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000
FXUS63 KICT 241937
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Rather tranquil weather to start the week with temperatures warming
above seasonal climo by Wednesday accompanied by strong south winds.
Mean flow will take on more of a northerly component in the wake of
the departing upper trof tonight through Monday night. A weak
disturbance aloft across the Rockies will move just south of the
area tonight. Another upper shortwave will drop southeast from the
Rockies into the northern/central Plains later on Monday. Any light
precip chances with either system should remain outside of the
forecast area. Weak low level cold advection tonight into Monday
will result in coolish temperatures, a bit below seasonal climo for
daytime highs. Stratocu field should remain prevalent thru Monday
with even modest diurnal heating contributing to shallow steep
lapse rates within coolish and marginally moist low levels. An
upper ridge will build across the Plains from Tuesday into
Wednesday. A significant warming trend will commence in the return
southerly flow with in winds cranking up by Wednesday afternoon
likely in advisory territory across much of the area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Main challenge is movement of southward sagging cold front Thursday
night into Friday. Unseasonably warm and brisk south to southwest
flow will reside south of the front where locations west of the
turnpike could approach 80F for the first time this Spring. Decent
low level moisture return with surface dew points around 60F just
ahead of the front should result in moderate instability too. This
in combo with modest shear and sufficient convergence could promote
a few rowdy storms late Thursday afternoon/early evening across
central Kansas. Cooler air looks to advect south behind the
departing cold front later Friday into Saturday. However there
remains significant differences among the medium range models on
stream separation within the overall upper flow pattern into next
weekend. The ECMWF is deeper with the eastern CONUS upper trof
while the GFS shows a cutoff low emerging over the southwest
CONUS. Despite the differences, they generally support and a
cooler regime across central and eastern Kansas.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This is relatively a quieter forecast than yesterday with
precipitation exiting the area as the low pressure system tracks
to the northeast. MVFR ceilings remain over central Kansas which
is anticipated to continue until roughly 0Z where slight
improvements are anticipated or at least a potential return to VFR
status. Residual moisture/moisture transport and lighter winds
have prompted model variations in the presence of fog. The models
vary on the depth of the drier air; however, it does appear that
there will be a return to MVFR and even IFR ceilings around the
12Z timeframe. No fog was inserted in the TAFs at this time which
might change with the next issuance. Changes may occur depending
on the moisture plume on the back side of the low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Grassland fire danger will remain low to moderate the next couple
of days. However, warmer air and increasing south winds by
Wednesday afternoon will elevate the fire danger into the very
high category across most of the region. Breezy and unseasonably
warm weather will continue into Thursday before a cold front moves
south into the area Thursday night bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  57  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  56  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          42  55  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        43  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         39  55  37  64 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      39  55  37  64 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          41  55  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       41  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     45  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         45  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            45  54  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...KED