Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 251953
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Currently have a stationary front extending from southeast
Nebraska into far western portions of the OK Panhandle. Surface
low pressure is strengthening over northeast NM ahead of an upper
impulse. Meanwhile, there looks to be a weak warm front or
remnant outflow over northern OK, basically separating the low
70s dps from mid 60s.

Current thinking is that storms will continue to grow upscale
over the TX/OK Panhandles as they gradually push east and
northeast as the evening hours approach. Storms should start to
impinge on western portions of forecast area generally after 6 pm,
affecting areas along I-135 after 8 pm. Feel the best tornado
threat will be southwest of our forecast area, before the storms
congeal into an MCS, with wind and hail then becoming the main
threats. Shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall south compared to
what we had yesterday with the thinking the MCS should stay closer
to the baroclinic zone across southern KS/northern OK and will
also try and dive into the better instability over OK. So feel
the southern few rows of counties will have the highest threat of
additional heavy rainfall tonight.

Also not out of the question a few storms may develop before 5 pm
along the synoptic front over central KS with some agitated CU
showing up on satellite.

Setup for storms looks similar Sunday as it does for today. Storms
are expected to develop first out over far western KS/TX-OK
Panhandles and track east through the evening hours. Storms maybe
a bit more numerous Sun afternoon & evening out west as a more
pronounced shortwave lifts out of NM. While confidence is high
that yet another MCS will affect much of the forecast area Sun
night, also feel that it will be more progressive than the last
few due to stronger mid/upper jet lifting out.

By 12z Mon, upper impulse will be lifting over eastern
Nebraska/western IA with the main upper low rotating across the
Desert Southwest. Dryline/surface trough is expected to extend
west of the forecast area by Mon afternoon. Main question will be
whether there will be enough convergence along it to overcome some
warmer mid level air along with lack of large scale ascent. Would
not be surprised to see a storm or two go up on the boundary late
Mon afternoon, possibly affecting our western fringes Mon
evening.

Main upper low will be lifting across northeast CO/southeast WY by
Tue morning and into western Nebraska by Tue afternoon.
Front/dryline will be more progressive Tue, making it to generally
along the KS Turnpike by the afternoon hours. Storms are expected
to develop along this feature Tue afternoon and push east into
southeast KS by early Tue evening. Severe storms and heavy rain
can be expected with this activity. This should finally be the
last episode of widespread storms from this pesky trough that has
been anchored over the western CONUS for the last week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Front is expected to be generally situated south of KS by Wed
morning which is where the better storm chances will be Wed. Will
bring back some small pops into the forecast for Thu night into
Fri but confidence is very low as there are some differences in
the medium range models. Better low level moisture looks to return
for Fri night into the weekend which will bring back some storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Primary aviation concerns: TSRA, LLWS, low CIGS

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over west Texas as of this
writing. While there remains some uncertainty in the evolution of
the developing storms, there appears to be general consensus that
storms will continue to develop in that area and eventually
propagate NE/E along the KS/OK border, potentially extending as
far north as the I-70 corridor. For now, I have hit the south-
central and southeast KS TAFs the hardest (regarding TSRA
impacts), but this may need to be refined through the evening as
the thunderstorm evolution becomes more clear. Thinking 40-50kt+
wind gusts are likely where the strongest storms track. Some gusts
may reach 60kt with the strongest cores. Hail will also be
possible along with significant reductions to visibility. Low
clouds may linger into Sunday morning in the wake of the TSRA.
CIGs may fall into the IFR category, but confidence in this
occurring is too low to show IFR conditions in the TAFs. There is
some potential for TSRA to redevelop late tonight or SUN morning,
but for now it appears the atmosphere will be worked over enough
to prevent this from happening.

Martin


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Another MCS is expected to migrate out of western KS this evening
into the overnight hours. Highest confidence for heavy rainfall
will be for areas along and southwest of a McPherson, to El Dorado
to Winfield line. This area has the best chance to experience the
MCS while it`s still fairly organized. Widespread rainfall in the
1-2 inch range will be possible in these locations. Hoping this
MCS is a bit more progressive than the one last night which may
limit some of the 3+ inch rainfall amounts. Should get a break
again during the day Sunday, with storms once again moving-in from
western KS Sun night. While additional heavy rainfall will be
possible Sun night, confidence is high in this MCS being more
progressive due to stronger mid/upper winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  63  80  68 /  20  80  20  50
Hutchinson      82  62  80  68 /  20  70  20  60
Newton          80  63  80  67 /  10  80  20  40
ElDorado        81  63  80  68 /  10  80  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   81  64  82  69 /  10  70  20  40
Russell         81  61  79  63 /  20  60  30  60
Great Bend      81  61  79  65 /  30  60  30  70
Salina          83  63  80  67 /  20  70  20  50
McPherson       82  62  79  68 /  20  70  20  50
Coffeyville     83  67  83  70 /  10  60  20  20
Chanute         82  65  82  68 /  10  80  30  30
Iola            82  64  81  68 /  10  90  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    82  66  82  69 /  10  70  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM
HYDROLOGY...RBL



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