Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 022325
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
625 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SHORT TERM...

Tropical air mass steadily deepening over the area with humid
conditions and spotty showers. Michoud emergency manager reported
a sighted funnel cloud over the lower lobe of Lake Borgne by the
Great Wall around 330 pm. This is indicative of the instability
coming into play over the region. This may become a common
occurrence over the next several days. Otherwise, warm
temperatures and chance PoPs for the next couple of days. We will
be closely monitoring rainfall efficiency as this will become a
factor with each passing day, particularly once Cristobal starts
moving more northward in time.

.LONG TERM...

The extended is going to be highly dependent on a low confidence
forecast of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Some things that appear to
be more certain: heavy rainfall potential will be on the increase
with each passing day as the deeper moisture channel streaming
from the circulation is squarely over LA and southern MS. Some of
the rainfall would be beneficial in mitigating drought conditions
but don`t need too much of a good thing. Spring tides will also be
in place and will become augmented by deeper fetched onshore flow
and tightening pressure gradient to produce a coastal flood
threat. This will likely warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory for less
than 3 feet of inundation by the weekend, possibly replaced by
some type of warning thereafter. Again depending on future track
and intensity of Cristobal.

.AVIATION...

.UPDATED 2325Z...

A few isolated tropical showers will linger this evening before
sunset, but all activity should steadily diminish later this
evening revealing VFR conditions overnight. Some MVFR lower CIG`s
possible by daybreak, with intermittent lower flight categories
for KMCB due to patchy surface fog/low clouds. Conditions will
improve thereafter, but expect widespread spotty showers and
thunderstorms to develop on low-level boundary interactions,
likely racing north from coastal SE LA mid to late morning
tomorrow. Any one storm may contain temporary reductions in
visibility and gusty downdraft winds through the afternoon. KLG

.MARINE...

Steady onshore flow at moderate levels initially will be
increasing over subsequent days with the evolution and future
track of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Wave model guidance shows
packet swell generation emanating northward in the 12 to 14 second
period ranges Saturday and Sunday. This will produce steep waves
running 12 to 16 feet, primarily swell. Wind forecast will be
dependent on future track but currently showing increase to high
end SCA, if not gale/storm force by Sunday afternoon.

.DECISION SUPPORT...

Code: Blue
Activities: Monitoring T.S. Cristobal
            Critical DSS site support

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  86  69  87 /  20  70  10  50
BTR  72  88  70  88 /  20  70  10  50
ASD  72  87  70  88 /  20  70  20  50
MSY  75  86  73  87 /  20  70  10  50
GPT  73  84  72  85 /  30  70  20  50
PQL  70  85  69  87 /  30  70  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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