Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
943 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Issued at 937 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

First wave of precipitation moving west around the developing
upper low over central MN is over NE ND thru NW MN...generally
along and north of Bemidji to Grand Forks to Devils Lake line.
Canadian radars indicate widespread snow north of the border as
well. Temps have fallen a couple degrees and now in the 27 to 34
degree range in the snow area with north winds. I dont forsee a
rise in temps in the snow area today with the north winds. Will
watch for impacts on roads. Road temps around 32/33 attm and so
far snowfall rates not enough to overcome melting on main traveled
highways. But will need to watch areas along the Manitoba border
as colder air there. Travel impacts will increase tonight into
Tuesday as additional snow moves around the upper low.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Light snow is being reported along the International Border this
morning, with additional light snow at various sites in central
North Dakota. Temperatures have fallen to near freezing in these
areas with middle 30s across the central Red River Valley into
west-central Minnesota. Overall, the forecast remains on track as
this complex H5 occlusion takes shape and pushes across the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Near to short term impacts are likely across the forecast area, as
rain and snow work through the region today through Tuesday.
Accumulating snow is expected as early as midday across the northern
Red River Valley and into the Devils Lake Basin. This will slowly
push southward through the afternoon and evening, with snowfall
impacting much of the area by midnight.

A negatively tilted trough is in the process of closing off into an
H5 low this morning. This complex evolution will bring precipitation
to the area, first as rain, then changing to snow as colder air is
pulled into the system from the north. This change over is expected
to occur late this morning in the Devils Lake Basin and along the
International Border, gradually working southward into eastern North
Dakota by mid-afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the lower
to middle 30s from the Red River Valley westward, with middle to
upper 30s to the east. Most of the forecast area is expected to fall
below freezing by 00Z or shortly thereafter. As such, travel
difficulties are possible in areas with a longer exposure to the
colder temperatures, specifically from the International Border
southward into the Red River Valley and points westward. To the
east, a slightly later change over to snow is expected. Initially,
warm ground temperatures will inhibit accumulations.

For Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures fall well into the 20s
with upper teens in the Devils Lake Basin. Snow is expected to
continue, with our best chances for accumulations expected during
this time as surface temperatures fall below freezing. There is
still a bit of run to run variability regarding snowfall totals, but
QPF values have remained rather close across the last several runs.
Liquid equivalents range from 0.25 inch for the southern Red River
Valley, to just over 1.25 inches near Lake of the Woods. Snowfall
totals will heavily depend upon how quickly the change over occurs
and how quickly the colder air modifies ground temperatures enough
to allow snowfall to accumulate. As of the current forecast, amounts
are ranging anywhere from 1-2 inches in the southern Valley to near
6 inches at the International Border.

Precipitation chances wind down Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
as the slow-moving upper low tracks eastward. Snow is expected to
end prior to sunrise, with temperatures remaining in the lower to
middle 20s from the Red River Valley westward. To the east, a faster
recovery is expected, as we will start the day in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low finally begins to wobble away
from the area by the middle of the week, leaving north winds and
weak surface high pressure. Precip should be drying out and clouds
decreasing, although temperatures will remain on the cooler side of

Friday through Sunday...There continue to be signs of yet another
cut off low somewhere over the region on Friday. The deterministic
ECMWF is stronger than the GFS, and breaks out a decent amount of
precip for the end of the week. The rest of the ensemble, including
ECMWF members, are less bullish on precip, and there isn`t any
strong wet signal in the M or R climate. Will continue to keep
fairly low POPs and light QPF for now, and will monitor. Temps will
remain below average but will be on a slow warming trend into the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

IFR conditions prevail this morning at KGFK and KFAR with MVFR
CIGs elsewhere. Light rain begins this morning, but will gradually
transition to snow as colder air works into the area. For KGFK and
KFAR, this transition could change back to rain this afternoon.
East of the Red River Valley, at KBJI and KTVF, the transition to
snow will occur later this afternoon, with mostly rain expected
during much of the day. KDVL will see mostly snow today, with
light rain possible only during the morning hours. Low ceilings
and visibility will keep conditions IFR to LIFR through much of
the TAF period.



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