702
FXUS64 KLIX 151140
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Another line of severe storms will move through the region late
  tonight ahead of the next cold front. This line of storms could
  produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures
  will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday
  morning.

- Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters tonight
  into Monday behind a strong cold front. A wind advisory is also
  in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake
  Pontchartrain on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters for this
evening leading up to the Gale Watch. Anticipate that the watch
will be upgraded to a warning later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Overall, there has been little change in the forecast from the
previous packages. A potent area of low pressure in the Midwest
and Great Lakes states will drive a very strong cold front through
the region Sunday night. An equally strong arctic high of at least
1030mb will then quickly build in behind the front on Monday. In
the upper levels, an associated longwave trough will continue to
dominate the eastern half of the country through the short term
period, and this will keep deep layer northerly flow in place. The
end result will be a colder and drier stretch of weather after the
front moves through.

However, before the front approaches, Sunday will exceptionally
warm as strong onshore flow develops and ushers in a significantly
warmer and more humid airmass by the afternoon hours. PWATS will
quickly rise to around 1.25 inches and temperatures will surge
into the low to even middle 80s. These conditions will help to
prime the atmosphere in advance of the front as conditions turn
fairly unstable. MLCAPE values are still expected to peak around
1500 J/KG Sunday evening in response to steepening mid-level
lapse rates that could reach as high as 7.5C/km just ahead of the
front. With strong low level forcing and ample positive vorticity
advection and lift aloft in place, there will be little if any
convective inhibition to speak of in the evening hours. As a
result, a fairly stout line of thunderstorms will develop over the
Arklatex and then push to the east-southeast into the region
Sunday evening. This fast moving line will encounter marginally
favorable shear conditions as it moves in with effective bulk
shear of 30 to 40 knots and 0-1km SRH values of around 150m2/s2.
Although the dynamics will be somewhat limiting, there will still
be the potential for a few bowing segments and damaging wind
events to occur over the northern and western portion of the CWA.

Later Sunday night, all of the convectively aided high resolution
guidance indicates that the initial line of convection will begin
to weaken as it moves toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.
However, the development of another LLJ over southern Mississippi
and lower Alabama will support the development of a pre-frontal
trough axis that could initially develop somewhere in the
vicinity of New Orleans and Gulfport. Increasing low level shear
will take hold in advance of this pre-frontal trough axis with
0-1km SRH values increasing to around 200 m2/s2 and effective
shear rising to 40 to 50 knots. With ample instability in place
and these favorable shear parameters, a few supercells could form
over extreme southeast Louisiana, the offshore waters, and the
Mississippi coast during the overnight hours Sunday, generally
between 2 AM and 5 AM. This is the area that would have the
highest risk of seeing a tornado or two develop during the
overnight hours, and we will need to monitor the trends to see if
this pre-frontal trough continues to be shown in the guidance.

Monday will be a day of rapid clearing as very strong negative
voriticty, dry air, and cold air advection takes hold.
Temperatures will start off in the 40s behind the front Monday
morning and will only rise into the 50s. These readings are a good
20 degrees below average for this time of year. Very windy
conditions are also expected on Monday in the wake of the front as
the strong high builds in from the north. Winds of 25 to 30 mph
with gusts over 40 mph are expected along the coast and south of
the tidal lakes. Given these conditions, a wind advisory is now in
effect for these areas. The other concern will be the high
potential for wildfires to occur as humidity values fall below 25
percent. A fire weather watch or red flag warning will likely be
issued during the day tomorrow. The colder air will continue to
feed in on the back of a strong 925mb thermal trough axis Monday
night, and a light freeze is anticipated for the northern half of
the forecast area. Given the warm conditions and greening up that
has occurred a freeze watch will likely be issued tomorrow and
this will be followed up by a freeze warning for the area on
Monday that will cover the Monday night freeze event. The colder
conditions will persist on Tuesday as a reinforcing dry frontal
passage occurs in the deep layer northwest flow regime. Highs will
once again only warm into the 50s and lows will cool into the 30s
and lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the
heart of the thermal trough finally beginning to shift to the
east. A light freeze may once again occur in the Pearl and
Pascagoula River drainages though.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Persistent troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS and a
strong ridge over the Rockies and Plains will keep northerly flow
in place through Saturday. This will result in continued very dry
conditions through the end of the week. However, temperatures
will quickly modify in the long term period as the main thermal
trough axis shifts well to the northeast of the region. In the low
levels, a broad surface high pressure system will remain centered
over the region and this will keep winds fairly light and
variable. Temperatures will remain cooler than average in the mid
to upper 60s on Wednesday, but will climb above average by
Friday and Saturday as readings reach into the low to mid 80s.
Given the dry airmass in place, a decent diurnal range of around
30 degrees will allow lows to fall into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

IFR or lower conditions in place at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC at forecast
issuance time, but expect those conditions to improve to at least
MVFR in the next couple hours. Increasing moisture will allow for
the development of cumulus clouds at mid-morning. The remainder of
the daytime hours should see primarily VFR conditions, but cannot
rule out some isolated showers moving rapidly northward.

As low pressure continues to develop over the middle Mississippi
River Valley today, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds
will increase across the local terminals with most experiencing 15
knots gusting to 25 during the last morning and afternoon. Timing
of the frontal passage overnight hasn`t changed a great deal. Used
a 2 hour TEMPO window for the expected thunderstorm line/frontal
passage and mentioned VRB30G40KT during that time, although
wouldn`t preclude higher winds. With frontal speed expected to be
in the 30 to 40 knot range, it will pass through all of our
terminals in the space of about 6 hours between 03z-09z. Behind
the front, may be a few hours of SHRA/TSRA, but most or all
terminals will be VFR by mid to late morning Monday. Winds will
continue to be an issue most or all day Monday, with sustained 20
to 25 knot winds likely at most terminals with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A deepening area of low pressure to the north of the region will
allow winds  to increase to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon hours
over the waters. Sunday night into early Monday will see a strong
cold front pass through the waters. As the front passes, winds will
quickly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with
higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 12 feet in
the open Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The
gale conditions will slightly improve into small craft advisory
conditions Monday night, and further easing of the winds will occur
on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered
over the waters. As the high becomes centered over the waters on
Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or
less.  Seas will also decrease back to 3 feet or less by Wednesday
morning.  These more benign conditions will linger through the end
of the week as the high pressure system remains in place over the
waters.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ056>060-
     064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG