Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231410
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag south through the area today, then stall
tonight vicinity of the Crystal Coast. There will be an
increased risk of showers and thunderstorms along and south of
the front, especially this afternoon through tonight. The front
will stall over the area through mid week, then lift back north
as a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday. Another cold
front will impact the area Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM Monday...Complex situation the next 36-48 hours
with a stalled front across eastern NC and the arrival of low
pressure currently moving north through the deep south. This low
should move into central NC tonight into tomorrow enhancing
moisture advection and lift across the area. A diffuse "cold"
frontal boundary was currently located from roughly Rodanthe to
just north of PGV. This boundary is forecast to drift south
today to be located vicinity of the Crystal Coast by early
evening. Radar indicates an organized area of convection well
off the NC coast this morning. Subsidence in the wake of this
system is likely to suppress convective development until mid or
late this afternoon. Thereafter, diurnal destabilization and
convergence near the boundary will lead to the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the
greatest coverage along and west of the Highway 17 corridor.
HREF guidance was forecasting an enhancement in the low to mid
level wind fields this afternoon and evening and this shear
combined with ML CAPES around 2000 J/kg and PW values 1.75-2"
should be enough to support at least a low end severe wind/hail
threat, especially in areas along/west of Highway 17 where the
SPC has forecast a "Marginal" severe weather risk today. With
the surface flow expected to be easterly, there will also be the
possibility for one or two spin-ups and the SPC has a 2%
tornado risk across the Marginal outlook area.

The SFC low that moved ashore along the north- central Gulf
Coast late last night will continue to lift N/NE through the
Southeast States today and into the southern Appalachians by
tonight. Along and east of this low, a plume of better low-mid
level moisture will get pulled north into a SFC boundary that
will be stalled west to east across North Carolina. Initially,
the focus for steadier rain and scattered thunderstorms will be
from central Alabama NE into western NC. With time, however,
daytime heating amid a moist boundary layer will lead to a
destabilizing airmass and weakening inhibition along and south
of the SFC boundary, supporting an increased risk of showers and
thunderstorms with torrential downpours. With forecast storm
motions expected to be parallel to the SFC boundary/instability
axis, there will be potential for some training of storms.
Meanwhile, a relatively higher PWat airmass for this time of
year (1.75-2.00") should support heavier rainfall rates where
convection occurs. ENC is still running low for precip of late,
which should help keep the flooding threat lower. However, the
heavier rainfall rates and the potential for some training of
storms for a time may allow some ponding of water/minor flooding
to occur, especially in any urban areas. Where/if training
occurs, HREF max fields suggest amounts of 2-4" are possible.

Temp-wise, highs were lowered north of the front due to the
cooler onshore flow and widespread clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Monday...The frontal boundary will remain draped
across the area through tonight and, with the SFC low
approaching the area, may keep a risk of showers and isolated
thunderstorms going through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 5 AM Monday...Upper ridging remains off the Southeast
coast through mid week bringing moist SW flow across the
region. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled
across ENC or just offshore through Wednesday night before
lifting back north as a warm front in Thursday. Meanwhile, a
remnant low will ride along the front and move into the area
Tuesday, then meander across region through Wednesday night.
Convergence along the boundary and shortwave energy lifting
through the ridge will bring periods of unsettled weather
through mid week. PW values around 1.75-2" will bring the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially on Tuesday when
upper forcing and shear will be better. Coverage of storms may
be less on Wednesday depending of the position of the front and
sfc low, which some guidance suggest it could shift offshore.
Clouds and precip will keep temps near or slightly below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The boundary is progged to lift north on Thursday ahead of a
complex low pressure system lifting from the Central Plains
into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Low press will lift
across the Ohio River Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic
states Friday and Saturday with the attendant cold front progged
to push across the area Saturday. Good moisture feed out of the
Gulf of Mexico and jet dynamics will bring periods of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Details and timing
difference continue among the models but appear to be a bit
faster with the heaviest precip moving offshore late Friday
night but lingering showers may continue into Saturday. Kept a
low PoP in the forecast on Sunday but models are trending drier
with high pressure building in from the west. Temps warm to
above normal on Thursday with increasing southerly flow ahead of
the front, then expected to be near normal Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 800 AM Monday...A weak frontal boundary will sag slowly
south across ENC over the next 12-18 hours, eventually slowing
down and stalling near the Crystal Coast by early this evening.
Low-level moistening ahead of the front may lead to a period of
MVFR CIGs over the next few hours, however the better chance
comes Monday afternoon into Monday night as moisture advection
and lift increases along the front. This will also support an
increased risk of SHRA and TSRA and reduced VIS. By Monday
evening or Monday night, a SCT/BKN layer of low clouds may
develop, with IFR conditions not out of the realm of
possibility. For now, I kept with widespread MVFR conditions and
a SCT layer below 1k ft. Lastly, as the front moves through, a
NE/E wind will develop, possibly increasing some Monday night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 530 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will continue through
much of the long term bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions
across rtes. A frontal boundary and low pressure area will be
stalled across the area Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Tuesday appears to be the best opportunity for prolonged sub-VFR
with some improvement possible Wednesday and more likely
Thursday with the boundary lifting north. A stronger cold front
approaches Friday with periods of showers and thunderstorms
increasing. With greater moisture across the area, late night
and early morning fog will also be possible most days.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1010 AM Monday...A weak cold front will move south
through the northern waters today and into the central/southern
waters early this evening. The front will then stall through
tonight over, or just south, of the southern waters.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will shift around to
northeasterly/easterly through tonight. In general, seas will be
2-4 ft both ahead of and behind the front. Wind gusts of
20-25kt are likely across the northern waters where the
northeasterly flow will be the strongest behind the front.
However, conditions look too marginal for a SCA headline at this
time. Along and south of the front, there will be an increased
risk of showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 AM Monday...A frontal boundary will be stalled near the
area Tuesday through Wednesday night bringing generally light
winds around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-4 ft, outside of
showers and thunderstorms. Wind direction a bit difficult to pin
down and will be determined by the location of the front. The
front will lift north of the area Thursday with SCA conditions
possibly late in the week as southerly winds increase to around
15-25 kt and seas build up to 3-5 ft and potentially up to 6 ft
across outer portions of the coastal waters late Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM/JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/JME/SK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.