Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 151132
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will impact the region through tonight,
with lingering showers lasting through Sunday. High pressure
will gradually build in from the west early through mid next
week. Another storm system may impact the area as early as
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...As the cutoff upper low moves slowly
into eastern TN today, very moist air characterized by PW vales
AOA 1.75" (which is a climatological max for this time of year)
will continue across eastern NC. The rich moisture will combine
with strong ascent due to upper level divergence to produce
another round of widespread showers/possible thunderstorms this
morning and afternoon. The heaviest rains Fri/Fri night occured
mainly south of Highway 70 where 1 to 2 inches was common.
Further north rainfall was mainly an inch or less. The wettest
models are indicating the potential for an additional 1-2 inches
across the area today, bringing Storm Total Precipitation to
2-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Therefore will
continue the Flash Flood Watch into this afternoon. A lull in
the precipitation coverage intensity last night has temporarily
eased flood concerns but the models are forecasting
precipitation intensity to increase after 12Z which would
coincide with an area of low pressure developing along a warm
front located across the northern portion of the area early this
morning. The precipitation should begin to taper off inland
18-20Z.

The SPC continues to forecast a "Marginal" severe weather risk
for a small portion of eastern NC today, mainly along the
immediate coast where the high resolution CAM models are
indicating marginal CAPE values AOB 500 J/kg but with strong
shear and veering wind profiles supporting a marginal risk for a
damaging wind gust/isolated tornado this morning (12-16Z). The
best wind fields are forecast to shift offshore this afternoon
ending the low end risk for severe weather.

High temperatures will be tricky inland as the models are
suggesting that the wedge airmass over central NC moving
southeast into the coastal plain which would cause temps to drop
during peak diurnal heating. Elsewhere temps are already in the
mid to upper 60s and could approach 70 before the widespread
precipitation arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...The most widespread showers should be
exiting the coast early in the evening with only low chances
for for additional showers overnight. Low level moisture will
tend to linger setting the stage for possible widespread fog
formation late as winds become light. Low temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 40s inland and low 50s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...The upper low will track just north of
the area Sunday. High pressure builds in from early to the
middle of next week. Another storm system is expected to
approach the area Thursday into Friday.

Sunday and Sunday night...The upper cut-off low will track from
the northern Piedmont to just north of the area Sunday with
additional cyclogenesis occurring just off the mid-Atlantic
coast ahead of the trough. Low pressure will become vertically
stacked and move well away from the area Sunday night. PW values
drop to around 0.5-0.7" Sunday and expect mainly dry conditions
with subsident flow over the region, however could see isolated
showers across northern areas closer to the track of the upper
low where mid-level lapse rates will be steepest. Temps cool
Sunday but still above climo with downsloping flow with highs in
the upr 50s to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.

Monday through Wednesday...A strong northern stream jet digging
into the Great Lakes and Northeast will allow the upper low to
quickly lift NE away from the area early next week. A dry
backdoor front pushes across the area Monday night with surface
high pressure building into the region from the west through
mid week. Mid-level WNW downslope flow continues Monday with
highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Northerly winds bring the
coolest day of the week is Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. High pressure begins to slide offshore Wednesday
with return flow beginning to moderate the airmass and expect
highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows will drop back into the 30s
Monday night. Excellent radiational cooling conditions expected
Tuesday night with high pressure overhead and expect upper 20s
inland to mid 30s coast.

Thursday through Friday...The next storm system is progged to
approach the area for the latter half of next week. 15/00Z
global model suite coming into better agreement with northern
stream energy digging across the Northern Plains into the
Midwest phasing with a mid-level trough/low pressure over the
Southern Plains to develop a longwave trough across the eastern
CONUS. This setup will bring a strong Gulf moisture feed into
the area potentially bringing another round of heavy rainfall
across the area this period. There remains some spread in the
15/00Z global model suite and will continue to limit PoPs to
high chance at this time. Temps will likely be several degrees
above normal ahead of this system with highs climbing back into
the 60s with mild overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions
continue across the terminals early this morning, with moderate
to heavy rain expected to move across the area this morning
into early this afternoon. The precipitation should be east of
the TAF sites after 18Z with ceilings remaining in the MVFR
range into the evening. Overnight, light winds and high low
level moisture values could lead to the development of
widespread fog and prevailing IFR conditions after midnight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. An upper low will track just north of the area which
could bring isolated showers across mainly northern areas Sunday
but otherwise dry conditions expected. A dry cold front pushes
across the area Monday night with high pressure building across
the region through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short term /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...The SCA`s will continue through tonight
for the near shore waters. The flow today will be S 15-25 kt
becoming SW and diminishing to 10-15 kt tonight. 7-10 ft seas
early this morning will remain elevated through the weekend but
subside to 4-7 ft late tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...SW winds around 10-20 kt Sunday will
slowly veer to W Sunday afternoon, then NW Sunday night.
Winds back to west around 10-15 kt Monday ahead of a dry
backdoor cold front, then become NW around 15-25 kt Monday night
after the frontal passage, then winds gradually diminish
through the day Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the NW.
Light and variable winds expected Wednesday as high pressure
slowly migrates across the area. Seas gradually subside to 3-6
ft by late Sunday and 3-5 ft Monday and expect SCA for end for
the coastal waters late Sunday night into mid-morning Monday.
This will be short-lived with seas building back to 4-6 ft
across the northern/central waters Monday night and Tuesday with
the secondary surge.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Flash Flood Watch will continue for all
of Eastern NC into this afternoon. Additional heavy rainfall
with additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible will bring
storm total precipitation amounts to 2-3 inches by this evening.
The highest rainfall totals are expected along the coast where
some isolated storm total amounts of 4 + inches will be
possible. Any additional heavy rains combined with the very
saturated ground, could produce flooding of poor drainage areas,
and the potential for localized flash flooding. Local streams
and rivers are already running near or above flood stage, and
the expected rainfall will lead to additional river flooding
across Eastern NC.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ044-079-
     090>095-098.
     Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX


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