870
FXUS62 KJAX 171754
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
154 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Clear skies and gusty northwesterly winds will continue this
evening, with winds calming overnight. Low temperatures will drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s inland, and mid to upper 40s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Tuesday...High pressure builds overhead and temps return to near
normal levels in the 70s over inland areas under sunny skies,
while onshore flow will continue to keep highs along the Atlantic
Coast in the 60s. Winds will be much lighter tomorrow, generally
north at 5-10 mph in  the morning, becoming variable 10 mph or
less in the afternoon hours.

Tuesday Night...High pressure remains in place and under mostly
clear skies and light SW winds, expect good radiational cooling
conditions to drop overnight lows to below normal levels in the
lower 40s inland and mid/upper 40s along the Atlantic Coast.

Wednesday...High pressure slides into the Atlantic and a milder SW
flow will develop and push temps to above normal levels under
mostly sunny skies. Highs into the lower 80s are expected inland
along with SW winds 10-15 mph, while weak East Coast  sea breeze
development will keep Atlantic Coastal areas in the 70s.

Wednesday Night...Next cold frontal boundary will approach from
the West and slightly elevated flow at the surface will keep temps
closer to normal levels with lows in the 50-55F range. Clouds
increase during the overnight hours, but expect any rainfall
chances to hold off until Thursday morning. Late night fog chances
remain fairly low at this time due to the slightly elevated sfc
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Thursday...Cold frontal boundary expected to push through with
scattered showers across SE GA and isolated showers across NE FL,
but much weaker than last system, and at this point no
thunderstorm activity is expected as temps generally only rebound
into the 70s prior to the cold frontal passage. Windy conditions
are expected with West winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Chilly
temps filter into the region Thursday Night with lows falling to
near 40F over inland areas and 40s along the Atlantic Coast.

Friday...Cool high pressure builds into the region with light
winds and below normal temps under sunny skies only reaching into
the mid/upper 60s, along with another chilly Friday Night with
lows around 40F inland and 40s along the Atlantic Coast.

Saturday/Sunday...High pressure pushes into the Atlantic and once
again temps return to normal in the 70s on Saturday and to above
normal levels around 80F on Sunday, along with lows generally in
the 40s Saturday Night and in the 50s Sunday Night. For now, long
range models continue dry conditions through the weekend time
frame.

Monday...Long range models (GFS/ECMWF) both in general agreement
with increasing moisture levels aloft and some sort of frontal
boundary/low pressure system tracking into the SE US states and
close enough to the local area to introduce at least scattered
showers to the forecast, but will leave out any thunderstorm
activity at this time frame. Max temps likely to remain at above
normal levels with highs in the 70s SE GA and lower 80s NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all sites. Gusty
northwesterly winds will continue through sunset, calming
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Winds and seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory conditions
through this evening for the near shore waters, and later tonight
for the offshore waters. High pressure overhead will keep winds
calmer on Tuesday and Wednesday, before another cold front
approaches, bringing isolated showers Thursday over the local
waters and elevated winds behind the front. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip current risk Tuesday as winds
shift northerly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Critically low RH values around 20% are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons over inland areas, but winds will remain
below 15 mph, so fire weather headlines are not expected. Low
daytime dispersions are expected on Tuesday due to the high
pressure center in place, while elevated daytime dispersions are
expected on Wednesday due to the warmer than normal temps and
increasing SW winds to around 10 mph on the backside of the high
pressure center.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Minor flooding continues on the St Marys River at Macclenny today,
with the forecast showing it dropping below minor flood stage on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  75  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  67  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  43  73  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  46  69  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  42  77  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  41  78  41  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$