000
FXUS63 KLBF 072324
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
524 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder and windy on Saturday behind a cold front. A slight
  chance for light snow northern Nebraska (near and north of
  Highway 20) Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Highs cooler next week mainly in the 40s, yet above normal.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Strong westerly winds ongoing across the panhandle and western
Sandhills. Gusts earlier this afternoon exceeded 60 mph at
Alliance in Sidney. Within the North Platte CWA, the highest
gust so far has been 47 mph at Crescent Lake NWR in Garden
County. Record highs have already been broken today at North
Platte, Valentine and Broken Bow where highs have reached 68 to
72 so far today!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

For tonight, increased winds from previous forecast. West northwest
winds will continue at 20 to 30 mph and gusty this evening,
diminishing after midnight as the cold front pushes off to our east.
Low temperatures head into the upper 20s northwest Sandhills to the
lower to mid 30s.

On Friday into Friday night, a closed upper low will develop over
eastern North Dakota with an upper trough axis extending through
western South Dakota into northeast Wyoming to drop southeastward
Friday night. Meanwhile, a trough extending from Colorado into
western Kansas will provide some weak support for light
precipitation southwest and south of the forecast area Friday into
Friday evening. Despite a fairly moist layer in the mid levels,
removed the mention of slight chance POPs and flurries across the
far southwest. Still should see some virga, just nothing expected to
reach the ground. Highs Friday have trended up a few degrees, now
mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Retained slight chance POPs
across northern Nebraska, near and north of Highway 20 for Friday
night, and across the far northeast Saturday morning. Will also see
northwest winds increase Friday night during the upper trough
passage with cold air advection. The strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph
will be across north central Nebraska. Lows Friday night in the mid
to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Colder and continued windy Saturday with northwest winds 20 to 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph. Winds up to 600mb are fairly
unidirectional with winds near 40kt at the top of the mixed layer.
Highs upper 30s to around 40.

Ensemble guidance is in agreement in moving the upper trof
eastward across the Great Lakes an Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
A gradual transition from low amplitude northwest flow aloft
Sunday to a split flow regime with a strong ridge building over
the Northern Plains Wednesday/Thursday and a closed
low/persistent troughing over the southwestern US.

Can`t rule out low chances for precip Monday night into Tuesday
prior to the upper low development across the southwestern U.S.
The GFS and ECMWF have been generating some very light QPFs
across portions of the local area the past few days. Due to
model differences, the NBM remains dry.

Some moisture return from the Southern Plains is expected by
next Thursday.

Highs mainly in the 40s Sunday and Monday, upper 30s to lower
40s Tuesday, then upper 40s Wednesday, and lower 50s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central
Nebraska. The gusty westerly winds have subsided some across
southwest and south central Nebraska, though expected to persist
at KVTN through the rest of the period. A brief period of
westerly LLWS of 50kts is anticipated at both terminals from 00Z
to around 06Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken