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000
FXUS63 KICT 190007
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tonight:
Good upper support for precipitation tonight appears to be lacking
with storms aligned 850mb moisture transport. Satellite and 300MB
forecast show jet lifting north of area at this time leaving
straight or weakly confluent upper flow this evening. Anticipate
storms will wane quickly by sunset. Storms that develop on the
front range should stay north of the forecast area overnight.
Temperatures should remain quite mild throughout the night.

Tuesday:
A few models propagate MCS south into the northeast fringes of
forecast area, with GFS the most agressive outlier. Given
orientation of upper flow and modest low level jet, the far south
trajectories seem unlikely. Increased winds and temperatures a
bit during the day, as front remains well west of the area.

Tuesday night-Thursday:
Models continue to waffle on on track/timing of upper low moving
across the Central Plains. However QPF consensus is fairly good,
suggesting precipitation is probable starting Tuesday night in
central KS and then spreading to southeast KS on Wednesday.
Extensive clouds should limit warm and forecast is likely not
cool enough on maxes. Timing/location is a bit problematic as both
ECMWF/GFS show pronounced differences in their respective dry
slot working around low. Locally heavy rain will be possible with
system but if/where in the forecast area that would be is
questionable. At this time most likely area would be in central
KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Temperatures remain below normal on Friday before rebounding over
the weekend. Wavy zonal flow does not bode well for predictability
of precipitation or temperatures with surface boundary allegedly
meandering somewhere in the forecast area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Aviation concern will remain storm chances this evening and again
Tue afternoon.

Sct storms developed late this afternoon along a mid level
moisture plume that was evident via water vapor imagery. Storm
development was also aided by a weak 500mb trough that swung
across the area. Meanwhile, storms are also developing along the
synoptic cold front that stretches from near KHYS into south
central KS. This activity is expected to stay north of the
forecast area this evening. After the activity early this
evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast dry for now, with
the thinking, the storms that develop along the front Tue evening
will affect the area after 00z. May see a brief period of MVFR
ceilings over southeast KS early Tue morning with these cigs
expected to mix out by the early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  92  70  86 /  10  10  40  50
Hutchinson      75  93  68  85 /  10  10  60  60
Newton          74  91  69  85 /  10  10  50  50
ElDorado        72  89  70  82 /  10  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   73  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  50
Russell         75  95  66  82 /  10  20  80  40
Great Bend      74  94  66  83 /  10  10  80  50
Salina          77  96  69  84 /  20  20  70  50
McPherson       75  93  68  85 /  20  10  70  60
Coffeyville     72  90  71  84 /  10  10  10  50
Chanute         73  88  71  82 /  10  10  10  50
Iola            73  88  71  82 /  10  10  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  71  83 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL