Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
317 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold air will build into the area through Monday. A
gradual recovery in temperatures will begin on Tuesday. The next
cold front is expected Wednesday night or Thursday. High
pressure will build through the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Latest sfc analysis shows broad 1034 mb high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. The high builds down
into the area today into tonight, leading to dry weather and a
sunny/clear sky. The main story is the cold temps...after lows in
the mid 20s this morning, only expect temps to reach the mid/upr 30s
this aftn under strong cold air advection. The temps and somewhat
breezy NW winds will lead to wind chill values not making it out of
the 20s most areas today. Winds decrease into tonight, but it
nonetheless will be the coldest night of the winter season so
far...lows in the low/mid 20s, with upr teens not out of the
question over the coldest areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Slow moving high pressure passing by to our
north through the period while maintaining a ridge axis into the
Carolinas. The ridge axis will inhibit mixing (only a 1kft BL
according to WRF fcst soundings) and thus hamper the ongoing warm
advection aloft from being realized at the surface. This will change
somewhat dramatically by Wednesday as the high shifts offshore and
the warm air freely mixes down the surface yielding an afternoon
some 20 degrees warmer than Tuesday despite an increasing trend in
cloud cover. Some guidance spitting out low QPF on Wednesday but
with 30C dewpoint depressions depicted above 10kft in forecast
soundings this seems suspect. Have trimmed POPs slightly as a
result. This is due to rapidly change Wednesday night. Low level
jetting, mid level PVA, and upper divergence all spread across the
area from the west bringing in what may end up being some healthy
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...A rainy start on Thursday as cold front moves
through rather quickly due to fast low amplitude flow aloft. Chilly
high pressure will then build for the remainder of the period.
Temperatures will be below climatology but the airmass will not be
one of Arctic influence like the current one.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...Clear skies and VFR through the forecast period.
Northwesterly winds around 10 knots will continue overnight,
increasing to 10-15 knots and becoming northerly on Monday; expect a
few gusts at the coastal terminals. Can`t rule out a gust or two at
the inland terminals as well. Winds decreasing overnight to around 3
knots or less and becoming northeaserly as an arctic high pressure
settles over the Allegheny Plateau in PA/WV/OH. Fog potential near
zero Tuesday morning with extremely dry air in place (dew points in
the single digits).

Extended Outlook...VFR and very cold into Tuesday morning. MVFR
conditions possible with a frontal passage on Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 300 AM Sunday...Small Craft Advisory continues through early
this aftn as N/NW cold air advection flow leads to 20-25 kt winds
with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will subside later today into tonight,
and be mainly ~15 kt overnight out of the NE. 3-5 ft seas this
morning decrease to 2-4 ft later this aftn.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM
Monday... NE winds Tuesday the result of high pressure moving
eastward and passing by to our north. This will lead to veering of
the flow Tuesday night to easterly and then southerly by Wednesday
at which time wind speed will pick up due to the approach of a cold
front. A further increase towards the end of the period will push
wind and seas both into Advisory realm.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Strong
winds and large seas still calling for an advisory early Thursday
but it looks like both should really abate fairly quickly following
the abrupt veer that the FROPA brings. High pressure will still be
building in from the west on Friday behind the front keeping winds
out of the northwest as seas continue to settle.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM Sunday...A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the
Cape Fear River at Wilmington for the high tide cycle this morning,
and minor flooding is again possible during Tuesday morning`s high
tide cycle.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EST
     today for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAS/21



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