Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230814 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 414 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fairly seasonable temperatures through Friday. A storm system will approach over the weekend bringing a gradual increase in rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... No POPs or any type of WX to contend with this period. The secondary CFP has pushed thru during these pre-dawn Wed hrs with the CAA surge now encompassing the ILM CWA. This follows on the heels of late last evening after the main CFP, in which the FA saw winds veer westerly at 5 to 10 mph, which advected drier air, ie. lower dewpoints, across the FA. Few/Sct stratocu early this morning will dissipate leaving mainly thin cirrus moving overhead, under WSW- SW jetstream flow thru the remaining near term period. Center of sfc high will elongate across the Carolinas from the Gulf Coast States late today and tonight. The center will progress across and off the Mid-Atlantic States by Thu evening. The CAA will be quick and become neutral this aftn thru Thu. Could see a decent Rad cooling night tonight and will hedge lows slightly lower than the consensus of various Model MOS Guidance. Max temps Thu will nearly be the same for what occurs today, possibly a degree or 2 milder than today with full insolation and neutral adv. Return flow around the high departing off the Mid-atlantic States could push stratocu toward and possibly onshore especially south of Cape Fear but not enough to curtail mostly sunny Thu fcst. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thurs night through Fri, while extending back into the Carolinas. In the mid to upper levels, ridge to the east will maintain W-SW flow aloft. Low pressure system over the western Gulf will deepen as shortwave dig down toward the lower Mississippi Valley and cuts off. The deep W-SW flow aloft will carry moisture from this system across the Southeast in the way of increasing mid to high clouds on Fri, but ridge will maintain a good bit of dry air and subsidence aloft. Low level flow will shift slowly around from the NE to E with an increasing moist flow off the Atlantic as wedge of high pressure holding on. Expect increase of low clouds into Fri night under fairly steep subsidence inversion aloft. Overall, air mass will begin to warm with increasing clouds through Fri into Fri night, but any significant pcp should hold off as system to the west begins to lift northward. Temps will be influenced by increase in clouds and moisture. High on Fri should reach into the mid 70s most places. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Storm system will lift rapidly northward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley, reaching New England by Sunday. At the same time, high pressure will continue to wedge in from the northeast while ridge aloft holds just to our east. Expect more in the way of low clouds into Saturday with increasingly deep moist flow heading into the latter half of the weekend as system moves rapidly off to the northeast. Expect clouds to increase and thicken with increasing chc of pcp in deeper moisture return from the Gulf ahead of trailing cold front Sat night into Sunday. Temps will warm into early next week with above normal temps expected, especially with increased clouds and moisture present. Cold front should drop south but should linger just south as wave of low pressure develops along it as another shortwave digs down toward the Gulf coast. This could leave unsettled weather over the area, or at least a portion of the area into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid 06Z TAF Issuance period. No ceiling or wx issues. NW-N CAA flow will continue into this aftn and could see G15 kt thru midday. Neutral advection will become dominant late this aftn thru Thu with winds diminishing. With the elongated sfc high from the Gulf Coast States pushing to and across the Carolinas tonight, look for winds to decouple especially across the inland terminals, as decent Radiational Cooling conditions set up. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low stratus Fri and Sat mornings...and from pcpn and clouds ahead of a cold front during Sun. && .MARINE... CAA surge under offshore WNW-NNW winds will dominate today, with a few gusts up to 25 kt this morning due to the surge across SSTS in the 70s. Not enough occurrence to invoke a SCA. The short period wind driven seas that built up under SE-S flow yesterday, will get knocked back down rather quickly today. An underlying 2 foot ENE-E wraparound swell around 10 second periods will become dominant late tonight thru Thu with some weak wind chop on top. The center of high pressure will track across the Carolinas tonight and off the coast of the Mid- Atlantic States during Thu. This will keep a semi-tightened sfc pg across the ILM Waters that will keep winds semi-active, around 10 kt tonight and Thu except 10- 15 kt for the southernmost portions of the local waters Thu. Northeasterly winds Thurs night into Fri will become more onshore as high pressure continues to extend into the waters from the north to northeast as it tracks east off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds will eventually become southerly as storm system to the west lifts off to the north dragging a cold front eastward through the end of the weekend. Seas will remain less than 3 ft heading into the weekend, but should increase by the latter half o the weekend into early next week in increasing southeasterly push ahead of approaching cold front. Seas may reach up to 3 to 5 ft by late Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/RAN MARINE...DCH/RGZ

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