Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250139
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in for the next day or so with
drier conditions. The moisture will increase once again by mid
week and may persist for some time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection appears to be winding down finally. The presence of
some mid layer dry air and the subsequent numerous outflows it
produced led to more coverage that probably anticipated. The
numerous outflows have also distorted the back door cold fronts
definition not that it was that prominent anyway. The remainder
of the overnight hours should be convection free after the next
hour or two. Stratus is almost a given citing all of the
rainfall and some winds in the boundary layer. No other changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft dominates the area forecast today with afternoon
highs reaching the mid to upper 80s to near 90 in some locations,
which is between 5 and 10 degrees above normal for late May.
Instability this afternoon will allow for some chances for
thunderstorm development with heavy downpours at times.  With little
wind to drive any developing storms, isolated storms will not move
very fast and will quickly disintegrate this afternoon. A back
door cold front associated with the surface high pressure to the
north will push through the region sometime later this
afternoon or evening and bring northeast winds and marine
influenced air for some cooler temperatures heading into
Memorial Day with highs closer to average in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms,
mainly inland, will continue into Memorial Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level ridge will wobble from just overhead to offshore
through the period. Expect a similar transition for surface high
pressure although the transition will be more of an airmass
modification. During this time a subtropical plume now seen on
satellite imagery will feed directly into the area and therefore
pops will be increasing through the period. One note of
interest is an area of more concentrated convection embedded
within the plume that guidance seems to like more and more and
is associated with an at times broad closed low but moreso an
open wave. Temperatures have trended a bit lower with highs and
warmer with lows most likely due to the increased moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance remains in general agreement with the mid level
evolution of a retreating ridge to the east and eventual
troughing late in the period with the latter bring along an
attendant cold front. Pops remain in the forecast basically the
entire period with if anything a decrease late via the front
somewhat optimistically pushing to the south. Temperature trends
inherited from the short term remain in place with muggy
morning lows above climatology and highs near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the coverage of convection and some mixing in the boundary
layer expect stratus to develop in the next few hours at all
terminals. Wilmington may be spared by staying in MVFR while the
inland sites are all but certain to spend some in the IFR camp.
Some gradual mixing into VFR should occur Monday morning.

Extended Outlook...VFR Monday night and Tuesday. Unsettled weather
Wednesday through Saturday with a good chance of rain each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Significant wave heights between 2 and 3 feet for the rest of today
mainly from the northeast at 4 seconds with southeast swell between
8 and 10 seconds over the next 36 hours.  As a result of the longer
period swell, moderate risk for rips over the next 2 days mainly for
the east facing beaches of North Carolina.

Basically an easterly to occasional northeast direction early
on with a transition to a south/southeast direction by the end
of the week. A further transition to southwest is noted by the
weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The
seemingly lazy nature of the pressure pattern (welcome to
summer) warrants wind speeds on the lower end of a 10-15 foot
range. Significant seas should be 2-4 feet increasing a bit in
time as what appears to be a decent swell component from the
southeast around surface high pressure.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running almost exactly one foot above
astronomical tidal prediction at the downtown Wilmington gauge
currently. This means tonight`s high tide will exceed the 5.50
feet MLLW flood stage, producing minor water impacts on the
lowest and most flood prone streets in downtown Wilmington and
especially over at the Battleship side of the river. High tide
at the downtown gauge will occur just before 11:30 pm.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA



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