Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182319
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail with relaxing winds out of the north.
Winds will become light out of the west during the afternoon
tomorrow. BB/03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as
an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western
Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the
surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region,
moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the
deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and
drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear
skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead,
efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low
30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer
to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all
inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and
Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region,
however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall
confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew
points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage
of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top
out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will
be in place through the period. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
While a broad upper trof over the interior eastern states
gradually moves off into the western Atlantic, a well defined
shortwave trof near the 4 Corners region advances across the south
central states to near the lower Mississippi River valley by late
Thursday night. A dome of cool and dry surface high pressure will
be over the area Tuesday night then shifts off to the east, with
a surface low expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on
Thursday then move to the east central Gulf Thursday night. Very
dry deep layer air over the area steadily improves through
Thursday, and as the surface low passes south of the area will
have chance pops for the forecast area Thursday night. Lows
Tuesday night range from the mid 30s inland to the lower 40s at
the coast, and with light winds and clear skies, frost development
is likely over interior areas. Highs on Wednesday will be around
70, then lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 40s inland
to the upper 40s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, then lows Thursday night range from the
upper 40s inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip
currents is expected Tuesday night through Thursday night. /29
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A shortwave trof near the lower Mississippi River lifts off into
the northeast states Friday night and becomes absorbed into a
larger scale upper trof. A surface low over the east central Gulf
early Friday morning lifts up along the East Coast Friday night
into Saturday, and in the process this pattern ushers much drier
air into the forecast area. Will have slight chance to chance pops
Friday morning over the forecast area which trends to dry
conditions areawide by early Friday evening. Dry conditions then
follow for the area through Sunday night. A return flow is
established over the area on Sunday and ushers much improved
moisture into the area through Monday as the next weather system
advances into the central states. Will have slight chance to
chance pops return to the forecast for much of the area on Monday.
/29
MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A strong northerly flow continues through Tuesday morning. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones
through Tuesday morning. Winds quickly subside throughout the day
on Tuesday, with light and variable winds expected during the
middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the
east, returns for late week before turning back to northerly by
the weekend. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 33 61 40 70 47 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20
Pensacola 39 60 43 68 49 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30
Destin 42 60 47 67 52 70 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30
Evergreen 32 61 34 72 43 73 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30
Waynesboro 30 61 34 70 44 68 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20
Camden 30 59 34 70 44 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 20
Crestview 32 62 35 71 43 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261-
262.
FL...None.
MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
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