Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 152236 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 636 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry weather is expected during this period, as model data suggest a large area of surface high pressure, currently located over the northern Midwest, will drift south into the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning. Models suggest mean relative humidity up through 500mb will be near or below 50%, so there should be little in the way of significant cloud cover through Wednesday night. Rather cool convective temperatures should result in some shallow instability cloud development during the warmer parts of the day. Low level thickness progs suggest the GFS MOS highs for Wednesday may be a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance highs a category in that period. The guidance in the remaining periods look OK for now. && .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Upper ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will retreat to the southwestern states this weekend as one upper wave drops southeast across the Great Lakes Friday night, in the fast northwest flow aloft, and another follows late weekend into early next week. This will result in a cold front stalling across central Indiana early this weekend, returning north as a warm front late in the weekend and another cold front moving in early next week. Thursday will start off dry but warm back up to slightly above normal as the surface high moves to the east and southwest low level flow returns. This will also result in increasing moisture and instability and this will combine with an approaching cold front to result in the threat for convection by early Friday. The best chances for thunderstorms look to be Friday and Friday night due to the best combo of synoptic forcing, moisture, shear and instability. Strong instability, 40 plus knot deep shear and a 30 plus knot low level jet support strong to severe storms per the SPC day 4-8 Outlook. Also, precipitable water values greater than 1.5 inches support a heavy rain threat. Confidence in PoPs late in the weekend not as high and will depend on temporal and spacial considerations regarding the front. Confidence in convection will go up next week as the front returns north of the area and another cold front approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will also be problematic this weekend depending on the evolution of the first front. For now, Friday looks like the warmest day with well above normal temperatures possible. Also, trends point to below normal temperatures toward the middle of next week behind the second cold front. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 IMPACTS: - High based cumulus will linger into the evening. More VFR cumulus will develop Wednesday - Winds may gust to around 15kt very early in the period. Otherwise winds will generally be 10kt or less and from 350-040 DISCUSSION: High pressure will keep quiet weather across the area through the period. A dry lower atmosphere should prevent fog. The high moving in will allow lower wind speeds, but may bring some variability to the wind at times. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short Term...JAS Long Term...Koch Aviation...50

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