000
FXUS61 KILN 090632
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of developing low pressure
moving into the Great Lakes. This system will provide scattered
showers early Saturday, becoming more numerous heading into the
evening associated with a cold front. High pressure and colder
temperatures will arrive Sunday and continue into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
Clouds have thickened this evening as low-level moisture
transport has increased over the last few hours. This is evident
in the 00Z ILN RAOB with strong (35-40 knots) southwesterly
flow found between 850-800mb. Aloft, considerable amounts of dry
air exists, likely limiting any initial showers to sprinkles as
the enter the area over the next few hours. Further into the
overnight, large-scale diffluence over the region will be able
to take advantage of deeper, richer moisture which eventually
arrives from the southwest. This gradually increases shower
coverage overnight and into early Saturday morning. Around
sunrise, region-wide forcing is fairly weak, potentially
leading to a general lull in shower coverage through mid-
morning, ahead of the better forcing and more widespread
activity Saturday afternoon.

Cloud cover and wind speeds keep overnight temperatures
elevated, with most locations lingering in the 40s and even
lower 50s.

Previous discussion...(356 PM)
Strengthening low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley
will shift into the Great Lakes this evening through tonight.
Persistent southwest flow ahead of the system will cause clouds
to thicken overnight and keep temperatures mild, with lows in
the upper 40s east to low 50s west. A few showers are possible
by morning with some modest mass convergence ahead of a low
level jet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Latest guidance has come in with less precipitation on
Saturday. This is especially noticeable with the orientation of
the low level jet early Saturday morning being further to the
west. This results in rain showers being more scattered in
nature.

Beyond this, showers should increase in coverage along and ahead
of the cold front late in the afternoon through the evening
hours. Latest guidance brings total rainfall to the range of a
half to one inch, with heaviest amounts across northeast KY into
south central Ohio.

After highs in the low 60s in the warm sector Saturday
afternoon, cold air advection behind the front will push low
temperatures Saturday night down into the mid 30s west through
mid 40s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers may still be lingering at the beginning of the period,
but should clear out fairly quickly which will keep remaining
precipitation as rain. Highs will be at the start of the day in
eastern counties with temperatures continuing to fall through
the morning before steadying out. There is some potential for a
few degree rise from morning low in western counties.

West northwest flow coming off of Lake Michigan could bring a
streamer across northern counties with a few rain or snow
showers into Sunday night.

High pressure will then briefly build in. A dry front will slide
through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Another high will
build in for the rest of the period. Below normal temperatures
on Monday will then moderate with only a minor blip in this
trend mid week in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture increases in response to southwesterly 50 KT low level
jet this morning. This will allow scattered showers to overspread
the TAF sites from the southwest. Ceilings to drop to MVFR
early this morning, with IFR ceilings possible thru the
afternoon and into this evening.

Scattered early showers this morning decrease in coverage late
morning to early afternoon as the initial band of WAA pcpn
shifts off to the northeast.

An increased chance for showers arrives after 20Z as a surface
cold front and associated forcing approach from the west. Some
marginal instability is indicated by most model solutions - so
can`t rule out some thunderstorms. Given the lower confidence,
kept mention out of the TAFs for this issuance.

The front pushes east of the TAF sites this evening with
southwest winds shifting to the northwest. Precipitation chances
also diminish with the passage of the front. MVFR ceilings may
briefly bounce up to VFR later tonight before dropping back to
MVFR early Sunday.

Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts to gust up to 25 kts today and
then shift to the northwest this evening around 10 to 12 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR