454
FXUS64 KMOB 262041
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
341 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The forecast area remains in a broad southwest flow aloft between
a trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to the southeast.
Disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will continue to move
through with precipitable water values between 2-2.2 inches.
Showers and storms will gradually end this evening with a few
showers lingering near the coast tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday with the highest coverage
during the late morning and afternoon . A few of the stronger
storms have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the
40 mph. However, the main threat will remain heavy rain and the
potential of localized flooding issues due to the slow movement of
the thunderstorms.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with highs in the upper
80s and low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105
degrees. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

An upper low embedded in a mean upper trough over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley/eastern Southern Plains gets drawn north,
then east by a developing upper low over the New England coast.
Upper level high pressure over the Southeast shifts southwest, as a
mean upper trough develops over the eastern Conus as the upper lows
merge. A weak surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast
shifts south to over the Gulf by Tuesday. A moist airmass remains in
place (precipitable h20 values around 2", above seasonal norms) due
to the weak nature of the mean flow in the boundary layer, along
with a daily seabreeze off the Gulf moving inland each afternoon.
With the high moisture levels, scattered to numerous rain showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop over land each day,
lasting into the evening. From there, convection is expected to fire
south of the coast as the bit of cooling over area waters
destabilizes the boundary layer. As is normal this time of the year,
a few strong to marginally severe storms are always possible,
especially if a pocket of better instability is tapped into. Also,
with the moist airmass, the thunderstorms will be efficient rainers,
with locally heavy rains from slow moving storms creating ponding in
poor drainage areas.

With the decrease in upper subsidence, high temperatures see a
downturn. High temperatures in the 89 to 93 degree range Sunday drop
into the 88 to 92 degree range Monday, with the cooler areas along
the coast and northeastern quarter of the forecast area. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s well inland, upper 70s to near 80
are expected along the coast Saturday through Monday nights. With
the moist airmass in place, Heat Indices topping out in the 100-108
degree range are possible Sunday and Monday. Will need to monitor
for a Heat Advisory.

The weak nature of the surface ridge over the Gulf will help to keep
swell hitting areas beaches weak. A Low Risk of rip currents is
expected into the middle of the coming week is expected.
/16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The upper trough over the eastern Conus deepens into mid week, but
then begins to shift west as the upper ridge that has become
centered over the builds east over the Southeast. Temperatures rise
back to above seasonal norms, especially over areas along and west
of the Tombigbee River, with this area closer to the advancing
upper ridge. Moistures remain high, through the Extended. Highest
PoPs remain over southeastern portions of the forecast area, with a
daily seabreeze off the Gulf helping to start things firing along
with less upper subsidence to suppress convection. Heat Indices rise
to above seasonal norms in the Extended, with a Heat Advisory likely
to be issued.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  75  92  75  91  75  92 /  40  70  20  80  40  70  30  70
Pensacola   77  89  77  90  77  90  77  90 /  30  70  30  80  40  70  40  70
Destin      79  90  79  91  79  89  79  89 /  30  60  40  90  40  70  50  70
Evergreen   73  91  72  92  73  90  73  91 /  30  70  20  90  40  70  20  70
Waynesboro  71  90  72  93  73  92  73  93 /  50  70  20  80  20  70  20  60
Camden      73  90  72  92  73  89  72  90 /  10  70  30  90  30  70  20  70
Crestview   73  93  73  92  73  91  73  92 /  30  70  20  90  40  70  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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