384
FXUS62 KMHX 090518
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1218 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Weakened winds through rest of evening and into tonight.

Cancelled all remaining inland SCAs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hazardous cold continues tonight which has prompted the
issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of ENC.

2) Tracking the potential for light snow on Friday for portions
of Eastern NC.

MARINE...SCA conditions continue, with conditions improving into
early-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic airmass has finally arrived into ENC,
with the coldest and windiest conditions felt over NE NC and
the OBX. Cold conditions will continue this evening into MON
morning with MinTs in the mid to upper teens for most, low 20s
for Sern zones and OBX. Though winds will be weaker than
previous days/nights, winds chills will still fall into ColdWx
Advisory criteria for portions of the FA. Wind chills will be
coldest (6-10 degrees) over NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.
NEern mainland zones will see Min Wind Chill temps around
10-14deg in the early morning hours. Cold Weather Advisory has
been issued including the Outer Banks from Duck south through
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and mainland Dare and Hyde Cos,
Tyrrell and Washington Cos. The rest of Mainland ENC will be in
the 15-20deg AppT range.

Lows will approach, but are currently forecast to remain above
records tonight, see the CLIMATE section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak storm system is poised to move into the
Southeast from the southern Plains on Friday and has the
potential to bring light snow to portions of ENC as cold air
surges back into the region early Friday morning. Much
uncertainty remains with this system as some forecast models
still keep the area dry on Friday, but there is growing support
amongst operational guidance and ensembles for some light snow.
Surface temperatures will be critical as to whether or not we
see snow accumulations or snow melting as it hits the ground.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning with mostly
clear skies through tonight, and then increasing mid level
clouds early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions will likely continue through Thursday
with high pressure over the area. A weak cold front moving
through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of
MVFR. Better chances at sub-VFR conditions will come late this
week as a low pressure system brings a mix of rain and snow to
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to fall off through the day with gusts to 20-25kt
inside, 25-30 kts outside, with improving conditions expected
through the near term period. Winds will become NNW 20-25 kts
this evening for Nern areas, 15-20kt for the S, and then weaken
substantially tonight. Winds will be NNW 10-15 kts tomorrow,
but Small Craft seas (=< 6 ft) will persist until at least
early tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure slides offshore from N to S late MON into
TUE, turning light winds more SWerly. Winds will then increase
out of the SW Tuesday night ahead of a cold front to near Small
Craft criteria for portions of the coastal waters. A cold front
will move through the waters Wednesday with winds turning to the
NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft
conditions possible. A low pressure system is poised to work
from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this
weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         12/1970  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    15/1970  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       12/1934  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    10/1970  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          16/1995  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     18/1995  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ045>047-081-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...CEB