Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 082008
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
408 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Sunday...

The upper level pattern should deamplify through the period as
troughing aloft departs from the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow
for quasi-zonal flow to evolve with gradually building mid-level
heights across the region. The surface front which cleared our area
recently should remain stalled across the Florida Straits and
western Cuba before gradually dissipating. While drier air will
filter into northern portions of our area, considerable low-level
moisture will remain across far southern/eastern portions of the
Florida Peninsula. As such, given the abundant low-level moisture
and prevailing easterly flow, showers should develop both today
and Sunday, with only small chances for a storm. The initial late
night/early morning focus should remain over the southern Atlantic
waters before the prevailing easterly wind component/Atlantic
breeze forces the best chances towards interior areas during the
afternoons. The stronger easterly breeze should favor highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s for most areas, although the east coast
beaches should remain in the lower 80s. Lows tonight should dip
into the mid 60s over the northern Everglades and Lake region,
with lower to mid 70s along the east coast.

.LONG TERM...
Sunday evening through Friday night...

Overall, 500mb flow looks fairly zonal over the area through
Wednesday. There may be some weak shortwaves that move through,
but no substantial ridging or troughing through the period. Also,
at the surface, a Bermuda high builds once again. This may push
the tail end of a front back to the north, possibly slightly
enhancing the potential for convection on Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, the surface ridge is not as strong as it has been,
which may allow for more of a wet season type of pattern to
emerge this week. Definitely looks to be a transition type of
pattern, with the main triggers this week being diurnal heating
and the sea/lake breezes. So, each day may see some convective
activity across the area, with the sea breezes being the
initiating factors, then the cells being driven by outflow
boundaries. This makes it very difficult to pinpoint a specific
area, therefore have chance of convection across most of the area
in the forecast.

By late Wednesday, a 500mb trough approaches the area. This
should induce the development of weak low pressure at the surface
for the overnight hours. Also, an area of moisture is progged to
advect into the region. All this looks to add up for enhanced
chances of convective activity for Wednesday night across the
entire peninsula.

By Thursday, the GFS and the ECMWF both show cyclogenesis finally
occurs just to our northeast, and a cold front forms near the
area, which keeps the chances for convection going through the day
and into Thursday evening. While strong thunderstorms are always
a concern this time of year, the prolonged chances of rain may
result in a concern for some flooding, especially in the metro
areas of South Florida, at least with the GFS solution. The ECMWF
is still somewhat drier, but is somewhat wetter than yesterday run.
It is still very early, and the forecast could change drastically,
it is definitely something to watch for.


&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Showers/storms developing over the Southern Everglades. Best odds
for rain should remain away from the terminals today with the
possible exception of KTMB. Breezy easterly flow around 12-15 kt
should continue with occasional gusts to around 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

Bouts of cautionary conditions are possible for the Atlantic and
Gulf waters this weekend as breezy easterly winds around 15 to 20
kt. Otherwise scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
are possible each day.

&&

.BEACHES...

There is a high rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches today.
An enhanced rip current risk should continue for the Atlantic
beaches into early next week with an onshore wind regime.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  86  77  89 /  10  30  20  30
West Kendall     73  88  75  90 /  20  30  20  20
Opa-Locka        72  87  75  89 /  10  30  20  30
Homestead        74  86  75  89 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  86  77  88 /  10  30  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  74  84  76  87 /  10  30  20  30
Pembroke Pines   73  86  75  89 /  10  30  20  30
West Palm Beach  72  85  74  88 /  10  20  20  40
Boca Raton       74  86  75  88 /  10  30  20  30
Naples           69  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...SPM
Sunday Night through Saturday...13

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