Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 122346
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
746 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic through the rest
of the week, while a trough of low pressure remains across the
Southeastern U.S. A weak backdoor cold front will move into
the area over the weekend and stall. A series of lows will move
along the front Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM Wed...The latest radar returns are showing most of
the afternoon showers and thunderstorms have either diminished
or weakened. There remains a few passing showers moving
onshore, but this will be short-lived, then expect a dry
forecast through midnight. A weak low/inverted trough off the
Carolina Coast will begin to creep northward after midnight
with showers to spread northward towards the coastal counties
prior to sunrise, with fairly decent covg of showers expected
along the coast in the early morning. PW`s will be quite high
generally 2-2.25" late, supporting the threat for some heavier
rain rates developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Aforementioned coastal trough/weak low will
overspread E NC through the day, with sct to numerous showers
and embedded thunder expected. While the threat for some gusty
winds will exist with convection, the main threat is going to be
heavy rain and minor flooding, as PW`s aoa 2.25" will envelope
the region. High temps will struggle into the mid/upr 80s due to
the widespread clouds and showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Wet weather along with seasonable
temperatures are expected through the long term period, as a
closed low currently over MO moves east and evolves into an open
wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing
is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of
next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across
southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the
typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist
through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and
stall while a series of weak lows move along it and enhance
rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible
over this period with the potential for local flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally
heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values
AOA 2" and sufficient instability through the long term period.
While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain,
there is enough confidence to forecast likely PoPs through the
weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along
the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for
early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent
forecasts if current model trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 715 PM Wed...High confidence in VFR conditions for the
next 6 hours. The daytime showers and thunderstorms are
diminishing leading to a mostly clear start, then onshore clouds
will start to move in after midnight. TAF sites at KPGV and KISO
received rain this afternoon and will most likely see patchy
fog and low stratus to develop after midnight, while the coastal
sites (KEWN & KOAJ) will likely see low stratus. Scattered
showers will start to increase from south to north after
midnight, impacting the coastal TAF sites, first, then the
inland sites late morning. Most TAF sites will start out around
MVFR conditions around 12z, and will gradually increase to VFR
conditions by early afternoon. Some showers can be heavy at
times leading to brief MVFR or IFR.

Long Term /Thursday night through Mon/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...As we enter a wetter pattern, sub VFR
conditions are more frequent in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms which are forecast through the period,
especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances
increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or
stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 715 PM Wed...Winds will continue out of serly direction
5-15 kts across the marine zones. Nearshore waves will be 1-2 ft
with offshore waves 2-3 feet. Winds veer more to the S later
Thu afternoon, and some inc in speeds possible esp for the
ctrl/srn waters, though conditions remain below SCA levels. Some
4 ft sets develop by afternoon across the outer waters.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions will continue
through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt,
with occasional gusts to around 20 kt each afternoon/evening
through Fri evening as the sea breeze develops and differential
heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. A wavy cold front
will move into the waters and stall over the weekend. Winds will
become W around 10 kt Fri night, then N/NE 10-15 kt Sat and E
10-15 kt Sunday. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through SAt then
building to 3-5 ft Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/TL/BM



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