395
FXUS61 KILN 131024
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
624 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Wind Warning expanded a bit farther south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy conditions will develop this morning and continue through
the rest of the day. The highest gusts will occur mid morning
through mid afternoon, especially near/north of I-70, where gusts
to around 60 mph will be possible.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be
expected Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.
The precipitation will transition to a rain-snow mix Monday morning,
with some snow showers lingering into Monday afternoon. A much
colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with
lows in the teens likely Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A deep low pressure system currently over Minnesota will track east
across the Great Lakes through tonight. Ahead of this, a strong low
level jet will develop into our area this morning and then shift off
to the east through this afternoon. As the pressure gradient
continues to tighten and we then get into some mixing through the
day, south to southwest winds will increase through the morning
hours and then continue into this afternoon. Desi-HREF is suggesting
probabilities of wind gusts to 55 mph of 60 percent or greater
across about the northern half of our area and this is backed up by
momentum transfer techniques off of the forecast soundings. Have made
some minor changes to headlines, expanding the High Wind Warning a
bit farther south to include Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway and
Fairfield Counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level short wave will move out of the Plains Sunday and then
pivot up across the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. This will
allow for an associated deepening surface low over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday to lift up through the Great Lakes on Monday, while
dragging a strong cold front southeast through the Ohio Valley. Good
southerly flow ahead of this system will lead to much warmer
temperatures on Sunday with afternoon highs in the low to possibly
mid 70s.

Showers will develop as we head into Sunday evening. There remains
some timing differences between the models, and as a result, some
uncertainty on how much if any instability will be able to be pulled
up into our area Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Will
continue with a chance of embedded thunder and we may end up with at
least a lower end severe threat Sunday night depending on the
timing/instability.

Good CAA will develop behind the front through the day on Monday,
leading to falling temperatures on Monday and then much cooler
temperatures heading into mid week. Lingering showers on Monday will
mix with and change to snow through the day on Monday before ending.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong low level jet will be in place across our area this morning
before shifting off to our east through this afternoon. This will
lead to windy conditions today, with southwest winds gusting into
the 40 to 50 knot range later this morning and continuing into the
afternoon. LLWS and some light showers or sprinkles will also be
possible early this morning. Winds will begin to decrease heading
into this evening and through the overnight hours. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK... MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and
Monday, along with gusty winds in excess of 35 knots.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-073-074-
     077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL