837
FXUS62 KMHX 140621
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
121 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered minimum temperatures for tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system will bring widespread beneficial rain
Sunday through early Monday morning.

2) Well above normal temperatures are expected for inland areas next
week.

MARINE...Monitoring the potential for hazardous marine conditions
late Sunday through Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track E across the
Gulf states on Sunday and ENE and off the coast of the Carolinas
Sunday night/Monday. Most models continue with a low track just
south of ENC, keeping the region in the cool sector, and thus
limited thunder chances. Thunder chances have been kept along
the immediate coast as some elevated instability may be advected
in off the Gulf Stream, but all of ENC is expected to see
stratiform rain Sunday through early Monday. Given the large-
scale forcing with decent vorticity advection and above climo
PW`s, a general 1-1.5" inches of rain is expected for most of
ENC with locally higher amounts possible. The best chances for
seeing closer to 2" will be along the OBX. This will be a
beneficial rain for ENC with severe drought conditions across
the coastal plain and abnormally dry conditions along the coast.

Of note, a risk of sea fog may develop within the moistening return
flow ahead of Sunday`s system, though the window for that is short,
as while TD`s are moistening through the 30s on light southwesterly
winds late Sat night/early Sun morning, wind direction will be
veering around to the northeast through later Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Swrly low-mid level flow beneath anomalous ridging
aloft should support an increased chance of above normal
temperatures for much of next week. For reference, normal highs this
time of year are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with normal lows in
the 30s. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook
now shows a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures, along with a
good chance of below normal rainfall, which may lead to some fire
weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with increasing
mid and high clouds this afternoon and evening. Cool high
pressure is cresting over terminals tonight and will favor
excellent radiational cooling with clear skies and calm winds.
Model soundings suggest boundary layer will be too dry to
support fog, but cannot completely rule out shallow ditch fog in
the coolest areas through 12z.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as
low pressure passes south of the area, bringing widespread rain,
low CIGs, and reduced VIS. Sub-VFR may linger into Monday night,
with VFR returning Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions will persist today. As the high shifts
offshore, winds will back to the SW at 5-10 kt and seas will subside
to 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Monday: A low moving near the coast of the Carolinas
late this weekend will bring hazardous marine conditions starting
Sunday evening. Strong winds over the Gulf Stream may generate Gale
force gusts both with strong southerly flow ahead of the low Sunday
night, then strong northerly flow behind the departing low on
Monday. Seas south of Cape Hatteras are expected to peak at 6-9 ft
early Monday. Seas to the north will also peak at 6-9 ft but later
Monday afternoon/evening with the strong surge of northerly winds
behind the departing low. Some thunderstorms may accompany areas of
heavy rain over the Gulf waters south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday
night.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds and seas relax as low pressure
pulls away with winds backing from northerly to southwesterly
through the day on Tuesday. Southwest flow will ramp up on Wednesday
and potentially bring our next round of SCA conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/OJC
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...OJC