Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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433
FXUS63 KICT 082035
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
235 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Near-normal temperatures tomorrow through next week.

- Most of the area stays dry through next week, with a slight
  chance for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong upper
jet lifting over the Central Plain. This synoptic feature is
providing the forcing for widespread showers and a handful of weak
thunderstorms this afternoon from Nebraska to Texas. MRMS estimates
suggest total rainfall accumulations exceeding 1" for many areas in
south central Kansas west of Interstate 135 as of 235 PM.
Additional rainfall of up to 1" more is possible as the system
slowly progesses to the north and east. This activity will
gradually exit the region by Saturday morning following the
progession of the upper wave.

Cool and dry conditions will follow in the wake of this latest
system as winds aloft resume a zonal/northwesterly flow.
Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year, reaching
the 60s during the day and dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s
at night. The mid/long range deterministic suite pinpoints the next
potential feature of interest in shortwave energy rolling off the
High Plains and into the region on Tuesday. Given a lack of
sufficient moisture upon the arrival of this feature and associated
weak cold/Pac front, limited (if any) precipitation is expected as
it moves quickly through the area. Despite this, low rain chances
(~20%) have been maintained in a line extending from Salina to
Chanute Tuesday night into Wednesday, with better chances for rain
lying east of the Flint Hills. Otherwise, dry conditions look more
likely toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Deteriorating conditions with prevailing IFR/MVFR conditions
developing with lowest cigs expected west of a KSLN-KICT line
this evening thru early tonight. Numerous to at times
widespread rain with embedded thunder expected as the vigorous
low pressure lifts northeast across the central Plains.
Increasing easterly component flow will gradually veer more from
a southerly component by early Saturday morning. Marked
improvement is expected to VFR behind the occluded front on
Saturday morning.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...KED