224
FXUS63 KICT 180851
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning showers and storms across southeast KS

- Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday with rain chances returning early
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

As of 345 AM Wednesday morning, a midlevel trough axis
continues to slowly progress through the central Plains with an
area of showers and storms across southeast KS. The potential
for severe storms has come to an end with a lack of instability
and shear. This activity will exit southeast KS this morning
with dry conditions expected thereafter. Despite the storms
departing the area, widespread rainfall amounts of 2-6"
continue to result in areal and river flooding. The Flood Watch
remains in effect through 1 PM for portions of central, south-
central, and southeast KS.

Transitioning into this afternoon, a subtle shortwave trough will
makes its way through the longer wave trough. Steepening lapse rates
may be sufficient for a few showers/storms across northeast/eastern
KS. At this point, short range deterministic/ensemble guidance
suggest the greatest potential will remain across northeast KS and
have dry conditions in the forecast this afternoon.

Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the area for
late week into the weekend, setting the stage for drier and
warmer conditions. Temperatures will reach the 90s and near 100
Friday through at least Sunday. In addition to the heat, a
deepening surface trough axis will increase the pressure
gradient Friday through Sunday. South to southwesterly wind
gusts up to 35-40 mph are expected throughout the weekend. The
aforementioned midlevel ridge axis will slowly move east early
next week, allowing the surface trough axis to slide towards the
central KS. This will allow for the return of rain chances late
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Showers and storms will continue at CNU through 10Z with dry
conditions expected thereafter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected with light and variable winds prevailing after 08Z
through sunrise. Northwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt
by mid-morning through early evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ050>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF