756
FXUS63 KFSD 151128
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
628 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More seasonable temperatures will continue for the rest of the week
  with highs mainly in the 70s to 80s expected.

- Scattered showers will return to the area by late afternoon.
  While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of
  lightning and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph will be
  possible.

- More concrete shower and thunderstorm chances (40%-70%) will
  return from Tuesday night into Wednesday. While severe weather
  is not expected, gusty winds to 50 mph will be possible with
  this developing activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

More seasonable conditions expected today as highs peak in the mid
to upper 70s and low 80s across the area. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track for scattered showers to return to the areas by
late afternoon as a weak trough and cold front swing through. While
severe weather is not expected, pockets of moderate rainfall and
strong wind gusts between 40-50 mph will be possible with some
activity. Nonetheless, should see most of this activity exit our
area around midnight giving way to quieter conditions. Lastly,
should see the seasonable temperatures carry over into the overnight
hours with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will diminish this evening with light winds expected
through the night. This should allow for solid radiational cooling,
with Monday morning temperatures bottoming out in the 40s in most
spots.

A quick moving system will move through the area on Monday which
will bring about gusty winds again, with a few gusts around 30 mph
possible. Model soundings continue to indicate weak surface based
instability, mainly late afternoon into the evening. This will bring
about the threat for a few showers, possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. While severe weather is not expected, a nice inverted
v sounding suggests some stronger winds gusts, likely 40 to 50 mph.
The better chances for these gusty winds should be near and
northeast of a Huron to Spencer IA line.

The models continue to bring through the next system of interest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm advection increases Tuesday night
ahead of the wave with mid level lapse rates increasing to about 7.5
degrees C. This may lead to some elevated showers or a very isolated
thunderstorm. Weak instability still appears to be a limiting factor
for development. By Wednesday afternoon this system is blowing by
and severe chances appear to be pretty low. However, similar to
Monday some weak surface based instability with a dry sub cloud
layer and a strong westerly unidirectional wind could lead to gusty
winds with any afternoon or evening shower that could develop,
possibly gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

Thursday and Friday look generally dry and pleasant with highs
Thursday into the 70s and Friday mostly in the 80s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns for the weekend but
for now confidence is low to moderate on location and timing. Some
hints that the better chances may reside across Nebraska. Otherwise
temperatures remain seasonally mild.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a
look at satellite imagery, high-level cirrus continues to
progress through the area this morning. Main aviation concern
moving forward will be the developing showers this afternoon
and evening. Decided to throw PROB30 groups into each TAF site
to narrow down timing a bit. Might have an isolate MVFR cig or
vsby depending on if moderate showers (RA) can develop.
Otherwise, light and variable winds this morning will become
increasing northwesterly winds through this evening with gusts
up to 35 mph expected to end the TAF period.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05