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000
FXUS63 KICT 300830
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Main focus is timing/onset of showers today and its exit by early
Tuesday. Initial lift and moisture return will be focused across
the high Plains this morning ahead of the approaching upper trof
moving into the central/southern Rockies. This progressive
feature will move across the central/southern Plains this
afternoon thru tonight, before moving east of the region on
Tuesday. Best forcing will translate eastward across the forecast
area tonight. Instability continues to look rather weak, though
sufficient in the presence of lift for at least isolated mention
of thunder. Even so, a decent but modest rainfall event is
expected with amounts generally to around one-half inch possible.
Some patchy drizzle and fog could linger on Tuesday morning with
clouds perhaps slow to clear/scour out in the afternoon. This will
be followed by increasing southerly flow on Wednesday with
temperatures several degrees above climo again.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Upper trof rotating around the western Canadian upper low will
swing across the northern Rockies Thursday before sweeping
eastward over the northern Plains Friday. This will drive a strong
cold front southward across mid-America. This front looks to move
across central Kansas during Thursday evening where a narrow
corridor of moderate instability is progged just ahead of the
front and dry line from south central Kansas into western
Oklahoma. Despite modest westerly mid-level flow, a strong veering
profile will result in moderate deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kts.
So a few organized, strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible during the early evening. Otherwise, much cooler weather
will prevail in the wake of this front with the potential for
sub-freezing temperatures by early Saturday morning across
central Kansas.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

A storm system over the Southwest tonight will move eastward into
the Southern Rockies early on Monday before emerging over the
Central and Southern Plains late Mon and Monday night. As low
pressure near the surface deepens over southeast Colorado, breezy
southeast winds will develop during the afternoon hours across our
forecast area. Ceilings will gradually lower as we move through
the day with MVFR cigs likely by 22Z across central and south
central KS. Showers will also expand in coverage through the
afternoon and early evening hours with reduced flight categories
and rain showers likely into Monday night. As low pressure
translates eastward across Oklahoma Monday night, winds will
become more easterly across southern KS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low the next couple
of days. Scattered to numerous areas of rain and isolated
thunderstorms are expected late today through tonight. Clouds will
be slow to clear on Tuesday with moderate daytime humidity levels
and light winds.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  45  62  43 /  70 100  10   0
Hutchinson      67  43  61  43 /  60 100  10   0
Newton          67  45  60  43 /  60 100  10   0
ElDorado        69  45  62  43 /  60 100  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  46  62  43 /  70 100  10   0
Russell         64  42  62  42 /  70  90  10   0
Great Bend      63  42  62  42 /  70  90  10   0
Salina          68  44  62  43 /  50  90  10   0
McPherson       67  43  60  43 /  60  90  10   0
Coffeyville     70  47  63  42 /  50 100  40   0
Chanute         70  46  62  42 /  40 100  40   0
Iola            70  46  62  42 /  40  90  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  46  62  42 /  40 100  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...KED