Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 261502
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1102 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...
After several days of cloudy, dreary conditions, the sun has made
an appearance today. With that said, there does remain quite a bit
of moisture in the boundary layer as noted in this mornings RAOB
sounding with a PWat of 1.85 inches. In addition, we remain weakly
confluent due to a weak broad surface trough that extends from a
surface low off the Carolina coast. This feature is also keeping
our winds southwest to west a little longer than previously
thought. As of now though, the only showers are associated with a
line slowly meandering east southeast across the extreme southeast
Gulf waters.

Only time will tell if these showers will hold together as we
progress into the afternoon. They are not at least not making
quick progress towards the island chain at this time. The only
caveat will be if additional showers develop ahead of this line
due to aforementioned weak confluence. There are hints of this
trying to occur across the Florida Bay waters. However, these
showers seem to be struggling as they push towards the upper Keys.
Speaking of the upper Keys, a combination of the tail end of the
surface trough and a thermal low developing over the southern
mainland, will promote localized wind surge off the upper Keys
this afternoon.

All of that said, a combination of the weak trough lifting out of
the area and dry air filtering into the area, have opted to leave
only slight PoPs for today. Therefore, no changes needed or
planned for the short term.

&&

.MARINE...
The Florida Keys lie at the tail end of a surface trough that
extends from a surface low of the Carolina coast. This is
promoting mainly west winds this morning. As this trough lifts out
of our area, ridging will move in from the west and breezes will
clock around to northwest this afternoon and evening. Currently
gentle to occasional moderate breezes are being recorded at all
marine observation sites. Off the upper Keys a localized surge
will occur with moderate breezes expected. Otherwise, breezes
slacken this evening through Wednesday as ridge moves across the
region. Look for breezes to become southerly and sharply freshen
by Thursday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals through the forecast period. Dryer air in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere started to move into our CWA as seen
on our 12Z sounding. Therefore, we expect mostly dry conditions at
both terminals today. Surface winds will be out of the southwest to
west between 3 to 9 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....KR
Data Acquisition.....MRR

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