Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 062014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
314 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...An upper trof over the eastern
third of the country will maintain a dry northwesterly upper flow
through the near term period, bringing only some occasional thin
high cirrus clouds. At the surface, another cold front, albeit dry,
will move across most of the forecast area area tonight, and then
move off the coast and out over the northern Gulf of Mexico by
Friday morning. Very little moisture will be available for this
frontal passage, with model PWATs just a little more than 0.5 inches
pre-frontal and well less than 0.5 inches post-frontal, so no
precipitation is expected. Dewpoint temperatures will drop into the
mid 40s to lower 50s in the wake of the front, which with the calm
winds and clear skies will allow low temperatures tonight to drop
into the low to mid 50s over inland areas and upper 50s to lower 60s
along the coast. Warming into the mid to upper 70s for most
locations on Friday, but with very low relative humidity it will
feel rather nice. /12


.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...The dry forecast
persists through much of the weekend, so enjoy the nice weather
while it lasts.

An upper level trough progresses east across the Northeast while a
ridge briefly builds into the Plains Friday night into Saturday. A
shortwave trough pivots across the Pacific Northwest through early
Saturday, causing the ridge to begin the process of breaking down
and flattening through the remainder of the weekend. As the ridge
flattens, the northwest flow aloft gradually turns zonal by Sunday.
The first of many subtle shortwaves will slide toward the region
late Sunday night into early Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface high builds overhead on Saturday morning before
sliding further east into the western Atlantic by Sunday. As the
high slides east, surface winds turn southerly through the day on
Saturday and the moist return flow returns to the area. PWATs
increase from a half inch to an inch as the return flow becomes
established on Saturday afternoon and increase to nearly 1.5 inches
by Sunday night. Despite the increasing return flow, both Saturday
and Sunday remain dry. That said, rain chances increase markedly
Sunday night into Monday morning as a cold front crosses the
Mississippi River and slowly moves into the Deep South. The bulk of
the rain associated with this feature will move into the area in the
extended timeframe.

As onshore flow sets up over the weekend, temperatures steadily
increase each day with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s by
Sunday afternoon. The rip current risk also increases to a MODERATE
by Sunday as onshore flow becomes established across the Gulf
waters. 07/mb


.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Zonal flow aloft
generally persists throughout the extended timeframe as a ridge over
the central portion of the CONUS continues to break down. A
shortwave trough pivots into the central half of the CONUS on
Tuesday and eventually slides into the Midwest by Thursday.
Meanwhile, a few subtle shortwaves ride through the zonal flow aloft
beneath the main upper level features to our north.

Flow at the surface remains onshore on Monday as the local area
remains on the western periphery of the surface high over the
western Atlantic. A surface low quickly lifts across the Northeast
on Monday morning and the associated cold front will sag into the
Deep South through the day on Monday. Some of the deterministic
model guidance stalls the front along the coast on Monday night
while other guidance slows the progression of the front further
north of the local area. Moisture will surge into the area on Monday
morning as onshore flow increases and PWATs increase into the 1.6-
1.8 inch range through the day. Given the subtle shortwave sliding
through the region, the nearby front, and the possibility of the low
level jet increasing through the day on Monday, there will plenty of
forcing and moisture for another round of heavy rain to move into
the area through the day. The area stays moist through at least mid-
week as the fire hose of high PWATs remains situated overhead. Rain
remains in the forecast through mid-week as more weak shortwaves
ride through the zonal flow aloft. A wave of low pressure develops
along the coast in the northwestern Gulf on Wednesday and lifts
northeast throughout the day. As this surface low approaches the
region, the stalled front lifts north as a warm front. These
features will quickly slide east of the region through the day on
Thursday and we will finally begin to dry out. 07/mb


.MARINE...A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail over the
marine area through the end of the week as high pressure builds
toward the northern Gulf Coast. A light to moderate east to
southeast flow will develop on Saturday, followed by a return of
southerly flow Saturday night into Sunday, becoming more
southwesterly then northwesterly by late Monday as the front moves
across the marine area. Little change in seas expected through the
period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected through
the forecast period. /12


AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.



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