Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
624 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High pressure will remain centered over the Carolinas today,
gradually sliding off the coast tonight. A series of low
pressure systems will impact the area Friday into early next


As of 625 AM Thu...Latest analysis shows 1025mb high pressure
centered over the Carolinas this morning. Today begins the grad
warming trend as flow becomes more southerly and heights build.
After a cool start this morning, highs will climb into the mid
to upper 50s. Sct mid and high clouds through the day.


As of 150 AM Thu...High pressure will continue to slide off the
coast overnight as low pressure system moves into the Mid-West
and weak coastal trough develops along the NC coast. It should
be a much milder night with increasing clouds. Lows in the
mid/upper 30s inland and 40s for the beaches. Coastal trough may
bring some light showers to the Outer Banks after midnight.
Increased pops slightly from previous forecast.


As of 3:30 AM Thursday...The long term pattern is warmer than
average and unsettled with multiple opportunities for rain and
maybe a few rumbles of thunder.

Friday - Saturday...The long term begins with a southeast ridge and
multiple mid-level shortwaves passing over the area. At the surface,
a warm front will be stretched across the NC coast. This front,
along with strong mid and upper-level winds, could be enough forcing
to support showers across ENC on Friday. PoP chances will be higher
on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. A slight
chance of thunder is also possible along the immediate coast. Highs
will be around 60-70.

Sunday...Heights fall as an upper trough approaches from the
west and a mid-level trough moves across the Ohio River Valley.
A surface low will move northeast across the Great Lakes and
drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring
increased PoPs and chances for thunder. Highs will be 60-70 once

Monday...A much stronger upper jet moves overhead as the gradient
tightens between a southeast ridge and another trough moving east.
These features, along with a surface trough, will support continued
slight chance to chance PoPs. Temps will be a few degrees cooler
behind the front (low 60s) and will continue to gradually cool down
through the rest of the week.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Things become more quiet behind Monday`s
surface trough and will remain dry through the rest of the period.
Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s-40s.


SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with sct mid and high clouds and light winds. Ceilings
begin to lower late tonight, especially along the coast as weak
coastal trough develops. There is potential for patchy fog to
develop late tonight and early Friday morning, though confidence
is too low to include in TAFs at this time.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3:45 AM Thursday...Multiple chances for sub-VFR
conditions are possible during the long term. There will be
chances for rain each day, but Saturday and Sunday pose the best
risk for heavier showers and a few rumbles of thunder
(especially nearer to the coast). Winds will generally be
southerly to southwesterly 5-10 kt with stronger gusts (15-20
kt) on Monday.


SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...Latest obs show WNW-WSW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will remain centered over the waters
today, gradually sliding offshore tonight as low pressure
approaches from the west and coastal trough develops along the
NC coast. W/NW winds surge 10-15 kt early this morning will
diminish by mid morning with winds becoming more variable 10 kt
or less. Winds overnight remain a bit challenging and heavily
dependent on where trough sets up, likely varying from NE-SW
5-15 kt. Seas 1-3 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3:45 AM Thursday...Winds will be southerly to southwesterly
at 10-20 kt through Sunday. On Monday, SSW winds increase from
south to north through the day reaching 20- 25 kt with gusts
around 30 kt by Monday night. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday and
increase to 3 to 5 ft Sunday through Monday.




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