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000
FXUS63 KFSD 232318
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
518 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Upper level trough axis continues to sit overhead as of mid
afternoon with the mid level cut off low slowly sinking south. This
has continued to provide broad lift to the region and thus on and
off light wintry precipitation. Forecast soundings continue to
indicate a bit of a dry and warm layer around the 6-7 kft range,
which depending on how saturated it is, has kept precipitation type
flipping between light snow and freezing drizzle. While this layer
does appear to saturate a bit by later this afternoon, we begin to
loose saturation from aloft by this evening, keeping the potential
for periods of light freezing drizzle within the broader light snow.
Any remaining precipitation looks to taper off after the midnight
hour, perhaps closer to daybreak over our far southeastern counties.

Dense fog from earlier this morning has generally thinned, although
visibilities are still in the 1 to 5 mile range for most locations.
Boundary layer moisture remains fairly high into the overnight
hours, particularly in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. This area is
also highlighted by the highest SREF probabilities with a chance for
localized dense fog to return.

Cloud cover looks to be tough to shake for Friday so not a whole lot
of change in temperatures. High temperatures look to top out in the
mid to upper 20s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Fairly quiet first half of the weekend gives us a quick break as
surface high pressure works back into the region in addition to a
shift to weak mid/upper level ridging. A handful of shortwaves and
lows could bring some precip chances to the region for the end of
the weekend and again next week, but confidence remains low for both
opportunities.

For the first potential shot of precip late Saturday night/early
Sunday, a couple of models hint at an upper shortwave and surface
low skirting the International Border before dropping across
southeastern ND and northeastern SD. Models also hint at a
corresponding boundary working through the area Sunday. However,
models seem to hold on to drier air. With the nature of the low/wave
moving through, think that any precip would be light and fairly
quick moving. Given this and lower confidence, will hold out on the
mention in the forecast for now.

The second, and seemingly slightly better shot of light precip,
begins late Monday and continues through the middle of next week. A
series of surface lows and upper shortwaves work around our forecast
area. However, there is still a bit of model difference in the
timing and tracks of the systems, but have slightly more confidence
(albeit still low confidence) in mid-week precip chances. NBM did
have some slight pops in the forecast, and with more models hinting
at this, chose to keep the blend as is.

Through the extended period, high temperatures look to remain fairly
close to climatological averages. With most folks seeing highs near
or above freezing, do expect some snow melt across the area. Lows
will remain fairly mild and above average for late January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 503 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Light snow with periods of freezing drizzle from the Interstate
29 corridor and eastward will slowly diminish from west to east
overnight. With the light precipitation and fog, visibilities will
be slow to improve through the evening, but may have some
improvement later tonight - though confidence is low with abundant
low level moisture across the area. Moderate northwesterly winds
early this evening will become light tonight into Friday. IFR
ceilings will hold through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...SG
AVIATION...JM