789
FXUS61 KILN 240136
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
936 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region this evening into the
early morning hours of Monday, bringing widespread showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. It will be dry but windy on Monday as low
pressure passes well north of the area. A couple of weak systems will
then bring a chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The nose of the strong LLJ continues to pivot to the E immediately
ahead of the eastward-advancing front, taking with it the widespread
RA, which will end from W to E by midnight. The LL thermodynamic
environment was unable to become supportive of a severe threat, owing
to a lack of substantial northward progression of the rather narrow
warm sector. As a result, the main impact from the system was a
steady/soaking rain, particularly for locales near/S of the I-71
corridor where amounts generally ranged from two thirds of an inch to
around one inch.

For the remainder of the near term period, drier/cooler air will
filter in from the W amidst a light (~10-15kts) westerly wind after
midnight, with temps dipping into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak,
with some lower 40s lingering in the lower Scioto Valley. Cloud cover
will slowly erode from W to E during the predawn hours, but there
still should be some lingering cloud cover, particularly near/N of
I-70 and near/S of the OH Rvr by daybreak as the dry slot pinches E
into the ILN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure at the surface and in the mid levels will be occluding
on Monday across the north central Great Lakes and southern Ontario.
This circulation will move northeast during the day. For our area, it
should remain dry with just some FEW-SCT cumulus clouds. However,
the big factor will be windy conditions as the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight, and deep mixing will bring stronger winds
aloft down to the surface in the form of gusts. Thus, wind gusts
will range from 35 mph south to around 45 mph north. This looks like
a solid SPS type of an event at this point, so will continue to
mention this threat the HWO. Highs will range from near 50 north to
near 60 south.

Winds will diminish as we head into the evening hours of Monday as
the low moves away and surface high pressure briefly visits the area.
For the overnight hours, the high will shift east. Clouds will
increase from the west/southwest ahead of the next weather system.
There could be a chance of showers southwest late. Lows will range
from the lower 30s north to near 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
First minor shortwave will shift east through our southern counties
(or perhaps further south in Kentucky) Tuesday morning before another
one drops southeast through the region Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Generally expect light QPF during this chilly
period.

Surface high pressure will build in from the west later on Wednesday
into Thursday. As the high passes to the east, afternoon high
temperatures on Thursday are likely to rebound to the upper 50s to
lower 60s via warmer southwesterly winds.

Mid-level ridging will begin to shift into the Ohio Valley in
earnest on Friday. As it does, there could be a brief period of rain
showers due to warm, moist overrunning. Guidance differs here, so
will keep PoPs down in the chance range.

To close the extended period next weekend, warm southerly flow will
provide well above normal temperatures and a chance of showers and
storms as a cold front approaches the CWA from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread steady RA continues near/S of the I-71 corridor for the
start of the TAF period, but this activity should wane in coverage
from W to E through 02z, with dry conditions expected for the
terminals thereafter. While there remains an ISO chance for TS for
KCVG/KLUK, do feel the potential should be low enough to not include
any further in the fcst at this time. Widespread MVFR CIGs may
briefly go IFR through 02z, but MVFR CIGs should prevail before
returning to VFR between 03z-06z following the FROPA. CIGs will
eventually scatter out from W to E between 06z-12z, but may linger at
ern sites of KCMH/KLCK into the early daytime.

Light SE winds ahead of the front will go out of the W and gust
briefly to 20-25kts between about 04z-08z before subsiding a bit
between 08z-14z. WSW winds will increase rather abruptly thereafter,
with sustained winds around 20-25kts and gusts to around 35kts
expected late morning through the afternoon. Winds should subside a
bit toward the end of the period once again.

FEW/SCT VFR Cu may linger a bit during the daytime, particularly for
nrn sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. Skies will trend clearer area-wide
toward the end of the period before some cirrus moves in from the SW
past 00z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs possible Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR
CIGs possible Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC