Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 150957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The remainder of this week and into the weekend looks to be a dry
forecast as surface high pressure builds in and upper level
troughing remains in place. Continental air mass has brought the
first light freeze of this fall season with many locations currently
near freezing. The back side of the cloud shield is rapidly moving
east and will be out of the CWA in an hour or less. Strong cold air
advection will keep the region well below normal again today but
with sunny skies finally returning. The forecast highs are right
close to blended guidance.

As the surface ridge building in shifts to just northeast of the
area on Friday morning, will likely have cold air drainage in
northeastern portions of the CWA (from MCB to ASD to PQL). Those
areas may once again dip down to just above freezing.

Temperatures will be moderating Friday and Saturday as the upper low
ejects northeast and 500mb heights increase. The GFS and ECMWF both
indicate that a weak upper level inflection will bring a reinforcing
cold front through the CWA Sunday night. Rain chances are not very
likely as it will be a moisture starved boundary due to a lack of
return flow ahead of it and generally just slightly strengthen
northerly surface flow.

Models show another shortwave passing over the CWA in the middle of
next week. The GFS solution keeps the local area dry until a
secondary/stronger trough moves in on Thanksgiving. The ECMWF
suggests some rain with the first one and more with the second.
Either way, later next week will be the next appreciable chance of
rain for the region.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

The widespread area of lower clouds will continue to clear out
east of KGPT. However, some patchy areas of lingering lower
clouds, partially due to proximity to lakes and rivers, may cause
temporary CIGS of 010-020 near or over KBTR and possibly KGPT
through the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
today through Friday. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A dome of surface high pressure with arctic air will continue to
settle over the western to central Gulf coast region today through
Friday. This will result in diminishing winds from the west,
however several more hours of winds near small craft advisory
criteria are likely across most of the coastal waters except the
far western zones. Winds are expected to drop to 5 to 10 knots
with seas 2 feet or less across all waters Friday afternoon and
remain in that range through the weekend, so good boating
conditions will prevail for a change. Northeast winds around 10
knots are expected early next week, then winds may rise a bit for
the middle of the week. 22/TD

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Freeze Warning through 9am today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  34  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  39  62  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  34  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>059-065-071-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ536-538-
     552-555-557-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ538-552-
     555-557-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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