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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191837
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will move through late this afternoon and evening
bringing a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue into the weekend
with ridging building aloft. A cold front will approach the area
early next week bringing increasing rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of noon Thursday...Sunny skies for most with temps
approaching 90 away from the beaches at midday. Resultant sea
breeze stretching from Sneads Ferry to Cherry Point to Lowland
will only slowly push inland through the rest of the afternoon
and deep westerly flow prevails above the surface. No
significant forecast changes with the midday update.

Previous discussion...Zonal flow aloft will continue through
the short term. A weak shortwave and attendant low currently
passing north of the area will bring an increase in mid and high
clouds early to mid morning but assoc precip expected to remain
north of the area. This feature is also serving to tighten
pressure gradients across the ENC bringing gusty swly winds and
warming temps with low level thicknesses supporting highs in the
mid 90s away from the coast with cooler ocean temps keeping
temps in the 80s along the coast. Another weak disturbance will
move into the area this afternoon which should aid in triggering
strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into
the evening hours, though several CAMs have backed off on
coverage of storms potentially due to low level flow veering to
wly this afternoon allowing dewpoints to drop into the lower 60s
resulting in not quite as much instability. However, guidance
still showing MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon with some up
to around 3000 J/kg, which is sufficient to produce severe
storms in the presence of 30-40 kt of bulk shear and mid level
lapse rates around -7 C/km. This environment supports organized
multi clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and possibly an isolated tornado and SPC continues to
highlight much of the area with a slight risk of severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...The chance for aforementioned strong to
severe thunderstorms continues into the evening hours but will
wane by late evening with loss of heating and the disturbance
sliding offshore. Kept a slight chance PoP across the northern
tier after midnight as some guidance suggesting a decaying MCS
could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm overnight. Temps
remain quite warm overnight with lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Main story through the period will be near
record breaking heat Friday and Saturday, with the pattern
becoming unsettled next week.

Friday through Sunday...Strong ridging builds back into the
Eastern Seaboard Friday, then breaking down late weekend and
early next week. Hottest temps of the year so far expected Fri
and Sat, with temps flirting with records (see Climate section
below for details). Highs Fri and Sat in the mid/upper 90s
inland and 85-90 deg along the coast. Heat index values will
peak at 99-104 deg Fri afternoon. Isolated showers or storms
possible Fri and Sat afternoons, but subsidence aloft should
suppress convection. Better chances for scattered showers and
storms Sunday afternoon and Sun night as with better forcing
ahead of approaching front and upper ridge begins to shift off
the coast. Muggy nights through the weekend with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday through Thursday...Still some uncertainty heading into
next week. 00z guidance continues to slow down the front, now
not pushing into the area until Monday afternoon or Monday night
with weak low pressure developing inland along it. Front may get
hung up and stall, then possibly lifting back north as a warm
front mid week. Best precip chances now look to be Monday
afternoon and Monday night, then more scattered through mid week.
More seasonable temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 2 PM Thu...VFR conditions prevail with Gusty SW winds
subsiding after sunset. A few isolated thunderstorms are
possible this evening, possibly becoming strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concern, but
coverage is too limited to justify anything more than VCTS in
the TAFs for the time being. Low level moisture is too limited
for fog tonight despite light winds and mainly clear skies late.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. A front will approach the area early next week, with
potential for scattered showers and storms with occasional sub-
VFR conditions Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 215 PM Thu...High pressure ridging in from the east and
south continues moderate SW winds tonight and tomorrow, with
gusts 20-25 kt through early evening and mainly south of Oregon
Inlet. Seas mainly 3 to 5 ft in weak trade swell and southerly
windswell. A few thunderstorms could cross the waters this
evening, but coverage is expected to be very limited.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Thu...Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt continue through
Sun, strongest during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
seas generally 2-4 ft. Still some uncertainty heading into
early next week with the approaching front. 00z guidance
continues to slow down the front, now likely not pushing into
the waters until Monday afternoon or Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 05/19

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        96/1962  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   87/1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      97/1996  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   89/1965  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        100/1996  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1962  (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 05/20

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/1964  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   86/1962  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      97/1996  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   89/1971  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         98/1996  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    94/1964  (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 05/21

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        96/1962  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   85/1962  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1964  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   88/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         98/1996  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    94/1962  (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/CB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK/CB
CLIMATE...MHX