Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 312259
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
559 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected overnight with light winds.
A cold front makes passage on Sunday and brings a reinforcement
of northerly winds in its wake. Breezy conditions set up in the
afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts possible. Any associated
frontal cloud bases are expected to be a high altitudes. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Zonal flow aloft persists
over the region tonight through Sunday as an upper level ridge
quickly translates east across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level
trough pivots across the region Sunday morning, with an attendant
dry surface cold front Sunday afternoon into evening.

After being tricked a few days ago with Hurricane Zeta, we have been
treated to cool, crisp Fall weather this Halloween. Pristine weather
conditions prevail with only a few clouds developing this evening.
Thankfully no spooky, scary clouds for are expected tonight into
Sunday. Temperatures rebounded better than expected, reaching the
lower to middle 70`s for most locations this afternoon, with upper
60`s over our far northern and northwestern counties. For our trick-
or-treaters this evening, anticipate temperatures to begin dropping
off quickly near sunset with generally lower to middle 60`s inland
and middle to upper 60`s along the coast. By the midnight witching
hour we will be chilly in the lower to middle 50`s for most
locations, and near 60 along the coast. Sunday morning will feature
chilly temperatures in the upper 40`s and lower 50`s across our
northern and western counties, with middle 50`s to upper 50`s across
coastal areas. Cloud cover will be on the increase Sunday morning
and afternoon with the approach of a dry cold front that should push
through by mid to late afternoon. Behind this, clear skies prevail
and high temps will only make it to the lower 70`s for most
locations, with middle 70`s possible across the coast and our
southeastern CWA. There doesn`t appear to be any more skeletons in
the closet as the fog potential mentioned earlier appears to have
waned on forecast models with a larger dewpoint depression (spread
between temperature and dewpoint) being modeled. Will continue to
preclude fog from the forecast at this time. MM/25

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...The mid/upper
level troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS early Sunday
night drifts east out over the Atlantic by late Sunday night and
Monday morning. This will push the surface front well to our south
with cool, dry surface high pressure building southeast toward our
area through early Monday and then settling over our area Monday
night through Tuesday. Significantly drier and cooler air filters
into the region on the backside of the front. Skies will remain
mostly clear and no rain is expected through the short term
period. Winds will remain gusty on Sunday night, but should
slowly relax through the day on Monday (except right along the
coast) as the high begins to settle into the region.

Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s on Sunday
night across inland communities with upper 40s at the beaches.
These temperatures combined with gusty winds will result in the
wind chill briefly dipping into the mid to low 30s for a few hours
early Monday morning, generally along and west of the I-65
corridor. It will remain chilly on Monday as highs struggle to
rise into the 60s north of the Highway 84 corridor with mid to low
60s across the southern half of the area. The coldest temperatures
of the week are expected Monday night into early Tuesday.
Temperatures will plummet into the mid to upper 30s across inland
counties with low to mid 40s across the coastal counties.
Maintained the brief period of patchy frost for parts of Wayne,
Choctaw, Clarke, Wilcox, and Washington Counties in the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday as winds relax with clear skies and temperatures
in the mid to upper 30s. This potential for the first frost of the
season will need to be monitored over the coming days. A gradual
warming trend ensues Tuesday and Tuesday night as the surface
high pressure begins to slide east of the area. Highs Tuesday in
the mid 60s inland to the lower 70 coastal, lows Tuesday night
ranging from the low to mid 40s over all interior areas and in the
50s along the coast. /12

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Continued dry
through the extended period. With upper ridging Wednesday and
Thursday, giving way to a upper trof or upper low developing over
LA Wednesday through Saturday. Despite this shortwave through to
our west and a gradual improvement in deep layer moisture, this
does not look to be sufficient to support consideration of PoPs
and we will maintain a dry forecast through Saturday. The warming
trend continues, with highs mostly in the 70s. Lows modify from
the mid and upper 40s inland to the mid 50s coastal on Wednesday
night to the low to mid 50s inland and lower 60s coastal by
Friday night. /12

MARINE...Light easterly flow persists this afternoon and
evening, becoming light northeasterly flow tonight. A cold front
passes through tomorrow, with moderate to strong northerly to north-
northwesterly flow expected by Sunday evening persisting through the
day Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday
evening into Monday evening. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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