Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221650
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Bottom Line Up Front:  A nice cool day for Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday remain cool but bring a high chance for wide spread rain and
potential flooding.

The short term starts out very quiet with sunny skies and light
winds.  A cool Canadian high pressure system will be over the region
keeping the skies clear.  Mid level temperatures are rather cold for
this time of year and will keep temperatures well below normal.  By
Sunday evening, the high pressure system will push off to the east
and bring the low and mid level winds to the south and southeast.
This will allow moisture advection to begin with some weak WAA.
Unfortunately, the warm front is too weak to allow temperatures to
rise much but PW values will be increasing rapidly. Cloud cover will
become thick as well.  As the warm front to the south encroaches on
the CWA, a mid and upper level trough will come into phase with the
low level frontal system. This will combine to create a wide spread
and persistent rain event across the CWA.  The event is expected
produce significant amounts of rain over the CWA (see the hydro
section for more details).  The bulk of the rain is expected
overnight Monday and through much of the morning Tuesday. This will
keep temperatures in check, keeping them well below normal for this
time of year.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

The extended range remains fairly active to start out with the main
weather system still centered over the CWA.  By this time, the main
moisture axis will have moved off to the east but there will still
be enough instability in the region to keep showers and a few
thunderstorms in the forecast for Wednesday.  Mid level temperatures
are about two standard deviations below normal for this time of
year. The inits have finally started to bring temperatures into
line with the reality of this pattern and have brought
temperatures down well below normal across the CWA. That said,
Wednesday does look to be the last "cool" day of the week. By
Thursday and into the weekend, this long wave trough will begin to
push off to the east and allow ridging to return. WAA will also
return with it and temperatures will start their climb toward
normal. By Saturday, temperatures are likely to be closer to
summer like and could be a few degrees above normal. This ridging
will also bring the rain chances to a close for the remainder of
the extended range.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Mid and high level
clouds will gradually be on the increase tonight ahead of the next
storm system. Chances for showers will increase from the west
Monday, with VFR ceilings around 4000-7000 ft AGL likely.
Showers/thunderstorms will become numerous across the region Monday
evening and night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon will line up to be a
persistent wide spread rain event.  A mid and upper level trough
will come into phase with a weak warm front from the south.  While
the warm front is rather weak and will likely have little to no
impact on temperatures, it does have a strong attendant moisture
plume.  PW values are expected to increase and are likely to be at
least two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.
BUFKIT soundings for both the NAM and GFS show fully saturated
columns up to 500mb and Corfidi vectors lining up nicely.  This
indicates a persistent moderate to heavy rain event that is likely
and be wide spread over the CWA.  The main axis of the moisture has
moved a little further to the west which brings the flooding threat
along and east of a Salina to Hutchinson to Harper line. Areas along
I-135 are currently expected to see the highest precipitation rates
Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  During the day Tuesday, the
flooding threat is expected to move further to the east along the
Flint Hills and then eventually in Southeast Kansas by Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night.  Would expect most areas of the CWA to
pick up around two inches of rain with areas along the I-70 corridor
west of Salina likely to see lower amounts. Areas along I-135 and to
the east could see rainfall amount up to 4 inches in localized
areas, especially along the Oklahoma State Line.  While this event
is not expected to produce torrential rainfall that produces flash
flooding, it is expected to produce a persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall over a wide area. As such, flood prone areas of South
Central and Southeast Kansas are likely to see some flooding issues
as well as river flooding.  A flood watch will likely be needed but
held off at this early stage to allow later model runs to better
refine the affected area.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  49  61  53 /   0  10  60  90
Hutchinson      68  46  59  49 /   0  20  60  90
Newton          67  46  59  52 /   0  10  60  90
ElDorado        67  47  60  53 /   0  10  60  90
Winfield-KWLD   68  48  62  54 /   0  10  60 100
Russell         68  48  56  46 /   0  30  60  60
Great Bend      68  46  56  46 /   0  30  60  70
Salina          69  47  59  49 /   0  20  50  70
McPherson       68  45  58  49 /   0  20  60  80
Coffeyville     67  47  64  57 /  10  10  40  80
Chanute         66  47  62  55 /  10  10  40  80
Iola            66  46  62  54 /  10  10  40  80
Parsons-KPPF    67  47  64  56 /  10  10  40  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...ADK
HYDROLOGY...Metzger


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