Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 242330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will slip through from the north today but
Thursday will still remain on the mild side of climatology as
the cool behind the boundary is delayed until Friday. It will
wash out over the weekend allowing for a warmup. Rain will
return on Monday, possibly lingering into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued warm advection tonight around offshore high pressure will
keep min temps above normal in the mid to upper 40s. A shallow and
dry cold front approaches from the north early Thursday, moving
across the area during the day. Parallel flow aloft will slow the
front`s progress, with it finally being pushed just to our south
Thursday night as high pressure moves north of the area. Mid level
clouds near and just behind the front Thursday may limit max temps.
Current forecast is slightly below MOS guidance in the mid to upper
60s, with higher values to the south. Depending on timing and extent
of cloud cover, could see max temps differ by several degrees from
forecast. Increased cloud cover and light northeast winds will keep
temps Thursday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface wedge will be set up Friday as a low amplitude and very
progressive shortwave passes by late in the day. Temperatures and
convective potential a bit difficult to assess as the eastern
periphery of the wedge may give way to a warm front moving in from
the ocean according to some guidance.  With the absence of a wedge-
enforcing confluence of mid level flow the main factor that should
maintain the wedge will be rainfall...which will likely be a bit
slower than forecast, a common model bias. Additionally the highest
QPF stays over far northwestern zones. Have opened up the high temp
forecast a bit by allowing for warmer temps along the coast while
inland struggles with the wedge a bit. Wedge breaks down Friday
night, possibly enough for a non-diurnal curve.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With the wedge gone a broad but weak swath of southerly surface flow
will develop Saturday with WSW flow aloft. This will favor a warm
afternoon with temperature at or just above 70. A few showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm become possible on Sunday with the approach
of a cold front and a mid level back to SW. Overall with some degree
of cloud cover lingering some of the warmer temperature guidance
implying temperatures near 80 appears ambitious, though Sunday will
wind up the warmer of the two afternoons. The front pushes through
on Monday, possibly favoring morning highs followed by decreasing
temperatures. Rain coming largely after FROPA due to lagging mid
level shortwaves in the still low amplitude flow. The next high that
builds in will serve as an overrunning surface for a possibly healthy
rainfall on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will shift
around to the north then northeast later tomorrow with the
passage of a dry cold front. Some clouds associated with this
feature as well but certainly nowhere near any flight
restrictions.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate thru late Thu with high
pressure prevailing across the Carolinas. Cold front to drop
south and stall across the area late Thu night into Sun with
periods of MVFR/IFR possible Fri thru Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday Night...Relatively quiet marine conditions continue
through Thursday night. 10-15 kt SW flow tonight will weaken to less
than 10 kts Thursday as a slow moving cold front drops south across
the area. Behind the front, 15-20 kt northeast winds develop over
the coastal waters Thursday evening and night. 2-3 ft seas tonight
and during the day Thursday increase to 3-4 ft Thursday night,
primarily wind waves with a 1 ft 9 sec SE swell mixed in.

Friday through Monday... Friday initializes with a wedge-induced
pinched gradient winds out of the NE. Guidance is trending towards
turning the wind ashore with a warm front later in the day but
little drop in wind speed. This could import/advect a few 6 ft seas
along the outer edges of our 20 nm forecast zones necessitating a
Small Craft Advisory. The wedge will be gone on Saturday but some
backswell could still keep Advisory flags in effect at least over
northern zones as Cape Fear may lead to wave height shadowing
further south. Southwesterly flow on Sunday will increase with the
approach of a cold front. For now it appears that 6 ft seas remain
outside of 20 nm including as we head into Monday.  The later Monday
FROPA will help to keep these larger waves at bay especially as the
wind speeds decrease as the high builds in behind the boundary.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...


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