Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 262351
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. Drier and cooler air
will move into the region behind it and will continue through
the weekend as a dry cold front reinforces the cooler
temperatures. Warm and moist air returns in the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory has expired as visibilities begin to
increase as winds veer around and increase ahead of cold front
this evening.

Winds have begun to veer around to the SW increasing up to 10
to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. Forecast on track with
heavier rain making an exit leaving diminishing light rain,
clouds and gusty winds ahead of approaching cold front through
the evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1009 mb low pressure centered over WV with
its cold front stretching down to the south now moving into the
western Carolinas. Aloft, an upr-level trough is centered over the
MS/TN Valley. Deep moist SW flow ahead of the trough axis will
increase rain chances area wide through the evening hours, as
lift also increases just ahead of the front. Included a slight
chance of thunder as well due to some elevated instability. All
model guidance shows the rain ending from west to east late
evening into early overnight as the front slides through the
area. Gusts up to 25-30 mph still expected post-frontal. Despite
the incoming CAA, the wind will prevent temps from dropping too
drastically...lows only into the upr 30s/lwr 40s.

Dry and clear skies for the remainder of the near term period as sfc
high pressure builds over the SE states. Continued CAA into Thu will
only allow temps to top out in the mid 50s, then lows around
freezing Thu night as winds diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
In the mid-levels, the cut-off low will be reaching maturity
over Quebec Friday, and this will drive a short wave trough
through the area Friday night. A second trough will pass across
on Saturday, both the deterministic 12 UTC GFS and 12 UTC ECMWF
are similar. The moisture is very low as the BUFR soundings are
showing the moisture between 850 mb and 700 mb. The biggest
impact will be with the winds; as mentioned in the overnight
forecast, the impact of the shortwave will keep the winds up
Friday night, and the temperatures should stay up as the
boundary layer is well mixed.

Friday`s maximum temperatures will be in the middle 50s.
Friday Night`s lows will be in the middle 30s inland to upper
30s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the mid-levels, a second shortwave associated with the cut-
off low mentioned in the short term forecast will move across
the Carolinas on Saturday, and again the moisture is limited to
the 700 to 850 mb layer. Lift looks stronger than the Friday
night shortwave, so a few clouds are expected Saturday. By
Sunday, ridging ahead of a cut-off low over Southern California
will shift to the Mississippi River and merge with a disturbance
from the Northwest United States, and a deep large scale trough
develops over the Central United States by Wednesday.

This pattern will see a very dry air mass give way to a moist
west to southwest flow and increase in chances of showers by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 50s
Saturday and will increase to low to middle 70s by Wednesday.
Overnight lows will be in the low 30s Friday night and increase
to around 60 by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection making an exit along with sea fog along the coast
leaving behind MVFR to VFR ceilings and gusty SW to W winds
ahead of approaching cold front this evening. Ceilings may
briefly lower to near IFR along the front, however it will be
short lived. Winds shift to the west northwest overnight as the
cold front pushes off the coast. Plenty of dry and cool air
moving in behind cold front leaving VFR on Thursday with gusty
NW winds, diminishing to less than 10 kts by the end of the TAF
period, Thurs evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Mainly clear skies and westerly winds
but may see brief deck of clouds around 5-6k ft and low end chc
of quick shower Fri night with passing cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Visibilities will increase to the 1-3 nm range or greater as
sea fog begins to dissipate as winds veer around to the SW and
increase ahead of a cold fropa later tonight. Otherwise, a Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect through mid aftn Thu, for
20-25 kt WNW winds behind the front and seas up to 6 ft out 20
nm. Improving marine conditions then for Thu night as the
pressure gradient relaxes and associated CAA weakens.

Friday through Monday:

A strong cold front will be well east of the coastal waters on
Friday morning, and a second front will cross the waters Friday
night. High pressure will quickly shift east of the waters by
Monday.

Winds will be from the northwest at 10 knots early Friday and
will back to the southwest at 15 to 20 knots ahead of the second
cold front Friday night. The winds will then swing back to the
northwest on Saturday and then slowly back to the southwest as
the high shifts eastward away from the coastal waters on Sunday
and Monday.

Seas will run 1 to 2 feet Friday with the offshore flow, and by
Friday night, seas will build to 3 to 5 feet Friday night ahead
of the front. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet by Saturday and will
subside to 1 to 2 feet Sunday and Monday. Marginal small craft
conditions are possible Friday night in the coast waters 15 to
20 miles off the coast of the Georgetown and Cape Fear coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MAS/RH


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