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000
FXUS64 KMOB 230453 AAD
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period, although some light fog will be possible late Tuesday
evening. Light and variable winds tonight become southeasterly 5
to 10 knots by late Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 934 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Have updated to make some modest adjustments, mainly for
temperature trends overnight and to add some cloud cover due to
some cirriform clouds over the area. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
South to southwest winds initially at 5 to 10 knots become light
this evening, then transition to a southeasterly flow 5 to 10
knots by late Tuesday morning. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper-level ridge pushes east
across the southeastern CONUS through the near term as surface high
pressure builds into the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf. The
resulting pattern will support a gradual return of Gulf moisture
back into the local area as southerly winds prevail in the low
levels. Meanwhile, subsidence beneath the upper ridge keeps skies
mostly clear and the forecast rain-free. Low temps tonight dip into
the low 50s across much of the area. Highs on Tuesday will be
similar to today, reaching the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s
to around 80 along the coast. /49

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Ridging will
persist across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
but ridge axis will be gradually shifting off the the east of the
area. With this, a more persistent low level southeasterly wind
flow will develop and bring increasingly abundant Gulf moisture
back into the region. By early Thursday, a shortwave trough over
eastern Texas will be approaching our area from the west. Late in
the day Thursday, and overnight, this upper trough and the associated
surface low/front will be moving east across our area. This will
bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is still
some uncertainty of exact timing and placement of surface features
as this system moves east between the models, but all generally
agree on likely PoPs for our area by Thursday evening. What
remains consistent with the guidance is the general strength of
the system, which is much weaker than the previous two systems.
Instabilities are enough (especially over southern half of our
forecast area) to support thunderstorms, but overall expected
dynamics/thermodynamics currently does not appear to support any
severe storms. We will continue to monitor evolution of this
system and make adjustments accordingly. Mild temperatures are
expected, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s Tuesday through
Thursday. Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for the most part, but a few locations reaching mid 80s
quite possible. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Still a good chance for
lingering showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday,
especially during the morning and early afternoon hours and
primarily over northern and eastern areas. By late afternoon and
into Friday evening, rain chances will be diminishing as the
weather system moves off to the east of our forecast area. High
pressure builds Saturday and Sunday and persists across the area
through Monday. High temperatures on Friday in the mid to upper
70s, and then in the low to mid 80s across most of the region
(except for upper 70s at the coast) Saturday through Monday. Lows
Friday night and Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 50s to
the lower 60s across the region. 12/DS

MARINE...Generally light onshore flow continues through midweek
before strengthening on Thursday ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. A cold front pushes through Friday morning and
brings a moderate offshore flow Friday night. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this front
Thursday into Friday. A generally light east to southeast wind
flow then sets up Saturday and persists into early next week. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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