Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 061100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with mainly dry conditions, then a more unsettled pattern for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 7 AM Tuesday...Forecast remains on track. The HRRR Near Surface Smoke Density plot shows the potential for smoke from the Canadian wildfire to make its way into ENC this afternoon, which could prevent high temperatures from reaching the current forecast. Previous Discussion...As of 4 AM Tuesday...The main feature for this period will be this afternoon`s convective potential. Currently, all of ENC is included in SPC`s risk for general thunder. Mesoanalysis shows the best environment for convection will be east of HWY17 this afternoon/early evening. Notable features with today`s setup include: 1) A sharp dewpoint gradient bisecting ENC from southwest to northeast. Inland, dewpoints will be in the low/mid 50s while areas closer to the coast will experience much muggier conditions with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. 2) A robust afternoon seabreeze, which will be the main source of forcing and shear. CAMs are showing ~45kt of deep layer shear along this boundary. Instability is plentiful across much of the CWA (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), but inland counties are much too dry to support any notable shower activity and there is a lack of forcing, so wouldn`t expect much outside of sprinkles if that. Closer to the coast where the environment is more favorable to produce showers and thunderstorms (higher dewpoints overlapping with ample instability and shear along the seabreeze), CAMs are showing shower activity starting as early as 18Z and lasting past sunset. The HRRR and NAM3K are not excited about the setup and show minimal shower activity, whereas the other CAMs show more. With how dry the 00Z sounding was, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity near the coast seems to be the more likely scenario. Highs today will be in the mid/upper 80s inland and upper 70s/low 80s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Mon...If the convective potential discussed in the near term section does prosper, the environment is expected to still be variable into the evening hours. However, CAMs are in agreement of all shower and thunderstorm activity to be off the coast before or near midnight. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than the past couple of nights (low 60s inland, upper 60s coast). A cold front will be making its way south overnight Tuesday and will be nearing the VA/NC border Wednesday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tue...A cold front will bring enhanced shower potential Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Otherwise, mainly settled conditions through Sunday. A stronger frontal system could impact the area early next week. Wednesday through Thursday...Omega-like blocking pattern sets up over North America through the rest of the workweek,with a cutoff upper low over the Northeast. A shortwave pivoting around the low will bring broad lift to the area later Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will reach the area Wednesday morning before briefly stalling nearby into Wednesday night. As such, later Wednesday and Wednesday night will feature the best combination of forcing and deep moisture, and scattered to widespread showers are expected. A few thunderstorms could also develop along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, with locations south of US Hwy 17 seeing a marginal risk for an isolated strong to severe storm or two, with damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size being the primary concerns. Upper subsidence will develop as the shortwave moves away from the area Thursday, but a few showers or storms mainly along the sea breeze in the afternoon remain possible. Friday through early next week...Northeast H5 flow brings drier air aloft Friday, with upper level flow trending more zonal through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the north, with temps trending progressively warmer Friday through Sunday and dry/settled weather expected. Closed upper low develops over the Midwest Sunday, moving across the eastern US Monday into Tuesday. Significant model variability remains with respect to the progression and strength of the upper level and surface features, but the potential for the region to be impacted by a robust frontal system Monday into Tuesday remains. Have opted to persistent chance POPs for the time being. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday evening/... As of 7 AM Tue...Prevailing VFR through the period. Expect gusty winds to start within the next few hours (~G10-16kt) and last until around sunset. Have added VCSH to EWN and OAJ for this afternoon, but any shower activity would likely be scattered. There is potential for smoke from the Canadian wildfire to make its way to ENC today. Although no guidance hinted at VIS or CIGs dropping below VFR during the period, the smoke is something to keep in mind. LONG TERM /Wed through Sun/... As of 315 AM Tue...Low level moisture near a cold front that will very slowly cross the area Wednesday and Wednesday night could bring periods of flight restrictions midweek. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are also possible during this time. Otherwise, the potential for aviation hazards is low through the weekend.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Tuesday...SCAs return at 17Z today for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City with gusts of 25kt and seas 4-6ft. Conditions along the Pamlico Sound are expected to deteriorate shortly after but will improve by late tonight. The central coastal waters, however, hold on to 25kt gusts and 6ft seas through the period. LONG TERM /Wed through Sun/... As of 320 AM Tue...Overall favorable boating conditions through the second half of the workweek and weekend with only weak surface features bringing persistent light to moderate winds, with gustier conditions nearshore with the sea breeze development most afternoons. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...CB/OJC MARINE...CB/OJC

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