Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 022100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing off the Southeast coast tonight will
pass south of the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back
in to round out the work week. Another offshore low could affect
the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 PM Tue...High clouds linger this evening, inhibiting
radiational cooling despite relative light winds. Then,
overnight, low pressure developing off the Southeast coast will
push a lower to mid level warm front toward the area. This warm
front will likely reach coastal areas south of New Bern by
sunrise, bringing increased cloud cover, warming temps, and the
change for light rain. However, much of the area will remain
north of this front, with the very dry low level airmass
currently in place lingering. If skies are able to clear for a
couple of hours then temps could cool quickly, and have dropped
lows a couple of degrees mainly across the inner coastal plain
north of Kinston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Low pressure will pass well offshore
south of the area through day Wednesday. There will be a sharp
gradient in low to mid level moisture across the day with this
passing feature, and the primary adjustments to the forecast
were to try to reflect this gradient. Rainfall is likely along
the coast south of the New Bern, with QPF generally around one
quarter of an inch or less. North of New Bern, low level
moisture will be very limited, with little to no QPF, and more
limited cloud cover. Highs are most reflective of expected sky
cover, in the upper 58s along the US HWY 64/264 corridor, but
mainly lower to mid 50s Crystal Coast/Jacksonville/New Bern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...The overall pattern for the next 7 days
is looking cool and mostly dry. The models appear to be
arriving on a consensus regarding developing low pressure off
the southeast coast this weekend. The trend is to keep the low
suppressed south and further offshore with only small chances
for light rain along the immediate coast.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build over the area
with dry weather expected and a reinforcement of the cold temps
Fri. Temps will be slightly below climo due Thu around 60,
dropping much below normal on Fri with highs in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday...Low pressure will be developing off the
southeast coast this weekend. The track of this system will be
critical to how much wind/precipitation impact`s there will be
across Eastern NC. The trend is to keep the low suppressed
south and further offshore with only small chances for light
rain along the immediate coast and keeping the strongest winds
well offshore. Temps will be below normal with highs in the 50s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure is expected to build south
over the area early next week producing dry/cool weather.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1245 PM Tue...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the period. High pressure continues to build over the Carolinas
this afternoon keeping low level subsidence and mainly clear
conditions in place. Exception is a healthy band of mid and high
level clouds streaming off of developing low pressure over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to deepen and lift
off the SE coast overnight. Guidance continues to track this
feature further south, lowering the odds of sub-VFR impacts.
EWN/OAJ the most likely candidates for periods of MVFR cigs,
although probability based on current data is AOB 30%.

NE winds this afternoon become light and variable tonight,
backing to the north at 5-10 kt as low passes to our south.
Despite light winds, persistent high clouds should prevent any
fog formation.

Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...A low pres area moves off the coast Wed
with good rain chances and sub VFR possible. High pressure
builds in Thu through Sat inland with dry weather and VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 1145 PM Mon...Weak high pressure builds in from the north
as low pressure develops off the Southeast coast tonight,
passing offshore south of the waters Wednesday. Moderate NE to E
winds prevail overnight, with mainly 3 to 5 ft seas, though some
6 ft seas remain possible 10-20 nm off Hatteras Island through
early evening (SCA in effect through 9 PM).

The gradient tightens mainly south of Cape Hatteras Wednesday as
the low moves eastward from the NC/SC state line. NE winds 15-20
kt with gusts to 25-30 confined to these coastal waters late
morning through the afternoon, with NE winds 10-20 prevailing
elsewhere. Accordingly, seas increase, to 5-7 ft mainly south
of Ocracoke Inlet Wednesday, lingering into Wednesday night,
with an SCA now in effect for these coastal waters. Elsewhere, 3
to 5 ft seas prevail Wednesday.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...Seas gradually subside and moderate NW
winds develop Wednesday night as low pressure pulls further
away from the coast. For the remainder of the forecast Thu
through Sun, high pressure will build over the waters with
northerly flow 10-20 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/CB



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