Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 222254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
654 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A slow moving low pressure system will affect the area Monday
through Tuesday. Another low pressure system is expected to move
through the region late next week.


As of 7 pm Sun...Current zones in good shape. No changes
needed. High pressure will slide off the coast through this
evening, as surface and upper low slowly approach from the west.
Mid and upr WAA increase across the region, as evidenced
already by the thickening cirro stratus from the west. Not as
cool due to the cloud cover and light easterly flow with low
ranging from upr 40s interior to low/mid 50s coast.

For Monday, overcast skies expected with a continued lowering of
cloud bases. UVV continues with advancement of low pressure and
vorticity advection aloft. May be some echoes on radar as early
as 12Z, but nose of dry air centered around 800MB will be
stubborn to erode, so not much if any shower activity before
noon. Dry air gives way to continued moistening column, and
should see decent area of showers move in after 18Z across wrn
zones, with likely showers west and iso/sct showers east by
mid/late afternoon. High temps will struggle towards the 70
degree mark due to the ovc skies and precip breaking out.


As of 345 PM Sun...This period will be quite unsettled, as slow
moving low pres area passes just west of the FA. Continued
moistening of the column and steadily increasing fgen will mean
an increasing pop trend through the night, becoming categorical
all areas after around midnight. Little if any instability
present most of the night, though may see some elevated CAPES
advecting in to the sw zones by 12Z, so included iso thunder
mention here.

For Tuesday, heaviest of the rain and gustiest winds expected as
southeasterly pres gradient is maximized. Will potentially see a
period of wind adv criteria for Carteret county through the OBX
zones, where winds will gust to 45 mph or higher. This will also
bring a myriad of coastal concerns (see coastal flood section
below). Moisture convergence is maximized Tue, where widespread
rainfall amounts will total 1 to 2 inches, with localized
higher amounts. Will have to monitor for localized flooding, esp
if convective elements are involved, which is possible given
sfc based CAPE rising aoa 1000 J/KG by afternoon. Best
shear/forcing will be shunted north and east however, so it is
questionable on coverage of storms on Tuesday. Later shifts will
have to monitor severe threat, which would be more likely if
the slower 23/12Z ECMWF and NAM verify. GFS and CMC are faster
with the system and keep thunder threat quite low.


As of 345 AM Sun... Surface high pressure will be off the Mid-
Atlantic, influencing the weather across North carolina, while
a low pressure system lifts towards the Carolinas from the Gulf
States through midweek. A though pattern will continue through
the weekend leading to additional showers.

Tuesday night through the weekend...Rain will become more
scattered and taper off as the sfc low lifts NE and drier air
filters in. Most places will have a break from rain Wednesday
night until the other aforementioned shortwave trough and it`s
associated weak cold front approaches the area with rain
redeveloping again Thursday. Then another cold front will
approach the area Friday and push through Saturday with more
rain showers. Expect highs in the 70s inland and 60s along the
Outer Banks during the forecast period.


Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 7 pm Sun...VFR conditions through the TAF period though
clouds will be thickening and lowering late tonight through Mon
afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching low
pressure center. Not out of the question that scattered MVFR
ceilings develop late tonight and early Mon as the flow becomes
SE but a much stronger signal for sub VFR conditions is
indicated after 18Z (2 PM) Mon as rain begins to advance into
the area ahead of the low.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 100 PM Sun...MVFR to IFR conditions Mon night and Tue as
a low pressure system tracks across the Carolinas producing
widespread rain and gusty winds. Conditions will improve to
mostly VFR Wednesday through Friday, but the threat of isolated
to scattered showers will continue each day with a possibility
of brief sub-VFR conditions.


Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 7 pm Sun...Marine zones in good shape. No changes
planned. Latest obs indicate NE winds 10-15 kt across the marine
domain. High pressure will continue to move offshore tonight
ahead of approaching low pressure system to the west. Pres
gradient will slowly incrs as a result, with NE winds becoming
east by sunrise and inc to 15-20 kt. The gradient continues to
strengthen Monday with 15-25 kt by afternoon with winds slowly
veering SE. Seas respond by building 6+ ft by afternoon. Issued
Gale warnings for waters south of Oregon Inlet as further
strenthening of winds expected Mon night, and Gale watch for
Pamlico sound as winds will likely reach gales by Tuesday.

Long Term /Wednesday through Friday/...
As of 630 AM Sun...As the low lifts NE, winds will become SW
10-15 knots Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to push
through Thursday, resulting in winds becoming NW 5-15 knots.
Seas will build 5-7 ft throughout Monday, and continue to build
as the sfc low approaches the area, expect seas to reach as high
10-15 ft Tuesday. Seas will gradually start to subside Tuesday
night with seas becoming 5-8 ft Wednesday and then around 5 ft


As of 345 PM Sun...A low pressure system will impact the region
Monday night through Tuesday. Strong SE winds will develop,
resulting in many coastal impacts across Eastern NC. Minor
coastal flooding will be possible as early as late Monday night
but especially Tuesday, for areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound
and rivers, as strong southeast winds develop. Minor coastal
flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be possible late Monday
night through Tuesday night for areas along the immediate
coast. Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and a high rip
current risk are expected along the beaches.


MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.