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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 061100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with mainly dry
conditions, then a more unsettled pattern for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 7 AM Tuesday...Forecast remains on track. The HRRR Near
Surface Smoke Density plot shows the potential for smoke from
the Canadian wildfire to make its way into ENC this afternoon,
which could prevent high temperatures from reaching the current
forecast.

Previous Discussion...As of 4 AM Tuesday...The main feature for
this period will be this afternoon`s convective potential.
Currently, all of ENC is included in SPC`s risk for general
thunder. Mesoanalysis shows the best environment for convection
will be east of HWY17 this afternoon/early evening. Notable
features with today`s setup include:

1) A sharp dewpoint gradient bisecting ENC from southwest to
northeast. Inland, dewpoints will be in the low/mid 50s while
areas closer to the coast will experience much muggier
conditions with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.

2) A robust afternoon seabreeze, which will be the main source
of forcing and shear. CAMs are showing ~45kt of deep layer shear
along this boundary.

Instability is plentiful across much of the CWA (MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg), but inland counties are much too dry to support
any notable shower activity and there is a lack of forcing, so
wouldn`t expect much outside of sprinkles if that. Closer to the
coast where the environment is more favorable to produce
showers and thunderstorms (higher dewpoints overlapping with
ample instability and shear along the seabreeze), CAMs are
showing shower activity starting as early as 18Z and lasting
past sunset. The HRRR and NAM3K are not excited about the setup
and show minimal shower activity, whereas the other CAMs show
more. With how dry the 00Z sounding was, isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity near the coast seems to be the more likely
scenario.

Highs today will be in the mid/upper 80s inland and upper
70s/low 80s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Mon...If the convective potential discussed in the
near term section does prosper, the environment is expected to
still be variable into the evening hours. However, CAMs are in
agreement of all shower and thunderstorm activity to be off the
coast before or near midnight. Overnight lows will be several
degrees warmer than the past couple of nights (low 60s inland,
upper 60s coast). A cold front will be making its way south
overnight Tuesday and will be nearing the VA/NC border Wednesday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...A cold front will bring enhanced shower
potential Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Otherwise,
mainly settled conditions through Sunday. A stronger frontal
system could impact the area early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...Omega-like blocking pattern sets
up over North America through the rest of the workweek,with a
cutoff upper low over the Northeast.

A shortwave pivoting around the low will bring broad lift to the
area later Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the surface, a
cold front will reach the area Wednesday morning before
briefly stalling nearby into Wednesday night. As such, later
Wednesday and Wednesday night will feature the best combination
of forcing and deep moisture, and scattered to widespread
showers are expected. A few thunderstorms could also develop
along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, with locations
south of US Hwy 17 seeing a marginal risk for an isolated
strong to severe storm or two, with damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter size being the primary concerns.

Upper subsidence will develop as the shortwave moves away from
the area Thursday, but a few showers or storms mainly along the
sea breeze in the afternoon remain possible.

Friday through early next week...Northeast H5 flow brings drier
air aloft Friday, with upper level flow trending more zonal
through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds in
from the north, with temps trending progressively warmer Friday
through Sunday and dry/settled weather expected.

Closed upper low develops over the Midwest Sunday, moving across
the eastern US Monday into Tuesday. Significant model
variability remains with respect to the progression and strength
of the upper level and surface features, but the potential for
the region to be impacted by a robust frontal system Monday into
Tuesday remains. Have opted to persistent chance POPs for the
time being.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday evening/...
As of 7 AM Tue...Prevailing VFR through the period. Expect
gusty winds to start within the next few hours (~G10-16kt) and
last until around sunset. Have added VCSH to EWN and OAJ for
this afternoon, but any shower activity would likely be
scattered. There is potential for smoke from the Canadian
wildfire to make its way to ENC today. Although no guidance
hinted at VIS or CIGs dropping below VFR during the period, the
smoke is something to keep in mind.

LONG TERM /Wed through Sun/...
As of 315 AM Tue...Low level moisture near a cold front that
will very slowly cross the area Wednesday and Wednesday night
could bring periods of flight restrictions midweek. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are also possible during this
time. Otherwise, the potential for aviation hazards is low
through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...SCAs return at 17Z today for the coastal
waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City with gusts of 25kt and
seas 4-6ft. Conditions along the Pamlico Sound are expected to
deteriorate shortly after but will improve by late tonight. The
central coastal waters, however, hold on to 25kt gusts and 6ft
seas through the period.

LONG TERM /Wed through Sun/...
As of 320 AM Tue...Overall favorable boating conditions through
the second half of the workweek and weekend with only weak
surface features bringing persistent light to moderate winds,
with gustier conditions nearshore with the sea breeze
development most afternoons.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...CB/OJC
MARINE...CB/OJC