Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

No major forecast updates. Updated grids to reflect recent radar
trends. Severe storms continue to be possible over the next one to
two hours as moderate instability, strong deep layer shear, and
strong near-surface vorticity along the surface warm front continue
to promote favorable conditions for severe convection.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Sfc low west of Bismarck at 20z and this will move toward GFK this
evening. Sufficient clearing is occurring in SE ND and temps
rising into the middle 60s. As anticipated there is an uptick in
showers and a few t-storms west of Jamestown. 1000-1200 j/kg cape
expected in this clearing area thru the early evening with HREF
indicating updraft helicity sufficient for strong to briefly
severe level storms with target area being Jamestown, Fargo,
Cooperstown, Mayville, Ada, Mahnomen thru the early evening.
Updated HWO and social media graphic to indicate potential for
strong storms.

Lingering showers will be over NE ND this evening and overnight in

As upper low moves north of the area Saturday sfc-700 mb winds
will turn northerly and there is an area of 850 mb moisture with
likely stratocu which will remain over the area Saturday. Some
clearing likely in the aftn from the west, but not likely to reach
east of the Red until evening. Therefore coolest temps Saturday
east of the Red River with highs upper 50s/around 60. Lingering
shower chance possible Lake of the Woods/Red Lake areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

An active and cooler than normal pattern will continue for the end
of the weekend and into next week.

Sunday through Monday...

A split flow upper level regime is expected to develop over North
America this weekend with a weak troughing over the southwestern
CONUS and northeast Canada. Nearly zonal flow over the WY/MT Rockies
will promote lee troughing and decent warm/moist return flow into
the Northern Plains with temperatures/dewpoints in the 70s/50s by
Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for thunderstorms across
western/central ND during the afternoon Sunday with showers and a
few weak thunderstorms Sunday night and into the day Monday for
eastern ND/northwest MN as an upper level shortwave propagates
southward through the region. Widespread rainfall accumulations on
the order of a few tenths of an inch are most likely by Monday night
per ensemble guidance, but exact locations of the heaviest rainfall
remains uncertain.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Slightly warmer temperatures in the 70s are expected Tuesday
afternoon as skies begin to clear out after scattered morning
showers. Rain chances return for Wednesday as a cold front
associated with a second Canadian clipper low pushes southeastward
through the region. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out with this
frontal passage, but no severe weather is expected at this time.
Drier but cool conditions should prevail for Thursday as surface
high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain well
below seasonal normals with Thursday highs only expected to reach
the mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites this evening
as showers and thunderstorms move through the region. A few storms
could be severe with strong wind gusts up to 35 knots and hail up
to 1.5 inches.

Thunderstorms in the vicinity of KFAR are expected to pass by
00 UTC, but scattered convection will persist in the vicinity of
the terminal. TAFs for KFAR will be updated if additional storms
are likely to impact the terminal.

Elsewhere, showers are expected to continue at KDVL, but will move
out by the 01-03 UTC timeframe. Showers, and possibly weak
thunderstorms, will begin by 00 UTC for KGFK, and begin during
the 01-03 UTC time frame for KTVF and KBJI. TAFs for these
locations will be updated as needed if stronger storms appear
likely to impact the terminals.




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