Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Satellite shows that MVFR CIGS have made it to near Big Lake
while cold front looks to be near LBB. Winds were mostly 5kts or
less with a gradually developing n wind thru mid morning as
frontal push continues to weaken. Brief light fog is possible as the
dewpoint depressions are 0-2 across parts of the PB and have
included a TEMPO 5SM BR til 14Z at MAF only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Water vapor shows mid/upper low centered INVOF wrn NE with assocd
cold front moving thru the TX Panhandle. Although current post-
frontal pressure rises are sufficient to push front swd they will be
waning and are not expected to re-strengthen, we expect the front to
only limp into the PB/SE NM after 12Z. S of the front, across the
Trans Pecos from the e side of the Davis Mtns into the Lower Trans
Pecos, low-level mstr will hold within a steep mid-level LR
environment resulting in the possibility of a few SHRA/TSRA later
this afternoon. SB CAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 25-
30kts does support a strong storm. Mostly there will be little
sensible change to the temps today, but richer mstr and proximity of
higher surface pressure will attempt to keep temps cooler across the
far e and se PB. Extensive low clouds are favored Thu AM and may
hold until late in afternoon serving to delay heating some, however
there should still be enough insolation late in the day for L80s-
M80s. Thur PM convective concerns will again be focused across the
Trans Pecos where steep LRs, topography, low-level convergence, and
SB CAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG come together to warrant slight
chance to chance PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Shortwave over Mexico will continue to press NE with another weak
pulse moving east across the Caprock and adjacent Western plains.
Convection will be pretty scattered at best considering the proposed
magnitude of lift and environment in place, so have maintained an
isolated coverage for both the Big Bend area, as well as the eastern
Permian Basin as a few cells may develop as the northern energy
scoots across. After that, a very zonal pattern takes shape through
the weekend into next week. Above normal thicknesses with more
downsloping wind components will keep temperatures well-above normal
everywhere through at least Tuesday. Record highs at KMAF sit around
90-91 each day in this period of record, and there will be a few
days where the daily records may be challenged given the anomalous
setup in the pattern. Saturday is the first day in question with
clear skies and downsloping winds to coincide with a thermal ridge
axis in the western portions of the forecast area. Right now,
current forecast is a few degrees below the record, but it`s
something we`ll be monitoring. Pattern shifts next week as a large
western trough traverses eastward leading to a windier setup from
both the lead jet streak with the trough, as well as post frontal
winds behind a Pacific front being shown on guidance. Lots of time
to delve into details as the pattern evolves, so will just make
mention of the possibility with more updates in successive forecast
shifts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  58  83  58 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 84  51  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   86  64  85  62 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            87  59  88  59 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           77  56  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    83  50  83  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     86  58  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   87  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     88  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$


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