Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 080805 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 405 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area early today. Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight. Another cold front will cross the area early on Monday. High pressure will then build toward the region through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shortwave-trough with axis from LK Huron into OH per water vapor imagery will pivot through the area this morning with axis shifting east of the Chesapeake Bay by 18Z. This feature will generate another round of showers this morning with activity quickly diminishing after 18Z. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over far northeast MD where enough instability may develop before trof axis swings through. Otherwise, wind and cool temperatures will be the main story for today. Mainly dry tonight as shortwave-ridge builds in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Rain/showers associated with next low pressure system will start arriving around daybreak on Mother`s Day. Models show heaviest rainfall north of the Mason Dixon line with generally light amounts over our area. Trends during the past 24 hrs have been to push the associated cold front quicker across our area early on Monday with all precip pretty much out of our area by 12Z Monday. Becoming windy Sunday night into Monday with gusts to 30 mph.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure slides into the region Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of the aforementioned cold front passage. As a result, mostly sunny and dry weather will prevail with below average temperatures. Highs Tuesday only reach the low to mid 60s, with Wednesday only a couple degrees warmer. Towards the end of the week, there is a little less certainty. The Canadian and Euro operational runs both keep high pressure anchored over the region, thus leading to continue dry weather. Meanwhile, the GFS develops a surface low that rides up the east coast, bringing some rain to the region. At this point that is the outlier, so leaning towards the drier side. However, can`t completely rule out rain Thursday into Friday. So, will maintain 30-40% chance POPs for that time frame for now. Though, do think that can be lowered if this trend continues today.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Scattered showers today with bkn cigs 030-050. Main impact to the terminals will be NW winds gusting up to 30 kt. More showers again on Mother`s Day but flight restrictions appear unlikely. Windy Sunday night and Monday with NW gusting up to 25 kt. High pressure overhead on Tuesday and Wednesday will lead to mostly sunny and dry conditions. VFR conditions expected during this time as a result. May see some 15-20 knot winds Tuesday afternoon out of the NW, then again on Wednesday afternoon, but perhaps slightly less in magnitude. Nothing too intense, but certainly noteworthy.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCAs are in effect today through tonight as NW winds strengthen. There is an outside shot of seeing an isolated 34-kt gust today, but brief and sporadic nature does not warrant a Gale Warning. Think this would be best handle with SMWs, however, strongest winds are likely in the post-frontal environment late in the afternoon once showers end. Best chance of a thunderstorm today is north of Pooles Island. Winds diminish on Mother`s Day before they strengthen again Sunday night and Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday behind the cold frontal passage in breezy NW flow. Winds should taper off into Wednesday, but could still see gusts close to SCA in the northern marine zones.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding will be possible Monday morning as water levels rise on srly winds ahead of frontal passage.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>533-536-539>542. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-535-538. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...CJL AVIATION...LFR/CJL MARINE...LFR/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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