Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251747
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
147 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Expect mainly VFR conds through the evening hours. With light and
variable winds at most inland locations. Seabreeze has developed
and has moved inland to the I-95 corridor this afternoon and will
continue to slowly progress westward this afternoon. Some very
short-lived pop-up isolated showers have developed along the sea
breeze. Isold showers are anticipated to develop further inland
this mid afternoon as sea breeze continues to push west. Light
winds and moist lower atmosphere will bring better chances for a
widespread dense fog event tonight into early Monday morning. Cigs
and vsby should start decreasing earlier, between 06-08z Monday to
MVFR with further deteriorating conditions after 08z through 13z
where cigs and vsbys can be LIFR/IFR during this period. Cigs/vsbys
will improve between 14 and 15z Monday, and become VFR during mid
morning as northeast winds pickup at 5 to 7 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1101 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today...Mid level shortwave/disturbance continues to push NE
through coastal SE GA early this morning and will exit into the
Carolinas after sunrise. In the wake of this feature already have
patchy dense fog developing over inland NE FL/inland SE GA and
will need to monitor for possible localized dense fog advisory
towards sunrise as clearing skies aloft will help aid in fog
formation. Otherwise drying atmosphere and weak surface pressure
gradient across the region will lead to low rainfall chances in
diurnal heating this afternoon. Max Temps will continue above
normal and reach into the mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s at
the beaches and this will lead to a weak East Coast sea breeze
pushing inland but still only expect widely scattered showers
along this feature during the afternoon hours as the drying
airmass aloft and the weak subsidence in the wake of departing
should limit convection.

Tonight...Weak pressure gradient and mostly clear skies during the
evening hours should lead to enough cooling of the boundary layer
and this combined with moist low levels/light NE flow should lead
to dense fog formation after midnight with widespread <= 1/4 mile
vsbys and dense fog advisories appear likely area-wide as temps
fall into the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

An upper ridge continues to build eastward across the region while
Tropical Storm Zeta moves north-northwestward into the Gulf around
the southern periphery of the ridge. With dry mid to upper level
air in place, Monday will be mainly dry with an isolated shower
possible in north-central Florida. On Tuesday, developing
southerly flow will begin to lift deep tropical moisture into the
region increasing chances for rain to the area. Temperatures will
be above climo with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

On Wednesday, a cut off low will move through the Southern Plains
and likely sweep up Zeta, merging it into our next cold front
moving through the Deep South. Ridging over the region shifts
eastward developing deep southerly flow over the area continuing
to lift moisture into the area increasing rain chances ahead of
the cold front. The cold front pushes through the area on Friday
filtering cooler, drier air in for the weekend. Highs will
continue to be above normal through Thursday night, peaking in the
mid-upper 80s, dipping to the upper 60s-low 70s overnight. Behind
the front, we may see daytime temperatures back in the 70s and
overnight lows back in the mid 50s-low 60s across inland portions
of the area.


.MARINE...

Long period swells from distant TC Epsilon continue to slowly
subside today but lingering 5-7 ft seas offshore this morning will
continue SCA with this package, while combined seas mainly 3-5 ft
for the nearshore waters. With High pressure lingering north of
the waters Mon/Tue expect onshore NE to E winds around 10 knots
with combined seas falling to 2-4 ft, then as High pressure pushes
offshore in advance of approaching cold front winds become
southerly Wed/Thu and increase to 10-15 knots with seas 3-5 ft.

Rip Currents: High risk continues along the NE FL coast with
rough surf/breakers lingering in the 3-6 ft range, while lower
surf/breakers of 2-4 ft along the SE GA coast supports solid
Moderate risk. Moderate risk expected for both NE FL/SE GA beaches
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  83  66  83  69 /   0   0  10  30  10
SSI  70  79  70  79  72 /   0  10  10  30  10
JAX  69  83  71  84  72 /  10  10  10  40  20
SGJ  71  84  73  84  73 /   0  20  20  30  10
GNV  68  87  70  87  71 /  10  10  10  50  20
OCF  69  88  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&



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