Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202255
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A large mid/upper trough remains situated across the Central Great
Basin and Northern Intermountain region early this afternoon with
rising heights/increasing thickness across the Southeastern U.S.
resulting in increasing mid/upper flow across the Central Plains as
the western Conus mid/upper trough propagates slowly
east/northeastward. Meanwhile, upstream moisture on the LMN 12Z
observed sounding shows that the PWAT has increased to 1.99 inches.
This high precipitable water airmass is progged to remain in place
through early Sunday with values averaging around 200 percent of
normal for late Sep.

Tonight...it`ll be hard to rule out some lingering showers and
isolated storms across the area, especially over southeast KS where
we are progged to remain uncapped within an area of remnant tropical
moisture. A subtle shortwave trough lifting out of the Southern High
Plains may also allow some additional activity to develop into
portions of south central KS. Low pops were maintained through the
evening and overnight hours as we remain within a broad area of
low-level moisture transport.

Sat-Sun...Showers and a few storms will likely be lingering into the
day on Sat, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Better
chances for more widespread activity is expected later in the period
as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches the area. Afternoon
high temperatures will remain below normal across much of area with
limited insolation keeping highs from climbing into the 80s. As the
previous shift noted, initiation of deep moist convection still
looks to be north and west of our forecast area along the frontal
boundary during the afternoon and early evening hours. This activity
will then propagate east-southeastward across the forecast area late
Saturday evening and Saturday night as the entrance region to the
upper jet develops across the region. Often times, this results in
the effective outflow driving the front southward much faster than
progged. While the initial storm development to our NNW will pose
the greatest threat of severe weather, it`ll be hard to rule out
some large hail and damaging winds across portions of central and
south central Kansas Sat evening. Heavy rain will also be a
concern, most likely the primary concern given the anonymously
high PWAT airmass. We are forecasting rainfall amounts generally
in the 1-3 inch range, although 2-4 inches may be possible in more
localized areas across portions of east central/southeast Kansas
which corresponds well to the HREF ensemble max values. The
frontal boundary is progged to accelerate across the area on
Sunday providing a focus for deep moist convection once again with
the threat for strong or severe storms and heavy rainfall ending
by midday across south central KS and by late afternoon or early
evening across far southeast Kansas. As high pressure settles over
the area on Sunday night, strong radiational cooling will allow
low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s for some areas.
We may have to watch out for some patchy ground fog, especially in
areas that receive heavy rain.

Mon...A dry post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Monday with surface high pressure situated across the region. High
temperatures are expected to remain below normal ranging from the
upper 70s to around 80 for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A progressive weather pattern is expected at the start of
the period with a shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies
bringing increasing chances for showers/storms as we move toward the
middle of the week. In the wake of this system, we`ll see another
frontal boundary sweep across the area reinforcing more seasonable
air across the area through the end of the work week with highs in
the lower 80s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Clouds will continue to be on the increase this evening as a cold
front slowly starts to encroach on the region. MVFR conditions
will rule the TAF period but many areas are likely to see some IFR
conditions during early morning and during the day Saturday.
Showers with embedded thunderstorms will become prevalent during
the day Saturday with the heavier rain likely during the late
afternoon and into the evening hours.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  83  66  77 /  30  60  80  70
Hutchinson      69  84  63  76 /  30  60  90  60
Newton          70  82  65  76 /  30  60  90  70
ElDorado        71  80  68  76 /  30  70  90  70
Winfield-KWLD   71  82  68  78 /  40  60  80  70
Russell         69  85  58  76 /  20  40  80  40
Great Bend      69  85  59  75 /  20  60  80  30
Salina          72  84  63  75 /  20  60  80  60
McPherson       69  82  62  74 /  20  60  90  60
Coffeyville     70  82  71  78 /  30  60  40  80
Chanute         70  80  70  77 /  40  50  70  80
Iola            70  79  70  77 /  40  50  70  80
Parsons-KPPF    71  80  71  77 /  30  60  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ052-053-069>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ELM


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