Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 022005 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 305 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a soaking rain to the Carolinas tonight into Wednesday. Milder and drier weather develops on Thursday before a dry cold front brings another shot of cool air on Friday. Low pressure may develop this weekend with the potential for cool and unsettled weather to the south and along the coast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 2 PM, temperatures across the area ranged from 49 at Southport, NC to 53 at Maxton with increasing high level cloud cover. Latest high resolution model guidance continues to be on track with the previous forecast in bringing a low pressure system emerging out of the Gulf along the coastal waters starting tonight. Rain will spread northward into northeast SC this evening and into NC overnight. Wet weather will continue overnight into Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain rates at times. Rain amounts are expected anywhere from around 0.50" to 1" in southeast NC counties to near 2" for where heavier rainfall may occur in northeast SC counties. Below normal temperatures expected tonight into Wednesday. Low pressure starts exiting offshore and rainfall ends Wednesday night with clearing skies as high pressure moves into the region. Overnight lows will be a little cooler than normal into the mid to upper 30s under increasingly good radiational cooling conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Mild and dry weather in store for Thursday under low level northerly flow behind exiting low pressure system. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. A dry cold front late Thursday will reinforce CAA and drop temps to below normal Thursday night through Friday night. Lows in the upper 30s both nights, with highs Friday in the mid 50s. Increased moisture to the south ahead of a potent 500mb shortwave will lead to increased mid level clouds Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weak surface low over the Gulf of Mexico Friday night is expected to move across south Florida on Saturday aided by 500mb shortwave aloft. Latest model runs keep the low and best forcing well to the south and then well offshore of our area. Kept slight chance pops in the forecast Saturday and Saturday night for southern and coastal areas due to uncertainty, as shift in track could increase rain chances here. Still expecting increased mid clouds Saturday, particularly for NE SC and coastal areas. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s, with lows Saturday night in the mid 30s. Dry high pressure builds in Sunday through Tuesday, with below normal temps Sunday warming to near normal by Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly cirrus through much of the day, associated with the jet stream. Developing low pressure tonight will bring a broad area of light to moderate rain, moving from south to north overnight. Ceilings will lower to near IFR toward morning, with a steady rain. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions will return Wed night and continue thru Fri with high pressure dominating. Another area of low pressure moving by to our south could bring IFR/MVFR conditions Sat.
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&& .MARINE...
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Today through Wednesday night... Coastal low pressure system approaches tonight through Wednesday. Surface wind flow will start in the easterly direction before becoming north into Wednesday before shifting to the northwest/offshore direction. Speeds as high as 15 to 25 kts with gusts towards the 30 kt range will create conditions hazardous to small watercraft and inexperienced mariners, especially beyond 10 NM. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet tonight from the northeast at 6 seconds and from the southeast at 10 seconds, increasing to 5 to 7 feet with several wave directions between 6 and 8 seconds beyond 10 NM Wednesday. Conditions rapidly improve Wednesday night as low pressure system moves further offshore away from the coastal waters. Seas Wednesday night between 2 and 4 feet with some continued varying wave directions expected with NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 kts occasionally. Thursday through Sunday...North winds early Thursday will back briefly to westerlies in the afternoon, less than 10 kts, before a dry cold front drops down from the north strengthening north winds Thursday night. Winds remain out of the north-northeast through Sunday, generally 10-15 kts, with an increase to 15-20 kts Saturday night as a low pressure system passes well offshore. Seas 2-3 ft Thursday through Saturday, increasing to 3-4 ft Saturday night and Sunday. If offshore low passes closer to our area than latest guidance indicate, could see an increase of winds and seas into SCA criteria late Saturday into Sunday. Seas Thursday mix of wind wave and a weakening 2-3 ft E swell. Friday through Sunday dominated by NE wind wave with a weak SE swell mixed in.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...43 MARINE...MCK/VAO

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