


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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053 FXUS63 KFSD 030855 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 355 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms continue through mid morning. A storm could be severe with hail to half dollar sized and wind gusts to 60 mph. - After morning storms, most of today remains dry but hot and humid. Heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 today. Hot and humid Independence Day with heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100. - Chances for showers and storms continue Independence Day through the holiday weekend. Highest chances (45-70%) begin Friday afternoon into Saturday evening. Periodic shower and storm chances continue into next week. - Severe weather risk remains low but not zero for Independence Day and Saturday. Locally heavy rain is also possible. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor or travel plans. - Temperatures generally near to above normal through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 THROUGH TONIGHT: Isolated thunderstorms near the I-29 corridor south of I-90 continue to slide east this morning with WAA and the nose of the LLJ. Have seen a couple storms pulse up overnight with one producing half dollar sized hail (1.25" diameter). Believe these storms are remaining elevated given surface capping based on the sounding data. Elevated instability around 1500 J/kg with lapse rates around 6.5 deg C/km and shear around 30 knots maintains a low end, isolated severe weather risk through the mid morning before storms exit the area. Main threats are hail to half dollar sized and wind gust to 60 mph if a storm pulses up. Ridge axis aloft slides overhead today. Increasing southerly surface flow and WAA aids in warming temperatures above average and increases humidity. Highs in the 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 as well. A few areas approach/exceed Heat Advisory criteria for a brief time, but held off on a headline given uncertainty of dew points - especially if mixing is more efficient. Will allow day shift to monitor and issue if needed. By tonight, attention turns to the lee side surface low pressure moving into the western Dakotas and mid/upper level wave deepening over eastern WY which will move east through the holiday. Lows tonight remain on the warm side with breezy southerly winds and humid conditions. Lows in the 70s. JULY 4TH-SATURDAY: Low pressure strengthens over the Dakotas July 4th, sliding east through the day and into the night. This drags a cold front to the east, into south central SD into northeastern SD by the evening hours in tandem with a mid level wave. Storms should begin to fire in the late afternoon and early evening with diurnal heating and essentially no cap in place. Instability generally around 1700 J/kg near/just ahead of the front. Shear values are low, with most guidance indicating bulk shear near 25 knots. Mid level lapse rates are meager, around 6 deg C/km or less. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible after 5 PM on Independence Day, continuing through the evening hours and into the night as the storms move east. Storms should quickly grow upscale and into a line with shear vectors nearly parallel to the front. Main threat with storms will be wind gusts of 60 mph with DCAPE values around or above 700 J/kg. First area of storms should exit the area by early Saturday morning. However, another mid level wave and surface boundary over the area lead to continued, mainly diurnal, showers and storms on Saturday into Saturday night. Severe risk is low on Saturday. Storms this weekend may produce locally heavy rainfall. PWAT values remain in the top 1% when compared to climatology. Deep warm cloud layers over 12kft and efficient low level moisture transport support heavier rainfall rates. Heat index values on July 4th remain in the 90s to near 100 with temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Saturday looks a touch cooler with lingering showers and storms; highs in the 80s. SUNDAY: Wave departs the area Sunday, with weak surface high pressure building in. Cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and mostly dry conditions. Flow aloft begins to shift more zonal into Sunday night. MONDAY-MID NEXT WEEK: Surface high pressure slides east Monday. Zonal flow continues through early next week with continued weak waves through the pattern. Northwesterly flow returns by Wednesday as ridging builds to the west. A more defined mid level wave moves through the Plains mid week. Periodic showers and storms are possible but confidence is low in timing of precip given mostly weak forcing with waves and timing differences in models. Temperatures largely near to above average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance of very isolated showers/storms through about sunrise, with the best chances (20-25%) in southwest Minnesota into adjacent parts of northwest Iowa and east-central South Dakota from roughly east of a KMDS to KSPW line. Chances for impacts to the TAF sites are even lower, 15-20% at KFSD and <10% for KSUX and KHON. Storm development will need to be monitored tonight for any changes. Otherwise, things are dry through the period. Winds will be fairly light tonight out of the east-southeast. Winds pick up Thursday afternoon and turn more southerly with time. Some spots west of the James River could see some afternoon/evening gusts up to 25 kts, otherwise up to 20 kts or less elsewhere. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...Samet