Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 301052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Upper ridging will continue to build from the west as surace high
pressure moves in from the southwest. The only clouds out will be
high flying cirrus from the southwest moving along upper level flow.
The pressure gradient from the low pressure system still near the
Great Lakes will cause some gusty winds, but they aren`t expected to
be as strong as yesterday`s. Winds around 10-15 mph from the west
will veer to the northwest during the day. These winds will be the
strongest in the Bluegrass region of Kentucky and southeastern
Indiana. In these areas gusts could reach 30 mph with around 20 mph
likely to the southwest of these locations. Highs today will be in
the 60s.

Tonight, winds will drop to around 5 mph with gusts to near 10 mph.
Clouds will start to thicken ahead of the next low pressure system
coming out of the west. Lows will drop to the low to mid 40s with
areas in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky seeing the upper

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Tuesday low pressure will move from west to east across the Deep
South as a neutrally tilted upper trough becomes slightly positively
tilted on its way from the middle Mississippi Valley to the central
Appalachians. Isentropic lift looks weak and dry mid-level air will
be coming in from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Instability
will be low and we`ll be well north of the surface low. So, will
leave thunder out of the forecast and will keep QPF amounts light to
moderate. The most significant rainfall amounts will be in southern
Kentucky, nearest the low and farthest from the mid-level dry air,
with amounts around one-half to three-quarters of an inch possible.
Folks in southern Indiana may see a tenth of an inch. Highs will
generally only be in the 40s.

Once the rain moves out Tuesday evening, the rest of the work week
looks dry with meridional ridging at the surface and aloft slowly
moving through.

A cold front is scheduled to pass through the region this weekend.
Dynamics aloft look unimpressive and the front will be weakening as
it pushes through. Right now just expecting showers and some
scattered thunder.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2020

The majority of the forecast period is expected to be uneventful
with only cirrus streaming overhead from the southwest. Winds
through the period will veer slowly from the west to the northeast.
SDF, LEX, and HNB could see gusts around 20 knots during the day.
These gusts will calm during the evening hours. Towards the end of
the period, a low pressure system to our south will continue its
trek east. This will start to lower ceilings and bring precipitation
chances to BWG, and SDF (during their extended forecast period).




Short Term...KDW
Long Term...13
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