Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 290529
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
129 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tomorrow with limited
moisture and push through tomorrow night. High pressure returns
early next week. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC
coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 950 PM Sat...After a record shattering afternoon,
temperatures remain very warm across the area, ranging from the
upper 70s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. Quiet
weather expected overnight as deep southwesterly flow continues
between a large low pressure system over the lower Missouri
Valley, and high pressure off the SE coast. Breezy conditions
and periods of high clouds moving across the area will keep
conditions mild overnight, with lows only expected in the mid to
upper 60s.

Still a chance for some sea fog again tonight, but think
stronger winds should limit widespread formation...though
confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...The cold front is expected to be over the TN
Valley by morning, while the area is in a deep warm southern
flow. The main story for tomorrow will be how warm it will be;
with possible record-breaking temps. Temperatures are forecasted
to reach the low 90s inland with upper 70s to low 80s along the
coast.

Also, models continue to show the moisture associated with the
cold front to diminish as the cold front moves over the Appalachian
Mtns. resulting in no precip across ENC. Though the area will
be unstable as CAPE values will reach btw 1500-2000 J/kg and
shear increasing to AOA 45kt, the area can get an isolated
shower, but not enough to add a POP into the forecast at this
time. Overall, expect very warm weather with partly cloudy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 3 AM Sat...A cold front with limited moisture will move
through the region Sunday evening. Low pressure will lift
along/near the NC coast Tuesday night, pushing offshore
Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week.
Above normal temps will continue Sunday, then near climo Tue
through late week.

Sunday night through Monday...Slightly cooler conditions
expected Monday behind the front. As a result of little to no
CAA behind the front temperatures should once again climb into
the 80s for some spots, and mid to upper 70s everywhere.

Tuesday through Friday...Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected
on Tue over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across
the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough
moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to
track northeast along the NC coast Tue night into Wed then
continue to deepen Wed afternoon off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Widespread rainfall is expected late Tue afternoon into
Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
Tuesday night with PWATs approaching 1.5". Will continue likely
pops. Bulk of precip should be ending by Wed afternoon with
lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible
across the area through Wed night. Highs Tue and Wed will be in
the low to upper 60s and upper 50s to low 60s along the Outer
Banks. Drier wx with temps near climo expected Thu and Fri as
high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Monday/...
As of 130 AM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across all sites
early this morning with high confidence in VFR conditions
through the period. Abundant high clouds will continue to stream
overhead courtesy of maturing cyclone over the central CONUS,
but some lower clouds at 4-5 kft are possible around and after
sunset as weak front attempts to cross the area overnight. Main
concern is respectable southwest winds with tightening pressure
gradient. Afternoon gusts of 20-25 kt are likely especially for
the coastal plain.

There is a highly conditional threat of an isolated thunderstorm
mainly for PGV/ISO depending on whether upper ridge shifts far
enough east for some instability to be realized, but
probability of this is too low to mention in forecast this
cycle.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday
morning. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
the region Sunday evening. Developing low pressure will
approach the area from the southwest late Tue producing
widespread rain and occasional sub-VFR conditions. Best chance
for widespread sub-VFR conditions will be Tue night into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 700 PM...Winds will increase this evening as the gradient
tightens between the high pressure over the coastal waters and
the low pressure system over the Central Plains. Expect SW winds
to increase to 20-25 kts overnight. Seas will build 4-6 ft
south of Oregon Inlet with possible 7 ft over the central waters
late tonight. As the cold front approaches the area from the
west Sunday, SW winds will remain 15-25 knots tomorrow and
peaking 20-25 kt tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Seas will
remain elevated during this period. SCAs are in effect for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, and the Pamlico Sound, and
will go into effect tomorrow for the northern coastal waters.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...The cold front will cross the waters Sunday
night with winds becoming NW 15-20 kt. Seas Sunday will build
from 4-6 ft early to 5-8 ft in the afternoon and evening, then
subside to 3-5 ft early Mon. SCA conditions expected to continue
into Sunday night and early Monday morning. Will likely need to
reissue for the Pamlico Sound and maybe the northern waters. As
high pressure builds over the waters Mon, NW winds 10-20 kt
will become W 10-15 kt. Seas 3-5 ft Mon subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Confidence is low but could see a brief period of SCA conditions
develop Monday night into Tue, as sfc low strengthens to the
north and gradient tightens between low and approaching system.
N/NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5
ft. Tue ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE
winds 10-20 will veer to the E 10-15 kt. An area of low pressure
will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong northerly winds 20-30
kt will develop Wed and continue into Wed night. A brief period
of gale force winds will be possible Wed and/or Wed night
depending on exact track and strength of low. 6 ft+ seas could
develop across the waters Tue night peaking late Wed and Wed
night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temperatures possible Saturday 3/28

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         84/2007  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    77/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       88/1929  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    85/2012  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1907  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     86/2007  (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temperatures possible Sunday 3/29

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         88/1985  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/2012  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1985  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    84/2012  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          91/1910  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1985  (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/BM
CLIMATE...MHX


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