


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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459 FXUS63 KLBF 212023 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat continues into this evening across much of western and north central Nebraska. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are expected again tomorrow ahead of a cold front across portions of central into south central Nebraska. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening east of Highway 83. A few storms could be strong to severe with hail and strong winds. - Widespread thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon, primarily east of Highway 83. These storms could pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. - A return of near to slightly below average temperatures (highs in 70s to 80s) along with near daily threats for thunderstorms is expected into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Currently, temperatures have climbed into the middle to upper 90s across the area, with a surface trough positioned southwest to northeast near Highway 83. Dewpoints remain in the lower 60s ahead of this boundary, and this will lead to heat index values climbing above 100F as temperatures continue to warm this afternoon. Heat headlines remain in effect through Midnight tonight to cover this threat. By early this evening, the surface trough will begin to retreat westward into the Sandhills. This will also coincide with an increasing southerly low level jet, as an H85 low begins to eject northeastward into the Dakotas. This may be enough to initiate widely isolated thunderstorms this evening, though very warm temperatures aloft (H7 temps near daily maximums) introduce uncertainty in this. At least a brief window exists late this evening and tonight for a strong to severe storm, though this remains very conditional. Hodographs lengthen in the lowest few kilometers as the low level jet strengthens considerably. However, winds aloft remain somewhat meager, on the periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A lack of increasing flow aloft does limit deep layer shear tonight, and could hinder organization and longevity of any convection. Still, cannot rule out a few instances of hail and strong winds in any storms that do form. By tomorrow morning, an upper level low will begin to eject eastward into the northern Plains, with an associated surface low ejecting across South Dakota. This will drag a cold front into northwest Nebraska, and this front is expected to slowly progress from northwest to southeast through tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, temperatures will again climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat index values climbing to above 100 for portions of central and north central Nebraska. With this in mind, have issued a Heat Advisory for areas where both residence time ahead of the front and low level moisture is maximized. This front will also need to be monitored for thunderstorm development, as increasing ascent with the approaching upper low leads to cooling temperatures aloft. As CIN erodes tomorrow evening ahead of the surface cold front, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected east of HWY 83. Deep layer shear looks more supportive of updraft organization tomorrow afternoon, as winds aloft strengthen in advance of the encroaching upper low. In addition, a strengthening low level jet will lead to increasing curvature in the lowest few kilometers near and after sunset. Storm mode will largely control what severe threats materialize tomorrow, and some upscale growth is possible along the frontal boundary. However, should discrete or semi-discrete mode be maintained, a window exists for all severe hazards as the low level jet strengthens late evening. The greater risks look to be large hail and damaging winds, the latter becoming more prevalent after upscale growth. Frontal placement will also drive how widespread any threat is, and as of now this looks to be largely east of HWY 83. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 As the surface cold front finally clears the area Monday morning, a return of near to slightly below average temperatures (highs in the 70s to 80s) to the area. Guidance continues to point to a prolonged period of southwesterly flow aloft as well, as the area remains on the western periphery of strong upper ridging. This will bring a return of near daily threats for thunderstorms, as shortwaves eject northeastward into the Plains in the mean flow aloft. Ensemble guidance continues to advertise Tuesday into Wednesday as the wettest period next week, with mean 72hr QPFs in excess of 1" near and east of HWY 83 Tuesday through Thursday. As the upper ridge begins to slowly move east into late week, a return of northwest flow is possible across the Plains, and could bring a return of strong to severe thunderstorms.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight across western and north central Nebraska. By early tomorrow morning, low stratus will overspread terminals near the Pine Ridge, with MVFR/locally LIFR CIGs expected. This low stratus is expected to erode into tomorrow afternoon. A strengthening low level jet will again lead to southwesterly LLWS tonight into tomorrow morning across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty from the south today and tonight, with gusts of 25 to 35kts expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ005-006-008-009-024>027-035>038-057>059-069>071. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ007-010- 028-029. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ007-010-028- 029-038-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown