000
FXUS62 KMFL 281953
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Northerly flow associated with surface high pressure over the Deep
South continues to bring in refreshing cooler air to South FL. An
upper level trough moving across the eastern US today will result in
mid and high clouds moving across the area through tonight, but then
drier mid/upper levels on Wednesday will result in a mostly sunny
day tomorrow. Tonight will be a bit tricky with the temp forecast
due to the mid/upper clouds, but still went on the lower end of
guidance especially over interior SW FL where there is a higher
confidence of clearing in the pre-dawn hours. Overnight lows will
range from the low to mid 40s over interior SW FL, to around 60 over
SE FL. The cooler air will remain in place for at least one more day
on Wednesday, with below normal afternoon high temps in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

High pressure centered off to the north will continue to shift
into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. While
mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday, this will
cause the wind to gradually shift and become east southeasterly
during this time frame. The wind shift will also usher in a
warming trend as high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to
around 80 on Thursday. Friday`s high temperatures will rise into
the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid 80s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, a mid level ridge will push
northward towards the region from the Carribean. This will allow
for the east to southeasterly wind flow to continue along with
the warming trend with temperatures. At the same time, a frontal
boundary will slowly push through the Southeastern portion of the
country and into Northern and Central Florida on Saturday and
Sunday. While South Florida will remain in the warm sector
throughout the weekend, moisture advection will be taking place
during this time frame. While many areas will remain dry through
the weekend, there will be a slight chance of showers along the
breeze mainly over eastern areas. High temperatures on Saturday
and Sunday will generally range from the mid 80s along the east
coast to the upper 80s over interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

The latest guidance remains in disagreement with handling the
timing and intensity of the front off to the north early next
week. While models generally agree in pushing the front through
South Florida, the timing differences are still rather significant
as some of the models push it through on Monday, and others push
it through a day or two later. Since this is towards the end of
the forecast period combined with the disagreement in guidance,
uncertainty remains rather high for this time frame. The latest
forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps a slight chance of
showers in the forecast for early next week with warm temperatures
continuing. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR through the 18Z TAF periods. N/NW winds around 10 kts except
for APF for winds are N/NE. Mid and high clouds will hang around
until early Wednesday morning. Winds by Wednesday afternoon switch
to N/NE across the east coast metro.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Moderate to fresh northerly breeze continues across the local waters
with high pressure in control. Brief SCA conditions this evening for
the Atlantic waters with winds around 20 kts. Atlantic seas 4-6 ft
today subsiding to 3-4 ft on Wednesday. Gulf seas 2-4 ft today
subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through Wednesday
for the Atlantic beaches, with a high risk likely by the end of the
week as the wind flow becomes more easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  76  64  79 /  10  10   0   0
West Kendall     57  77  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        60  76  63  80 /  10  10   0   0
Homestead        59  76  64  79 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  59  76  64  79 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  58  76  64  79 /  10  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   59  76  62  80 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  54  75  61  78 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       56  76  63  79 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           52  74  55  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF