Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000 FXUS63 KMPX 090436 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1136 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across much of the area, exceptions being diurnal cu across the southeast portion of the area and some mid/high clouds and accas (with perhaps some sprinkles reaching the surface) out west. The frontal boundary extending from eastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota will grudgingly move east through the period, getting a better push on Thursday as the shortwave trough currently over Saskatchewan and Montana moves by to our north. Ample instability for convection will be in place into Thursday, but the best focus for SHRA/TSRA looks to be to our north and west through at least this evening, with better chances south and east across the remainder of our area on Thursday. Shear looks to be best to our northwest, but there should be sufficient shear for multi-cell clusters and perhaps some bowing segments later tonight with whatever activity is able to develop. High freezing levels should preclude large hail in the absence of any supercell structures, but winds would certainly be a concern with storms through early Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Generally progressive large scale flow will occur through the period, with a bit of a cooldown through the weekend as northwest flow develops in the wake of Thursday`s shortwave and surface frontal passage. We`ll then see ridging work in from the west early next week as an upper trough moves into western Canada and the Pacific northwest. Guidance is actually in fairly good agreement on the large scale pattern, with differences in deterministic solutions (and spread in ensemble systems) not becoming too dramatic until midweek when there are differences in how zonal the upper flow will become over the northern CONUS. Didn`t make any significant changes to the consensus NBM guidance, but could certainly see the need to increase temperatures some next week depending on the position and amplitude of the upper ridge as well as how much and how quickly it flattens. We`ll see a chance for SHRA/TSRA late Friday and Saturday as we see some return flow bring better low-level theta-e values back into the area. The next chance of widespread precipitation looks to hold off until Monday afternoon and Monday night when a wave looks to move along the frontal boundary as it slowly slides east through the region. It is at that point when guidance starts to diverge, so there is quite a bit of spread in the position of the front and how quickly it moves through the area (or if it moves through). As a result, some chance PoPs cover much of the forecast from Monday night onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Generally VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms. These storms should weaken as they move eastward overnight, but could see some redevelopment on Thursday, especially east of I-35. KMSP... Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could have some thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now the best chance is around mid-day. Winds should become northwesterly. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt. SAT...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt. SUN...VFR. Wind VRB at 05 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JRB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.