Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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108 FXUS62 KMHX 241932 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 332 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Inland troughing and high pressure offshore will prevail through the end of the week. A cold front will move through Saturday, with high pressure building in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore, inland troughing and nearly stationary boundary extending through the Mid-Atlantic and back through the deep south region. Pattern remains nearly unchanged from the past few days. Seabreeze driven showers and thunderstorms beginning to blossom south of Hwy 70 and across SE NC early this afternoon, near area of deeper moisture convergence and instability. Convective development does seem to have been slowed with weak subsidence and cloud cover behind this mornings convection. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPEs 1-2500 J/kg, bulk shear 10-20 kt and steep low level lapse rates. Similar to the past several days, the overall svr threat looks low, however this combination appears supportive of pulse/multicell clusters capable of wet microbursts for the next few hours. In addition to iso svr threat, areas of locally heavy rain will again be possible with PWATs around 2.25" posing the threat for localized flash flooding. Similar to the past several nights, expect convection to dissipate with loss of heating with potential for upstream convection to push eastward and impacting the throughout the night as another shortwave lifts out of the Gulf Coast region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Wed...Front will continue to approach from the west Thursday, pushing into central NC during the afternoon, as mid level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic. Broad SW flow aloft, increasing upper support and moisture support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Similar to past several days, iso strong storms are possible, though the main threat will be heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch may be needed given the potential for 1-3", with locally higher amts, coupled with how much rain has fallen over the past several days. 12z HREF shows 50-80% chances of qpf amts greater than 3" Thursday across much of the area. Slightly below normal temps expected with cloud cover and precip.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Wed... Thursday night through Saturday...Thursday night and Friday will be the most active part of the long term with things finally beginning to calm down by Saturday. Incoming trough which will be located to the north and west Thurs morning will dive SE`wards into the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually cutting off near the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday. Stalling boundary will set up along the Coastal Plain on Thurs providing the focus for precip. With PWAT`s sitting at about 2+ inches, forcing from the stalling boundary, and ample instability across the area (generally 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE), scattered shower and thunderstorm development is forecast Thurs morning with more widespread activity forecast Thurs afternoon/evening. Kept Likely to Categorical PoP`s in the forecast given consistent signal for precip. As this front stalls, winds shear will also be on the increase allowing for the potential of a few stronger storms with strong wind gusts (40-50 mph), frequent lightning, and heavy rain being the primary concern within the strongest cells. The one limiting factor in all of this will be the ongoing widespread cloud cover over ENC which may limit storm organization. A second and stronger front then approaches on Fri with this front tracking across the region late Friday night into Saturday morning once again bringing a threat for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Front finally moves through the region Sat allowing for precip to end quickly from north to south. Through Fri there will be a threat for both river and flash flooding. With PWAT`s hanging around 2+ inches, showers and storms will have the potential to produce torrential downpours through Friday night. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall during this time period. NBM probs for 2+ inches of rain over a 24 hr period Fri are about 30-40%. With FFG also reduced across ENC given previous days rainfall, this gives confidence that we will be at an increased risk for localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. Sunday into midweek next week... Cut off upper low off the Eastern Seaboard will gradually push NE`wards towards the Canadian Maritimes early next week, while surface high builds in from the north on Sun and pushes offshore on Mon. Deep layer N`rly flow from this upper low will drive dry air and subsidence across the Carolinas from Sat night through Monday allowing for precip potential to be greatly diminished with a return to below climo PoPs. Yet another front begins to approach from the west near midweek once again increasing precip chances. N-NE`rly flow will keep temps below avg to avg through the remainder of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Wed...Showers and thunderstorms beginning to blossom south of Hwy 70 early this afternoon. Scattered coverage expected through tonight, becoming more numerous Thursday. Brief periods of sub-VFR possible through this evening, with increasing chances of sub-VFR stratus developing overnight and persisting into Thursday. IFR will be possible Thu morning. Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions can be expected, along with gusty/erratic winds. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms will persist into Saturday morning before a cold front sweeps across ENC and greatly diminishes precip chances behind the front Sat night. Occasional sub VFR conditions expected within any shower or storm that impacts the area. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning through Sat especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall. A return to primarily VFR conditions is forecast from Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through Friday before winds shift to a NE`rly direction at 5-10 kts behind a cold front on Saturday and remain NE`rly into Sun.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Marginal SCA conditions possible this evening and tonight, along with periods of showers and tstms. Little change to the pattern through the period, as SW winds 10-20 kt continue, strongest during the late afternoon and evenings. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt may flirt briefly with SCA for a few hours this evening (sounds and nearshore coastal waters), but still looks a bit too marginal for headlines at this time. Showers and thunderstorms may again impact area waters overnight and Thursday, with potential for gusty winds and freq lightning. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 330 AM Wed...As we get into Thurs, 10-15 kt SW`ry winds with gusts to 20 kts will be possible out ahead of a stalling boundary. Winds become W`rly on Friday before shifting to a NE`rly direction Fri night behind a S`ward moving cold front. Winds will ease Fri night as well from N to S down to 5-15 kts with NE`rly winds persisting through the remainder of the weekend. 2-4 ft seas are forecast along our Coastal Waters Thurs and seas will remain at these heights along our coastal waters into this weekend. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas through Friday before precip chances quickly decrease from north to south on Sat as the aforementioned cold front sweeps across our waters and drier air builds in to the region.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 330 PM Wed...An unstable, and very moist, airmass will remain in place through the end of the week, and will continue to support periods of showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and flooding. It appears the flood/flash flood risk will peak Thursday into Friday when the most widespread coverage of thunderstorms is expected. Of note, eventually some of the mainstem rivers will begin to respond to the ongoing wet pattern, with some rivers potentially coming close to, or exceeding, flood stage late week and/or this weekend.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX