161
FXUS66 KLOX 220603
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1103 PM PDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/1251 PM.

Unsettled weather will continue through this evening before the
departing low pressure system allows some warming through Friday.
Gusty northwest to north winds are possible in the storms wake,
especially for Wednesday afternoon to evening. A weak storm with
light rain is possible sometime this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/917 PM.

***UPDATE***

Active weather has died down tonight, with only a few areas of
lingering showers over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.
Overall, the low pressure system brought about 0.50 to 1 inch
over much of the northwestern area (excluding interior San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties) with higher totals of 1.25 to
1.5 inches for higher terrain. Lower totals from 0.01 to 0.25
inches were common further south, with many areas in Los Angeles
County remaining dry. Tonight should be mostly dry, with potential
for low clouds and patchy fog over eastern San Luis Obispo
County. Otherwise, expecting temperatures to gradually warm over
the next few days with mostly clear skies. There is a small chance
for some showers for far northwestern San Luis Obispo County
Wednesday and the current forecast looks on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

The front that brought much of the rain to areas up north as
weakened significantly with scattered light showers focused ahead
of it in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Behind the front
isolated scattered showers will continue especially for northern
Santa Barbara County to San Louis Obispo County through this
evening. There continues to be a 10-20 percent chance of
thunderstorms focused across San Luis Obispo County through this
afternoon. Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and
cloud- to- ground lightning are the most likely hazards with any
thunderstorms. The threat for moderate rain rates as largely
ended, although very isolated hourly rates around a quarter to
half of an inch per hour is possible through this evening with
any thunderstorms.

Gusty southwest winds should dissipate this evening, allowing
ongoing wind advisories to end. Additional wind advisories may be
needed Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning focused across
Southern Santa Barbara County, much of Ventura County, and western
Los Angeles County. Winds will dissipate by Friday but remain
breezy in some areas especially in the afternoon to early evening
hours.

The departing low pressure system will allow gradual warming of
4-8 degrees through Friday, approaching seasonal temperatures.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...21/1252 PM.

Another storm system is likely to impact the area that will lead
to a cooling trend over the weekend, dropping temperature back
into the 60s. There is a 30-50 percent chance of mainly light rain
focused across the foothills to interior sometime this weekend
thanks to moist upslope flow over the mountains and limited
instability. The storm energy is coming from the southwest to west
and is weak so significant wind concerns are unlikely, but it
does lend itself to below normal forecast confidence. Rain chances
and unsettled weather may continue through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0600Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.

Good confidence in TAFs with only a 15 percent chc of MVFR conds
at coastal sites from 11Z-17Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chance of
5SM BR BKN025 conds 11Z-17Z . Good confidence in no significant
east wind component through the period.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/803 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Wednesday morning, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. From
Wednesday afternoon through Friday night, high confidence in
SCA level northwest winds. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance
of GALE force winds Wednesday night with short period choppy seas,
south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday morning, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday
through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday morning, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, high confidence in
SCA level winds across all the southern Inner Waters. For Thursday
through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds across
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel in the late
afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM
      PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox