Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161915
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A trough stretches from the Hudson Bay to the lower Mississippi
Valley. On the back side of this trough, a return of temperatures to
around 60 degrees has occurred across Kansas this afternoon with sun
shining bright overhead. Winds were under 10 mph making for a pretty
nice day especially compared to the last two.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Challenge: Precipitation chances, location and timing on Thursday

While the morning started out cool, it was not cold enough to set
any record lows. Additionally there were only a few additional
locations that fell at or below the hard freeze or widespread
freeze temperature of 28 degrees. The freeze headlines will still
be issued for a county line of Harper to Sedgwick to Greenwood and
areas to the south and east. While the current forecast does not
have any days that would get this low, it is a heads up in the
event that you see headlines in the future in some areas and not
in others.

A ridge will be in place for Wednesday. This will lead to another
day of high temperatures in the lower 60s. Overall it will be
similar today other than a warmer start with low temperatures about
10 degrees higher than last night/early this morning.

There is a trough that will come off of the Rockies into the Plains
on Thursday into Friday. Slight chances of rain are still
anticipated to move in on Thursday afternoon; however, the better
chances are going to be out west and into Texas. The current blend
of models suggests higher values for the overnight period of
Thursday into Friday for south central and even into southeast
Kansas. It is still shown in the NAM a further west solution
impacting more of the eastern half of Kansas than the GFS which
keeps precipitation focused along the KS/OK border and southeast KS.
Differences in model depictions have been the trend for this system
in terms of precipitation chances which will likely once again be
adjusted with the next forecast issuance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Challenge: Precipitation chances and timing for Friday

Rain showers are expected to stay into Friday morning mainly for
southeast Kansas into the Ozarks. The frontal boundary associated
with the trough is anticipated to move through the eastern half of
Kansas on Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday across all
but southeast Kansas are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s.
Return flow is anticipated for Sunday with a ridge progged for the
start of the work week. This will make for a quiet forecast. A trend
of high temperatures in the 60s will continue for the rest of this
period. Again it is a reminder that one may want to highly consider
attending outdoor festivities throughout the weekend. Enjoy the
sunshine!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
become light and variable overnight.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  64  41  57 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      38  62  39  56 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          41  62  40  57 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        40  62  40  57 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   39  64  41  57 /   0   0   0  20
Russell         37  61  39  57 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      37  61  38  56 /   0   0   0  20
Salina          38  62  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       38  62  38  57 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     38  64  42  60 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         39  62  40  59 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            40  62  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    39  64  41  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham



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