Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Sill monitoring trend regarding lake effect/enhanced snow areas
near our big lakes, but so far no reports of specific impacts.
Short range CAMs still not reflecting trends on radar or showing
strong signal for more than light amounts even where they show
snow showers. Elsewhere in our CWA, there have been sporadic
reports of flurries and where clearing has taken place cumulus has
developed under cold pool. Main change during this update was to
expand mention of flurries for the afternoon period, otherwise
forecast appears on track with minimal impacts expected.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

While wave responsible for light snow in our south continues to
transition south and east we continue to see narrow lake effect
streamers off Devils Lake orientated with moist northwest BL flow.
In our east where there is less radar coverage we can see some
lower lake effect clouds on GOES satellite ahead of main area of
stratus. Window for observing this will close as the stratus
overspread this, but this matches ideas of lake effect snow on our
larger lakes due to cold air aloft and favorable flow. No reports
of accumulation as these are in very isolated/rural areas, but
would not be surprised if there wasn`t a dusting. With less
confidence in clearing it`s hard to gauge how intense any snow
will actually be (flurries vs light accumulations). Only high
resolution model signal is for downstream of the Red Lakes (very
light), but still around an inch through this evening can`t be
ruled out if a more intense band of snow were to linger long
enough downstream of our larger lakes (Devils, Lake of the Woods,
Red Lakes). I adjusted forecast to reflect current trends. Will
mention in HWO as well.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Radar returns have been showing up over the past several hours to
the southeast of Devils Lake, indicating a narrow band of lake-
effect snow. Added a mention of this to the forecast through much
of the morning and into the afternoon with the expectation that
this activity will likely be light and intermittent. As winds
become more northwesterly in NW Minnesota, we will see this
pattern take shape downstream of Upper and Lower Red Lake as well
as Lake of the Woods.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

The upper shortwave and associated FGen axis continues working
southeastward this morning. The best lift and precipitation
chances remain well south of the CWA, with only light snow and
flurries being observed across mainly the I-94 corridor and areas
to the south. Although much of the snowfall remains rather light,
minor travel impacts are possible along area roadways.

Light snow moves south through the morning hours, with only partial
clearing expected through the late afternoon. Breezy northwest winds
are expected, especially for the Devils Lake basin, where we will
see 15 to 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to near 30 mph. For
tonight, high pressure sinks southward into western South Dakota,
with winds calming a bit, but shifting around and becoming westerly.
This will potentially have an effect on our overnight lows; however,
we still expect lows generally in the single digits to lower teens
as skies clear through the overnight period. Radiational cooling
conditions are not favorable, however, CAA remains rather strong out
of western North Dakota. It is worth noting, that the high
resolution and short range ensemble guidance hint at slightly
warmer overnight lows.

Breezy conditions continue once more across the region on Monday
with clear skies and well below average afternoon highs in the 20s.
Winds will continue to shift through the day, becoming southwesterly
by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Good confidence in the extended time frame with respect to a period
of dry and warmer but still continued below normal weather pattern.
With cutoff 500mb low over the SW US to start the extended time
frame Tuesday will see split flow aloft across the northern plains.
This will keep the impactful precip storm track well south across
the central and southern plains this week with the northern stream
the one to watch. Ensemble guidance suggests a clipper system will
move across central Manitoba Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
clipper will bring a slight chance for rain or snow to areas along
and north of Hwy2 and is the only precip chance for the week for the
FA. Will see southwesterly SFC flow bring warmer moderating temps to
the region ahead of this system Tuesday with temps climbing into the
mid and upper 30s. This warmer trend will continue into the rest of
the week as 500mb rising heights from western conus ridge expand
over the northern plains. Temps will climb into the 40s for daytime
highs Wed with westerly SFC winds and then again to end the week and
into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

VFR conditions continue to prevail across most of eastern ND and
northwest MN, however there are pockets of MVFR ceilings that have
impacted mainly northwest MN. There are also very light snow
showers moving through the region, with very brief reports at
terminals. Main snow chances still near Devils Lake.



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