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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 061901
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will develop along a front stalled to our
south tonight and Friday. The low will lift northeast offshore
late Friday. High pressure will build across this weekend with
another frontal system expected early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday...Pesky high-based cold-air stratocumulus
have evolved to cloud streets this afternoon, but have still
managed to temper heating across the region, keeping high
temperatures mostly in the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees.
Weak low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal
boundary to our south and high-res guidance shows a few light
showers possible over mainly southern zones into the mid
overnight hours tonight. Any precipitation totals tonight will
be very light. Did lower forecast minimum temperatures based on
latest guidance with lows upper 40s far northeast to mid 50s
southern areas tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday...Confidence is increasing for some much
needed rain, especially over the southern coastal zones for
Friday. As surface low pivots northeast just offshore along
stalled frontal boundary, most all of the high-resolution
models including the 3km NAM, NSSL WRF and HRRR are showing
widespread convective showers along with some isolated
thunderstorms. Steep lapse rates coupled with 25-30 knots of
effective shear could lead to some strong to marginally severe
storms with brief wind gusts and hail being the primary threats.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of our CWA in a
Marginal (level 1/5) threat for severe weather tomorrow. The
high-res models show convective rain elements that could
produce some needed downpours for the area, especially the
southern zones and QPF totals of upwards of one-half inch are
forecast. Have increased PoPs to likely for most of the area
Friday, especially from midday into late afternoon. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s north to low/mid 70s
elsewhere tomorrow.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Thu...The weekend appears dry before the next
frontal system impacts the area Monday through the rest of the
period.

Friday night...Clearing skies overnight and CAA behind the
departing low point to abnormally cool lows in the mid 40s.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds in from the southwest
for the weekend ushering in dry and moderating conditions.
Temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s Saturday, followed by
upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday with increasing southwesterly
flow. With approach of next front late Sunday winds will
increase overnight Sunday with breezy conditions forecast for
OBX.

Monday through Wednesday...Guidance in reasonable agreement next
front will approach the Carolinas Monday morning and cross the
CWA late in the day, bringing an increased chance of showers and
storms. Hesitant to introduce likely PoPs at this point as
frontal passage timing has varied a bit from run to run. For
now, will keep high-end chance mention. Front stalls over the
Gulf States Tue-Wed with weak high pressure attempting to build
in from the north before another wave of low pressure develops
along the boundary midweek bringing a renewed chance for
precipitation.

Highs Monday will be the highest of the long term reaching into
the mid 80s, before falling back into the low 70s for the
remainder of the week with lows in the 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Friday/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...Pesky cold-air stratocumulus lingers
across eastern NC afternoon with cloud bases in the 4000-5000
foot range. Breezy north winds have already started to diminish
inland at the TAF sites. Scattered to broken mid clouds should
persist at the TAF sites through the remainder of the cycle with
VFR conditions expected.

LONG TERM /Fri Night through Tuesday/...
As of 305 AM Thu...High pressure builds back Friday night and
into the weekend and early next week with VFR conditions
returning.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...N/NNE winds diminish and veer to more E
overnight at 5-15 knots with seas at 3-5 feet. Small Craft
Advisories were allowed to expire earlier and these conditions
should persist overnight into Friday. Over the waters south of
Cape Lookout, winds will veer to more SW by morning in response
to surface low to our south moving offshore. All winds speeds
Friday will be 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /Fri Night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Thu...Coastal low developing off the coast Friday
will lifting north of the area Friday night. The Euro is a
happy medium between all guidance and leaned the forecast
heavily in its direction. This results in a forecast for SCA to
develop and spread across all waters by Saturday morning with
winds 20-25 kt. The window will be small and expect seas to
build to predominantly 3-5 feet, although a few 6 footers are
possible well offshore.

High pressure builds south of the waters later Saturday and
Sunday with improving conditions, with next potential concern
being late Sunday and Monday as southwesterly winds increase
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds increase to 20-25 kt
for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, aiding in seas surging to
a peak of 6-8 feet.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CTC/MS
MARINE...CTC/MS