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614
FXUS62 KMHX 251057
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
557 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through
this weekend. A weak front will bring a chance of rain Monday,
with dry conditions Tuesday as high pressure becomes entrenched
over the Deep South. The high will shift offshore later next
week and a large degree of uncertainty exists in the forecast
beyond Wednesday as a series of upper level shortwaves move over
the eastern US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 7 AM Sat...Key Messages:

-Refreezing of ice/snow on roads as well as the formation of
 black ice will lead to some hazardous travel conditions through
 later this morning when temps rise above freezing

-Last morning of brutal cold with temps and/or wind chills
 dropping into the mid to upper teens

Temps will remain in the mid to upper teens through shortly
after sunrise, with calm and clear conditions overhead.

High pressure centered over the SE coast will gradually shift
offshore today, with moderating conditions expected. Increasing
low level thicknesses will support highs in the mid to upper 40s
across the forecast area, with abundant sunshine. This should
spell the end for the snowpack (RIP), with a full day of melting
ahead.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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As of 7 AM Sat...High pressure will continue to shift offshore
tonight, but the gradient will tighten as a front moves into the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Though there will be some areas of high
based cirrus, decent radiational cooling conditions will exist,
and allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s
inland, and to around freezing along the coast. With temps below
freezing inland for most of the night, another round of black
ice formation is possible, but its impact should be more
isolated as a large chunk of the snowpack should melt away
today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

KEY POINTS:

 - Warming trend ensues Sunday-Wednesday

 - Monday 10-20% chance of light rain south of hwy 264, likely
   dry along and north of 264

 - A lot of uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday afternoon
   onwards, slight chances of rain Wednesday PM and Saturday

Sunday (1/26):
Sunday a trough of low pressure sweeps through to our north,
weakening the high pressure just offshore. However, further to
the south, high pressure remains largely unaffected by this
trough and ridging extends north and east over ENC keeping us
dry. A weak cold front at 800-900mb with little to no sfc wind
shift will move through from NW to SE Sunday afternoon/evening.
While we could see some cloud cover along this front, no precip
is expected thanks to dry air below 500mb. Temps Sunday a
couple degrees warmer (around 50F) than today despite the cloud
cover.

Monday (1/27):
Monday a weak, E-W oriented elevated front (500mb) will sink S
through the FA upping cloud coverage and increasing precip
chances. Locally we`ll remain sandwiched between the upper
trough over Eern CAN and the Sern stream system crossing Nern
Gulf coast states. Most guidance suggests the precip remaining
south of us. However, the GFS has been consistent in showing
precip reaching the southern half of the CWA. While the GFS is
the outlier, I am not certain enough to discount this outcome.
Still trended downwards with PoPs, now 10-20% (formerly 20-30%)
chance south of hwy 264. Dry lower levels of the atmosphere will
make it hard pressed for precip to reach the ground. If precip
moves in, it will likely be very light in nature, and clouds
will gradually lower as atmospheric column at the lowest levels
moistens with evaporative cooling. By late morning/afternoon,
measurable rain may end up reaching the ground thanks to a more
favorable moisture profile, but should still remain light.
Ptypes are expected to be only rain with this system, but the
front end of the precip event will have to be worth watching,
especially should precip start earlier in the morning than
currently forecast, while temps are at their coldest.

Tuesday (1/28) - Saturday(2/1):
Confidence decreases behind the front through the work-week with
questions about where the front will end up, and how the
boundary will react/move in response weak waves traveling
through the upper level low over Eern CAN. Warming trend ensues
mid-week, with highs climbing to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday.
As of right now, the two "most likely" periods of possible
rainfall are Wednesday night and Saturday. However, I do expect
PoPs to fluctuate quite a bit during this period until there is
more model consensus on the upper level low and the amplitude
and timing of associated shortwaves. Wednesday night we have a
low sweeping across New England, with its associated cold front
moving through the region. Strong high pressure builds in behind
this cold front, and will keep us dry Thursday and Friday.
Saturday starts to shift offshore as low sweeps across the great
lakes. The persistence of this high will be key in determining
if we get precip Saturday or if it shields us from sufficient
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the short
term with high pressure over the area. Skies will be clear
through early tonight, and then some high based cirrus are
expected overnight. Light winds anticipated as well.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...VFR expected Sunday. Monday could bring
sub- VFR CIGs along with slight chances of light rain for
terminals south of hwy 264. Tuesday will be a dry, but breezy
day, with SW gusts 15-20kts. Wednesday will bring a slight
chance of rain and SW gusts 15-20kts as a cold front moves
through the eastern US.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Temporarily improving boating conditions
today, with strengthening winds by early tomorrow morning.

Winds early this morning will be NW 10-20 kts with a few gusts
approaching 25 kts over the outer coastal waters. Winds will
subside today as high pressure shifts offshore, and become WNW
at 5-15 kts this afternoon. The gradient increases tonight and
especially early tomorrow morning and winds will increase to WSW
10-20 kts with some gusts to 25 kts over the outer coastal
waters. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Sunday winds will be out of the W/SW
10-15kts for inland sounds and rivers, and 20-25kts for the Gulf
Stream, abating as we get into the evening. Monday pleasant
boating conditions return, although there are chances of light
rain for marine zones south of the Alligator River,
Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and Oregon Inlet. Tuesday winds pick up
again as a trough of low pressure moves across the Northeast.
While we will remain dry, pinched pressure gradient will result
in SW gusts up to 25 kt for coastal waters Tuesday. SW flow will
usher in warmer air, but with how cold the inland sounds and
rivers are, do not expect much mixing over these zones. As a
result, wind should remain lighter and below small craft
criteria as long as flow is SW for inland sounds and rivers.
Tuesday waves increase to 3-5 in response to the higher winds,
with some 6 footers possible along the gulf stream. Wednesday
winds pick up again, this time 25-30 kts for Gulf Stream,
becoming 10-20kts for inland sounds and rivers as a stronger sfc
low pivots across the northeast. Waves increase to 3-6 ft in
response to the winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ