Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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433 FXUS63 KICT 082035 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 235 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain tonight into tomorrow morning. - Near-normal temperatures tomorrow through next week. - Most of the area stays dry through next week, with a slight chance for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Current water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong upper jet lifting over the Central Plain. This synoptic feature is providing the forcing for widespread showers and a handful of weak thunderstorms this afternoon from Nebraska to Texas. MRMS estimates suggest total rainfall accumulations exceeding 1" for many areas in south central Kansas west of Interstate 135 as of 235 PM. Additional rainfall of up to 1" more is possible as the system slowly progesses to the north and east. This activity will gradually exit the region by Saturday morning following the progession of the upper wave. Cool and dry conditions will follow in the wake of this latest system as winds aloft resume a zonal/northwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year, reaching the 60s during the day and dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s at night. The mid/long range deterministic suite pinpoints the next potential feature of interest in shortwave energy rolling off the High Plains and into the region on Tuesday. Given a lack of sufficient moisture upon the arrival of this feature and associated weak cold/Pac front, limited (if any) precipitation is expected as it moves quickly through the area. Despite this, low rain chances (~20%) have been maintained in a line extending from Salina to Chanute Tuesday night into Wednesday, with better chances for rain lying east of the Flint Hills. Otherwise, dry conditions look more likely toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Deteriorating conditions with prevailing IFR/MVFR conditions developing with lowest cigs expected west of a KSLN-KICT line this evening thru early tonight. Numerous to at times widespread rain with embedded thunder expected as the vigorous low pressure lifts northeast across the central Plains. Increasing easterly component flow will gradually veer more from a southerly component by early Saturday morning. Marked improvement is expected to VFR behind the occluded front on Saturday morning. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...KED