064
FXUS64 KLUB 171708
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1208 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

06Z upper air analysis depicts a dampened, positively-tilted trough
pivoting over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the southern
Great Plains, with a well-defined vorticity lobe rotating about its
base over northern Sonora. Another weakening, mid-level circulation
associated with the now-remnant convection from last evening
continues to rotate overhead, where dense anvil overcast will
persist through at least the mid-morning hours as moist ascent
remains intact aloft. At the surface, the CWA is within the eastern
periphery of a weak, mesoscale high where winds remain light and
variable area-wide. The southern edge of a diffuse, quasi-stationary
front also extended into the Rolling Plains, and the baroclinity
along this front is very weak with negligible differences in
temperatures. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout
the remainder of the period as the backside of the slow-moving
trough progresses into West Texas, and the corresponding NVA
associated with the northerly flow aloft will result in a clearing
sky less the redevelopment of a boundary-layer cu field in the
Rolling Plains this afternoon. The quasi-stationary front should
dissipate entirely later this morning, and the lack of surface- and
low-level convergence will be unable to foster deepening of the PBL
cu by peak heating, with mid-level warming also shunting vertical
development. Light winds will begin to back to the south by this
evening as a diffuse surface trough evolves across eastern New
Mexico, with temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide
followed by a clear and cool night.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The shift to a period of hot and dry weather begins in earnest on
Saturday upper level ridging moves overhead. A fairly broad upper
trough over much of the western CONUS will attempt to break the
ridge down some but proggs suggest to little affect. Southwesterly
mid to upper level is progged over the area with the ridge axis
shifting to the east of the forecast area, but geopotential heights
look to remain steady while thicknesses increase some due to lee
surface trough development. Add in breezy south to southwest winds
and 850 mb hot, dry air moving overhead and the recipe is set for
temperatures approaching upper 90s to near 100 Sunday and Monday.
Some reversion toward, but not quite to normal will begin on Tuesday
as some of the energy in the western CONUS trough ejects across the
central Plains. Decreasing heights and thicknesses on Tuesday will
begin that shift with further cooling on Wednesday and Thursday in a
post-frontal environment behind a cold front that will move through
the forecast area Tuesday night. Warm mid level temperatures will
keep a lid on precipitation chances through the period with the
possible exception of late Thursday across eastern zones with some
hint at the dryline moving across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will swing
around more to the south tonight but speeds will be light.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01