Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 071053 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 653 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A chance for storms persists this afternoon and this evening ahead of a cold front. After a brief cooldown Thursday, temperatures will climb back to normal through the remainder of this week. The next cold front will move into the area early next week, and will bring better rain chances Monday. && .UPDATE...
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Added haze for the entire area in line with the currently active Air Quality Alert. Updated PoPs slightly to nudge down afternoon storm chances and move them a couple hours later in the day. Best chance of precip will come this evening with the main cold front, but instability will be limited at this point.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front currently analyzed just north of the NC/TN border will continue to drop southward with a deepening upper level low this morning. As the front approaches the area this afternoon, surface based and mid level forcing working in conjunction with instability will generate isolated to scattered storms. Showers with embedded shallow convection are possible with the main cold frontal passage this evening. Instability gradients from north to south will put the focus of storms at initialization along the coast (better chance along the SC coast) and parts of eastern SC this afternoon. Sea breeze showers and storms will be possible during the early afternoon, but likely be isolated. Near surface dew point depressions remain large for meaningful coverage of sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Surface temperatures are likely to top out near 90 inland with upper 80s along the coast. Dew point in the low 60s and upper 50s inland after early day mixing. Storm chances increase to the north then inland through the afternoon as the initial trough ahead of the cold front approaches the area and instability peaks. SPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the coast and eastern SC. This is mainly for the potential of downdrafts highlighted again by DCAPE above 1000 J/kg. With weak unidirectional shear throughout the day and a dramatic north- south instability gradient, this threat should remain low and localized as the afternoon progresses. As the main cold front approaches the area this evening, low level convergence and increasing moisture advection aloft should support a line of showers. No significant impact is expected with this line of showers. Cold air advection will follow late tonight, bringing temperatures into the low to mid 60s. Some uncertainty with tonight`s lows due to the potential for low clouds and increasing northerly winds behind the front; have blended some NAM with NBM to capture the potential for higher cloud fraction.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Forecast looks to initially dry out a bit Thursday morning, with the front located well to the south of the area. However, one last push from a shortwave associated from the upper low in New England will provide enough vorticity to spawn a weak surface low along the frontal boundary. This increases rain chances by Thursday afternoon, particularly in northeast SC (south of the Pee Dee and Grand Strand). Showers in these areas should be brief and on the faster side. Last of the shortwave pushes offshore Thursday night, with the parent low finally moving stage right and out of the picture. This eliminates the shower chances throughout the night. Cooler air comes in, with highs only hitting the low 80s, and some chilly (for June) lows in the upper 50s. Dewpoints also crash into the 50s. Pumpkin spice weather? Friday, surface high pressure from the upper Midwest quickly slides southeastward. Weak WAA sets up, allowing highs to be about 1-3 degrees warmer from the previous day. Clear skies Friday night allow lows pretty similar from the night before. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summer finally decides to show up over the weekend. Plenty of sunshine expected, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Saturday increasing to the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday. Lows will see a similar trend, going from the mid 60s Saturday night to the upper 60s on Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine ahead! By the beginning of next week, another upper low over the Great Lakes moves into the northeast, which will help to spawn a surface low over the Ohio River Valley. As the surface low moves northward, it`ll drag a warm front through the Carolinas Monday, spiking the moisture through the atmospheric column. With good frontal lifting in place, Monday looks increasingly showery, with rain chances increasing with each forecast update. Clouds and rain keep highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, with a cold front moving through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Forecast guidance still differs on the location and intensity of the upper low driving this mess, so future forecasts will better tell the story. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR. A good chance of convection along the coast this afternoon, have focused any PROB30 flight restrictions in SC during the late afternoon. Showers approach in a line this evening, likely impacting all sites from north to south after 03Z through early Thursday. MVFR/IFR possible late tonight behind the front in low clouds, but confidence is low. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...SW winds increase today ahead of a cold front with the potential for thunderstorms right along the coast this afternoon. Storm chances increase over the water tonight ahead of the front as winds become offshore and NW behind the front. Winds ahead of the front will be much more noticeable at 15-20 knots than behind the front at around 10 knots. Seas 3-4 feet this afternoon, becoming 2-3 feet this evening outside of any showers or storms. Thursday through Sunday...Even with the front well to the south by Thursday, a weak surface low forming along it keeps somewhat variable SW to NW winds at 5-10kts Thursday and Friday, with seas lingering at 1-2ft. Winds at 10-15kts go more southerly by Saturday, with high pressure setting up some return flow. Seas increase to 2- 3ft by this point, with winds developing more of a southeasterly tilt by Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...21 MARINE...IGB/21

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