459
FXUS63 KLBF 212023
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues into this evening across much of
  western and north central Nebraska. Heat index values
  exceeding 100 degrees are expected again tomorrow ahead of a
  cold front across portions of central into south central
  Nebraska.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening east of
  Highway 83. A few storms could be strong to severe with hail
  and strong winds.

- Widespread thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front
  Sunday afternoon, primarily east of Highway 83. These storms
  could pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

- A return of near to slightly below average temperatures (highs
  in 70s to 80s) along with near daily threats for thunderstorms
  is expected into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Currently, temperatures have climbed into the middle to upper 90s
across the area, with a surface trough positioned southwest to
northeast near Highway 83. Dewpoints remain in the lower 60s ahead
of this boundary, and this will lead to heat index values climbing
above 100F as temperatures continue to warm this afternoon. Heat
headlines remain in effect through Midnight tonight to cover this
threat.

By early this evening, the surface trough will begin to retreat
westward into the Sandhills. This will also coincide with an
increasing southerly low level jet, as an H85 low begins to eject
northeastward into the Dakotas. This may be enough to initiate
widely isolated thunderstorms this evening, though very warm
temperatures aloft (H7 temps near daily maximums) introduce
uncertainty in this. At least a brief window exists late this
evening and tonight for a strong to severe storm, though this
remains very conditional. Hodographs lengthen in the lowest few
kilometers as the low level jet strengthens considerably.
However, winds aloft remain somewhat meager, on the periphery of
the upper ridge centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A
lack of increasing flow aloft does limit deep layer shear
tonight, and could hinder organization and longevity of any
convection. Still, cannot rule out a few instances of hail and
strong winds in any storms that do form.

By tomorrow morning, an upper level low will begin to eject eastward
into the northern Plains, with an associated surface low ejecting
across South Dakota. This will drag a cold front into northwest
Nebraska, and this front is expected to slowly progress from
northwest to southeast through tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this
front, temperatures will again climb into the upper 90s to low 100s,
with heat index values climbing to above 100 for portions of central
and north central Nebraska. With this in mind, have issued a Heat
Advisory for areas where both residence time ahead of the front and
low level moisture is maximized.

This front will also need to be monitored for thunderstorm
development, as increasing ascent with the approaching upper low
leads to cooling temperatures aloft. As CIN erodes tomorrow evening
ahead of the surface cold front, scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development is expected east of HWY 83. Deep layer
shear looks more supportive of updraft organization tomorrow
afternoon, as winds aloft strengthen in advance of the encroaching
upper low. In addition, a strengthening low level jet will lead to
increasing curvature in the lowest few kilometers near and after
sunset. Storm mode will largely control what severe threats
materialize tomorrow, and some upscale growth is possible along
the frontal boundary. However, should discrete or semi-discrete
mode be maintained, a window exists for all severe hazards as
the low level jet strengthens late evening. The greater risks
look to be large hail and damaging winds, the latter becoming
more prevalent after upscale growth. Frontal placement will also
drive how widespread any threat is, and as of now this looks to
be largely east of HWY 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

As the surface cold front finally clears the area Monday morning, a
return of near to slightly below average temperatures (highs in the
70s to 80s) to the area. Guidance continues to point to a prolonged
period of southwesterly flow aloft as well, as the area remains on
the western periphery of strong upper ridging. This will bring a
return of near daily threats for thunderstorms, as shortwaves eject
northeastward into the Plains in the mean flow aloft. Ensemble
guidance continues to advertise Tuesday into Wednesday as the
wettest period next week, with mean 72hr QPFs in excess of 1" near
and east of HWY 83 Tuesday through Thursday. As the upper ridge
begins to slowly move east into late week, a return of northwest
flow is possible across the Plains, and could bring a return of
strong to severe thunderstorms.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. By early tomorrow morning,
low stratus will overspread terminals near the Pine Ridge, with
MVFR/locally LIFR CIGs expected. This low stratus is expected to
erode into tomorrow afternoon. A strengthening low level jet
will again lead to southwesterly LLWS tonight into tomorrow
morning across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Winds remain gusty from the south today and tonight, with gusts
of 25 to 35kts expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
NEZ005-006-008-009-024>027-035>038-057>059-069>071.
Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ007-010-
028-029.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ007-010-028-
029-038-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown