Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 230446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1046 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 837 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

A couple of convective bands across mid/western TN are moving SE
along/just ahead of a cold front located from KY into the Mid
South region. While low level instability remains limited, Bulk
Shear values are near 50kt. This elevated shear profile is likely
mixing with a low level jet around 40-45kt and it`s reasonable to
suggest enough elevated instability may be in place to allow some
of this wind to reach the sfc, as these convective bands continue
to move southward. Some cold pooling aloft is also translating
into Wet Bulb Zero heights near 8K ft, which may allow for some
small hail provided there are any sustained updrafts within these
lines of showers/tstms. This convection should move into southern
mid TN/NW AL within the next couple of hrs and continue thru the
remainder of the area into the overnight hrs. Outside of a few
embedded stronger storms, brief heavy rainfall is possible with
these passing convective lines, although total QPF looks to be
around one quarter/one half inch. Rainfall should then taper off
to the SE heading into the early morning period Fri following the
passage of the front. Slightly cooler air behind the front should
allow for lows early Fri falling into the upper 40s/near 50F.


(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Sunshine and not very cold air behind the front should allow
highs to still reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations
on Friday.

Colder air will definitely move south Friday night into Saturday,
as a clipper system currently stretching from the Ohio Valley
west into Nebraska and Kansas moves southeast and through the
area. Not expecting much cloud cover with that clipper system. Low
temperatures still look to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s on
Friday night.

With the strongest cold air advection expected on Saturday (despite
abundant sunshine - except in southern middle Tennessee/NE AL),
highs should only make it into the upper 40s to mid 50s primarily.

The coldest night looks to be on Saturday night/Sunday morning, as
clear skies and light winds are expected. Temperatures look to
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area.


(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

This quickly transitions into a much warmer pattern Sunday night
into Monday, as zonal flow aloft develops and southwesterly low
level flow develops over the area ahead of a large, strong area
of low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest. This large area of
low pressure and its associated frontal boundary move east into
the Mid-Mississippi valley area towards mid-week, maybe into
northern ALabama, depending on which guidance you believe. Severe
weather potential doesn`t look quite as good as it did a few days
ago with this system this far east, but that could change. Either
way, some rainfall and thunderstorm activity will return early
next week. Along with some much warmer conditions with highs
climbing into the lower to mid 70s at least (maybe 75 to 80 degree
range a day or two).


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Convective areas/lines are continuing to move SE closer to NW AL
this late Thu evening. These shra/tsra are occurring along/just
ahead of a cold front moving thru KY into the Mid South region.
While cigs remain above 3K ft, this activity may translate into
brief/tempo cigs closer to 2K ft and vis around 2-3SM in/near any
heavier precip heading into the overnight hrs. Lingering shra/tsra
will then taper off to the SE going more into the early morning
hrs following the passage of the front, although MVFR cigs look
to persist thru late Fri morning. VFR conds are then expected thru
the remainder of the TAF period as lower cloud cover diminishes.
Light/var winds will also turn NW around 10-12kt with higher gusts
Fri morning in the wake of the frontal passage.




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