Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1258 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Issued at 1257 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Very light snow and patchy drizzle may continue to cause a few
slick spots on roads through this evening. The light
precipitation should end early tonight with mostly dry conditions
from Wednesday through Friday. Highs the rest of the week will be
from 35 to 40 each day with lows around 25 to 30. Even milder
weather is expected at the beginning of next week with daytime
temperatures warming to near 50 on Monday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Light precipitation has been diminishing as low level winds become
more westerly and lake enhancement becomes more limited. However,
moisture remains trapped under the base of a strong subsidence
inversion, and a weak shortwave trough has been causing snow
flurries as well as some drizzle. Temperatures are generally at or
above freezing and could still rise a few degrees this afternoon,
so only trace accumulations expected. Lows tonight will drop
several degrees below freezing, but showers will taper off as high
pressure and drier air move into the area. The inversion will
remain in place on Wednesday with persistent low clouds, but
without an upper level trigger, precipitation is not anticipated.
Daytime temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, with highs in the
low to mid 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

An upper low will move over the region on Wednesday night, which
could cause some light precipitation, but most of the moisture and
energy will stay south of the area. High pressure will build back
in on Thursday with dry conditions. Temperatures on Thursday will
remain stagnant and only warm a few degrees above freezing, with low
clouds preventing much fluctuation. Temperatures will start to
moderate on Friday as the upper level ridge shifts east and
longwave troughing develops over the plains, causing southwest
flow across the area. An initial shortwave could bring some
precipitation across the north on Friday, but confidence is low.
There is a better chance of snow on Friday night and Saturday as
the cold front swings through the region. Dry weather will then
return on Sunday with strong ridging building up from the south.
This will also cause warming temperatures. Highs on Monday will be
in the mid 40s to low 50s. This may be shortlived though as
another weather disturbance brings moisture Monday night and
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will still be above normal, but with
cloud cover and rain will only be in the upper 30s to low 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Surface winds have become more westerly through the morning,
pushing lake effect snow showers north of the terminals. A band of
snow continues a few miles north of SBN. I suspect this can
maintain itself for the next few hours, if not longer. Winds at
925 mb are forecast to become more northeasterly after 00z,
further suppressing lake effect snow activity outside the
terminals. Ceilings look to fluctuate near 2,000 feet through the
TAF period. Numerous observations downstate are reporting BR.
This will be monitored for future issuances.





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