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000
FXUS63 KICT 150907
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
307 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Main concern is snow and ice accums with two pronged Winter event
today through Monday. Initial isentropic ascent aided by some
frontogenesis/weak instability has resulted in development of
scattered to numerous mixed precip, fine light snow/freezing
drizzle and sleet across much of the forecast area early this
morning. A more focused frontogenetic band of precip may develop
for a time today across the mid-portion of the forecast area,
northeast of the Wichita metro, with a combo of light snow and ice
accums. There is a suggestion of instability, which could augment
precip type to a bit more snow, so have adjusted amounts up a bit
further to the southeast from the previous forecast. The wintry
mix should become mainly freezing drizzle or scattered light
freezing rain or rain, depending on surface temperatures this
afternoon across the rest of south central and southeast Kansas. A
relative lull or break in the measurable precip to just widely
scattered light freezing drizzle is expected by this evening
before the lift ramps up ahead of the main upper trof late
tonight/Monday. Another frontogenetic band of mixed precip to snow
looks to develop across portions of south central Kansas, the
southern Flint Hills into southeast Kansas on Monday morning into
early afternoon. Overall, the main changes to this forecast are
to shift the max snowfall for this event a bit further southeast,
which will lessen amounts along the I-70 corridor and increase
them toward the highway 50 and highway 54 corridors, including
greater Wichita. That said, storm total snow accums are still
expected to range from 2 to 4 inches, though isolated amounts
around 5 inches will be possible. As for ice accums from freezing
drizzle/freezing rain, still expecting less than one-quarter inch,
mainly across south central and southeast Kansas.

Cold but dry weather expected in the wake of this system for Monday
night and Tuesday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Dry weather expected for the latter half of the week. Upper ridge
will move over the area on Wednesday with an upper trof moving
across the Plains/Midwest Thursday night/Friday. Temperatures
warming to a little above seasonal climo.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

**Snow, freezing drizzle, and low clouds to impact aviation
 through Monday**

Latest satellite imagery shows an area of low stratus building
east from western into central Kansas. Surface obs beneath this
stratus have fallen into the MVFR/IFR category across western
Kansas and a similar reduction in CIGs is expected over the next
6-12 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. In
addition, areas of light snow and freezing drizzle/freezing rain
will likely develop during that same time frame. Wintry
precipitation should continue into much of the day Sunday, before
drier air leads to a temporary lull in precip by Sunday evening.
During this lull, I can`t completely rule out some BR development
beneath the lingering low clouds. It should be noted that the
precip type through Sunday afternoon looks to remain mostly snow
across central KS, with predominantly freezing drizzle further
south.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: After a lull in precip Sunday evening, a second
wave of precipitation is expected to develop over western or
southwestern Kansas Sunday night, spreading east through Monday.
Model guidance appears to be shifting the focus of this band south
just a bit which could put the greatest aviation impacts south of
I-70. Stay tuned for updates as IFR/LIFR conditions will likely
occur wherever this band develops.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  23  32  19 /  70  60  60   0
Hutchinson      31  21  32  18 /  70  60  60   0
Newton          30  20  30  19 /  80  60  60   0
ElDorado        31  22  30  18 /  80  60  70  10
Winfield-KWLD   34  24  33  19 /  60  60  60   0
Russell         29  19  34  16 /  60  30  40   0
Great Bend      30  20  33  17 /  60  40  50   0
Salina          30  19  33  17 /  80  40  50   0
McPherson       30  20  32  17 /  80  50  50   0
Coffeyville     37  26  34  21 /  70  50  60  10
Chanute         33  24  31  18 /  80  50  70  20
Iola            32  23  30  17 /  80  50  70  20
Parsons-KPPF    35  26  32  19 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RM