wind gusts.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal (15-20+ degrees)
  through midweek next week, threatening some daily records.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day
  into early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Anomalous warmth continues to be one of the main stories today,
but it will be followed by more showers and thunderstorms. First
things first, temperatures have again soared with many locations
reaching the 80s by early afternoon. A record daily high or two
will likely again be set before the day is over. Within this warm,
humid airmass, instability has increased with analyzed SBCAPE
already at or over 2000 J/kg. Similarly to yesterday, initial
convection has already begun to pop, and this scattered shower and
thunderstorm development will continue into this afternoon with
CAMS indicating a maximum in coverage this afternoon in a swath
near/along the I-85 corridor. The severe risk with these initial
storms is low, though frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and
even a small hail report or two would be possible (like
yesterday).

The focus by late afternoon and evening then turns to an ongoing
pre- frontal squall line currently pushing from the Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley region to our northwest. This
line is on track to enter northwest Georgia this evening and
progress into north Georgia through the first half of tonight.
Shear profiles are such that they are parallel to the line
orientation, thus presenting primarily an isolated damaging wind
threat as opposed to a spin-up tornado threat. This low-end
damaging wind risk is supported by the "Marginal" risk across the
northwest half of the area for this evening into tonight.
Convective intensity will wane overnight with the attendant
damaging wind risk also expected to lessen near and just after
midnight.

Heading into Sunday, the outlook for additional shower and
thunderstorm coverage is a bit more muddled. CAMs have become
decidedly more diffuse with coverage on Sunday, likely in large
part due to the aforementioned dissipating morning convection as
well as deeper convection along the northern Gulf coast. PoPs were
thus reduced a bit on Sunday below the very aggressive NBM PoPs,
particularly during the morning. Even so, with the surface cold
situated somewhere within the area on Sunday, at least scattered
shower and non-severe thunderstorm redevelopment is expected by
the afternoon. With the impact of the front as well as more
widespread cloud cover, temperatures will remain more comfortably
below records, though still some ten degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

At the start of the extended range on Monday, the Southeast will
remain entrenched within an unseasonably warm and moist airmass --
fueled by multiple days of southwesterly flow routed along the
western edge of persistent surface high pressure. Daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue through midweek, with
any disturbances passing through the quasi-zonal flow at the mid-
levels serving to bolster coverage. Warm temperatures and PWATs on
the order of 1.2-1.6" -- generally above the 90th percentile, and
potentially approaching daily maximum values climatologically --
will support efficient rainfall producers, though patchy nature of
convection should help to mitigate more than nuisance flooding
from occurring.

A meaningful pattern change looks to come Wednesday into
Thursday, when a stronger cold front riding along the leading edge
of a broader mid-level trough sweeps eastward. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to be more widespread and perhaps quasi-
organized along the front, and the highest rain chances in the
long term look to come on Thursday as the bulk of the frontal
forcing passes through.

Highs each day through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to
upper 80s, with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s each night.
Tuesday is likely to be the warmest day of the year for portions
of south central Georgia, with 90 not out of the question, and
overnight lows some 16 to 30 (!) degrees above average for March.

On Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the more seasonable
upper 50s to 60s (far southeast central Georgia may still rise
into the upper 70s on Thursday pre-frontal passage). Lows on
Thursday morning will dip into the mid-40s to near 60, and cooler
still on Friday morning post-front: in the mid-30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will likely persist roughly along the I-85
corridor until 02z-03z. Then, renewed SHRA/TSRA development is
likely overnight as a currently-weakening line of convection
pushes southeast across N and CNTRL Georgia. Lingering light SHRA
will be possible through Sunday in the wake of this system.
Lowering CIGs are expected behind the system, with a strong signal
for widespread MVFR. At this time, IFR CIGs look to be more
patchy in coverage. Lower CIGs may persist well into Sunday
afternoon. SW to W winds are expected through the TAF period,
although gusty winds with VRB direction can be expected in TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing and Sunday CIGs.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  72  59  78 /  70  60  20  30
Atlanta         62  72  60  78 /  80  60  30  40
Blairsville     56  68  53  74 /  80  60  20  20
Cartersville    61  72  58  78 /  80  60  20  30
Columbus        61  74  61  80 /  50  60  30  40
Gainesville     61  72  59  77 /  80  60  20  30
Macon           61  77  61  81 /  40  60  20  30
Rome            64  77  60  81 /  90  60  20  30
Peachtree City  61  73  59  78 /  80  60  30  40
Vidalia         63  84  62  84 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Martin