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000
FXUS62 KMHX 070144
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
944 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south across the area late tonight into
Sunday. High pressure builds into the region early next week.
Another cold front will impact the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM Sat...All is quiet now late this evening, with
just some high clouds and leftover convective clouds remaining.
Advancing cold front is now moving through SE VA accompanied by
some robust thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could make a run
to the NOBX, but guidance continues to squash the storms over
the next hour or so. Nevertheless, as the cold front approaches
the area, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over northern NC and push south overnight with best
chances along the coast. Warm again tonight with lows in the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...The cold front, progged to be bisecting
the area near the Pamlico River first thing in the morning,
will slowly push south through the day. Frontal forcing combined
with sea breeze interactions is expected to continue to bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the
day, though will generally be south of highway 70 where greater,
but still meager, instability will reside. Onshore flow will
bring cooler temps across NE section where highs will be around
80, but inland will see highs in the mid 80s with a few upper
80s possible across southern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sat...Upper level ridging builds across the area
for much of the work week. Later in the period, the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cristobal will merge with a low pressure system
over the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the eastern
CONUS including the Carolinas. This will progress very slowly
through the area Friday and into the weekend.

Monday through Wednesday: As an upper level ridge begins to
dominate the pattern, conditions will dry out with no rain
expected through midweek. Southeasterly flow at the surface and
little wind aloft will allow temperatures to remain in the upper
70s to low 80s at the beaches to middle 80s inland for the
first half of the week.

Thursday and Friday: Forecast confidence starts to dip heading
into the end of the week as much will depend upon the
interaction of the remnants of TS Cristobal with the low
pressure system over the great lakes. Without a lot of eastward
forcing, that system will track NNE and its attendant cold front
will creep slowly eastward, finally making it to eastern NC on
Thursday where it will slow to almost a stall through Friday and
into the early portions of the weekend. As PoPs increase so
will the chances for thunder, especially during the afternoon
hours. Temps will depend on the advancement of the front but
assuming slower timing, daytime highs should remain in the mid
80s inland to upper 70s low 80s on the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday Evening/...
As of 720 PM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. As a cold front crosses the area, there will be some
scattered showers or thunderstorms late tonight and then again
tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, but ceilings should
mostly remain above 3000 ft. Winds shifting to the NE/E tomorrow
late morning/afternoon.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 325 AM Sat...Predominant VFR conditions Monday through
Wednesday. A frontal system will approach on Thursday and
increase chances for adverse aviation conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 345 PM Saturday...A cold front will approach the waters
this evening, then slowly push south through the area after
midnight through Sunday morning. SW winds continue around 15-25
kt southern and central waters and 5-15 kt northern waters and
sounds/rivers through this evening ahead of the front, then
become north around 10-15 kt behind the front. Seas, currently
around 2 ft northern waters and 3-5 ft central/southern waters,
are expected to build up to 5-8 ft central/southern waters
overnight, then gradually subside Sunday and expect to drop
below SCA criteria around mid-day.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Westerly winds start to decrease on Sunday
morning, but remaining 20-25 kts in southern offshore zones.
Winds veer NE behind the front at 10-15 kt, then veering SE by
Tuesday night. Seas fall below 6 feet by Sunday morning and
remain 2-4 ft through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SGK
MARINE...RTE/SK