680
FXUS63 KLBF 110907
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
407 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally near or above normal temperatures for the next week with
no widespread frost anticipated

- A few showers/storms south today, then more widespread tomorrow
afternoon with little to no severe weather threat

- More low end (<30%) chances of precip throughout the week,
  although a greater potential for more widespread thunder
  (60%+) Tuesday evening

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An upper level closed low spins near Las Vegas, while Nebraska lies
on the western periphery of a more prominent trough digging through
the Great Lakes and the Chesapeake. At the surface, high pressure
has settled onto the Great Plains in the wake of a quick-passing
cool front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Today and tonight... The surface high drifts east, resulting in
downslope west flow early in the day to become more southerly later
on for the region. The southerly low level return flow will help
pull moisture into Nebraska, as shown by dew points rising into the
mid/upper 40s by tonight. A developing lee side surface low will add
to the forcing ahead of the approaching upper low, and an isentropic
upglide regime takes hold. While the bulk of the rain shower
activity will take place in CO/KS, some showers and perhaps a storm
should be able to spread into southwest Neb toward sunset. A few
showers will also continue into the overnight hours as the upper low
eventually reaches eastern CO. Thunder parameters are very weak, and
severe weather is not anticipated, as MUCAPE will be limited to 500
j/kg and deep layer shear 20 kts. For max temps, bumped values up a
couple degrees over the previous forecast to account for fair skies
for at least the first half of the day and modest warm air advection
at H85. Guidance has trended slightly warmer, reflecting the 24 hr
temp changes of 3-4C at H5. Highs range from mid 70s in the
panhandle to near 80F in central Neb. Increased cloud cover tonight
should hold lows to the mid 40s (west) to lower 50s (east).

Tomorrow... The main upper low, as well as the surface low, cross
into western Kansas by the afternoon. Meanwhile, a clipper-like
system comprising a low and attendant cool front, race south from
the Prairie Provinces and reaches the SD/NE border by sunset. Low
level flow flips to southeasterly, which increases the moisture
advection further. Despite a weaker shear profile, instability seems
to increase across the Sandhills with mid-level lapse rates near 7
C/km and MU values nearing 1000 j/kg in spots. Short term model
guidance locks on to iso/sct showers becoming more widespread in the
afternoon. The severe weather threat still appears low, but pockets
of heavier precip is definitely in play. Recycled cool air at H85
and thicker cloud cover will keep max temps cooler in the south
compared to the north. The NBM envelope spread widens, so stayed
near the median values given the higher uncertainty. Highs should
range from upper 60s south of I-80 to near 80F along the SoDak
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Continued forcing and remnant moisture near the upper low will keep
a few rain showers around on Monday, but a stronger cool front
presents a more significant and widespread shot of moisture on
Tuesday. Will need to monitor for a window of strong or severe
storms across the Sandhills during the afternoon and evening.
Guidance points to a ribbon of higher CAPE values riding up the Hwy
83 corridor, while a newly approaching upper trough increases the
deep layer shear component. To round out the week, upper flow
becomes nebulous but a couple more surface boundaries slide through
the region. The forecast maintains periodic low end (20-30%) PoP. As
for temps, an H85 thermal ridge kicks into gear on Tuesday ahead of
the cold front. Guidance ranges from 15-20C in the Sandhills, which
could translate to lower/mid 80s in the south and upper 70s to the
north. The front presents a brief setback Wed and Thu, but highs
should rebound to the 70s/80s by the end of the week. Even with the
frontal passage, morning lows really don`t dip below 40F this
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
be light around 5 kts or less overnight. Winds will be out of
the west to southwest around 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Gomez