Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 221055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
555 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes today keeping most
of the area dry, confining precipitation south of the Ohio River
into tonight. Moisture will overspread the region from the south
Saturday as a warm front advances into the Ohio Valley. Rain with
embedded thunderstorms will be possible Saturday until a cold
front sweeps through the area Saturday night. Some of the rain
will be heavy. Strong winds will accompany the front and continue
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Westerly mid level flow with surface high pressure building
across the Great Lakes today. A few rain showers may affect the
far southeast early today - otherwise expect dry conditions as
moisture settles a little south.

Expect considerable high level moisture with some mid level
clouds across the south. Temperatures will be slightly above
normal with highs from the lower 40s north of I-70 to the upper
40s along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Mid level flow will back with moisture beginning to spread
north increasing pcpn chances from the southwest. Blended
approach was too quick spreading pcpn north. So have slowed
onset down slightly. Best chance for pcpn will occur after 08Z
in the far southwest - where 8H convergence and isentropic lift
develops. Expect late evening lows from the lower 30s north to
the lower 40s south with temperatures steading out and then
slowly rising late.

As strong mid level trof translates from the four corners
region into the plains - strong surface low will further deepen
and eject northeast acrs the Central Plains Saturday and into
the Upper MS VLY Saturday night. Ahead of this low - a 55-60kt
low level jet will offer good moisture transport into the Ohio
Valley with precipitable water values increasing to around 1.5
inches.

Marginal instability to develop into the region with the warm
front lifting into the area. Temperatures to warm to between 10
and 15 degrees above normal with highs Saturday from near 50
north to the lower 60s south.

Have issued a flood watch across the far south where a storm
total of 1 to 2 inches is likely with locally higher amounts
possible through Saturday night. This rain will fall on already
saturated ground with area rivers and streams running high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep low pressure will be moving to the Western Great Lakes Saturday
night, producing a wide range of hazardous weather for the ILN area.
Initially, there will be the threat for severe thunderstorms in the
weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment ahead of the low.
Heavy downpours falling on saturated soils will cause localized
flooding, followed by significant rises on tributaries. Later
Saturday night through Sunday as the severe weather threat falls off
behind a cold front, synoptic scale high winds will take over, with
gusts over 50 mph possible in a well mixed regime of rapidly rising
pressure. A high wind watch has already been issued across the north
half of the FA to address that situation. Precip should come to an
abrupt end on Sunday as the cold front departs quickly east, while
winds remain quite strong into Sunday night.

A large area of surface high pressure will allow dry weather Monday
into Tuesday. A mid level disturbance traveling on a westerly flow
aloft may give some light snow and rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.
High pressure and dry air are forecast to return on Thursday.

Temperatures begin the period above normal, with upper 40s expected
Sunday. Multiple rounds of cold advection will then suppress
readings below normal for the rest of the long term, when highs
are forecast to reach the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure to build across the Great Lakes today with
pcpn staying south of the Ohio River. Expect VFR conditions
through the day and into the evening with mid and high level
ceilings. Moisture will begin to increase toward Saturday
morning from the southwest and overspread the TAF sites during
the day. Have included a mention of a rain shower after 10Z at
KCVG/KLUK with MVFR conditions developing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible from Saturday through
Sunday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday
night. Strong winds are expected on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     evening for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for OHZ079-081-082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for KYZ094>100.
IN...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     evening for INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Franks/AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR


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