902
FXUS62 KMFL 160610
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
210 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

The setup for today into Monday features a potent upper level trough
which will swing across the SE US today, and move off the coast
on Monday. At the surface, a storm system continues to advance
towards the Great Lakes region today and will move into eastern
Canada on Monday. A frontal boundary associated with this system
will drag across the state of Florida, crossing South FL late
tonight into early Monday morning, with high pressure building
into the area behind the cold front.

Ahead of the cold front, very warm southerly air will be in place
across South FL today. It will remain breezy with the pressure
gradient fairly tight across the area. Expect gusts of 20 to 25
mph through the afternoon. High temps will range from the mid to
upper 80s across the east coast metro, to upper 80s and low 90s
over the interior.

As is often the case with systems moving northeast into the Great
Lakes region, the trailing cold front will lose much of its punch
by the time it reaches South FL, and the greatest dynamics will
remain well to our north. In addition, we will lose some
instability with the loss of daytime heating as well. Expect a
line of broken showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into
early Monday morning. While some gusty showers are possible, the
severe threat will be fairly limited across our area. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s around the
lake, to mid and upper 60s elsewhere.

High pressure over the northern Gulf builds in for Monday. Skies
will be quick to clear during the morning hours, and expect mostly
clear skies by the afternoon into the evening. High temperatures
will be generally 75-80 across South FL, and with the lower
humidity filtering into the area, it will be a very pleasant day
across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be in place through
mid week, which will lead to fairly quiet weather across South
FL. Afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be near normal
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but the overnight lows will be
chilly for mid to late March with lows in the mid 40s around the
lake to mid 50s across the metro Tuesday morning, and remaining
chilly Wednesday morning with upper 40s around the lake, to near
60 across the metro.

The next front will cross South FL late in the week. While this will
be mainly a dry front, it will reinforce the cooler and drier air
for the start of next weekend with high temperatures remaining
near normal and overnight lows slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Breezy south-south easterly winds overnight will continue through
daybreak before becoming gusty (25-30kt gusts) during the late
morning hours. Mostly VFR cigs/vis at all terminals during the
day today with the potential of a few bouts of MVFR cigs due to
cumulus activity. SHRA/TSRA associated with approaching FROPA may
arrive across the area 06z-12z on Monday, added VCTS in for
KMIA/KFLL to reflect potential although uncertainty remains for
coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Fresh to strong southerly winds today ahead of an approaching cold front
will lead to hazardous winds and seas for all local waters. The cold
front crosses the waters late tonight into early Monday which
will result in winds becoming northerly, but the hazardous marine
conditions will linger into at least early Tuesday for the Gulf
waters, and into mid week for the Atlantic waters. An additional
period of hazardous winds and seas are possible late next week
with the passage of another cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches through
this evening, and will remain elevated going into Monday due to a
lingering swell. The threat of rip currents for the Gulf beaches
will increase on Monday as a passing frontal boundary will result
in onshore flow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  69  79  55 /  10  50  20   0
West Kendall     89  66  80  50 /  10  40  20   0
Opa-Locka        89  67  80  53 /  10  50  20   0
Homestead        85  67  79  52 /  10  40  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  85  67  77  55 /  10  50  30   0
N Ft Lauderdale  86  67  77  54 /  10  50  20   0
Pembroke Pines   90  68  81  55 /  10  50  20   0
West Palm Beach  86  65  76  53 /  20  50  20   0
Boca Raton       86  67  78  53 /  10  50  20   0
Naples           84  64  72  50 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Hadi