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000
FXUS63 KICT 061114
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains,
causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the
next couple of days. There is also a trough over both the east and
west coasts. The trough over the east coast will deepen and track
west over the Great Lakes mid to late week. Central and eastern
Kansas looks to remain in the same summer time pattern as we have
been seeing the past few days.

With a weak low pressure system persisting over northern Oklahoma,
the chances for showers and storms look to stick around this
afternoon through the evening, especially across south central and
southeast Kansas but cannot rule out a storm across central Kansas.
Taking a look at the GFS and ECMWF models and a few soundings, the
atmosphere looks to be uncapped and shows some instability and
energy to help the forcing for today`s storm development, but most
storms will be diurnally driven. One of the main hazards in a
stronger storm is locally heavy rainfall due to precipitable water
values ranging between 1 to 1.5 inches. A few isolated strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out with penny sized hail
and wind gusts up to 55 mph, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time. If you have outdoor plans this afternoon
and evening, stay weather aware for any lightning that may be in the
vicinity.

Wednesday looks to be fairly dry across central and eastern Kansas
due to very weak instability and energy in the mid to upper levels
of the atmosphere. A couple of models are hinting at a hit or miss
storm but overall most the region will stay dry. Thursday chances of
showers and storms look to be a bit higher, due to an increase in
instability and an uncapped atmosphere. Also, a weak cold frontal
zone attempts to move in from the northeast acting as a focus for
storm development. Similar to today, a few isolated strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, but widespread severe
weather looks to be low at this time.

Temperatures look to stay near to above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s and lower 90s. Evening and overnight lows look
to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Friday--Sunday...Continued off-and-on shower/storm chances look to
persist through the weekend across the region, as weak upper energy
approaching from the west/southwest interacts with a slow-moving
cool frontal zone approaching from the north. While shower/storm
chances are possible this entire time period, model consensus
supports the highest chances generally late Saturday through early
Sunday with the cool frontal zone passage. As has been the case,
weak flow aloft and poor lapse rates should preclude widespread
severe weather chances, although locally strong storms capable of
pea-dime size hail, 55 mph winds, and intense rainfall rates are
possible given seasonably high precipitable waters. Increased
subsidence along with drier air moving in from the north should
reduce precipitation chances by Sunday afternoon.

Monday--Wednesday...Deterministic consensus supports warming
temperatures, especially by Tuesday, as southerly flow and upper
ridging build in from the west. Model consensus also supports
increasing severe weather potential sometime early-mid next week, as
mid-upper flow increases amidst increasing buoyancy and steepening
lapse rates, along with the potential for periodic shortwave trough
passages. This is still a ways out, so uncertainty remains
high between the various model solutions...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR conditions at all terminals can be expected through this TAF
period. The only reall concern is instability is high enough to
today to develop showers and thunderstorms but this will mainly
be at the KHUT and KICT terminals. Confidence is too low to put
TSRA in the TAF at this point as the activity will be isolated an
is difficult to pint point for this TAF cycle. VCSH was placed to
indicates the six or so hours where the thunder risk will be.
Expecting any thunderstorm activity to come to an end around
sundown today leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the
night.

Metzger


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  64  89  66 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      86  62  88  64 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          86  63  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        85  63  88  65 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  63  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
Russell         86  61  89  63 /  20  20   0  10
Great Bend      84  60  87  62 /  20  20   0  10
Salina          89  62  91  64 /  20  10   0  10
McPherson       86  61  88  64 /  20  10   0  10
Coffeyville     88  64  90  66 /  20  10  10  10
Chanute         88  64  90  67 /  20  10  10  20
Iola            88  63  90  66 /  20  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    88  64  90  67 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Metzger