Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 262311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Winds will remain
below 12kts with veering winds out of the south and southwest this
evening. Winds will gradually shift out of the west tomorrow
afternoon. Clear skies next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Another hard freeze is expected Thur morning per decent radiational
cooling conditions. Temps will start to moderate Thur PM despite the
low-level thermal ridge maintaining a wwd position underneath the
NW mid-level flow aloft. More of the same Fri PM, but with
seasonal high temps. An anomalous temp pattern does develop over
the weekend when the mid-level flow becomes wly and the low-level
thermal ridge expands e and n, approx +5 Sat and +10 Sun temp
departures. Southerly surface winds will increase Sat across the
ern half of the PB. Sunday winds will shift wly with a broad
surface low to the n and deep mixing will favor breezy to windy
conditions across the plains, probable warning conditions in the
GDP Mtns. Mon mid-level flow will back to the sw ahead a trof and
we expect clouds will increase and temps will likely decrease
some. The chance for precip will increase late Mon night, but is
expected to move e by 18Z/Tue, however there is some indication of
wrap around SHRA after 18Z/Tue.

FIRE WEATHER...
We are still looking at a strong drying trend through Sunday. By
Sat-Sun fine fuels will probably be into at least high fire
danger. We are uncertain just how much drying will appear in the
more representative ERC-G fuel spectrum, but it will bounce from
the recent high moisture content. As it is now RFTIs on Sunday
will probably reach a 4-5, possibly a 6 in a few locations. RFTI
of 5-6 would take a 50th-70th percentile ERC-G to get solid Red
Flag conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  64  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  67  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  29  65  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  55  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  60  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  67  31  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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