


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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209 FXUS62 KMHX 142018 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 418 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 PM Wednesday... Trough axis associated with a shortwave is swinging through the region this evening. Shear associated with the approaching trough axis will bring linear convection (with embedded supercells possible) that moves eastward. SPC has included the area in another Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for inland locales. A surface trough following the upper trough could prolong showers overnight, despite weak subsidence aloft. At this point, the severe threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%, especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the OBX. As shortwave moves through, there may be some isolated to scattered showers and tstorms that sweep through the region early this morning. No severe weather is expected in the early morning hours with this second round of convection. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 4 PM Wednesday... Coverage of storms on Thursday afternoon should be less than previous days. Westerly flow and an approaching surface trough will interact with the Piedmont trough and a pinned sea breeze to produce isolated to widely scattered storms. Weak subsidence aloft creates some question of confidence in this regime producing precip. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Ridging will continue on Friday with very warm temperatures arriving with a punch. Expect much of the area to battle with the lower 90s and summer-like humidity. The ridge continues to show signs of holding drier weather for Friday with PoPs retreating northward away from the ridge`s periphery. Hot again on Saturday as we likely see some of the warmest temperatures of the year. Downslope flow will push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices should easily eclipse 100 degrees. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area. Temperatures fall a few degrees following the cold front on Sunday with highs only around 90. Laughable relief from the heat yields very little in the way of forecast changes for Sunday. A few isolated afternoon storms will be possible. Another cold front approaches late Sunday into Monday with drier weather likely through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18Z Thursday/... As of 4 PM Wednesday...VFR through the CWA this afternoon, although a line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west will bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and sub-VFR conditions. There is also potential for hail and wind gusts of 60 mph with these storms. The best chance for severe weather is for inland locales, with PGV and ISO first up around 22-00Z. EWN and OAJ follow suit around 23-01Z. Behind the line, some low stratus could linger tonight. Lack of confidence kept me from going anything above sct low stratus deck. There could also be some showers lingering in the morning as a shortwave moves through. Tomorrow afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again, although no severe weather is expected. LONG TERM /Wednesday evening through Sunday/... As of 700 AM Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible overnight tonight due to evening showers and stratus or fog into Thursday morning. Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon). && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 4 PM Wednesday...Winds out of the south/southwest ahead of a trough this afternoon, 10-20kts. A line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the region this evening. This could bring hazardous marine conditions to inland sounds and rivers. As storms approach coastal waters tonight, they are expected to weaken, but some SMWs may be needed depending on how much warmer waters reinvigorate the storms. Seas 3-5 ft this afternoon become 3-4 ft tomorrow and winds become southwesterly 10-20 knots again. LONG TERM /Thursday night through monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday... Pleasant boating conditions for the end of the work week. Saturday afternoon winds pick up again out of the southwest, but are short lived as Sunday lighter winds return. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th through Wednesday May 14th. New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz. Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz. Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz. Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz. Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted by the upgrade. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...MHX AVIATION...RJ/MHX MARINE...RJ/MHX EQUIPMENT...MHX