Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 061901 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 301 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will develop along a front stalled to our south tonight and Friday. The low will lift northeast offshore late Friday. High pressure will build across this weekend with another frontal system expected early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday...Pesky high-based cold-air stratocumulus have evolved to cloud streets this afternoon, but have still managed to temper heating across the region, keeping high temperatures mostly in the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees. Weak low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal boundary to our south and high-res guidance shows a few light showers possible over mainly southern zones into the mid overnight hours tonight. Any precipitation totals tonight will be very light. Did lower forecast minimum temperatures based on latest guidance with lows upper 40s far northeast to mid 50s southern areas tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday...Confidence is increasing for some much needed rain, especially over the southern coastal zones for Friday. As surface low pivots northeast just offshore along stalled frontal boundary, most all of the high-resolution models including the 3km NAM, NSSL WRF and HRRR are showing widespread convective showers along with some isolated thunderstorms. Steep lapse rates coupled with 25-30 knots of effective shear could lead to some strong to marginally severe storms with brief wind gusts and hail being the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of our CWA in a Marginal (level 1/5) threat for severe weather tomorrow. The high-res models show convective rain elements that could produce some needed downpours for the area, especially the southern zones and QPF totals of upwards of one-half inch are forecast. Have increased PoPs to likely for most of the area Friday, especially from midday into late afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s north to low/mid 70s elsewhere tomorrow.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Thu...The weekend appears dry before the next frontal system impacts the area Monday through the rest of the period. Friday night...Clearing skies overnight and CAA behind the departing low point to abnormally cool lows in the mid 40s. Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds in from the southwest for the weekend ushering in dry and moderating conditions. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s Saturday, followed by upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday with increasing southwesterly flow. With approach of next front late Sunday winds will increase overnight Sunday with breezy conditions forecast for OBX. Monday through Wednesday...Guidance in reasonable agreement next front will approach the Carolinas Monday morning and cross the CWA late in the day, bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. Hesitant to introduce likely PoPs at this point as frontal passage timing has varied a bit from run to run. For now, will keep high-end chance mention. Front stalls over the Gulf States Tue-Wed with weak high pressure attempting to build in from the north before another wave of low pressure develops along the boundary midweek bringing a renewed chance for precipitation. Highs Monday will be the highest of the long term reaching into the mid 80s, before falling back into the low 70s for the remainder of the week with lows in the 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Friday/... As of 115 PM Thursday...Pesky cold-air stratocumulus lingers across eastern NC afternoon with cloud bases in the 4000-5000 foot range. Breezy north winds have already started to diminish inland at the TAF sites. Scattered to broken mid clouds should persist at the TAF sites through the remainder of the cycle with VFR conditions expected. LONG TERM /Fri Night through Tuesday/... As of 305 AM Thu...High pressure builds back Friday night and into the weekend and early next week with VFR conditions returning.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Tonight and Friday/... As of 3 PM Thursday...N/NNE winds diminish and veer to more E overnight at 5-15 knots with seas at 3-5 feet. Small Craft Advisories were allowed to expire earlier and these conditions should persist overnight into Friday. Over the waters south of Cape Lookout, winds will veer to more SW by morning in response to surface low to our south moving offshore. All winds speeds Friday will be 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /Fri Night through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Thu...Coastal low developing off the coast Friday will lifting north of the area Friday night. The Euro is a happy medium between all guidance and leaned the forecast heavily in its direction. This results in a forecast for SCA to develop and spread across all waters by Saturday morning with winds 20-25 kt. The window will be small and expect seas to build to predominantly 3-5 feet, although a few 6 footers are possible well offshore. High pressure builds south of the waters later Saturday and Sunday with improving conditions, with next potential concern being late Sunday and Monday as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds increase to 20-25 kt for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, aiding in seas surging to a peak of 6-8 feet.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...CTC/MS MARINE...CTC/MS

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