209
FXUS62 KMHX 142018
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC
418 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through
the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a
ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday... Trough axis associated with a shortwave
is swinging through the region this evening. Shear associated
with the approaching trough axis will bring linear convection
(with embedded supercells possible) that moves eastward. SPC
has included the area in another Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5).
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for
inland locales.

A surface trough following the upper trough could prolong showers
overnight, despite weak subsidence aloft. At this point, the severe
threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%,
especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with
surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the low to mid
60s, upper 60s for the OBX. As shortwave moves through, there
may be some isolated to scattered showers and tstorms that sweep
through the region early this morning. No severe weather is
expected in the early morning hours with this second round of
convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday... Coverage of storms on Thursday
afternoon should be less than previous days. Westerly flow and
an approaching surface trough will interact with the Piedmont
trough and a pinned sea breeze to produce isolated to widely
scattered storms. Weak subsidence aloft creates some question of
confidence in this regime producing precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Ridging will continue on Friday with
very warm temperatures arriving with a punch. Expect much of the
area to battle with the lower 90s and summer-like humidity. The
ridge continues to show signs of holding drier weather for
Friday with PoPs retreating northward away from the ridge`s
periphery.

Hot again on Saturday as we likely see some of the warmest
temperatures of the year. Downslope flow will push highs into
the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s.
Heat indices should easily eclipse 100 degrees. Westerly flow
intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during
the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the
evening as a cold front approaches the area.

Temperatures fall a few degrees following the cold front on Sunday
with highs only around 90. Laughable relief from the heat yields
very little in the way of forecast changes for Sunday. A few
isolated afternoon storms will be possible. Another cold front
approaches late Sunday into Monday with drier weather likely through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...VFR through the CWA this afternoon,
although a line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms
moving in from the west will bring heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and sub-VFR conditions. There is also potential for
hail and wind gusts of 60 mph with these storms. The best chance
for severe weather is for inland locales, with PGV and ISO
first up around 22-00Z. EWN and OAJ follow suit around 23-01Z.
Behind the line, some low stratus could linger tonight. Lack of
confidence kept me from going anything above sct low stratus
deck. There could also be some showers lingering in the morning
as a shortwave moves through. Tomorrow afternoon, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible again, although no severe
weather is expected.

LONG TERM /Wednesday evening through Sunday/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible overnight
tonight due to evening showers and stratus or fog into Thursday
morning. Shower chances decrease late this week and into the
weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible
each day (primarily during the afternoon).

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...Winds out of the south/southwest ahead
of a trough this afternoon, 10-20kts. A line of strong to severe
showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the region
this evening. This could bring hazardous marine conditions to
inland sounds and rivers. As storms approach coastal waters
tonight, they are expected to weaken, but some SMWs may be
needed depending on how much warmer waters reinvigorate the
storms. Seas 3-5 ft this afternoon become 3-4 ft tomorrow and
winds become southwesterly 10-20 knots again.


LONG TERM /Thursday night through monday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Pleasant boating conditions for the end
of the work week. Saturday afternoon winds pick up again out of
the southwest, but are short lived as Sunday lighter winds
return.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following
transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th
through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information
during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted
by the upgrade.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...RJ/MHX
MARINE...RJ/MHX
EQUIPMENT...MHX