704
FXUS63 KLBF 142335
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
  this evening, mainly affecting northern Nebraska. The hazards
  are severe wind gusts, large hail and the potential for
  landspouts or an isolated tornado.

- The next chance for severe weather arrives Sunday and lasts
  through Tuesday. It is important to note the area of concern for
  severe weather appears to be mostly south and east of wrn and
  ncntl Nebraska. Changes in the forecast location of the severe
  weather are likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A fairly vigorous and compact upper level low circulating across ern
WY/wrn SD this afternoon will move east through SD tonight. This
storm system produced about 20 or so severe wind reports across ID
Monday but is poised to produce less severe weather across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and this evening.

The severe weather concerns according to the RAP and HRRR are wind
gusts, large hail and the potential for landspouts and an isolated
tornado. The focus for severe weather this afternoon revolves around
a developing triple point across the Sandhills but the latest HRRR
and RAP model solutions suggest this feature is less pronounced. The
reason for this is that the Pacific front behind the dry surge is
rapidly overtaking this surge of dry air. Still, a triple pt should
develop near highway 83 by 00z. Isolated severe storm development is
possible along or just north of this area.

Another strong or severe storm could develop post-frontal across
nwrn Nebraska this afternoon posing a severe wind threat and perhaps
a marginal severe hail threat. A third area for isolated strong
storm development is possible in the deeply mixed super-heated air
across swrn Nebraska.

The storm activity across the north will move east through ncntl
Nebraska this evening while the activity south moves toward KS. The
latest HRRR/RAP model runs are showing potential for upscale growth
in both areas and the HRRR indicates the upscale growth across ncntl
Nebraska could lead to strong/severe wind gusts later this evening.

Winds aloft at h500mb will be strong near 40kts for this event and
the MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG in spots suggests isolated supercell
potential. Across much of the region it appears the strong shear
relative to the modest instability will limit severe storm coverage
to isolated. The BRN is less than 25 across much of ncntl Nebraska
this evening, according to the models.

Satellite shows a second upper low across ern ID/wrn WY this
afternoon; very close to the lead disturbance. It is extremely
unusual for two storm systems to be located so close together. The
result will likely be a second round of elevated, mainly diurnally
forced, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

POPs tonight and Wednesday lean on the short term model blend plus
the HRRR and RAP models. A limiter caps rain chances at 60 percent
tonight and this might be generous given the spartan storm
coverage suggested by the HRRR and RAP models. Scattered POPs are in
place Wednesday. The loss of diurnal heating Wednesday night should
present a dry forecast from late Wednesday evening onward.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A dry forecast is in place Thursday through Saturday.

The next substantial rain chance is Sunday and Monday and the
GFS, the faster model, has been advertising this for several model
runs. The ECM and GEM have sped up matching the timing of the GFS. A
long wave trof should build into the the wrn U.S. this weekend
drawing a belt of strong subtropical winds north toward Nebraska.
Winds aloft will become very strong, 50-70kts at h300mb, and this
belt of strong winds will be mostly focused south and east of
wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

Likely POPs are in place across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Sunday and Monday
for disturbances rotating northeast through the trof. Chance POPs
are in place Tuesday. The better chances for severe weather appear
to be south and east and this is based on the location of a sfc low
the models show across wrn KS. If the low forms further north or
west, wrn/ncntl Nebraska would be favored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across northern Nebraska
through ~03Z, impacting KVTN. This activity will exit towards
the north and east with broken to overcast MVFR ceilings left in
it`s wake across northern Nebraska overnight. A brief period of
IFR ceilings will be possible Thursday morning into early
afternoon for KVTN. For KLBF, ceilings are expected to remain
low-end VFR through the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Thursday mid-morning for both terminals, however,
confidence remains far too low in regards to specific timing and
impacts. Future amendments and inclusions are likely with
subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Viken