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000
FXUS64 KMOB 271121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Scattered to broken mid-level clouds this morning
gradually dissipate and move off to the east, leaving mostly clear
skies for most through the period. Winds remain generally light
and out of the northwest. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Most of the ongoing mid-
level clouds this morning, associated with a passing upper trough,
should dissipate and move off to the east with the trough axis by
later this morning/afternoon. Near zonal mid/upper level flow
follows across our area today before transitioning to weak and
broad troughing as another shortwave drops down from the upper
Plains states to the Tennessee Valley region by tonight. This
pattern may bring back some occasional mid-level clouds throughout
the period, especially over the northern half of the forecast
area, but with dry northwesterly low/mid level flow around the
eastern periphery of surface high pressure centered over coastal
Texas, no precipitation is expected. Highs today reach the lower
50s north of Highway 84 and mid 50s south toward the coast. Lows
tonight still expected to be somewhat cold, ranging from lower 30s
over most of the interior, but mid 30s southward toward the I-10
corridor and upper 30s at the coast. This dry pattern continues
right into Friday, but with temperatures seeing a gradual warming
trend. Expect sunny skies and high temps in the low 60s. (12/49)

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Saturday night/...The 1028mb
surface high pressure area centered over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico will shift eastward across the northern gulf and deep south
through the short term. A weak surface trough northeast of the
surface high extending along the eastern seaboard and then southwest
to southern Mississippi will move quickly toward the southeast
Friday evening, allowing an associated weak surface boundary to slip
through the forecast area. Meanwhile, the large upper level trough
over the eastern conus will move eastward over the western Atlantic
by Saturday evening, followed by a weak upper ridge building over
the region Saturday night. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the
upper trough will keep dry conditions and clear across the area
through the short term, with perhaps a few high clouds moving in
from the west Saturday night. A light west to northwest wind flow
Friday night and Saturday, will shift to a light southerly flow
Saturday night. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the
low to mid 60s. Lows both Friday and Saturday nights will be in the
mid 30s to lower 40s, with mid 40s at the coast. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The ridge aloft that
built into the region over the weekend will slide east through the
day on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough. Ridging aloft will
allow the dry forecast to persist through the end of the weekend.
The dry forecast does not last long, unfortunately. Rain chances are
on the rise by early next week as southerly flow sets up ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. The best chance for rain showers on
Monday is generally confined to the areas north and west of I-65,
although we are not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall
on Monday. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
quickly eject to the northeast out of the Southern Plains. Large
scale ascent ahead of the trough will lead to measurable rain
spreading into the region. Some of the models continue to show a
more robust shortwave and are still indicating that the low level
jet will strengthen as it moves over the region on Wednesday. For
now, given the low level jet strength and increasing instability, we
kept the mention of thunder in the grids in the Tuesday night
through Wednesday timeframe. All eyes are currently on the local
rivers given the ongoing flooding in many spots and additional heavy
rainfall by mid-week could exacerbate flooding along those rivers.
This next event is a week away, so details will change, but we will
continue to closely monitor the progress of this system over the
next several days. 07/mb

MARINE...Moderate to strong northwest flow gradually diminishes
throughout the day today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
until Noon CST for southern Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and
unprotected Gulf waters out 60 nm. Light to occasionally moderate
northwest winds are then expected tonight into Friday morning
before strengthening once again late Friday afternoon. Another
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for unprotected Gulf waters
Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds diminish again Saturday
and shift to southerly by Sunday as high pressure builds east of
the area. Moderate onshore flow then prevails Sunday into early
next week, with winds potentially returning to advisory levels by
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ631-632-650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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