Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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078
FXUS63 KICT 170009
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

Dense fog continues this evening across central and east-central
Kansas and will continue into this evening until the easterly flow
comes around to the north. The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended
until 3z.

Shallow isentropic lift and low level moisture is allowing light
precipitation across the CWA. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
place until 12z tomorrow for central Kansas. Freezing drizzle
chances will continue for central Kansas as sfc temps have been
hovering right around 0C today and will fall below 0C overnight.
Locations further south should remain all drizzle due to warmer
temperatures. Tomorrow a wide range of temperatures are forecast
across the CWA, expecting snowpack to hold sfc temperatures to
the upper 30s to low 40s in those areas.

The next challenge remains to be the system progged to impact the
CWA Friday. Some uncertainty remains, the NAM looks to bring in the
precip/cold air faster which if verified could increase current
forecast snowfall accumulations. The GFS is a bit slower and
slightly warmer. GFS is also indicating PWAT anomalies of 3 to 3.5
standard deviations over the CWA from 0-6z Sat. Current snowfall
accumulations remain within the 1-2" across the CWA. Higher
confidence is in the tight pressure gradient behind the front that
will bring strong north winds and much colder air. High temps Sat
will be in the 20s with overnight lows in the teens. Wind chills
have come up from previous forecasts, expecting wind chills in the
single digits and near zero. This system remains offshore until
tomorrow morning, expecting tomorrows model runs to come into
better agreement to augment this forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

Return flow Sunday afternoon/evening will begin to warm us back
up. However, another storm system is looking to impact the region
early Tuesday through Wednesday. Models are having a difficult
time resolving it at this time. The GFS wants to bring in a closed
low with more energy into the CWA Tuesday. The ECMWF looks to
keep a more broad/open trough and is slower. Low confidence with
this system given it is far out in the forecast period and current
model disagreements. Expect changes over the next several days to
this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

LIFR and IFR will continue to dominate the region overnight with
fog/drizzle continuing across south central and southeast KS and
freezing drizzle and freezing fog across central KS where light
ice accretion is occurring now. As low pressure moves east of the
area, we`ll see increasing subsidence and improving flight
categories as we move through the morning hours on Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  46  34  50 /  50   0   0  50
Hutchinson      30  44  33  47 /  50   0   0  50
Newton          31  41  32  47 /  60   0   0  60
ElDorado        33  44  32  49 /  50   0   0  60
Winfield-KWLD   35  47  34  53 /  30   0   0  40
Russell         26  40  30  40 /  30   0  10  50
Great Bend      27  42  32  44 /  20   0  10  50
Salina          29  39  31  42 /  40   0  10  70
McPherson       29  40  32  45 /  50   0  10  60
Coffeyville     38  47  31  55 /  60   0   0  40
Chanute         35  43  30  50 /  60   0   0  50
Iola            34  41  30  49 /  60   0  10  60
Parsons-KPPF    37  45  31  53 /  50   0   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for KSZ032-033-
047>053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...MWM



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