343
FXUS63 KIWX 180455
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1255 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions to persist through at least the start
  of the upcoming weekend. Drought conditions will continue to
  worsen.

- Low humidity values combined with little/no chance of
  rainfall will allow for heightened concerns for field and
  grass fires.

- Very low confidence chances for light rainfall Sun into Mon
  are unlikely to help the very dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The region will remain sandwiched between a nearly stationary,
stacked upper low over the western Carolinas and a deep upper low
over N Utah. The Utah low will move NE with the upper ridging
keeping it well west of us, resulting in a continuation of the
stagnant pattern through at least Saturday with temperatures well
into the 80s and maybe making a run at 90. Deeper moisture will
remain west of the area for the foreseeable future with little
overall increase arriving until maybe late this weekend.

Evapotranspiration readings at the office have shown a steady loss
of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of moisture every day for the past week,
with very limited hope for needed, meaningful rainfall anytime soon.
In addition, afternoon RH values will likely dip to either side of
30%, further drying grasses and crops with burn bans starting to be
implemented in some areas of eastern Indiana into Ohio. Winds will
remain on the lighter side, limiting concerns for red flag
conditions.

Yet another low will move into the SW US late this week and make an
attempt to move towards the region. Medium range models vary on
nearly every details of this wave (moisture, strength, timing and
track) resulting in a very low confidence forecast with any minimal
chances likely remaining confined to W/NW areas and probably not
even worthy of the slgt chc to low chc pops currently depicted in
the model blend. Confidence is just as low into next week with
handling of additional energy as the ridging finally begins to give
way, but deeper moisture needed for meaningful rainfall likely
remains locked south or west of the area. Suffice to say even if
some rainfall occurs, it will be a far cry from what is needed to
start moving the drought conditions in the opposite direction.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper low was nearly stationary over the Appalachian Mountains
early tonight. This system will eventually drift north and
spread a few mid clouds into northeast Indiana. GFS BUFKIT
soundings indicate some Atlantic moisture in the mid levels
reaching the area in the form of mid level clouds. More importantly,
some low level marine moisture spreading in from the east was
just upstream of FWA. Some of this moisture appears to be from
the very warm surface of Lake Erie. The latest HRRR still
indicated IFR fog forming over northeast Indiana in this zone of
higher moisture, so have continued with the ongoing IFR fog
mention in the FWA TAF.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper