Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301033
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
333 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...29/1136 PM.

Skies will be mostly clear for the next few days except for some
low clouds developing across the coast on Wednesday morning. Max
temps rise both Monday and Tuesday and will be near normal on
Tuesday. It will then be cooler again starting Wednesday. Dry
conditions will persist through at least Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...30/145 AM.

Dry NW flow will persist over the area through Wednesday. Aside
from some night through morning low clouds skies will be mostly
clear for the next three days.

Some low clouds are randomly forming this morning esp in the
Salinas, Cuyama and Santa Ynez Vlys. A weak eddy will likely bring
a few low clouds to the LGB area Tuesday morning while offshore
flow keeps the rest of the coasts and vlys clear. The same
offshore flow will bring some low clouds to the Cuyama and
Interior SLO Vly. Weaker offshore flow and a stronger eddy will
bring more low clouds to southern LA county on Wednesday. Another
round of night and morning clouds is likely for the Cuyama and
Interior SLO Vly as well.

There will be about a MB of offshore flow from the east this
morning. On Tuesday morning it will be neutral and then will turn
onshore on Wed. There will be continuous offshore flow from the
north and it will peak on Tuesday morning.

Hgts peak this afternoon at around 578 DM fall some Tuesday and
then decrease some more to 568 DM on Wednesday. Max temps will
jump significantly today (3 to 6 degrees csts/vlys and 5 to 10
degrees across the interior). The increased offshore northerly
flow will be more than enough to counter the lowering hgts on
Tuesday and temps will warm another 3 to 6 degrees making Tuesday
the warmest day of the next 7. Max temps on Tuesday will be at or
even a little above normal. On Wednesday lower hgts and less
offshore flow will knock 2 to 5 degrees off of Tuesday readings.

The strong northwest flow pattern and sfc offshore flow will
generate gusty north to northwest winds across southern SBA
County, the I-5 corridor and portions of the Antelope Vly. Wind
advisories are likely for the SBA south coast both tonight and
Tuesday night. The I-5 corridor and NW corner of the Antelope Vly
will very likely see advisory level gusts Tuesday evening and
overnight.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...30/333 AM.

Both the EC and GFS agree that weather excitement levels will be
quite low on Thu and Fri as dry NW flow with hgts near 567 DM
will be over the area. Temps will are likely to rise to a degree
each day. Offshore flow will continue but the wind speeds will be
much reduced from Tuesday Night`s Wednesday`s values.

On Saturday the flow flattens out as a cold upper low plunges
southward southward just off the coast it then pivots eastward and
across Nrn CA. There will be a slight bump up in clouds and max
temps will lower some but not too much as hgts fall.

Both mdls indicate broad troffing setting up over the state on
Sunday. The mdls are beginning to go out of phase. The GFS is
cooler than the slower EC. The clouds will be on the increase and
max temps will drop esp if the cooler GFS comes to pass.

Monday looks interesting - The EC and most of its ensemble members
bring a cold upper low and rain to the area. The GFS disagrees
and has dry NW flow. It will be interesting to see how the two
mdls and all of their myriad of ensemble members handle this
forecast tomorrow when Monday becomes part of the official
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0621Z.

At 0545Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Pretty good confidence in TAFs a little less north of Pt
Conception. There is a 20 percent chc of MVFR cigs at any non
desert site south of Pt Conception 10Z-16Z. North of Pt Conception
there is a 30 percent chc that cigs will not form and if they do
timing may be off by +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Pretty good confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc
BKN015 10Z-16Z. Good confidence that there will not be any east
wind component.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chc BKN015
10Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/916 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) northwest winds southwest and west of the Channel
Islands will expand northward into the northern waters Monday.
SCA conditions are likely across the waters northwest through
southwest of the Channel Islands Monday afternoon through
Thursday. There is a 50 percent chance of gales Tuesday afternoon
through late Wednesday night.

Across the southern California bight, SCA conditions are expected
through late tonight. There is a 30 perceny chance of SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday
across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel, then SCA
conds are likely across the SBA Channel Wednesday and Thursday.

There will be an extended period of hazardous short period seas
under 9 seconds for much of the week across most of the waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      PM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
      Wednesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles


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