Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 260518
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1118 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

.AVIATION...The fog and low stratus has taken longer to develop,
but conditions remain very favorable for this to occur. Light
onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots and little to spread between
nearshore water temperatures and dewpoints should allow for a fog
bank to form offshore and move inland over the next couple of
hours. LIFR visibilities are noted along the Alabama coast, and
this fog bank should expand to the west. Thus, a mix of IFR and
LIFR conditions is expected to develop at all of the terminals
between 06z and 12z and then persist through around 15-16z before
improving back into MVFR range. Similar conditions are forecast
after 00z tomorrow. PG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/

UPDATE...Main update is to add a mention of fog in the forecast
for tonight and tomorrow. Advection fog looks very favorable
tonight as light onshore flow of 5 to 10 mph allows warmer air to
pass over the cooler nearshore waters. In fact, low stratus is
forming over the waters and visibilities will start to fall soon.
This offshore fog will spread inland through the overnight hours.
Fog will also begin to develop by late this evening over Lake
Pontchartrain and could turn dense after midnight. A dense fog
advisory will be issued shortly for coastal portions of the CWA.
PG

AVIATION...Fog and low stratus will be the primary concern
through tomorrow morning for all of the terminal. Advection or sea
fog will overspread the area between 00z and 06z resulting in
prevailing LIFR ceilings of 300 to 500 feet and a mix of LIFR and
IFR visibilities between 1/4 and 3 miles at all of the terminals
after 06z. KGPT, KHUM, KNEW, KMSY, and KASD will be most impacted
by the reduced visibilties. Conditions will gradually improve
between 15z and 18z tomorrow with a return to MVFR conditions.
Further improvement into VFR range is expected by 21z tomorrow,
but this will be short-lived as another round of low stratus and
fog begins pushing inland after 00z tomorrow. PG

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/

AVIATION...

Mostly MVFR conditions as mid clouds will remain in place across
the terminals. Patchy dense fog possible especially at GPT as
marine fog could potentially advect under some of the mid level
clouds overnight.

MARINE...
Onshore flow will persist with light winds. The only major player
will be areas of potentially dense marine fog as warm advection
moves over the cool late winter waters of the Gulf and lakes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  78  62  79 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  62  78  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  62  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  73  60  74 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  74  60  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for LAZ040-049-050-
     056>070-072.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MSZ080>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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