Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 051911
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
311 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the western Ohio Valley will
provide mostly dry conditions and unseasonably mild
temperatures through the end of the workweek. Warmer and more
humid air will this weekend, with increased chances for
precipitation by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over the lower great lakes/western Ohio
Valley and overall northwest flow will keep cool and dry
conditions through tonight. Diurnal clouds will slowly dissipate
this evening, and the thick cirrus currently lifting through the
region will also lift north of the area. While an upper level
disturbance will pivot into the region late tonight, very dry
low levels will keep dry conditions overnight.

Overnight lows will moderate slightly from last night, ranging
from the lower/mid 50s north to lower 60s in the southeast where
increasing clouds expected. Light and shallow valley fog is
possible in areas outside of the increasing clouds in the
southeast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak instability coincident with a mid level trough will advect
in a little more substantial low level moisture in the southeast
forecast area late tonight and during the day Thursday.

This will be on the southeast edge of the surface high and
will bring a very slight potential for afternoon convection
near Portsmouth/Vanceburg Thursday afternoon. Confidence fairly
low, but with some potential in the CAMs, it can`t be ruled out
so continued the mention of a stray shower.

Across the north, a shallow mid level trough and associated
will continue to pivot through the area, but dry low levels will
keep any precip chances at bay.

Highs slightly warmer on Thursday into the upper 70s and lower
80s area- wide.

For Thursday night, the moisture associated with the weak
shortwave in the SE will pivot northeast of the area, and while
surface flow remains northerly, upper level flow becoming a bit
more westerly/southwesterly. Moisture and temperatures will
begin slowly trending to more seasonable conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period begins with a H5 shortwave trof over the Great Lakes. Under
this upper trof is located high pressure at the surface. The trof
will slide into the Appalachians by Friday evening.  The low levels
look pretty dry, so despite some upper support it is looking like
Friday will be dry. Highs will be close to normal ranging from the
lower 80s in West Central Ohio and the Whitewater Valley to the
upper 80s in the lower Scioto Valley.

With the H5 trof moving off the east coast Friday night, an upper
ridge in the middle of the country builds a little into the Ohio
Valley. Some northwest flow is still apparent over the Great Lakes.
The surface high will still bring dry conditions on Saturday and
highs 85 to 90 degrees.

By Sunday, a stronger H5 s/w will be working east across the
northern U.S./Canadian plains. In addition, southerly surface flow
will start the moisture return into the region. Can`t rule out some
convection popping up, so carried slight chance PoPs for all but the
far east. Highs will increase a little more, ranging from the mid
80s in the West Central Ohio to the lower 90s in the lower Scioto
Valley/northeast Kentucky.

A cold front associated with the H5 s/w is forecast to push into the
western Great Lakes on Monday. This will add surface forcing and
should help with scattered thunderstorm development. Highs will
remain above normal.

For Tuesday and Wednesday the region will be on the southern edge of
zonal flow over the Great Lakes. This will allow some upper level
forcing to affect the region both Tuesday and Wednesday, which will
prompt diurnal convective development. Above normal highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s are forecast.

&&

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with very dry low
levels, light NW winds and high pressure settling into the
middle Ohio Valley. Areas of cu are more widespread than
originally thought in the KDAY/KILN areas, with bkn to OVC cirrus,
as well. These clouds will lift north this evening, with a
return of VFR 4-6kft sct-bkn clouds during the day Thursday.

Low levels quite dry, so while can`t completely rule out a
higher MVFR visibility restriction toward 12z at KLUK, would
likely be fairly brief.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...JDR



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