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677
FXUS63 KFGF 151124
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Some cirrus blowoff from the dying convection over the western
Dakotas is trying to move into the central Dakotas. Otherwise it
remains clear with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Temperatures today and Wednesday and thunder chances beginning
Wednesday afternoon are the main short term forecast challenges.

As of early Tuesday morning, skies across the FA were clear, dew
points were fairly low, and winds were light. There were some
showers and thunderstorms across eastern Montana, which should
fade away by morning...and they may spread a little cirrus into
the FA today. However, another sunny day is anticipated, with
highs pretty similar to Monday. Winds will switch around to the
east-southeast, and may get a little breezy by afternoon across
the Devils Lake region. The southeast winds will stay up tonight,
helping to keep lows a little warmer.

The 500mb ridge axis over the Northern Plains will begin to
flatten somewhat on Wednesday, but the 850mb thermal ridge will
move right over the FA. Therefore, anticipating the warmest day of
the week, with a good majority of the FA topping out in the 90s.
South winds look to be pretty windy initially, then as the cold
front approaches from the west...winds over eastern North Dakota
will turn to the west and northwest. The cold front looks to be
fairly close to the Red River by 00z Thursday. These late
afternoon westerly wind switches always have the potential to
bring late day temperature surges. So the best potential for mid
90s will be over eastern North Dakota. Wednesday afternoon is
toward the end of most of the high resolution guidance, but there
are some interesting differences showing up. Some members show a
broken line of convection developing out ahead of the surface
front in the 18z-21z time frame over northwest Minnesota, pushing
east of the FA by 00z Thursday. Other members show convection
developing along the boundary over the Red River Valley between
21z-00z Thursday.

Will be interesting to see what happens with this guidance as the
event moves closer. SPC has placed portions of the southern FA in
a marginal risk for severe weather during this time frame. The
HREF 4hr max 2-5km updraft helicity doesn`t have much for values
greater than 150, but it does have low probabilities for values
greater than 75, but more so into eastern South Dakota. The SPC
SREF 3hr calibrated severe thunderstorm product also favors
eastern South Dakota, but does have some lower probabilities into
the Red River Valley and the northwest quarter of Minnesota.
Models indicate stronger capping now, with 700mb temperatures
from +10 to +13C over the FA through 00z Thursday, so thinking
this may prevent much for thunder development until late afternoon
and evening. A developing low level jet by then may also put a
nod toward more nocturnal storms. Did keep some low precipitation
chances between 18z and 00z Thursday, but even this may be too
much/too soon. At any rate, both the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles show
a very low potential for a tenth of an inch of precipitation, so
this is not going to bring much rain to the parched areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

There will be potential impacts related to TS activity Wednesday
night and from the weekend into early next week. Also, potential
advisory level winds are expected this coming Friday.

Wednesday-Thursday...A highly amplified upper ridge will slide into
Minnesota as an upper low moves into northern Alberta/Saskatchewan.
A cold front will move out of the area Wednesday night, and a few
showers/storms are possible early in the period.

Friday...Upper pattern becomes more zonal as cooler air behind the
front brings more seasonal temperatures for the late week into the
weekend. Afternoon highs mainly in the 70s and 80s. An upper wave
will move across southern MB and clip our northeast zones, bringing
a chance for some SHRA/TS to Lake of the Woods. Friday will also be
quite windy as a H850 jet moves across southern Canada and along the
international border. Confidence is fairly high as u-component wind
values are nearing 99% to 99.5% outside climatological values on the
NAEFS climatology. Although Thursday will be quite breezy, Friday
looks like the best bet for advisory level winds being realized.

Friday night-Sunday...Quiet weather as a short wave ridge moves
across in the zonal flow aloft, which will gradually become more
northwesterly during this period. Highs in the 70s and 80s continue.

Sunday-Monday...The next wave moving across southern Canada and the
northern plains will be in the Sun-Mon timeframe. Increased chances
for active weather come during this period as long wave troughing
lingers over the area. To the west,ridge begins to amplify and move
into western Canada, which should bring drier weather by the end of
the period and in to mid next week. Cooler air is expected behind
the Sunday wave and Monday could see highs in the 60s in the far
northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

No issues are anticipated for the TAFs. Light winds this morning
will turn more east-southeast through the late morning and
afternoon, and may get a little breezy at KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon