Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 191953
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
253 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1216 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Dry conditions will continue into this evening. A storm system
will bring a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Light snow and ice accumulations will
make for difficult travel during this time. Precipitation changes
over to spotty drizzle and light rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening before ending. Drier conditions will then follow Thursday
through early Saturday with moderating temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

The next in a never-ending parade of shortwaves to take a northeast
track from the Four Corners to the Upper Midwest/Western Lakes will
bring another round of mixed wintry precipitation and hazardous
travel later tonight into Wednesday morning. Excellent
warm/moist advection surge on the eastern fringe of associated
height fall centroid track will bring a 3-5 hour period of mainly
snow centered around the Wed AM commute. Deeper moisture axis within
leading LLJ core clips areas mainly along/south of US 24 where
1"/hour snowfall rates and higher snow totals are expected. Mid
level dry slot and warm layer aloft then arrives from sw to ne by
mid morning changing precipitation over to areas of light freezing
rain/drizzle as lower level isentropic ascent persists in advance of
the system occluded front. Sfc temps finally nudge above freezing
during the day with areas of drizzle/fog and scattered showers
likely continuing before occlusion swings through in the evening
bringing an end to pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

The bulk of guidance continues to favor a stronger/more phased mid
lat cyclone to rapidly deepen ene through the Upper Midwest and
Western/Northern Great Lakes this weekend. This more northerly track
favors an all rain event locally later Saturday into Saturday
night...with the potential for headline level winds in intense cold
advection regime Sunday. The next system to watch will be toward the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

VFR conditions continue during the afternoon today and into the
overnight period as high clouds continue to dominate. As we head
towards 6z tonight, expect the column to continue to moisten and
for snow to get underway between 7 and 9z at FWA and closer to 12z
at SBN. Then expect a transition to freezing rain as we head into
the daylight hours with warmer air beginning to work in aloft.
Flight conditions will fall into MVFR during the morning hours
with the snow and freezing rain and may be able to reach down into
IFR VISBY especially if fog or drizzle occurs. Have also added a
few hours of LLWS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for
     INZ017-018-020-022>027-032>034.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     INZ005>009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to noon EST /11
     AM CST/ Wednesday for INZ003-004-012>016.

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ077>081.

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for
     OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     OHZ001-002.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller


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