Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 162017
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
317 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will affect the region tonight bringing dry
weather. Anotherh round of precipitation will arrive Monday
night into Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the
west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Clearing line of the lower clouds continues work to the southand
east as a weak surface boundary is pushed through the area by
building high pressure. First part of the night should be mostly
clear for the majority of the area, with the lingering low clouds in
the southeast. As the evening progresses, high then mid clouds will
begin to increase as isentropic lift begins to develop.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s in the rural areas of
central Ohio to around 30s in nrn KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low level flow will become southerly on Monday on the backside of
the high. Dry low levels will keep the morning hours dry as the
clouds thicken. By afternoon, there is a small chance of rain
showers in the western counties where column will moisten a little
quicker. Moderating temperatures will continue into tomorrow, where
highs will range from the lower 40s in West Central Ohio to the
lower 50s in nrn KY.

H5 s/w will move across the Great Lakes Monday night as a surface
low lifts from the mid MS Valley to northern Michigan by the edd if
the period. A trailing cold front will work its way up the Ohio
Valley during the night. Rain is expected to overspread the region,
with the better QPF amounts across the northwest counties where 0.25
to 0.50 inches of rain are expected. Other area should see lower
amounts, so it doesn`t look like the QPF will be heavy enough to
bring another round of flooding. Lows Monday night should be early
before rising for the rest of the night.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, surface low pressure is expected to be moving
eastward across Lake Huron and into Ontario, with a trailing cold
front extending through the northern Ohio Valley and as far
southwest as the Texas panhandle. Precipitation will be ongoing
ahead of this front as the forecast period begins, with non-diurnal
temperatures as a result of the frontal passage. Behind the front,
conditions will be cooling through the day, while some continued
warming in the southerly flow ahead of the front is possible. This
will result in a fairly sharp temperature gradient early on Tuesday
across the ILN CWA, with lower 50s in the southeast and upper 30s in
the northwest. Based on the expected frontal timing, most (if not
all) of the measurable precipitation is expected to be out of the
area before temperatures are cold enough for snow. Some flurries may
be possible going into Tuesday evening, but 12Z model runs appear
too meager with moisture (and too shallow with mixing) to suggest
that this should be in the forecast at this distance.

Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the week. Cold
advection is expected to persist for a while behind the Tuesday cold
front, with an additional reinforcement of cold air arriving
Thursday morning, just ahead of the surface high that is expected to
move over the area late on Thursday. This high will help lead to the
coolest temperatures of the period -- with min temps in the mid to
upper teens on Friday morning. After that, a gradual shift to rising
heights and southerly boundary layer flow will take place, leading
to gradually warming conditions going into the weekend.

Overall confidence in the large-scale forecast features is
relatively high, with good run-to-run and cross-model agreement over
the last few ECMWF/GFS cycles. The next chance for precipitation
appears likely to hold off until after the weekend, with evidence of
upstream trough development and surface cyclogenesis over the
lower/middle Mississippi Valley region on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak boundary continues to slip southeast through the region.
As it does the backedge of the lower clouds shield is dropping
south with it. Ceiling heights on the very backedge have come
within a few hundred feet of MVFR, but so far everyone has
stayed above 3000ft. The northern edge of the clouds should
continue to drop to the south, thus lower clouds should
gradually scatter out this afternoon, beginning at DAY within
the next hour and the srn tafs by 21-22Z.

The low clouds will be replaced by some patchy cirrus for the
first part of the night as high pressure will settle across the
region. The cirrus will begin to increase by 06Z as zonal flow
aloft pulls moisture in from the west.

Some of the guidance is still trying to suggest the possibility
of fog overnight. The increasing cirrus will act to fight the
development. Kept the mention of MVFR fog at all the tafs, but
backed it off until 08-12Z.

Isentropic lift begins to increase Monday and ceilings are
forecast to lower throughout the day. The NAM and GFS are now
trying to bring QPF into the tafs after 18Z, so added a VCSH to
the CVG 30 hour taf.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night
into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Sites



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