Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 310201 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1001 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will build in through Sunday. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night followed by cold high pressure into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 10 PM Friday...No significant changes needed to previous forecast this evening. Cool high pres will cont to build in from the NW tonight. Current sct to bkn SCU over the region shld dissipate over bulk of the mainland but expect some clouds to cont along the NE cst and most of the OBX with flow off Ches Bay/ocean. Gusty NNW winds will diminish quickly inland tonight but remain gusty for the beaches as dir becomes NNE. Lows will range from lower 40s deep inland to lower 50s most beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday...High pressure will continue to build into the region with dry conditions. There conts to be decent amount of low lvl moisture with sct to bkn Cu forming again espcly closer to the coast with NE flow. Highs will range from around 60 NW to mid 60s srn cst. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday...Cool high pressure will build in from the north Saturday night then move offshore Sunday. Another strong cold front will push across the area Sunday night with reinforcing high pressure building in from the west early next week bringing the coldest airmass so far this fall. The high migrates offshore for the middle of next week bringing a warming trend. Saturday night...The high slides offshore Saturday night with a coastal trough developing offshore and could see a few showers approaching coastal sections, mainly Hatteras Island to Core Banks. Lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 40s inland to mid 50s coast. Sunday and Sunday night...A northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front approach the area Sunday and push across the area Sunday evening. Moisture will be limited with this system and with only wdly sct showers Sunday into Sunday evening. Temps moderate towards climo ahead of the front Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temps will quickly fall behind the front Sunday night with lows expected in the upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure quickly builds back into the region Monday and Tuesday with bringing an even colder airmass into the region and could see the first frost/freeze of the season Tuesday morning in areas that decouple. Highs Monday expected in the low to mid 50s. 00z EC MOS is not quite as cold Monday night but still forecasting low to mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the immediate coast. Some airmass modification begins Tuesday as the high becoming centered over the area and expect highs around 60. Wednesday and Thursday...The high slides offshore Wednesday and Thursday while continuing to ridge into the Southeast bringing more earnest warming across the area. Another coastal through will develop offshore Wednesday night and Thursday and could see a few showers approach coastal sections. Highs Wednesday expected in the mid to upper 60s and low to mid 70s Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 6 PM Friday...Sct to bkn VFR SCU continues across the area early this evening. Pred VFR expected through the period as cool high pres builds in from the NW. SCU will cont near cst thru Sat but for now appears bkn cigs will remain E of taf sites. Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions prevail through Saturday night. Widely scattered showers possible Sunday which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions will then prevail Monday and Tuesday as cold high pressure build across the area. Gusty NW winds will expected late Sunday night and Monday as cold high pressure builds back into the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sat/... As of 10 PM Friday...High pres will grad build in from the NW this period. Latest obs show N/NNW winds 15-25 kt, gusting to 30 kt with seas 4-6 ft south of Ocracoke and 6-10 ft north. Tight grdnt this aftn will slowly loosen with gusty NNW winds slowly diminishing thru period and becoming NE. SCAs cont, will come down rivers and nrn sounds tonight and Pamlico Sound Sat morn. SCA will cont for all cstl wtrs for seas. Seas will slowly drop to 4 to 7 ft Sat. Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... As of 215 PM Friday...Mdls all show strong NW surge following cold front Sun night and early Mon and increased winds a bit with Gales looking likely most wtrs. Prev disc...Conditions continue to improve Saturday night with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt but seas will likely remain above SCA criteria into Sunday, especially central and northern waters. Another strong cold front will approach the waters Sunday and push across the waters Sunday night. Winds veer back to SW around 10-20 kt Sunday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front, which is progged to push across the waters Sunday evening. Strong NW winds develop behind the front bringing strong SCA conditions with frequent Gale Force gusts possible and seas building back to 5-8 ft. High pressure settles over the area Tuesday with winds and seas dropping below SCA criteria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 10 PM Friday...Dropped CF Advisory for the Outer Banks with winds diminishing and water levels improving. There is potential for minor soundside flooding along the Outer Banks Sunday night and Monday as strong NW flow develops behind a cold front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-137- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CQD SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/CQD/SK MARINE...RF/CQD/SK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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