104
FXUS63 KICT 262235
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Returning chances for isolated to widely scattered
  showers/storms through the weekend, with limited severe
  potential.

- Hot next week, with heat headlines likely.

- Potential for showers and storms next week, especially during
  the evening/overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

PRECIPITATION...

Similar to the past few days, cannot completely rule
out a stray shower/storm over eastern Kansas through about 8 PM this
evening, but activity will be quite isolated/sparse. Decent
downdraft CAPE will support gusty winds with any core than can
develop.

A weak upper trough stalling over Mid-America will support a
smattering of isolated to widely scattered showers/storms over
eastern Kansas Saturday, mainly during the afternoon through early
evening. Modest instability combined with paltry mid-level lapse
rates and deep layer shear will preclude severe weather, although
locally gusty winds and brief heavy rain are possible.

For Saturday night, could see a few showers/storms get into central
and north-central Kansas as activity rolls off the High Plains late
in the evening. Locally strong wind gusts are the main threat
between about 10 PM and 2 AM.

A few rounds of showers/storms may impact mainly northern and
northeast Kansas each night from Sunday night through Tuesday night,
as shortwave energy rides through the top of the upper ridge, with
some of this activity possibly grazing portions of central, east-
central, and southeast Kansas. Increasing deep layer shear may
support a few locally strong to marginally severe storms.

The upper ridge retrogrades some by mid to late week, allowing
shortwave energy and an associated frontal zone to ooze south into
the region. This could support off-and-on thunderstorm chances
across the region anytime Wednesday night through about Saturday.
The biggest uncertainty at this point surrounds how far south this
frontal zone will get. While widespread meaningful rainfall is
unlikely, pockets of relief are possible. Continued seasonable deep
layer shear may support a few locally strong to marginally severe
storms.

TEMPERATURES...

As the stalled upper trough exits to the east, deterministic and
ensemble consensus supports mid-upper ridging building in from the
west, which will support hot summer heat Sunday through at least
Wednesday or Thursday. Daytime highs in the upper 90s and 100s and
overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees are likely. Afternoon
through early evening heat indices will likely exceed 104-110
degrees for many. Consequently, heat headlines are probable Monday
through Wednesday or Thursday. Model consensus retrogrades the upper
ridge by mid-late next week, which should result in temperatures not
as hot by late next week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Isolated showers and storms will develop over parts of southeast
Kansas this evening but should diminish around sunset. South
winds will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours
on Saturday across central Kansas. VFR conditions are expected
however a few showers/storms could develop over southeast Kansas
again late Saturday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ