Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 171346
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
946 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Sfc data shows cold front stretching from the NC outer banks to
srn SC to south central GA, and into the wern FL panhandle. Front
will slowly shift southeastward today. Boundary layer flow ahead
of the weak front from the southwest and ridge aloft at 500 mb
remains over central parts of FL. Water vapor imagery and model
cross section shows significant dry air aloft that will generally
limit convection today and this evening. The 500 mb temp also
fairly warm at -5C. Nonetheless, sufficient moisture in the low
levels and forcing along the front will likely generate isolated
to possibly scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
evening from coastal GA to the Suwannee Valley area, including
areas around metro JAX.

The late arrival of the weak cold front and plenty of sun will
allow max temps to still reach the lower 90s most areas. Elevated
dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices to be in
the upper 90s to just over 100. Record heat possible with current
records noted below:

Jacksonville: 91 set in 1989
Gainesville: 93 set in 1925
Alma: 89 set in 1989
St Simons Island: 88 set in 1972

Little change in the update for today with minor tweaks to the
convection timing and POPs. Carried POPs into the evening hours
and shifting isolated to scattered convection southward as the
front advances slowly into northeast FL. Also, limited coverage
of t-storms to more isolated coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail. Light south to southwest flow less than 10
kt through early afternoon. Wind shifts at KSGJ due sea breeze. A
low chance of convection with isolated showers and a few storms
possible later today as a cold front moves through so VC wording
looks good at this time. Still a threat of some convection in the
evening hours as the front moves into the region. Winds will shift
to northerly after midnight most TAF sites, with stronger north-
northeast wind at KSSI up to 15G25kt.

&&

.MARINE...Southwest flow initially, will transition to south and
southeast as ATLC sea breeze develops. Cold front will move into
the nrn zones this evening, with stronger northerly winds moving
into the GA waters by midnight or a couple of hours after that.
Current forecast good with minor adjustments for morning wording.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today, with a high
risk expected on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  67  76  61 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  87  72  76  65 /  30  30  20  20
JAX  92  72  79  67 /  30  40  30  30
SGJ  88  73  81  72 /  20  50  50  40
GNV  93  72  84  68 /  20  30  40  10
OCF  93  71  87  70 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/Sandrik


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