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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 290704
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
304 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will keep a summer like pattern today. A
dry cold frontal passage will occur tonight followed by weak
high pressure Mon. A low pressure system tracking along the
Gulf Coast states late Mon will push across the Carolinas Tue
and Tue night the move well offshore Wed. Weak high pressure
will prevail late Wed thru Thu followed by another frontal
system late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains the dominate feature in the forecast with
another warm day ahead for Sunday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A weak cold front will approach today with some
increasing afternoon cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles
along and west of I-95, but confidence was not high enough based
on short term models to include in the forecast. For most the
only sensible weather will be afternoon gusty winds ahead of the
front, but otherwise no precipitation expected. A little cooler
heading into Monday as cooler air works into the region behind
the front and upper level ridge begins to lessen in strength.
Highs Monday in the upper 70s is still on the warm side of
average for late March.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing clouds are expected Monday night as low pressure
approaches from the Gulf Coast. Showers are probable Tuesday
and Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. Lows
Monday night will fall to the mid to upper 50s with upper 40s to
lower 50s expected Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will move away from the area Wednesday, bringing an
end to the rain during Wednesday with gradually decreasing
clouds. It will be cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night with
highs generally in the lower 60s and lows in the middle 40s.
Fair weather is expected Thursday into Friday with rain
possible with the next frontal system late Friday into the
weekend. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be
seasonable for the time of year with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looking at predominate VFR conditions during the next 24 hrs.
Main concerns for sub-VFR conditions revolves around the
potential for sea fog that may partially move onshore affecting
the coastal terminals late tonight thru midday Sun.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through Monday. Flight
restrictions are possible Mon night thru early Wed due to the
passage of a low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of marine fog possible through the mid morning hours with some
spots getting as low as 1 NM at times for the coastal waters of NC
and SC.  Wave heights between 3 and 5 feet from the southwest at 5
seconds for today and tonight, with seas falling to 2 to 3 feet by
Monday.  Southwest winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times
this afternoon could cause concern for smaller vessels navigating
offshore this afternoon.

Low pressure will pass near or through the area Monday night
through Tuesday night resulting in winds of varying direction at
speeds of 10 to 15 KT with 20 KT winds possible at times. Seas
will run 2 to 4 FT during this period. In the wake of the low
Wednesday and Thursday, N winds of 15 to 20 KT will become NW
and diminish to 10 KT by Thursday. Seas will run 2 to 3 FT this
period with 4 to 5 footers possible nearer 20 NM Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...MK
MARINE...ILM