565
FXUS63 KFGF 082341
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for impactful weather over the next 7 days is
  low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Continued very quiet conditions under mostly clear skies. Temps
still in the 70s and 80s across most of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

...Synopsis...

500mb ridging will push slowly east and flatten over the next
few days. There has been some high thin smoke along the eastern
edge of the FA today, but that will stretch and thin overnight.
As the ridge pushes east and begins to flatten, more high thin
smoke will push from eastern Montana toward this FA Monday into
Tuesday. Not entirely sure how much this smoke will affect
things, other than appear to be like a cirrus layer. Models are
not showing much surface smoke, and there hasn`t been any
reported at the surface over eastern or central Montana today.
It is also hard to see on visible satellite imagery during the
mid-day period, so until sunrise or sunset, its thickness is
hard to judge. If it was a thicker layer, it could potentially
result in slightly cooler highs. At this point, am not thinking
it will do that, but will keep an eye on it.

Other than smoke, it continues to look very mild. 850mb
temperatures may be a degree or so warmer on Monday, with the
same trend into Tuesday. With this 850mb ridging shifting into
our south/southeast FA even into Wednesday, Wednesday could be
the warmest day for some areas. There is a weak shortwave that
will cross the FA Tuesday, but it continues to look moisture
starved. It may bring some virga, but will hold off on any
isolated shower mention for now. The next shortwave and any
chance of precipitation looks to be Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Even high level smoke
has mostly moved east or so far stayed west of the forecast area for
the moment. Winds that are southwesterly around 10 kts at KFAR and
KBJI will become light and variable, then pick up out of the
southeast around 8 kts by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon