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000
FXUS63 KICT 282341
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Widespread rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
continue tonight, gradually exiting to the east late tonight
through Thursday morning, as a deep upper trough moves east over
the southern Plains. Thankfully the temperature profile will
remain warm enough for all liquid precipitation. Anticipating a
sharp northern cutoff to the rainfall. Tough to say exactly where
the cutoff will be, but current indications suggest it will be
generally near the I-70 corridor.

Lift and available moisture are rather strong/anomalous with this
system, supporting hefty rainfall totals, especially generally
along/south of a line extending from Dodge City to Hutchinson to
Emporia to Garnett. Consensus from available guidance supports
widespread 1-3 inches, with isolated 3-4+ inch amounts, highest
generally along/south of the Highway 54/400 corridor. These
amounts include rainfall that occurs before 7 PM this evening.
Will continue the flood watch as-is for south- central and
southeast KS, mainly for the risk of minor low-land flooding.
Meager instability should preclude widespread intense rainfall
rates and associated flash flooding.

Taking a look at raw model output for river forecasts, should see
modest rises on area rivers/streams, with worst-case scenarios
bringing a handful of points to near flood stage, but at this
point widespread river flooding looks unlikely given the
relatively long- duration of the rainfall and dry antecedent
conditions.

Another aspect of this storm system will be stout/gusty north
winds developing tonight and persisting into Thursday, due to a
tightening pressure gradient across the region. This will support
rather chilly wind chills in the 20s tonight into Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

After Thursday, The large-scale pattern supports relatively quiet
weather through at least the next 7-10 days. Seasonable
temperatures in the 50s-60s will return for Friday-Saturday ahead
of a cool front slated to move through the region late Saturday.
However, a major cool down is not expected behind the cool front
for Sunday. Model consensus supports a warming trend once again by
Monday and continuing through at least mid- late next week, as
atmospheric thickness increases from the west. High confidence
that widespread 60s and perhaps a few 70s will be common by
Tuesday. Strengthening lee troughing should also support breezy
south winds starting Monday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

A large area of moderate to heavy rain is expected move over most
of the region during the first 12 hours of the TAF period. This
time around, ceilings do not appear to be the main issue but
visibilities due to the heavier rain and attendant fog. KCNU is
the only terminal expected to have LIFR ceilings for much of the
first 12 to 14 hours. KICT and KHUT are likely to have more issues
with visibility as the rain bands move through the region. KSLN
and KGBD will have some brief bouts of low visibility with the
heavier rain but this is not expected to be a significant long
term issue. KRSL will likely be see the least problems. All
terminals will be dealing with some LLWS issues through the night
as a strong low level jet is setting up over the region. This will
create some decent LLWS issues for all terminals during the
night. The LLWS will abate a few hours after sunrise tomorrow.
This will also be the time the main rain shield will push off to
the south and east. This will allow VFR conditions to slowly push
into he region from west to east during the day tomorrow.

Metzger

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Will continue the flood watch as-is for south-central and
southeast KS, mainly for the risk of relatively minor low-land
flooding. Meager instability should preclude widespread intense
rainfall rates and associated flash flooding. Taking a look at
raw model output for river forecasts, should see modest rises on
area rivers/streams, with worst-case scenarios bringing a handful
of points to near flood stage, but at this point widespread river
flooding looks unlikely given the relatively long-duration of the
rainfall and dry antecedent conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    37  50  31  56 / 100  60   0   0
Hutchinson      37  50  31  58 / 100  10   0   0
Newton          37  49  30  56 /  90  30   0   0
ElDorado        38  48  30  55 / 100  80   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  49  30  56 / 100  90   0   0
Russell         35  50  32  61 /  90   0   0   0
Great Bend      35  50  31  59 /  90   0   0   0
Salina          37  50  31  61 /  80   0   0   0
McPherson       37  50  31  58 /  90  10   0   0
Coffeyville     41  51  29  59 / 100 100   0   0
Chanute         38  49  29  57 / 100  90   0   0
Iola            37  49  29  56 /  90  80   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    40  50  30  58 / 100 100   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ067>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ELM
HYDROLOGY...ADK