183
FXUS64 KMAF 150759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Ileana roughly over southwest
Chihuahua this morning, slowly moving east-northeast.  As such,
mid/high cloud from this feature has cleared out of Southeast New
Mexico, and is clearing West Texas from west to east.

This cloud cover suppressed highs yesterday, and although thicknesses
will decrease a little today, abundant insolation will allow highs ~
2-4 F warmer than yesterday.  CAMs suggest isolated convection from
the remnants of Ileana may cross the river in the Big Bend Area this
afternoon...but not by far.

Tonight, despite a LLJ, mostly clear skies will yield lows similar
to this morning`s, if not a degree cooler due to less cloud cover.

Monday, an upper trough digging through the southwest CONUS nudges
the ridge east, decreasing thicknesses slightly.  This will combine
w/increasing high cloud from the approaching trough to shave a
couple of degrees off this afternoon`s highs.  Isolated convection
from Ileana is still possible along the river during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Little change to the long term forecast with this update. Medium to
long term ensemble guidance keeps an upper level ridge parked over
the southern Great Plains through the middle of the coming week.
This will keep temperatures unseasonably warm in the 90s during the
day and in the 60s to 70s at night (average high/low at KMAF is
88/65F for mid September). The big question will be the evolution of
an upper level low moving over the Western US and subsequently into
the Plains later this week. In general, a weakness or shift eastward
in the aforementioned ridge may lead to near average temperatures
and at least low (10-30%) rain chances over portions of the area.
However, the exact track of the low may augment where and how much
rain may or may not fall across the region. Stay tuned!

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
sounding develop a widespread, low-based cu field late morning
everywhere but KCNM, where convective temps will not be met. No
convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  66  92  69 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   93  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  67  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  64  84  65 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    92  65  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    87  59  87  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     94  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   94  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     96  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44