Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231601
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1101 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fast-moving disturbance brings isolated to widely scattered
  showers this afternoon into the early evening. A few of the
  stronger showers may produce small pea-size hail.

- Another cold front and an upper level disturbance will move
  through the region late Friday night and Saturday, bringing a
  potential for light snow accumulations, especially for the
  highest elevations in southeast Kentucky.

- A potent weather system looks to be on track to affect the
  region around the middle of next week, bringing windy conditions
  and a potential for thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

Clouds have broken up quickly and very near term sky cover has
been lowered. Will still look for a modest increase in clouds as a
low potential for showers quickly moves southeast across the
region with a weak front this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

With no significant changes to the forecast, and with this
already being the second update this morning, will only update
NDFD with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 554 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

Made some minor adjustments to PoPs through Saturday afternoon.
Also updated Sky grids using the HREF to bring higher cloud
coverage this afternoon and early evening with the development of
isolated to widely scattered showers. Also blended in latest
observed trends with temperatures, winds, and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

Much of the short term period will see the region lie within the
PVA (i.e., positive vorticity advection) region of an upper and
mid-level trough with axis remaining just west of the area, which
will result in upper disturbances moving across the area and
keeping the weather unsettled.

Surface cold front crossed the region overnight and will
considerably dry the atmosphere this morning, but an additional cold
front accompanies the next wave this afternoon and swiftly moves
across the area. CAMS suggest sufficient moisture and instability
(generally up to 200-250 J/kg MUCAPE) for isolated to widely
scattered showers developing along the front. Some of the more
vigorous showers could produce some pea-size hail. Given the fast
motion of the showers and the relatively drier air mass,
preferred to keep PoPs in the slight chance to low-end chance
range, with highest PoPs (around 30 to 40) as the front moves to
the higher terrain of southeastern Kentucky.

After a brief respite from this front, the next wave enters our
northwestern counties in the pre-dawn hours Saturday, with the cold
front moving quickly southeast across the CWA by midday. The upper
trough with this wave is much more amplified, with a considerably
stronger push of cold air accompanying the front. Thus, expect
fairly widespread precipitation (60 to 90 PoPs east of Interstate
75, lower to the west) initially falling as rain, with a mix with
or changeover to snow as low-level partial thicknesses crash to
below critical thresholds to support snow. Any snow accumulations
will be minimal, especially given the time of day and antecedent
warm temperatures, though perhaps an inch or two is possible over
the highest terrain of southeastern Kentucky, particularly the
Black Mountain area. Expect highs for the day Saturday to occur
during the morning hours before cold frontal passage, with morning
temperatures falling from the mid 30s to lower 40s to the upper
20s to mid-30s by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

A rather active period is expected for the long-term period. First
the period starts with surface high pressure building in behind an
exiting clipper system. Sunday is expected to be dry with
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper-50s. As a shortwave
tracks through Canada, a weak cold front will dive out of the Great
Lakes into the Commonwealth late Sunday night and linger in the
vicinity through early Monday morning. Large scale forcing and
moisture are lacking; therefore, PoP chances are fairly limited to
20-30% through Monday morning.

Weak high pressure builds back into the region for Monday afternoon
with temperatures climbing into the mid-60s. However, the dry
weather will be short-lived as a warm frontal boundary lifts
northeast through the region late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and a
few thunderstorms are possible late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning with the boundary. As the parent low responsible for the
warm front approaches the region, increasing and lingering PoP is
expected for Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the upper-60s
to low-70s as the area falls under the regime of the warm sector.
Also, a strong LLJ will work into the region with increased
southwesterly winds building into the region for Tuesday. The
surface low continues to eject northeast into New England overnight
Tuesday into early Wednesday and when it does, the associated cold
front will cross the the region. This front could bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The SPC has highlighted
Wednesday in their extended outlook as a day to watch due to the
possible severe weather associated with the cold front. Exact severe
weather mode is unknown but a squall-line along the cold front seems
to be the plausible outcome. This will continue to be monitored in
coming model runs.

Behind the exiting system, a lingering stationary boundary is
forecast to develop which allow for continued PoP chances through
the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures are forecast to
remain above average with repeated rounds of showers through the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024

Terminals at 11z were between IFR and low-MVFR cigs. Expect
conditions to remain steady-state initially but then begin to
gradually improve through the MVFR category through the late
morning before becoming VFR in the afternoon. Increasing west to
northwesterly winds are expected Friday afternoon with sustained
10 knot wind and gusts upwards of 20 knots through 00Z before
diminishing toward light and variable for the remainder of the
period. A front will push through the region late this afternoon
and/or early evening, with isolated to widely scattered showers
developing. As confidence in showers occurring at any one terminal
are relatively low, opted to leave out any categorical mention of
SHRA at this time. Toward the end of the TAF period, low-level
cloud cover will begin to increase especially toward KSYM as the
next system approaches.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC


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