Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 140258 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 958 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure in general is expected across the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Model guidance suggest upper trough currently over the northern Midwest and northern Plains will move into the local area by sunrise Thursday. Overall, lift and moisture appear insufficient for precipitation tonight, with most of the deeper moisture restricted to the higher levels. Will continue with a dry forecast. Satellite indicates there will probably be quite a bit of mid/high level cloud through most of the night, with the cloud cover thinning out during the early morning hours of Thursday. Although the cloud cover and warm advection may offset the temperature fall, expected clearing late tonight and residual snow cover should result in lows a bit below the GFS MOS guidance. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... Issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Models suggest a progressive pattern can be expected in the short term. The remnants of tonight`s weakening trough will pass through the area on Thursday, followed by rising heights by the end of the week. Appears lift/moisture withing the precipitation bearing layer remains insufficient for precipitation during the short term, so will continue with a dry forecast. Potential exists for some cold advection lower cloud by Friday and Friday night, and some mid/high cloud Friday night into Saturday, ahead of a developing trough in the Plains. Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Thursday look too cool. Will bump up the guidance highs a couple of categories at that time. The remainder of the guidance looks reasonable for now. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Models in agreement that the long term will start off with high pressure over the eastern states and outhwest aloft. This will provide dry weather through Sunday night. Then, a pair of upper troughs of low pressure will move through Monday and Tuesday before ridging sets in Wednesday. With moisture lacking, will keep the long term all dry. The trend of temperatures starting off well below normal and warming to near normal by Wednesday looks reasonable per the blend. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 14/03Z TAF Update/... Issued at 943 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Update... No changes. Previous Discussion... VFR conditions will continue with high pressure over the region. Winds will initially start out southeasterly then veer to the northwest through the course of the TAF period. Sustained wind speeds will range between 5 to 10 kts. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...TDUD

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