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000
FXUS63 KFSD 242354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Quiet conditions continue across the region, with latest
observations showing mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

As alluded to in the previous discussion, expect a sfc cold front to
advance eastward this afternoon, causing showers and storms, a few
of which could become severe, to be possible this evening and into
the overnight period. With southerly flow in place, certainly have
enough warm/moist air in place to fuel instability - as most
guidance has roughly 2500-3500 J/kg of CAPE. That being said, still
remain relatively lacking when it comes to shear, with soundings
consistently showing winds ~20kts from the sfc to near 500 mb. As a
result, will likely see storms struggle to organize. Nonetheless,
with enough instability in place, still believe the atmosphere
remains primed enough to support the development of a few single or
multicell storms west of I-29 after sunset, which will be capable of
producing ping pong ball sized hail and gusts as high as 70 mph. As
the front continues to propagate eastward, may see these storms try
to develop into a line. At this time, believe the chances for seeing
a strong linear feature or bowing segment will remain just north of
our area along the ND/MN border. However, if things were to organize
enough across our area, do think it`s worth noting that the primary
hazard would then become more focused on damaging winds. Thus, with
the greatest severe threat expected to occur during the overnight
period (9 PM to 5 AM), we strongly encourage you to have multiple
ways to receive warnings, in the event that storms do become severe!

Otherwise, look for dry conditions to gradually return from west to
east near daybreak Saturday as the aforementioned cold front departs
the region. Northwesterly winds behind the front will also become
quite breezy, with gusts between 25 to 35 mph possible through the
afternoon. As a result, should see notably cooler temperatures
prevail across the region - with highs currently forecast to only
rise into the 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Look for cooler conditions to continue Sunday, as highs remain in
the 70s. Dewpoints will also be quite pleasant, with values largely
in the 40s, which coupled with breezy northwesterly winds will be a
welcomed reprieve from the heat and humidity experienced earlier
this week.

Heading into the new week, expect temperatures to slowly moderate
back into the 80s to low 90s with the aid of southerly flow. Upper
level ridging over the western CONUS will slowly drift eastward
during this time, causing highs to once again rise into the upper
80s to upper 90s by mid week. Otherwise, look for unsettled weather
to return by the end of the period as an upper level trough ejects
eastward across the central CONUS. Still have quite a bit of time to
narrow in on the specific details though, so have opted to leave
model blend of PoPs as is until higher confidence can be achieved.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing in central SD at the start of this
period. These storms, along with addtional development in Nebraska
this evening, are expected to progress east/northeast across the
forecast area through 12Z-14Z Saturday. Strong/gusty winds the
primary threat. Tried to narrow down a few hour window for each
TAF location, except for KSUX which may be impacted by multiple
rounds of storms overnight. Aside from any gusty winds, MVFR-IFR
ceilings/visibility will accompany the increasing rain chances,
and lower ceilings may linger for a few hours after the storms
slide east.

After the storms exit Saturday morning, look for increasing
northwest winds, with gusts 20-30kt likely by late morning/midday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...JH