Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 070144 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 944 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south across the area late tonight into Sunday. High pressure builds into the region early next week. Another cold front will impact the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 935 PM Sat...All is quiet now late this evening, with just some high clouds and leftover convective clouds remaining. Advancing cold front is now moving through SE VA accompanied by some robust thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could make a run to the NOBX, but guidance continues to squash the storms over the next hour or so. Nevertheless, as the cold front approaches the area, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern NC and push south overnight with best chances along the coast. Warm again tonight with lows in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...The cold front, progged to be bisecting the area near the Pamlico River first thing in the morning, will slowly push south through the day. Frontal forcing combined with sea breeze interactions is expected to continue to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the day, though will generally be south of highway 70 where greater, but still meager, instability will reside. Onshore flow will bring cooler temps across NE section where highs will be around 80, but inland will see highs in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s possible across southern sections. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Sat...Upper level ridging builds across the area for much of the work week. Later in the period, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal will merge with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the eastern CONUS including the Carolinas. This will progress very slowly through the area Friday and into the weekend. Monday through Wednesday: As an upper level ridge begins to dominate the pattern, conditions will dry out with no rain expected through midweek. Southeasterly flow at the surface and little wind aloft will allow temperatures to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s at the beaches to middle 80s inland for the first half of the week. Thursday and Friday: Forecast confidence starts to dip heading into the end of the week as much will depend upon the interaction of the remnants of TS Cristobal with the low pressure system over the great lakes. Without a lot of eastward forcing, that system will track NNE and its attendant cold front will creep slowly eastward, finally making it to eastern NC on Thursday where it will slow to almost a stall through Friday and into the early portions of the weekend. As PoPs increase so will the chances for thunder, especially during the afternoon hours. Temps will depend on the advancement of the front but assuming slower timing, daytime highs should remain in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s low 80s on the coast. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through Sunday Evening/... As of 720 PM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. As a cold front crosses the area, there will be some scattered showers or thunderstorms late tonight and then again tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, but ceilings should mostly remain above 3000 ft. Winds shifting to the NE/E tomorrow late morning/afternoon. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 325 AM Sat...Predominant VFR conditions Monday through Wednesday. A frontal system will approach on Thursday and increase chances for adverse aviation conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Sunday/... As of 345 PM Saturday...A cold front will approach the waters this evening, then slowly push south through the area after midnight through Sunday morning. SW winds continue around 15-25 kt southern and central waters and 5-15 kt northern waters and sounds/rivers through this evening ahead of the front, then become north around 10-15 kt behind the front. Seas, currently around 2 ft northern waters and 3-5 ft central/southern waters, are expected to build up to 5-8 ft central/southern waters overnight, then gradually subside Sunday and expect to drop below SCA criteria around mid-day. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Sat...Westerly winds start to decrease on Sunday morning, but remaining 20-25 kts in southern offshore zones. Winds veer NE behind the front at 10-15 kt, then veering SE by Tuesday night. Seas fall below 6 feet by Sunday morning and remain 2-4 ft through the remainder of the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...RTE/SGK MARINE...RTE/SK

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