Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 170702
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
302 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The axis of weak mid-lvl troughing will move over South Florida
today, while the surface trough axis moves over the Atlantic waters,
and High Pressure builds north of the area. Forcing for ascent today
will be largely limited to mesoscale ascent along the sea breezes,
with convective coverage likely further limited by increasingly
drier mid-lvl air. Although the synoptic gradient will still favor a
westerly component to the flow, it looks weak enough that the
Atlantic breeze should make it far enough inland to largely result
in an eastern-interior focus for the isolated-scattered convection
today. Cant rule out some gusty winds given steep low-lvl lapse
rates and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg but the dry mid-lvls
should keep convection below severe levels with SBCAPE progged at
only 1000-1500 J/kg. Convection should be generally diurnal in
nature with any overland storms coming to an end shortly after
sunset.

Mid-lvl heights will rise as the trough moves offshore on Wednesday
and weak surface high pressure will drift south and east towards the
Fl Peninsula.  The weak ridging should be sufficient to keep
convection largely isolated on Wednesday, and the general lack of a
synoptic gradient enabling both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes to
push inland, and consequently suspect that any convection that does
develop should be focused over the interior. Given the light
synoptic winds and warming temperatures aloft, high temperatures on
Wednesday will run a few degrees above normal, ranging from the
upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s
elsewhere).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

High pressure will shift offshore on Thursday resulting in a warm
and increasingly moist southerly flow prevailing over the area.
Although the increasing moisture and instability may result in a
modest uptick in sea-breeze forced convection on Thursday,
coverage on the whole will still remain limited with mid-lvl
ridging remaining in control, with temperatures generally similar
to Wednesday. As mentioned in previous discussions the overall
pattern turns more unsettled Friday into the upcoming weekend as
mid-lvl ridging amplifies over the western Atlantic. Although
synoptic ascent will remain meager (largely tied to a few low-
amplitude disturbances lifting northeastward around the ridge)
moisture will continue to increase as the positioning of the high
to our west will enable persistent and deep southerly flow to
prevail over south Florida. This should favor above normal rain
chances through the period with activity largely diurnal in
nature. High temperatures look to remain near to slightly above
normal, however overnight lows should run several degrees above
normal as the increasing humid airmass establishes itself, with
some locations near the east coast struggling to make it out of
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds for the rest of the overnight hours will
increase out of the southeast by the middle of Tuesday morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the
east coast terminals during Tuesday afternoon. At KAPF, winds will
increase out of the west northwest on Tuesday afternoon as a Gulf
breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...

A largely benign and favorable marine forecast for the South Florida
waters through the period as winds should remain overall light to
moderate with favorable seas. Limited storm coverage is expected
over the waters today through the mid-week period before the
chance of storms increases late this week into this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...

In the wake of the recent full moon, tides will continue to run
above normal through the middle of this week, allowing coastal
flooding to persist along primarily the Atlantic coast. Given the
light winds and lack of appreciable waves, the rip current risk will
remain low through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  75  90  76 /  30  20  20  10
West Kendall     88  71  91  72 /  30  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        89  73  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
Homestead        87  72  89  73 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  85  75  89  76 /  30  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  87  74  89  76 /  20  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   89  73  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  87  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
Boca Raton       88  73  89  75 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           89  73  91  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Today through Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Carr
Wednesday Night through Monday...Carr

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