-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
052
FXUS62 KMHX 010212
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1012 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the east coast Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds in from the west through the
holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 2200 Monday...Have increased PoPs along the immediate
coast but kept below mentionable for the first half of the
overnight to show the potential for some offshore showers
skirting the coast.

Previous Disco...

Upper ridging and SFC high pressure remain centered over the
Wern Atlantic S of Bermuda with a thermal trough across the
Piedmont with SW flow continuing to bring a very warm and humid
airmass across the region. A weak front approaching from the west
will keep a pinched pressure gradient overnight which will dampen
cooling, but keep any fog threat at bay. Mostly clear night
expected with temps dropping to the mid-70s inland (upper-70s to
near 80 beaches), with showers and tstorms expected to remain
offshore.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 2200 Monday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday
afternoon

- An approaching cold front may bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest chances west of Highway 17.

A broad trough will pivot across the eastern US Tuesday as a surface
cold front will push slowly across NC. Some offshore showers may
skirt portions of the Sern coast early, with PoPs increasing by
midday in the usual seabreeze areas. Enough instability will be
present for a few stronger storms to develop in the late
afternoon/evening, especially for areas west of Highway 17.
Latest CAM guidance does keep ENC largely dry tomorrow, so
lending uncertainty to the coverage of storms. This will be
monitored for future updates. The gradient between the Bermuda
High and the approaching trough will become tighter on Tuesday,
resulting in gusty winds across the area but especially along
the coast. Heat indices around 100 are expected Tuesday
afternoon. PoPs increase from west to east after sunset as the
front inches closer.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday Night
   and Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week and could
   bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

A broad trough will pivot across the eastern US Tuesday, moving
overhead Wednesday and offshore late week. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly cross into NC Tuesday Night. The
front will get hung up across ENC on Wednesday. This boundary,
coupled with the arrival of greater upper level support from the
trough, will bring likely to categorical PoPs across the area.
Slow storm motions, long skinny CAPE profiles, and PWATs in
excess of 2" support concern for heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding Wednesday afternoon/evening. WPC
has our entire CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall. Given a lack of shear, the severe potential is of less
concern than that of flooding rain. However, some stronger
gusts within thunderstorms remain possible.

The surface front will slowly move east on Thursday but mid and
upper troughing will persist across the east coast through Friday.
The proximity of this front and the development of the afternoon
seabreeze will keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for
most of the area on Thursday. There`s potential for a low to develop
along the stalled boundary once it encounters the warmer Gulf Stream
waters on Thursday, but this feature would progress to the northeast
and away from our coast as high pressure builds in from the west.

A closed low will then move through southern Quebec and into the
northeast US on Friday with a reinforcing cold front sagging south
into the FA. Better upper level support will be displaced to the
north, but ample moisture will still be in place to support a few
showers and thunderstorms. We`ll return to a more typical summertime
pattern to start the weekend with seabreeze convection being the
focal point of precip chances as high pressure moves back in.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1930 Monday...

VFR flight cats expected through the overnight. Tightened
gradients continue tonight with SW winds around 5-10 kt which
will preclude fog development. With that said, should the
unlikely happen and winds decouple in sheltered spots, some
patchy fog will be possible; best chances near OAJ. Some
guidance does depict low chances of low stratus bringing MVFR
conditions across the SWern portions of the forecast area
before dawn tomorrow, but confidence in any MVFR conditions
occurring is currently low. The guidance that is hitting this
hard has shifted the MVFR CIGs further W than previously
modeled. Have included few015 in early morning hours for OAJ and
ISO just to hint at the chance. Tuesday will be fairly similar
to today:
SW winds 10-15kt with inland gusts 15-20kt, 20-25kt closer to
the coast, diurnal CU field, with a chance of afternoon
seabreeze showers and tstorms. Conditions deteriorate after the
end of this TAF cycle as shower activity associated with the
slowly approaching cold front ramps up.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Monday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR
flight conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday as a slow
moving front brings chances for thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will persist
through the rest of the period with PoPs highest near the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...

As of 2115 Monday...

No changed required as forecast is tracking well.

Previous disco...as of 1330 Monday....

Key Messages

 - SCA conditions developing across most of the coastal waters

Winds will continue to increase this afternoon as the gradient
tightens ahead of a slow moving cold front. Small craft
conditions will develop across portions of the coastal waters
late this afternoon/evening as winds become SW 15-20 with
frequent gusts to 25 kts. Winds subside slightly overnight as
the thermal gradient weakens, but restrengthen tomorrow morning
to SW 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Small craft conditions
spread to all coastal and inland waters tomorrow and seas build
to 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night though Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Monday...Small craft conditions continue Tuesday
night through most of Wednesday ahead of a slow moving cold
front. Southwest winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to
around 30 kt Tuesday night, with seas building to 5-6 ft. By
late Wednesday morning, the gradient will become more relaxed.
Southwest winds will drop back to around 15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt with seas falling to 3-5 ft by the afternoon. Winds will
generally be southwesterly at 10-15 kt on Thursday and variable
at 10-15 kt on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-150-
     152-154-156-158-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/ZC
SHORT TERM...CEB/ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/ZC