Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 071901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Quiet weather will continue through the short term as surface high
pressure settles from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Tonight`s skies will be clearer than last night`s, and winds just
above the surface should be a little lighter than this morning. With
calm surface winds and temperatures likely approaching dew points,
will include some fog for the early morning hours.

Low temperatures tonight will be around 60. We`ll have plenty of
sunshine on Saturday that will bring temperatures into the middle
and upper 80s -- normal for August 8.


.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

The long term, beginning Saturday night, doesn`t have much in the
way of well defined systems and organization. The main upper flow
will stay along the northern CONUS during the period. Expecting
several small disturbances to pass over the Lower Ohio Valley this
week, but they aren`t expected to have much of an impact on the
weather. The biggest change comes early in the period as surface
high pressure gets pushed farther northeast out of the region. This
has been our protection from rain chances and higher dew points the
last several days.

So, what does this mean? Well, with the high pressure moving away
from the area, moist southerly flow will move in and push moisture
levels higher across the region. Very little shear and steering flow
will remain, so well organized systems aren`t expected. Expecting
diurnally driven isolated to scattered pop-up thunderstorms and
showers for most of the week starting Monday as highs stay near the
low 90s for the week.

Jumping back a little, on Sunday, the models are wanting to form an
MCS near St. Louis that will propagate southeast through
southwestern Indiana and central Kentucky. The GFS and SREF has this
staying mainly west of Interstate 65 while the NAM takes it straight
through central Kentucky. This will likely give some in the area
their first taste of rain this week.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure settling from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley
will give us light winds and dry weather for this TAF period. Some
fog can be expected around dawn in the still air.




Short Term...13
Long Term...KDW
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