Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191022 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 622 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will dominate the weather for the first half of the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late Sunday into Monday as low pressure lifts northeast from the Gulf coast. A cold front will bring additional unsettled weather midweek, followed by high pressure Thursday. A weak coastal trough may move onshore by the end of the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak mid-level ridging ahead of potential T.S.Claudette and a decent central Carolinas sfc trof will result in gusty SW-WSW winds this aftn and evening. This will likely keep the sea breeze pinned today with max temps likely to reach widespread 90s except 85-90 along the immediate coast. Cirrus shield will dominate the skies thru tonight with mid level moisture later tonight thru Sun. The mid-level s/w ridge axis will weaken tonight allowing moisture basically at all levels to infiltrate the FA. PWS respond from just over 1 inch early this am to around 2 inches tonight thru Sun, even hier as the circulation associated with the remnants of potential T.S. Claudette funnel tropical moisture northward across the FA Sun and beyond. Have POPs increase from SW to NE late tonight, in the low chance range, reaching good chance closer to the coast and likely inland during Sun. Have stayed on the hier side of guidance for tonights mins due to active winds and a slowly increasing tropical air mass. Clouds and potential pcpn will limit max temps Sun only in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Still quite a bit uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday night through early Monday as it will depend on the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 currently impacting the gulf coast. ECM deterministic and ensemble guidance, along with Canadian, continues to a more organized system moving across the Carolinas Sunday evening through Monday morning. GFS however, has PTC3 pretty much dissipated as it reaches our area, with very little in the way of winds or rains. Forecast leans more towards ECM and CMC solution, though not as strong. Gusty southwest winds currently forecasted for Sunday night, with 1-2" of rain through early Monday. WPC highlights our area with a slight chance of excessive rainfall during this time period. Marginal risk of severe weather exists Sunday evening and night as strong low level winds associated with the tropical system create a possibility of brief tornadoes and occasional strong wind gusts. Lingering instability keeps thunderstorms in the forecast Monday afternoon, particularly across SE NC. Precip chances decrease quite a bit Monday night as NVA aloft dominates and mid level dry air briefly moves in. Low temps above normal, with temps Monday around 90 as cloud cover is forecasted to decrease in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues Tuesday as an upper level trough and associated surface front approach the area. Precipitable water values climb back to around 2" Tuesday afternoon with increased thunderstorm chances. Low confidence in timing and strength of trough for a day 4 forecast, but could see a low severe threat develop late Tuesday as shear increases. Front slows down as it reaches our area, lingering near the coast on Wednesday keeping chance pops in the forecast. While high pressure is expected to build over the Mid-Atlantic for the back half of the week, stalled front just offshore with a coastal trough developing will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Thursday and Friday, particularly across coastal counties. Slightly below normal temps forecasted for the long term period. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Time height indicates dry conditions through the column today, with little chance for convection, other than an isolated shower along the resultant. Low level moisture on the increase overnight, with an MVFR ceiling expected after midnight. Southwest flow through the forecast period. Extended Outlook...Isolated convection late Sat night, will become more numerous Sun thru into Mon due to remnants of the tropical cyclone. Expect periodic MVFR/IFR. Convection late Mon thru Wed will not be as widespread but the threat for MVFR/IFR will continue.
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&& .MARINE... Through Sunday: The sfc pg will tighten across the waters today into tonight as the Central Carolinas sfc trof strengthens-some. This will result in SW 15-20 kt today into tonight across all waters, with 25 kt gusts more frequent across the ILM NC Waters, hence the short term SCA now in effect. The circulation well ahead of potential T.S. Claudette to more directly affect the local waters Sun and beyond, with winds having temporarily diminished late tonight into Sun, should increase back to SCA levels across all waters by the end of this period or the beginning of the next. Mariners should be convection-free today followed by an increase in shower and tstorm activity, from SW to NE, mainly late tonight thru Sun. Seas will become more influenced by short period wind driven waves, and will peak in the 3 to 5 ft range this period. An underlying weak SE swell at 7 second periods will continue. Saturday Night through Tuesday... Small Craft Advisory conditions forecasted for Sunday night through Monday as SW winds and subsequent seas increase with passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 across the Carolinas. Southwest winds 20-25 kts Sunday night through Monday night, with gusts to 30 kts possible for Sunday night and Monday. Seas around 6 feet. There may also be potential for a waterspout or two over the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday, but confidence is low. Southwest winds decrease a bit on Tuesday, but remain around 20 kts as a surface front approaches from the west. Seas may linger around the 4-6 ft range Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisory may be extended from Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VAO NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...43 MARINE...DCH/VAO

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