746
FXUS63 KICT 220815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A narrow swath of showers/storms central and north-central
  Kansas early this morning, with a few hit-or-miss
  thunderstorms possible far southeast Kansas today through
  tonight.

- Thunderstorm potential and associated severe weather chances
  Thursday through Thursday night, and again Saturday afternoon
  through night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

EARLY THIS MORNING...A strong mid-level baroclinic zone ahead of
potent shortwave energy approaching from the west will support a
narrow band of showers/thunderstorms progressing east across
portions of central and north-central Kansas early this morning,
mainly north of a line extending from Great Bend to Salina. A narrow
swath of around one-quarter inch of rainfall is probable. This
precipitation should exit eastward into northeast Kansas by 7-9 AM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...Otherwise, a stalling frontal zone will support off-
and-on areas of showers/thunderstorms today through tonight across
portions of Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas, with some of
this activity possibly impacting extreme southeast Kansas. A modest
combination of elevated instability and effective deep layer shear
may support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity over far
southeast Kansas through tonight. However, better chances will
likely remain further south.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...Increasing deep warm advection and strong
moisture transport from the south-southwest amidst shortwave energy
approaching from the west could support increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances across the region Thursday. There`s
quite a bit of model spread, so uncertainty is low on the coverage
of storms. If storms can develop, thinking at least initially
activity would be "elevated" rooted above the boundary layer, with
the strongest activity posing a risk of isolated large hail given
the instability/shear combination. However, storms could become more
surface-based through the afternoon and into the evening with
afternoon heating, although strong moisture advection and the
potential for lingering low clouds may tend to stunt heating. If
storms can become more surface-based, the risk for damaging winds
and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes could materialize later in the
day. The isolated tornado threat would be focused during the evening
coincident with an increasing low-level jet. For Thursday night...a
complex or two of thunderstorms may impact the region, as a strong
cold intersects a dryline and approaches from the west-northwest.
Given the potential for more linear storm mode, the primary concern
with this activity would be damaging winds. All-in-all, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty Thursday-Thursday night, so stay
tuned.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a more synoptically
evident severe weather episode could take shape somewhere across the
Central and Southern Plains, as approaching shortwave energy
sharpens a dryline across the High Plains, amidst increasing
moisture/instability. Model consensus returns moisture all day
Saturday, with dewpoints early morning only in the low 50s.
Consequently, much of the day may consist of low clouds, limiting
heating and associated surface-based instability. All-in-all,
uncertainty remains in the forecast. Stay tuned, as the combination
of long hodographs and potentially strong instability could pose at
least an isolated threat for higher-end severe weather if all
ingredients come together.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A pattern change is expected across the
region through at least mid next week, with dry northwest flow
aloft. This should support mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints
and seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Scattered showers/isolated storms will move across central
Kansas through about 09-10z, though minimal impact to cigs
and vsbys expected. Another area of showers and storms will be
possible toward dawn through the morning across southeast
Kansas, though confidence on coverage is low enough to limit
mention to VCSH for now at KCNU. Light northerly component winds
through early afternoon before veering more from the southeast
by late afternoon and evening.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KED