Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221534 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1034 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Eastern United
States today into tonight allowing for the pressure gradient to
tighten over South Florida. This will lead to breezy to windy
easterly winds over the region today into tonight. The wind gusts
could even get to near wind advisory conditions this afternoon
along the east coastal areas of South Florida.

The winds have also increase over the local waters this morning to
20 to 25 knots, except over the near-shore Gulf waters where they
are in the 15 to 20 knots which is higher that currently forecast.
Therefore, the wind speeds have been increase a little bit for
this afternoon into tonight over the local waters leading to
adding SCA conditions for the offshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee
waters for rest of today into tonight. The wind gusts could even
get to near gale force conditions tonight in the Atlantic waters.
At this time will not go to a Gale Warning for the Atlantic
waters, but will continue to monitor the wind speeds through the
afternoon and decide if we need a Gale Warning for tonight in the
afternoon package for the Atlantic waters.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019/

The main concern is high pressure building to the north is
forecast to increase the pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in an increase in the wind out of the east today to
around 15 kts. There is the possibility of some periodic gusts to
around 25 kts. The wind is forecast to persist through the
overnight hours tonight, possibly strengthening slightly along
the Atlantic coast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through
the period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019/

Surface high pressure centered south of the Great Lakes will
continue to move eastward through mid-week as the next low pressure
system emerges over the central United States by late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. The flow will eventually shift from a northerly component
to an easterly one over the next 24 hours. With this flow change,
the airmass will moderate with a warming trend expected over the
next few days. There could also be enough moisture, particularly
over the Atlantic waters, to support some shower activity.

The next cold front will arrive Thursday with the potential for
showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the front is still a source of
uncertainty as the ECMWF with a bit slower than the GFS with frontal
passage. There is some consensus between guidance packages with the
front stalling to the south and east of South Florida for the
weekend. Surface high pressure will build in with some cooler air
behind the front. 40s and 50s for overnight lows are expected but
the forecast evolution will have to be monitored in case colder
temperatures emerge into the picture.

Uncertainty with the pattern begins to increase as guidance is
producing some different possibilities late in the forecast period.
A mid-level trough will swing across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
which will bring some unsettled weather to the region. Some guidance
members show the development of a stronger surface feature over
Florida while some other members keep the feature more aloft in
character. The forecast trend will need to be monitored as
climatologically, we are in the midst of the winter severe weather
season which can quickly come to life with disturbances moving along
a southern branch of the jetstream.

Developing easterly flow will pick up allowing Advisory conditions
to develop over the Atlantic waters today. Advisory conditions
over the Atlantic waters will likely persist into Thursday. Small
Craft Advisory will be extended in time accordingly.

Building easterly flow will allow for a high risk of rip currents
along the Atlantic beaches to persist through a good portion of
the week. The Rip Current Statement has been extended through at
least Wednesday evening and will likely need to be extended
through Thursday if the current forecast holds.

Dispersion index values will be in the good to excellent range
over the next several days. Currently, relative humidity values
appear to remain well above critical thresholds through the

West Palm Beach  64  78  68  80 /  20  20  30  70
Fort Lauderdale  67  78  71  80 /  20  20  30  70
Miami            67  78  71  80 /  20  20  30  60
Naples           62  79  66  76 /  10  10  30  70


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ676.


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