Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000 FXUS63 KFGF 060019 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 619 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 Some thin cirrus over NE ND while rest of the area is clear. Quiet night ahead. Patchy fog psbl overnight, but boundary layer winds will also be increasing after midnight, esp in E ND. So at this point, impacts and coverage look minimal.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 With an H5 ridge moving in aloft and increasing southerly flow conditions should be dry and unseasonably mild throughout the period. There is patchy residual snowpack in the Devils Lake Basin and across upland portions of northwest Minnesota, east of the Red River corridor, where melting snow will lead to slightly higher low level moisture and slightly cooler temperatures overall. This evening should see light and variable winds, becoming light and southeasterly overnight with temperatures settling into the 20s. Patchy fog is possible along and east of the red River into the Devils Lake Basin towards morning, though scattered mid to upper level clouds will diminish overall radiative cooling impacts. Saturday should see skies becoming fair and temperatures warming well above normal as a warm H5 ridge aloft shifts over the eastern Dakotas. Winds will increase from the south and become gusty through the afternoon at 15 to 30 mph. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40s in northcentral MN to near 60 degrees in southeastern ND. Expect some mixed mid level clouds Saturday evening and overnight as a weak frontal system approaches. Winds will steadily shift through the southwest in the late evening and overnight. Temperatures are likely to remain in the 30s overnight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 There is a chance for one or more upper troughs to move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest around mid next week, possibly bringing minor precip-related impacts to the region. However current guidance continues to trend in the bulk of precipitation away from the area. Otherwise, possibly record setting warmth is expected Sunday through Monday. Sunday and Monday... Coming out of Saturday night, elevated southerly winds ahead of a surface trough and mid level shortwave trough may continue into Sunday, especially if the trough is delayed during the day Sunday. This potential scenario would allow deep diurnal mixing into an unseasonably warm air mass tapping into a low level southerly jet AOA 30kts. This unseasonably warm air mass will allow for daytime temps to reach into the 50s and 60s Sunday. Ultimately the shortwave trough will be ineffective at degrading upper ridging that will rebuild into the region on Monday, thus allowing for another day of highs into the 50s and 60s. Monday has a greater chance of becoming record setting as previous records are 40s to mid 50s in terms of daily maximum temperatures. The shortwave will also be ineffective at precip production due to a lack of moisture is a chance for rain and snow mid next week. Details continue to unclear on exact amounts and placement. Tuesday through Friday... Upper ridging begins to push east away from the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing southwesterly flow aloft. This allows upper heights to decrease while introducing some jet dynamics to induce synoptic ascent over the region. While recent guidance continues to trend with lower precipitation potential and magnitude to the southeast, there is still a potential outcome of portions of the area seeing rain and snow. Best chance for snow will be at night with cooler temperatures. Deterministic guidance isn`t picking up on any strong signals of mesoscale forcing yet, but this may be in part due to the relatively course nature of global deterministic solutions at this timeframe. Thus overall confidence is low in placement and timing of precipitation, as well as reasonably high end amounts. Thus still continuing the message of a potential outcome of seeing minor precip-related impacts from rain and snow, and mainly tied to travel. There are not any flood concerns at this time as recent temps have thawed the top layer of soil, eroded much of the snowpack, and can soak up moisture due to its very dry nature resultant from a very dry fall and winter before freeze up. In fact, the area could use a small drink of water due to current drought conditions. Temperatures will trend away from the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temps. With decreasing heights aloft, temps will trend towards normal, ie lows in the 20s along with highs in the 30s to 40s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 VFR expected thru the period. Isolated fog patches overnight, early Saturday possible. Southeast wind increasing later tonight into Saturday into the 12 to 25 kt range in E ND/RRV.
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&& .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...Gust LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Riddle

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