Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 242156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
356 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...Nearly zonal flow aloft
will persist across the region through Thursday. At the surface,
winds will shift more toward the southwest late tonight ahead of a
weak cold front approaching the forecast area from the northwest.
The front will then advance further southward Thursday morning and
then stall in a west-east oriented fashion (hanging up in the near
zonal flow aloft) about halfway through the forecast area by
Thursday afternoon. A couple of weak shortwave impulses embedded
within the zonal flow pattern aloft will move across our forecast
area late tonight into Thursday. Weak ascent associated with these
features and weak moisture return pooling up along the stalled
frontal boundary may aid in the development of a few light rain
showers across our northwestern zones late tonight and into
Thursday. With the low level moisture continuing late tonight into
Thursday morning, there is again a good signal for fog development
in the models and conditions would suggest it to be a little more
pronounced over southern and eastern portions of our forecast area
during that time. We have maintained patchy fog wording in the
forecast for now, and may have to consider possible Dense Fog
Advisories for at least portions of the southern half of the
forecast area for late tonight into early Thursday morning. Milder
temperatures will return tonight ahead of the front, with lows
ranging in the 50s. Temperatures on Thursday will again be well
above seasonal norms, with highs ranging in the low to mid 70s
across the region. The rip current risk is LOW through Thursday.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...After a nice
dry start to the week rain chances will be on the up. The upper
level pattern is a snooze fest compared to a week ago with rather
zonal flow aloft sandwiched between a strong high to our south and
weak troughing over northern Canada. A weak positively tilted
shortwave will be the only ripple of note as it progresses east
across the Tennessee valley on Friday. At the surface, large high
pressure will slowly drift off the east coast and into the western
Atlantic by Friday bringing southerly surface return flow back to
the area. This will allow for low level moisture to increase.
Thursday night will be dry but that will change come Friday as a
weak surface boundary assoicated with the upper shortwave will
slowly wander its way south. With the slow and steady surge of
moisture interacting with the weak shortwave, rain chances will
increase on Friday. The push behind the front will be rather
pathetic and the boundary will likely stall north of the area
potentially making it to the highway 84 corridor if it is lucky.
This will keep the best rain chances along and north of highway 84
on Friday. As the upper shortwave moves off to the east,
shortwave ridging will build on Saturday as a trough begins to dig
into the western US.

Temperatures will be mild throughout the whole period with
southerly flow dominating the period. Highs will be in the low 70s
on Friday increasing to the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Lows
will begin to return to what we are more accustomed too as the
soupy humid air returns. Lows will be in the upper 50s on Thursday
and Friday night increasing to the low 60s by Saturday. A low risk
of rip currents continues through the period. BB/03


.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The forecast will
become a little more messy as we finish the weekend and head into
the next work week. The stalled/slow moving boundary will become
the focus for several wet days throughout the period. A lot of
the same players are in place with mainly westerly to
occasionally southwesterly flow aloft. Several shortwaves are
expected to progress through the pattern leading to several rounds
of possible precipitation. With each passing shortwave, the
surface front will continue to inch further south. The best chance
of rain will be on Monday, as the strongest of the shortwaves and
moves through. The front will likely be draped across from west
to east across our area and with southerly surface flow riding up
and over the boundary rain seems increasingly likely on Monday.
Now models diverge a bit here as some hold the front up over the
area, while others take it further south offshore. Models also
differ with some guidance bringing one last shortwave on Tuesday
night into Wednesday. For this period I leaned a little more on
the ensemble guidance which has some rain but until confidence
increases and a more discernible trend can be see chance pops
will likely remain through the period. Temperatures will be warm
through the period with highs in the 70s Sunday and Monday before
decreasing once the front passes south on Monday. BB/03


.MARINE...A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through
Friday as a frontal boundary lingers to the north over the
interior southeast states with high pressure ridging in from the
east over the Gulf. The light onshore flow will increase over the
weekend, likely reaching SCEC levels (15 to 20 knots) over the Gulf
waters. Patchy late night and early morning marine fog will impact
bays, sounds, and near shore Gulf waters through at least early
Saturday, and could be locally dense with visibility below 1
nautical mile. /12




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