Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 171940
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather offering dry conditions
into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal
normal through the middle of this upcoming week. The next chance
of rain arrives Wednesday night into Thursday with the approach
of the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Northwest flow aloft with the surface surface high pressure
building into the Tennessee Valley into tonight. Dry airmass in
place with only few to scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds
over Central Ohio. With loss of daytime heating these clouds
will give way to clearing early this evening.

As the boundary layer decouples gusty west winds will subside
to 5 to 10 mph this evening. Can not rule out river valley fog
but dry airmass and some flow should inhibit widespread fog
development.

Temperatures to drop to seasonably cool readings with lows from
the upper 30 to the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad mid level ridge over the nations mid section to begin
building east into the Great Lakes. Surface ridge axis over the
area Monday to shift east Monday night. Expect abundant sunshine
Monday with temperatures a few degrees warm as weak WAA begins.
Expect highs to range from 65 to 70.

As surface ridge axis shifts east a low level southerly flow
will develop Monday night. Overnight lows to range from near
40 in the eastern cooler locations to the mid 40s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging west of the area will keep slightly warmer air
over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with a southwest surface flow.
The ridge crosses Wednesday afternoon, and rain streams in overnight
as an upper low quickly tracks from Nebraska on Wednesday morning to
near Chicago Thursday morning, Toledo by afternoon and northwest PA
by Thursday evening. Ahead of this low, rain will overspread the
region before daybreak Thursday, ending by evening. Temperatures
will be about 10 degrees cooler in the rain-cooled air Thursday, and
overnight in the cooler air advecting in behind the front.

For Friday and into the weekend, readings will remain just as cool,
typically in the low to mid 40s at night and near 60 during the day.

Before this front, highs will nose into the lower 70s with a maximum
overnight low in the mid 50s found in the warm advection immediately
preceding the front Thursday.

Northwest flow aloft and embedded shortwave energy will combine with
low LCLs on Friday and CAA to possibly see some scattered light
showers. Indications of some more showers are there for Sunday but
the airmass will likely see several iterations of change leading up
to this day. Ran with the blended forecast but deterministic GFS is
dry and seems to have a good transition in the general pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with the center of a large area of surface
surface high pressure building into the Tennessee Valley. The
ridge axis will build east into the area Monday.  Dry airmass
with only some flat VFR cumulus clouds this aftn mainly over
Central Ohio.

West winds around 10 kts gusting to around 20 KTS will subside
again toward sunset. Winds may go calm later in the overnight
period at KLUK valley location, setting the stage for potential
fog development. Have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions thru
13Z.

Any fog that develops will improve quickly after sunrise Monday with
VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF forecast
period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR


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