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000
FXUS64 KMOB 291123
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period,
although some patchy fog is possible late tonight. In addition, a
few showers or storms may develop this afternoon near the coast
with localized MVFR conditions. Light northwesterly winds
increase to 5 to 10 knots today, with a switch to the southwest
near the coast in the afternoon. Light and variable winds follow
for tonight. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

A Rex Block pattern over the eastern states weakens significantly
(and potentially breaks down) while beginning to move into the
western Atlantic through Tuesday. A rather broad shortwave trof (or
series of shortwaves) located mostly over Texas meanwhile progresses
into the north central Gulf. A weak and diffuse surface trof will be
located over the northern portion of the forecast area early this
morning (extending from a weakening surface low over the Carolinas)
and progresses to near this coast this afternoon, meeting with a
weak surface breeze boundary.  The diurnal land/sea breeze
circulation aids in the weak surface trof moving into the northern
Gulf tonight, then returns to near the coast Tuesday afternoon.
Despite the weakening/potential break down of the Rex Block along
with the broad shortwave trof advancing towards the area, deep layer
moisture only recovers modestly through Tuesday.  Cannot rule out
that a few showers or storms may develop near the coast this
afternoon and also Tuesday afternoon with daytime heating and the
presence of the weak boundary, but overall the pattern is weak with
limited convective potential.  Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for now through Tuesday.  Highs today range from the lower
80s well inland to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere, then highs on
Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s.  Lows tonight mostly range
from around 60 well inland to the mid 60s near the coast.  A low
risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Guidance is advertising an upper level shortwave trough moving
east over the northern Gulf coast, with the axis of the trough
becoming centered over the Southeast by Thursday morning. A weak
surface ridge stretching southwest over the Appalachians becomes
more organized as a surface trough off the East coast weakens. A
more organized east to southeast low level flow begins to move
Gulf moisture inland mid week as a result, though guidance varies
in strength of the return. The majority increase precipitable h20
levels into the 1.4"-1.6" range by Thursday morning. Guidance has
been inconsistent with the moisture return the last several days
as the upper trough approaches, with resultant PoPs varying.
Consensus with respect to PoPs is a Slight Chance for Wednesday
afternoon, so have went that direction for the current package.
The possibility of strong to marginally severe storms is low, with
guidance limiting SBCapes to 1500J/kg or less and DCapes to the
600-800J/kg range. Wind shear remains weak, with less than 20kts
of Bulk Shear advertised. Increased cloudiness will help to temper
daytime heating and night time cooling, limiting temperatures to
near seasonal norms. High temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90
expected Wednesday, with low 60s to near 70s for low temperatures
expected Tuesday and Wednesday nights. /16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

With decent moisture levels and an upper trough over the
Southeast at the beginning of the Extended, rain chances remain
the highest Thursday into Friday. The upper trough moves off and
an upper ridge begins to push east over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley into the weekend, with drier air beginning to move
southwest over the Southeast. Rain chances decrease through the
weekend as a result. Temperatures will rise to a bit above
seasonal norms in the coming weekend, with upper subsidence
increasing as the upper ridge approaches and moisture levels
slowly dropping.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

No impacts are anticipated through the period other than the
potential for gusty winds and higher seas near storms.  A light to
occasionally moderate onshore flow will develop during the day with
a light offshore flow at night through the middle of the week. A
light to moderate easterly flow follows for Thursday then becomes
east to northeast on Friday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  65  89  67  87  67  85  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10  40  10
Pensacola   85  68  87  69  85  69  81  70 /  10   0   0   0  10  20  40  20
Destin      85  70  86  72  85  71  82  71 /  10   0   0   0  10  20  40  30
Evergreen   86  60  87  63  89  64  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  20  20  40  20
Waynesboro  85  60  87  63  88  65  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  20  20  40  20
Camden      83  59  84  62  87  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0  20  20  40  20
Crestview   89  61  90  64  90  65  84  66 /  10   0   0   0  20  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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