613
FXUS63 KJKL 150835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through this
  evening. After a lull on Thursday, the shower and thunderstorm
  chances return to close out the week.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  through the work week following a bit of a cool down today
  owing to the showers around.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of stacked low pressure
spinning over Kentucky and slowly working east. This has kept damp
conditions around through the night with times of showers and fog
beneath mostly cloudy skies and amid light southerly winds.
Temperatures and dewpoints are similar throughout the forecast
area - in this mild and moist environment - with readings in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, most places.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in better
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
compared to 24 hours ago. They all depict an open 5h low easing
east through Kentucky today along with a healthy amount of mid
level energy. The cyclonic flow associated with this low also
tracks off to the east later tonight with a weak area of ridging
moving to over eastern Kentucky on Thursday - as 5h heights peak
that afternoon. Thereafter, the pattern starts to flatten and more
energy starts to work into the state well in advance of the next
area of troughing inbound from the southern Plains. The model
spread has shrunk with the latest runs on account of the ECMWF
and NAM/GFS timing of the exiting trough being more similar.
Accordingly, the NBM was used as the starting point for the short
term grids along with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for
PoPs and timing through tonight.

Sensible weather features a damp and somewhat cool day with
scattered to numerous showers and potential thunderstorms around
into the evening. Some drying will take place tonight, but most
likely this will only prompt the development of a thicker, and
possibly widespread, blanket of fog for much of the late night
hours. In addition, the higher moisture than normal will make for
another mild night and near uniform temperatures. Thursday looks
to be one of the drier days of the week but still a stray shower
or storm will be possible late in the afternoon and during the
evening - mainly in the east. Less showers around will make for a
warmer day with near normal temperatures, as well.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances through this evening. The temperatures and
dewpoints from the NBM were not adjusted much considering the high
levels of RH through the night time periods.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

Eventful extended period yet again. The period will start Thursday
night with increasing clouds, followed by incoming showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday, as a stationary front is
laid out across the state.  This will eventually transition to a low
pressure system and warm front moving through the state throughout
the day on Saturday, combined with an upper level shortwave and low
moving across the state. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms
on both days, mainly in the afternoon during peak heating. SPC and
WPC both have marginal risk areas across the CWA from Friday into
Saturday morning, so will need to keep an eye out on convection
during this time period. This system will eventually exit on Sunday.
However, NW flow at the surface on the back edge of the shortwave,
and residual moisture at the surface, will lead to chance pops in
the afternoon, mainly in the far eastern CWA.

Monday looks to be one of our better days during the extended
period, with a brief upper level ridge passing over during the first
half of the day, and fair weather diurnal clouds expected. However,
by the afternoon a shortwave starts to impact the Ohio Valley from
the west, which could lead to some isolated pops as it passes over,
mainly during the evening and overnight for the JKL CWA.

Admittedly models are not in good agreement through much of the
extended period, but by Tuesday, they are completely unreliable. The
NBM went with chance pops throughout the day, likely pulling from a
combination of no pops and high pressure from the ECMWF, and the GFS
which shows 2 separate systems passing over the state during the
day with more widespread pops.

Overall, temperatures should remain fairly even-kill throughout the
period despite the frontal boundaries and airmass changes. Highs
should generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in
the upper 50s and low 60s. Monday will start to see some change in
this pattern. Monday morning will see the lowest temperatures in the
mid and upper 50s due to mostly clear skies and high pressure
overhead, leading to some potential ridge/valley differences. By
Tuesday, stronger SW flow will take hold, which could potentially
increase afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Then again,
this is also the point in the forecast where uncertainty is high, so
these values are subject to change over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

After a brief lull in the convection, another round of showers
and potential thunderstorms will impact the area into dawn. Any
breaks in, or thinning of, the cloud cover and precipitation will
continue to produce fog through 13Z. Thus, expect a changeable
mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions through the morning and
possibly carrying into early afternoon, with MVFR conditions more
likely to prevail between until around 18Z when VFR conditions
should be able to hold outside of showers and storms. Winds will
largely remain light through the period, through any stronger
storm near TAF sites could produce a brief period of gusty and
erratic winds. A more persistent northwest wind of 5 to 10 kts is
expected to set in later in the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF