395
FXUS63 KFGF 260306
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a 10 percent chance for moderate winter impacts,
  and a 30 percent chance for minor impacts, this weekend across
  portions of the Northern Plains. Confidence remains rather low
  at this time regarding specific placement and timing of any
  potential impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

There are still some light returns with the mid level clouds
over northwest MN, but no reports or indications of
sprinkles/flurries reaching the surface where it is lingering.
The more robust showers dissipated as expected after sunset.
Some near term adjustments were made, otherwise the overnight
forecast is on track for variable sky cover (periods of clearing
and then new mid to high clouds), and milder lows generally in
the mid to upper 20s.


UPDATE
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

There are a few high based returns on radar likely associated
with virga or a few sprinkles lingering along the Hwy 2
corridor. However, with the main mid level wave now well to the
southeast, and dry/subsident air in place (based on WV), this
activity should dissipate as low levels decouple at sunset. I
adjusted near term trends for sky and sprinkles, otherwise
forecast remains on track for the rest of the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Shortwave digging from the Red River Valley into MN currently
has had some elevated instability with it and has produced some
fairly vigorous snow and rain showers and even a few strikes of
lightning. This shortwave will exit off to the southeast early
this evening, but another embedded shortwave will move down the
northwesterly flow tomorrow. This particular wave seems further
south and west, and ensembles are not showing much instability
over our area. At this point a few showers may clip our border
with BIS but impacts look minimal at this point. Fairly quiet
into Thursday as heights start to rise ahead of the next, more
significant wave on Friday into Saturday. Flow will become more
southwesterly, with one significant shortwave mainly to our
north on Friday and another just to our south on Saturday. Then
back to west to northwesterly flow for Sunday and the start of
the work week.

...Friday and Saturday shortwaves...

First shortwave coming through as the flow turns southwesterly
on Friday currently is taking a more northerly track.
Probabilities are highest for rain at least during the daytime
hours on Friday, with some lower probs for FZRA and snow
starting to mix in near the international border later in the
day and into Friday night. At this point it seems that the
highest QPF amounts will stay in Canada, but there are a few
outliers that bring some pretty high snow amounts to the Langdon
and Hallock areas. The Saturday system currently takes a more
southern track through SD into southern MN, clipping our
southern counties. Precipitation should be mostly snow in our
area by that point as colder air filters down into the Northern
Plains. Still not a lot as far as amounts with probabilities for
anything over 2 inches pretty low. With the current tracks, most
precipitation falls along our northern and southern borders with
not much in the central counties. However, there is always the
possibility for a scenario where one shortwave or the other
tracks more directly over our CWA. The probabilistic WSSI still
has around a 10 percent chance for moderate impacts and around
30 percent for minor (advisory level).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

High based virga or sprinkles are still moving through
northeast ND and far northwest MN, and as the sun sets this
evening this should dissipate (by 01-02Z).There is a small area
of MVFR stratocumulus that has moved east of KFAR, and shouldn`t
build back over the terminal based on current trends. VFR
conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN
through the evening hours. There is a signal for additional MVFR
ceilings or light fog forming in north central MN towards KBJI
around sunrise Wednesday (clearing with daytime mixing),
otherwise VFR conditions are favored for most locations through
the remaining TAF period.

Gradient is increasing some at the surface and west to northwest
winds 8-14kts are likely, with the higher values at KDVL (most
other locations less than 12kt).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR