Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 021924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
224 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Wednesday)...
A broad and elongated upper level ridge presides over the Yucatan
Peninsula, with modest zonal flow encompasses South Florida. At
the surface, a stationary front splits through south-central
Florida, with weak south/southeast flow ahead of this boundary. A
surface pressure gradient appears to develop over the interior,
owing to modest differential surface heating. This may act to
increase low- level moisture convergence and possibly allow for
shower/isolated thunderstorm develop over the interior this
afternoon, specifically near Lake Okeechobee. Based on the 12Z MFL
sounding from this morning, inversions at 800/600 hPa and paltry
lapse rates may make it difficult for this environment to freely
convect, and therefore any shower/storm development is likely to
be relatively benign and short-lived in nature. Patchy to locally
dense fog development is possible for portions of southwest
Florida, with clearing likely within 1-2 hours of sunrise.

By tomorrow, a stout 500 hPa vorticity maxima induces surface
cyclogenesis off the Carolina coastline. The aforementioned
stationary boundary lifts northward and becomes more defined as a
warm front, while a cold front extends from the cyclone center down
through northern portions of South Florida. The orientation of this
front will allow for modest/strong west/northwest flow through
Wednesday as it transverses the CWA. A region of modest forcing
appears to materialize ahead of this boundary near Lake Okeechobee,
including Palm Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties. These areas will
experience the greatest chances for shower/thunderstorm development
for tomorrow afternoon, though impacts appear to be limited to
locally heavy rainfall and higher wind gusts.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Early Next Week)...
Wednesday night into Thursday morning the aforementioned front
sweeps through South Florida, bringing uneventful weather aside
from a sprinkle or two during the overnight hours. A very brief
"cool" down (or really normal temps for this time of year) is
expected Thursday and Friday with a drier airmass in place
(forecast dewpoints in the low 50s surrounding Lake Okeechobee and
mid-upper 50s elsewhere).

By Saturday morning, a mid-level shortwave and surface inflection
moves across the north/central GOMEX before pushing though from
west to east across South FL. This will spark an increase in
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Still
some uncertainty involved with the overall intensity of the system
(timing is more aligned between the globals -- main impact being
Saturday). The GFS is much more potent with a series of vigorous
vort maxima passing through whereas the ECMWF is more tame, so
depending on which solution prevails strong storms cannot entirely
be ruled out. Highest PoPs still focus around Palm Beach County,
with numbers in the 70 to 80 percent range, and 50 to 70 percent
range for the rest of South FL.

By Sunday, high pressure returns,bringing back drier weather
through the beginning of next week. Although the weather will be
dry, marine/beach hazards are expected thanks to blustery onshore
flow in the wake of the departing system and increasing pressure
gradient. Something to keep in mind, especially with Spring Break
and our ever so popular beaches. Mild and near normal temps
expected to close out the extended period.


VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF cycle.
Fog/low stratus clouds may develop again tonight over southwest
Florida (near/over APF) and near Lake Okeechobee, which may
reduce CIGs/VIS resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions. Winds generally
SE around 06-10kt becoming SW by tomorrow morning, and WNW around
10-15 kt by tomorrow afternoon/evening as the tail end of a cold
front approaches the region.


While a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out, fairly
benign conditions are expected through today. Tomorrow, a
transient cold front is forecast to progress through the region.
Winds out of the west/northwest around 15kt should accompany this
feature, which may result in unfavorable marine conditions through
Thursday morning. By late this weekend, hazardous conditions are
expected across all local South FL waters as a more unsettled
weather pattern evolves with the passage of a new cold front.


Slight chance of rip currents for all South FL beaches through
most the work week. By Friday may see an elevated risk along the
Palm Beaches, then all Atlantic beaches this weekend due
increasing NE winds.


Warm start to March thus far with high temperatures flirting with
records. Wednesday looks to be the best day to break a record high
along the east coast with temps close to 10 degrees above average
for this time of year. Stats below:

    City              High   Record/Year   Average
    NAPLES             80    88 IN 1997      79
    WEST PALM BEACH    86    89 IN 1919      78
    FORT LAUDERDALE    88    89 IN 2007      79
    MIAMI              87    90 IN 2007      79


Miami            70  87  63  79 /   0  10  10   0
West Kendall     68  88  61  81 /   0   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        68  86  60  79 /   0  10  10   0
Homestead        68  86  60  79 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  88  62  79 /   0  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  86  62  78 /   0  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   69  88  60  79 /   0  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  68  86  60  76 /  10  20  10  10
Boca Raton       68  87  61  78 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           68  80  58  76 /  10  10  10   0




Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...SRB
Wednesday Night through Tuesday/Marine/Beaches/Climate...Fell

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