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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 242328
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slowly move offshore tonight. A weak cold
front will cross the area from north to south on Thursday. Low
pressure will impact the Southeast Coast into the weekend with
unsettled weather.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 PM Wed...High pressure continues to shift offshore
through tonight with continued clear skies and SW winds.
Gustiness inland will diminish with loss of heating this
evening. Ample cooling tonight allows lows to reach the mid 40s
across most of the area and upper 40s to low 50s in coastal
areas with light westerly winds to start the day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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As of 4 PM Wed...Dry cold front enters the northern tier in the
morning. After frontal passage, winds shift northerly at 5 to
15 kts by noon. Weak cold air advection and increasing cloud
coverage associated with the front will limit highs in the north
to the mid to upper 50s while the clearer southern areas will
reach the low to mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Unsettled weather returns Friday as a series
of lows will move along a stationary boundary, increasing
chances of rain through the weekend and into next week.

Thursday night...Dry conditions continue Thursday night with
increasing cloud cover through the night. Overnight lows are
expected to drop into the mid/upper 30s inland and low 40s along
the coast.

Friday through Saturday night...The cold front that pushed through
Thursday will be stalled across the Deep South Friday as high
pressure continues to dominate the area briefly. As the day
progresses on Friday, a coastal trough will develop Friday night as
a wave of low pressure lifts along the stalled frontal boundary,
meanwhile a shortwave moves aloft. Though there can be iso to widely
sct showers Friday afternoon, but the best chances for widespread
rain will be Friday night into Saturday. The weak low is forecast to
lift Saturday with rain diminishing by the afternoon. Expect
temperatures to be in the 50s Friday, then a warm up on Saturday
with highs in the upper 60s away from the beaches.

Sunday and early next week...Another cold front approaches the area
Sunday with a series of lows moving along the boundary as it
progresses eastward, leading to a wet period--though timing is
uncertain, but trends continues. The frontal boundary is forecast to
push through Monday night with lingering showers Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Wind gusts will diminish with loss of heating this
evening. No fog concerns overnight with SW winds and large
temp/dewpoint spread. A dry cold front will move through
Thursday, with winds veering becoming N/NE and gusting up to 15
kt late morning and afternoon. Midlevel cloud coverage
associated with the front increases from north to south, but
will not affect flight cats.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...VFR conditions will continue to dominate
region through Friday. Then expect sub-VFR conditions as rain
showers spread across the region Friday night through early next
week.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Gradient tightens a bit late
tonight and early Thursday morning ahead of the front, allowing
SW winds to increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft.
Could see a few gusts to 25 kt across the outer central waters.

Thursday...Seas 2 to 4 feet with westerly winds 10 to 15 kts
quickly turn Nerly after passage of a dry cold front. By the
afternoon, Nerly winds increase to 15 to 20 kts for coastal
waters north of Ocracoke Inlet with occasional gusts to 25 kts
for a few hours in the early afternoon, but not enough duration
to justify SCA at this point. For the coastal waters, seas build
to 3 to 5 feet by late morning.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Wed...Thursday night, NEerly winds 15 to 20 kts.
Seas subside from 3 to 5 feet to 2 to 4 feet overnight. The wind
gradient tightens again Friday with NE winds 15-20 knots and
veers southerly Saturday. Winds will become SW 10-15 knots
Sunday, then increase back to 15-20 knots Monday. Seas will
generally be 2-4 ft with occasional 5 footers across the outer
coastal waters, then seas are forecast to build above 6 ft
Saturday. Seas will subside Sunday 3-5 ft, before seas build
back up to 4-6 ft Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CEB/CQD/BM