National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 230814
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
414 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fairly seasonable temperatures through
Friday. A storm system will approach over the weekend bringing
a gradual increase in rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No POPs or any type of WX to contend with this period.

The secondary CFP has pushed thru during these pre-dawn Wed hrs with
the CAA surge now encompassing the ILM CWA. This follows on the
heels of late last evening after the main CFP, in which the FA saw
winds veer westerly at 5 to 10 mph, which advected drier air, ie.
lower dewpoints, across the FA. Few/Sct stratocu early this morning
will dissipate leaving mainly thin cirrus moving overhead, under WSW-
SW jetstream flow thru the remaining near term period. Center of sfc
high will elongate across the Carolinas from the Gulf Coast States
late today and tonight. The center will progress across and off the
Mid-Atlantic States by Thu evening. The CAA will be quick and become
neutral this aftn thru Thu. Could see a decent Rad cooling night
tonight and will hedge lows slightly lower than the consensus of
various Model MOS Guidance. Max temps Thu will nearly be the same
for what occurs today, possibly a degree or 2 milder than today with
full insolation and neutral adv. Return flow around the high
departing off the Mid-atlantic States could push stratocu toward and
possibly onshore especially south of Cape Fear but not enough to
curtail mostly sunny Thu fcst.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thurs
night through Fri, while extending back into the Carolinas. In
the mid to upper levels, ridge to the east will maintain W-SW
flow aloft. Low pressure system over the western Gulf will
deepen as shortwave dig down toward the lower Mississippi
Valley and cuts off. The deep W-SW flow aloft will carry
moisture from this system across the Southeast in the way of
increasing mid to high clouds on Fri, but ridge will maintain a
good bit of dry air and subsidence aloft. Low level flow will
shift slowly around from the NE to E with an increasing moist
flow off the Atlantic as wedge of high pressure holding on.
Expect increase of low clouds into Fri night under fairly steep
subsidence inversion aloft. Overall, air mass will begin to warm
with increasing clouds through Fri into Fri night, but any
significant pcp should hold off as system to the west begins to
lift northward. Temps will be influenced by increase in clouds
and moisture. High on Fri should reach into the mid 70s most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Storm system will lift rapidly northward from the lower
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley, reaching New England by
Sunday. At the same time, high pressure will continue to wedge
in from the northeast while ridge aloft holds just to our east.
Expect more in the way of low clouds into Saturday with
increasingly deep moist flow heading into the latter half of
the weekend as system moves rapidly off to the northeast. Expect
clouds to increase and thicken with increasing chc of pcp in
deeper moisture return from the Gulf ahead of trailing cold
front Sat night into Sunday. Temps will warm into early next
week with above normal temps expected, especially with
increased clouds and moisture present.

Cold front should drop south but should linger just south as
wave of low pressure develops along it as another shortwave digs
down toward the Gulf coast. This could leave unsettled weather
over the area, or at least a portion of the area into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid 06Z TAF Issuance
period. No ceiling or wx issues. NW-N CAA flow will continue into
this aftn and could see G15 kt thru midday. Neutral advection will
become dominant late this aftn thru Thu with winds diminishing. With
the elongated sfc high from the Gulf Coast States pushing to and
across the Carolinas tonight, look for winds to decouple especially
across the inland terminals, as decent Radiational Cooling
conditions set up.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR/IFR from fog and/or
low stratus Fri and Sat mornings...and from pcpn and clouds ahead of
a cold front during Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
CAA surge under offshore WNW-NNW winds will dominate today,
with a few gusts up to 25 kt this morning due to the surge
across SSTS in the 70s. Not enough occurrence to invoke a SCA.
The short period wind driven seas that built up under SE-S flow
yesterday, will get knocked back down rather quickly today. An
underlying 2 foot ENE-E wraparound swell around 10 second
periods will become dominant late tonight thru Thu with some
weak wind chop on top. The center of high pressure will track
across the Carolinas tonight and off the coast of the Mid-
Atlantic States during Thu. This will keep a semi-tightened sfc
pg across the ILM Waters that will keep winds semi-active,
around 10 kt tonight and Thu except 10- 15 kt for the
southernmost portions of the local waters Thu.

Northeasterly winds Thurs night into Fri will become more
onshore as high pressure continues to extend into the waters
from the north to northeast as it tracks east off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Winds will eventually become southerly as storm
system to the west lifts off to the north dragging a cold front
eastward through the end of the weekend. Seas will remain less
than 3 ft heading into the weekend, but should increase by the
latter half o the weekend into early next week in increasing
southeasterly push ahead of approaching cold front. Seas may
reach up to 3 to 5 ft by late Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/RAN
MARINE...DCH/RGZ