Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 071744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Low to mid level moisture transport and warm advection continues to
lead to scattered showers and a few storms for areas over the Flint
Hills and east of the Kansas Turnpike through midday. Expect to see
a continuing downward trend in the showers for the late afternoon
hours as warm advection wanes and increasing warm temps in the
elevated mixed layer build into south central KS.  So expect the
showers to last the longest in SE KS, but most of the activity will
be gone by the late afternoon hours.  Will make some adjustments to
the short term grids/zones to reflect this trend.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Today:
Storms developed early across north central OK and were moving and
developing across south central KS early this morning. So chance
for showers and thunderstorms east of I-35 this morning looks on
track. KICT/KVNX radars have impressive VAD wind profiles with a
40kt low level jet. Low clouds from the saturated upslope boundary
layer flow should dissipate during the morning as winds increase.
Also a small chance that remnants of western KS storms could clip
northern sections later this morning. The gusty and slightly
southwest winds over the western half of the forecast area will
result in a fairly large thermal gradient. Triple digits high
temperatures are possible along western border and with only
around 90 in southeast KS.

Tonight-Saturday:
The winds will likely remain brisk overnight, leading to warmer
overnight lows. Model solutions are split on thunderstorm chances
in far southeast KS late tonight/early Saturday as storms
potentially develop or move around edge of increasing cap.
Temperatures will increase on Saturday as temperatures aloft
increase and good mixing continues. Temperatures in far west will
likely reach triple digits on Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday:
There is a small chance of storms rolling off High Plains and
clipping central KS Saturday night and into Sunday morning, but at
this point that seems remote. Breezy and warm weather will
continue on Sunday, with a slight uptick possible in temperatures.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Monday-Thursday:
A weak shortwave in upper flow will slowly move through the area
Monday night-Tuesday, otherwise weak/slow ridge building aloft
will characterize this period. This shortwave will likely push
cold front into northern sections of the forecast area, with south
extent likely dependent on amount of storms and resultant cold
pool. Location of resultant baroclinic/convergence zone will
likely frustrate forecasters for the remainder of the period.
Models not surprising have a plethora of solutions for when/where
storms will occur, so initialization grids are necessarily
generous with precipitation. That said, for any given point, most
of this period will be dry. Chances of storms are slightly favored
in the northeast half of forecast area during the late
night/early morning period. Temperatures will be highly
conditional on clouds and precipitation, so the forecast generally
reflects median values of the spread of model solutions.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Scattered showers and storms continue to diminish or shift to the SE
of the forecast area at this time, so will only carry some lingering
VCSH for the KCNU taf site.  Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the
rest of the region as a warm elevated mixed layer builds into the
region with gradually clearing skies.  Could see some gusty winds to
25-30 kts over central KS this afternoon.

The elevated mixed layer will also lead to low level wind shear for
most locations tonight, as the low level jet increases.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  75  99  75 /  30   0  10  10
Hutchinson      95  74 100  74 /  30   0  10  10
Newton          93  73  97  74 /  30   0  10  10
ElDorado        92  73  96  74 /  50   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   93  75  97  74 /  40   0  10  10
Russell         96  71 100  74 /  20   0  10  10
Great Bend      96  71 100  73 /  20   0  10  10
Salina          95  75 100  76 /  20   0   0  10
McPherson       94  74  99  74 /  30   0  10  10
Coffeyville     90  74  95  75 /  70  10   0  10
Chanute         89  74  95  74 /  70  20  10  10
Iola            90  73  95  74 /  70  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  75  95  75 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham


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