Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300148 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled across the area will dissipate on Thursday bringing slightly lower coverage of storms. Normal heat, humidity, and thunderstorm coverage returns Friday for the next several days. && .UPDATE...
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The main update with the latest forecast was to remove POPs from all areas based on radar trends and HRRR for the overnight hours. Could see areas of fog develop, especially across portions of the Pee Dee region. Some debris cloudiness from upstream convection could limit the areal extent of any fog development.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Slow moving front in the area, convective boundaries, and an approaching mid level short wave have led to increasing coverage of showers and tstms across the area this afternoon, esp. over SC where more concentrated precip is occurring. Very little shear so svr threat is minimal, though with very slow storm motions and deep moisture in place, an isolated flooding concern is there for the next few hours. Ongoing drought will mitigate things but poor drainage/low lying areas may see some issues if any cells end up in the wrong place. Dampening mid level wave should be near the coast by 00z, so will eventually begin to see some NVA. Some of the guidance showing a few lingering showers through early evening, but expect things to diminish steadily after 00z overall. Other concern tonight is fog potential with light winds and today`s rain. Some question on how much clearing we`ll see but have continued to include some fog wording esp. away from immediate coast. Thursday should see less precip coverage than today as slow moving front becomes diffuse and mid level ridging attempts to build. Enough moisture for widely scattered showers/tstms esp. over our SC zones where dewpoints will be a littler higher and some weak low lvl convergence expected. Have 30-40 pops roughly between Georgetown to Darlington counties and and generally 20-30 elsewhere. Otherwise a little warmer tomorrow in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With one closed isopleth remaining overhead at 500mb Thursday night paired with the deep layer moisture to our south it looks like the area is in for a rain-free night with seasonable temperatures. The one exception to rain-free conditions is the fact that one or two showers may advect ashore in the light onshore flow. We lose the suppressing action of the ridge on Friday and diurnal thunderstorms may become scattered to widespread as PW values remain so high. The unsettled weather may persist overnight Friday as a slow moving shortwave traverses the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very weak flow at all levels on Saturday, as is usually the case as we head into July. Another fairly active afternoon may be in the offering as there is still some semblance of shortwave energy overhead, which is less the norm for the time of year. A (very) slight decrease in convective coverage is slated for Sunday as mid level heights rebound slightly. Uncertainty creeps into the latter part of the long term. Previous thinking was that typical July temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm coverage was expected. Model solutions, most notably the GFS that push a boundary this far south are both a novel idea as well as not climatologically favored. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 22Z, the front continues to linger in our northern CWA, roughly located through KLBT and KSUT with most convection remaining along it. Several outflow boundaries could ignite short-lived isolated storms with the best chances at KLBT through 1Z and to a lesser extent KILM. During this time convection should become more stratiform due to loss of daytime heating before fizzling out. The next point of concern is potential MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs overnight due to possible fog and low stratus. Confidence is highest at KFLO from 9Z-12Z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR for Thu as a weak front dissipates and weak high pressure takes over just east of the OBX. A little better chances for afternoon/early evening showers and tstms as we move into and through the weekend may lead to brief restrictions. Will also need to watch for early morning low clouds/fog as summertime pattern develops. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Wind directions have been a little all over the place today but have trended mostly E to ESE 5-10kts outside of showers. An enhancement in NE winds just off the coast north of Cape Fear this morning has eased. Weak front in the area will dissipate through tomorrow, allowing high pressure just east of the Outer Banks to take over. Winds will briefly trend NE to E again into early Thursday morning while staying at or below 10kts, before becoming SE again through the afternoon. Some typical enhancements expected near the coast with sea breeze. Seas around 2ft through tonight will pick up slightly to 2 to 3ft through tomorrow, as a modest increase in SE 7-9s trade swell is realized and mixes with small local wind generated waves in the 4-5s band. Thursday night through Monday... Weak high pressure centered off NC/VA early in the period bringing a light SE flow locally as well as a minor swell component that though weak should overshadow the diminutive wind chop. By Saturday the wave components become closer to equal in height as we increase wind speed into the 10-15kt range. South to SW winds will remain in place for the rest of the period keeping the two wave groups fairly similar. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SRP NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ILM

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