088
FXUS63 KLMK 151152
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
752 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will press eastward across the
  region early this morning. Confidence is highest in southern
  Indiana.

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected this
  afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain may cause flooding
  problems in some areas by this evening, especially in southern and
  eastern sections of central Kentucky. There will also be a chance
  of severe storms, with all hazards possible, though strong wind
  gusts will be the main threat.

* Non-thunderstorm winds will be strong and gusty this afternoon
  through evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts over 40
  mph, possibly reaching 50 mph at times.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 752 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

After coordinating with IND and SPC, have shaved some counties off
of the west side of the Tornado Watch. Confidence is decreasing in
the likelihood of a significant tornado threat in southern parts of
the watch as well. At the time of this writing the only storms of
concern are from Madison to Middletown and heading to the east.
These storms have had a history of large hail and wind gusts to 70
mph.

Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

The line of storms along the cold front is entering western Kentucky
at this house and will continue to push eastward. Over central
Kentucky and southern Indiana, dew points are beginning to increase.
Now seeing dew points in the low to mid 50s. VAD wind profiles over
surrounding radars show a robust low level jet pumping moisture into
the region. Strong deep-layer shear has initially brought a line of
supercell storms through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At this time,
supercells are transitioning modes. To the north, there is a broken
QLCS and to the west, discrete cells are attempting to grow upscale.
As pressure gradients tighten, non-thunderstorm wind gusts steadily
increase with measure peak wind gusts of up to 50mph so far. Winds
are expected to continue to increase ahead of the line of storms. As
the line approaches the western CWA border, storms are not expected
to be as robust, given CIN over the region and drier mid-levels.
High low level SRH and shear values will continue to bring a concern
for tornadoes. However, LCLs are expected to be higher, which will
decrease the tornado risk compared to western states. As these
storms may continue to grow upscale, a main threat will become
significant wind. Looking at current satellite, an interesting
presentation over the Bluegrass shows quickly eroding cirrus, which
implies a dry layer. Therefore, storms will have a significant
amount of dry air to overcome in the mid and upper levels, which
could increase the wind threat at the column saturates. DCAPE values
are around 600 J/kg, which will also increase wind potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Before 12Z:

The line of strong storms that has been to our west since last
evening will continue to push eastward early this morning. Though
the storms should slowly begin to weaken as they press east,
especially east of I-65, strong shear and helicity still support the
possibility of isolated tornadoes in addition to damaging gusty
winds through sunrise. SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for much of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky to account for this.
Confidence is highest in southern Indiana, and lower in central
Kentucky especially east of I-65.

After 12Z:

The storms from overnight will continue to weaken and push off to
the northeast this morning. There will only be a brief break behind
this activity, though, as the next wave of showers and storms
spreads from south to north across the region later this morning and
into this afternoon. This convection will be occurring along and
ahead of surface low pressure advancing from Arkansas to Kentucky
and a 500mb speed max rounding the base of the upper trough over
Texas. Convective coverage will increase this afternoon as upper
divergence increases and a coupled upper jet develops over the mid-
Mississippi Valley. The exact evolution of the storms is still
something of a question mark, but at this time it appears that a
general mass of showers with embedded thunder this morning may
transition to a north-south band of deeper convection moving from
west to east across southern Indiana and central Kentucky from mid-
afternoon through mid-evening. Strong shear will be present with a
powerful low level jet stretching from Louisiana through the Ohio
Valley to Ontario. Weak instability and lapse rates cast a shadow on
just how likely strong to severe storms will be, but with so much
wind energy available it`s certainly possible for some of the storms
to produce very strong gusty winds, and the strong shear supports
the threat of an isolated tornado or two.

An impressive atmospheric river will bring deep moisture northward
from the central Gulf to the Great Lakes, with PWAT values well
above normal possibly approaching 1.50" in central Kentucky. Most
soundings are well saturated below the EL with tall thin CAPE and
deep warm cloud depths this afternoon and especially this evening.
General QPF southeast of a Bowling Green to Lexington line is in the
2-4" range, with training storms producing narrow stripes of 4-5" a
possibility. WPC has upgraded southern Kentucky to Moderate on the
ERO. After coordinating with ILN, have decided to extend the Flood
Watch northward east of Louisville. Can`t rule out further expansion
to the northwest as we monitor trends and CAMs through the day.

In addition to severe storm and flooding concerns, non-thunderstorm
winds will be strong and gusty today as well. While widespread rain
and clouds will limit mixing, wind gusts over 40 mph are still
likely, with some gusts up to 50 mph, given the dynamic nature of
this strong storm system. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
throughout the area.

Tonight most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will take place
this evening, with much less coverage after midnight, though still
with lingering showers ahead of an incoming cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Sunday the upper trough axis will pass overhead, accompanied by
scattered showers but no severe weather. Temperatures on Sunday will
be nearly steady in cold air advection behind the departing storm
system. Temperatures will remain in the 40s in southern Indiana, 50s
in central Kentucky.

Sunday night through Tuesday night will be dry and quiet as high
pressure travels along the Gulf coast and up into the Carolinas.
Lows Monday morning will be around the freezing mark, but we`ll be
back into the 70s by Tuesday afternoon as the high moves off to the
east and we get into some return flow.

Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will pull a cold front through
the Ohio Valley Wednesday or Wednesday night, accompanied by light
rain showers. An isolated rumble of thunder is possible, but severe
weather looks unlikely at this time.

Dry weather then returns on Friday with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Main threats: TSRA, gusty surface winds, MVFR ceilings

Scattered storms will continue to affect HNB/SDF early this morning,
with lesser chances at LEX/RGA/BWG. SDF stands the best chance of
seeing the heaviest storms in the first few hours of the TAF period.

After a short break, the next wave of showers and storms will push
northeastward across the entire region later this morning,
continuing into this afternoon and evening. This will lead to an
extended period of thunder possibilities for much of the daylight
hours at BWG/SDF, and at LEX this afternoon into this evening. This
convective activity will also bring in MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.

Showers will become lighter and more scattered overnight tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>026-032-061-070.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ027>031-
     033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ033>043-045>049-
     053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...13/SRW
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13