Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 191837 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 237 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance will move through late this afternoon and evening bringing a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue into the weekend with ridging building aloft. A cold front will approach the area early next week bringing increasing rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of noon Thursday...Sunny skies for most with temps approaching 90 away from the beaches at midday. Resultant sea breeze stretching from Sneads Ferry to Cherry Point to Lowland will only slowly push inland through the rest of the afternoon and deep westerly flow prevails above the surface. No significant forecast changes with the midday update. Previous discussion...Zonal flow aloft will continue through the short term. A weak shortwave and attendant low currently passing north of the area will bring an increase in mid and high clouds early to mid morning but assoc precip expected to remain north of the area. This feature is also serving to tighten pressure gradients across the ENC bringing gusty swly winds and warming temps with low level thicknesses supporting highs in the mid 90s away from the coast with cooler ocean temps keeping temps in the 80s along the coast. Another weak disturbance will move into the area this afternoon which should aid in triggering strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into the evening hours, though several CAMs have backed off on coverage of storms potentially due to low level flow veering to wly this afternoon allowing dewpoints to drop into the lower 60s resulting in not quite as much instability. However, guidance still showing MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon with some up to around 3000 J/kg, which is sufficient to produce severe storms in the presence of 30-40 kt of bulk shear and mid level lapse rates around -7 C/km. This environment supports organized multi clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado and SPC continues to highlight much of the area with a slight risk of severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday...The chance for aforementioned strong to severe thunderstorms continues into the evening hours but will wane by late evening with loss of heating and the disturbance sliding offshore. Kept a slight chance PoP across the northern tier after midnight as some guidance suggesting a decaying MCS could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm overnight. Temps remain quite warm overnight with lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thu...Main story through the period will be near record breaking heat Friday and Saturday, with the pattern becoming unsettled next week. Friday through Sunday...Strong ridging builds back into the Eastern Seaboard Friday, then breaking down late weekend and early next week. Hottest temps of the year so far expected Fri and Sat, with temps flirting with records (see Climate section below for details). Highs Fri and Sat in the mid/upper 90s inland and 85-90 deg along the coast. Heat index values will peak at 99-104 deg Fri afternoon. Isolated showers or storms possible Fri and Sat afternoons, but subsidence aloft should suppress convection. Better chances for scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon and Sun night as with better forcing ahead of approaching front and upper ridge begins to shift off the coast. Muggy nights through the weekend with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Monday through Thursday...Still some uncertainty heading into next week. 00z guidance continues to slow down the front, now not pushing into the area until Monday afternoon or Monday night with weak low pressure developing inland along it. Front may get hung up and stall, then possibly lifting back north as a warm front mid week. Best precip chances now look to be Monday afternoon and Monday night, then more scattered through mid week. More seasonable temps expected. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 2 PM Thu...VFR conditions prevail with Gusty SW winds subsiding after sunset. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, possibly becoming strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concern, but coverage is too limited to justify anything more than VCTS in the TAFs for the time being. Low level moisture is too limited for fog tonight despite light winds and mainly clear skies late. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. A front will approach the area early next week, with potential for scattered showers and storms with occasional sub- VFR conditions Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 215 PM Thu...High pressure ridging in from the east and south continues moderate SW winds tonight and tomorrow, with gusts 20-25 kt through early evening and mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Seas mainly 3 to 5 ft in weak trade swell and southerly windswell. A few thunderstorms could cross the waters this evening, but coverage is expected to be very limited. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Thu...Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt continue through Sun, strongest during the late afternoon and evening hours, with seas generally 2-4 ft. Still some uncertainty heading into early next week with the approaching front. 00z guidance continues to slow down the front, now likely not pushing into the waters until Monday afternoon or Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 05/19 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 87/1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 97/1996 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1965 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 100/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 98/1962 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 05/20 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1964 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 97/1996 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1971 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1964 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 05/21 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 85/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 98/1964 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1962 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/CB SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/SK MARINE...CQD/SK/CB CLIMATE...MHX

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.