Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 131441
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1041 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms overnight have
decreased in coverage through the morning. The best low-level
convergence is across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where a
traffic jam continues to produce scattered thunderstorms,
bookending a decaying MCV.

The low-level ridge axis stretches west-southwest across south-
central Florida. Moderate east to southeast breezes prevail across
the island chain under partly cloudy skies. This morning`s KKEY
RAOB sampled 1.9" of PW with a little warming noted near 700 mb.
We issued an earlier updated to trim rain chances from 50 to 30%.
Satellite derived TPW products reveal a little drier air sliding
into the island chain over the next few hours, followed by a much
drier airmass over the central and southeastern Bahamas. No other
updates needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
A western Atlantic ridge axis will extend across the Florida
Peninsula this afternoon through Friday, resulting in gentle to
moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida
Keys. The ridge axis will drop down the Sunshine State this
weekend, resulting in light to gentle breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will persist for the
next 24 hours, with deep east-southeast flow. The main challenge
will be specifics of timing and placement of air mass convection
relative to the island terminals. Radar currently indicates a
fragmented line of showers extending south from near MTH and
moving northwest, which should keep enough threat for VCSH through
mid-afternoon at EYW. Then mid-level drying late today will
lessen convective threat for the evening hours. During the near-
sunrise hours, randomly scattered convective cells will prevail.
Outside convective cells, VFR conditions will prevail the large
majority of the time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  83  92  83 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  93  83  94  84 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Haner
Data Acquisition.....Haner

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