


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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653 FXUS63 KJKL 231923 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 323 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat builds this week. Heat indices peaking in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many locations through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025 The latest surface analysis from across the area shows surface high pressure parked over much of the CONUS. This has allowed mostly sunny skies, dry weather and hot temperatures to build into eastern Kentucky. Temperatures early this afternoon have already started to climb into the upper-80s with a few low-90 degree spots. Also, heat indices have climbed to the upper-90s to low-100s. Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to climb into the low to mid-90s with heat indices still ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Due to this potential and the potential for even warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday, the Heat Advisory was expanded to include all of the JKL CWA. Along with the high heat indices, the potential for pop-up thunderstorms will exist this afternoon. While forecast soundings hint at higher CAPE across the area, there`s very little shear which will limit stronger storms. Nonetheless, an inverted-V sounding with high DCAPE and high PWs could combine to bring gusty showers/storms if they were to develop. If showers and storms do develop, they`ll dissipate toward the late evening into the overnight. A quiet overnight is expected as clearing skies are likely. However, widespread valley fog is forecast to develop overnight but will dissipate once sunrise occurs. Tuesday brings another round of hot and steamy temperatures with forecast highs being a few degrees warmer than that of Monday. Also, valleys that see fog could stay insulted leading to little micropockets of warmer temperatures across the area which will lead to localized higher highs and higher heat indices. Shower and storms chances will exist again tomorrow but with the center of the high being closer to the area, the chances are pretty slim. Otherwise, another hot and humid overnight is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Overall the period will be highlighted by highs in the low to mid-90s for today and mid to upper-90s for Tuesday. Heat indices will remain in the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will be rather mild as lows are forecast to only fall into the upper-60s to lower-70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025 Surface high pressure is expected to remain entrenched over the area for the start of and through much of the entirety of the forecast period. Wednesday afternoon will feature a chance for afternoon showers and storms as the right entrance region of an upper-level jetstreak passes across the Great Lakes. However, the strong 590+ decameter ridge will remain in place through much of the forecast period. Afternoon showers and storms will provide some relief but the ridge doesn`t show any signs of breaking down until height falls are seen Sunday going into Monday as a weak upper-level trough tries to dive toward the CWA. In summary, the forecast period will be highlighted by summertime temperatures. Some near record breaking in the case of weaker JKL high temperature records. Afternoon showers and storms will provide some relief but highs will still range in the upper-80s to lower-90s. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper-60s to lower-70s. A weak disturbance is progged to finally break the ridge going into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025 Surface high pressure has helped terminals return to VFR conditions for this TAF issuance. VFR conditions will largely prevail through the overnight; however, as valley fog develops later tonight, terminals KJKL and KSME could see reduced categories. Once fog burns off after 12Z, terminals will return to VFR. Lastly, winds will be light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...VORST