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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222151
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
551 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Pleasant weather persists through the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s. Dry conditions continue through early to midweek.
Temperatures trend much more seasonable next week with highs in the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

A great night for opening the windows is in store as lows drop into
the low to mid 50s! Skies will be mostly clear with light easterly
winds. 2:49 AM EDT on Saturday marks the Autumn equinox and the start
of fall! A beautiful day is on tap for the first day of fall with
plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s Saturday afternoon!

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Forecast Details:

- Conditions remain dry and warm through the weekend

- Slightly cooler temperatures next week, near seasonable levels

- A very low confidence chance for showers midweek

Tropical Storm Ophelia is organizing off the coast of North
Carolina. Ophelia is expected to make landfall on Saturday and track
up the East Coast. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper level low is developing
over the northern High Plains while an upper level trough emerges
over Ontario. We end up sandwiched between these features, which
blocks any meaningful chance for precipitation in the coming days.

As the upper level low organizes and begins to move south through
the eastern Plains, mid to long range model guidance indicates this
system will remain well off to the west of the CWA. We remain locked
into dry east/northeast flow and pronounced upper level ridging.
Chances for precipitation will be few and far between in the long
term, with mid to long range models showing a few slight rain
chances next week but likely not taking into account just how dry it
will actually be. WPC QPF guidance indicates that rain will be
plentiful across the eastern Plains and along the East Coast while
the Great Lakes Region will continue to struggle to get any
measurable rain. There is a very low confidence chance for scattered
showers on Wednesday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in
the low 70s.

As a result of the notable lack of rainfall recently, Moderate
Drought conditions (D1) have expanded across much of northeast and
north-central Indiana. I would not be surprised in this dry pattern
if drought further develops in the coming weeks. From September 1-
22, Fort Wayne (KFWA) is experiencing the 6th driest start to
September since records began in 1897. If no rain falls at KFWA by
the end of the month, it will be the driest September on record.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 457 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

An extended dry pattern with mainly VFR conditions will persist
through an indefinite period ahead. It does look like there is an
outside chance for radiation fog toward daybreak tonight. Have
held off with any mention of fog given the ongoing very dry
conditions and lack of model support.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Johnson
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Skipper


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