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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KFGF 060019
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
619 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Some thin cirrus over NE ND while rest of the area is clear. Quiet
night ahead. Patchy fog psbl overnight, but boundary layer winds
will also be increasing after midnight, esp in E ND. So at this
point, impacts and coverage look minimal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

With an H5 ridge moving in aloft and increasing southerly flow
conditions should be dry and unseasonably mild throughout the
period. There is patchy residual snowpack in the Devils Lake
Basin and across upland portions of northwest Minnesota, east of
the Red River corridor, where melting snow will lead to slightly
higher low level moisture and slightly cooler temperatures
overall.

This evening should see light and variable winds, becoming light
and southeasterly overnight with temperatures settling into the
20s. Patchy fog is possible along and east of the red River into
the Devils Lake Basin towards morning, though scattered mid to
upper level clouds will diminish overall radiative cooling
impacts. Saturday should see skies becoming fair and temperatures
warming well above normal as a warm H5 ridge aloft shifts over the
eastern Dakotas. Winds will increase from the south and become
gusty through the afternoon at 15 to 30 mph. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40s in
northcentral MN to near 60 degrees in southeastern ND.

Expect some mixed mid level clouds Saturday evening and overnight
as a weak frontal system approaches. Winds will steadily shift
through the southwest in the late evening and overnight.
Temperatures are likely to remain in the 30s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

There is a chance for one or more upper troughs to move into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest around mid next week, possibly
bringing minor precip-related impacts to the region. However
current guidance continues to trend in the bulk of precipitation
away from the area. Otherwise, possibly record setting warmth is
expected Sunday through Monday.

Sunday and Monday...

Coming out of Saturday night, elevated southerly winds ahead of a
surface trough and mid level shortwave trough may continue into
Sunday, especially if the trough is delayed during the day Sunday.
This potential scenario would allow deep diurnal mixing into an
unseasonably warm air mass tapping into a low level southerly jet
AOA 30kts. This unseasonably warm air mass will allow for daytime
temps to reach into the 50s and 60s Sunday. Ultimately the shortwave
trough will be ineffective at degrading upper ridging that will
rebuild into the region on Monday, thus allowing for another day of
highs into the 50s and 60s. Monday has a greater chance of becoming
record setting as previous records are 40s to mid 50s in terms of
daily maximum temperatures. The shortwave will also be ineffective
at precip production due to a lack of moisture is a chance for
rain and snow mid next week. Details continue to unclear on exact
amounts and placement.

Tuesday through Friday...

Upper ridging begins to push east away from the area Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing southwesterly flow aloft. This allows upper
heights to decrease while introducing some jet dynamics to induce
synoptic ascent over the region. While recent guidance continues to
trend with lower precipitation potential and magnitude to the
southeast, there is still a potential outcome of portions of the
area seeing rain and snow. Best chance for snow will be at night
with cooler temperatures. Deterministic guidance isn`t picking up
on any strong signals of mesoscale forcing yet, but this may be in
part due to the relatively course nature of global deterministic
solutions at this timeframe. Thus overall confidence is low in
placement and timing of precipitation, as well as reasonably high
end amounts. Thus still continuing the message of a potential
outcome of seeing minor precip-related impacts from rain and snow,
and mainly tied to travel. There are not any flood concerns at this
time as recent temps have thawed the top layer of soil, eroded much
of the snowpack, and can soak up moisture due to its very dry nature
resultant from a very dry fall and winter before freeze up. In fact,
the area could use a small drink of water due to current drought
conditions.

Temperatures will trend away from the recent stretch of unseasonably
warm temps. With decreasing heights aloft, temps will trend towards
normal, ie lows in the 20s along with highs in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

VFR expected thru the period. Isolated fog patches overnight,
early Saturday possible. Southeast wind increasing later tonight
into Saturday into the 12 to 25 kt range in E ND/RRV.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle