Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 301913
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
313 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through early Sunday. A strong cold
front will move across the region Sunday with cold air building
in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will quickly return to
near normal by the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
N to NE breeze to persist tonight to help keep the atmosphere mixed
and preventing it from getting too chilly. In fact tonight`s lows
in the mid 40s are quite close to seasonable normals. Conversely
lighter winds will lead to more shallow of a mixed boundary layer on
Saturday. This will foster highs only in the mid 60s despite some
weak WAA developing above the surface layer. Saturday night`s lows
will run about a category milder than those of tonight as the warm
advection continues.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A potent mid level trough will move across the area late Sunday
into early Monday with a cold front at the surface. This will
likely be the coldest air mass to date for the season as 850mb
temperatures are near freezing for a several hours early Monday.
The precipitation depicted by guidance with the front is all
but unchanged from previous iterations so the slight chance pops
remain valid. As alluded to the big story will be the cold air.
Highs Monday aren`t expected to get out of the middle 50s or
so. Lows Tuesday morning are mostly in the middle to upper 30s
with the cooler readings inland. Of course the need for a Frost
Advisory will almost certainly be in play inland and it will
depend primarily on if and when the boundary layer decouples.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect a very quiet extended period as the mid level pattern
will relax with a slowly building ridge across the Southeast
late in the period. High pressure situated well to the Northeast
will maintain an east to northeasterly flow across the region.
Moisture will gradually build with a coastal trough late and a
shortwave moving in from the west will give it a boost. This
probably will not happen until next weekend. Temperatures will
quickly reset to near normal values.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR and SKC for the 18Z TAF period. Winds have more of a northerly
component at this point, and still gusting to 20-25kts near the
coast and 20kts inland. Gusts should settle inland within the next
couple of hours, while still lingering along the coast until 22-23Z.
Winds overnight continue to veer towards the NE through the end of
the period, with sustained speeds generally in the 8-10kts range.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR during the extended period.
An exception may include brief MVFR from scattered showers
accompanying a cold frontal passage by late Sunday. Cold, dry and
breezy high pressure will follow Monday through Tuesday of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday Night:
Advisory-worthy seas still slowly abating as the area remains
in between the strong low exiting the MidAtlantic coast and the
high building in behind it. The 4PM end time appears roughly on
track (maybe a small extension for NC waters as 6ft seas cover
less than half of the zones). The moderate wind veers to the NE
overnight and this could advect a few 6 ft waves back into the
NC waters but again over less than half of the zones. Have
collaborated already with the incoming shift who will reassess
with new model data/NWPS runs. Wind then veers again to E
Saturday night and eases in speed as the high partially lifts
out to our north and a weak coastal front develops.


Sunday Through Wednesday:
Very light winds Sunday will give way to a strong offshore
flow Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front moves across.
With good cold air advection winds will jump into a range of 20-25
knots for 12-18 hours or so. This will build seas into Small Craft
Criteria for this time with the highest values across the outer
waters. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday with a northeast flow
developing for the remainder of the period. Seas will drop down to a
range of 2-4 feet beyond Monday.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/SHK



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