Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201135 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 735 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Severe thunderstorms possible ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into this evening. After the cold frontal passage, drier and less humid air will arrive Friday. Heat and humidity, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will gradually return through the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday...`Hot and Breezy, Turning Turbulent`, could be one headline describing today, ahead of and through, passage of a squall feature tonight, 23z(7p)-03z(11p) from west of I-95, to the coast respectively. Trends have remained consistent in depicting a weakening trend of said line, from west to east, nonetheless, the SPC raising the stakes with `enhanced` to `slight` risks from west to east tonight. The awaiting atmosphere primed with thermal energy, CAPE around 2500 J/jg and elevated effective shear, should solidify the line into the I-95 corridor prior to nightfall. Hazards/Probabilities: Damaging TSTM wind gusts 15-30% highest inland, 1 inch Hail 5-15%, Tornado 2%. Max-Ts hot today, because partial downslope trajectory to pin the sea breeze relatively tight near the coast, should result in 90s for the Myrtles, and middle 90s over most of SE NC and interior portions of NE SC. Pronounced mid level drying and downslope W-NW winds Friday in wake of the front with no cold air advection of note, will bring another very warm day above normal, mostly low 90s, and right up to the ICW. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Mid to upper ridge extending up through the Mississippi River will maintain a deep NW flow as it creeps slowly eastward through Saturday. Weak disturbances in NW flow aloft will enhance convection along lingering front as it shifts back northward through Saturday night. Models differ with location of showers and thunderstorms, but should mainly occur later on Saturday into Sat night associated with lingering boundary and sea breeze front, with possible MCS type feature diving southeast through the Carolinas. Pcp water values closer to an inch Fri eve will shoot back up closer to 2 inches by late Saturday in a more unstable air mass. Overall, expect dry weather to start Fri eve into Sat, with increasing clouds Sat aftn and potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly late into Sat night. Temps overnight Fri will drop into the 60s in a drier air mass, but increasing dewpoints through Saturday will keep overnight lows closer to 70 Sat night. Highs on Sat will be between 85 and 90 most places. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Lingering and weakening boundary at the sfc will reach back north Sun into Mon with a southerly return flow developing through early next week. At the same time, ridge aloft will shift eastward with axis running up through the Southeast. The influence of any perturbations riding down in NW flow aloft will diminish heading into early next week. Overall expect warmer and more humid air mass to settle in with downslope flow and rising heights contributing to temps reaching into the 90s. May see heat index values flirting with 100. Increased subsidence and dry air aloft should allow for only localized shwrs/tstms through much of the period as low level moisture remains present. May see front make it into area by Tues night into Wed if ridge slips east far enough. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...SCT stratus will break over the next few hours and so too will any flight restrictions that remain in place. A mostly clear day with VFR Cu developing in the afternoon. Southerly winds 15-25 knots with higher gusts increasing throughout the afternoon as the PG tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. With the existing instability and high shear, high confidence of an organized line of convection developing this afternoon and progressing through the CWA, beginning at the inland terminals around 21Z and reaching the coastal terminals, quickly, by 00Z. LLWS (25040KT) possible along the coast as the cold front moves through after 00Z. Clearing skies will follow as winds become westerly around 10 knots; VFR conditions will return through the end of the period. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR through the period with brief MVFR/IFR conditions from afternoon convection and early morning fog and/or, low stratus. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM Thursday...`Increasingly Treacherous` could be one headline to describe upcoming marine trends, as a cold front approaches then smacks the coast, delivering a line of strong TSTMs over the 0-20 nm water late this evening. Severe storms are possible over the waters tonight and radar updates are recommended if you must venture out. Outside of TSTMs, advisory SW winds expected through tonight, with gusty W winds into early Friday, not a good time to challenge the Gulf Stream in a small craft. Ocean spectrum entirely commanded by SSW waves 5-8 feet every 6-7 seconds, dangerously steep. Imagine winds and seas higher in and near TSTMs layered on top of this, between 10pm-1am tonight, clearly hazardous. The waves to peak tonight, waning Friday, with offshore wind, surfs up, but a deceptive shoaling hazard ongoing for small craft inshore, in seemingly protected waters from wind. Cold front will lose its drive south, getting held up over SC waters into early Sat. Winds will weaken with off shore flow to the north of front and a light on shore flow to the south. Overall expect seas to continue to drop through Fri night down below 3 ft by Fri night. Flow becomes very weak and shifts slowly around to on shore to SE Sat night into Sun as weak return flow sets up through early next week. Overall expect benign winds and seas after Fri with sea breeze creating a slight spike in winds and seas each aftn into early eve. Potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms will exist through the period. Seas will basically be below 3 ft through the period with a longer period, 9 to 10 sec SE swell mixing in early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21

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