034
FXUS65 KGGW 100843
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
243 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A cold frontal passage today brings more seasonal temperatures
through the weekend and a slight chance for showers tonight.

2) A warming trend and dry conditions are likely early next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Winds are switching over to the northwest this morning and will be
gusty at times today behind a cold front that will lead to a
downward trend in temperatures through the weekend. This front
will also aid in clearing out smoke aloft over the area. A
shortwave disturbance this evening justifies a low (10-20%) chance
for light showers south of the Missouri River. Some locations
will likely see their first freeze of the season on Sunday
morning. However, the consensus among ensemble members is trending
warmer than previous runs for early next week as some ridging
returns while the dry pattern continues.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for the overall dry pattern over the
next week with medium confidence on the extent of ridging and
rising temperatures early next week. The base forecast follows
this thinking well for now.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: There is high confidence for dry conditions with
broken mid level clouds throughout the TAF cycle. A cold frontal
passage this morning will work to clear out wildfire smoke from
the area that has produced slight visibility reductions.

WINDS: Northwest at 10-20 knots, becoming light and variable this
evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow