Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
574 FXUS63 KFGF 130430 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality today, with an additional round Sunday. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday. The main hazards are hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 959 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Smoke continues to push eastward this evening. Once again, there will be a break overnight but there will be another batch tomorrow. Quiet weather continues regardless so no major updates to the current forecast. UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Smoke continues to linger across the region. There is a band of clearing that will occur sometime this evening and overnight but expect additional smoke to come in and last through the day tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...Synopsis... Upper trough on water vapor is pulling eastward into the Great Lakes, with northwesterly flow aloft setting up for tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring not much for precipitation chances but will help shift wildfire smoke from Canada down into our area. Flow becomes more zonal for Monday, which will help decrease smoke impacts but increase thunderstorm chances. Precipitation chances will continue into Tuesday as a cold front pushes down into the Northern Plains. Falling heights with a broader trough digging down into the region will bring some cooler than average temps for the end of the week. Low predictability for precipitation chances as various weak shortwaves move through. ...Smoke tonight and tomorrow... Sat loop shows some thinning of the smoke layer over western portion of ND, and there has been some locations west of the Missouri River seeing visibility improvement. Both the HRRR and Canadian models show some improvements to surface smoke concentration for later tonight into Sunday morning. However, there will be another weak cold front coming down tomorrow and there could be some more smoke coming down to the surface with subsidence. Exact timing of the break in the smoke and then the return is uncertain, but should continue to see unhealthy to very unhealthy air quality through the rest of the weekend. ...Marginal severe chances Monday... Some moisture return for the beginning of the work week will help probabilities for CAPE values over 2000 J/kg increase to over 50 percent Monday afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear is fairly robust as flow becomes more zonal, up to 40 kts. However, much will depend on where exactly the surface boundary ends up, which models have all over the place. At this point think the severe impacts look pretty isolated, but will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The main aviation impact will continue to be smoke. MVFR to IFR visibilities can be expected at times for the entire TAF period. Brief breaks to VFR can be expected as ceilings will remain VFR, but for the most part MVFR should be the primary visibility. A front will push through tomorrow morning shifting winds to more northwesterly, ending the break in smoke and bringing another swath down. Wind gusts behind this front should max out around 25 to 30 knots with sustained winds between 10-20 knots depending on sheltering near TAF sites (more forested areas like BJI should have winds lower). Wind speeds will remain elevated above 6 knots in the evening but will diminish to mainly the single digits to low double digits after 00z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux