Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 082015
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the low to mid
60s areawide amid a cool, breezy onshore flow. Surface high pressure
will consolidate along the southeastern coast tonight as ridge
axis aloft noses northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico. As this
occurs, surface gradients will loosen slightly resulting in light
to near calm winds tonight. Clear skies and near calm conditions
will allow excellent radiational cooling overnight which will help
lows fall to well below normal readings. Lows are will be in the
low to mid 30s across inland southeast GA, upper 30s to low 40s
across inland northeast FL, and in the low 50s along the immediate
coast with the onshore flow. Some areas across north may touch the
freezing mark but this is expected to brief and localized, so
opted against any freeze headlines. That said, similar to this
morning, areas of frost will be possible across inland locations
of southeast GA Tonight, thus a Frost Advisory has been headlined.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Lower tropospheric high pressure will become centered across
southeast GA on Tuesday, weakening flow . Meanwhile, a weak mid-
level impulse will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region
through Tuesday night. This will escort mid and high level cloud
cover into and across the area through Wednesday morning. Under
clear skies along with persistent onshore flow, temperatures will
trend a bit warmer with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s Tuesday
afternoon. High clouds will limit radiative cooling Tuesday night,
keeping lows right around normal.

High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to dominate through
Wednesday as it expands and broadens eastward into the western
Atlantic. This will increase the onshore flow component as surface
winds veer more easterly through Wednesday. High clouds will
continue to drift overhead through Wednesday atop the apex of the
ridge aloft. Increasing onshore flow will trend dewpoints upward and
may allow for scattered stratocumulus along the coast.
Temperatures will continue to trend toward normal and may rise a
degree or two above normal by Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue through the
weekend as layered ridging dominates the pattern. Prolonged
moistening onshore flow and light winds increase fog potential
each morning late this week and into the weekend. Our next shot at
rain will be early next week as a broad cutoff upper low across
the southern Plains ejects northward ahead of another potent
upstream system, digging across the western US. That said, there
is considerable uncertainty with the associated surface front,
which may stall north of the area. Temperatures will trend warmer
and eventually above normal by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will continue through the period. East to northeast
winds at 10-15g20 knots will drop below 10 knots around 00z.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will continue to weaken through mid week as
near-stationary high pressure centers itself slightly west of the
area waters across southeastern Georgia. Wind and combined seas will
continue to decrease, alleviating hazardous small craft conditions.
Fair boating conditions and lighter onshore winds are expected to
continue through the week and into the weekend as high pressure
expands into the the western Atlantic.

RIP CURRENTS: High Risk at northeast Florida beaches through Tuesday
while a Moderate Risk is expected along the southeast Georgia
beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dispersion will decrease to lower end values across southeast GA on
Tuesday as high pressure becomes centered over the area, limiting
transport winds. Meanwhile daytime dispersion further south across
northeast FL will be more favorable, generally ranging from 30-60
units. Transport flow will increase Wednesday as high pressure
expands into the western Atlantic. Afternoon RH will remain near
critical across portions of southeast GA on Wednesday. Considerably
RH increase is expected through the week with prolonged period of
moistening onshore flow, which may lead to morning fog potential
late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  34  70  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  45  65  49  69  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JAX  43  68  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SGJ  51  68  53  70  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
GNV  41  73  46  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  75  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-
     Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...None.
&&



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