000
FXUS62 KILM 010831
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
331 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder temperatures will return as high pressure moves farther
off shore into the weekend. Rain chances will increase ahead of
slow approaching cold front through the weekend. The cold front
will move through Sunday night into Monday with dry and cool air
spreading over the Southeast. Another quick moving system and
cold front will pass early Wednesday followed by more cold and
dry air late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The GFS, NAM, and HRRR show the coastal trough moving onshore
between 15 and 18 UTC. With the trough moving onshore, the winds
will veer to the southeast, and with this, the temperatures will
rise from the mid-40s to around 70 along the coast. Highs farther
inland will be a few degrees cooler, with highs reaching the mid-60s
in areas west of Interstate 95. With the warm front shifting to the
west tonight, the lows overnight will be around 60.

Deeper moisture will increase throughout the near-term forecast.
Precipitable waters will increase from 0.6" to just over 1.5".
Isentropic lift on the 295K surface is increasing this
afternoon and tonight. The models are producing isolated showers
by this afternoon and increase coverage by tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weekend on tap with the remains of a warm front stalled
across the Carolinas, likely west of the local area. A couple
surface waves, with support at 5h from stretched shortwaves, will
lead to periods of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.
Best rain chances will be later Sat into Sat night. Light rain
lingers in the area Sun as the surface boundary ends up pulled to
the coast by surface wave passing Sat night. Despite precipitable
water right around all time max values for early Dec, rainfall will
be limited. Overall there is a lack of forcing, there are no real
mid-level features to speak of (a few weak/sheared shortwaves) and
minimal surface based instability. Weak low level convergence and
not even much in the way of isentropic lift. Plus there will
convection in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico(an area that does have
instability). All of these factors point to a lot of clouds and a
possibly a few brief periods of moderate rain, but mostly light rain
and some mist/drizzle. Sun will be breezy at time with the pinched
gradient occasionally producing gusts in excess of 20 mph.

The front in the area on Sun ends up dragged offshore Sun night as
the occluded low associated with it moves through New England. This
brings an end to any rain chances Sun evening. Scattered low clouds
may linger into the overnight, but skies will remain mostly cloudy
regardless of low cloud as forecast soundings show a thick cirrus
deck persisting into Mon.

Despite the clouds and rain temperatures will be well above climo
this weekend. Strong warm advection pushes highs into the upper 60s
to lower 70s with cloud cover and mixing keeping lows in the lower
60s Sat night. Cooler air starts to filter in Sun night as the front
pushes offshore, but lingering clouds and winds will keep lows in
the low to mid 50s, roughly 10-15 degrees above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mon begins with a cooler and drier air mass building in from the
west. The first cold front will be well offshore by Mon morning, but
with the 5h trough axis not reaching the East Coast until late Mon
temperatures above climo will continue. Second cold front moves
across the area late Mon, driven east by the 5h trough. Front passes
dry with any rainfall associated with the trough passing well north
of the area. Colder air filters in for the middle of the week with
temperatures dropping near to slightly below climo Tue. Fast moving
clipper system drags another cold front across the area on Wed with
a reinforcing shot of cold air dropping temps below climo for Thu.
As with the front on Mon this one will pass dry. Flat flow aloft
will prevent any significant moisture return and it`s possible skies
will remain clear Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR expected except for MVFR at KILM and IFR at CRE.Primary
forecast concern is chance for fog late tonight into tomorrow
morning Any visibility restrictions will improve quickly with
sunrise, with increase high clouds to start Friday. As coastal
trough moves inland as a warm front during the day, lower clouds
around 4-5 kft will develop by the afternoon. Isolated showers
expected Friday afternoon with the front along with southerly
winds around 10 kts.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues into Friday, when scattered
showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods
of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions at
times through the weekend and into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
As the coastal trough moves onshore around noon, the winds will
veer from the east to the south. The wind speeds will increase
to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. This morning`s seas of 1 to 2
feet will increase to 3 to 4 feet by sunrise Saturday.

Saturday through Tuesday:
Winds from the southwest this weekend with speeds increasing
from Sat to Sun as gradient tightens. Speeds 10 kt or less Sat
into Sat night ramp up to 15-20 kt Sun, building seas from 3-4
ft Sat to 4-5 ft Sun. Front moves offshore late Sun night with
offshore flow developing around daybreak Mon. Offshore flow
develops for Mon, but remains westerly instead of going to the
typical northwest post cold front. Offshore flow remains on the
strong side 15-20 kt which leads to a wide range of seas,
potentially 2-5 ft, Mon into Mon night. Northwest flow does
finally develop Mon night following the passage of a second cold
front. Not much in the way of cold advection with the second
front and wind speeds will decrease into Tue. Winds back to
southwest later Tue ahead of another cold front moving in from
the northwest. Changing direction and decreasing speeds will
result in seas under 3 ft Tue. Seas will be a mix of a southeast
swell and a southerly wind wave through the weekend. The
southeast swell will persist into next week but the wind wave
will become more northerly, especially Mon night and Tue.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...III/RH