Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 040759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
259 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Clear skies prevail this morning with temperatures in the 50s across
much of the area. A shortwave H5 ridge is set to bring slightly
higher temperatures to the region today, with highs expected to
reach the middle to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. This ridge
will become cut off by westerly to southwesterly H5 winds across the
northern and central Plains.

Heading into Wednesday, a shortwave is expected to form along the
flow and bring thunderstorm chances back into the area. The current
analysis keeps better instability to our west; however, CAPE of up
to 1500 J/Kg and modest shear will be enough to allow a strong storm
or two to  develop, mainly along and west of the Red River Valley.
Additionally, with the overhead passage of lower heights, we briefly
stand the chance for funnels from mid-morning Wednesday through
around mid-afternoon. The highest rainfall totals are expected to
occur from the southern portions of the Devils Lake Basin southward
into the James Valley and will generally be around one half inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

A 500mb short wave will be exiting the FA Wednesday night.
Therefore, for Thursday into most of Friday, ridging shifts into the
Northern Plains. The NBM has kept this period dry, while some
individual model runs (EC/GFS) show some light precipitation over
the FA during peak heating Thu/Fri. There is warm advection both
days, which these models may be creating light precipitation from.
Will stick with the dry solution for now. Thursday highs should
remain pretty close to normal, while Friday may be the warmest day
of the long term (mid-upper 80s). GEFS plumes show the warmest 850mb
temperatures Friday as well.

A brief shot of southwest flow at 500mb sets up Friday into
Saturday. Individual model runs have gone back and forth on the
potential for a short wave/storms to ride out of the western Dakotas
Friday night into early Saturday (into this FA). Last night`s runs
looked weaker with this feature, while tonight`s runs looks stronger
again. Either way, these storms would fire to the west during peak
heating, and transition eastward toward this FA in the Friday
evening time frame. This would favor stronger storms to the west,
and a weakening trend to them as they transition into our western FA
during the mid to late evening. During the overnight period, as they
move into the Red River Valley or the northwest quarter of
Minnesota, they would weaken even more.

For the rest of Saturday through Monday, a 500mb trough looks to
slide across Canada, keeping the FA in a fairly zonal flow.
Confidence is not very high in regard to precipitation chances
during this time frame, although Sunday looks a tad better at this
point. Plenty of time to watch this yet. Highs Saturday through
Monday (middle 80s) should remain slightly above normal (lower 80s).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period. Surface high
pressure over the area will keep winds calm outside of a southerly
10 kt wind building at KDVL Tuesday after 15 UTC. There is a non-
zero chance of some shallow ground fog between 10-13 UTC for all
sites excluding KDVL, although left mention out given the very
small chances. SKC will persist throughout the night and Tuesday
morning before high level clouds migrate in from the west. Some
increasing chance for

-SHRA and/or
-TSRA encroaches from the west after the TAF period late Tuesday.



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