Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
854 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 853 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Today we reached highs ranging 74-78F and the region has currently
cooled to 67-71F. We had a nice cu field develop this afternoon, so
there are still some lingering cu out there currently. These cu will
continue to lift over the next few hours.

Overnight... We will have some high clouds over the region and calm-
light winds as we decouple overnight. Forecast soundings show
potential for shallow, thin fog around 9-12Z in the southern KY
areas. Due to these ingredients, there is a chance for patchy fog in
the morning.

Tomorrow... No change to the previous forecast package. To continue
us into this seasonable Memorial Day weekend, we are still expecting
FEW high clouds with highs reaching 82-85F.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Despite some clouds, it`s a very pleasant afternoon with
temperatures near 70. A clear area over central KY and south-central
IN has been steadily shrinking as BKN stratocu advects eastward.
Developing SW flow immediately upstream of the low-level ridge axis
is pushing those clouds across the I-65 corridor. SCT-BKN low clouds
will be the theme through sunset. Temperatures appear likely to top
out in the low to mid 70s later this afternoon.

Through the remainder of the weekend, mid and upper level ridging
will amplify over the eastern United States. Sfc high pressure
shifts off to the east tonight, with a very light southeasterly
wind. Low-lying areas will easily decouple with winds becoming calm.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will promote good radiational
cooling, and temperatures will dip into the mid/upper 50s for most.
Patchy fog looks like a good bet Sunday morning, primarily in the
river valleys.

Sunday morning looks spectacular, but the mercury will rise quickly
due to increased 1000-850 mb thicknesses and southerly low-level
flow. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the low to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon under plentiful sunshine. The southerly 850 mb jet
strengthens Sunday night downstream of a Plains low pressure system,
so look for a milder night with lows in the low to mid 60s.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

The upper level ridge continues to amplify over the Ohio Valley into
early next week. Low pressure develops from the Plains northeastward
across the Upper Midwest. The meridional flow will keep active
weather well off to our west through Tuesday. Expect dry and
increasingly hot weather.

Morning lows in the 60s will be common Monday and Tuesday, though
Tuesday will start off a bit warmer. Temperatures will likely max
out in the mid/upper 80s Monday, while upper 80s/lower 90s look
possible Tuesday.

Upper level flow flattens out mid to late week as a series of
shortwave troughs help to suppress the ridge over the southern U.S.
This allows a cold front to pass through the region sometime late
Wednesday into Thursday. The exact timing of the cold front remains
somewhat uncertain, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during this time frame.

Given the most likely timing, Wednesday will again be quite warm
with highs in the upper 80s/near 90. Thursday will be cooler with
more clouds/convection, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Friday and
Saturday look relatively cooler and drier as the cold front sinks
across the Southeast.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Summary: VFR throughout this TAF period

Confidence: High

Currently, there are some lingering cu in the region, but these
should begin to lift soon. After, high clouds will remain FEW-SCT
250kft throughout the rest of the TAF period. Barring that there may
be some thin, patchy fog over southern KY in the early morning
hours.

Around 3-4Z this evening, there will be a wind shift from the West-
NW to the South. Wind speeds will remain calm overnight and pick up
in the morning around 9-11kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...SRM
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...SRM


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