Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230803
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the region through tonight.
Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area
late Friday into early Saturday morning. High pressure then
builds in behind the front late Saturday through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...High pressure surface and aloft will
continue over the area through tonight, with the upper level
ridge axis shifting east allowing copious amounts of Cirrus
clouds to move over the area today. A weak coastal trough is
forecast to drift towards the Outer Banks today and along the
coast tonight producing isolated showers vicinity of the coast.
A slight moderation in temps is expected with highs in the low
to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Weakening surface high pressure
continues over the area tonight with the aforementioned coastal
trough and isolated shower threat remaining along the coast.
Increasing warm advection combined with increasing low level
moisture as the flow becomes onshore should lead to the
development of low clouds and areas of fog after midnight,
especially west of Highway 17. Lows will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s inland and mid 40s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM Thu...Warm temps to start the period before a
strong cold front moves through, bringing a return to seasonably
cool and dry weather second half of the weekend through mid
week next week.

Friday through Saturday...A cold front associated with stacked
low pressure lifting from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast
will approach the area Friday, crossing Saturday morning. Models
have trended a bit stronger with the prefrontal southerly LLJ
and WAA as there is now good agreement for a wave of low
pressure developing within the front to lift across central NC
toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will allow Pwat values to
climb to near 1.25 in overnight, around 2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year, and, given the dynamic
enhancement from the wave passing just to our west, 0.25-0.5 in
QPF is likely across the area centered late Friday night as the
cold front is quick moving. Could be some sct showers on Friday
as winds will veer serly with inc low lvl shallow moisture
through the day.

Low mid- level lapse rates will limit widespread instability,
though may be enough of a SSE component to advect some
instability off the Gulf Stream and bring a low end severe
threat to Downeast Carteret through the southern OBX late night
through early Sat morning. Main threat would be gusty winds,
though an iso tornado cannot be ruled out given slightly backed
low lvl flow leading to higher helicity vals here. Any
remaining precip early Sat morning quickly exit the OBX zones
by mid morning, with a return to sunshine for the entire area.
It will continue to be warm as hts/thicknesses remain above
climo, and most places rise into the 60s once again.

Sunday through Wednesday...Deep layer subsidence will keep a
dry forecast in place late in the weekend into early next week.
High pressure building in from the southwest will generally be
mild with quasi zonal flow in place, and near normal temps are
expected with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Next wave of low pres may arrive by Wed evening but esp Thu or
beyond though timing issues abound amongst 23/00Z global model
suite, as well as their respective ensemble members, so pops are
low this period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Thinking that VFR conditions should
prevail through this evening as high pressure builds over the
area. Weak warm air advection and low level moisture advection
due to developing onshore flow will increase chances for sub VFR
conditions especially after midnight Thursday night. Some of the
guidance is indicating a potential for MVFR ceilings this
morning from 9-15Z but think subsidence and depth of dry air
will limit this potential this morning.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 303 AM Thu...Mainly VFR on Friday before sub- VFR, and
likely IFR, ceilings arrive Friday night as a wave of low
pressure passes just inland and its associated cold front race
through. Return to VFR and mo sunny skies on Saturday behind the
cold front, with VFR likely lasting through early next week with
high pres dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Although winds will be gradually
diminishing through tonight as high pressure builds over the
waters, seas will remain elevated AOA 6 ft so will continue the
SCA`s for the coastal waters. N/NE winds currently 15-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt are forecast to diminish and veer to to NE/E at
10-20 kt this afternoon and E/SE 10-15 kt tonight. 5-8 ft seas
this morning will subside to 4-6 ft late today and tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 303 AM Thu...E to NE flow continues first part of Fri,
but then coastal troughing washes out as winds veer around to SE
Fri evening, then increase and become strong srly 20-30 kt Fri
night through early Sat morning ahead of strong cold front.

Hazardous seas (4-7 ft) continue through Friday, before seas
increase further with the arrival a southerly windswell Friday
night, peaking at 6-11 ft around sunrise Saturday. Seas then
gradually subside through early Monday morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 303 AM Thursday...Low pressure moving from off the
Southeast coast toward the central Atlantic could result in
elevated tide levels on the ocean and near the inlets into the
weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RTE/TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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