Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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677 FXUS63 KFGF 151124 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Some cirrus blowoff from the dying convection over the western Dakotas is trying to move into the central Dakotas. Otherwise it remains clear with light winds. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Temperatures today and Wednesday and thunder chances beginning Wednesday afternoon are the main short term forecast challenges. As of early Tuesday morning, skies across the FA were clear, dew points were fairly low, and winds were light. There were some showers and thunderstorms across eastern Montana, which should fade away by morning...and they may spread a little cirrus into the FA today. However, another sunny day is anticipated, with highs pretty similar to Monday. Winds will switch around to the east-southeast, and may get a little breezy by afternoon across the Devils Lake region. The southeast winds will stay up tonight, helping to keep lows a little warmer. The 500mb ridge axis over the Northern Plains will begin to flatten somewhat on Wednesday, but the 850mb thermal ridge will move right over the FA. Therefore, anticipating the warmest day of the week, with a good majority of the FA topping out in the 90s. South winds look to be pretty windy initially, then as the cold front approaches from the west...winds over eastern North Dakota will turn to the west and northwest. The cold front looks to be fairly close to the Red River by 00z Thursday. These late afternoon westerly wind switches always have the potential to bring late day temperature surges. So the best potential for mid 90s will be over eastern North Dakota. Wednesday afternoon is toward the end of most of the high resolution guidance, but there are some interesting differences showing up. Some members show a broken line of convection developing out ahead of the surface front in the 18z-21z time frame over northwest Minnesota, pushing east of the FA by 00z Thursday. Other members show convection developing along the boundary over the Red River Valley between 21z-00z Thursday. Will be interesting to see what happens with this guidance as the event moves closer. SPC has placed portions of the southern FA in a marginal risk for severe weather during this time frame. The HREF 4hr max 2-5km updraft helicity doesn`t have much for values greater than 150, but it does have low probabilities for values greater than 75, but more so into eastern South Dakota. The SPC SREF 3hr calibrated severe thunderstorm product also favors eastern South Dakota, but does have some lower probabilities into the Red River Valley and the northwest quarter of Minnesota. Models indicate stronger capping now, with 700mb temperatures from +10 to +13C over the FA through 00z Thursday, so thinking this may prevent much for thunder development until late afternoon and evening. A developing low level jet by then may also put a nod toward more nocturnal storms. Did keep some low precipitation chances between 18z and 00z Thursday, but even this may be too much/too soon. At any rate, both the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles show a very low potential for a tenth of an inch of precipitation, so this is not going to bring much rain to the parched areas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 There will be potential impacts related to TS activity Wednesday night and from the weekend into early next week. Also, potential advisory level winds are expected this coming Friday. Wednesday-Thursday...A highly amplified upper ridge will slide into Minnesota as an upper low moves into northern Alberta/Saskatchewan. A cold front will move out of the area Wednesday night, and a few showers/storms are possible early in the period. Friday...Upper pattern becomes more zonal as cooler air behind the front brings more seasonal temperatures for the late week into the weekend. Afternoon highs mainly in the 70s and 80s. An upper wave will move across southern MB and clip our northeast zones, bringing a chance for some SHRA/TS to Lake of the Woods. Friday will also be quite windy as a H850 jet moves across southern Canada and along the international border. Confidence is fairly high as u-component wind values are nearing 99% to 99.5% outside climatological values on the NAEFS climatology. Although Thursday will be quite breezy, Friday looks like the best bet for advisory level winds being realized. Friday night-Sunday...Quiet weather as a short wave ridge moves across in the zonal flow aloft, which will gradually become more northwesterly during this period. Highs in the 70s and 80s continue. Sunday-Monday...The next wave moving across southern Canada and the northern plains will be in the Sun-Mon timeframe. Increased chances for active weather come during this period as long wave troughing lingers over the area. To the west,ridge begins to amplify and move into western Canada, which should bring drier weather by the end of the period and in to mid next week. Cooler air is expected behind the Sunday wave and Monday could see highs in the 60s in the far northwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 No issues are anticipated for the TAFs. Light winds this morning will turn more east-southeast through the late morning and afternoon, and may get a little breezy at KDVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...Godon

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