


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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005 FXUS64 KHUN 161926 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 So far today thunderstorms and most of the rain has remained to our north primarily along the axis of higher terrain on eastern TN and KY. Will maintain a low chance (20-30%) for showers/storms the rest of the afternoon and less than 20% PoPs tonight. The main impact continues to be the heat as current heat index values range from 100-105 degrees and could rise a few degrees higher before the day is over. Similar conditions are forecast for tomorrow, and the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include Lincoln and Moore counties in TN, where heat indices could reach as high as 107 degrees. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed and the previous forecast remains on track. Previous discussion: A hot and humid day is underway with temperatures warming into the middle to upper 80s at this hour, with dew points in the middle 70s. Some mixing may lower the dew points a bit this afternoon, but heat index values still look to reach ~105F in the HSV and Shoals metro areas where the hottest temperatures are near 95F. Thunderstorm chances remain low (< 20%), with the greatest chance in our eastern counties aided by terrain and a slight increase in convergence as an inverted trough associated the tropical wave in the northern Gulf swings through GA into eastern AL. With low temperatures only in the middle 70s, and another day of heat index values of 105+ in our western 2/3 of the area, will extend the existing Heat Advisory through early Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances go up to 20-30% Thursday afternoon, but coverage should be limited to go ahead and extend the advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 As the tropical wave moves west into the central Gulf Coast region Thursday night into Friday, deep southerly flow will be induced increasing moisture further into the TN valley. The inverted trough will have lifted north and west of our forecast area, but CAMs and short range models all indicate an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly during the daytime and early evening hours) into the low to medium range. Chances will be a bit higher north of our area due to the proximity to the convergence zone/surface boundary. Uncertainty with regard to the track of the remnants of the tropical system remain into the weekend. However, the westerlies in the Plains transport a shortwaves and/or MCV east-southeast into the lower OH and TN valleys Saturday, keeping at least medium chances of additional showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain will be the main aspect of these storms given weak shear and a very moist profile. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Long range models show mid level ridging retrograding across the Gulf coast through the start of next week. This unfortunately will amount to more of the same for the long term forecast. High pressure will keep elevated dew points and temperatures anchored to the TN Valley. This will amount to apparent temps near and just over 100 nearly everyday of the long term forecast. Likewise, daily afternoon rain chances look to remain in the forecast. Around and along the northern edge of the ridge, NW flow may support MCS development in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley as we head into next week in. We will be keeping an eye on this trend should dying MCS try to drop into our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period aside from any reductions due to possible thunderstorms. Confidence in a thunderstorm impacting either terminal was too low to include at this time, but amendments may be needed this afternoon based on radar trends. Fog is not forecast to impact either terminal at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>007-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096. && $$ NEAR TERM...25/17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...25