Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 242328 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 628 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slowly move offshore tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area from north to south on Thursday. Low pressure will impact the Southeast Coast into the weekend with unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 PM Wed...High pressure continues to shift offshore through tonight with continued clear skies and SW winds. Gustiness inland will diminish with loss of heating this evening. Ample cooling tonight allows lows to reach the mid 40s across most of the area and upper 40s to low 50s in coastal areas with light westerly winds to start the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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As of 4 PM Wed...Dry cold front enters the northern tier in the morning. After frontal passage, winds shift northerly at 5 to 15 kts by noon. Weak cold air advection and increasing cloud coverage associated with the front will limit highs in the north to the mid to upper 50s while the clearer southern areas will reach the low to mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wed...Unsettled weather returns Friday as a series of lows will move along a stationary boundary, increasing chances of rain through the weekend and into next week. Thursday night...Dry conditions continue Thursday night with increasing cloud cover through the night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid/upper 30s inland and low 40s along the coast. Friday through Saturday night...The cold front that pushed through Thursday will be stalled across the Deep South Friday as high pressure continues to dominate the area briefly. As the day progresses on Friday, a coastal trough will develop Friday night as a wave of low pressure lifts along the stalled frontal boundary, meanwhile a shortwave moves aloft. Though there can be iso to widely sct showers Friday afternoon, but the best chances for widespread rain will be Friday night into Saturday. The weak low is forecast to lift Saturday with rain diminishing by the afternoon. Expect temperatures to be in the 50s Friday, then a warm up on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s away from the beaches. Sunday and early next week...Another cold front approaches the area Sunday with a series of lows moving along the boundary as it progresses eastward, leading to a wet period--though timing is uncertain, but trends continues. The frontal boundary is forecast to push through Monday night with lingering showers Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 630 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind gusts will diminish with loss of heating this evening. No fog concerns overnight with SW winds and large temp/dewpoint spread. A dry cold front will move through Thursday, with winds veering becoming N/NE and gusting up to 15 kt late morning and afternoon. Midlevel cloud coverage associated with the front increases from north to south, but will not affect flight cats. Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 3 AM Wed...VFR conditions will continue to dominate region through Friday. Then expect sub-VFR conditions as rain showers spread across the region Friday night through early next week.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 630 PM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Gradient tightens a bit late tonight and early Thursday morning ahead of the front, allowing SW winds to increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt across the outer central waters. Thursday...Seas 2 to 4 feet with westerly winds 10 to 15 kts quickly turn Nerly after passage of a dry cold front. By the afternoon, Nerly winds increase to 15 to 20 kts for coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet with occasional gusts to 25 kts for a few hours in the early afternoon, but not enough duration to justify SCA at this point. For the coastal waters, seas build to 3 to 5 feet by late morning. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 PM Wed...Thursday night, NEerly winds 15 to 20 kts. Seas subside from 3 to 5 feet to 2 to 4 feet overnight. The wind gradient tightens again Friday with NE winds 15-20 knots and veers southerly Saturday. Winds will become SW 10-15 knots Sunday, then increase back to 15-20 knots Monday. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft with occasional 5 footers across the outer coastal waters, then seas are forecast to build above 6 ft Saturday. Seas will subside Sunday 3-5 ft, before seas build back up to 4-6 ft Monday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CQD/BM MARINE...CEB/CQD/BM

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