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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 310201
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build in through Sunday. A strong cold
front will cross the area Sunday night followed by cold high
pressure into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Friday...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast this evening. Cool high pres will cont to build in
from the NW tonight. Current sct to bkn SCU over the region shld
dissipate over bulk of the mainland but expect some clouds to
cont along the NE cst and most of the OBX with flow off Ches
Bay/ocean. Gusty NNW winds will diminish quickly inland tonight
but remain gusty for the beaches as dir becomes NNE. Lows will
range from lower 40s deep inland to lower 50s most beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...High pressure will continue to build into
the region with dry conditions. There conts to be decent amount
of low lvl moisture with sct to bkn Cu forming again espcly
closer to the coast with NE flow. Highs will range from around
60 NW to mid 60s srn cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...Cool high pressure will build in from the
north Saturday night then move offshore Sunday. Another strong
cold front will push across the area Sunday night with
reinforcing high pressure building in from the west early next
week bringing the coldest airmass so far this fall. The high
migrates offshore for the middle of next week bringing a warming
trend.

Saturday night...The high slides offshore Saturday night with a
coastal trough developing offshore and could see a few showers
approaching coastal sections, mainly Hatteras Island to Core
Banks. Lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 40s inland to
mid 50s coast.

Sunday and Sunday night...A northern stream shortwave and
attendant cold front approach the area Sunday and push across
the area Sunday evening. Moisture will be limited with this
system and with only wdly sct showers Sunday into Sunday
evening. Temps moderate towards climo ahead of the front Sunday
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temps will quickly fall
behind the front Sunday night with lows expected in the upper
30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure quickly builds back into the
region Monday and Tuesday with bringing an even colder airmass
into the region and could see the first frost/freeze of the
season Tuesday morning in areas that decouple. Highs Monday
expected in the low to mid 50s. 00z EC MOS is not quite as cold
Monday night but still forecasting low to mid 30s inland to low
to mid 40s along the immediate coast. Some airmass modification
begins Tuesday as the high becoming centered over the area and
expect highs around 60.

Wednesday and Thursday...The high slides offshore Wednesday and
Thursday while continuing to ridge into the Southeast bringing
more earnest warming across the area. Another coastal through
will develop offshore Wednesday night and Thursday and could see
a few showers approach coastal sections. Highs Wednesday
expected in the mid to upper 60s and low to mid 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 6 PM Friday...Sct to bkn VFR SCU continues across the area
early this evening. Pred VFR expected through the period as cool
high pres builds in from the NW. SCU will cont near cst thru
Sat but for now appears bkn cigs will remain E of taf sites.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions prevail through Saturday
night. Widely scattered showers possible Sunday which may bring
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions will then
prevail Monday and Tuesday as cold high pressure build across
the area. Gusty NW winds will expected late Sunday night and
Monday as cold high pressure builds back into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 10 PM Friday...High pres will grad build in from the NW
this period. Latest obs show N/NNW winds 15-25 kt, gusting to
30 kt with seas 4-6 ft south of Ocracoke and 6-10 ft north.
Tight grdnt this aftn will slowly loosen with gusty NNW winds
slowly diminishing thru period and becoming NE. SCAs cont, will
come down rivers and nrn sounds tonight and Pamlico Sound Sat
morn. SCA will cont for all cstl wtrs for seas. Seas will slowly
drop to 4 to 7 ft Sat.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Mdls all show strong NW surge following
cold front Sun night and early Mon and increased winds a bit
with Gales looking likely most wtrs.

Prev disc...Conditions continue to improve Saturday night with
winds diminishing to 10-15 kt but seas will likely remain above
SCA criteria into Sunday, especially central and northern
waters. Another strong cold front will approach the waters
Sunday and push across the waters Sunday night. Winds veer back
to SW around 10-20 kt Sunday afternoon ahead of a strong cold
front, which is progged to push across the waters Sunday
evening. Strong NW winds develop behind the front bringing
strong SCA conditions with frequent Gale Force gusts possible
and seas building back to 5-8 ft. High pressure settles over the
area Tuesday with winds and seas dropping below SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 10 PM Friday...Dropped CF Advisory for the Outer Banks
with winds diminishing and water levels improving. There is
potential for minor soundside flooding along the Outer Banks
Sunday night and Monday as strong NW flow develops behind a cold
front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/CQD/SK
MARINE...RF/CQD/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX